FCPO : Info & Analysis

[Sony_Boy]

Asian CPO Ends Up On Bullish Price Forecast; Rise in Exports

(Dow Jones)--Crude palm oil futures on Malaysia's derivatives exchange ended higher Monday as a rise in crude oil in late trade and a likely increase in exports lifted market sentiment, trade participants said.

The benchmark January contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives ended MYR20 higher at MYR2,266 a metric ton after trading in a MYR2,215-MYR2,270/ton range.

"Crude's rise by more than $1 gave support to (CPO) prices. CPO's rise toward the end of trade was also helped by a fairly bullish price forecast by James Fry," said a senior executive from a Kuala Lumpur-based commodities brokerage. "Over the past two days, most analysts are turning bullish again and this will give some support for prices for the time being."

Industry analyst James Fry said CPO prices may rise to MYR2,625/ton by April next year if Brent crude oil prices hold steady at $75 a barrel. "If Brent crude drops (to $65), CPO prices may ease to MYR2,350/ton," he said at an industry conference on vegetable oils.

As China and India, both major buyers of vegetable oils, return to the market to restock supplies, CPO prices may rise to MYR2,400 in the first quarter next year, Dorab Mistry, director of Godrej International Ltd said at an industry conference on Sunday. Price gains will also hinge on the development of the El-Nino weather phenomenon, he said.

Meanwhile, palm oil exports during the Nov. 1-10 period are likely to have risen 14%-16% on month to around 394,000 tons, trade participants said. Cargo surveyors Intertek Agri Services and SGS (Malaysia) Bhd likely to issue estimates of Nov. 1-10 exports on Tuesday. At 1055 GMT, New York Mercantile Exchange light, sweet crude for December delivery was trading $1.22 higher at $78.65 a barrel.

Cash palm olein for January/February/March was offered at $695/ton. Cash CPO for prompt shipment was offered unchanged at MYR2,180/ton. A total of 9,955 lots of CPO were traded on the BMD, versus 9,871 lots Friday. Open interest stood at 94,014 lots Monday, up from 93,667 lots. One lot is equivalent to 25 tons.

 

[Sony_Boy]

Crude Palm Oil (CPO) Prices May Rise To MYR2,625 By April – Analyst Fry

Crude palm oil prices may rise to MYR2,625 a metric ton by April if Brent crude oil prices hold steady at $75 a barrel as more vegetable oils are used for biodiesel amid a rise in demand for the clean fuel, industry analyst James Fry said Monday.

The growth in biofuel production, mainly driven by mandates in many countries, amplifies crude oil's rising influence on vegetable oil prices, including palm oil. Fry also said if Brent crude fell $10 to $65/bbl, palm oil prices would then ease to MYR2,350/ton.

"Instead of stocks as a main price driver, crude oil is now a major influence for (vegetable oil) via the link to biodiesel demand," said Fry, chairman of UK-based LMC International Ltd., at a regional palm oil conference. "Since January 2007, crude oil has become the strongest determinant of vegetable oil prices. Stocks, which used to play a strong influence on palm oil prices, have declined (in importance)."

CPO prices were under pressure the past few weeks on fears domestic palm reserves have reached 1.75 million-1.80 million tons as output continued to outpace demand. Trade participants fear palm oil stocks may rise further in November, but a stronger crude prevented a slide in prices.

Fry said Malaysian palm oil stocks may rise in November and December as palm oil production gathers pace, but added stocks aren't likely to rise above 1.9 million tons. Fry also said Malaysia's palm oil production in 2010 may rise above 2008's production of 17.7 million tons as palm trees recover from biological tree stress.

Biofuel mandates in Germany and the U.S., both major biodiesel consumers, have made soy prices more sensitive to non-food demand. "The swings in monthly (biofuel) demand in the US and Germany have reached over 250,000-300,000 tons (a year), which are large in relation to the much more stable growth in world food demand," Fry said.

Even though palm oil isn't widely used in the European biofuel sector due to environmental concerns, palm is increasingly used as a substitute for soyoil and rapeseed in food. "For this reason, non-tariff barriers, like those proposed against palm oil in biodiesel use in the EU, act mainly as an irritant," he said.

 

[Sony_Boy]

Nov. 10 (Bloomberg) -- Palm oil stockpiles in Malaysia, the world’s second-largest producer, climbed to a 10-month high in October as production reached a record. Stockpiles of the world’s cheapest edible oil surged 25 percent in October from the previous month to 1,974,462 metric tons, the highest level since December 2008, the Malaysian Palm Oil Board said in a statement today. Output jumped 27 percent to a record 1,985,055 tons, and exports gained 12 percent to 1,478,317 tons, the board said. Palm oil futures for January delivery traded in Malaysia, the global benchmark, was little changed at 2,270 ringgit ($672) at the 12:30 p.m. local time. The data came after the market paused for the midday break.

BMD CPO Futures Gains May Be Erased On MPOB Data

[Dow Jones] BMD CPO futures continue morning gains into midday, but likely to move into negative territory in afternoon session on bearish MPOB report, traders say. "Prices may ease on selling pressure ... MPOB data is bearish," says trading executive in Kuala Lumpur. MPOB put end-October stocks at 10-month high of 1.98 million tons, up 25% on month. Palm oil output up 27% at record 1.99 million tons while exports up less sharply,12%, at 1.48 million tons. Benchmark BMD January CPO futures up MYR4 midday at MYR2,270/ton.

BMD CPO Down 1.4% On Record High Output, Rise In Stocks

Crude palm oil futures on Malaysia's derivatives exchange fell as much as 1.4% Tuesday following selling pressure as investors took cues from a sharp spike in production and inventories, said trade participants. The benchmark January contract on Bursa Malaysia Derivatives opened MYR4 higher and rose to an intraday high of MYR2,285 a metric ton after cargo surveyor Intertek Agri Services reported exports during the Nov. 1-10 period jumped 19% to 403,302 tons, well above market expectations of 394,000 tons.But CPO contracts eased into negative territory during the afternoon session as record production and stocks weighed.

The benchmark January contract was trading MYR17 lower at MYR2,249, off an intraday low of MYR2,235/ton. The Malaysian Palm Oil Board said Tuesday end-October palm oil stocks had risen to a 10-month high of 1.98 million tons, as a seasonal rise in production surpassed palm oil sales in October. Much of the rise in October's production was driven by improved yields in Sabah, which accounted for over 31% of the total output.

"Yields at the Sabah estates had improved tremendously and production is definitely showing a double-digit increase," a plantation company executive with oil palm areas in Sabah said. "Stocks are close to the psychological level of 2 million tons. This may weigh on prices towards the end of the year," said a senior executive from a Kuala Lumpur-based trading firm. He added prices may decline to MYR2,170-MYR2,200 levels today.

During a regional conference in China over the weekend, London-based vegetable oils analyst Dorab Mistry forecast CPO production in October may rise to an all-time high, leading to a big increase in stocks. Stocks may peak at the end of December at 2.1 million tons, Mistry said. "While this figure may seem daunting, it will represent less than 6 weeks' consumption. It is likely that stocks will decline from January or latest from February onwards," he added

 

[Sony_Boy]

Asian Crude Palm Oil Ends Down; Record High Output,Stocks Up

[Dow Jones])--Crude palm oil futures on Malaysia's derivativesbexchange ended lower Tuesday as higher stocks and rising production weighed on prices, even as exports performed above expectations.

The benchmark January contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives ended MYR24 lower at MYR2,242 a metric ton after trading in a range of MYR2,235-MYR2,285/ton. Prices traded higher in the morning session as palm oil exports during the Nov. 1-10 period performed better than expected.

Malaysia's palm oil exports during the period were up 19%-22% on month due to higher volumes being shipped to the E.U., Pakistan and India, according to data from two cargo surveyors. Cargo surveyor Intertek estimated Malaysia's palm oil exports at 403,302 tons, up 19% on month. Another cargo surveyor, SGS (Malaysia) Bhd., estimated exports at 421,311 tons, up 22% on month.

The export estimates came in above market expectations of a 14%-16% rise in shipments to 394,000 tons. But the increase in export volume failed to prevent CPO prices from falling into negative territory as record high production pushed stock levels to a new high.

Malaysia's October palm oil output rose 27% compared with September, to 1.99 million tons, the highest monthly output on record, said the Malaysian Palm Oil Board. Palm oil stocks rose 25% on month to a 10-month high of 1.98 million tons at the end of October. The October stock level was well above market expectations of being in a range of 1.75 million to 1.80 million tons.

However, prices didn't fall too much despite the bearish news. "Prices seem well supported at the MYR2,230 level. In fact, the selling pressure during afternoon trade was a fairly muted reaction, as there was no panic selling," said a Kuala Lumpur-based trader.

Cash palm olein for January/February/March was offered at $702.50/ton. Cash CPO for prompt shipment was offered unchanged at MYR2,180/ton. A total of 11,963 lots of CPO were traded on the BMD, versus 9,955 lots Monday. Open interest stood at 94,207 lots Tuesday, up from 94,014 lots. One lot is equivalent to 25 tons.

Analyst Fry Revises CPO Price Forecast On Record High Output

(Dow Jones)--Top industry analyst James Fry Tuesday revised the crude palm oil price outlook after Malaysia posted a jump in palm oil output to a record high 1.99 million metric tons in October. CPO prices may rise to MYR2,375/ton by April if Brent crude holds steady at $75 a barrel, said Fry, chairman of UK-based LMC International Ltd., at an industry conference on palm oil.

 

[Sony_Boy]

Crude Palm Oil Futures End Down In Thin Trade; Output, Stocks Weigh

[Dow Jones]--Crude palm oil futures on Malaysia's derivatives exchange ended lower Wednesday in thin trade as news of bearish output and stock levels continued to weigh on prices, said trade participants. However, CPO prices performed better than expected amid the slew of bearish cues, leaving some participants wondering if a bigger downward price correction lies ahead.

The benchmark January contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives ended MYR7 lower at MYR2,235 a metric ton after trading in a range of MYR2,225-MYR2,260. Traders said the market should be trading lower on bearish production and stocks data released yesterday, but losses have so far been minimal. "It could be that the market is well-balanced with buyers and sellers not too long or short on their positions and don't need to hedge their positions much," said a Singapore-based trader.

Others said the thin volume of trade and a lack of buyers in the market could indicate participants are uncertain of the direction that prices should take. "Participants just weren't making significant moves either way, so prices just inched along sluggishly," said a Kuala Lumpur-based trader.

Malaysia's October palm oil output rose 27% compared with September to 1.99 million tons, the highest monthly output on record, said the Malaysian Palm Oil Board yesterday. Palm oil stocks rose 25% on month to a 10-month high of 1.98 million tons at the end of October. The October stock level was well above market expectations of being in a range of 1.75 million to 1.80 million tons.

Although the news was bearish, prices fell by only MYR24 yesterday. "Prices didn't fall by that much today either, and trade was very thin, so many are wondering if a (downward) price correction lies ahead," said another Kuala Lumpur-based trader.

Cash palm olein for January/February/March was offered at $700/ton. Cash CPO for prompt shipment was offered MYR10 lower at MYR2,170/ton. A total of 5,092 lots of CPO were traded on the BMD, versus 11,963 lots Tuesday. Open interest stood at 95,142 lots Wednesday, up from 94,207 lots. One lot is equivalent to 25 tons.

 

[Sony_Boy]

Asian Crude Palm Oil Ends Up On Short Covering, Flood Concerns

(Dow Jones)--Crude palm oil futures on Malaysia's derivatives exchange ended higher on short covering as heavy rains in oil palm growing states may disrupt harvesting activities, trade participants said.

The benchmark January contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives ended MYR10 higher at MYR2,245 a metric ton after trading in a range of MYR2,240-MYR2,277/ton.

"The weather hasn't been good. With production likely lower in November and strong export figures so far, this will give good support to prices," a senior executive from Kuala Lumpur-based trading company said. While heavy rains in key oil palm growing areas may disrupt harvesting activities, it isn't likely that production figures will drop drastically this month, as the high output cycle isn't over.

Most mature palm trees are able to survive flood conditions for up to two weeks, but prolonged flooding can have adverse effects on oil palm yields. Overall palm oil output in November likely to fall 5% to 1.90 million tons, a Kuala Lumpur-based senior trading executive said. "Preliminary data from an industry association showed that production in the first 10 days posted a double-digit slowdown. But the data doesn't reflect performance for the whole month and it is too early to tell," he said.

Heavy rains have been falling regularly over the states of Kelantan, Terengganu and Pahang, and the Malaysian Meteorological Department has issued an alert saying that rains are likely to continue until next week. The weather bureau also said heavy rains in several states in peninsular Malaysia may cause floods along rivers and low lying areas. An official at the MMD said other provinces such as Johor were also experiencing heavy rains. Johor and Pahang are major oil palm growing states in peninsular Malaysia.

Malaysia's palm oil output in October rose 27% from the previous month to 1.99 million tons, the highest monthly output on record, data from the Malaysian Palm Oil Board showed Tuesday.

In the cash market, cash palm olein for January/February/March was traded at $710/ton, while April/May/June traded at $715/ton, $717.50/ton and $720/ton, free on board Malaysian ports, said a Singapore-based trader. Cash CPO for prompt shipment was offered MYR40 higher at MYR2,220/ton. A total of 15,456 lots of CPO were traded on the BMD, versus 5,092 lots Wednesday. Open interest stood at 94,523 lots Thursday, down from 95,142 lots. One lot is equivalent to 25 tons.

 

[thetu5]

Change of margin

12/11/09..


FCPO & FPKO:-

SPOT MONTH GROSS MARGIN - RM 6,000

NON SPOT MONTH MARGIN - RM5,500

good news for overnite traders.. paidpaid

 

[Sony_Boy]

BMD CPO Futures Unchanged; To Stay Rangebound

[Dow Jones] BMD CPO futures unchanged midday after moving in both positive, negative territory. "Prices are finding some support on likely floods in Pahang, Johor as harvesting may be disrupted. But overall weakness in soyoil, crude markets preventing a rally in palm oil prices," says executive at global trading company. Prices likely to remain rangebound and may test support at MYR2,220. "If prices break the MYR2,220 level, the next support would be at the MYR2,150-MYR2,166 levels," says Malaysia-based exporter. Benchmark BMD January CPO futures unchanged midday at MYR2,245 after moving in MYR2,237-MYR2,255/ton range.

BMD CPO Futures Rebound On Likely Higher Exports

BMD CPO futures rebounds, trading in positive territory on short covering, speculative buying interest as Malaysia's palm oil exports Nov. 1-15 likely around 650,000 tons, traders say. Cargo surveyors likely to issue Malaysia Nov. 1-15 palm oil exports Monday. "The rebound in crude prices is sustaining prices as well," says Malaysia-based exporter. Nymex crude for December trading 40 cents higher at $77.34/bbl. Benchmark BMD January CPO futures trading MYR18 higher at MYR2,263/ton.

 

[Sony_Boy]

Asian Crude Palm Oil Ends Up On Demand Outlook, Higher Crude

(Dow Jones)--Crude palm oil futures on Malaysia's derivatives exchange rose for a second consecutive day Friday as an improved demand outlook and higher crude oil prompted speculative buying interest, said trade participants. An active cash market in the afternoon session boosted prices as a large trading company "was actively buying palm products," said a Singapore-based trader.

The benchmark January contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives ended MYR23 higher at MYR2,268 a metric ton after trading in a narrow range.

Prices were slightly choppy, moving in both positive and negative territory in the early session. But they moved convincingly higher in the afternoon session on talk of a likely rise in exports, trade participants said.

"Exports may have risen 9%-10% to 650,000 tons" in the first 15 days of November, said a senior trading executive from Kuala Lumpur. Cargo surveyor Intertek Agri Services put Oct. 1-15 palm shipments at 596,515 tons. Another surveyor, SGS (Malaysia) Bhd., put the figure at 591,791 tons. Both surveyors are expected to issue estimates Monday.

A rebound in crude oil prices during Asian trading hours due to a weaker dollar was the catalyst for CPO's price gain. At 1000 GMT, Nymex light, sweet crude for December delivery was trading 54 cents higher at $77.48 a barrel on Globex. "The weakness in the dollar is likely to continue in the next few trading sessions, so commodity prices may be poised for some gains next week," said a Malaysia-based exporter.

Meanwhile, Indonesia's PT Perkebunan Nusantara said it sold 4,500 tons of crude palm oil offered in a government auction Friday. Another 5,000 tons of CPO that was offered at the auction remained unsold, as bids were below PTPN's offer prices of IDR6,388-IDR6,551/kg.

In the cash market, cash palm olein for April/May/June was traded several times at $715/ton, free on board Malaysian ports, said a Singapore-based trader. Cash CPO for prompt shipment was offered MYR20 lower at MYR2,200/ton. A total of 12,876 lots of CPO were traded on the BMD versus 15,456 lots Thursday. Open interest stood at 96,400 lots Friday, up from 94,523 lots. One lot is equivalent to 25 tons.

 

[Sony_Boy]

CPO futures -- Weakness of US dollar a telling factor

BTIMES-November 16, 2009

Saved by the dollar. Or rather the weakness of the US currency, which lifted world commodity markets overall, even the fundamentally weak ones like the local palm oil futures market. The Kuala Lumpur CPO futures market tumbled in early trade in the wake of the Malaysian Palm Oil Board's (MPOB) report that, as a result of a record high production in October of 1,985,855 tonnes of palm oil, end-October 2009 stocks burgeoned to a 10-month high of 1,974,462 tonnes, way above market expectations of between 1.75 million to 1.80 million tonnes.

The actively-traded January 2010 contract slid at first to a low of RM2,215 a tonne. But that was before the weak dollar came to the rescue, lifting it to a high of RM2,285. The contract settled last Friday of RM2268, eking out a RM22 or 0.98 per cent gain over the week.

The actively-traded US soyabean oil futures December 2009 contract, by contrast, surged 184 points or 5.0 per cent to close at 38.61 US cents a pound. But it had a positive knock-on effect on the local market, saving the latter from falling into negative price territory. What the weakness of the US dollar did was give a boost to world asset price inflation. Gold surged to unprecedented highs above US$1,100 an ounce. World currencies, most notably the euro and the yen, surged against the dollar; and world equity markets also benefited. Crude oil was the notable loser; the Chicago Mercantile Exchange December 2009 oil futures fell US$1.08 to US$76.35 a barrel over the week, but that's because there's no shortage in supply of the black goo to meet world demand.

Conclusion: This market now is held hostage by external factors, in particular the fate of the US dollar.

The technicals - particularly the volume indicators - are still indicating that, if not for weakness in the US dollar and consequent bullishness in the bellwether US soyabean oil futures market, this market would not be near where it is now.

The subject expressed above is based purely on technical analysis and opinions of the writer. It is not a solicitation to buy or sell.