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SebsCubs

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Retail data may shake the loonie

More at: http://bit.ly/36aGh6U

22.01.2020

Canada will publish the headline and core retail sales on January 24 at 15:30 MT time.

Retail indicators show the change in the total value of sales at the retail level. The main difference between the headline and core indicators lies in the fact, that the latter excludes automobile sales due to their volatility. Last time both indicators came out much lower than the projections. While the forecasts were quite optimistic, the actual figures showed a decline. The retail sales fell by 1.2%, and core retail sales - by 0.5%. As a result, the Canadian dollar moved down. Will we see a different outcome this time?

• If the indicators are greater than the forecast, the loonie will rise;

• If the indicators are lower than the forecasts, the loonie will fall.

Check the economic calendar

 
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SebsCubs

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The sell-off across the markets

More at: http://bit.ly/2U1YzES

27.01.2020

The week has started with a cautious note, as the news surrounding coronavirus combined with the attack of the US embassy in Baghdad increased the risk-off sentiment in the markets.
Coronavirus is spreading

What is a coronavirus and how it affects the markets? You can read more about it in our recent article. Long story short, it is a deadly pneumonia-like disease that started in the food markets of middle China. China has already reported more than 2,700 cases of coronavirus. The country even extended the Lunar New year holiday after the reports of 80 confirmed deaths. And while the doctors are looking for a cure, the spread of the virus continues.
The attack of the US embassy

Five rockets crashed near the US embassy in Iraq amid the wide protests in the country. The demonstrators have been demanding the removal of the ruling elite and an end to foreign interference in Iraqi politics.
The market reaction

The risk-weighted assets reacted immediately to the news. Of course, the initial reaction has been visible on the USD/CNH chart. The pair gapped up towards the crossover of the 200- and 50- day SMA at 6.9795. At the moment, bulls are targeting the next key resistance at 7.014. The key level on the downside will be placed at 6.9525. The next one is 6.92.

Against the USD, the Australian dollar gapped down towards the 0.6770 level on the daily chart. Strong bearish pressure may pull the pair lower to the 0.6750 level. The upside momentum will be limited by the 0.6820 and 0.6855 levels.

USD/JPY has been showing a mixed performance. After the opening below the 50-day SMA and the 109 level, bulls have been trying to take back their positions. On the other hand, bears are still trying to pull the pair as low as the 200-day SMA at 108.47. The next key support will lie at 108.25.

Gold has retested the highs of early January around the $1,585 level. Increased risk-off sentiment may push it higher towards $1,600. On the downside, there is support at $1,538.


Oil prices opened much weaker, too. The price of Brent fell to the lows of last October, looking forward the support at $58.2. The next key level for bears will lie at $57.3. Bulls need to push the price above the $60 level to get back their positions.

WTI inched lower, too. Right now the price is moving down towards $51.85. The next support in focus will be placed at $51. The key level for bulls is placed at $54.

 

SebsCubs

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PFIZER: will it repeat the jump?

Check the charts: http://bit.ly/2S8DOFd

28.01.2020

What?

The famous pharma giant Pfizer is going to release its earnings report on January 28 at 17:00 MT time. According to analysts, the company will post a revenue of $12.61 billion and EPS of $0.57.
Why is it important?

The current release will show whether the merger of Pfizer’s off-patent drug unit Upjohn with drug-producing company Mylan brings any positive results. While some analysts anticipate the deal to be powerful enough for a company to stay strong in the challenging pharmaceutical market, others are being more skeptical. They expect to see any significant effect only in 2023. Of course, the optimistic comments on this topic during the conference call on January 28 will be appreciated by bulls.
The previous release

During the previous release, the revenue reached $12.68 billion, while EPS came out at $0.75. The figures were greater than analysts’ expectations. Also, the company raised its 2019 forecasts. According to it, the revenue will reach $51.2 to $52.2 billion (vs. $50.5 to $52.5 previously) and EPS $2.94 to $3 (previously $2.76 to $2.86).

As we can see in the picture below, the price of Pfizer stock jumped on the release from $37.27 to $38 and managed to rise as high as $38.75 within a day.

If the actual figures outperform the forecasts this time, we may see a similar scenario.
Key levels for Pfizer stock

On the daily chart, the price of Pfizer is trying to stick above the 200-day SMA. The positive earnings report will push the stock above the $40.86 level towards the next resistance at $41.8. The downward momentum will be limited by the $38.67 level.

What should you do now?

Get ready for the release at 17:00 MT time and follow these easy steps

Open the MT5 account in your FBS personal area
Make a deposit
Download MT5

 

SebsCubs

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Friday: closing January 2020

Check the charts: http://bit.ly/37Wb0pK

31.01.2020
Not only humans

From a “planetary” perspective, an event such as a new virus outbreak is supposed to happen every now and then. The evolution still goes on, and the fact that humans are the most successful and advanced species does not mean that other species have stopped their development in the background. In fact, there are particular beings in the organic world that keep competing with the human race since ages – the viruses. Now, it is Coronavirus. “Came” fast, stroke hard, and reigning already cross-continent in a matter of two weeks.

Source: Bloomberg

As of now, there are almost 10,000 confirmed Coronavirus cases across the world, with the majority registered in China as the initial territorial source. Out of these, more than 200 are deaths and 1500 severe.

As a result, flights were halted, borders were closed, production was stalled, markets were suppressed. Obviously, the Chinese economy has to endure the strongest impact. However, other countries suffer also, proportionately to their ties with China and involvement in the global economic process.

The World Health Organization declared the virus outbreak as a global emergency recognizing the gravity of the situation and the rising toll of the infected. Hence, the crisis is still on, and it is far from being dealt with, but the tone of the announcement by the WHO was more confident than what it could have been. The impression is therefore heavy, but not yet the panic mode. Based on this, we can assume that the flight to safety will keep guiding the stock and Forex markets, but we need to be cautious when predicting the exact levels to which safe-haven currencies can rise and stock fall. In any case, USD, JPY, and CHF are expected to be in the focus of the Forex market investors.
In the parallel universe

Like there are no concerns, Amazon announced its breakthrough sales during the holidays, to the joy of investors and amusement of the market. The stock is on the rising curve now, trading at the level of $1,871 per share and aiming at the resistance of $1,888. If it crosses that level and climbs to $1,900, we may well interpret it as a mid-term trend reversal. Supports of $1,865 and $1,835 will be there to check the opposite potential.

The British Isles

A very interesting combination of news is keeping the focus around the UK. Yesterday, the EU Council has adopted the Brexit document, which was the last formality concluding the process. Today, at midnight MT time the transition period comes into force. The UK PM will give a speech over Brexit and the UK economy, probably encouraging the population to unite around the country’s advancement in this period (and with this, trying to solidify his political positions as well). Lastly, the Bank of England announced the interest rate unchanged at 0.75% as voted 7-2. However, it pointed out serious economic weakness points – we will see how Boris Johnson will address that.

Amidst all this, the GBP has been growing stronger against the Euro. Currently, the currency pair is trading at 0.8400. The closest support lies at 0.8280, the December low. It seems unlikely for EUR/GBP to go straight to there even with the good information layout, but that will be a mid-term aim for the currency pair. If the GBP loses its positions, the local resistance levels will be at 0.8450, 0.8470 and 0.8510.
Safe like Canada?

Today, Canada announces its monthly GDP growth rate at 15:30 MT time. The tendency over the year was a decline in this indicator. Hence, it would be inspirational for the CAD to see a better-than-expected performance of the Canadian economy.

Since the very beginning of the year, the USD/CAD has been showing nothing but appreciation of the US dollar against the CAD. If there is no good news for the Canadian dollar, there are December high of 1.3265 and November high of 1.3325 before the currency pair as resistance levels.

 

SebsCubs

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The USD is awaiting the flash manufacturing PMI

More at: http://bit.ly/2V6w2Pd

19.02.2020

The United States will publish its flash manufacturing PMI at 16:45 MT time on February 21.

Instruments to trade: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD

This indicator reflects the economic situation of a country. While it’s just a survey of purchasing managers in the manufacturing industry, their answers tend to show the overall views on the current business conditions within a country. If the indicator is above 50, it demonstrates the expansion of an industry, while an indicator below 50 signals a contraction. Last time an indicator came out at a lower-than-expected level. As a result, the USD fell. What awaits the currency this time?

• If the actual level of indicator is higher than the forecasts, the USD will go up;

• If the actual level of indicator is lower than the forecasts, the USD will go down.

Check the economic calendar

 
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