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SebsCubs

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Will the US crude oil inventories push the USD up?

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23.12.2019

The American Crude Oil inventories will be announced at 18:00 MT time on December 27.

In view of the OPEC’s last meeting and the ongoing discussions around the world oil production and prices, the American crude oil inventories are an important figure to watch out for. Although it is not a prime indicator like a total US crude oil output, still, it has an impact on the market, especially on the CAD after the USD, due to the robust energy sector of Canada connected with the US. While the USD rises on the expansion of this indicator, the influence on the CAD is inverted; decreasing American oil inventories would put the USD under pressure down and support the CAD.


If the figures are higher than expected, the USD will be supported;

If the figures are lower than expected, the USD will be under pressure down.

 
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Where will EUR/USD head to?

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30.12.2019

Morgan Stanley forecasts EUR/USD at 1.16 at the end of March 2020, ahead of a further rise to 1.18 by the end of June 2020. According to the bank, Eurozone growth will pick up as US growth starts to slow. In addition, the euro will be supported by political factors. A 2020 resolution to Brexit should reduce economic uncertainty for the UK and its major trading partners, including the euro area.

Rabobank reminds, however, that the USD is still the only dominant currency on the global payments system and that the US economy continues to perform well relative to other major countries.” The bank foresees EUR/USD at 1.09 in a three month period and at 1.11 in nine months.

BNP Paribas is somewhere in the middle. Its analysts think that the Fed will cut its official rate twice in the first half of 2020 in reaction to a slowing economy, moderate inflation, and high uncertainty. At the same time, the ECB will also keep the accommodative policy and this won’t let the euro strengthen much against the USD. As a result, there will be little change in EUR/USD even though the euro’s fair value is quite higher than current pricing.

 

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Cautious moods entering the market

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06.01.2020


A shattered hope for a quiet start

As we have observed in the previous article, the escalation of the chronic US-Iran conflict put the Middle East unrest into the focus of the world’s political and economic news. Since the death of the Iranian military commander, general Soleimani, the countries only exchanged mutual threats. That pushed the markets away from the outright positive moods to the risk-aversion scenarios with the corresponding currencies and commodities.
Oil

Brent is already trading at $70 per barrel. We mentioned this level as the expected maximum of the price movement for this year in the 2020 forecast for oil. On the daily chart below, the price reached this high with confidence, having now $73 as the next target. If no better news comes from the US-Iran front, there will be a high probability of the price getting there quite soon.


In general, the oil will be the first item to react to any Middle East news. As it is produced in this region, any shaky movement will push its price upwards (to the joy of OPEC+ and other oil-exporting countries, including the US, by the way).
Gold

Gold rose to where it has not been since 2013. On the weekly chart, it broke the August-2019 high of $1530 per ounce to the levels of $1570. The next resistance lies at $1610 at the level of the March-2013 high. The supports may be kept at $1483 and $1453. However, these are likely to stay untouched if the situation in the Middle East keeps evolving in the same direction.

Swiss franc

On the H1, January 3 is where the local downtrend starts – that’s when the news about the Iranian military commander was released. Before that, the USD/CHF was mostly rising. Now, the currency pair is traded at 0.9713, going into consolidation at the 50-period Moving Average level. That reflects the inner logic of the situation: the otherwise positive market mood waiting to see the US-China deal signed tripped at the sudden Middle East tension surge. If things go the same direction, the Swiss franc will keep gaining strength as the primary safe-haven currency, in line with the other ones.

Conclusion

No one expected the US-Iran relations to receive this sudden blow, but this is how things work. However, it would be an overstatement to say that the market seriously trembled. Yes, we saw related currencies and commodities react to the US-Iran worrying news, but nothing extraordinary happened so far. Now, it will be safe to assume that the market shrugs off an openly positive mood and enters a more cautious mode to receive more news about the Middle East situation and weigh them against the US-China trade deal confirmations.

 

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TESLA: up to $500 per share or not so fast?

More at: http://bit.ly/35rjNOA

06.01.2020

What happened

On December 30, Tesla celebrated its first Model-3 vehicle moving off the company’s first overseas plant in Shanghai, China.
What does it mean

Tesla is trying to conquer the Chinese market, being an electric vehicle production pioneer. This goal is pursued because the company sees the strategic importance and vast potential of the Chinese consumer demand. Reaching a success here would mean that Tesla is truly going global.

However, there are various factors against that: a general drop in the Chinese domestic consumer demand as a trade war echo, a mid-term drop in the electric vehicles demand among the population, the vehicles may be affordable for a narrower market segment than what the company expects, the company’s own financial bumps, competitors and others.
Where are we now

The company stock price broke through the previous all-time high of $390 in the middle of December. On the daily chart, $435 per share was reached in one leap, followed by a brief correction down to $403. However, the mentioned first Model-3 appearing from the Tesla Shanghai factory gates pushed the price up again. Consequently, it is now at the current all-time high of $443 per share.

Where is it going

Now, all eyes will be on Tesla’s Chinese sales dynamics. If these go well, eventually, that will prove that the company’s strategic decision to tap into China’s market was the right one. If it happens, the company stock will indeed has all it takes to reach $500 per share as analysts forecast. If not, we will see what else Elon Musk has up his sleeve.
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GOLD: bullish move on US-Iran conflict escalation

Follow the markets: http://bit.ly/2QA85No

08.01.2020

Missiles landing, plane crashing

Missiles have landed today at US airbases in Iraq. This was Iranian retaliation for the killing of elite Quds Force commander Qassem Soleimani by American forces. Another piece of news was that a plane bound to Ukraine crashed in Iran with all passengers and staff dying. No surprise, gold rose to $1,600 as investors seek refuge and hedge their risks against market drawdowns.

Broader consequences

$1,600 may not be the end of it. Analysts at Goldman Sachs say that gold may reach $1,625 this quarter if the Middle East crisis persists. Notice though that even this forecast may be too modest: if the price fixes above the Fibonacci level at $1,585, the next one will be as high as at $1,730 – that’s $145 above the current price!

What's next

The US President Donald Trump did not specify the losses of the US bases. On the contrary, he tweeted “so far, so good!” and promised to give a speech today. Hence, this seems to be the major event to look forward to. At this moment, gold is correcting to the downside a bit, but the situation has all the prerequisites to put further pressure down on the USD and keep pushing the precious metal higher. The medium-term outlook for gold will remain positive as along as the price remains above the 2019 high at $1,557. Therefore, it’s a good moment to buy the precious metal and look forward to what the US president says.

 

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Main currency pairs: closing the week

Check the charts: http://bit.ly/2QA85No

10.01.2020

Friday rolls in, closing the first market week of the year 2020. Below, we briefly go through the opportunities this day offers for some key currency pairs in view of important events of the previous and coming days.
USD: all set for the NFP

Of course, markets wait for the Non-Farm Payrolls (out at 15:30 MT time). The overall situation for the US dollar looks positive for various reasons. First, the fears of the conflict escalation with Iran have subsided, losing the focus of the audience and letting the risk appetite get back from safe-havens. Second, the US-China deal is on the way, with the Chinese officials planned to visit Washington DC next week and finally sign the deal on January 15. Third, the recent economic indicators released by the US authorities give a good impression, not to mention surprisingly strong data on the previous NFP.

Hence, let’s see if USD manages to break some of the local barriers after the obstacles get removed from its way up. Against the JPY, 109.70 has been the resistance level capping the bullish moods since May 2019. Last, two months show that the currency pair has been testing this line again and again. Will today be the breakthrough?

Against the EUR, the price is testing the support of the 200-period Moving Average. Also, that is where the bottom line of the December uptrend is located – EUR/USD went into consolidation there at 1.1106. Will this trend be broken as well, leading to the reversal upwards? Let’s see what the NFP brings.

EUR/GBP: dotting the “I’s” for Brexit

The future is finally decided. Boris Johnson’s EU Withdrawal Agreement has been approved in the House of Commons and passed to the House of Lords. 31Jan confirming the end of the relationship is now merely a formality. Now, all eyes will be on the course of negotiations between the UK and the EU. The European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said it will be almost impossible to have all the points negotiated until the end of 2020, so the fears of a bad Brexit are amassing. On the other side, the Eurozone’s own economic indicators are not that good, although there are signing of the European economy picking up the pace. That’s why we see EUR/GBP struggling to decide where to go, right in the crossing area of the Moving Averages at the level of 0.8500. Which direction it will choose? So far, the table is tilted towards the EUR more.

AUD: lands on fire, currency rising

Against all odds, the AUD is rising. While the bushfires keep damaging the Australian economy and the rumors of the RBA going dovish in February are voiced out among the observers, the AUD/NZD grows to 1.038 to test the 50-period Moving Average. If that resistance is broken and the currency manages to climb above 1.0400 to challenge the 100-MA, it will move into the upper part of the downtrend prevailing during the last month and possibly challenging it later on.


 

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Important events this week will bring us

More at: http://bit.ly/36P3BZ1

13.01.2020

American and British consumer prices

The market awaits the US consumer prices on Tuesday at 15:30 MT time (12:30 GMT) and the British CPI on Wednesday at 11:30 MT time (9:30 GMT). No major surprises are expected by analysts: while the American headline and core CPIs are anticipated to advance by 0.2%, the British consumer price index may reach the same level as during the previous release, showing the increase by 1.5%. As usual, higher-than-expected figures will bring positive momentum to the USD.
In the end, it needs a sign

Donald Trump plans to meet with the Chinese side on Wednesday, where he is going to sign the “phase one trade deal”. Despite the optimism on the agreement, the details of the document have still not been announced and reportedly remain under review. We expect the comments by both sides and the final details of the deal. As it may fail to meet the market’s expectations, Wednesday’s trade will largely depend on the risk sentiment.

The risk may also be affected by the US-Iran tensions after the latter admitted it shot down a Ukrainian airliner by mistake.
Retail sales of the US

The week will be highlighted by yet another important indicators for the United States, which are retail sales and core retail sales. The indicators will be published on Thursday at 15:30 MT (12:30 GMT). Analysts are optimistic in their forecasts; both headline and core indicators are anticipated to rise by 0.5% and 0.3% accordingly.
Earning reports by the US banks

This will be the first earnings week of 2020 with Citigroup and JPMorgan releasing their financial results on Tuesday and Alcoa with the Bank of America on Wednesday. While JP Morgan is forecast to release the revenue of $27.96 billion and EPS equaled 2.37, experts suggest Citigroup posting EPS of 1.86 and the revenue of $73.9 billion. At the same time, the earnings of Alcoa are expected to decline, with a revenue of $2.48 billion and EPS of -0.21.
Exotic currencies are under the spotlight

The Bank of Turkey and the South African Reserve banks will hold their meetings on Thursday. The decisions by the regulators may affect the TRY and the ZAR.

 
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