Forex Fundamental & Technical Analysis By Capital Street FX

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Forex Markets Await Key US Data: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY & AUD/USD Show Mixed Signals.​

EUR/USD Consolidates Near Key Levels​

Market Overview:
The EUR/USD pair continues to trade within a narrow range around the 1.0375-1.0390 zone, struggling to maintain momentum after rebounding from the 1.0200 region—its lowest since January 13. Mixed fundamental factors, including US economic data and ECB policy decisions, are driving this consolidation.

Key Factors Influencing EUR/USD:​

• US Labor Market Data: The recent Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) signaled a cooling US labor market, reinforcing expectations of potential Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts.
• ECB’s Dovish Stance: Despite a rise in the Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) to 2.5% annually, the ECB’s dovish outlook limits bullish momentum.
• Geopolitical Concerns: Potential US tariffs on EU goods under former President Trump’s trade policies add to investor caution.

Technical Analysis:

​

• Current Price: 1.0375 – 1.0380
• Moving Averages:
  • Exponential (EMA): MA 10 (1.0388 – Bullish), MA 20 (1.0385 – Bullish), MA 50 (1.0440 – Bearish)
  • Simple (SMA): MA 10 (1.0411 – Bearish), MA 20 (1.0366 – Bullish), MA 50 (1.0411 – Bearish)
• RSI: 50.62 (Bullish Zone)
• Stochastic Oscillator: 50.14 (Neutral)
• Resistance Levels: R1: 1.0492, R2: 1.0576
• Support Levels: S1: 1.0220, S2: 1.0136

Trade Suggestion:

• Entry Point: Limit Buy at 1.0353
• Take Profit: 1.0468
• Stop Loss: 1.0293

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EUR/USD Near 1.0500, GBP/USD Holds Gains, JPY Under Pressure.​

The forex market remains cautious ahead of key economic data releases, with major currency pairs responding to shifting fundamentals. The EUR/USD pair hovers around the 1.0500 mark as the US Dollar gains momentum, while GBP/USD trades near a two-month high amid mixed signals from the Federal Reserve. Meanwhile, USD/JPY remains under pressure, with Bank of Japan (BoJ) rate hike expectations limiting losses. The AUD/USD pair declines slightly as the US Dollar remains firm ahead of key economic reports.

KEY HIGHLIGHTS ​

• EUR/USD holds near 1.0500 ahead of key PMI data.
• GBP/USD trades near two-month high amid market optimism.
• USD/JPY remains under pressure despite BoJ rate hike hopes.
• AUD/USD edges lower as US Dollar stays firm.

EUR/USD Holds Near 1.0500 Ahead of PMI Data​

The EUR/USD pair remains range-bound around 1.0500 in early European trading on Friday, weighed down by a stronger US Dollar. Traders exercise caution ahead of the preliminary Eurozone and US PMI releases, keeping the pair in consolidation mode.

Key Market Factors:​

• US Dollar Strength: A broad recovery in the US Dollar Index (DXY) has pressured the euro, with investors closely watching US economic data and Federal Reserve policy signals.
• Trade Policy Uncertainty: Recent delays in US tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports have created uncertainty, while tensions with China remain unresolved.
• Technical Analysis: The daily chart suggests a potential bearish reversal, with EUR/USD trading within a rising wedge pattern, signaling declining buying pressure.

Technical Overview:

​

• Moving Averages (Bullish Crossover)
• EMA 10: 1.0446 | EMA 20: 1.0422 | EMA 50: 1.0435
• RSI: 58.31 | Buy Zone | Neutral
• Stochastic Oscillator: 85.12 | Buy Zone | Neutral
• Support & Resistance Levels:
• R1: 1.0492 | R2: 1.0576
• S1: 1.0220 | S2: 1.0136

Trade Suggestion:​

Limit Buy: 1.0467 | Take Profit: 1.0534 | Stop Loss: 1.0431

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GBP/USD Trades Near Two-Month High Amid Fed Uncertainty​

GBP/USD remains resilient, hovering around 1.2670 after retreating slightly from its two-month high of 1.2674. A weaker US Dollar, combined with better-than-expected UK economic data, supports the pair.

Key Market Factors:​

• US Jobless Claims Data: The US Initial Jobless Claims rose to 219,000 (vs. 215,000 expected), weighing on the Dollar.
• Bank of England (BoE) Commentary: Governor Andrew Bailey warned of sluggish economic growth, but recent strong UK CPI data has supported Sterling.
• Trade Sentiment Boost: Optimism regarding US-China trade negotiations has also helped sustain GBP/USD at higher levels.

Technical Overview:

​

• Moving Averages (Bullish Crossover)
• EMA 10: 1.2577 | EMA 20: 1.2519 | EMA 50: 1.2517
• RSI: 63.85 | Buy Zone | Bullish
• Stochastic Oscillator: 93.94 | Buy Zone | Neutral
• Support & Resistance Levels:
• R1: 1.2538 | R2: 1.2650
• S1: 1.2174 | S2: 1.2062

Trade Suggestion:​

Limit Buy: 1.2628 | Take Profit: 1.2730 | Stop Loss: 1.2571


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EUR/USD Rebounds Above 1.0400 as US Dollar Weakens Post-PCE Data; Traders Eye Eurozone CPI. - 3/3/2025​

EUR/USD: Rebounds Above 1.0400 Ahead of Eurozone HICP Data​

EUR/USD breaks its three-day losing streak, climbing above 1.0400 in anticipation of key Eurozone inflation data. During Monday’s Asian session, the pair hovered around 1.0410, supported by a weaker US Dollar after the latest PCE inflation report aligned with expectations. The monthly headline PCE remained steady at 0.3%, while core PCE edged up to 0.3% from December’s 0.2%. However, rising US-China trade tensions may strengthen the USD as a safe-haven asset, potentially capping EUR/USD gains.

Additionally, Germany’s higher-than-expected February flash HICP inflation data provided some support to the Euro. However, the European Central Bank (ECB) is still expected to maintain its dovish stance in its upcoming policy meeting.

Technical Overview​

Moving Averages:​

• Exponential:
• MA 10: 1.0431 | Bearish
• MA 20: 1.0426 | Bearish
• MA 50: 1.0435 | Bearish
• Simple:
• MA 10: 1.0447 | Bearish
• MA 20: 1.0422 | Bearish
• MA 50: 1.0387 | Bullish

Indicators:​

• RSI: 48.69 | Neutral
• Stochastic Oscillator: 41.67 | Neutral

Resistance & Support Levels:​

• R1: 1.0493 | R2: 1.0568
• S1: 1.0249 | S2: 1.0174

Market Sentiment: Bearish
Trade Suggestion: Limit Sell: 1.0443 | Take Profit: 1.0359 | Stop Loss: 1.0501

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GBP/USD: Sterling Gains on Russia-Ukraine Truce Hopes​

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EUR/USD Holds Below 1.0950 as Trade War Escalates; GBP/USD and USD/CAD React to Key Economic Data. 18-3- 2025​

The foreign exchange market remains under pressure as geopolitical tensions, trade disputes, and central bank decisions shape sentiment. The US Dollar’s performance is mixed, with concerns over economic growth and upcoming Federal Reserve policy decisions driving market movements. Meanwhile, the Euro, Pound, and Canadian Dollar face key domestic catalysts that could influence near-term trends.

KEY HIGHLIGHTS​

• EUR/USD Stays Below 1.0950 Amid Trade War Concerns.
• GBP/USD Dips Below 1.3000 Despite Limited Downside Pressure.
• USD/CAD Trades Near 1.4300 Before Canadian CPI Release.
• USD/CHF Remains Flat Around 0.8800 Awaiting Fed Decision.

EUR/USD Analysis​

Market Overview​

EUR/USD remains below 1.0950, with optimism surrounding a potential German fiscal agreement potentially helping to curb further losses.

During the early Asian session on Tuesday, the pair trades around 1.0915, experiencing modest losses due to escalating trade tensions. US President Donald Trump’s decision to impose additional tariffs on European Union goods, including a proposed 200% levy on European wine and spirits, has heightened tensions. In response, the EU has outlined plans for retaliation, which could pressure the Euro further.

However, losses may be cushioned by a weaker US Dollar amid concerns over a potential economic slowdown in the United States. Additionally, optimism around Germany’s fiscal policy developments might limit losses for the Euro, with expectations that the proposed €500 billion infrastructure fund and debt restructuring agreement will gain approval.

Technical Overview

​

Moving Averages​

• Exponential:
• MA 10: 1.0825 | Bullish
• MA 20: 1.0716 | Bullish
• MA 50: 1.0583 | Bullish
• Simple:
• MA 10: 1.0859 | Bullish
• MA 20: 1.0665 | Bullish
• MA 50: 1.0491 | Bullish

Indicators​

• RSI: 70.78 | Buy Zone
• Stochastic Oscillator: 92.23 | Neutral

Resistance & Support Levels​

• R1: 1.0493 | R2: 1.0568
• S1: 1.0249 | S2: 1.0174

Trade Suggestion:

• Limit Buy: 1.0721 | Take Profit: 1.0950 | Stop Loss: 1.0596

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GBP/USD Analysis​

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EUR/USD Rebounds Amid US Concerns, GBP/USD Strengthens on BoE Hawkishness​

The forex market remains volatile as investors shift their focus to upcoming PMI data and evolving trade policies. The EUR/USD pair stabilizes near 1.0840 amid concerns over a potential US economic slowdown, while GBP/USD maintains a positive tone due to the Bank of England’s (BoE) hawkish stance. Meanwhile, USD/JPY hovers around 150.00 as weaker Japanese PMI data puts pressure on the yen, and AUD/USD sees a recovery fueled by robust Australian PMI figures.

KEY HIGHLIGHTS ​

• EUR/USD Rebounds on US Slowdown Concerns, PMI Data Ahead.
• GBP/USD Rises on BoE Hawkishness, Market Awaits PMI Results.
• USD/JPY Steady Near 150.00 Amid Geopolitical Uncertainty.
• AUD/USD Gains Strength After Positive Domestic PMI Figures.

EUR/USD Climbs Toward 1.0850 Amid US Economic Concerns​

EUR/USD has rebounded to approximately 1.0850, reversing a three-day decline during Monday’s early Asian session. Concerns over a potential US economic slowdown, driven by trade policies under President Donald Trump, are weighing on the US Dollar, thereby supporting the pair.

Key Factors Influencing EUR/USD:​

• US Trade Policy: The White House is revising its tariff strategy ahead of the April 2 implementation. Reports indicate a shift toward reciprocal tariffs on key US trading partners.
• Eurozone Economic Risks: ECB President Christine Lagarde has highlighted downside risks due to ongoing trade disputes.
• Upcoming Data: Investors are closely watching the preliminary March Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data for the Eurozone, Germany, and the United States, set for release later today.

Technical Overview

​

• Moving Averages (Exponential)
• MA 10: 1.0840 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
• MA 20: 1.0762 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
• MA 50: 1.0624 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
• RSI (Relative Strength Index): 60.93 | Buy Zone | Bullish
• Stochastic Oscillator: 73.29 | Buy Zone | Neutral

Resistance & Support Levels

• R1: 1.0493 | R2: 1.0568
• S1: 1.0249 | S2: 1.0174

Trade Suggestion:

• Limit Buy: 1.0710
• Take Profit: 1.0919
• Stop Loss: 1.0594

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GBP/USD Gains Traction Near 1.2950 as Traders Eye US PMI Data​

GBP/USD has edged higher toward 1.2940 in early European trading, supported by a softer US Dollar. Uncertainty surrounding President Trump’s trade policies and concerns over a potential US economic slowdown are keeping the Greenback subdued.


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EUR/USD Rises on Weak US Data, GBP/USD Struggles After Softer UK Inflation.​

The global currency markets are experiencing heightened volatility, with major forex pairs reacting to key economic data and policy shifts. The EUR/USD strengthens as weak U.S. consumer confidence weighs on the dollar, while GBP/USD remains under pressure following softer UK inflation data. Meanwhile, AUD/USD benefits from record-breaking copper prices, and USD/CHF stabilizes as the U.S. dollar gains strength amid market caution and hawkish Fed sentiment.

KEY HIGHLIGHTS ​

• EUR/USD Gains as US Consumer Confidence Hits Low.
• GBP/USD Weakens After Softer UK Inflation Data Release.
• AUD Gains Amid Copper Price Surge to Record Highs.
• USD/CHF Steady as Market Caution Boosts US Dollar.

Markets in Focus Today​

EUR/USD: Gains Momentum Amid Weak U.S. Consumer Confidence​

EUR/USD advances above 1.0750 as disappointing U.S. economic data and uncertainty over Donald Trump’s trade policies weigh on the dollar. Investors await the U.S. Durable Goods Orders report for February, which could provide further direction.

Key Market Insights:​

• U.S. Consumer Confidence: Plunged to its lowest level in over four years, indicating growing household concerns.
• Trump’s Trade Policies: Uncertainty over reciprocal tariffs may further pressure the Greenback.
• ECB Outlook: Dovish rhetoric from ECB officials suggests room for rate cuts, potentially capping the Euro’s gains.

Technical Overview​

• Moving Averages (Exponential & Simple): Mixed signals, with short-term bearish pressure but long-term bullish outlook.
• RSI: 56.49 (Bullish)
• Stochastic Oscillator: 24.83 (Neutral)
• Resistance Levels: R1: 1.0493, R2: 1.0568
• Support Levels: S1: 1.0249, S2: 1.0174
• Trade Suggestion: Limit Buy at 1.0717 | Take Profit: 1.0887 | Stop Loss: 1.0629

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GBP/USD: Under Pressure Following Soft UK Inflation Data​

Daily Expert Market Analysis

 

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Forex Market Reacts to US Tariffs: EUR/USD Rises, USD/JPY Falls Ahead of NFP Report.​

Major currency pairs remain volatile on Friday as global markets react to sweeping trade tariffs announced by U.S. President Donald Trump. Mounting fears of a global economic slowdown, shifting central bank expectations, and anticipation of the U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls report drive sharp movements across the EUR, GBP, JPY, and AUD.

KEY HIGHLIGHTS ​

• EUR/USD Rises as US Dollar Weakens Before Key Data.
• GBP/USD Holds Strong Amid US Tariff Shock and Uncertainty.
• USD/JPY Drops as Investors Seek Safe-Haven Amid Tariff Risks.
• AUD/USD Declines on Trade War Concerns and RBA Rate Bets.

Markets in Focus Today​

EUR/USD: Euro Climbs Past 1.1050 Ahead of U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls​

The EUR/USD pair extends its gains for a third consecutive session, trading around 1.1080 during early European hours on Friday. This upward momentum is driven by broad-based weakness in the U.S. Dollar. Key data releases, including German Factory Orders and the U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls report, remain in focus.

Market Drivers​

• President Trump announced sweeping global tariffs, including:
• 10% base duty on imports from most U.S. trading partners.
• 20% tariff on European Union (EU) goods.
• Additional higher tariffs on imports from other major trade allies.
• These measures, set to take effect on April 9, have raised concerns over a global economic slowdown.
• The market is pricing in an 80% probability of a 25 basis points rate cut by the European Central Bank (ECB) in April.

Technical Overview

​

Moving Averages:

• Exponential:
• MA 10: 1.0882 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
• MA 20: 1.0825 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
• MA 50: 1.0693 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
• Simple:
• MA 10: 1.0844 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
• MA 20: 1.0861 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
• MA 50: 1.0624 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Indicators:

• RSI: 66.72 | Buy Zone | Bullish
• Stochastic Oscillator: 61.33 | Buy Zone | Neutral

Key Levels:

• Resistance: R1: 1.0938, R2: 1.1074
• Support: S1: 1.0495, S2: 1.0358

Market Sentiment: Bullish

Trade Suggestion:

• Limit Buy: 1.0859
• Take Profit: 1.1070
• Stop Loss: 1.0734

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GBP/USD: Pound Sterling Holds Firm Amid U.S. Economic Pressures​

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US Dollar Weakens After Moody’s Downgrade; EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and AUD/USD Rise as Rate Cut Bets Grow.​

Currency markets opened the week with a mix of caution and volatility. The US Dollar weakened significantly following Moody’s downgrade of the US sovereign credit rating. Diverging central bank outlooks, geopolitical headlines, and fresh economic data from the US and UK are reshaping trader sentiment in pairs such as EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, and AUD/USD. US and UK traders are closely monitoring these developments during overlapping trading hours for timely opportunities.

KEY HIGHLIGHTS ​

• EUR/USD rebounds near 1.1200 as US Dollar weakens.
• GBP/USD holds gains near 1.3300 amid Dollar pressure.
• USD/JPY slips toward 145.00 amid safe-haven Yen demand.
• AUD/USD steady above 0.6400 after mixed China data.

EUR/USD​

Euro Gains Momentum Toward 1.1200 as Dollar Falters on Moody’s Downgrade​

The EUR/USD pair climbed during early Monday trading, touching 1.1190 as the US Dollar lost ground across both London and New York sessions. The downgrade of the US credit rating by Moody’s—from Aaa to Aa1—has shaken investor confidence, citing spiraling federal debt, rising interest costs, and expanding deficits.

While this mirrors earlier downgrades by Fitch and S&P, it has re-ignited questions among US-based traders about fiscal sustainability and future Fed policy. Traders in the UK are also reassessing the ECB’s potential next move, as signs point toward another rate cut—especially with Eurozone inflation gradually aligning with the ECB’s 2% target.

Geopolitically, both US and UK investors are eyeing US-China trade negotiations and early optimism over talks with Iran and Russia. The latter could reduce global risk premiums, especially relevant to UK institutional portfolios.

Technical Overview​

Exponential Moving Averages (EMA):

• MA 10: 1.1214 | Bearish
• MA 20: 1.1227 | Bearish
• MA 50: 1.1099 | Bullish

Simple Moving Averages (SMA):

• MA 10: 1.1217 | Bearish
• MA 20: 1.1282 | Bearish
• MA 50: 1.1113 | Bullish

Indicators:

• RSI: 50.18 | Bullish
• Stochastic: 35.00 | Neutral

Support/Resistance:

• Resistance: 1.1529 / 1.1717
• Support: 1.0922 / 1.0734

/ Trade Suggestion:

• Limit Buy: 1.1159
• Take Profit: 1.1267
• Stop Loss: 1.1108

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GBP/USD​

Sterling Holds Strong Near 1.3300 as US Sentiment Weakens​

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US Dollar Weakens on Inflation and Debt Worries.​

EUR/USD Outlook: Dollar Weakness Boosts Euro Near Key Resistance​

Price Holds Above 1.1250 in Early European Hours​

EUR/USD continues to build on recent gains, trading above 1.1250 in early London trading. US Dollar softness, driven by Moody’s credit downgrade, cooling inflation, and uncertainties surrounding US tariffs, is lending support to the pair.

With no major US data scheduled during the New York session, market focus for American traders shifts to Fed speakers and the potential for more dovish commentary. Meanwhile, UK-based traders await Wednesday’s UK CPI release, which could influence EUR/GBP sentiment and cross-hedging activity.

Key Technical Overview​

Moving Averages​

Exponential

• MA 10: 1.1230 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
• MA 20: 1.1235 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
• MA 50: 1.1107 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple

• MA 10: 1.1211 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
• MA 20: 1.1279 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
• MA 50: 1.1121 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Indicators​

• RSI: 54.28 | Buy Zone | Bullish
• Stochastic: 49.14 | Buy Zone | Neutral

Key Levels​

• Resistance: R1: 1.1529 | R2: 1.1717
• Support: S1: 1.0922 | S2: 1.0734

Market Sentiment:​

Trade Suggestion (London/NY Traders):​

Limit Buy: 1.1189 | Take Profit: 1.1375 | Stop Loss: 1.1081

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GBP/USD Outlook: Pound Gains Ground on USD Weakness​

Holding Firm Above 1.3350 During London Hours​

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Dollar in Freefall: Euro, Pound, and Aussie Surge as Fed Dovish Tilt Sparks Forex Shake-Up.​

EUR/USD: Euro Climbs on Dollar Weakness and Policy Divergence​

Fundamental Overview​

The euro gained further traction against the US Dollar during the UK and early US trading hours, with EUR/USD approaching the 1.1350 mark. The pair is finding support from persistent USD softness linked to trade tensions and deteriorating US fiscal credibility.

Traders in both the London and New York markets are now eyeing upcoming speeches from Federal Reserve and European Central Bank officials for clarity on monetary policy direction. The divergence remains a key driver:

• ECB recently cut its deposit rate by 25 basis points to 2.25%.
• Fed remains on hold but is expected to cut rates twice before year-end due to cooling inflation and slower growth.

The market’s muted reaction to the US-China trade truce reflects skepticism, especially since the agreement lacks enforceable mechanisms and still retains a 20% tariff on fentanyl-linked imports. This undermines optimism and reduces confidence in the Greenback’s rebound.

Technical Overview​

Moving Averages – Bullish Momentum​

Exponential MA

• MA 10: 1.1248 – Bullish
• MA 20: 1.1244 – Bullish
• MA 50: 1.1116 – Bullish

Simple MA

• MA 10: 1.1213 – Bullish
• MA 20: 1.1279 – Bullish
• MA 50: 1.1130 – Bullish

Indicators​

• RSI: 57.23 – In buy zone
• Stochastic Oscillator: 68.04 – Neutral to bullish

Support & Resistance​

• R1: 1.1529 | R2: 1.1717
• S1: 1.0922 | S2: 1.0734

Overall Sentiment: Bullish
Market Direction: Buy

Trade Suggestion

• Entry: Limit Buy at 1.1263
• Take Profit: 1.1425
• Stop Loss: 1.1168

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GBP/USD: Sterling Soars to 3-Year High on Hotter UK Inflation​

Fundamental Overview​

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