Exness Technical Daily

[meeru]

EURAUD dropped perfectly. Tighten stop loss to play a further drop

Cross rate
Aug. 25, 2016, 04:45
Sell below 1.4835. Stop loss at 1.4890. Take profit at 1.4715.

Reason for the trading strategy (technically):

Price dropped perfectly as expected from our major resistance of 1.4885 (horizontal resistance, Fibonacci projection) yesterday. Today we tighten our stop loss to breakeven at 1.4890 and look to add more short positions at 1.4835 for another drop to 1.4715 support.

RSI (34) has made a bearish exit of its long term ascending support-turned-resistance line yesterday and still has good downside potential.

 

[meeru]

NZDUSD rose to our selling level perfectly as expected, wait for further rise before a drop

NZDUSD
Aug. 25, 2016, 04:33
Sell below 0.7355. Stop loss at 0.7370. Take profit at 0.7300.

Reason for the trading strategy (technically):

NZDUSD rose perfectly to our resistance of 0.7320 as expected yesterday. Because of price action and wave structure, we wait for a further rise to 0.7355 fractal resistance (Fibonacci projection, horizontal resistance) for a drop to 0.7300.

RSI (34) is below long term descending resistance line with a little space above it to support the rise to 0.7355 which we expect the reaction from for price.

Reason for the trading strategy (fundamentally):

The main news event today is the Durable goods orders in US. It measures the cost of orders received by manufacturers for durable goods, which means goods planned to last for three years or more, such as motor vehicles and appliances. As those durable products often involve large investments they are sensitive to the US economic situation. The final figure shows the state of US production activity. Our consensus for today is that we’ll be seeing a higher reading which is bullish for the USD. This goes in line with the bearish NZDUSD view we have for today.

 

[meeru]

trading strategy (technically):
Our inverse head and shoulders was triggered perfectly as expected. The goal today is to buy on pullback to neckline support at 0.9650 to play a further push up to 0.9705 before 0.9765
RSI (21) is seeing support from an ascending support line which is holding price up.
Strategy for the day is to add onto your position at 0.9650 and take 50% profits at 0.9705 and moving stop loss to breakeven. Take remaining profits at 0.9765.
Reason for the trading strategy (fundamentally):
The main news event today is the Durable goods orders in US. It measures the cost of orders received by manufacturers for durable goods, which means goods planned to last for three years or more, such as motor vehicles and appliances. As those durable products often involve large investments they are sensitive to the US economic situation. The final figure shows the state of US production activity. Our consensus for today is that we’ll be seeing a higher reading which is bullish for the USD. This goes in line with the bullish USDCHF view we have for today.

 

[meeru]

AUDNZD remaining bullish

Cross rate
Aug. 31, 2016, 10:51
Buy above 1.0390. Stop loss at 1.0360. Take profit at 1.0475.

Reason for the trading strategy (technically):

AUDNZD are above major support at 1.0390 (Fibonacci projection, horizontal support) and expect a bounce from here to at least 1.0475 resistance (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal resistance).

RSI (21) is seeing support at 29%.

Stochastics (21,5,3) is seeing major support at 10%.

 

[meeru]

USDCHF at major resistance, sell now

USDCHF
Aug. 31, 2016, 10:59
Sel below 0.9850. Stop loss at 0.9900. Take profit at 0.9765.

Reason for the trading strategy (technically):

Price reached our inverse head and shoulder profit target perfectly previously. Today, price reversed right below major resistance at 0.9850 (horizontal overlap resistance, Fibonacci retracement, Fibonacci projection) and displays bearish divergence vs RSI, all these signal to us that a drop is approaching to at least 0.9765.

RSI (21) is seeing major resistance at 74% and also seeing bearish divergence vs price.

 

[meeru]

USDJPY remaining bearish

USDJPY
Aug. 31, 2016, 10:34
Sell below 103.10 resistance. Stop loss raised to 104.00. Take profit adjusted to 101.00

Reason for the trading strategy (technically):

We look to sell below 103.10 resistance (Fibonacci retracement, Fibonacci projection, horizontal resistance) for a drop to 101.00.

RSI (21) is at an area of resistance and displaying bearish divergence vs price.

Stochastics (21,5,3) is at an area of resistance and displaying bearish divergence vs price too.

Reason for the trading strategy (fundamentally):

The major news item affecting US markets today is the Conference Board Consumer Confidence which measures the consumer confidence in economic activity. A higher than expected reading would be bullish for the USD. The recent consensus is we’re expecting a drop which would go in line with the bearish USDJPY view we have today.

 

[meeru]

USDCHF reacted off selling area perfectly, remain bearish

USDCHF
Sept. 1, 2016, 04:26
Sel below 0.9850. Stop loss at 0.9900. Take profit at 0.9765.

Reason for the trading strategy (technically):

Price rose and reached our selling area perfectly at major resistance 0.9850 (horizontal overlap resistance, Fibonacci retracement, Fibonacci projection) and displays bearish divergence vs RSI, all these signal to us that a drop is approaching to at least 0.9765.

RSI (21) is seeing major resistance at 74% and also seeing bearish divergence vs price. It has also made a bearish exit signalling a big drop is impending.

Reason for the trading strategy (fundamentally):

The major news item affecting US markets today is the U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI. It reflect sentiment towards inflation and labor conditions - two of the market's most significant health indicators.*A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD. The forecast for this month is a decrease from the previous 52.6 to 52.0 and we’re expecting it to drop even further below 52.0. The decrease goes in line with our bearish USDCHF view.

https://goo.gl/KFJDg0

 

[meeru]

USDCHF reversed perfectly as expected, remain bearish

USDCHF
Sept. 2, 2016, 04:51
Sell below 0.9818 resistance. Stop loss at 0.9850. Take profit at 0.9710.

Reason for the trading strategy (technically):

Price reversed perfectly as expected and is reaching our profit target. We remain bearish looking to sell on pullback resistance at 0.9818 (Fibonacci retracement, pullback resistance) for a push down to 0.9710. Our stop loss is adjusted to break even as we look to play a big target today.

RSI (21) has made a bearish exit of its ascending support-turned-resistance line which is a signal to us that a bearish move is in progress.

Reason for the trading strategy (fundamentally):

The major news item affecting U.S. markets today is the change in Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP). We have found a very interesting correlation on how NFP tends to underperform when there is a weak ISM result seen yesterday. Forecasts generally point to a weaker NFP and we expect there to be an even bigger drop meaning a bearish USD which goes in line with the bearish USDCHF we are expecting.

https://goo.gl/KFJDg0

 

[meeru]

NZDUSD almost reached profit target before bouncing, turn bullish

NZDUSD
Sept. 2, 2016, 04:49
Buy above 0.7272. Stop loss at 0.7240. Take profit at 0.7333.

Reason for the trading strategy (technically):

NZDUSD reacted off our selling area perfectly and almost reached our profit target before bouncing. This time we turn bullish above 0.7272 major support (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap support) to play the bounce up to 0.7333 which is the profit potential of our double bottom pattern.

RSI (21) also remains in an ascending channel.

Reason for the trading strategy (fundamentally):

The major news item affecting U.S. markets today is the change in Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP). We have found a very interesting correlation on how NFP tends to underperform when there is a weak ISM result seen yesterday. Forecasts generally point to a weaker NFP and we expect there to be an even bigger drop meaning a bearish USD which goes in line with the bullish NZDUSD we are expecting.

 

[meeru]

USDJPY reversed right below our stop loss, remain bearish

USDJPY
Sept. 2, 2016, 04:44
Sell below 103.06 resistance. Stop loss remains at 104.00. Take profit adjusted to 101.60.

Reason for the trading strategy (technically):

Price rose to right below our stop loss and reversed perfectly. We hold onto our shorts and look for price to drop towards the 101.60 levels today which is a fractal support (horizontal support, Fibonacci retracement)

RSI (21) has reacted off resistance and shows very strong bearish divergence vs price.

Reason for the trading strategy (fundamentally):

The major news item affecting U.S. markets today is the change in Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP). We have found a very interesting correlation on how NFP tends to underperform when there is a weak ISM result seen yesterday. Forecasts generally point to a weaker NFP and we expect there to be an even bigger drop meaning a bearish USD which goes in line with the bearish USDJPY we are expecting.

https://goo.gl/KFJDg0