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SebsCubs

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Retail data may shake the loonie

More at: http://bit.ly/36aGh6U

22.01.2020

Canada will publish the headline and core retail sales on January 24 at 15:30 MT time.

Retail indicators show the change in the total value of sales at the retail level. The main difference between the headline and core indicators lies in the fact, that the latter excludes automobile sales due to their volatility. Last time both indicators came out much lower than the projections. While the forecasts were quite optimistic, the actual figures showed a decline. The retail sales fell by 1.2%, and core retail sales - by 0.5%. As a result, the Canadian dollar moved down. Will we see a different outcome this time?

• If the indicators are greater than the forecast, the loonie will rise;

• If the indicators are lower than the forecasts, the loonie will fall.

Check the economic calendar

 
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The sell-off across the markets

More at: http://bit.ly/2U1YzES

27.01.2020

The week has started with a cautious note, as the news surrounding coronavirus combined with the attack of the US embassy in Baghdad increased the risk-off sentiment in the markets.
Coronavirus is spreading

What is a coronavirus and how it affects the markets? You can read more about it in our recent article. Long story short, it is a deadly pneumonia-like disease that started in the food markets of middle China. China has already reported more than 2,700 cases of coronavirus. The country even extended the Lunar New year holiday after the reports of 80 confirmed deaths. And while the doctors are looking for a cure, the spread of the virus continues.
The attack of the US embassy

Five rockets crashed near the US embassy in Iraq amid the wide protests in the country. The demonstrators have been demanding the removal of the ruling elite and an end to foreign interference in Iraqi politics.
The market reaction

The risk-weighted assets reacted immediately to the news. Of course, the initial reaction has been visible on the USD/CNH chart. The pair gapped up towards the crossover of the 200- and 50- day SMA at 6.9795. At the moment, bulls are targeting the next key resistance at 7.014. The key level on the downside will be placed at 6.9525. The next one is 6.92.

Against the USD, the Australian dollar gapped down towards the 0.6770 level on the daily chart. Strong bearish pressure may pull the pair lower to the 0.6750 level. The upside momentum will be limited by the 0.6820 and 0.6855 levels.

USD/JPY has been showing a mixed performance. After the opening below the 50-day SMA and the 109 level, bulls have been trying to take back their positions. On the other hand, bears are still trying to pull the pair as low as the 200-day SMA at 108.47. The next key support will lie at 108.25.

Gold has retested the highs of early January around the $1,585 level. Increased risk-off sentiment may push it higher towards $1,600. On the downside, there is support at $1,538.


Oil prices opened much weaker, too. The price of Brent fell to the lows of last October, looking forward the support at $58.2. The next key level for bears will lie at $57.3. Bulls need to push the price above the $60 level to get back their positions.

WTI inched lower, too. Right now the price is moving down towards $51.85. The next support in focus will be placed at $51. The key level for bulls is placed at $54.

 

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PFIZER: will it repeat the jump?

Check the charts: http://bit.ly/2S8DOFd

28.01.2020

What?

The famous pharma giant Pfizer is going to release its earnings report on January 28 at 17:00 MT time. According to analysts, the company will post a revenue of $12.61 billion and EPS of $0.57.
Why is it important?

The current release will show whether the merger of Pfizer’s off-patent drug unit Upjohn with drug-producing company Mylan brings any positive results. While some analysts anticipate the deal to be powerful enough for a company to stay strong in the challenging pharmaceutical market, others are being more skeptical. They expect to see any significant effect only in 2023. Of course, the optimistic comments on this topic during the conference call on January 28 will be appreciated by bulls.
The previous release

During the previous release, the revenue reached $12.68 billion, while EPS came out at $0.75. The figures were greater than analysts’ expectations. Also, the company raised its 2019 forecasts. According to it, the revenue will reach $51.2 to $52.2 billion (vs. $50.5 to $52.5 previously) and EPS $2.94 to $3 (previously $2.76 to $2.86).

As we can see in the picture below, the price of Pfizer stock jumped on the release from $37.27 to $38 and managed to rise as high as $38.75 within a day.

If the actual figures outperform the forecasts this time, we may see a similar scenario.
Key levels for Pfizer stock

On the daily chart, the price of Pfizer is trying to stick above the 200-day SMA. The positive earnings report will push the stock above the $40.86 level towards the next resistance at $41.8. The downward momentum will be limited by the $38.67 level.

What should you do now?

Get ready for the release at 17:00 MT time and follow these easy steps

Open the MT5 account in your FBS personal area
Make a deposit
Download MT5

 

SebsCubs

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Friday: closing January 2020

Check the charts: http://bit.ly/37Wb0pK

31.01.2020
Not only humans

From a “planetary” perspective, an event such as a new virus outbreak is supposed to happen every now and then. The evolution still goes on, and the fact that humans are the most successful and advanced species does not mean that other species have stopped their development in the background. In fact, there are particular beings in the organic world that keep competing with the human race since ages – the viruses. Now, it is Coronavirus. “Came” fast, stroke hard, and reigning already cross-continent in a matter of two weeks.

Source: Bloomberg

As of now, there are almost 10,000 confirmed Coronavirus cases across the world, with the majority registered in China as the initial territorial source. Out of these, more than 200 are deaths and 1500 severe.

As a result, flights were halted, borders were closed, production was stalled, markets were suppressed. Obviously, the Chinese economy has to endure the strongest impact. However, other countries suffer also, proportionately to their ties with China and involvement in the global economic process.

The World Health Organization declared the virus outbreak as a global emergency recognizing the gravity of the situation and the rising toll of the infected. Hence, the crisis is still on, and it is far from being dealt with, but the tone of the announcement by the WHO was more confident than what it could have been. The impression is therefore heavy, but not yet the panic mode. Based on this, we can assume that the flight to safety will keep guiding the stock and Forex markets, but we need to be cautious when predicting the exact levels to which safe-haven currencies can rise and stock fall. In any case, USD, JPY, and CHF are expected to be in the focus of the Forex market investors.
In the parallel universe

Like there are no concerns, Amazon announced its breakthrough sales during the holidays, to the joy of investors and amusement of the market. The stock is on the rising curve now, trading at the level of $1,871 per share and aiming at the resistance of $1,888. If it crosses that level and climbs to $1,900, we may well interpret it as a mid-term trend reversal. Supports of $1,865 and $1,835 will be there to check the opposite potential.

The British Isles

A very interesting combination of news is keeping the focus around the UK. Yesterday, the EU Council has adopted the Brexit document, which was the last formality concluding the process. Today, at midnight MT time the transition period comes into force. The UK PM will give a speech over Brexit and the UK economy, probably encouraging the population to unite around the country’s advancement in this period (and with this, trying to solidify his political positions as well). Lastly, the Bank of England announced the interest rate unchanged at 0.75% as voted 7-2. However, it pointed out serious economic weakness points – we will see how Boris Johnson will address that.

Amidst all this, the GBP has been growing stronger against the Euro. Currently, the currency pair is trading at 0.8400. The closest support lies at 0.8280, the December low. It seems unlikely for EUR/GBP to go straight to there even with the good information layout, but that will be a mid-term aim for the currency pair. If the GBP loses its positions, the local resistance levels will be at 0.8450, 0.8470 and 0.8510.
Safe like Canada?

Today, Canada announces its monthly GDP growth rate at 15:30 MT time. The tendency over the year was a decline in this indicator. Hence, it would be inspirational for the CAD to see a better-than-expected performance of the Canadian economy.

Since the very beginning of the year, the USD/CAD has been showing nothing but appreciation of the US dollar against the CAD. If there is no good news for the Canadian dollar, there are December high of 1.3265 and November high of 1.3325 before the currency pair as resistance levels.

 

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The USD is awaiting the flash manufacturing PMI

More at: http://bit.ly/2V6w2Pd

19.02.2020

The United States will publish its flash manufacturing PMI at 16:45 MT time on February 21.

Instruments to trade: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD

This indicator reflects the economic situation of a country. While it’s just a survey of purchasing managers in the manufacturing industry, their answers tend to show the overall views on the current business conditions within a country. If the indicator is above 50, it demonstrates the expansion of an industry, while an indicator below 50 signals a contraction. Last time an indicator came out at a lower-than-expected level. As a result, the USD fell. What awaits the currency this time?

• If the actual level of indicator is higher than the forecasts, the USD will go up;

• If the actual level of indicator is lower than the forecasts, the USD will go down.

Check the economic calendar

 

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What is pulling the stocks down?

More at: http://bit.ly/3a2ofpP

18.02.2020

The earnings season has come to an end, but that does not stop the news, which moves the stock market. Indeed, coronavirus fears continue to determine the risk sentiment in the markets. The outcome of the quarantine measures is already visible from the recent researches and the fresh announcement by Apple. Below we outlined the main disappointments for the stock market right now.
Disappointment number one: Apple

The big news from Apple seemed to affect everything. The European stock market fell lower with the gap down of DAX 30, the S&P 500 is targeting the levels on the downside, too. The safe-haven currency pairs got stronger and the oil prices fell. The risk trading is held on the pause and soon we will see how the American stocks reacted to that report as well. What is so special about the revenue update by Apple that drives the markets crazy? Of course, it is the figures. Before the outbreak of coronavirus, Apple set the target revenue in the range between $63 billion and $67 billion. Now, according to the guidance by the gadget producer, the company does not expect to meet its revenue target due to the slowdown and lower smartphone demand. The thing is, Apple has great exposure to the Chinese market and has production facilities there. That is why it is not a surprise that the long-lasting Chinese New year “holidays” affect the company’s performance. At the same time, the sales outside China have been quite strong, according to the report.

After the American market’s opening, the stock of Apple gapped down to the $309 support but immediately regained strength towards the $325 level.

Disappointment number two: Walmart

The US retail corporation showed weaker earnings data this quarter. EPS missed estimates with $1.38 (vs. the expected $1.43) and the revenue also disappointed the markets with $141.67 billion (vs. $142.4 billion forecast).

At the moment, on the daily chart of Walmart, the key levels for bears lie at $117 and $115.7, while the upside momentum may be limited by the $119.4 and $120.7 levels.

Disappointment number three: General Motors

The company is reportedly leaving the markets of Australia, New Zealand, and Thailand in order to focus on more productive markets. Among GM’s plans is the selling of the Rayong factory in Thailand and withdraw the Chevrolet brand from there by the end of 2021.

The price of GM opened much lower on the daily chart but managed to recover towards the $35 level.

 

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Coronavirus vs Forex: status update

Check the charts: http://bit.ly/2SQheme

20.02.2020

Stats

As of now, the number of deaths due to Coronavirus has exceeded 2000 people and the total number of infections is more than 75000 people across the continents. Most of these, obviously, are in China, where authorities are trying to counter the economic consequences of this disaster through direct financing and control. So far these measures have had limited effect and certain sectors of the Chinese economy were reported to operate at 50% capacity. With most of the countries in the world having China as a top trading partner, that will bring dire consequences.
Gold

Gold left the pulling power of $1,550 which has been holding it since the beginning of the year. Currently, a Troy ounce trades at $1,605, which, first, is above the strategic $1,600 long waited by many to be crossed, and, second, is at a 7-year high. Therefore, from the XAU/USD standpoint, Coronavirus is no little thing. Of course, $1,800 is still too early to be aimed at, but let’s remember: just a couple of months ago, in Autumn-2019 was at $1,450 – almost as far away from the current level as the latter is from the all-time highs. It will be fair to say that gold will have full ground to as high as that if the Coronavirus is not contained in the nearest future.

EUR/USD

In general, the US dollar is as great now against other currencies as EUR is unwell. In summary, the USD has both internal and external factors now supporting it, while EUR has almost all the factors against it. Currently, EUR/USD is traded at 1.0787 – that’s where it has been last in Spring-2017. 3-year low – that’s a serious case. Lower ahead, there are only supports of 1.0560 and 1.0350, left from Autumn-2016. And the facts say these are not far away.

USD/JPY

The Japanese yen finally lost its ground against the USD. That’s due to a notable economic contraction in Japan and the Coronavirus indirect impact on the Japanese economy, while the US dollar rises on strong domestic indicators and increasing flight-to-safety demand for it as a reserve currency. The sluggish uptrend market in the chart has been broken recently by an aggressive leap up. Currently, USD/JPY trades at 111.70, looking at the resistance of 112.40, which is a 1-year high. Very likely, it will be there quite soon.

USD/CNH

Against the Chinese yuan, the US dollar trades at 7.022. That’s above the critical level of 7.000, but since the last week of January that doesn’t alarm anyone more than it has already. If the crisis develops the same manner it has been during this week, do not be surprised to see the resistance of 7.0400 be broken in the nearest future.

Conclusion

The fact that people die because of the Coronavirus is a tragedy. The direct global economic damage because of the production, supply and service shortages in China is an obvious problem. But the tricky part is that the more Coronavirus is raging out there, the larger its long-term impact is going to be. So it is the accumulation effect that is hiding behind the frontlines of quarantined families in Wuhan and canceled flights to China. It will come to light, however, once the crisis is over and the victory over this disaster is announced.

 

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Important events on February 24-28

More news: http://bit.ly/2T4OPro

24.02.2020
No way around it

It’s not an event, but a heavy presence out there. And in the absence of loud economic meetings or announcements for the last week of February, this presence becomes even heavier. Coronavirus has been having the global market under pressure for more than a month now. Whatever the dynamic of the counter-measures, the echo of this natural disaster will keep resonating for quite a while. During the week, we will be receiving messages from that front, especially for the Chinese side, both in terms of medical assistance to the population and economic revitalization of the country. As of last week, observers commented that the tip of the crisis has not been reached so far.
US: auxiliary indicators

There will no major indicators released from any side, by some of those released this week are worth checking. From the US, we will have CB Consumer Confidence (Tuesday, 17:00 MT), Durable Goods and Preliminary Quarterly GDP (Thursday, 15:30 MT), Crude Oil Inventories (Wednesday, 17:30 MT), PCE Price Index and Monthly Personal Spending (Friday, 15:30 MT) and Chicago PMI (Friday, 15:30 MT). All these indicators combined provide comprehensive information on the status of the American economy from all sides: production, inflation, retail, and energy. The recent domestic economic achievements of the US have been quite remarkable, so the question is whether this country will be able to keep the pace of expansion on all sides in view of the Coronavirus' indirect impact on it.
USD

As we speak of the US, the media almost unanimously predict that the US dollar has all it needs to keep growing against all its counterparts in Forex. The euro has basically nowhere to go but to lose its positions to the USD. The Japanese yen, although normally regarded as safe-haven, loses value on weak domestic economic indicators in Japan and due to the impact from the suppressed trade activity from the Chinese side. The British pound, despite a slight correction upwards at the end of the week, follows a larger downtrend and also domestically has a lot to worry about.
Gold

There is no event related to gold next week. In fact, there is hardly any event ever that would be concerning specifically gold. But it definitely will be an event if the Coronavirus pushes the price of the precious metal to reach $1,700. While we speak, it trades within the 7-year-highs zone, and a mere $200 separates it from its all-time high. Crossing $1,700 would be a sure sign that the shining metal is on its way there.

 

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The assets wrap: the best, the worst, and the most volatile

Check the charts: http://bit.ly/3c2Uk2y

24.02.2020

Another week was full of coronavirus fears, which moved the markets a lot. Let’s consider the best and the worst-performing assets as Monday’s session kicks in.
The best performers

Among the best-performing currency pairs, we need to highlight the USD/BRL pair. The USD strengthened against the Brazilian real by nearly 950 pips within one week, closing at the all-time-high of 4.3959. The poor Brazilian retail data published on Wednesday and the risk-off sentiment weakened the Brazilian real against the US dollar. If the pair reverses, it’s recommended to pay attention to the 4.3 level.


If you are a trader of major currency pairs, look at USD/JPY. The pair rose from the 109.85 level towards the resistance at 112.1. If the USD continues strengthening this week, bulls will break the 112.1 level and target the next resistance at 112.85. On the downside, there is a strong support level at 109.72.


Among commodities, the safe-haven gold, as well as palladium, was the main gainer. The price for gold rose from $1,582 to $1,584 last week and has opened with a gap up today, moving even higher to the $1,690 level. The next key resistance will be placed at the highs of November 2012 at $1,730. In case of a risk-on sentiment, wait for the reversal to $1,567.5.


As for palladium, the price for this metal jumped by $385.5 and reached an all-time high at $2,829. The key support level for bears lies at $2,247.

The worst performers

Of course, the Australian and the New Zealand dollars faced pressure amid the risk aversion. The AUD/USD pair was going down and tested the levels below the 0.6618. The next support for the pair lies at 0.6443. Bulls need to push the pair above the 0.6618 level in order to reach the 0.68 level faster.


The kiwi was down by 143 pips last week, moving lower t the support at 0.6284. If this level is broken, the next support will lie at 0.6155.


Also, GBP/USD was among the weakest pairs last week. It fell from the opening price of 1.3034 to the lows at 1.2848. The closest support lies at 1.2832. The next one will be placed at 1.2726. The upside momentum will be limited by the 1.3053 level.


The award for the most volatile pairs go also to exotics: USD/MXN and USD/TRY showed some sharp moves last week.

What will be the key movers this week?

Follow the news, check the economic calendar and watch the movement of the assets traded on our platform!

 

SebsCubs

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Important events on March 2-6

More at: http://bit.ly/39g75oD

28.02.2020

Will the pandemic be confirmed?

After the heavy selloff last week amid the coronavirus fears, next week is going to be interesting to look at. As the number of cases around the world continues rising, investors keep selling the risky assets and buying safe-havens such as the Japanese yen. We may expect more news, more cases and, probably, more damage to the markets. In case of lighter data, the risk sentiment will recover.
Reserve bank of Australia will publish the statement

The Reserve bank of Australia will release its rate statement on March 3 at 5:30 MT time. The market expects the bank to keep its interest rate on hold at 0.75%. At the same time, it may acknowledge the risks from the coronavirus, which directly hurt its main trade partner – China, and has been already spread globally. If the bank provides a dovish outlook, the Australian dollar will fall to the lows of the 2008 crisis. In case of an alternative scenario, the AUD will strengthen.
Will we see a rate cut by the Bank of Canada?

The Bank of Canada will be the second major central bank to conduct a meeting next week. The meeting is expected on Wednesday at 17:00 MT time. Coronavirus made the overnight index swaps market pricing in a 61% chance of a rate cut. At the moment, the interest rate is held at 1.75%. The rate cut will make the Canadian dollar vulnerable to a further fall. Let’s not forget that the commodity-linked currency is affected by the coronavirus fears and the weakening of the oil prices. On the other hand, hawkish comments will push the Canadian dollar up.
NFP week

The United States will release the level of non-farm employment change alongside with average hourly earnings and an unemployment rate on Friday at 15:30 MT time. The forecasts are optimistic: analysts anticipate the NFP to advance by 185K, average hourly earnings to increase by 0.3%, and the unemployment change to reach 3.5% - down from the 3.6% previously. Better-than-expected figures will push the US dollar higher.
OPEC urgent meeting

Next Thursday the countries of OPEC will hold an extraordinary meeting in Vienna. They will decide on further cuts of oil output amid the weak oil prices.

 
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