FCPO : Info & Analysis

[Sony_Boy]

Asian Crude Palm Oil Ends Down, At Crucial Support Level (18 Feb 2010)

Crude palm oil futures on Malaysia's derivatives exchange weakened Thursday to close at a key support level as declines in crude oil and soyoil futures weighed on sentiment, trade participants said. Still, traders said a sustained break below the immediate support isn't likely this week as market participants are reluctant to make big bets with many investors sidelined during the week-long holiday in China.

The benchmark May CPO contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives ended MYR28 lower at MYR2,600 a metric ton, a crucial psychological support level, after trading in a narrow range of MYR2,600-MYR2,617.

The Chinese are the biggest buyers of CPO, and with Chinese markets still closed for the Lunar New Year celebrations, trade was sluggish and investors looked more to external cues rather than to generally supportive supply-demand fundamentals.

As crude oil and soyoil futures headed lower during Asian trading hours, CPO prices followed suit. Towards the end of trade on the BMD, crude oil futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange were down $0.79 at $75.48 a barrel. March soyoil futures on the electronic Chicago Board of Trade were down 15 points at 38.60 cents a pound.

"Apart from thin trade resulting in prices not moving all that much, CPO prices didn't breach the MYR2,600 support as bullish local fundamentals such as falling production mean supply might be affected in the near future," said a Kuala Lumpur-based trader. Traders estimate production is likely to fall by around 10% in February and even more in March.

"Many participants are waiting for the Chinese to return to the market before making any moves. Perhaps by next week we'll have a better picture of where CPO price levels should be, but there's a strong likelihood the support level of MYR2,600 will hold this week," another Kuala Lumpur-based trader said.

In the cash market, palm olein for April/May/June delivery traded at $800/ton, a Singapore-based trader said. Cash CPO for prompt shipment was offered MYR20 lower at MYR2,630/ton. Open interest on the BMD was 81,347 lots Thursday, up from 79,210 lots Wednesday. One lot is equivalent to 25 tons. Some 9,967 lots of CPO were traded versus 14,161 lots Wednesday.

 

[Sony_Boy]

Crude Palm Oil Ends Down After Fed Rate Move; More Downside Likely (19 Feb 2010)

Crude palm oil futures on Malaysia's derivatives exchange ended lower Friday after the U.S Federal Reserve's decision to raise its discount rate pushed the dollar higher. But commodity prices in Asia, including palm oil, are still vulnerable to further declines next week, when volume is expected to pick up, trade participants said.

The benchmark May CPO contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives ended MYR4 lower at MYR2,596 a metric ton, with 11,910 lots traded, well below average volume on the BMD of 14,000-16,000 lots.

"The move by the Fed may lead to temporary selling pressure on the BMD in the next trading session," said a trading executive from Jakarta. "CPO futures may ease to around MYR2,500-MYR2,550 next week, when the Chinese traders return after a long break." Crude oil and soyoil futures remained in negative territory in Asian trade, preventing a sustained rise in palm oil prices, which briefly spiked above the MYR2,600 psychological level to an intraday high of MYR2,609/ton.

Light, sweet crude oil for March delivery reached an intraday high of $79.29 Thursday, buoyed by U.S. inventory data that showed distillate stocks fell more than expected, but then tumbled to below $78 a barrel during Asian trading. March soyoil on the Chicago Board of Trade was trading 29 points lower at 38.41 cents a pound by the end of trade on the BMD.

Palm oil futures held above MYR2,550 despite a sharp fall in other commodities because "supply-demand fundamentals are still rather supportive," a Singapore-based trading executive said. "Output in February and March is expected to fall, and this may reduce Malaysia's palm oil inventories, which is bullish for palm prices," he said. Palm oil output in January declined 13% to 1.32 million tons, the lowest level in nine months, trimming palm inventories to 2.0 million tons from 2.24 million tons in December, based on recent data from the government-linked Malaysian Palm Oil Board.

In the cash market, palm olein for April/May/June delivery traded at $790/ton, $792.50/ton and $795/ton a Singapore-based trader said. Cash CPO for prompt shipment was offered at MYR2,610/ton. Open interest on the BMD was 77,109 lots Friday, down from 81,347 lots Thursday. One lot is equivalent to 25 tons.

 

[syamjpj]

bro sony boy takda new free ke??

 

[asmara]

bro sony boy takda new free ke??

cpo in buy mood

 

[Sony_Boy]

Crude Palm Oil Ends Up Slightly After Hitting Six-Week High (23 Feb 2010)

bro sony boy takda new free ke??

tenggelam timbul, kena dera ngan anak.. )

Crude palm oil futures on Malaysia’s derivatives exchange ended mostly higher Tuesday, as a continuing El Nino climate event may sap yields and cut output with production already seasonally low.

The benchmark May CPO contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives rose as much as 1.2% to a fresh six-week high at MYR2,662 a metric ton on short covering and speculative buying, before ending MYR4 higher at MYR2,635/ton.

Malaysia’s key palm-oil producing states of Johor and Sabah are experiencing drier weather which may aggravate biological stress in trees and sap oil yields, analysts and traders said. The two states contribute around 19.3% of global CPO output, UOBKayHian said in a research note today. Malaysia contributes 41% of global CPO production.

El Nino is an occasional seasonal warming of the central and eastern Pacific Ocean that upsets normal weather patterns from the western seaboard of Latin America to east Africa. “CPO’s supply fundamentals have turned bullish and may offset the marginal decline in export demand,” a Kuala Lumpur-based trading executive said. Prices may rise in the next trading session to around MYR2,667-MYR2,678, she said.

Meanwhile, Indonesia’s PT KPB Nusantara, a unit of PT Perkebunan Nusantara, sold 3,500 metric tons of crude palm oil offered in a government auction, it said in a statement Tuesday. But a further 1,000 tons of CPO also offered in the auction remained unsold after PT KPB withdrew its offer, as the bids were lower than its offer prices of IDR7,462-IDR7,513/kg.

In the cash market, palm olein for April/May/June delivery traded at $800/ton, $805/ton and $815/ton, and for July/August/September delivery at $797.50/ton, $805/ton and $807.50/ton, a Singapore-based trading executive said. Cash CPO for prompt shipment was offered MYR10 higher at MYR2,660/ton. Open interest on the BMD was 82,196 lots Tuesday, up from 81,398 lots Monday. One lot is equivalent to 25 tons. Some 15,847 lots of CPO were traded versus 11,203 lots Friday.

 

[Sony_Boy]

CPO Ends Down, Below MYR2,600/Ton; Likely Lower Exports, Crude (24 Feb 2010)

UPDATE :Crude palm oil futures on Malaysia's derivatives exchange ended lower Wednesday as investors liquidated long positions in anticipation of likely lower palm oil exports during the Feb. 1-25 period. Prices fell below the MYR2,600 a metric ton psychological level toward the end of trade on the BMD as investors fear demand may decline further due to a narrowing price gap between palm oil and its rival soyoil, said trade participants.

The benchmark May CPO contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives fell MYR45 or 1.7% to end at an intraday low of MYR2,590/ton.

The price gap between palm oil, used in the manufacture of food products and as feedstock for biodiesel, and soyoil, a substitute, has narrowed to $40/ton from $100/ton in December last year, said an executive from a Singapore-based trading firm. Prices may ease further in the next trading session to MYR2,550/ton if crude oil extends its decline, he said.

The benchmark Nymex April light, sweet crude contract was trading 47 cents lower at $78.39 a barrel at 1000 GMT.

Trade participants said palm oil exports may have declined 11%-15% on month to around 1.03 million to 1.08 million tons for the Feb. 1-25 period. Cargo surveyors put palm oil shipments at 1.21 million tons for the same period in January. Cargo surveyors Intertek Agri Services and SGS (Malaysia) Bhd. are expected to issue export data Thursday. "Cargo movements out of the country have been a tad slow this month due to the shorter trading month and Lunar New Year holidays. Exports for the whole month (of February) are likely to be 10%-16% lower," said a Malaysia-based shipping executive.

In the cash market, palm olein for March shipment traded at $802.50/ton and April/May/June at $802.50/ton, said a Singapore-based trading executive. Cash CPO for prompt shipment was offered MYR50 lower at MYR2,610/ton. Open interest on the BMD was 83,180 lots Wednesday, up from 82,196 lots Tuesday. One lot is equivalent to 25 tons. Some 11,714 lots of CPO were traded versus 15,847 lots Tuesday.

 

[Sony_Boy]

Crude Palm Oil Ends Little Changed In Volatile Trade (25 Feb 2010)

Crude palm oil futures on Malaysia’s derivatives exchange ended little changed Thursday after moving both ways in volatile trade amid profit-taking and liquidation of positions ahead of the long weekend, trade participants said. CPO futures opened up in the early session but gave up early gains, tumbling below MYR2,600 a metric ton despite assurances by the U.S. Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke that interest rates may remain low for a while.

The benchmark May CPO contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives ended MYR5 higher at MYR2,596 after moving in a MYR2,580-MYR2,615/ton range. The markets will be closed for a national holiday Friday.

A likely drawdown in palm inventories despite lower palm oil shipments prevented a significant fall in prices, as output is expected to be lower in February and March due to dry weather and the ongoing oil palm replanting program, traders and analysts said. “Lower output and inventories may keep CPO futures steady at MYR2,550-MYR2,650/ton next week,” said a Kuala Lumpur-based trading executive.

Cargo surveyor Intertek Agri Services put Feb. 1-25 palm oil exports at 1.09 million tons, down 10% on month. Another surveyor, SGS (Malaysia) Bhd., estimated exports declined 8.9% to 1.10 million tons. Cargo surveyors put palm oil shipments at 1.21 million tons for the same period in January.

In Indonesia, PT KPB Nusantara, a unit of PT Perkebunan Nusantara, said it sold 1,500 tons of CPO offered in a government auction Thursday. But a further 500 tons remained unsold, as the bids were lower than its offer price of IDR7462 a kilogram.

In the cash market, palm olein for April/May/June traded at $795/ton, July/August/September traded at $795/ton, said a Singapore-based trading executive. Cash CPO for prompt shipment was offered MYR5 lower at MYR2,605/ton. Open interest on the BMD was 82,981 lots Thursday, down from 83,180 lots Wednesday. One lot is equivalent to 25 tons. Some 17,856 lots of CPO were traded versus 11,714 lots Wednesday.

 

[Sony_Boy]

Crude Palm Oil Ends Higher As Other Commodities Rally (01 Mar 2010)

Crude palm oil futures on Malaysia’s derivatives exchange ended higher Monday despite a drop in palm oil exports last month as strong gains in metals and crude oil boosted sentiment, trade participants said.

The benchmark May CPO contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives ended MYR35, or 1%, higher at MYR2,630 after rising to a one-week high at MYR2,638/ton.

Palm oil prices were also supported by a weaker dollar, trade participants said. Light, sweet crude oil on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose as much as 96 cents to $80.62 a barrel during Asian trading hours. May soyoil on the Chicago Board of Trade was trading up 21 points at 39.91 cents a pound towards the end of trade on BMD. In the next few trading sessions, however, palm oil prices may have limited upside due to a narrowing discount to soyoil prices and a record South American soybean harvest, a Kuala Lumpur-based broker said.

Cargo surveyor Intertek Agri Services reported Monday that Malaysia’s palm oil exports declined 19% to around 1.21 million in February, while SGS (Malaysia) Bhd. estimated a drop of 16% to 1.25 million tons. Major palm oil buyers including India and China cut purchases. Intertek data showed exports to the Indian subcontinent were down 26% on month to 261,105 tons. SGS data showed that exports to India and Pakistan declined 24% to 105,025 tons and 33% to 126,570 tons, respectively, while shipments to China fell around 19% to 340,315 tons.

Separately, Indonesian Trade Minister Mari Pangestu said CPO prices may average around $700-$750/ton, or around MYR2,300-MYR2,500/ton, this year with support from a growing appetite for the versatile commodity, which is used in the manufacture of food and cosmetics and as feedstock for biodiesel. The government will “continue to monitor and scrutinize environmental trade policy measures (of the E.U.) that may impede palm oil trade,” she said. Under a Renewable Energy Directive, the E.U. has developed regulations that may restrict the entry of biofuels, including the import of palm oil as a biofuel feedstock, that might be challenged by Malaysian and Indonesia under World Trade Organization rules.

In the cash market, palm olein for July/August/September traded at $795/ton and October/November/December at $800/ton, a Singapore-based trading executive said. Cash CPO for prompt shipment was offered MYR45 higher at MYR2,650/ton. Open interest on the BMD was 82,428 lots Monday, down from 82,981 lots Thursday. One lot is equivalent to 25 tons. The market was closed for a public holiday on Friday. Some 15,974 lots of CPO were traded versus 17,856 lots Thursday.

 

[Sony_Boy]

Crude Palm Oil Ends Down On Profit-Taking, Soyoil (02 Mar 2010)

Crude palm oil futures on Malaysia’s derivatives exchange ended lower Tuesday as investors took cues from weaker soyoil to book profits, said trade participants. Prices briefly fell below MYR2,600 a metric ton in afternoon trade but came off their lows as a likely fall in February palm oil output lent support.

The benchmark May CPO contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives ended MYR18 or 0.7% lower at MYR2,612/ton after moving in both positive and negative territory.

Before the end of trade on BMD, a Hong Kong-based trading executive said prices would likely end above the MYR2,600-MYR2,610/ton level. “Most market participants, including the speculators, have taken on a bullish stance ahead of a positive price outlook by vegetable oil analysts next week,” said S. Paramalingam, executive director at brokerage Pelindung Bestari Sdn. Bhd. He said CPO futures may remain rangebound ahead of next week’s industry conference beginning March 8. With February output expected to be lower, prices may rise over the next few trading sessions,” said a trading executive from Singapore.

Palm oil output in Malaysia and Indonesia has been tapering off as oil palm trees go into a low-output cycle. Malaysia’s palm oil inventories eased from a 13-month high of 2.24 million tons in December to 2.0 million tons in January. Palm oil reserves may have eased further, as output in February may have declined by 10%, according to plantation company officials and trading executives.

External cues like soyoil and crude oil futures continued to influence palm oil prices. May soyoil on the Chicago Board of Trade was trading 8 points lower at 39.82 cents a pound on e-CBOT by the end of trade on the BMD. Light, sweet crude on the New York Mercantile Exchange was trading 2 cents lower at $78.68 a barrel at 1015 GMT.

Cash CPO prices were offered MYR25 lower at MYR2,625/ton. In the cash market, RBD palm olein for July/August/September was traded at $795/ton and March shipment at $805/ton, said a Singapore-based broker. Open interest on the BMD was 82,710 lots Tuesday, up from 82,428 lots Monday. One lot is equivalent to 25 tons. Some 11,872 lots of CPO were traded versus 15,974 lots Monday.

 

[Sony_Boy]

Asian Crude Palm Oil Ends Up On Tight Supply, Short Covering (03 Mar 2010)

Crude palm oil futures on Malaysia’s derivatives exchange rose by as much as 1.0% Wednesday, erasing previous losses as investors covered their shorts on tight palm oil supply in Malaysia, trade participants and analysts said.

The benchmark May CPO contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives ended MYR23 or 0.9% higher at MYR2,635 a metric ton after moving in MYR2,618-MYR2,639/ton range.

“The impact (on oil palms) from the dry spell during the July-September period last year may have magnified the drop in palm oil output,” said James Ratnam, senior research analyst at Kuala Lumpur-based brokerage TA Securities. A prolonged dry spell lasting two successive months would normally have a six-seven-month delayed impact on oil palm production.

Palm oil output in Malaysia and Indonesia has been tapering off as plantations go into a low-output cycle. The impact of last year’s dry spell may lead to a sharp drop in output in February-March period, said a company executive from Malaysia-based major plantation firm. Output may have dropped by around 15% in February compared with January, he said.

Lower palm oil output may have also reduced palm oil inventories from 2.0 million tons as at end-January to around 1.92 million tons in February. Given an oil palm “replanting program that started end-2008, this palm oil output isn’t likely to be much higher than 2009’s 17.6 million tons,” TA’s Ratnam said.

In the cash market, RBD palm olein for April/May/June was traded at $807.50/ton, $810/ton and July/August/September at $800/ton, a Singapore-based broker said. Open interest on the BMD was 80,375 lots Wednesday, down from 82,710 lots Tuesday. One lot is equivalent to 25 tons. Some 9,242 lots of CPO were traded versus 11,872 lots Tuesday.