Fundamental Analisis By InstaForex

[IFX Svetlana]

Japan's Vehicle Production Drops Further In September.

Japan's vehicle production dropped 21.6% in September from a year earlier to 830,140 units, the Japan Automobile Manufacturers Association said Thursday. This represents the 12th consecutive month of decline in production.

At the same time, motorcycle production slipped 61% on a yearly basis to 45,646 units, reflecting the 25th consecutive month of decline.

Domestic sales of automobiles stood at 477,818 vehicles, up 0.2% from last year. However, exports dropped 35.7% to 396,163 units. Moreover, factory shipments of motorcycles stood at 40,512 units, down 28.4% from last year. Exports of motorcycles dipped 65.5% to 30,406 units.

For the first half of the fiscal year 2009, automobile production fell 33.5%, while motorcycle production declined 47.7% during the same period.

News are provided by InstaForex.

 

[jaing]

Japan's Vehicle Production Drops Further In September.

Japan's vehicle production dropped 21.6% in September from a year earlier to 830,140 units, the Japan Automobile Manufacturers Association said Thursday. This represents the 12th consecutive month of decline in production.

At the same time, motorcycle production slipped 61% on a yearly basis to 45,646 units, reflecting the 25th consecutive month of decline.

Domestic sales of automobiles stood at 477,818 vehicles, up 0.2% from last year. However, exports dropped 35.7% to 396,163 units. Moreover, factory shipments of motorcycles stood at 40,512 units, down 28.4% from last year. Exports of motorcycles dipped 65.5% to 30,406 units.

For the first half of the fiscal year 2009, automobile production fell 33.5%, while motorcycle production declined 47.7% during the same period.

News are provided by InstaForex.

tq.. Svetlana

 

[IFX Darika]

IMF Upgrades Asia's Growth Outlook

Thursday, the International Monetary Fund raised Asia's economic outlook saying that the region is rapidly rebounding from the depth of the global crisis.

In its latest regional economic outlook, the Washington-based IMF said it expects Asia's gross domestic product to grow 2.8% this year and by 5.8% next year. In May, the lender had forecast Asia's growth to decelerate to 1.3% in 2009 before rebounding to 4.3% in 2010. The new forecasts are short of the 6.7% average growth recorded over the past decade.

"The primary driver of Asia's recovery has been a progressive return towards normalcy following the abrupt collapse in global trade and finance at the end of 2008," the IMF report said. According to the report, the other key driver of Asia's recovery has been the region's rapid and forceful policy response.

"The "green shoots" of recovery appear more firmly rooted in Asia than in other regions," the report said. "Now Asia is leading as the world pulls out of recession."

While raising its world economic outlook on October 1, the IMF said the world economy is expected to grow 3.1% next year, more than the 2.5% growth forecast in July. The lender expects the Japanese economy to contract 5.4% this year and to grow by 1.7% next year. Australia's growth is forecast to touch 0.7% this year and 2% next year. New Zealand's economy is predicted to shrink 2.2% in 2009 and to expand by 2.2% next year.

China is likely to log the fastest growth in the region, 8.5% this year and 9% in 2010. India is set to follow, with growth projected at 5.4% in 2009 and at 6.4% next year. Meanwhile, South Korea's economy is predicted to shrink 1% before expanding by 3.6% next year.

At the same time, the IMF today revised its outlook for Singapore to show a 4.3% expansion in 2010 after a 1.7%contraction this year. In its world economic outlook, the organization had forecast Singapore GDP to rise 4.1% in 2010 after falling 3.3% this year.

The IMF said Asian policymakers consequently face two major challenges - to maintain policy stimulus until the recovery becomes self-sustaining and to devise a way to return to sustained, rapid growth in a new global environment. It also said Asia will need to be willing to live with smaller current account surpluses and more flexible exchange rate management. Moreover, it said output in the large G7 economies is forecast to grow by 1.3% next year, recouping only half the contraction estimated for 2009, because private demand in these countries remains constrained by the legacy of the crisis.

Asia's V-shaped recovery may be the sharpest on record and may turn into a square-root-shaped recovery soon, DBS Bank economist David Carbon said in a note on Wednesday. "That is, a sharp drop, a sharp rise, and then a palpable turn sideways." The DBS economist expects growth to be back to "normal" for most of the countries in the region by the first quarter of 2010.

Carbon also expects key central banks in the region to hike rates in the first quarter. The bank forecasts India to hike rates as early as January and South Korea in the first quarter. China is expected to start pushing rates up in the second quarter as well as allow its currency to appreciate against the U. S. dollar.

Earlier in the month, Australia became the first G-20 central bank to raise key interest rate after the global financial crisis. India's central bank became the second in the group to start exiting from an easy monetary policy, though it retained key interest rates.

News are provided by InstaForex.

 

[IFX Darika]

Dollar Fighting Back Versus Euro As Focus Turns To Fed

The dollar surged ahead versus the euro Tuesday morning in New York as the Federal Reserve prepared to meet amid growing anxiety that the economic growth seen over the summer may not be sustainable without continued support measures.

With the US consumer still on edge as unemployment approaches 10 percent, many analysts are pointing out that while the third quarter figures on the economy are somewhat encouraging, organic growth is unlikely until the jobs situation improves.

The safe haven dollar has managed recover versus the euro over the past week, prompting the rally in global equities to run out of steam.

The dollar jumped to a monthly high of 1.4623, rising more than a penny even as traders considered news that the European Commission expects the euro area economy to emerge from recession in the second half of 2009.

However, the economy is set to contract 4% for 2009 as a whole.

Joaquin Almunia, Commissioner for Economic and Monetary Affairs said, "The EU economy is coming out of recession. This owes much to the ambitious measures taken by governments, central banks and the EU that have not only prevented a systemic meltdown but have kick-started the recovery. However, the road ahead is a challenging one."

The dollar firmed up a bit versus the yen, moving back above the 90 mark. The pair has been choppy over the past few weeks, with the buck finding a measure of support after testing a 1995 low in October.

Meanwhile, the dollar was steady versus its Australian counterpart even after the RBA raised its interest rate for the second straight session. The dollar rose to .8920 versus the aussie, but leveled off to .8965 approaching 8 am ET.

In October, Australia became the first G-20 member nation to hike its benchmark interest rate since the onset of the financial crisis in late 2008.

The dollar hit a weekly high versus the sterling, rising to 1.6260 before hitting resistance. On a longer term basis, the pair has been moving between 1.5700 and 1.6700 for months.

All eyes will be on Washington, DC tomorrow as the Fed wraps up its latest policy meeting. While Ben Bernanke and company are universally expected to maintain the key interest rate near zero, traders will be paying close attention to the accompanying statement, looking to see whether rates will be left alone "for some time to come," as the central bank has recently assured.

Looking at today's economic calendar, the government is releasing September factory orders at 10 am ET. Economists are looking for a September gain of 1 percent.

News are provided by InstaForex.

 

[IFX Svetlana]

European Economics Preview: Eurozone Economy Forecast To Exit Recession.

Quarterly national account data from Germany, France and the Eurozone are due on Friday, headlining a hectic day for European economic news.

At 2:00 am ET, Germany's Federal Statistical Office is set to release third quarter GDP data. On a sequential basis, the economy is forecast to expand 0.8% in the third quarter, compared to the 0.3% growth in the previous quarter. The gross domestic product is expected to contract 4.8% on an annual basis, slower than the 5.9% decrease reported in the last quarter.

In the meantime, the GDP indicator for the month of September is due from Statistics Finland. In August, the GDP indicator had contracted 8.4% on a yearly basis. The statistical office is also slated to release consumer price data for October at the same time. Economists expect consumer prices to fall 0.8% year-on-year, following the 1% decrease in September. Manufacturing new orders data for September is also due at the same time.

At 2:45 am ET, consumer price figures are due from the French statistical office INSEE. The consumer price index is forecast to fall 0.2% annually in October, slower than the 0.4% decline in the previous month. The monthly inflation rate is seen at 0.1%. EU harmonized consumer prices are expected to fall 0.2% on a yearly basis but to rise 0.1% month-on-month in October.

Also due at the same time, is wage growth data from France. The wage growth rate is seen at 0.5% sequentially in the third quarter, after the 0.4% increase in the preceding quarter.

At 2:50 am ET, the French quarterly national accounts report is due. The French economy is tipped to expand 0.6% sequentially in the third quarter, faster than the 0.3% growth in the second quarter. On a yearly basis, the GDP is expected to shrink 1.9% following the 2.8% contraction in the last quarter.

At 3:00 am ET, third quarter's GDP results are due from the Czech Statistical Office. Economists expect the Czech economy to contract 4.7% annually, slower than the 5.5% decrease in the previous quarter. Retail sales figures for September are also due at the same time from the statistical office. Year-on-year, sales are expected to plunge 6%, faster than the 3.5% drop in the previous month.

Simultaneously, consumer price inflation figures are due from Spain's National Institute of Statistics. Economists expect the CPI to fall 0.6% year-on-year in October, compared to September's 1% fall. On a monthly basis, consumer prices are expected to rise 0.7%. Harmonized consumer prices, meanwhile, are forecast to remain unchanged from preliminary estimates at 0.6% annual decline.

Elsewhere, the Hungarian Central Statistical Office is scheduled to issue GDP data for the third quarter. The Hungarian economy is forecast to contract 6.6% annually, after the 7.5% shrinkage in the previous quarter. Also due at the same time from the statistical office, is final industrial production data for September.

Shortly later at 3:15 am ET, Switzerland's Federal Statistical Office is slated to release producer and import price data for October. Producer and import prices are tipped to fall 4.1% year-on-year in October, slower than the 4.9% decrease in the preceding month. The monthly producer and import price inflation rate is seen at 0.1%.

At 3:30 am ET, third quarter GDP results are due from the Netherlands' Central Bureau of Statistics. The Dutch economy is tipped to exit recession by expanding 0.3% sequentially in the third quarter, compared to the 1.1% decrease in the previous month. Year-on-year, the economy is expected to shrink 4.5%. Also due at the same time from the statistical office, are retail sales and trade balance statistics for September.

Meanwhile, the Statistics Sweden is scheduled to issue the third quarter industry capacity rate. The capacity utilization rate stood at 77% in the second quarter.

Half an hour later, gross domestic product data is due from the Italian statistical office ISTAT. The Italian economy is tipped to expand 0.8% sequentially in the third quarter, following the 0.5% decrease in the previous quarter. On a year-over-year basis, the GDP is expected to contract 4.5%, slower than the 6% fall in the second quarter. The Statistics Austria is also expected to release third quarter GDP results at the same time.

At 5:00 am ET, the Eurozone's third quarter GDP figures are due. The Eurozone economy is widely expected to exit recession and is forecast to expand 0.5% sequentially in the third quarter, rebounding from the 0.2% shrinkage in the last quarter. On a yearly basis, the GDP is expected to fall 3.9%, following the 4.8% drop in the second quarter.

Afterwards at 8:00 am ET, consumer price inflation figures are due from the Polish statistical office. The consumer price inflation rate is expected to ease to 3.2% year-on-year in October from 3.4% in September. Simultaneously, money supply data for October is due from the Polish central bank. Month-on-month, M3 money supply is forecast to grow 1.1%, compared to the 0.9% increase in the previous month.

News are provided by InstaForex.

 

[bilusky]

Euro climbs to 16-day high against British pound
Wednesday, the European currency climbed to a 16-day high against the British pound. On the other hand, the euro slipped to a 6-day low versus the Swiss franc, while gained slightly from an early Asian session's new multi-month low against the yen and a new multi-week low versus the dollar.

The German Federal Statistical Office announced today that the producer price index or PPI rose 4.3% year-over-year in December, slower than the 5.3% recorded in the previous month. Economists had predicted an increase of 4.2%. On a monthly basis, the PPI dropped 1% in December, after falling 1.5% in November. Economists were looking for a decline of 1.2%.

The European currency gained ground against the US dollar after hitting a new multi-week low of 1.2848 during early Asian deals on Wednesday. The euro-dollar pair thus climbed to 1.3019 at 10:15 pm ET, compared to 1.2907 hit late New York Tuesday. Thereafter, the pair reversed its direction and is now worth 1.2935.

Against the British pound, the euro traded higher during Wednesday's early deals. At 4:30 am ET, the euro-pound pair reached a 16-day high of 0.9414, compared to Tuesday's closing value of 0.9269. If the pair gains further, 0.963 is seen as the next target level.

Bank of England policymakers stood divided while deciding to reduce the bank rate by 50 basis points to a record low in January, the minutes of the session revealed today. The minutes showed that the Monetary Policy Committee voted 8-1 on the 50 basis point reduction on January 8. The well-known dove of the rate setting body, David Blanchflower sought a 100 basis point reduction. Economists were expecting a unanimous vote.

In January's session, the MPC decided to reduce Bank Rate to 1.5% from 2%. This is the lowest rate since the central bank was established in 1694.

The Office for National Statistics or ONS reported today that the UK claimant count rate rose to 3.6% of the workforce in December from 3.3% in November. Economists were expecting the rate to rise to 3.5%.

UK's Office for National Statistics said today that the public sector net borrowing was GBP 14.9 billion in December 2008. This was GBP 7.5 billion higher net borrowing than in the previous year. Economists had expected the public sector to borrow GBP 10.5 billion.

The single currency that closed Tuesday's North American session at 1.4798 against the Swiss franc touched a 6-day low of 1.4742 at 5:00 am ET Wednesday. The next downside target level for the pair is seen around 1.472.

Against the Japanese yen, the euro declined to a new multi-month low of 115.32 during today's early Asian deals. Thereafter, the euro-yen pair reversed its direction and reached 117.22 before pulling back again. The pair is currently quoted at 116.16.

Japan's Cabinet office revealed today in a final report that the leading index declined to 81.3 in November from 85.2 in October. The November reading was revised down from the initial 81.5. A year ago, the leading index was at 94.2. Economists were looking a reading of 81.4 for November.

Across the Atlantic, the Energy Information Administration is scheduled to release its weekly petroleum inventory report at 10:30 AM ET today. The oil inventory report for the week ended January 9th showed that crude oil stockpiles rose by 1.2 million barrels to 326.6 million barrels. Crude oil inventories continued to be the above the upper limit of the average range.

The National Association of Homebuilders' is scheduled to release the results of their survey on homebuilders' confidence. Builder confidence remained at a record low in December, with the housing market index holding at its November lows of 9, as buyers feared to move forward and builders found it impossible to compete with the cut-rate product that is continually flooding the market from mounting foreclosures.

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Published: 2009-01-20 21:46:0

News are provided by InstaForex in partnership with RTT.

thanks........

 

[bilusky]

oh wow......

 

[bilusky]

European Economics Preview: Eurozone Economy Forecast To Exit Recession.

Quarterly national account data from Germany, France and the Eurozone are due on Friday, headlining a hectic day for European economic news.

At 2:00 am ET, Germany's Federal Statistical Office is set to release third quarter GDP data. On a sequential basis, the economy is forecast to expand 0.8% in the third quarter, compared to the 0.3% growth in the previous quarter. The gross domestic product is expected to contract 4.8% on an annual basis, slower than the 5.9% decrease reported in the last quarter.

In the meantime, the GDP indicator for the month of September is due from Statistics Finland. In August, the GDP indicator had contracted 8.4% on a yearly basis. The statistical office is also slated to release consumer price data for October at the same time. Economists expect consumer prices to fall 0.8% year-on-year, following the 1% decrease in September. Manufacturing new orders data for September is also due at the same time.

At 2:45 am ET, consumer price figures are due from the French statistical office INSEE. The consumer price index is forecast to fall 0.2% annually in October, slower than the 0.4% decline in the previous month. The monthly inflation rate is seen at 0.1%. EU harmonized consumer prices are expected to fall 0.2% on a yearly basis but to rise 0.1% month-on-month in October.

Also due at the same time, is wage growth data from France. The wage growth rate is seen at 0.5% sequentially in the third quarter, after the 0.4% increase in the preceding quarter.

At 2:50 am ET, the French quarterly national accounts report is due. The French economy is tipped to expand 0.6% sequentially in the third quarter, faster than the 0.3% growth in the second quarter. On a yearly basis, the GDP is expected to shrink 1.9% following the 2.8% contraction in the last quarter.

At 3:00 am ET, third quarter's GDP results are due from the Czech Statistical Office. Economists expect the Czech economy to contract 4.7% annually, slower than the 5.5% decrease in the previous quarter. Retail sales figures for September are also due at the same time from the statistical office. Year-on-year, sales are expected to plunge 6%, faster than the 3.5% drop in the previous month.

Simultaneously, consumer price inflation figures are due from Spain's National Institute of Statistics. Economists expect the CPI to fall 0.6% year-on-year in October, compared to September's 1% fall. On a monthly basis, consumer prices are expected to rise 0.7%. Harmonized consumer prices, meanwhile, are forecast to remain unchanged from preliminary estimates at 0.6% annual decline.

Elsewhere, the Hungarian Central Statistical Office is scheduled to issue GDP data for the third quarter. The Hungarian economy is forecast to contract 6.6% annually, after the 7.5% shrinkage in the previous quarter. Also due at the same time from the statistical office, is final industrial production data for September.

Shortly later at 3:15 am ET, Switzerland's Federal Statistical Office is slated to release producer and import price data for October. Producer and import prices are tipped to fall 4.1% year-on-year in October, slower than the 4.9% decrease in the preceding month. The monthly producer and import price inflation rate is seen at 0.1%.

At 3:30 am ET, third quarter GDP results are due from the Netherlands' Central Bureau of Statistics. The Dutch economy is tipped to exit recession by expanding 0.3% sequentially in the third quarter, compared to the 1.1% decrease in the previous month. Year-on-year, the economy is expected to shrink 4.5%. Also due at the same time from the statistical office, are retail sales and trade balance statistics for September.

Meanwhile, the Statistics Sweden is scheduled to issue the third quarter industry capacity rate. The capacity utilization rate stood at 77% in the second quarter.

Half an hour later, gross domestic product data is due from the Italian statistical office ISTAT. The Italian economy is tipped to expand 0.8% sequentially in the third quarter, following the 0.5% decrease in the previous quarter. On a year-over-year basis, the GDP is expected to contract 4.5%, slower than the 6% fall in the second quarter. The Statistics Austria is also expected to release third quarter GDP results at the same time.

At 5:00 am ET, the Eurozone's third quarter GDP figures are due. The Eurozone economy is widely expected to exit recession and is forecast to expand 0.5% sequentially in the third quarter, rebounding from the 0.2% shrinkage in the last quarter. On a yearly basis, the GDP is expected to fall 3.9%, following the 4.8% drop in the second quarter.

Afterwards at 8:00 am ET, consumer price inflation figures are due from the Polish statistical office. The consumer price inflation rate is expected to ease to 3.2% year-on-year in October from 3.4% in September. Simultaneously, money supply data for October is due from the Polish central bank. Month-on-month, M3 money supply is forecast to grow 1.1%, compared to the 0.9% increase in the previous month.

News are provided by InstaForex.

can i call u?

 

[IFX Darika]

Japanese Consumer Prices Fall Further, Unemployment Drops Unexpectedly

Consumer prices in Japan continued to fall at a rapid pace in October, official data showed on Friday, giving credence to the deflationary concerns of the government. However, a surprise decline in unemployment, along with household spending data put more of a positive, yet momentary, spin on things for the beleaguered economy.

Core consumer prices, which exclude fresh food from the price basket, dropped 2.2% in October from a year earlier, but slower than a 2.3% fall in the previous month, the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communication reported. Economists had expected a 2.4% decline. General consumer prices dropped 2.5% year-on-year in October, after a 2.2% fall in prices in each of the three preceding months.

On November 20, the Cabinet Office declared that the economy is in deflation, the first official announcement of deflation since mid-2006. In its monthly economic report for November, the government said, "Recent price developments show that the Japanese economy is in a mild deflationary phase." The report said the economy is picking up, but faces difficult situation such as a high unemployment rate.

Last week, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development warned against lingering deflation in the economy and said an increase in the central bank's bond purchases would help in battling deflation. According to the Bank of Japan's forecast in October, the CPI excluding fresh food, would fall 1.5% in fiscal 2009 and would drop 0.8% in fiscal 2010 and a 0.4% decline in fiscal 2011.

On a monthly basis, overall consumer prices dropped 0.4%, and excluding fresh food, prices fell 0.1%.

BNP Paribas economist Azusa Kato said that the slowing in the rate of decline in the core CPI was simply the result of a 'technical error', namely the waning base effect from surging petroleum product prices through August of last year. Excluding this, price deflation actually broadened in October, he pointed out.

Meanwhile, the CPI in the Tokyo area dropped 2.2% on year in November and fell 0.2% on a monthly basis. The core CPI fell 1.9% on a yearly basis, but slower than a 2.3% decline anticipated by economists. Month-on-month, core consumer prices were down 0.1%.

"Despite the economic recovery that has been driven by fiscal stimulus and rising exports to emerging economies, downward pressures on prices have hardly abated and the supply-demand gap remains quite large," Kato said. Even after the disappearance of techinical factors around February, BNP Paribas expects that a minus inflation rate of more than -1% should take root for a while, as deflationary expectations are taking hold at the consumer and corporate level.

On a more encouraging note for the economy, unemployment levels continued to fall against expectations. The unemployment rate stood at a seasonally adjusted 5.1% in October, down from 5.3% in the previous month, the Ministry of Internal Affairs & Communications reported. Economists had expected the unemployment rate to rise to 5.4%. The jobless rate declined for the third consecutive month.

The total number of unemployed persons declined to 3.36 million from 3.52 million. At the same time, the number of employed persons decreased to 62.44 million from 62.64 million in the prior month, while total labor force strength slid to 65.82 million from 66.19 million.

In other news, real household spending in Japan grew 1.6% year-on-year in October following the 1% increase in the previous month. Economists had expected real household spending to rise 0.7%.

Household spending excluding that on housing, purchase of vehicles, money gifts and remittance climbed 0.7%. Spending on medical care surged 11.4% annually in October, while spending on transportation & communication rose 4.7%. On the other hand, household spending on education declined 4.6%.

Spending among workers' households increased 0.6% from the previous year, the same rate of growth as in the preceding month. In nominal terms, total household spending dropped 1.3%.

Retail sales figures for October were also released on Friday, with sales falling 0.9% year-on-year to JPY 10.83 trillion in October, slower than the 1.3% decline in the preceding month. Economists had expected sales to drop 1.6%. This marks the fourteenth straight month in which retail sales have fallen on an annual basis.

"The outlook for consumption is not bright," BNP Paribas economist Hiroshi Shiraishi said. "Employee income, the key to consumption, is unlikely to improve anytime soon as businesses continue to cut costs in order to cope with chronically low operating rates." BNP Paribas expects GDP-based consumption, which increased at a solid pace in the second and third quarters to start to lose momentum from the final quarter of the year.

News are provided by InstaForex.

 

[IFX Darika]

Philippine Consumer Prices Continue To Rise In November

Philippines' consumer price inflation picked up in November driven by higher food, beverage and tobacco prices, official data showed on Friday.

The National Statistics Office said that consumer prices in the Philippines grew 2.8% year-on-year in November, faster than the 1.6% rise in the previous month. The headline inflation rate came in line with economists' expectations. Excluding selected food and energy items, the core inflation rate remained unchanged from October at 2.7%.

The latest increase in consumer prices was attributed to an acceleration in the inflation rate of the heavily weighted food, beverages & tobacco index, up 4.8% in November compared to the 3.7% increase in October. Prices of clothing increased 2.1%, while services prices and prices of miscellaneous items increased 0.2% and 1.9%, respectively. On the other hand, the fuel, light & water index slid 1.1%, slower than the 3.6% fall in the preceding month.

The annual inflation rate in the National Capital Region (NCR) grew 2% in November, adding to the 1.1% increase in October. This was brought about by the higher prices of clothing and slower rate of decline in the prices of fuel, light & water and services, the statistical office said.

In Areas Outside the National Capital Region (AONCR), consumer prices were up 3.1% on year, faster than the 1.9% increase in the prior month. This was mainly due to increases in the food, beverages & tobacco index, fuel, light & water index, and services index. Among the regions, annual inflation rate was highest in Cagayan Valley at 5.6%, while the lowest rate continued to prevail in Central Visayas at 1.7%.

On a monthly basis, consumer prices increased 0.6% on a national level in November, in line with expectations, and adding to the 0.6% growth in October.

The Philippine economy consolidated growth in the third quarter, rising 0.8% year-on-year, the same growth rate as in the second quarter. This compares to the 4.6% growth seen in the third quarter of last year.

News are provided by InstaForex.