Exness Technical Daily

[meeru]

AUDNZD bullish above strong support

AUDNZD
Jan. 26, 2017, 02:42
Buy above 1.0356. Stop loss at 1.0337. Take profit at 1.0426.
Reason for the trading strategy (technically):
We turn bullish one last time above 1.0356 support (Fibonacci projection, major swing low support, bullish candlestick reversal) for a push up to 1.0426 (Fibonacci retracement, recent swing high resistance).
RSI (34) is seeing strong support above 31%.
Stochastic (21,5,3,) is bouncing above support at 6%.

 

[meeru]

EURJPY remain bearish

EURJPY
Jan. 26, 2017, 02:41
Sell below 1.0773. Stop loss at 1.0803. Take profit at 1.0682.
Reason for the trading strategy (technically):
We remain bearish below strong resistance at 1.0773 (Fibonacci projection, Fibonacci retracement) for a push down to 1.0682 (Fibonacci retracement, Fibonacci projection, horizontal pullback support).
Stochastic (55,5,3) still has god downside potential for its drop.
Reason for the trading strategy (fundamentally):
The major news item affecting USD today is the U.S. Advance Goods Trade Balance. A trade deficit is bad news for the dollar, as it means foreign goods are in demand. Those goods are ultimately purchased with foreign currency which creates a higher demand for foreign currency. A trade surplus, on the other hand, means that foreign consumers are buying more American goods. This results in demand for the dollar. We are expecting a smaller deficit from -$65.30b to -$64.50b which means a stronger USD. This goes in line with our bearish EURUSD trade.

 

[meeru]

USDJPY right at major resistance, remain bearish

USDJPY
Jan. 27, 2017, 05:16
Sell below 114.55. Stop loss at 115.36. Take profit at 112.54.
Reason for the trading strategy (technically):
We remain bearish below 114.55 resistance (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap resistance, descending resistance) for a drop to at least 112.54 support (Fibonacci projection, horizontal support).
Stochastic (55,5,3) is seeing strong resistance below the 96% level which it is approaching.
Reason for the trading strategy (fundamentally):
The main news event today is the U.S. Durable Goods Orders. Durable goods are typically sensitive to economic changes. When consumers become sceptical about economic conditions, sales of durable goods are one of the first to be impacted since consumers can delay purchases of durable items, like cars and televisions, only spending money on necessities in times of economic hardship. Conversely, when consumer confidence is restored, orders for durable goods rebound quickly. The headline figure is expressed as a percentage change from previous months. A decrease in this value would mean a weaker USD. Forecasts for this month is expecting a significant rise from last month which means a stronger USD. This goes against our bearish USDJPY view, hence it is important to exercise caution on this trade.
The other major news item today affecting USD is the Gross Domestic Product (GBP) which measures the annualized change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy. It is the broadest measure of economic activity and the primary indicator of the economy's health. If the actual release is better than the forecast, that means it is good for the currency and we can expect USD to strengthen. However, if the actual release is less than the forecast, that means it is bad for USD and we can expect USD to weaken. Our current forecast is for a strong drop from 3.5% to 2.2% which means we could expect a weaker USD, this goes in line with our bearish USDJPY view today.

 

[meeru]

AUDUSD starting to drop nicely, remain bearish

AUDUSD
Jan. 27, 2017, 05:14
Sell below 0.7580. Stop loss at 0.7644. Take profit at 0.7447.
Reason for the trading strategy (technically):
We remain bearish below major resistance at 0.7580 (Fibonacci retracement, Fibonacci projection, horizontal overlap resistance) with price recently breaking a long term support-turned-resistance line leading us to expect a strong continued drop from this level to at least 0.7447 support (Fibonacci retracement, swing low support).
Stochastic (21,5,3) remain at 92% resistance and sees bearish divergence vs price signalling a reversal is fast approaching.
Reason for the trading strategy (fundamentally):
The main news event today is the U.S. Durable Goods Orders. Durable goods are typically sensitive to economic changes. When consumers become sceptical about economic conditions, sales of durable goods are one of the first to be impacted since consumers can delay purchases of durable items, like cars and televisions, only spending money on necessities in times of economic hardship. Conversely, when consumer confidence is restored, orders for durable goods rebound quickly. The headline figure is expressed as a percentage change from previous months. A decrease in this value would mean a weaker USD. Forecasts for this month is expecting a significant rise from last month which means a stronger USD. This goes in line with our bearish AUDUSD view.
The other major news item today affecting USD is the Gross Domestic Product (GBP) which measures the annualized change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy. It is the broadest measure of economic activity and the primary indicator of the economy's health. If the actual release is better than the forecast, that means it is good for the currency and we can expect USD to strengthen. However, if the actual release is less than the forecast, that means it is bad for USD and we can expect USD to weaken. Our current forecast is for a strong drop from 3.5% to 2.2% which means we could expect a weaker USD, this goes against our bearish AUDUSD view today.

 

[meeru]

USDCHF remain bearish for a further drop

USDCHF
Jan. 27, 2017, 05:09
Sell below 1.0026. Stop loss at 1.0096. Take profit at 0.9926.
Reason for the trading strategy (technically):
We remain bearish below 1.0026 resistance (swing high resistance, descending resistance, Fibonacci projection, Fibonacci retracement) for a further push down to 0.9926 support (Fibonacci projection).
Stochastic (21,5,3) is seeing strong resistance below the 91% level and still has good downside potential.
Reason for the trading strategy (fundamentally):
The main news event today is the U.S. Durable Goods Orders. Durable goods are typically sensitive to economic changes. When consumers become sceptical about economic conditions, sales of durable goods are one of the first to be impacted since consumers can delay purchases of durable items, like cars and televisions, only spending money on necessities in times of economic hardship. Conversely, when consumer confidence is restored, orders for durable goods rebound quickly. The headline figure is expressed as a percentage change from previous months. A decrease in this value would mean a weaker USD. Forecasts for this month is expecting a significant rise from last month which means a stronger USD. This goes against our bearish USDCHF view, hence it is important to exercise caution on this trade.
The other major news item today affecting USD is the Gross Domestic Product (GBP) which measures the annualized change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy. It is the broadest measure of economic activity and the primary indicator of the economy's health. If the actual release is better than the forecast, that means it is good for the currency and we can expect USD to strengthen. However, if the actual release is less than the forecast, that means it is bad for USD and we can expect USD to weaken. Our current forecast is for a strong drop from 3.5% to 2.2% which means we could expect a weaker USD, this goes in line with our bearish USDCHF view today.


USDCHF remain bearish for a further drop

USDCHF
Jan. 27, 2017, 05:09
Sell below 1.0026. Stop loss at 1.0096. Take profit at 0.9926.
Reason for the trading strategy (technically):
We remain bearish below 1.0026 resistance (swing high resistance, descending resistance, Fibonacci projection, Fibonacci retracement) for a further push down to 0.9926 support (Fibonacci projection).
Stochastic (21,5,3) is seeing strong resistance below the 91% level and still has good downside potential.
Reason for the trading strategy (fundamentally):
The main news event today is the U.S. Durable Goods Orders. Durable goods are typically sensitive to economic changes. When consumers become sceptical about economic conditions, sales of durable goods are one of the first to be impacted since consumers can delay purchases of durable items, like cars and televisions, only spending money on necessities in times of economic hardship. Conversely, when consumer confidence is restored, orders for durable goods rebound quickly. The headline figure is expressed as a percentage change from previous months. A decrease in this value would mean a weaker USD. Forecasts for this month is expecting a significant rise from last month which means a stronger USD. This goes against our bearish USDCHF view, hence it is important to exercise caution on this trade.
The other major news item today affecting USD is the Gross Domestic Product (GBP) which measures the annualized change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy. It is the broadest measure of economic activity and the primary indicator of the economy's health. If the actual release is better than the forecast, that means it is good for the currency and we can expect USD to strengthen. However, if the actual release is less than the forecast, that means it is bad for USD and we can expect USD to weaken. Our current forecast is for a strong drop from 3.5% to 2.2% which means we could expect a weaker USD, this goes in line with our bearish USDCHF view today.

 

[meeru]

EURJPY remain bearish

EURJPY
Jan. 27, 2017, 05:04
Sell below 122.26. Stop loss at 122.99. Take profit at 121.15.
Reason for the trading strategy (technically):
We remain bearish below 122.26 resistance (Fibonacci retracement, Fibonacci projection, swing high resistance) with price recently forming a nice ABCD formation for a push down to 121.15 (Fibonacci projection, Fibonacci retracement, recent swing low support).
Stochastic (34,5,3) is seeing major resistance at the 90% level.

 

[meeru]

AUDJPY above strong support, time to buy

AUDJPY
Feb. 1, 2017, 03:11
Buy above 85.32. Stop loss at 84.95. Take profit at 86.05.

Reason for the trading strategy (technically):

Price is right above major support at 85.32 (horizontal support, Fibonacci projection) and we expect to see a bounce above this level to 86.05 resistance (recent swing high resistance, Fibonacci retracement).

Stochastic (21,5,3) is seeing strong support above the 9.5% level.

 

[meeru]

AUDUSD remain bearish

AUDUSD
Feb. 1, 2017, 03:06
Sell below 0.7580. Stop loss at 0.7644. Take profit at 0.7447.

Reason for the trading strategy (technically):

We remain bearish below major resistance at 0.7580 (Fibonacci retracement, Fibonacci projection, horizontal overlap resistance) with price recently breaking a long term support-turned-resistance line leading us to expect a strong continued drop from this level to at least 0.7447 support (Fibonacci retracement, swing low support).

Stochastic (21,5,3) is seeing strong resistance below the 93% level.

Reason for the trading strategy (fundamentally):

The main news event driving USD today is the U.S. ISM Manufacturing survey. It is one of the biggest market moving economic releases because of its Prices Paid and Employment subcomponents which reflect sentiment towards inflation and labor conditions - two of the market's most significant health indicators. A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD. We’re expecting forecasts of an increase which means a bullish USD is expected, this goes in line with our bearish AUDUSD strategy view.

 

[meeru]

USDCHF remain bullish above major support

USDCHF
Feb. 1, 2017, 03:04
Buy above 0.9850. Stop loss at 0.9825. Take profit at 0.9958.

Reason for the trading strategy (technically):

We are bullish above 0.9850 support (long term gold ratio retracement, price action) for a bounce to at least 0.9958 resistance (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap resistance).

Stochastic (21,5,3) is seeing strong support above the 6% level.

Reason for the trading strategy (fundamentally):

The main news event driving USD today is the U.S. ISM Manufacturing survey. It is one of the biggest market moving economic releases because of its Prices Paid and Employment subcomponents which reflect sentiment towards inflation and labor conditions - two of the market's most significant health indicators. A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD. We’re expecting forecasts of an increase which means a bullish USD is expected, this goes in line with our bullish USDCHF strategy view.

 

[meeru]

USDJPY on major support, time to buy

USDJPY
Feb. 1, 2017, 03:02
Buy above 112.55. Stop loss at 112.00. Take profit at 114.00.

Reason for the trading strategy (technically):

Price is now above major support at 112.55 (Fibonacci projection, multiple horizontal swing low supports) and we expect to see price make a bounce above this level towards 114.00 resistance (Fibonacci retracement, recent swing high resistance, horizontal overlap resistance).

Stochastic (21,5,3) is seeing strong support above our 8% level.

Reason for the trading strategy (fundamentally):

The main news event driving USD today is the U.S. ISM Manufacturing survey. It is one of the biggest market moving economic releases because of its Prices Paid and Employment subcomponents which reflect sentiment towards inflation and labor conditions - two of the market's most significant health indicators. A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD. We’re expecting forecasts of an increase which means a bullish USD is expected, this goes in line with our bullish USDJPY strategy view.