The price indeed formed reversal pattern, if we use ABC wave, this zone possible become point B, where will be a starting point to the bullish pattern on the wave, this analyze based technical analytic with consideration to Elliot wave theory and ABCD pattern, but fundamental news can impact to currency.
In yesterday's market, the price eventually drops, it formed new low if compared with the previous day, the reversal pattern becomes invalid, this still indecision market, based on the weekly timeframe, indeed the trend is bearish, RSI level 35 indicate down market. In H1 timeframe, the price move in middle band BB, its formed BB squeeze, it's mean less volatile, trader waiting on London session market, it possible to breakout.
The price eventually continue to bearish, the price break the low and going further away from the open price, the candle formed long body candle, EURUSD continues to bearish, now in H1 price movement in retrace, usually this is normal condition when the trend strong occurs, they will face to retracement before continuing initial trend,
There is small movement occurs on yesterday market, the bearish trend in retest, Friday market should be careful when the market move in random, the one reason why in the time end of the week will there is big trader close position buy and sell to avoid swap overnight over a week.
Today morning, I see the price occurs small gap based M15 timeframe, the price open below close price with gap few pips in distance, now the price already recover the gap, and based daily timeframe formed reversal pattern, but it valid or invalid, now back on H1 price move still on the range high to low in an appropriate timeframe, if price break high it possible to rise more.
The price eventually drops and now landing at the previous low, yesterday price unsuccess to break high and bring the price to drops again, based weekly timeframe, the price tends to bearish, meanwhile monthly timeframe the price also still tend to bearish in long term, BB line is squeezed, it's mean decreasing volatility, but usually it will become a signal to breakout and increasing volatility.
The price again to break low and formed a new low, downtrend still continue on yesterday market, major trend still in bearish based weekly, but like as dow theory, the price will weak if so many speculators already enter the market, this become caution, when looking short trading better waiting on a retracement to reduce the possibility of risk counter-trend as a temporary movement.
Now in H1 price formed bulls candle, but still, in short candlestick body, volume decrease in Asian session, will possibly trade use London breakout, meanwhile, BB line expanded assign increasing volatility, RSI value 47 assign downtrend market.
The price eventually retrace and figure out bulls candle on yesterday market, uptrend tension was quite strong and created long body candle,
now looking based H1 timeframe, the price tends to be bullish but power already decreases, meanwhile BB line has to expand as increase volatility, meanwhile RSI value in H1 is 65, it close to overbought zone rsI based on level 70.
The history price on yesterday market is bullish, but then get a push from the seller and eventually the candle formed Pin bar with long-tail body candle, in simple explanation, long tail that occurs described volume demand already decrease and supply increase, in technical analysis, pinbar is included one candle as a reversal pattern, but still waiting for the next confirmation, now in H1, price move on the small range, the next scenario for simple trading setup is when price success to break high, the price possible to bullish, but if break low, reversal pattern may be valid.
RSI level daily 40, downtrend, price move in middle BB line as medium resistance.
No gaps occur on this morning, the price movement is normal, now the price is at 1.15999, it's still on the H1 range that formed on the previous week, support level close to 1.15865, this is a price level where already been rejected three times, meanwhile buyers pressure not yet increase to push price higher, the high formed still lower than the previous high, the next trading scenario, if price breakout the support level, possible will push the price continue to down.
