Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

[Andrea ForexMart]

Technical Analysis for GBP/USD: March 10

For the first time in three months, the Industrial Production for February expanded based on the National Statistics Office. In December, the index showed improvement by 0.3% on a monthly basis after a decrease by 1.1%. The growth was also the most remarkable in in five months aside from the first in three months. Nevertheless, an increase rate of 0.4% is what the economists hoped for. And for the moment, the Manufacturing Production raised by 0.7% while the report was 0.2%.

The first support occurs at 1.4160 and at 1.4080 subsequently. The first resistance resides at 1.4240 and at 1.4320 subsequently.

A confirmed and a sturdy buy signal has been found. The price is over the Ichimoku Cloud and it is on top of the Chikou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen form an ascending movement. The upward movement will remain until the price is over the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive location. The indicator is declining.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

Fundamental Analysis: March 11

On Thursday, the sole European currency was limelighted. Aiming to support the economy in a low inflation environment, the European Central Bank (ECB) had to improve its measures. The primary news for the day were the Bank's resolution regarding monetary policy and Mario Draghi's press conference.

The ECB was certain that monetary policy should be simplified yet the new rate cuts would not be going to happen as the regulator made it clear. It has been expected that the ECB cut its deposit rate by 10 points.

In comparison to the previous month data of 20,3 billion, the Germany issued Trade Balance that occurs at 18,9 billion. These data was changed upwards to 18,8 billion. For the last month, an increase rate of 19,6 billion is what the experts anticipated.

The Bank of England is not willing to grow the interest rates in conformity with the British macroeconomic data.In a few months, the UK shall manage a referendum on the UK exit from the EU. This also cause the British pound to be under pressure. The growth can be regarded as a consolidation from being low for seven years.

In spite of the increasing risks when the Consumer Price Index of China turned out better than what was expected, the Japanese currency became under pressure. Meanwhile, the US has issued the Initial Jobless Claims. The index showed 259,000 wherein the economists had expected a decrease from 277,000 to 275,000.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

Technical Analysis for GBP/USD: March 14

In conformity of the UK National Statistics Office, the country's trade shortage which is seasonally rectified, tapered in December from £10,45 billion to £10.29 billion. The previous month's data was re-evaluated up to £9.92 billion. In January, the trade shortage reached £10,3 billion according to economists forecast.

The first support is at 1.4320 and at 1.4240 subsequently. The first resistance is at 1.4400 and at 1.4480 subsequently.

A confirmed and a sturdy buy signal has been found. The price is over the Ichimoku Cloud and it is on top of the Chikou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen form an upward movement. The ascending movement will remain until the price is over the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive location. The indicator is increasing.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

Fundamental Analysis: March 15

The Fed's probable declaration will be the primary driver to start up the week. The Central Banks will be the center of attraction this week and the BOJ, the Fed and the Bank of England will going to declare their decisions. The banks' statements can still be a reason of volatility although we're not looking forward for surprises.

Risk aversion has been elicited and the dollar came under pressure cause by the ECB President Mario Draghi's statement regarding the lack of demand for new procedures last week. In someway, traders cope up to focus on new ECB's large-scale incentives which heightened the need for the dollar at the end of the trading week. Erkki Liikanen's statement, ECB representative, about the rates being cohered at the present or lower levels unless the target inflation level is reached, adds up some buoyancy. It gave the market tranquility as well as bringing hope to investors that the European regulator had more plans. On Monday, the euro/dollar pair declined by the end of the trades.

The favorable data of the UK trade shortage did not support the price to improve as the data showed £ -3.459 billion, and this also did not made any impression on the GBP/USD. Yet if the dollar came under a wave of selling, the pound consolidated. In someway, the pound/dollar pair fell by the end of the trades on Monday.

However, the USD/JPY pair were even as it goes on the trades.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

Technical Analysis for USD/JPY: March 16

As the Bank of Japan kept its monetary policy unchanged, the yen increase as expected. The bank calculates the economic effect of its January decision to reduce the rate to negative values. Though this decision does not cause the yen to modulate, however some traders still think that the simplification measures of the Bank of Japan missed out its productiveness. Now, the traders' center of attraction goes out to the Federal Reserve's meeting.

The first support occurs at 113.00 and at 112.20 subsequently. The first resistance lies at 113.80 and at 114.60 subsequently.

The price is in the Ichimoku Cloud and it is over the Chikou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen form a horizontal movement displaying a "Dead Cross". The MACD indicator is in a neutral location. The price is falling.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

Fundamental Analysis: March 17

The concerns regarding about the American regulator's hawkish actions, the Bank of Japan's idleness on it's last meeting, the decrease of oil prices and the issue of British exit from the EU being resumed were the main cause of risk aversion.

The press conference of Janet Yellen was the investor's center of attraction and the market did not hope for any revision of rates from the Federal Reserve. As we have all known, Yellen's statement did not have any difference from the previous statements. The regulator stated that the Fed will heighten the rates only if the regulator finds growth and the labor market positive tendency as the monetary authorities will closely monitor incoming macroeconomic data. Yellen did not confirmed the date of the next rate hike yet and said that Fed's attainment should involve a lower pace of rate growth. The EUR/USD pair grew.

Two important releases was published by the UK. First is the unemployment rate for January which occurs at the reported level wherein the recent value was -5.1% and the report was 5.1%. Next is the Average Earnings including bonus for January which came in at the level 2,1% wherein the recent value was 1.9% and the report was 2.0%. The GBP/USD pair increased by the end of the trades.

The USD/JPY was expected to leave the flat soon but this can be very volatile. Japan's economy continuously shows a slowdown and it does not need a sturdy yen. Simultaneously, the strong dollar is not a pleasing factor for the US Federal Reserve due to the negative impact to US exporters brought by the strong dollar. The USD/JPY pair decreased by the end of the trades.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

Technical Analysis for USD/CHF: March 18

The Fed's decision to keep the monetary policy unchanged cause the dollar to descend aggressively in opposition to the Swiss franc. As we have anticipated, the regulator was certain to left the policy unchanged as the National Bank of Switzerland hold its meeting on Thursday.

The first support occurs at 0.9660 and at 0.9580 subsequently. The first resistance resides at 0.9750 and at 0.9850 subsequently.

A confirmed and a sturdy sell signal has been found. The price is below the Ichimoku Cloud and it is below the Chikou Span. The Tenkan-sen forms a descending movement and the Kijun-sen displays a horizontal movement. The downward movement will remain until the price is below the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative location. The price is declining.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

Fundamental Analysis: March 21

The Fed meeting has gone by and the regulator made changes in his plans and declared only two rate hikes instead of four. The market also remained unstable after the meeting.

The demand for euro as a funding currency keep on growing in spite of the fact that the "risk appetite" is also increasing. This factor was completely disregarded by the market which manifested the presence of strong buyers. The dynamics of the debt market signified varied trends as the 10-year government bonds yield in Germany increased in connection in the UK, but decreased to US Treasuries. The EUR/USD pair decreased by the end of the trades.

We did not received any significant macroeconomic data from the UK. We think that investors will be more attentive on the dynamics of oil market. Improving the highest of the last trading week, black gold fell by 3%. The demand for oil affected the pound/dollar pair in a usual positive way. The GBP/USD grew by the end of the trades.

The dollar/yen pair marked a new low for the last 14 months. This kind of aggrandizement of the yen could be a menace to exporters and may also disgruntle the monetary authorities of Japan. The US issued consumer confidence from the University of Michigan wherein it showed 91,7 contrary to the reported 92,1. The USD/JPY pair grew by the end of the trades.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

Technical Analysis for USD/JPY: March 22

As the United States and Japan government bonds yields divergence decreased to some extent, the debt market dynamics manifested an averaged demand for the Japanese currency. This also cause to lessen the appeal of the US assets. The USD/JPY pair grew a bit by the end of the trades.

The first support occurs at 111.40 and at 110.60 subsequently. The first resistance lies at 112.20 and at 113.00 subsequently.

A confirmed and a sturdy sell signal has been found. The price is below the Ichimoku Cloud and it is below the Chikou Span. The Tenkan-sen forms an ascending motion and the Kijun-sen displays a horizontal motion. The descending movement will remain until the price is below the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a negative location. The price is retrieving.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

Fundamental Analysis: March 23

Being halted from increasing in opposition to the major currencies on Tuesday, the dollar still gained support caused by the investors who stick on being heedful as a round of terrorist attacks in Brussels killed 26 people and left more than 100 injured. This devastating events in Brussels affected the euro and the British pound negatively.

The market slightly strengthened in the absence of important macroeconomic reports. Likewise, US releases did not help to enliven the market. The existing Home Sales for February embark at a low level wherein it was lessened by 7.1% whereas analysts had hoped for a more moderate fall of 2.8%. The Chicago Fed National Activity Index for February embarked at -0.29 contrary to the reported +.025 and the previous value of +0.41.

Our focus will be on the IFO Institute release. The dynamics of Gross Domestic Product of Germany is closely corresponded with this indicator and investors always keep an eye on it. This indicator has been consistently giving a negative trend for the last three months. In the midst of euro's growth, the market did not anticipated the data to be better than the consensus report. However, the data embarked at the level of 106,7 contrary to the reported 106,0. The euro/dollar pair decreased.

An Inflation Report was released by the UK. As expected, the sturdy labor market data pointed to the forecast that was a little better than the consensus report. The average monthly income was 0.2% in the last three months which would heighten inflationary pressures whilst the unemployment in UK is at the bottom-most level now since 2005. The Consumer Price Index embarked at the level of 0,3% y/y and 0,2% m/m contrary to the reported 0,4% y/y and 0,4% m/m. The pound/dollar pair aggressively declined by the end of the trades.

As of now, we are not expecting a sturdy increase of quotations. The investors were not pleased with the United States' poor macroeconomic data wherein the Existing Home Sales for February lessened by 7.1%. The home sales reduced by 6.7% from January to March which only certified again the assumptions that the Americans started to save more than spending. The dollar/yen pair became stronger.