FCPO : Info & Analysis

[Sony_Boy]

Asian Crude Palm Oil Ends Down; Weak Cash Demand, Long Liquidation (12 Mar 2010)

Crude palm oil futures on Malaysia's derivatives exchange ended lower Friday as demand eased in the cash market and amid speculative long liquidation, trade participants said.

The benchmark May contract on Bursa Malaysia Derivatives ended MYR11 lower at MYR2,649 a metric ton, after trading in a MYR2,620-MYR2,650/ton range.

While fundamentals are tight, prices "are due for a correction after a sharp rise in the last few trading sessions," said a Malaysia-based exporter. "Once the liquidation is over, the market may find support from tightness in the cash market and rebound in the next trading session," a senior trading executive from Kuala Lumpur-based brokerage said.

Traders will be focusing on the supply tightness potential in Malaysia as February output fell 12.5% on month to 1.16 million tons, the lowest since last February, according to data from the government-linked Malaysian Palm Oil Board on March 10. A likely rise in exports in March may further ease palm oil inventories this month, an analyst from Singapore said.

Trade participants said March 1-15 palm oil exports will likely rise 9%-17% compared with a month ago to around 660,000 tons. Cargo surveyors Intertek Agri Services and SGS (Malaysia) Bhd. put Feb. 1-15 exports at 565,114-607,660 tons. Both surveyors are likely to issue export estimates Monday.

In the cash market, palm olein for April was traded at $822.50/ton and July/August/September at $807.50/ton and $810/ton, said a Singapore-based trading executive. Cash CPO for prompt shipment was offered MYR30 lower at MYR2,670/ton. Open interest on the BMD was 82,037 lots Friday, up from 81,554 lots Thursday. One lot is equivalent to 25 tons. A total of 17,096 lots of CPO were traded versus 17,096 lots Wednesday.

 

[miskhi]

aku berminat la nak maen FCPO nie..ble sape2 guide utk 1st step..nak kene daftar ape??

lagi satu minimum required margin skang bape?

 

[Sony_Boy]

aku berminat la nak maen FCPO nie..ble sape2 guide utk 1st step..nak kene daftar ape??

lagi satu minimum required margin skang bape?

pernah trading ke sebelum nih? kalau belum, saya syorkan belajar mengenai equities dulu, then baru ke futures market.. boleh selak2 di sini..Belajar main saham bersama goldfinger...

 

[Sony_Boy]

Palm oil futures reflect supply tightness (13 Mar 2010)

MALAYSIA'S palm oil futures ended down 0.41 per cent yesterday pressured by weaker rival soyoil and due to a stronger ringgit currency, but expectations of stronger exports narrowed loses, traders said. The benchmark May crude palm oil futures on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange fell 0.41 per cent, or RM11, to RM2,649 per tonne after hitting a low of RM2,620 on the day.

"Physical availability of palm oil is limited," said one trader at a local brokerage firm in Kuala Lumpur, and supplies for prompt shipment are tight, which should push up futures.
"The (futures) market will reflect tightness in the physical market, especially the nearby months," once positions have been liquidated, the trader said, adding that the stronger ringgit and weak soyoil prices have pushed down the market. Trades volumes were 17,107 lots of 25 tonnes each, compared to the usual 10,000 lots.

The ringgit gained almost half a per cent to 3.302 per US dollar, its highest level since Aug. 2008, as offshore investors bought in anticipation of further interest rate rises by the central bank after last week's surprise move. A stronger ringgit makes the vegetable oil more expensive for overseas buyers.

An expectation of better exports for the first fifteen days in March helped support the market, another trader said. Players expect exports to reach 660,000 tonnes in 1-15 March, up from 607,660 tonnes in the same period in February, the second trader said. Cargo surveyors are due to announce the exports data on Monday.

Oil was steady above US$82 (US$1.00 = RM3.34) yesterday, poised for a second consecutive weekly increase, on a weakening US dollar and as views emerged that energy demand would continue to grow in the developing world.-Agencies

 

[msauto75]

MALAYSIA'S palm oil futures ended down 0.41 per cent yesterday pressured by weaker rival soyoil and due to a stronger ringgit currency, but expectations of stronger exports narrowed loses, traders said. The benchmark May crude palm oil futures on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange fell 0.41 per cent, or RM11, to RM2,649 per tonne after hitting a low of RM2,620 on the day.

"Physical availability of palm oil is limited," said one trader at a local brokerage firm in Kuala Lumpur, and supplies for prompt shipment are tight, which should push up futures.
"The (futures) market will reflect tightness in the physical market, especially the nearby months," once positions have been liquidated, the trader said, adding that the stronger ringgit and weak soyoil prices have pushed down the market. Trades volumes were 17,107 lots of 25 tonnes each, compared to the usual 10,000 lots.

The ringgit gained almost half a per cent to 3.302 per US dollar, its highest level since Aug. 2008, as offshore investors bought in anticipation of further interest rate rises by the central bank after last week's surprise move. A stronger ringgit makes the vegetable oil more expensive for overseas buyers.

An expectation of better exports for the first fifteen days in March helped support the market, another trader said. Players expect exports to reach 660,000 tonnes in 1-15 March, up from 607,660 tonnes in the same period in February, the second trader said. Cargo surveyors are due to announce the exports data on Monday.

Oil was steady above US$82 (US$1.00 = RM3.34) yesterday, poised for a second consecutive weekly increase, on a weakening US dollar and as views emerged that energy demand would continue to grow in the developing world.-Agencies

salam,

bagaimanakah kia nk mendptkan maklumat terkini dan semasa untuk harga minyak dipasaran, harga soyoil dan harga ringgit berbanding dgn dollar. bkn apa, rasanya maklumat2 sebegini amat membantu untuk trader2 full time dan newcomer spt saya,

harap tuan sony dpt membantu.

 

[Sony_Boy]

salam,

bagaimanakah kia nk mendptkan maklumat terkini dan semasa untuk harga minyak dipasaran, harga soyoil dan harga ringgit berbanding dgn dollar. bkn apa, rasanya maklumat2 sebegini amat membantu untuk trader2 full time dan newcomer spt saya,

harap tuan sony dpt membantu.

salam, kalau nak realtime kena subscribe services mcm Telequote, atau Nextview..

 

[miskhi]

pernah trading ke sebelum nih? kalau belum, saya syorkan belajar mengenai equities dulu, then baru ke futures market.. boleh selak2 di sini..Belajar main saham bersama goldfinger...

trading forex pernah la..nak tanye cpo skang boleh monitor dan make order terus melalui platform ke?? bape minimum contract price skang?

 

[msauto75]

salam, kalau nak realtime kena subscribe services mcm Telequote, atau Nextview..

thanks,

boleh ke tuan sony berikan sedikit pandangan dan buah fikiran ttg urusniaga yg bakal dilangsungkan pd hr isnin nnt,

biasanya diakhir bulan, apakah yg biasanya berlaku, terutama pada trendnya, dan biasanya apa mood investor di akhir2 bulan urusniaga.

 

[Sony_Boy]

thanks,

boleh ke tuan sony berikan sedikit pandangan dan buah fikiran ttg urusniaga yg bakal dilangsungkan pd hr isnin nnt,

biasanya diakhir bulan, apakah yg biasanya berlaku, terutama pada trendnya, dan biasanya apa mood investor di akhir2 bulan urusniaga.

ler, takyah ler bertuan2.. saya pun masih belajar. belum masta..

external factor bearish, overnight soybean oil jatuh lebih 1%.. besok di buka rendah, possible correction mood still continue.. sellers still in the market.. pada hari yg sama, cargo surveyors akan keluarkan export data untuk 1-15 March..

trading forex pernah la..nak tanye cpo skang boleh monitor dan make order terus melalui platform ke?? bape minimum contract price skang?

yang saya tau Kenanga Futures dan Amfutures ada sediakan DMA platform. saya still trade thru member broker.. 1 contract FCPO sekarang @ RM4,500/-

 

[Sony_Boy]

CPO futures --Test for RM2,630 support level (15 Mar 2010)

OBSERVATIONS: The RM2,700 to RM2,725 a tonne area has become a zone of fear - fear that long (buy) positions entered into within that zone would be money-losing propositions. That's because that's the area where, last week, not only many dreams of riches have turned to dust, many market players suffered heavy losses to boot!

The problem was because, try as as it did, this market just could not breach the long-term RM2,725 overhead resistance level. And it was not for want for trying. This market made passes, for four consecutive days (Monday through Thursday), above the RM2,700 level. But although it kept plugging away it got stonewalled in every attempt it made to breach the RM2,725 resistance level.

Market bulls, exhausted and frustrated by the end of last week, changed tack last Friday, attempted to nail down profits by liquidating long contracts and pocketing whatever profits were still available for the taking. In the event the May 2010 contract slumped, settling at RM2,649 for a RM21 or 0.79 per cent loss over the week.

What happened is that the RM2,725 overhead resistance level has become even more resistant - maybe even super resistant - to future attempts at rallies to stage breakouts above that level. The unfortunate part - for the bulls - was that the many failures to breach that overhead resistance were not for want of encouraging news and positive developments.

The latest March -10 combined export estimates from Societe Generale de Surveillance and Intertek Agri Services averaged 450,000 tonnes, up 59,000 tonnes or 15.61 per cent compared to that for the corresponding period in February.

And the Malaysian Palm Oil Board put end-February 2010 stocks at 1,785,333 tonnes, which not only was lower by some 218,000 tonnes or 10.90 per cent from that at the end of January 2010 but also the lowest stocks have been since September 2009, when stocks were figured at 1,579,252 tonnes.

Conclusion: This market will, in all probability, fall in early trade this week to test the RM2,630 immediate support level. A decisive breakdown below that support level will mark not only the end to the February through early March RM2,400-RM2,720 short-term bull run, it also will signal the start to a new short-term bear phase.-Bernama

The subject expressed above is based purely on technical analysis and opinions of the writer. It is not a solicitation to buy or sell.