FCPO : Info & Analysis

[Sony_Boy]

Run CPO Run

CPO price is set for another rally and sentiment on plantation stocks will follow. The most widely traded palm oil future (KO3 Comdty; Last RM2,562/t) has closed above its technical and psychological resistant of RM2,500/t which is bullish from technical analysis point of view. This is also supported by demand supply fundamental 1) palm oil enters seasonally low production period 2) slower than expected soybean planting in Latin America and 3) resilient demand from emerging economies such as Chindia. Despite the recent rally, plantation stocks is still 17%-75% below its 2007-08 peak vs. 11% below peak of JCI and 16% below peak of KLCI.

CPO closed at RM2,562/t on Friday. Bullish.
Following the May peak of RM2,905/t CPO fell 30% bottoming at RM2,030 in July. Since then CPO has been trading sideways for more than four months, forming support at RM2,030-2,100 and resistance at RM2,472-2,500/t. Price action is now approaching the RM2,472-2,500/t resistance zone. A break above this cited resistance area would be bullish and would most likely lead to a test of next resistance at RM2,905/t, the May peak (Our technical guru Laurence Balanco).

Problem starts to emerge in Brazil and Argentina soybean
At the beginning of planting seasons in Oct, market expects bumper harvest from both Argentina and Brazil, a 2nd and 3rd largest soybean producers. Argentina faced drought in early Nov. Speed of planting is behind average, seed planted are of less quality. Risk to bumper harvest increased. Everything in Brazil looks fine until mid Nov when storm dumped heavy rain in Rio Grande do Sul and slows planting. Rio Grande do Sul accounts for around 17% of Brazil soybean acres.

Palm oil is entering low production season
Selling pressure from strong palm oil harvest will ease in the coming months as palm oil enters seasonally low production period. Production in fist half of the year could drop as much as 25% from the peak harvest season in Jul-Nov. Bullish tone also came out of Palm oil conference in Bali last week.

Still well below peak prices
We continue to Overweight plantation sector. Top picks Golden Agri, Lonsum, KL Kepong, and Sime Darby. The most leveraged play remains Bakrie Plantations. Despite the sharp recovery from the bottom, plantations stocks is still 42% below peak on the average, in line with CPO price.

 

[Sony_Boy]

Industry experts say palm oil could hit RM3,000-3,200 (but we think this is not sustainable)

Palm oil spot prices have risen from about RM2,200 to RM2,500 within three weeks, boosted by the relatively weak US dollar.

Positive news dominated this week: 1) James Fry of LMC and Dorab Mistry of Godrej predict that palm oil prices will hit RM3,200 and RM3,000 by mid-2010. 2) Malaysia’s replanting programme may reduce output by 0.7 mn t. 3) Malaysia’s November palm oil output could have fallen 10%MoM due to floods. 4) El Nino conditions persist.

Negative news: 1) Brazilian soybean planting is 76% complete, well ahead of the five-year average of 66%. (2) USDA maintains its 2009-10 Argentine soy output forecast at a record high of 52 mn.

We believe that firm palm oil prices into 1Q10 are unsustainable into 2Q, once the record high South American soy harvest starts. We have assumed a palm oil price average of RM2,500/t in 2010, up 11% YoY.

 

[butterland]

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paper trade dulu, sifu2 pun cakap kayuh pelan2 (aku bukan sifu tau, darah gemuruh tinggi punyer, kekeke).. kalau nampak trading sistem dah mantap, semangat naik, boleh jer masuk market..

pov aku, lembu jantan masih lagi kontrol market.. jumaat lepas, lembu naik angin, pecah resistance level 2521 sampai ke 2596, tutup kat 2562.. as expected, market buat correction awal minggu ni. ranging tuesday market, tadi buat low 2535 morning session.. lepas lunch, crude/soya oil naik tolak sampai 2590.. 15 minit market nak tutup, ppl take profit, market close 2561 buat doji..

bro ni pn dh sampai tahap sifu ni..
aku dok usha live akaun member kepada member je..
member kpd member aku ckp senang je trade..
ntah la..belum sampai tahap hati kering lg aku ni..
nak trade gak..tgh isi form kenanga ni..hehehe..bukak akaun dlu..

 

[Sony_Boy]

Asian Crude Palm Oil Ends Down On Selling Pressure, Soyoil (09 Dec 2009)

Crude palm oil futures on Malaysia's derivatives exchange ended mostly lower in rangebound trade Wednesday, with investors taking cues from other commodities and weaker equity markets in the region, liquidating positions to take profit.

The benchmark February contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives ended MYR35 lower at MYR2,526 a metric ton after moving between MYR2,502 and MYR2,542/ton.

"The market will remain in consolidation mode as it is likely Dec. 1-10 exports are only up marginally, while the market is also concerned about a build-up in palm inventories," said a senior trading executive from Kuala Lumpur. Traders said long positions were liquidated and fresh short positions were set up as there aren't going to be any major positive leads in the next trading session.

Prices will likely move in a narrow band in Thursday's morning session, and could stay rangebound in the afternoon unless bearish cues emerge in production data due from the state-linked Malaysian Palm Oil Board, most traders said. Surprises in Dec. 1-10 export data from cargo surveyors could also move prices.

Lower soyoil prices added to the downward pressure on palm oil. January soyoil at the Chicago Board of Trade was trading 39 cents lower at 40.10 cents a pound in electronic trading toward the end of trade on the BMD.

"December export figures as a whole aren't going to be exciting, as major palm oil buyers such as China have already replenished their stocks. The sharp rise in palm oil prices will also deter major purchases by overseas buyers," said a Malaysia-based exporter. Nevertheless, tightness in global soyoil supply will help underpin soyoil and palm oil prices, analysts said. "Fears of a strengthening El Nino and logistical limitations in restocking (vegetable oils) will buoy prices," said an analyst from Singapore-based DBS Vickers.

In the cash market, palm olein for December traded at $767.50/ton, January/February/March was at $780/ton, with April/May/June at $785/ton and $787.50/ton, FOB Malaysian ports, a Singapore-based trading executive said. Cash CPO for prompt delivery was offered MYR30 lower at MYR2,470/ton. A total of 20,978 lots of CPO were traded on the BMD versus 13,138 lots Tuesday. Open interest was 87,866 lots Wednesday, up from 87,061 lots. One lot is equivalent to 25 tons.

 

[Sony_Boy]

BMD CPO Futures Below MYR2,500/Ton On Selling Pressure

[Dow Jones] BMD CPO futures lower, with prices trading below MYR2,500 on technical selling pressure, traders say. Marginal rise in Dec. 1-10 palm oil exports neutral to market, says analyst in Kuala Lumpur. Prices likely to move in MYR2,485-MYR2,515/ton range through morning session, trading executive in Kuala Lumpur says, as market awaits MPOB production, stock data likely out around 0430 GMT Thursday. Benchmark BMD February CPO futures trading MYR31 lower at MYR2,495/ton.

BMD CPO Down; Market May Recover On MPOB Data
[Dow Jones] BMD CPO futures down on overnight crude oil, soyoil futures; market may move higher in afternoon on MPOB data, say traders. Benchmark February CPO contract down MYR34 at MYR2,492/ton. MPOB data show end-November stocks down 2% at 1.93 million tons. Traders say CPO prices may find support from draw-down in stocks. If stocks had been estimated above 2 million tons, market would move down further, but at 1.93 million tons, CPO prices may see recovery in afternoon trade, says Kuala Lumpur-based trader.

 

[Sony_Boy]

Crude Palm Oil Ends Down; Off Lows As Malaysia Output Falls (10 Dec 2009)

Crude palm oil futures on Malaysia’s derivatives exchange ended lower, but prices were off intraday lows as Malaysia's palm oil output was sharply lower, leading to a better-than-expected inventory data, trade participants said.

The benchmark February contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives ended MYR5 lower at MYR2,521 a metric ton after moving between MYR2,489 and MYR2,535/ton.

Malaysia's palm oil inventories declined from a ten-month high of 1.97 million tons in October to 1.93 million tons at end-November. The decline in inventories was in tandem with a 20% decline in November's output, an indication that production may be at the tail-end of a high cycle. The Malaysian Palm Oil Board estimated November output at 1.60 million tons, down 20% or 388,444 tons from a record high of 1.98 million tons in October.

Ongoing rains and flooding slowed oil palm harvesting in Malaysia, an executive from Malaysia-based plantation firm said. Output in peninsular Malaysia fell the most, declining 23.6% to 851,410 tons in November as seasonal monsoon rains hit the oil-palm states of Perak, Johor and Pahang, disrupting transportation of oil palms to refineries and ports. The lower production may limit any further decline in prices. Traders said technical charts suggest further consolidation is likely in the CPO futures market before prices are ready to scale higher.

In the cash market, palm olein for April/May/June was traded several times in a range of $775-$780/ton, FOB Malaysian ports, a Singapore-based trading executive said. Cash CPO for prompt delivery was offered MYR30 lower at MYR2,440/ton. A total of 20,308 lots of CPO were traded on the BMD versus 20,978 lots Wednesday. Open interest was 86,950 lots Thursday, down from 87,866 lots. One lot is equivalent to 25 tons.

 

[Sony_Boy]

Asian crude palm oil ends up in rangebound trade (11 Dec 2009)

Crude palm oil futures on Malaysia's derivatives exchange ended higher Friday in cautious, rangebound trade, said trade participants.

The benchmark February contract on Bursa Malaysia Derivatives ended MYR9 higher at MYR2,530 a metric ton after moving between MYR2,505 and MYR2,535/ton.

The February contract didn't move above MYR2,550 due to a lack of buying in the cash market and unwinding of positions at short intervals in the run up to the year-end. "Many investors are liquidating positions at short intervals before the fiscal year ends," said a Kuala Lumpur-based executive from a foreign trading firm.

Trade participants said prices are likely to move mostly between MYR2,450-MYR2,550 in the next few trading sessions due to the year-end closing accounts by investors. "Unless there're significant leads on export demand or a sharp drawdown in palm reserves, prices will face strong resistance at the MYR2,600 level in the next week," said a senior executive from a Kuala Lumpur-based commodities brokerage.

Shipping executives and cargo officers said Malaysia palm oil export momentum for the first 15 days in December is likely to grow marginally. "The pickup (in export demand) is likely to be 5%. Based on preliminary data, it seems exports for the whole of December will be marginally up by 6%-7% from November," said a Penang-based shipping executive. Cargo surveyors Intertek Agri Services and SGS (Malaysia) Bhd. put November exports at 1.42 million-1.46 million tons. Export estimates for the Dec. 1-15 period will be issued on Tuesday.

Open interest on BMD CPO futures have dropped 6.4% since last Friday, as investors unwound positions towards the end of the year. In the cash market, palm olein for April/May/June was traded at $787.50/ton, FOB Malaysian ports, a Singapore-based trading executive said. He said buyers were at least $10.00/ton away from sellers. Cash CPO for prompt delivery was offered MYR30 higher at MYR2,470/ton. A total of 13,327 lots of CPO were traded on the BMD versus 20,308 lots Thursday. Open interest was 85,822 lots Friday, down from 86,950 lots. One lot is equivalent to 25 tons.

 

[wanpip]

salam,
newbies tumpang tanya..
tuan2 kalau saya nak buka akaun dengan amfutures berapa duit modal permulaan kena ada?




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Ya Allah, tunjukkanlah jalan yang lurus pada kami semua.

 

[Sony_Boy]

salam,
newbies tumpang tanya..
tuan2 kalau saya nak buka akaun dengan amfutures berapa duit modal permulaan kena ada?

1 lot sekarang RM5500.. letak RM10,000 ok, biar margin besar sikit. kebanyakan newbies tak letak stop loss dan FCPO market boleh menjunam deras mcm air terjun dlm 10 minit, dan sebaliknya..

 

[wanpip]

sony_boy,
boleh ke newbies trade intraday?
kalau trade intraday berapa pula modalnya?
atau sama je...rm10k