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SebsCubs

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5 important events this week will bring us

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25.11.2019

American Quarterly GDP Growth Rate 2nd Est, Consumer Spending data, Durable Goods Orders (Wed, 15:30 MT time (13:30 GMT)) – U. S. consumer spending data is due Wednesday, along with GDP, jobless claims and durable goods. The forecast for the quarterly GDP growth rate is 1.9%. Higher-than-expected index values will boost the US dollar.

European Business Confidence index (Thu, 12:00 MT time (10:00 GMT)) – The previous level of the indicator was -0.19, while the expectation for the coming one is -0.24. The euro will gain strength if the actual indicator is higher than the forecast.

British GfK Consumer Confidence (Fri, 02:01 MT time (00:01 GMT)) – The forecast for the British Consumer Confidence index is -14. If the actual one outperforms that, the British Pound will be supported.

Japanese Consumer Confidence (Fri, 07:00 MT time (05:00 GMT)) – The Japanese Consumer Confidence index is expected to show a slightly lower 35.4 value against the previous 36.2. If the indicator outperforms the prognosis, the Japanese yen will rise.

Canadian Monthly GDP Growth Rate (Fri, 15:30 MT time (13:30 GMT)) – The analysts expect the monthly GDP growth rate in Canada to show a slightly better 0.2% against the previous 0.1%. If the actual level is higher than the forecast, the Canadian dollar will go up.

Hot news:

Boris Johnson presented his election manifesto to the British Parliament on Sunday. He advised it is a “radical agenda” for the United Kingdom, and promised to present the Brexit agreement to the Parliament until December 25.

China is strengthening intellectual property rights protection, as was revealed on Sunday. The equity markets in Asia have already shown a rise partly due to this advancement within the US-China trade talks.

 
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Market updates on November 28

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28.11.2019

Key events ahead:

European Business Confidence – 12:00 MT time (10:00 GMT)

German Yearly Preliminary Inflation Rate – 15:00 MT time (13:00 GMT)

On the H1 chart of EURUSD, the euro has been in a sideways movement against the US dollar until recently. The RSI and Stochastic Indicators entered the overbought zones when the price reached 1.1014. Once the RSI crosses the 70% upside-down and the Stochastic’s fast line crosses the slow one the same manner, it may be a good moment to open shorts. The supports may be located at 1.1004 and 1.0994 for this scenario. The resistance level may be located at 1.1023.EURUSDH1.png

On the H1 chart of GBPUSD, the price reached a 1.2947 high, forming the local resistance level last night. Then it bounced down to 1.2922 and is now in a sideways movement. The MACD is indicating that the market is in the overbought state. That means the price is very likely to decline soon. For this scenario, the support levels may be located at 1.2922, 1.2872 and 1.2833. The bulls may have an additional resistance level of 1.2963.GBPUSDH1.png

On the H4 chart of EURGBP, the MACD is indicating the oversold state of the market. At the same time, the Stochastic Indicator’s fast line has already crossed the slow one bottom-up within the oversold zone. Altogether, these are the signs that the price is likely to move upwards soon. In this case, the resistance levels may be located at 0.8572 and 0.8602. The support may be placed at 0.8495.

 

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Market updates on November 29

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29.11.2019

Key events ahead:

Canadian GDP growth rate – 15:30 MT time

The Asian trading session did not see any significant movers today after the Thanksgiving holiday in the US. We will be awaiting updates on the US-China trade talks. USD/JPY has been consolidating below the 109.55 level on H4. In case of positive news, this level will be broken and the next resistance will be placed at 109.69. If the risk sentiment is off, the pair will fall as far as the 109.28 level will be reached. After the breakout, bears will pay attention to the 109.08 level. RSI oscillator is in the overbought zone. If it leaves this zone, we may open a short position.

The Canadian dollar is awaiting the release of Canada’s GDP growth. According to the forecasts, it will advance by 0.1%. At the moment of writing, USD/CAD has been trading right above the 50-period SMA. The price formed the symmetric triangle pattern on the chart. The pair has already tested the 1.3288 resistance level. In case of a breakout, the next resistance will lie at 1.3298. If the indicator is higher than the forecast, the pair will break the lower border of the symmetrical triangle and test the 1.3269 level. If it is broken, the next support in bear’s target will lie at 1.3254.

CAD/JPY has been trying to overcome the 82.45 resistance level on H4. Bulls need to break this level to continue the upward movement towards the 82.52 and 82.57 levels. Key support levels are placed at 82.28 and 82.14.

 

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Market updates on November 26

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26.11.2019

The euro is in the sideways movement currently. On the H1 chart of EURUSD, the support level of 1.1004 formed on Monday has been approached this morning. However, the Parabolic SAR indicates there is a potential for the upwards move. In this case, the resistance levels of 1.1020 and 1.1029 may be placed for the bulls. An additional support level may be located at 1.0988 for the bearish scenario.

The US dollar shows a potential for a decline against the Japanese yen. On the H1 chart of USDJPY, the Parabolic SAR is indicating a recently started bearish trend. The RSI has crossed the 70% upside-down at the same moment when the price bounced down from the upper line of the Bollinger Band. If the bearish move continues, it will have the support levels of 108.91 and 108.84 on its way. Otherwise, the resistance levels may be placed at 108.99 and 109.08

NZDCAD has been trading at the resistance level of 0.8547, reached this morning. The Stochastic Indicator shows the fast line crossing the slow one upside-down within the overbought zone. This means the price is very likely to continue dropping. For this scenario, the support levels of 0.8526 and 0.8510 may be placed. For the bulls, an additional resistance level may be located at 0.8563.

 

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5 important events this week will bring us!

More at: http://bit.ly/34IaZV5

02.12.2019

RBA rate statement (Tue, 5:30 MT time (3:30 GMT)) – The interest rate is expected to remain unchanged at 0.75%. Traders need to pay attention to the tone of the statement, as the regulator may provide hints on the possible changes to the interest rate in future. If the RBA forecasts a slash of the interest rate to the downside, the AUD will weaken.

Canadian balance of trade (Wed, 15:30 MT time (13:30 GMT)) – According to the forecasts, the deficit of the balance will shorten to -0.7 billion CAD. Higher figures will boost the Canadian dollar.

US balance of trade (Wed, 15:30 MT time (13:30 GMT)) – The deficit of trade for the United States is expected to get lower to -$49 billion. If the actual level is higher, the USD will rise.

Canadian job data (Fri, 15:30 MT time (13:30 GMT)) – Analysts anticipate the unemployment rate to increase to 5.6%. Also, the employment change will be released, although the forecasts have not been announced yet. A higher-than-expected employment change and lower-than-expected unemployment rate will support the US dollar.

American job data (Fri, 15:30 MT time (13:30 GMT)) – The US will release NFP alongside with average hourly earnings and unemployment rate. Experts anticipate the number of payrolls to advance by 180 thousand jobs, while average hourly earnings are expected to increase by 0.3% and the unemployment rate is forecast to remain at the same level of 3.6%.

Hot news:

The improvement of the Chinese manufacturing PMI (51.8 vs. 51.5 expected) during the Asian trading session boosted the risk sentiment in the market and pushed the risk-weighted assets up.

After the biggest Friday’s loss, the oil prices rebounded as Iraq announced deeper oil cuts ahead of the OPEC+ meeting on Thursday.

A fresh report on the US-China trade deal expects US President Donald Trump to hold off the implementation of tariffs on December 15. At the same time, it does not expect the deal to be reached this year.

 

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Market updates on December 3

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03.12.2019

You will never get bored in the anticipation of the US-China trade deal, as the sides have something to surprise the market all the time. While the major currency pairs have taken advantage of the weak USD, Trump has got something to make us worry. According to his comments, the US-China trade deal may come after the next year’s election. Together with the fresh tariffs against Brazil and France, these announcements will likely determine the market situation now. Pay attention to the risk-weighted currency pairs.

The Australian dollar has strengthened after the RBA kept its interest rate on hold at 0.75%. On H4, AUD/USD broke the 200-period SMA and rose higher to the November resistance levels. The bullish momentum is supported by the weaker USD, too. Upside targets for the pair lie at 0.6863 and 0.6872. However, judging by Stochastic and RSI oscillators, a reversal is likely to happen soon. Stochastic oscillator formed a crossover in the overbought zone, while RSI is moving within this zone. As soon as it crosses the 70th level upside down, it may provide us a selling opportunity. From the downside, the support levels lie at 0.6836 and 0.6825.

The kiwi is demonstrating a strong performance, too. NZD/USD is trading at the early August levels and targeting the resistance at 0.6543 on the 4-hour chart. Bulls may try to break this level and target the next resistance at 0.6561. At the same time, the Stochastic and RSI oscillators are overbought here. While RSI is looking down, a stochastic oscillator formed a crossover above 80. That is why we may expect a correction to the 0.6519 level. If this level is broken, the next support will lie at 0.6504.

USD/JPY has fallen on the comments by the US President Donald Trump. On H4, the pair has been testing the support at 108.82 (200-period SMA). If the downward momentum continues, the next support will be placed at 108.65. From the upside, keep an eye on the 109.04 and 109.2 levels.

 

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Currency market updates on December 4

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04.12.2019

Wednesday marks the middle of the trading week. Below you will find the useful information for successful trading.
Key events ahead

American ADP Non-Farm Employment change – 15:15 MT time (13:15 GMT)
Bank of Canada Rate Statement – 17:00 MT time (15:00 GMT)
American ISM Non-manufacturing PMI – 17:00 MT time (15:00 GMT)

EUR/USD is preparing for a decisive move

EUR/USD rose above 1.1070 on Monday and has been consolidating under the resistance level of 1.1090 since then. On the H1, Bollinger bands compressed. This confirms that the market is gathering power to make a more decisive move in the nearest future. The resistance level of 1.1090 has been capping the upward movement of the price since the beginning of November and may require extra effort from the bulls to break. However, the Stochastic Indicator’s fast line already crossed the slow one bottom-up within the oversold zone. This may signal a good moment to open longs. Otherwise, if the support level of 1.1070 is broken later, the price may go down to the support levels of 1.1005 and 1.0990, where it has been trading during the last week of November.

GBP/USD under pressure down

Yesterday, the British pound rose to the resistance level of 1.3008 against the US dollar. On the H4 chart of GBP/USD, since May 2019 this level was reached only on November 21. Today, the price is more likely to decline as the RSI and Stochastic are in the overbought zone and will likely leave it soon. Once the support level of 1.2990 is crossed, the next target for the bears may be located at 1.2926. Otherwise, an additional resistance level to check the bullish move may be placed at 1.3000, being a strong psychological barrier to break.

More concerns about the trade war affecting USD/JPY

US President Donald Trump announced a trade deal with China might not come until after the 2020 US presidential election. This got traders worried. The demand for the safe-haven Japanese yen rose pulling USD/JPY down.

On the H4 chart, the RSI, MACD, and Stochastic Indicators are all reporting the oversold state of the market. Indeed, the price has dropped to 108.50 yesterday and has been in a sideways movement since then. Very likely, it is preparing for a correction. An intermediary resistance level to check that may be located at 108.78 with the next one at 109.20. Otherwise, the support may be placed at 108.30.

Bank of Canada announces the interest rate

Today, the Bank of Canada will announce the interest rate. During the previous session, it was decided to keep it at 1.75%, the highest level since 2008. The policymakers did not express any inclination to change it. However, the governor Mr. Poloz commented that they would observe how well the dynamics of the Canadian economy perform within the context of the global slowdown. Hence, the steady rate signalling the resilience of the Canadian economy may boost the Canadian dollar.

 

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Currency market on December 5

More at: http://bit.ly/34T5Fhv

05.12.2019

Thursday's start has been quite eventful. The great pound's surge has been highlighting the day, while oil traders are cautiously awaiting the OPEC meeting. Read more about the main market movers below.
Disappointing economic data pulled the AUD down

While the level of retail sales showed a slowdown versus the expected advance by 0.3%, the Australian exports declined from 6.49 to 4.5 billion AUD. On H4, the Australian dollar has kicked off the resistance at 0.6848 and fell below the 200-period MA to the 0.6831 level. The price is trying to form the “Double top” pattern with the neckline at 0.6821. As soon as this level is broken, bears will be ready to move the aussie towards the lower target at 0.6810. The upside momentum is limited by the 0.6848 and 0.6855 levels.

The British pound has continued its bullish momentum

Today we’ve already explained what is going on with the British pound. You can read more about it here. On H4, GBP/USD continues to move up to May’s peak at 1.3170. If bulls manage to successfully break this level, the next resistance will be placed at 1.3220. In case of the reversal, watch at the supports at 1.3082 and 1.3050.

USD/MXN: More downside is possible

USD/MXN took advantage of the weak USD. On the 4-hour chart, the pair slid below the 50-period MA yesterday. Today, it has already tested the 100-period MA, which serves as strong support at 19.4270. In case of a breakout, we may expect further fall towards the 19.36 level. However, a stochastic oscillator formed a crossover in the oversold zone and RSI is looking up. That is why we may expect a short-term correction to 19.48 and 19.53.

 

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Currency market on December 6: the NFP Friday

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06.12.2019


Important events today: all around the USD

We can say that today is a Black Friday for currency markets – the American Non-Farm Payrolls are out. Although that is going to be the major market mover today, it is not the only one. Some more details are below.

American Non-Farm Payrolls, unemployment rate, and average hourly earnings are out at 15:30 MT time (13:30 GMT) – be careful with the volatility of USD and related currencies around the data release time

Canadian jobs data - 15:30 MT time (13:30 GMT)

OPEC will be concluding its round of discussions and meetings today

EUR/USD starts the day on a positive note

The price of EUR/USD has started this day by reconfirming the level of 1.1104 that it reached on Wednesday. It was a breakthrough of the month as the currency pair has never been that high since the first week of November. On the H4, the pair trades above the 200-period, 100-period and 50-period Moving Averages, which is another sign that there is a stronger bullish momentum than before. However, we still have to see how strong it is, and the resistance of 1.1130 may be a good level to check that. Today, a major factor influencing that will be the volatility of the USD in the context of relatively strong market expectations from the US Labor Authorities for the Non-Farm Payrolls and related data they are about to release.

USD/CAD waiting for the news

It is safe to assume that the consolidation of USD/CAD at the resistance level of 1.3185 reached on Thursday is a preparation for a more decisive move. There are some preliminary signs of a coming bullish trend to continue the correction after the serious drop at the beginning of the week. The Awesome Oscillator reached the low yesterday and reverted upwards signaling the general upward direction of the price. However, the next step will be defined by the release of the Non-Farm Payrolls due today from the US side and the jobs data due at the same time from the Canadian side. Therefore, watch the news and be careful with the coming price volatility.

USD against JPY and CHF

Against the Japanese yen and the Swiss franc, the American dollar shows similar patterns during the last two weeks. Both currency pairs dropped significantly on December 2-3, below the 200-period, 100-period, and 50-period MAs, and both are showing a mild correction since then, having bounced down on Thursday from the local resistance levels corresponding to each one. Although the internal and external contexts for the Swiss and the Japanese currencies are different, the common factors such as the Non-Farm Payrolls moving the USD will affect both in a similar way once again. That effect may be reinforced by the fact that both currencies are safe-haven and gain strength when the market feels uncertainty about the American dollar.

 

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5 important events this week will bring us

More at: http://bit.ly/2t70BbD

09.12.2019

The second half of this week is going to be well loaded with big events. All major currencies will be affected, for this reason, brace yourselves and prepare for some price action.
Main events

British monthly GDP growth rate (Tue, 11:30 MT time (09:30 GMT))The last two indicators of the monthly GDP growth rate have been at -0.1%. If the monthly GDP growth for October is better than the expected 0.1%, it will make the British pound rise.

Federal Funds Rate (Wed, 21:00 MT time (19:00 GMT)) The American financial authorities will announce the interest rate and release the monetary policy statement. They will also give the economic projections for the nearest future and explain the main issues behind the chosen monetary stance. Steady rate (currently at 1.75%) and positive perspectives will support the US dollar.

The British Parliament elections (Thu, all day)Finally, we will see the resolution of the months-long parliamentary debates and clarification of the coming course of development in Great Britain. Definitely, it is going to be a hard day for the British pound, but the victory of Boris Johnson would boost it.

ECB Main Refinancing Rate and Press Conference (Thu, 15:30 MT time (13:30 GMT))The European Central Bank will announce the interest rate, to which no change is expected (currently at 0%); more importantly, the ECB head Christine Lagarde will give a press conference, which will reveal the economic outlook of the euro area and the intentions of the monetary policy makers. A positive tone of the speech will strengthen the euro.

American monthly retails sales (Fri, 15:30 MT time (13:30 GMT))Although not a major indicator, still the retail sales give a very representative outlook on consumer sentiment. If the picture is more positive than the market expectation, the US dollar will rise.

Background tension

Strong jobs data provided by the Non-Farm Payrolls on December 6 boosted the US dollar. However, the upward movement of the US dollar does not gain full power as there still are serious concerns among the investors on the next stage of the US-China trade war. The deadline of December 15 for imposing new tariffs on the Chinese goods by the US is still in place, while the last comment from the US President Donald Trump was that he liked where the negotiations were going. This means that tensions will keep the market’s optimism in check until next Monday at the very least.

 
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