Forex Forum fundamental analysis

[Forex Forum]

China's trade surplus jumped to USD 66.76 billion in September 2021 from USD 35.45 billion in the same month a year earlier, easily beating market estimates of a surplus of USD 46.8 billion. This was the largest trade surplus since December 2020, as exports extended their double-digit growth while imports moderated. The trade surplus with the US widened to USD 42.0 billion from USD 37.68 billion in August.

 

[Shing1985]

Great! China can dominate the market this year.

 

[Forex Forum]

Since April last year, crude oil has seen the strongest bullish momentum in history. US WTI Oil has rallied from $-37.50 to $85. Moving averages have been doing a great job as support indicators on the daily chart, with the smaller ones, such as the 20 SMA (gray), pushing the price higher when the trend picked up pace.

Now, we are in the middle of a really bullish period for oil, with the 20 SMA indicating just that.

What do you think about it?

 

[Shing1985]

Can it go to a bearish trend?

 

[Forex Forum]

Can it go to a bearish trend?

May be, may be not.

 

[Forex Forum]

Weekly pound fundamental forecast

In Forex, traders always act at their own risk, and must understand that in case of incorrect interpretation of the information received, they will lose money. The head of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, did not make excuses because he misled the financial markets about the need to curb the raging inflation. The traders are to blame for believing in the BoE head's assumptions. The interest rate remained unchanged at 0.1%, but they lost money. It's only the beginning!

Ahead of the BoE meeting in November, it was not clear how the labor market was doing. There was no data on October inflation either. The Bank of England had to act blindly and it is not surprising that it refrained from changing monetary policy. At the beginning of the second half of November, it became clear that it was necessary to raise the interest rate. The number of paid employees in the UK in September-October rose by 160 thousand to 29.3 million, and the number of vacancies rose to a record level. It seems that the end of the government's job support program in early autumn did not negatively affect the labor market, which removes the obstacle to the start of monetary restriction.

 

[Forex Forum]

The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) has said Britain is on track for growth to jump by 6.9% in 2021, with a further 4.7% in 2022 and 2.1% in 2023.

That performance would see the country outpace its G7 rivals in 2021 and 2022.

Forecasts for this year are an upgrade from the 6.7% predicted in September, and, while 2022 saw a downgrade from 5.2%, it would still see the UK lead the G7.

“We are concerned that the new variant of the virus, the Omicron strain, is further adding to the already high levels of uncertainty and risks, and that could be a threat to the recovery,” said Laurence Boone, OECD chief economist.

 

[Forex Forum]

EUR/USD REBOUND FROM NOVEMBER LOW UNRAVELS AMID HAWKISH FED RHETORIC

EUR/USD may continue to exhibit a bearish trend over the remainder of the year amid the diverging paths between the European Central Bank (ECB) and Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), and it seems as though the US central bank is on track to deliver a rate hike in 2022 as Chairman Jerome Powellstrikes a hawkish tone in front of US lawmakers.

At the same time, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard, who votes on the FOMC next year, acknowledged that “real GDP has already passed the pre-pandemic peak” while speaking at the Missouri Bankers Association, with the official going onto say that the central bank “may want to consider removing accommodation at a faster pace” amid the ongoing improvement in the labor market.

 

[Forex Forum]

U.S. consumer prices rose solidly in November as Americans paid more for food and a range goods, leading to the largest annual gain since 1982, posing a political nightmare for President Joe Biden's administration and cementing expectations for the Federal Reserve to start raising interest rates next year.

The report from the Labor Department on Friday, which followed on the heels of a slew of data this month showing a rapidly tightening labor market, makes it likely the U.S. central bank will announce that it is speeding up the wind-down of its massive bond purchases at its policy meeting next week.

 

[Forex Forum]

Jan-30, 2022, Eurozone Fundamental Analysis, By forex forum.​

It's troublesome to contemplate the Euro's potential with out contemplating the obviously apparent variations within the path to normalization for the ECB when in comparison with different main central banks. Admittedly, the Eurozone could be very completely different in its make as much as different single nations however proper now its troublesome to see indicators of Euro energy.

Whereas the ECB is anticipated to keep up its dovish stance on fee hikes and inflation over the medium time period, the Fed has ramped up already bold expectations in the case of the tempo and frequency of fee hikes this yr. The greenback shot up after Wednesday's FOMC assembly and press convention, which was most evident through the EUR/USD pair and US Greenback Index (DXY). The Euro has shot down within the listing of currencies in comparison with the US greenback and at present trades round 2% decrease in 2022 up to now.

Italian elections drag on At the end of the week, it should be noted that there is still no consensus on who will be the next Italian president.​

The lengthy process of voting every day until a president is elected has been recognized as inefficient, but the behind-the-scenes antics and deals are said to offer Italian audiences a sort of theatrical experience and draw in many viewers.

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