Daily and Weekly News Update by LQDFX

[Daniel LQDFX]

03 November 2023​

Friday​

Keep an eye on your calendars for Friday, November 3, 2023, as it's slated to bring a series of high-impact announcements from both Canada and the United States. Canada will reveal its crucial Employment Change data along with the Unemployment Rate, shedding light on the labor market's health. Meanwhile, south of the border, the US is set to disclose significant economic indicators, including Average Hourly Earnings m/m, Non-Farm Employment Change, the Unemployment Rate, and the ISM Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI). These releases are poised to draw attention from markets and analysts, potentially influencing investment decisions and market trends. Stay tuned for the latest updates and analysis on these pivotal announcements.​

CAD - Employment Change​

The creation of jobs serves as a vital leading indicator for consumer spending, which constitutes a significant portion of the overall economic activity.

In September 2023, Canada's job market saw a substantial increase of 63.8K jobs, the highest surge in eight months and surpassing expectations of a 20K rise. Job gains were particularly notable in educational services (+66,000) and transportation & warehousing (+19,000). However, certain sectors such as finance, insurance, real estate, rental & leasing (-20,000), construction (-18,000), and information, culture & recreation (-12,000) experienced decreases in employment. Both part-time (+48,000) and full-time (+15,800) positions saw growth. Job expansion extended across six provinces, with Quebec (+39,000) and British Columbia (+26,000) leading the way, while Alberta (-38,000) and New Brunswick (-2,700) witnessed declines. The unemployment rate remained steady at 5.5%, unchanged for the third consecutive month, marking the highest level since January 2022.

TL;DR

The upcoming Employment Change data is scheduled for release on Friday, November 3, 2023, at 12:30 PM GMT+1.

The forecast for Canadian Employment Change is reading a decreased 14,000 thousand.

Last time, the Employment Change was announced on the 6th of October, 2023. You may find the market reaction graph (GBPCAD M1) below:

CAD - Unemployment Rate​

While typically considered a lagging indicator, the unemployment rate remains a crucial signal of overall economic well-being due to its strong correlation with consumer spending and labor-market conditions.

In August 2023, Canada's unemployment rate remained stable at 5.5%, slightly below the estimated 5.6%. Although there was a slight increase in joblessness, it stayed lower than pre-pandemic levels. The economy added 63.8K jobs, significantly surpassing the expected 20K. Unemployment increased for core-aged men, while it remained stable for core-aged women. Youth unemployment has shown little change since May.

The forthcoming Unemployment Rate data is set for release on Friday, November 3, 2023, at 12:30 PM GMT+1.

The forecast for the Canadian Unemployment Rate is reading an unchanged 5.5%.

Last time, the Unemployment Change was announced on the 6th of October, 2023. You may find the market reaction graph (GBPCAD M1) below:

USD - Average Hourly Earnings m/m​

This metric holds the distinction of being a precursor to consumer inflation. The pattern becomes evident as businesses increase labor expenses, with the resultant higher costs typically being transferred to consumers.

In September 2023, average hourly earnings for all employees in the US private nonfarm payrolls increased by 7 cents, equivalent to a 0.2% rise, matching the previous month's pace and slightly below market expectations of a 0.3% increase. During the same period, average hourly earnings for private-sector production and nonsupervisory employees saw a 6-cent, or 0.2%, increase, reaching $29.06. Over the past year, average hourly earnings have grown by 4.2%, marking the slowest growth rate since June 2021 and falling below market projections of a 4.3% increase.

TL;DR

The upcoming Average Hourly Earnings m/m data is scheduled for release on Friday, November 3, 2023, at 12:30 PM GMT+1.

The forecast for Average Hourly Earnings m/m suggests a marginal uptick from 0.2% to 0.3%.

USD - Non-Farm Employment Change​

Traders closely monitor Average Hourly Earnings month-on-month (m/m) as it serves as a key indicator of consumer inflation. When businesses raise labor costs, these additional expenses are frequently passed on to consumers, influencing overall inflation.

In September 2023, US nonfarm payrolls surged by 336K, surpassing market expectations of 170K and marking the strongest job gain in eight months. This robust performance, well above the 70K-100K needed for population growth, indicates a resilient labor market despite the Federal Reserve's tightening measures. Job gains were notable in leisure and hospitality, government, health care, professional services, and social assistance sectors. Other major industries saw little change in employment levels.

TL;DR

The forthcoming Non-Farm Employment Change data is scheduled for release on Friday, November 3, 2023, at 12:30 PM GMT+1.

The forecast for Non-Farm Payrolls suggests a decrease from 336,000 to 172,000.

Last time, the Non-Farm Employment Change was announced on the 6th of October, 2023. You may find the market reaction graph (AUDUSD M1) below:

USD - Unemployment Rate​

Although it is frequently viewed as a lagging indicator, the unemployment rate retains its significance as a crucial measure of economic well-being. This is primarily due to its strong connection with consumer spending and its impact on decisions regarding monetary policy.

In September 2023, the US unemployment rate remained unchanged at 3.8%, slightly exceeding expectations of 3.7%. Nonetheless, it indicated a historically tight labor market. This stability provides the Federal Reserve with flexibility to sustain higher borrowing costs for an extended duration. Furthermore, the U-6 unemployment rate, encompassing discouraged workers and part-timers, decreased to 7%, while the labor force participation rate held steady at 62.8%, marking the highest level since February 2020.

TL;DR

The Unemployment Rate is scheduled for release on Friday, November 3, 2023, at 12:30 PM GMT+1.

The forecast for the unemployment rate remains consistent at 3.8%, in line with the previous figure.

Last time, the Unemployment Rate was announced on the 6th of October, 2023. You may find the market reaction graph (AUDUSD M1) below:

USD - ISM Services PMI​

ISM Services PMI serves as a leading gauge of economic well-being as businesses respond swiftly to market conditions. Purchasing managers, with their up-to-the-minute insights, offer one of the most relevant perspectives on a company's economic outlook

In September, the U.S. services sector maintained its expansion for the ninth consecutive month, registering a Services PMI reading of 53.6%, albeit slightly lower than August's 54.5%. Over the past 40 months, this sector has witnessed growth in 39 of them, with only a single contraction recorded in December 2022. Notable highlights include a rise in the Business Activity Index to 58.8% and the Supplier Deliveries Index entering expansion territory at 50.4%. The Prices Index held steady at 58.9%, and the Inventory Sentiment Index expanded for the fifth consecutive month. Thirteen industries reported growth, with Real Estate, Rental & Leasing leading the pack. Despite a slight moderation in the growth rate, the services sector maintains a positive outlook, albeit with some concerns regarding potential challenges on the horizon.

TL;DR

The upcoming ISM Services PMI is scheduled for release on Friday, November 3, 2023, at 2:00 PM GMT+1.

The forecast for the ISM Services PMI suggests a minor uptick from 53.6 to 53.7.

Last time, the ISM Services PMI was announced on the 4th of October, 2023. You may find the market reaction graph (EURUSD M1) below:

---

Disclaimer: The market news provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as trading advice.

 

[Daniel LQDFX]

***Corrections***

01 November 2023​

Wednesday​

USD – JOLTS Job Openings​

Traders pay close attention to this data despite its delayed release because it can significantly influence the market. Job openings serve as a leading indicator of the overall employment landscape, highlighting the importance of this information for traders.

In August 2023, the number of job openings surged by 690,000 compared to the previous month, reaching 9.61 million. This figure significantly exceeded market expectations of 8.8 million and indicated a robust labor market, despite the Federal Reserve’s unprecedented monetary policy tightening measures. Job openings saw notable increases in professional and business services (+509,000), finance and insurance (+96,000), state and local government education (+76,000), nondurable goods manufacturing (+59,000), and federal government (+31,000). Moreover, job openings increased across all regions, including the Northeast (+51,000), the South (+278,000), the Midwest (+238,000), and the West (+124,000).

TL;DR

The upcoming JOLTS Job Openings report is scheduled for release on Wednesday, November 1, 2023, at 2:00 PM GMT+1. This data release is closely monitored by analysts and traders for its insights into the state of the labor market, making it a significant event on the economic calendar.

The forecast for JOLTS job openings indicates a decline from 9.61 million to 9.2 million.

Last time, the JOLTS Job Openings was announced on the 3rd of October, 2023. You may find the market reaction graph (GBPUSD M1) below:

USD - Federal Funds Rate​

Short-term interest rates are the primary driver of currency valuation, with most other indicators serving as predictors of future rate changes for traders.

At the Economic Club of New York, Fed Chair Powell discussed the Fed's cautious approach, stating that policymakers had determined the extent of additional policy tightening and the duration of policy restrictions based on incoming data, evolving outlook, and risk assessment. Powell noted that the tight policy had a dampening effect on economic activity and inflation. While further evidence of sustained above-trend growth or labor market tightness no longer easing could jeopardize progress on inflation, potentially requiring additional tightening of monetary policy. Powell also acknowledged that inflation remained elevated, and achieving the 2% inflation goal might entail a period of below-trend growth and some labor market softening. In the September 2023 meeting, the Fed had maintained the federal funds rate target range at a 22-year high of 5.25%-5.5%

TL;DR

The upcoming Federal Funds Rate decision is scheduled for Wednesday, November 1, 2023, at 6:00 PM GMT+1.

The forecast for the Federal Funds Rate remains unchanged at 5.5%, consistent with the previous figure.

Last time, the Federal Funds Rate was announced on the 21st of September, 2023. You may find the market reaction graph (EURUSD M1) below:

02 November 2023​

Thursday​

On Thursday, November 2, 2023, the market anticipates significant high-impact announcements. Switzerland will release its Consumer Price Index month-on-month (CPI m/m), the UK is scheduled to make an announcement regarding its Official Bank Rate, and the US will unveil its unemployment claims data. These events are likely to have a notable impact on market dynamics.​

CHF - CPI m/m​

Consumer prices play a significant role in the overall inflation, and inflation holds a crucial position in currency valuation as escalating prices prompt the central bank to increase interest rates in line with their mandate to control inflation.

On October 3, 2023, the Federal Statistical Office (FSO) reported that the consumer price index (CPI) experienced a 0.1% decrease in September 2023 compared to the preceding month, resulting in a reading of 106.3 points (December 2020 = 100). Inflation for the same month, when compared to the previous year, stood at +1.7%. This decline in CPI can be attributed to various factors, including reduced prices in the hotel and supplementary accommodation sectors, as well as decreases in airfare and prices for both domestic and international package holidays. On the other hand, prices for leisure-time courses, fuels, heating oil, clothing, and footwear saw increases during this period.

TL;DR

The upcoming CPI m/m is set for publication on Thursday, November 2, 2023, at 07:30 AM GMT+1.

The forecast for the CPI m/m suggests a rise from -0.1% to 0.2%.

Last time, the CPI m/m was announced on the 3rd of October, 2023. You may find the market reaction graph (USDCHF M1) below:

GBP - Official Bank Rate​

Short-term interest rates are the primary determinant of currency valuation, with traders predominantly using other indicators to forecast future rate movements.

On September 21st, the Bank of England decided to maintain its policy interest rate at 5.25%, marking its highest level since 2008. This choice marked a departure from the bank's series of 515 basis points (bps) rate hikes over the past two years, reflecting a cautious approach influenced by recent data on inflation and the labor market. The Monetary Policy Committee voted 5-4 in favor of keeping rates unchanged, with four members advocating for a 0.25% increase. Despite ongoing pressure from rising oil prices, the central bank anticipates a decline in Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation in the near term, attributed to lower energy costs and ongoing decreases in food and core goods prices. Policymakers also reiterated their readiness to implement further tightening measures if deemed necessary.

TL;DR

The upcoming Official Bank Rate announcement is scheduled for Thursday, November 2, 2023, at 12:00 PM GMT+1.

The forecast for the UK Official Bank Rate anticipates that the rate will remain unchanged at its previous level of 5.25%.

Last time, the Official Bank Rate was announced on the 21st of September, 2023. You may find the market reaction graph (GBPUSD M1) below:

USD - Unemployment Claims​

Although often seen as a lagging indicator, the number of unemployed individuals carries substantial significance as it reflects the overall economic health. This is due to the strong correlation between labor market conditions and consumer spending. Additionally, unemployment plays a crucial role in the decisions made by those responsible for shaping the country's monetary policy.

In the week ending October 21, the seasonally adjusted initial jobless claims increased by 10,000 to 210,000, with the previous week's figure revised upward by 2,000. The 4-week moving average rose to 207,500, an increase of 1,250, and the previous week's average was revised upward by 500. The insured unemployment rate remained unchanged at 1.2%, with 1,790,000 people receiving insured unemployment benefits, an increase of 63,000 from the previous week's revised level, which was adjusted downward by 7,000. The 4-week moving average for insured unemployment increased by 31,250, with the previous week's average revised downward by 1,750.

TL;DR

The upcoming Unemployment Claims announcement is scheduled for Thursday, November 2, 2023, at 1:00 PM GMT+1.

The forecast for Unemployment Claims indicates a rise from 210,000 to 217,000.

Last time, the Unemployment Claims was announced on the 26th of October, 2023. You may find the market reaction graph (USDJPY M1) below:

 

[Daniel LQDFX]

Daily News Update: 07th November 2023​

​

07 November 2023​

Tuesday​

On Tuesday, November 7th, 2023, Australia is scheduled to unveil its Cash Rate alongside the RBA Rate Statement. This important financial event will be closely watched by market participants and analysts for insights into Australia's monetary policy and economic outlook.​

AUD - Cash Rate​

In the world of currency valuation, short-term interest rates take center stage. Traders often analyze various indicators primarily to anticipate future rate movements. These rates play a pivotal role in shaping currency values, making them a key focus for market participants.

In its recent policy meeting on Tuesday, October 3rd, 2023, the Reserve Bank of Australia opted to maintain the status quo by keeping the current interest rate steady at 4.10%. This decision had the potential to exert downward pressure on the Australian currency pair. Nonetheless, a Reuters poll suggested a possible rate hike in the near future, with expectations of rates reaching a peak of 4.35% by year-end. This potential increase was attributed to persistent inflation levels that continued to surpass the target set by the central bank.

The upcoming Cash Rate decision is scheduled for November 7, 2023, at 3:30 AM GMT.

The most recent Cash Rate decision for Australia stood at 4.1%, aligning with the current forecast of 4.1%.

Last time, the Australian Cash Rate was announced on the 3rd of October, 2023. You may find the market reaction graph (AUDUSD M1) below:

AUD – Reserve Bank of Australia Rate Statement​

One of the key instruments utilized by the RBA Reserve Bank Board to engage with investors regarding monetary policy is the RBA Rate Statement. This statement encapsulates the verdict on interest rates, provides insights into the economic factors shaping their decision, and, critically, sheds light on the economic prospects while hinting at potential future actions.

The next RBA Rate Statement is expected to come out on November 7, 2023, at 3:30 AM GMT.

---

Disclaimer: The market news provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as trading advice.

 

[Daniel LQDFX]

Update

The forecast for the Australian Cash Rate is reading an increase to 4.35%.

 

[Daniel LQDFX]

Daily News Update: 08th November 2023​

​

08 November 2023​

Wednesday​

In a notable development, New Zealand is gearing up to unveil its Inflation Expectations q/q report on Wednesday, November 8th, 2023.​

NZD - Inflation Expectations q/q​

Anticipated future inflation can trigger real inflation when employees demand higher wages in anticipation of rising prices.

In New Zealand, inflation expectations for the third quarter of 2023 increased to 2.83 percent from the 2.79 percent recorded in the second quarter of 2023. This followed a historical trend, with inflation expectations in the country averaging 2.53 percent between 1987 and 2023. The highest recorded inflation expectation occurred in the third quarter of 1987 at 8.30 percent, while the lowest point was reached in the second quarter of 2020 at 1.24 percent.

The Inflation Expectations q/q data is scheduled for release on Wednesday, November 8th, 2023, at 02:00 AM GMT.

The projected figure for Inflation Expectations q/q stands at 2.6%, signifying a decline from the previous rate of 2.83%.

Last time, the New Zealand Inflation Rate was announced on the 9th of August, 2023. You may find the market reaction graph (NZDUSD M1) below:

---

Disclaimer: The market news provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as trading advice.

 

[Daniel LQDFX]

Daily News Update​

​

09 November 2023​

Thursday​

A pivotal day in the economic calendar approaches, as on Thursday, November 9th, 2023, both China and the United States are slated to make significant announcements. China will be revealing its CPI y/y data, while the United States is scheduled to release its unemployment claims figures.​

CNY – CPI y/y​

Consumer prices carry substantial weight in determining the overall inflation rate, a critical factor in currency valuation. This is due to the fact that when prices rise, central banks typically respond by increasing interest rates. The correlation between inflation and interest rates holds significant implications for currency fluctuations and trading strategies, making it a focal point for market participants.

In September, China's CPI remained flat with no year-on-year (YoY) growth, following a slight uptick of 0.1% in August. This figure fell short of market expectations, which had anticipated a 0.2% increase. On a monthly basis, Chinese CPI inflation rebounded to 0.2% in September, marking a significant recovery from the 0.3% decline observed in August and surpassing the expected 0.3% rise. In contrast, China's Producer Price Index (PPI) experienced a 2.5% YoY drop in September, marking an improvement from the 3.0% decline recorded earlier. The market had foreseen a 2.4% decline for the ninth month of the year.

TL;DR

On November 9th, 2023, at 1:30 AM GMT, China will unveil its CPI y/y data.

The forecast for China's CPI y/y suggests a rise to 0.2%, marking an increase from the previous 0.0%.

Last time, the Chinese CPI y/y was announced on the 13th of October, 2023. You may find the market reaction graph (USDCNH M1) below:

USD - Unemployment Claims​

Although typically viewed as a trailing indicator, the number of jobless individuals carries substantial significance as it reflects the general economic health, given the robust link between labor market conditions and consumer expenditure. Unemployment also plays a crucial role in the decisions made by those responsible for guiding the nation's monetary policy.

In the latest report, the number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits rose by 5,000 to 217,000, exceeding market expectations and hitting a two-month high. Continuing claims also increased by 35,000 to 1,818,000, the highest since April, indicating challenges for job seekers. This data aligns with the Federal Reserve's concerns about a softening labor market, despite historically tight conditions. The four-week moving average increased by 2,000 to 210,000, and non-seasonally adjusted claims showed notable spikes in Michigan, California, and North Carolina.

The next report on Unemployment Claims is scheduled for Thursday, November 9th, 2023, at 1:30 PM GMT.

The forecast for Unemployment Claims anticipates a slight uptick from 217,000 to 220,000.

Last time, the US Unemployment Claims was announced on the 2nd of November, 2023. You may find the market reaction graph (GBPUSD M1 below:

---

Disclaimer: The market news provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as trading advice.

 

[Daniel LQDFX]

​

Daily News Update​

10 November 2023​

Friday​

On November 10, 2023, the UK is set to unveil its monthly Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures, while the United States will release the Preliminary University of Michigan (UoM) Consumer Sentiment Index. These economic indicators will provide valuable insights into the economic performance and consumer sentiment in both countries.​

GBP - GDP m/m​

This indicator holds significant importance as it constitutes the most comprehensive gauge of economic activity and plays a pivotal role in assessing the overall health of the economy.

In August 2023, the UK's monthly real GDP saw a 0.2% increase, following a 0.6% decline in July 2023. It's worth noting that these figures incorporate revisions to prior months as part of the National Accounts Revisions Policy. In a broader timeframe, GDP exhibited a 0.3% growth over the three months leading up to August 2023, compared to the three months ending in May 2023. Notably, the production sector played a significant role in driving this growth, expanding by 1.2%. Additionally, there were modest increases in the services and construction sectors, with growth rates of 0.1% and 0.9%, respectively.

TL;DR

The upcoming release of the GDP m/m data is scheduled for November 10, 2023, at 07:00 AM GMT.

The GDP m/m forecast points to a minor decrease, with expectations at 0.1%, down from the previous figure of 0.2%.

Last time, the UK GDP m/m was announced on the 12th of October, 2023. You may find the market reaction graph (GBPJPY M1) below:

USD - Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment​

Financial confidence acts as a leading predictor of consumer spending, which is a pivotal force influencing broader economic activity.

In October 2023, the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index for the US was revised slightly higher to 63.8 from a preliminary reading of 63. However, this figure marked a notable decline from the previous month's 68.1, reaching the lowest level since May. The sub-index measuring consumer expectations also saw a significant drop of 9.9% to 59.3, primarily due to growing concerns about business conditions and personal financial situations. To a lesser extent, the decline was attributed to the impact of negative current events both domestically and internationally. Meanwhile, the sub-index measuring current economic conditions showed a slight decrease of 0.7% to 70.6.

TL;DR

The upcoming release of the Preliminary University of Michigan (UoM) Consumer Sentiment Report is scheduled for November 10, 2023, at 3:00 PM GMT.

The Preliminary UoM Consumer Sentiment forecast suggests a marginal uptick to 65, up from the previous reading of 63.8.

Last time, the US Preliminary UoM Consumer Sentiment Report was announced on the 13th of October, 2023. You may find the market reaction graph (EURUSD M1) below:

---

Disclaimer: The market news provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as trading advice.

 

[Daniel LQDFX]

Daily News Update​

​

14 November 2023​

Tuesday​

On Tuesday, November 14th, 2023, the United Kingdom is scheduled to release its Claimant Count Change data, while the United States will unveil its Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures.​

GBP - Claimant Count Change​

Unemployment data holds significance as it serves as a vital predictor of overall economic health, despite being a lagging indicator. Labor market conditions have a strong correlation with consumer spending, and unemployment plays a crucial role in shaping a country’s monetary policy.

In September 2023, the United Kingdom recorded an increase in the Claimant Count Change, with a rise of 20.40 thousand, compared to a decrease of 9 thousand in August. This data, which tracks changes in unemployment, has historically averaged 1.63 thousand from 1971 to 2023. It reached its highest point at 860.40 thousand in April 2020 and hit a record low of -169.20 thousand in June 2021.

The upcoming release of the Claimant Count Change is scheduled for Tuesday, November 14th, 2023, at 7:00 AM GMT.

The projected forecast for the Claimant Count Change suggests a rise to 25.0 thousand from the previous figure of 20.4 thousand.

The last time, UK Claimant Count Change was announced on the 24th of October, 2023. You may find the market reaction graph (GBPJPY M1) below:

USD - Core CPI m/m​

Core CPI assumes a crucial role in assessing fundamental inflation patterns by eliminating the influence of volatile food and energy prices, given that consumer prices make up the majority of the broader inflation measure. Consequently, this factor has a substantial effect on currency valuation, as central banks adjust interest rates in line with their mandate to control inflation when prices rise.

Excluding food and energy, the index showed a 0.3% rise, mirroring the increase seen in August. This increase can be attributed to several contributing factors, such as rent, owners' equivalent rent, expenses related to lodging away from home, motor vehicle insurance, recreation, personal care, and new vehicles. However, there were decreases in the prices of used cars and trucks, as well as in the apparel sector over the month. Looking at the past year, the all items index experienced a 3.7% increase, while the all items index, excluding food and energy, witnessed a 4.1% rise. During this period, the energy index declined by 0.5%, while the food index showed a 3.7% increase.

TL;DR

The forecast for Core CPI m/m indicates stability, showing no change with a projected rate of 0.3%.

USD - CPI m/m​

Consumer prices are the primary driver of overall inflation, and the impact of inflation on currency valuation is closely tied to central banks' actions. When prices begin to rise, central banks may respond by increasing interest rates as part of their mandate to control inflation.

According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) inched up by 0.4% in September, marking a slight deceleration from the 0.6% increase seen in August.

The forecast for CPI m/m suggests a decline from 0.4% to 0.1%.

USD - CPI y/y​

Consumer prices, serving as the primary driver of overall inflation, hold a crucial role in currency valuation. Central banks respond to price increases by raising interest rates, aligning with their mandate to control inflation.

Over the past 12 months, the overall index saw a 3.7% increase. The main contributors to the monthly increase were the shelter index, with a significant impact, and a rise in the gasoline index. Energy-related indexes showed mixed results, but the energy index went up by 1.5% in September

The upcoming release of Core CPI m/m, CPI m/m, and CPI y/y data is scheduled for Tuesday, November 14th, at 1:30 PM GMT.

The forecast for the CPI y/y indicates a marginal rise to 3.8%.

The last time, US Core CPI m/m, CPI m/m, and CPI y/y were announced on the 12th of October, 2023. You may find the market reaction graph (USDJPY M1) below:

---

Disclaimer: The market news provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as trading advice.

 

[Daniel LQDFX]

Daily News Update​

​

20 November 2023​

Monday​

On Monday, November 20, 2023, a significant day in financial communications is marked by scheduled speeches from both BOE Governor Bailey and RBA Governor Bullock.​

GBP – BOE Gov Bailey Speech​

Holding the position of central bank head, with control over short-term interest rates, he wields unparalleled influence over the nation's currency value, leading traders to keenly analyze his public statements for hints about future monetary policy directions.

The scheduled address by BOE Governor Bailey is set for Monday, November 20, 2023, at 6:45 PM GMT.

The last time, BOE Governor Bailey spoke on the 8th of November, 2023. You may find the market reaction graph (EURGBP M5) below:

AUD - RBA Gov Bullock Speaks​

As the central bank's head, wielding control over short-term interest rates, she holds a pivotal role in influencing the nation's currency value, making her public appearances highly scrutinized by traders for potential hints on future monetary policy.

The speech by RBA Governor Bullock is set to occur on Monday, November 20, 2023, at 11:00 PM GMT.

The last time, RBA Governor Bullock spoke on the 25th of October, 2023. You may find the market reaction graph (AUDJPY M5) below:

---

Disclaimer: The market news provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as trading advice.

 

[Daniel LQDFX]

Daily News Update​

​

21 November 2023​

Tuesday​

Tuesday, November 21, 2023, is poised to be a pivotal day for financial markets with multiple key announcements scheduled. Australia will release the Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes, shedding light on its economic strategy. In parallel, Canada is set to announce its Consumer Price Index (CPI), a critical measure of inflation. Additionally, the United States will disclose the Minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, offering insights into its monetary policy decisions.​

AUD - Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes​

For traders, the detailed account of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Board's most recent meeting is invaluable, as it provides comprehensive insights into the economic considerations that guided their decisions on interest rate levels.

The upcoming Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes on November 21, 2023, are anticipated to cover a range of topics, including an analysis of the Australian economy's current state, with a focus on inflation and growth prospects, risks and challenges, and an evaluation of the effectiveness of the RBA's monetary policies. The minutes are expected to shed light on the impact of recent interest rate hikes, the outlook for inflation, and potential further policy tightening, while also addressing the RBA's approach to global economic uncertainties, such as the war in Ukraine and rising living costs. As these minutes provide insights rather than definite policy commitments, they are keenly awaited by investors and businesses for indications of potential future interest rate adjustments by the RBA.

The upcoming Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes are scheduled for November 21, 2023, at 12:30 AM GMT.

The last time, the Australian Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes was announced on the 17th of October, 2023. You may find the market reaction graph (AUDNZD M5) below:

CAD – CPI m/m​

Inflation, primarily driven by consumer prices, plays a significant role in currency valuation, as escalating prices compel central banks to increase interest rates in adherence to their mandate of inflation containment.

In September 2023, Canada's Consumer Price Index saw a 0.10% decline from the previous month, deviating from the historical average of 0.29% observed since 1950. Notably, the index reached its peak at 2.60% in January 1991 and hit a record low of -1.30% in June 1959.

The upcoming CPI m/m forecast anticipates a modest rise to 0.2%, rebounding from the previous figure of -0.1%, suggesting a potential shift in economic momentum.

The last time, Canadian CPI m/m was announced on 17th of October, 2023. You may see the market reaction graph (CADJPY M5) below:

CAD - Median CPI y/y​

In the realm of economic trends, consumer prices form a substantial portion of overall inflation, a factor that significantly influences currency valuation. This is primarily because when prices rise, central banks are often prompted to hike interest rates, a strategic move aimed at fulfilling their commitment to controlling inflation.

In a recent update, September 2023 saw Canada's Consumer Price Index (CPI) Median climb by 3.8% year-on-year, marking a modest slowdown from the 4.1% increase recorded in August and falling below the market expectation of a 4% rise. The CPI Median, a key indicator for evaluating core inflation trends, indicates a slight easing in the rate of price growth, hinting at a moderation in inflationary pressures.

The latest forecast for the CPI y/y Median suggests a slight decrease to 3.5% from the previous announcement of 3.8%, signaling a moderate easing in inflation trends.

CAD - Trimmed CPI y/y​

Consumer prices constitute a major portion of total inflation, which is a critical factor in determining the value of a currency, as increasing prices typically prompt central banks to elevate interest rates in line with their commitment to controlling inflation.

In September 2023, Canada's Trimmed-Mean Consumer Price Index experienced a year-over-year increase of 3.7%, slightly down from the 3.9% rise in August and marginally below the market forecast of 3.8%.

The projected forecast for the CPI Trimmed-y/y basis shows a decline to 3.4%, down from the previous result of 3.7%, indicating a subtle but notable shift in inflation dynamics.

The upcoming release of the CPI m/m, Median CPI y/y, and Consumer Price Index (CPI) is scheduled for Tuesday, November 21, 2023, at 1:30 PM GMT.

USD - FOMC Meeting Minutes​

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Meeting Minutes provide an in-depth record of the committee's latest meeting, detailing the economic and financial considerations that influence their interest rate decisions. These essential documents, produced eight times a year, encapsulate the FOMC's discussions on various topics including the present and anticipated future condition of the U.S. economy, potential risks, and their planned approaches to monetary policy.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is set to convene on November 21, 2023, with the meeting minutes expected to address several key issues affecting the US economy. Top on the agenda will be the current economic status, including inflation trends and growth prospects, and the challenges and risks the economy faces. The effectiveness of the FOMC's current monetary policy settings and the potential for further interest rate increases will be critically assessed. Particular focus will be on the impact of recent rate hikes, the progress towards the 2% inflation target, and considerations for additional policy tightening amidst recession risks. Global economic uncertainties, such as the war in Ukraine and rising living costs, will also be discussed. Additionally, the minutes will delve into the FOMC's stance on its balance sheet reduction process, the financial implications of cryptocurrencies, and future policy communication strategies. While the minutes provide insight into the FOMC's perspectives and decision-making process, they do not indicate a definitive commitment to future policy actions. Investors and business leaders will scrutinize these minutes for indications of possible interest rate movements, making them a crucial tool for understanding the FOMC's economic assessment and anticipated policy directions.

TL;DR

• The FOMC meeting on November 21, 2023, will focus on the US economy, including inflation, growth, and risks.
  
• Evaluation of current monetary policies and the likelihood of further interest rate increases.
  
• Discussion on global economic challenges, such as the war in Ukraine and rising living costs.
  
• Consideration of the FOMC's balance sheet reduction and the role of cryptocurrencies.
  
• The minutes are crucial for understanding potential interest rate movements and the FOMC's policy direction.
  

The upcoming Federal Open Market Committee Meeting Minutes are scheduled for Tuesday, November 21, 2023, at 7:00 PM GMT.

---

Disclaimer: The market news provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as trading advice.