FCPO : Info & Analysis

[Sony_Boy]

Crude Palm Oil Ends Up; Bullish Outlook, Short Covering (04 Mar 2010)

Crude palm oil futures on Malaysia’s derivatives exchange ended sharply higher Thursday as bullish supply fundamentals prompted a rush to cover short positions. Bullish statements by top oilseed analyst Thomas Mielke ahead of a palm oil conference also sent prices higher towards the end of the trading day, trade participants said.

The benchmark May contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives ended MYR39 higher at MYR2,674 a metric ton, after rising as much as 2% to an intraday high of MYR2,686/ton, its highest level since Jan. 6.

"CPO futures may rise higher tomorrow after breaching key resistance at MYR2,660 today…Expect prices to rise to the MYR2,700/ton level," a senior executive from Kuala Lumpur-based commodities brokerage said.

CPO output in Malaysia may rise only 1.1% to 17.8 million tons in 2010, Mielke told Dow Jones Newswires. The forecast is lower than the government forecast of 18.1 million tons. Many traders said the data helped support, if not increase prices. Mielke also said that soymeal and soybean prices may come under pressure as more soybeans are crushed in the March-August period. "But soyoil prices will need to rise to finance a larger share of the crushing value. Soyoil's portion of the combined soymeal production is expected to appreciate to 50% or more from the current 42%," Mielke said.

In the cash market, palm olein for March was traded at $810/ton, and July/August/September at $800-$810/ton, said a Singapore-based broker. Cash CPO for prompt shipment was offered MYR40 higher at MYR2,685/ton. Open interest on the BMD was 80,556 lots Thursday, up from 80,375 lots Wednesday. One lot is equivalent to 25 tons. A total of 16,754 lots of CPO were traded versus 9,242 lots Wednesday.

 

[Bionik]

Crude palm oil futures on Malaysia’s derivatives exchange ended sharply higher Thursday as bullish supply fundamentals prompted a rush to cover short positions. Bullish statements by top oilseed analyst Thomas Mielke ahead of a palm oil conference also sent prices higher towards the end of the trading day, trade participants said.

The benchmark May contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives ended MYR39 higher at MYR2,674 a metric ton, after rising as much as 2% to an intraday high of MYR2,686/ton, its highest level since Jan. 6.

"CPO futures may rise higher tomorrow after breaching key resistance at MYR2,660 today…Expect prices to rise to the MYR2,700/ton level," a senior executive from Kuala Lumpur-based commodities brokerage said.

CPO output in Malaysia may rise only 1.1% to 17.8 million tons in 2010, Mielke told Dow Jones Newswires. The forecast is lower than the government forecast of 18.1 million tons. Many traders said the data helped support, if not increase prices. Mielke also said that soymeal and soybean prices may come under pressure as more soybeans are crushed in the March-August period. "But soyoil prices will need to rise to finance a larger share of the crushing value. Soyoil's portion of the combined soymeal production is expected to appreciate to 50% or more from the current 42%," Mielke said.

In the cash market, palm olein for March was traded at $810/ton, and July/August/September at $800-$810/ton, said a Singapore-based broker. Cash CPO for prompt shipment was offered MYR40 higher at MYR2,685/ton. Open interest on the BMD was 80,556 lots Thursday, up from 80,375 lots Wednesday. One lot is equivalent to 25 tons. A total of 16,754 lots of CPO were traded versus 9,242 lots Wednesday.

Mr Sony, dulu u kata u tinggal di UK. Tapi main FCPO BMD ni apa citer? Hahaha...kantoi!

 

[Sony_Boy]

Mr Sony, dulu u kata u tinggal di UK. Tapi main FCPO BMD ni apa citer? Hahaha...kantoi!

mintak maaf cpo traders, off topic skit..

hello bro, nih bukan zaman P.Ramlee, cross border trading dah wujud lama. ko duk terpencil kat Afrika pun boleh buat trading kalau ada internet connection.. warga CG sini pun ada yg duk luar Malaysia, so apa yg kantoinyer?..

 

[Sony_Boy]

Asian Crude Palm Oil Ends Down; Choppy Trade; Outlook Awaited (05 Mar 2010)

Crude palm oil futures on Malaysia's derivatives exchange ended lower Friday as participants weighed palm's narrowing discount to rival soyoil against expected bullish price forecasts that may be released at a vegetable oils conference next week, trade participants said.

The benchmark May contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives ended MYR4 lower at MYR2,670 a metric ton in choppy trade that saw prices swinging between positive and negative territories.

CPO futures rose to a two-month high of MYR2,700/ton toward midday trade, "fueled by the slew of positive news in the past few days ahead of the industry conference," said Govindlal Patel, managing partner at Mumbai-based edible oils importer Dipak Enterprise. He said CPO prices may even rise to MYR2,800 if noted analyst like Dorab Mistry, James Fry and Thomas Mielke release bullish price forecasts next week.

Malaysia's CPO output in 2010 may only rise by 1.1% to 17.8 million tons, according to Mielke, which is below a government forecast of 18.1 million tons. Palm oil output for 2009 was at 17.6 million tons, based on recent data from government-linked Malaysian Palm Oil Board. Such bullish news prompted a short uptrend in prices, trade participants said.

But palm's narrowing discount to soyoil may cap a sharp rise in prices, said a Kuala Lumpur-based senior trading executive. Palm and soyoil prices move in tandem as both compete for similar export destinations. "The market turned volatile as investors squared off their positions ahead of next week's conference and key production, exports and stocks data from MPOB," he said.

In the cash market, palm olein for March was offered $2.50 higher at $820/ton, while April/May/June was offered $2.50 higher at $820/ton. Cash CPO for prompt shipment was offered MYR5 lower at MYR2,680/ton. Open interest on the BMD was 81,079 lots Friday, up from 80,556 lots Thursday. One lot is equivalent to 25 tons. A total of 17,321 lots of CPO were traded versus 16,754 lots Thursday.

 

[Sony_Boy]

CPO futures expected to be firmer (06 Mar 2010)

Crude palm oil (CPO) futures on Bursa Malaysia Derivatives are expected to be firmer on expectation of upbeat forecasts at an industry conference next week, dealers said. Bursa Malaysia will host the annual Palm and Lauric Oils Conference and Exhibition: Price Outlook 2010/2011 on March 9 and 10 in Kuala Lumpur.

"All prominent market experts will assemble next week to share views on the development and challenges of the palm oil industry, including the price outlook for this year," said one of the dealers. Industry regulator, the Malaysian Palm Oil Board, is also due to release the figures on palm oil exports, output and stocks for February on Wednesday.

At the same time, cargo surveyors Intertek Testing Services and Societe Generale de Surveillance are scheduled to release their forecasts for palm oil exports for the first 10 days of February. Concerns over lower output could also pull up the prices, said another dealer. "Palm oil stocks are expected to decline as the low production cycle, which started in December, will continue until April and the market is going to be supportive," he said. According to market talks, February's palm oil stocks could be between 1.85 million and 1.9 million tonnes, lower than January's stock figures of two million tonnes.

For next week, most traders are predicting an upward bias in rangebound trade, with the support level at RM2,600 per tonne and resistance at RM2,720 per tonne. The local CPO market will also track closely the performance of soyoil prices on the Chicago Board of Trade, according to the dealers. Palm oil and soybean are widely used for edible oil worldwide.

On a Friday-to-Friday basis, the CPO futures contract for March 2010 delivery climbed by RM81 to RM2,676 per tonne while April 2010 went up RM87 to RM2,677 per tonne. CPO futures for May 2010 contract rose by RM75 to RM2,670 per tonne and June 2010 was RM85 higher at RM2,664 per tonne. The week's turnover stood at 81,079 lots, up from last week's 56,619 lots, while open position declined to 81,079 contracts on Friday from 82,981 contracts at the end of last week.

On the physical market, March South was traded higher at RM2,680 per tonne on Friday compared with RM2,605 per tonne previously. - Bernama

 

[Sony_Boy]

Narrowing Soyoil-CPO Gap, Supply In Focus At Malaysia Conference (08 Mar 2010)

International vegetable-oil industry participants will likely focus on the diminishing differential between soyoil and crude palm oil prices against a backdrop of decelerating vegetable-oil supply growth and accelerating demand when Bursa Malaysia''s Palm Oil Conference and Price Outlook opens Tuesday.

Production growth of CPO in Indonesia and Malaysia, which are responsible for four-fifths of global palm oil output, is slowing even as South America harvests a record crop of soybeans this year, accounting for a narrow discount of CPO to soyoil that will likely remain comparatively small this year.

"The most crucial point for 2010 will be production, production and production," Dorab Mistry, top vegetable-oil analyst and director at Godrej International, told Dow Jones Newswires.
Mistry said Malaysia''s CPO output may decline for the second straight year in 2010.

Thomas Mielke, another notable vegetable-oil analyst, reckoned Malaysia''s output may only rise 1.1%, to 17.8 million tons, pointing to an El-Nino induced dry spell that will likely shrink oil palm yields.

Vegoil Demand Still Strong

Defying forecasts that vegetable-oil consumption would drop last year due to the global recession, demand for palm oil, which is used for cooking, cosmetics and as feedstock for biodiesel, was brisk. Palm oil imports in India and China--two of the world''s largest vegetable oil buyers--rose 33% and 23%, respectively, to 7 million and 6.4 million tons in 2009, helping to boost CPO prices by 53% in the 12-month period.

Vegetable-oil demand is expected to grow further, as governments determined to address energy security concerns are setting mandates for biofuel production. Mandatory biofuel blending and demand induced by incentives in some countries, irrespective of market conditions, will boost prices of vegetable oils used as feedstock for biodiesel and bioethanol, and in turn, of food commodities, the United Nations'' Food And Agriculture Organization said in a recent report. And as global dependence on vegetable oils increases, any disruption to palm oil supply may fuel a surge in CPO prices.

BMD-CME Tie-Up Of Interest

Discussion of a tie-up between stock exchange operator Bursa Malaysia Bhd., with CME Group, the world''s largest and most diverse derivatives marketplace is also likely to animate discussions at the conference, a gathering of more than 1,500 delegates.

Though palm oil is the most consumed vegetable oil in the world, trading volume for its futures contracts on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives is dwarfed by soyoil volume at the Chicago Board of Trade. To boost palm oil''s liquidity, Bursa Malaysia last year signed a strategic partnership agreement with CME Group (CME), which operates CBOT, as part of a move to develop Malaysia''s derivative market.

Part of the tie-up included the licensing of BMD CPO futures settlement price to CME--to develop a dollar-denominated cash-settled CPO futures contract, likely to be listed on one of CME''s four exchanges in May, industry participants said. An eventual transfer of all BMD products to CME''s Globex platform is expected around August.

"The tie up between BMD and CME is exciting, and has the potential to make CPO a major internationally traded product," Mistry said. "The important fact is that palm oil is going to be the dominant vegetable oil in the world. Therefore it needs a worldwide platform and the BMD-CME tie up will give it that scope."


BMD CPO Up; Market Focus On CPO-Soyoil Discount

BMD CPO futures up; palm oil conference to focus on diminishing differential between soyoil, crude palm oil prices, say participants. As CPO output expected to decline in next few years, soyoil output seen up, likely prompting CPO prices to narrow discount to soyoil, say participants at conference. "This could have two effects: first, it could prompt buyers to switch to soyoil as CPO prices go up, but if global vegoil supply is relatively low to demand, then it could lead to a bullish scenario for all vegoils, including CPO," says Kuala Lumpur-based trader. Benchmark May CPO contract up MYR16 at MYR2,686/ton.

 

[Sony_Boy]

BMD CPO Up; Prices Gaining Ahead Of Conference (08 Mar 2010)

BMD CPO futures up; participants expect bullish comments from palm oil conference, which starts tomorrow, say traders. "Some traders are trying to push up prices ahead of speeches by noted vegoil analysts like Thomas Mielke and Dorab Mistry. The analysts are likely to make bullish forecasts for CPO prices," says Kuala Lumpur-based trader. Mielke, Mistry have said CPO production may decline in coming years, resulting in higher CPO prices. Benchmark May CPO contract up MYR39 at MYR2,709/ton.

 

[Sony_Boy]

Crude Palm Oil Ends Up; Market Expects Bullish Forecasts (08 Mar 2010)

Crude palm oil futures on Malaysia’s derivatives exchange ended higher Monday as participants anticipated bullish news from a palm oil conference due to start tomorrow, trade participants said.

The benchmark May contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives ended MYR39 higher at MYR2,709 a metric ton, after trading in a range of MYR2,675-MYR2,722/ton. Higher crude oil and soyoil futures in after-hours trade also provided support for CPO prices, enabling prices to settle above today's resistance level of MYR2,700.

Noted vegetable oils analyst Dorab Mistry is expected to speak tomorrow at the conference in Kuala Lumpur. "There's a feeling Mistry may forecast CPO prices to rise to MYR3,000/ton this year. This is fuelling a bullish sentiment in the market and many are eager to push CPO prices up in anticipation of such a positive forecast," said a Singapore-based trader.

Traders said CPO prices are likely to rise this week and should hold above MYR2,700 but cautioned that prices may fall after the excitement over the conference dies. "Analysts like Mistry and (Thomas) Mielke have been notoriously bullish about the vegoils market the last few years, and they've succeeded in whipping market participants into a frenzy with their forecasts, but the initial price rises are usually followed by a fall in prices once the excitement dies and fundamentals weigh in," a Kuala Lumpur-based trader said.

Traders said CPO prices are likely to remain bullish this month as production remains lower versus the previous month, but exports may be weak due to a lack of festive celebrations to fuel purchases. "Production is likely to rise next month and if exports continue to be weak, the market will be hard pressed to push CPO prices to MYR3,000," said another Kuala Lumpur-based trader.

Traders said analysts such as Mistry and Mielke are likely to forecast bullish CPO prices based on their estimates that countries like Malaysia, the world's second-largest producer of palm oil, will see a decline in production. "Even if that may be true, Indonesia's production will likely make up for Malaysia's shortfall. Both countries together make up a sizeable chunk of the world's vegoil production and with soyoil production tipped to be on the rise, global vegoil output should correspond with any increases in demand," a Singapore-based trader said.

In the cash market, palm olein for March was offered at $840/ton. Cash CPO for prompt shipment was offered MYR40 higher at MYR2,720/ton. Open interest on the BMD was 81,795 lots Monday, up from 81,079 lots Friday. One lot is equivalent to 25 tons. A total of 6,388 lots of CPO were traded versus 17,321 lots Friday.

 

[Sony_Boy]

CPO To Comprise 40% Global Vegoil Market By 2015 - Sime Darby Exec

Crude palm oil is likely to account for 40% market share or 64.5 million metric tons of global vegetable oil consumption by 2015, an industry executive said Tuesday.

Palm oil, the cheapest edible oil, will remain the most consumed oil in the world and its market share may rise to 46% or around 94 million tons by 2020, Azhar Abdul Hamid, managing director at Sime Darby Plantation, said at an industry conference.

"Demand will always outstrip supply," he said. Palm oil currently accounts for 34% or 44 million tons in the global vegetable oil market.

 

[Sony_Boy]

BMD CPO Tad Up; Market Awaits Key Forecasts (09 Mar 2010)

BMD CPO futures tad up as participants await news from palm oil conference, say traders. Benchmark May CPO contract up MYR1 at MYR2,710, after trading in negative territory morning on weak crude oil, soyoil futures. Vegoil analyst Dorab Mistry to speak afternoon, expected to give bullish CPO price forecast; comments likely to push prices up, say traders.


CPO Prices To Average MYR2,400-MYR3,300/Ton In 2010 -Analyst Frick

(Dow Jones)–Crude palm oil prices are expected to average between MYR2,400-MYR3,300 a metric ton in 2010, as supply of the commodity isn't likely to outpace rising demand, an oilseed analyst said Tuesday.

Soyoil prices could average between 36 cents and 46 cents a pound this year as soyoil prices will need to rise to finance a larger share of soymeal crushing value, Anne Frick, senior oilseed analyst at Prudential Bache Commodities LLC said at an industry conference.

"Soyoil's share (in combined soymeal production) may peak to 50% this year," she said.