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[IFX Darika]

Euro Drops Against Pound; Rises Against Other Majors

The European currency rose against its Swiss, Japanese and US counterparts during Monday's early Asian trading. But the single currency traded lower against the pound, as the latter gained across the board as house prices in UK improved in March.

The euro that closed Friday's North American session at 0.9240 against the UK currency edged lower to 0.9199 in early Asian deals on Monday. The next downside target level for the single currency is seen around 0.897.

The average asking price for a home in Great Britain moved up 0.9 percent to ?218,081 in March compared to the previous month, property Web site Rightmove said today. That marked the second month in a row of increase following the 1.2 percent gain in February.

Against the yen, the euro bounced back after trading lower during Monday's early Asian trading. The euro thus strengthened from 125.57 to 127.16 by about 9:55 pm ET. The pair that was worth 126.69 at Friday's New York session close is now trading at 126.62.

The euro rose from a 4-day low of 1.2836 against the US dollar during Monday's early Asian trading. The euro hit a high of 1.2923 against the buck by about 9:55 pm ET, compared to 1.2929 hit late Friday in New York.

Across the Atlantic, the US empire manufacturing survey for March, net long-term TIC flows for January, NAHB housing market index, industrial production and capacity Utilization for February are due out in the New York session.

The common currency reached 1.5351 against the Swiss franc by about 1.5352 by about 10:55 pm ET Sunday, climbing from its early low of 1.5290. The euro-franc pair that rose to a new multi-month high of 1.5403 on Friday closed the day's deals at 1.5326.

German import price index, Italian February CPI, Euro-zone fourth quarter employment and February month CPI report are the major economic releases scheduled for the upcoming session.

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[IFX Darika]

German Economic Sentiment Rises, Beating Expectations

German economic sentiment improved in March defying economists' expectations, as the European Central Bank resumed interest rate cut and commodity prices decrease, a closely watched survey of financial experts revealed Tuesday.

The Mannheim-based Centre for European Economic Research, or ZEW, said its economic sentiment indicator for Germany rose 2.3 points to minus 3.5 in March, the highest since July 2007. It also marked the fifth consecutive month of increase. Economists had forecast a decline to minus 8 from minus 5.8 recorded in the previous month. However, the indicator is still below its historical average of 26.2.

The ZEW said the indicator's upward movement, which was very dynamic during the last four months, slowed down in March. However, the improvement strengthens the impression that experts are more hopeful with respect to the economic development in Germany on a six months time horizon.

In March, the ECB lowered its key interest rate by half a percent to a record low of 1.5% after keeping the rate on hold at 2% in February. The ECB has now cut its rate by a cumulative 275 basis points since early October 2008.

ZEW President Wolfgang Franz said, "According to the financial market experts, the economic slowdown is gradually phasing out. The bottom of the recession is likely to be reached this summer. The economic situation is extremely bad, but there are first signs of hope. They should not be played down."

According to Simon Junker, an analyst at the Commerzbank, the rise in the economic sentiment suggests that analysts increasingly see an improvement coming in the present disastrous state of the economy in the second half of the year.

Similar to previous months, the current economic situation indicator for Germany dropped to minus 89.4 from minus 86.2, while the consensus forecast was minus 90.

"After past week's miserable figures on order intake and production in the manufacturing sector, the decline of the assessment component is not surprising. Instead - as is usual in recessions - it is approaching the lower," Junker said.

Last week, Germany's Federal Ministry of Economics and Technology had said that industrial production in January declined the most since the reunification of Germany in 1990 and new orders tumbled on a seasonally adjusted annual basis.

The Commerzbank analyst stated, "GDP, will contract sharply in the current quarter and a decline is also likely in the second quarter. The economy is only set to grow again towards the end of the year, although probably by not enough to stop the rise in unemployment."

In the fourth quarter, the largest Eurozone economy experienced the biggest sequential contraction since the reunification in 1990 on plunging exports. The economy shrank 2.1% sequentially in the fourth quarter, after contracting 0.5% in the third quarter.

Further, the ZEW said its economic expectation indicator for Eurozone increased by 2.2 points to minus 6.5. The indicator for the current economic situation in Eurozone rose 0.3 points to minus 90.7.

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News are provided by InstaForex in partnership with RTT.

 

[IFX Svetlana]

European Economics Preview: Swiss External Trade Data Due.

(RTTNews) - Thursday, only major statistical reports due for the day are Switzerland's external trade balance and UK's Public sector finances.

At 3.15am ET, the Swiss trade balance for February is due. The trade deficit stood at CHF 1.99 billion in January. Exports were up 6.7% month-on-month in January and imports rose 0.8%.

Thereafter, the Italian statistical office is scheduled to issue the external trade data for January at 5.00am ET. The trade deficit is forecast to widen to EUR 2.47 billion from EUR 411 million in December.

At 5.30am ET, the Office for National Statistics is expected to release UK's public sector finance data. Public sector net cash requirement is seen at GBP 4.5 billion in January compared to minus GBP 25.1 billion in the prior month.

At the same time, the Bank of England is set to report M4 money supply. Money supply is forecast to rise 1.4% month-on-month in February, down from 2.5% in January.

At 6.00am ET, Swiss ZEW survey is due. The Swiss expectations index stood at minus 57.7 in February.

Afterwards, the Confederation of British Industry is scheduled to release Industrial Trends survey at 7.00am ET.

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News are provided by InstaForex in partnership with RTT.

 

[IFX Darika]

Europe Roundup - British Manufacturers' Output Expectations Weakest Since 1980

Thursday, the scene remained relatively calm in the Eurozone. Outside the euro region, survey data showed that UK manufacturers' output expectations weakened to a level last seen in September 1980. Elsewhere, the Central Bank of Iceland lowered its policy rate for the first time since the crisis-hit country agreed a US$10 billion financial aid with the International Monetary Fund.

Eurozone

There remains room for the European Central Bank to make further interest rate cuts, Governing Council Member Guy Quaden said in an interview with Belgium's Trends-Tendances magazine. "Unlike other central banks we have not completely exhausted our margin for maneuver on interest rates," the policymaker said.

Italy's statistical office ISTAT announced that the total trade deficit stood at EUR 3.59 billion in January, widening from EUR 0.41 billion deficit in the previous month. Economists had predicted a deficit of EUR 2.48 billion.

The Netherlands Central Bureau of Statistics announced that the consumer confidence stood at minus 34 in March, down from minus 30 in February. Economists had predicted the index to decline to minus 32. The office also reported that the jobless rate stood at 4.1% in the December to February period, up from 3.9% recorded in the November to January period. Economists had expected the jobless rate to rise to 4%.

Ireland's Central Statistical Office said that the manufacturing price index rose 3.9% year-over-year in February, larger than the 3.2% rise recorded in the previous month.

The National Statistical Service of Greece said the jobless rate stood at 7.9% in the fourth quarter, up from 7.2% rise seen in the previous quarter. A year ago, the jobless rate was 8.1%.

The Statistical Service of the Republic of Cyprus said the country's gross domestic product or GDP in real terms rose at a pace of 3.7% in 2008, slower than a 4.4% increase in 2007. The agency also announced that the industrial turnover index rose 8.7% year-on-year in December, faster than a 3.2% rise seen in the previous month.

The Statistical Office of the Republic of Slovenia said the seasonally adjusted consumer confidence indicator rose one percentage point in March from February. This was mainly due to an increase in consumer's assessment about the possibility of saving in the next 12 months.

The National Bank of Belgium said in a report that the consumer confidence indicator stood at minus 24 in March, at the same level seen in the previous month. A year ago, the index was minus 3.

Rest of Europe

The latest monthly Industrial Trends survey of the Confederation of British Industry found that only 8% of UK firms expect their production volume to increase in coming three months, while 56% said they would fall. Thus, a resulting balance of minus 48% expects output volume to decline over the coming three months, slightly weaker than minus 44% recorded in the previous month. The survey revealed that around 51% of firms reported below normal export order book levels, which was the lowest since 1998. Nearly 10% of manufacturers intend to reduce domestic prices in the coming three months.

UK's gross mortgage lending declined 15% month-on-month to an estimated GBP 9.9 billion in February, the Council of Mortgage Lenders said. Compared to the previous year, it was a fall of 60% and the value was the lowest monthly lending since February 2001.

In the UK, the public sector net cash requirement was GBP 4.4 billion in February, higher than the net cash requirement of GBP 1.6 billion in the previous year, a report by the Office for National Statistics said. Economists expected a net cash requirement of GBP 4.5 billion.

The Bank of England said in a report that the money supply increased 18.8% year-over-year in February, larger than the 17.4% rise recorded in the previous month. On a monthly basis, money supply rose 1.4% in February, slower than the 2.4% rise in the preceding month. The money supply growth came in line with economists' expectation.

The Icelandic central bank cut its key interest rate by 100 basis points to 17% from a record high of 18%, where it had remained since October 2008. The Sedlabanki also announced that more steps would be put in place over the next few months for the restructuring of the country's crushed financial system.

Switzerland's economic expectations improved slightly in March from the previous month, results of the latest financial market test carried out by the Centre for European Economic Research, or ZEW, in cooperation with Credit Suisse revealed. The ZEW said its economic sentiment indicator marked a slight increase of 0.6 points to the minus 57.1 mark in March. The measure for current economic situation in Switzerland continued to worsen in March. The respective indicator shed 11.8 points to reach minus 57.1 mark.

The Federal Administration of Customs said the Swiss trade surplus in February declined to CHF 731 million from CHF 1.98 billion in January. Exports dropped 3.7% month-on-month in real terms, taking the annual fall to 16.3% in February. Switzerland's watch exports continued to drop for the fourth straight month in February as demand slows, the Federation of the Swiss Watch Industry FH said. The value of watch exports plunged 22.4% year-on-year in February to CHF 1.0 billion. This is the second consecutive fall of this magnitude and the fourth consecutive month of decline.

Statistics Sweden said the jobless rate increased by 1.9 percentage points to 8% in February from last year. Economists expected the rate to come in at 7.4%.

Hungary's Central Statistical Office announced that the average gross earnings increased 5.2% year-over-year in January, larger than the 4.6% rise recorded in the previous month. The average gross earnings growth came in line with economists' expectation.

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Copyright(c) 2009 RTTNews.com, Inc. All Rights Reserved

News are provided by InstaForex in partnership with RTT.

 

[IFX Darika]

Swedish krona drops from new multi-week high against dollar

After rising to near a 7-week high, the Swedish currency edged down against its U.S. counterpart in early trading on Tuesday. The Swedish krona that rose to 7.9176 against the buck by 2:45 am Eastern Time, reversed direction thereafter and dropped as low as 8.0737 before leveling off towards the mid-morning. The greenback-krona pair that was worth 7.9733 at Monday's North American close is currently trading near 8.042.

The Swedish currency lost ground after the Statistics Sweden announced that the producer price index or PPI rose 3.4% year-over-year in February, slower than the 3.9% increase in the previous month. The February inflation came in line with economists' expectation. Month-on-month, producer prices dropped 0.2% in February, in contrast to a 0.9% rise in the previous month.

Export price index rose 5.5% year-on-year in February, compared with a 5.8% rise in the previous month. At the same time, import prices rose 0.1% versus 1.1% rise in January.

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Copyright(c) 2009 RTTNews.com, Inc. All Rights Reserved

News are provided by InstaForex in partnership with RTT.

 

[IFX Svetlana]

Yen Extends Downtrend As Equities Advance.

(RTTNews) - Thursday, the Japanese yen extended its yesterday's downtrend against other major currencies as a surge in global stocks increased investors risk appetite and thus hurts low-yielding currencies. The yen plunged to a new multi-month low against the kiwi and 2-day lows against the euro, the franc, the aussie and the loonie.

Strong equity markets are a signal that worries about the global recession are diminishing, which encourages carry trade and underpins high yielding currencies such as the New Zealand and Australian dollars.

The stock market in Japan ended higher today, on speculation that concerted efforts initiated by the central banks as well as governments will succeed in pulling out the global economy out of recession sooner-than-expected. Positive data from the U.S. related to durable-goods orders and new home sales and higher closing in Wall Street on Wednesday further raised speculation that the global economy might have bottomed out. Buying interest is evident in the markets as pessimism gives way for faint hope as Nikkei 225 Index gained more than 22% since reaching the 26-year low earlier in the month

The benchmark Nikkei 225 Index rose 156.34 points or 1.8% to 8,636, and the broader Topix Index of all the First Section issues gained 1% or 8.32 points to 827. The market, after opening weaker and sliding down on profit taking, recovered in mid-morning trades, continued to trade in a narrow range in afternoon and surged in the last hour to close near the day's high on strong buying interest from investors.

On the economic front, the Bank of Japan said that corporate service prices in Japan were down 2.6% year-over-year in February. Forecasts called for a 2.5% year-over-year drop after the 2.2% annual decline in January. On a monthly basis, corporate service prices inched higher by 0.2%.

The yen declined to 98.27 against the dollar during early deals on Thursday. This may be compared to yesterday's close of 97.53. On the downside, 98.6 is seen as the next target level for the Japanese currency.

In early trading on Thursday, the yen slumped to a 2-day low of 133.49 against the euro. The next downside target level for the yen is seen at 134.5. The euro-yen pair was worth 132.50 at Wednesday's close.

The German GfK consumer confidence report for April, French March consumer confidence index, Italian March business confidence and trade balance data for February, Euro-zone M3 money supply for February, which were released today likely influenced the euro.

The yen that closed yesterday's trading at 141.93 against the pound fell to 143.61 in early deals on Thursday. If the yen weakens further, it may find near term support around the 145.1 level.

UK's retail sales dropped 1.9% in February from the previous month, while economists were expecting a monthly 0.4% decrease. From the previous year, retail sales volume rose 0.4% in February, which was the lowest growth since September 1995. Annual growth stood below 2.5% increase expected by economists.

During early deals on Thursday, the yen declined to a 2-day low of 87.63 against the Swiss franc. If the yen falls further, it may likely target the 87.75 level. At yesterday's North American session close, the franc-yen pair was quoted at 87.02.

Against the currencies of Australia and Canada, the yen dropped to a 2-day low of 68.98 and 80.11 during early deals on Thursday. The next downside target level for the Japanese currency is seen at 69.6 against the aussie and 80.7 against the loonie. The aussie-yen and the loonie-yen pairs were worth 68.07 and 79.22, respectively at yesterday's close.

The Reserve Bank of Australia says the nation's banking system is one of the world's strongest, and is well-positioned to weather the global economic crisis. In its semi-annual Financial Stability Review issued today in Sydney, the RBA notes that that while the global financial system continues to experience "significant stress," the Australian Banking system "has performed well over recent times.

On the economic front, the Conference Board's Leading Economic Index for Australia registered a decline of 0.6 percent decline in January. The Board's Coincident Index increased 0.6 percent for the period.

In early trading on Thursday, the yen tumbled to 56.98 against the New Zealand dollar. This set the lowest point for the yen since November 11, 08. On the downside, 61.6 is seen as the next target level for the yen.

New Zealand posted a current account deficit of NZ$16.1 billion for the full year ending in December 2008, according to data released today by Statistics NZ. The deficit amounted to 8.9 percent of GDP. The agency said the deficit grew from NZ$15.5 billion for the year to September 2008, which represented 8.6 percent of GDP. The deficit for the full year to December 2007 was NZ$14.4 billion or 8.2 percent of GDP.

Traders now look forward to the New York session, in which the US Bureau of Economic Analysis is due to release its final fourth quarter GDP report at 8:30 am ET. The report is likely to show that the U.S. economy contracted by a 6.6% rate in the quarter.

At the same time, the Labor Department is due to release its customary weekly jobless claims report for the week ended March 21st.

Various Fed officials are scheduled to speak today. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner is scheduled to testify on financial regulation reform before House Financial Services Committee in Washington at 10 am ET.

Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Richard Fisher is due to speak to students as part of the ninth annual Redefining Investment Strategy Education Forum at the University of Dayton at 12 pm ET.
Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Jeffrey Lacker is scheduled to be the keynote speaker for the 2009 Economic Outlook Conference and luncheon of the Charleston Metro Chamber of Commerce, in Charleston, South Carolina at 12:40 pm ET, while Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Gary Stern would speak at a luncheon of the Economic Club of Minnesota in Minneapolis on "Better Late Than Never: Addressing Too-Big-To-Fail" at 1 pm ET.

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Copyright(c) 2009 RTTNews.com, Inc. All Rights Reserved

News are provided by InstaForex in partnership with RTT.

 

[IFX Darika]

Greenback Stable Versus Other Majors Wednesday Morning

The dollar was in a holding pattern versus other major currencies Wednesday morning in New York, pausing from a recent downtrend against its European counterparts.

Wall Street was set for a lackluster open Wednesday after President Barack Obama said last night in a televised press conference that he saw "signs of progress" on the economic front.

"We will recover from this recession," Obama said. "But it will take time, it will take patience."

Trading on Wednesday could be impacted by the release of reports on durable goods orders and new home sales. Fuel supplies figures are also due out. Traders are also likely to keep an eye on speeches from Fed Presidents Janet Yellen and Sandra Pianalto.

A day after taking heat from Congress about the AIG bailout fiasco, Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner will talk about the economic and financial crises at the Council on Foreign Relations in New York.

The dollar was slightly firmer versus the euro Wednesday morning, rising a penny to 1.3500. With the modest advance the dollar continued to stabilize following last week's big losses.

Wednesday, a monthly survey from the Munich-based Ifo Institute for Economic Research showed that German business confidence deteriorated to 82.1 in March from 82.6 in February. This was the lowest reading since the survey began in 1991. The expected level for March was 82.2.

The dollar consolidated its efforts to steady versus the resurgent sterling Wednesday morning, holding near 1.4580 as preparations for next week's G20 meeting in London were underway.

Against the yen, the dollar was stable at 97.70, still unable to break up the elusive 100 mark. The Bank of Japan is placing its policy priority on securing market stability and facilitating corporate financing, given the current uncertain economic situations, the central bank's Deputy Governor Hirohide Yamaguchi said Wednesday.

China's central banker chief Zhou Xiaochuan on Tuesday repeated his call for a new global reserve currency managed by the International Monetary Fund.

Pointing out the dangers of relying on the one national currency without explicitly mentioning the dollar, Zhou insisted that an international reserve currency disconnected from individual nations would be able to remain stable in the long run, thus removing the inherent deficiencies caused by using credit-based national currencies.

"The acceptance of credit-based national currencies as major international reserve currencies, as is the case in the current system, is a rare special case in history," said Zhou in a statement released on the People's Bank of China website.

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News are provided by InstaForex in partnership with RTT.

 

[IFX Svetlana]

European Economics Preview: Eurozone Industrial Orders Data Due.


(RTTNews) - Friday, Eurozone and Italian industrial orders data are due.

At 3.00am ET, the German import price report for January is due from the Federal Statistical Office. Following a 5.1% fall in December, import prices are forecast to fall 6% year-on-year in January. A monthly fall of 0.4% is expected for January.

Thereafter, a final quarterly national account is due from the French statistical office INSEE at 3.45am ET. The preliminary estimate showed a sequential contraction of 1.2% in the fourth quarter GDP. The statistical office is expected to confirm the initial estimate.

At 5.00am ET, the Italian statistical office ISTAT is slated to release industrial orders for January. Economists forecast orders to drop 4.5% month-on-month in January, after decreasing 2% in December.

Half an hour later, UK's fourth quarter GDP and current account reports are expected from the Office for National Statistics. The current account deficit is estimated to decline to GBP 5.9 billion from GBP 7.7 billion in the third quarter.

According to an earlier estimate, the British economy contracted 1.5% sequentially in the fourth quarter of 2008 and dropped 1.9% annually. Economists expect the ONS to maintain its initial estimate.

At 6.00am ET, the Eurostat is scheduled to issue Eurozone industrial new orders for January. Industrial new orders are expected to plunge 28.4% in January from the previous year versus 22.3% decrease in December.

At 6.30am ET, the Swiss KOF leading indicator is due. The index reading is seen at minus 1.55 in March compared to minus 1.41 in February.

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Copyright(c) 2009 RTTNews.com, Inc. All Rights Reserved

News are provided by InstaForex in partnership with RTT.

 

[IFX Svetlana]

European Economics Preview: Eurozone Annual Inflation Forecast To Ease.

(RTTNews) - Tuesday, Eurozone CPI and German unemployment are the major statistical reports due for the day.At 2.00am ET, the Destatis is set to issue German ILO unemployment data for February. The jobless rate is seen at 7.4% in February, up from 7.3% last month.

At 2.45am ET, the French housing starts report is due. In three months to January, housing starts and housing permits had fallen 20.2% and 9.1%, respectively.

Afterwards, at 3.00am ET, the National Institute of Economic Research is scheduled to publish the results of monthly Swedish consumer and economic tendency survey. Consumer confidence in March is predicted to rise to minus 13.8 from minus 14.6 in February.

At 3.30 am ET, fourth quarter GDP data is due from Turkey and Denmark. In the meantime, Hungarian as well as Spanish current account reports are also expected.

The Labor Ministry is slated to release German unemployment for March at 3.55am ET. The jobless rate is forecast to rise to 8% in March from 7.9% in February. In March, the number of unemployed is expected to increase 52,000 in March compared to 40,000 in the prior month.

At 4.00am ET, the Italian statistical office is scheduled to release retail sales for January. After falling 1.9% in December, retail sales are forecast to drop 1% in January.

At 5.00am ET, Eurozone and Italian CPI reports are due. Eurozone CPI inflation is expected to slow to 0.7 % in March from 1.2% in February. Meanwhile, EU harmonized annual inflation in Italy is seen at 1.1% in March, down from 1.5% last month.

For comments and feedback: contact [email protected][/email
Copyright(c) 2009 RTTNews.com, Inc. All Rights Reserved

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