Daily Analysis Forex Mix

[radex78]

USD/CHF tends to show a neutral-to-bullish bias

This safe-haven currency pair is displaying interesting price dynamics, with the US dollar showing measured strength amidst the Swiss Franc's stability. USD/CHF is currently trading around the 0.81436 level on the FXOpen chart, having posted higher highs over the past four days.

Intraday price action for USD/CHF leans neutral to slightly bullish; however, the pair faces strong resistance in the 0.81450–0.81200 zone. It remains above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages (MA50 and MA200), indicating that the short-term technical outlook has not yet turned bearish.

USD fundamentals appear positive, driven by the divergence in policy expectations between the Federal Reserve and the Swiss National Bank (SNB). Expectations of relatively higher US interest rates are providing support to the USD. While earlier weakness in US labor data had raised expectations for Fed rate cuts and pressured USD/CHF, the market is now closely monitoring economic releases—such as the Consumer Price Index and jobless claims—for subtle clues regarding the Fed's future interest rate policy.

Swiss inflation fell to 0.4% year-on-year in July, reducing the likelihood of an SNB rate hike; this development tends to be negative for the CHF. Nevertheless, the CHF retains its appeal as a safe-haven currency. Should geopolitical tensions escalate or stock markets face significant pressure, capital inflows into the CHF could once again weigh on USD/CHF. Conversely, when market anxiety subsides, USD/CHF tends to rise, whereas heightened geopolitical tension typically provides a safe-haven boost to the CHF.

Key factors drawing trader attention include US economic data releases, interest rate expectations for the Fed and SNB, and global risk sentiment.

Technically, USD/CHF remains above the MA50, reflecting a bullish trend. The projected daily trading range for USD/CHF is 0.81000–0.81800. Immediate support lies around 0.81200, with the next target at 0.81000. The nearest resistance is around 0.81500, with the next target in the 0.81750 range. This forecast could be wrong.

USDCHF D1

On the daily timeframe, USDCHF is currently positioned above the middle band line. The Bollinger Bands form a flat channel with wide band spacing, indicating range-bound movement and moderate volatility.

The MA50, situated above the lower band, forms an upward-sloping channel; the price trading above this line indicates an uptrend. The MA200 lies well below the lower band, forming a flat channel that indicates sideways movement over the longer term.

The TDI indicator's VB High reads 66, and the VB Low reads 45. The 21-point spread reflects the volatility level on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line reads 58 with a flat trajectory, implying that bullish sentiment outweighs bearish sentiment.

The RSI Price Line reads 55 with an upward slope, indicating an uptrend.

The Trade Signal Line reads 53 with an upward slope, indicating an uptrend.

USDCHF H4

On the H4 timeframe, USDCHF is positioned below the upper band. The Bollinger Bands form an upward-sloping channel with slightly narrowing band spacing, indicating bullish sentiment alongside somewhat fading volatility.

The MA50, located between the lower and middle bands, forms a slightly upward-sloping channel; the price trading well above this line indicates an uptrend. The MA200 sits just below the MA50, forming a flat channel that indicates sideways movement over the longer term.

The TDI indicator's VB High reads 63, and the VB Low reads 44. The 19-point spread reflects the volatility level on the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base Line reads 53 with an upward slope, implying that bullish sentiment outweighs bearish sentiment.

The RSI Price Line reads 58 with a channel that is sloping upward but flattening, indicating a weak uptrend.

The Trade Signal Line reads 57 with a flat trajectory, indicating sideways movement.

 

[radex78]

USD/JPY is consolidating with a limited bullish bias.

USD/JPY is currently hovering around the 159.000 level. The pair had previously plunged from the 164.000 range to a low near 155.000 following Japanese intervention, but it has since rebounded toward 159.000 due to the persistent, wide yield gap between the US and Japan. The price currently stands at approximately 159.212 on the FXOpen chart.

US Treasury yields remain significantly higher than Japanese yields, keeping the carry trade attractive. USD/JPY has proven relatively resilient despite weaker US data and declining expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike at the September meeting.

Markets are increasingly anticipating a Bank of Japan (BoJ) rate hike in September. Reuters reports that the probability of a 25-basis-point hike has risen to 76%, up from just 24% on July 30. Japan has renewed grounds to curb yen depreciation as USD/JPY approaches the 160.000 level; a former senior Japanese official has even warned that further intervention could occur at any time should the yen weaken significantly again.

Recent US data—including payrolls, inflation, and retail sales—show relative weakness, dampening expectations for a rate hike at the September meeting. BBH estimates the probability of a 25-basis-point hike at only around 30%. July retail sales fell by 0.6%—worse than expected—thereby increasing pressure on the USD.

However, the release of the FOMC minutes this Wednesday (August 19) is a crucial event. Three FOMC members had previously favored a rate hike, so the minutes could deliver a hawkish surprise.

Japanese GDP data is a major focus this week. Markets anticipate faster second-quarter growth, while Japanese inflation and trade data will also provide key signals for the BoJ. For Monday, the USD/JPY price is expected to trade within a reasonable range of approximately 158.30 to 160.000. This forecast could be wrong.

USDJPY D1

The price is currently moving between the lower and middle Bollinger Bands. The Bollinger Bands form a descending channel with wide band spacing, indicating bearish sentiment and high volatility.

The 50-period moving average above the middle band forms a flat channel; the fact that the price is well below this line indicates bearish sentiment. The 200-period moving average above the lower band forms an ascending channel, indicating bullish sentiment over the longer term.

The TDI indicator's VB High reads 76, while the VB Low reads 27. The 49-point difference reflects the volatility level on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line reads 51 and shows a descending channel, implying that bearish weight outweighs bullish weight, suggesting potential downward movement.

The RSI Price Line reads 43 and shows an ascending channel, indicating an upward trend.

The Trade Signal Line reads 41 and shows an ascending channel, indicating an upward trend.

USDJPY H4

USDJPY movement on the H4 timeframe tends to be within a Bollinger Band squeeze, reflecting consolidation within a narrow range.

The 50-period moving average below the lower band forms a horizontal channel; the price being above this line indicates a tendency toward bullish sentiment. The 200-period moving average above the upper band forms a flat channel, indicating sideways movement over the longer term.

The TDI indicator's VB High reads 67, while the VB Low reads 44. The 23-point difference reflects the volatility level on the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base Line reads 55 and shows a flat channel, implying that bullish weight outweighs bearish weight.

The RSI Price Line reads 51 and shows a slight descending channel, indicating a weak downward trend.

The Trade Signal Line reads 52 and shows a slight descending channel, indicating a weak downward trend.

 

[radex78]

GBP/JPY: Neutral-to-bullish outlook, but prone to correction

The GBP/JPY cross-rate is displaying price dynamics with a neutral-to-bullish bias. Yesterday, the pair formed a bullish candle, crossing above the middle band. According to FXOpen charts, the price recorded a high of approximately 216.155, a low of 215.402, and closed at 215.963.

The sharp rise over the past two days leaves the pair vulnerable to a profit-taking-driven correction. The Bank of England (BoE) maintained interest rates at 3.75%. Internal voting results revealed a leaning toward a hawkish stance, with six members voting to hold rates and three favoring a hike. Although UK inflation had eased to 2.6%, concerns regarding energy inflation and geopolitical tensions have led the market to anticipate a delay in BoE rate cuts, thereby supporting the Pound's yield appeal.

Labor market data released today presented an interesting picture: the unemployment rate stood at 4.9%—matching expectations but rising from the previous 4.8%—while average earnings grew by 4.3%, exceeding the forecast of 4.1%. Persistent wage strength suggests that inflationary pressures in the UK have not yet fully dissipated. If tomorrow's inflation data comes in hot, it could further fuel expectations of a more hawkish BoE, potentially boosting the GBP.

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) held interest rates at 1.00%, the highest level since 1995. Markets currently anticipate the next hike to occur at the September or October meeting. As an energy importer, Japan has been hit hard by oil price fluctuations. Although the BoJ is on a path toward policy normalization, the interest rate differential with the BoE remains significant, sustaining the appeal of carry trade strategies that weigh on the Yen.

Japanese financial authorities remain vigilant against excessive Yen depreciation. Fears of potential sudden currency intervention are capping GBP/JPY gains, preventing the pair from rallying too aggressively.

Moving forward, traders will closely monitor carry-trade sentiment and risk-off dynamics. If global markets lean towards a "risk-on" sentiment, market participants are likely to capitalize on interest rate differentials to resume buying GBP/JPY. Traders should also closely monitor bond yields, energy prices, rhetoric from Bank of Japan (BoJ) officials, and rumors regarding intervention.

From a technical perspective, GBPJPY is currently trading above the 50-day moving average (MA50) with a bullish bias, though it remains vulnerable to a correction. The pair is expected to trade within a range of approximately 212.00–216.80. This forecast could be wrong.

GBPJPY D1

The current price is above the middle band. The Bollinger Bands form a downward-sloping channel with wide band spacing, indicating bearish sentiment and high volatility.

The MA50, located near the middle band, forms a flat channel; the price sitting slightly above the line indicates a transition to a bullish trend. The MA200, positioned above the lower band, forms an upward-sloping channel, indicating bullish sentiment over the longer term.

The TDI indicator's VB High reads 72, and the VB Low reads 35. The 37-point difference reflects the volatility level on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line reads 53 with a flat channel, meaning bullish weight exceeds bearish weight.

The RSI Price Line reads 53 with an upward-sloping channel, indicating an uptrend.

The Trade Signal Line reads 51 with an upward-sloping channel, indicating an uptrend.

GBPJPY H4

The current GBPJPY price is below the upper band. The Bollinger Bands form an upward-sloping channel with slightly widening spacing, indicating weak bullish sentiment and a slight increase in volatility.

The MA50, located below the lower band, forms an upward-sloping channel; the price sitting above the line indicates an uptrend. The MA200, positioned just above the upper band, forms a flat channel, indicating sideways movement over the longer term.

The TDI indicator's VB High reads 73, and the VB Low reads 58. The 15-point difference reflects the volatility level on the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base Line reads 66 with an upward-sloping channel, meaning bullish weight exceeds bearish weight.

The RSI Price Line reads 65 with a channel curving downward, indicating a downtrend.

The Trade Signal Line reads 66 with a flat channel, indicating sideways movement.

 

[radex78]

USD/CAD rebounds from two-month low

The USD/CAD pair has exhibited two-way movement amidst high volatility. USD/CAD briefly touched a two-month low of 1.38446 and has since rebounded to the 1.39100 range, though it remains below the 50-day EMA. The real-time price on the FXOpen chart stands at 1.38906, with significant upside risk as today marks the deadline for US tariffs on Canada.

Canadian inflation has strengthened but not enough to compel the Bank of Canada (BoC) to raise interest rates. July CPI rose to 3.0% year-on-year (YoY) from 2.0%, while median core inflation hovered around 2%. The rise in the headline figure was primarily driven by gasoline prices, which surged 25.7% YoY. The BoC has maintained its interest rate at 2.25%, meaning the US retains the interest rate advantage.

The US dollar itself is facing pressure; relatively softer US data has led the market to scale back expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike in September. Markets now estimate a roughly 70% probability that the Fed will not raise rates in September. However, today's FOMC minutes pose a major risk for USD/CAD, as they may offer clues on whether Fed members remain committed to a tighter policy stance.

The most significant factor today is the issue of US-Canada tariffs. The US has threatened to impose a 50% tariff on approximately US$20 billion worth of Canadian goods starting August 19. Negotiations are ongoing, with Trump and Carney even holding talks ahead of the deadline. If the tariffs are implemented, the CAD could weaken, likely driving USD/CAD higher. Conversely, if an agreement is reached or a delay is secured, the CAD could strengthen, potentially causing a sharp drop in USD/CAD.

The CAD is highly sensitive to oil prices, given Canada's status as an oil exporter; sustained high oil prices support the currency. With WTI crude remaining above the $80 level in recent reports, this serves as a factor limiting the rise of USD/CAD.

From a technical perspective, USD/CAD remains below the 50-day EMA, indicating that bearish sentiment continues to dominate. The estimated fair price range for USDCAD today is 1.38600–1.40500. Immediate support is around 1.3870, with the next target in the 1.38000 range. Immediate resistance is around 1.39500, and the next resistance level is around 1.40500. This forecast could be wrong.

USDCAD D1

On the daily timeframe, USDCAD is positioned above the lower band. The Bollinger Bands form a descending channel with wide band spacing, indicating bearish sentiment and high volatility.

The MA50 sits above the middle band, forming a gently sloping ascending channel; however, the price is well below the line, indicating a downtrend. The MA200 lies just below the lower band, forming a flat channel, which indicates sideways movement over the longer term.

The TDI indicator's VB High reads 65, and the VB Low reads 26; the 39-point difference reflects the daily volatility.

The Market Base Line reads 45 with a descending channel, implying that bearish weight outweighs bullish weight.

The RSI Price Line reads 34 with a channel curving upward, indicating an uptrend.

The Trade Signal Line reads 32 with a gently sloping descending channel, indicating a fading downtrend.

USDCAD H4

On the 4-hour timeframe, USDCAD is positioned above the middle band. The Bollinger Bands form a descending channel with narrowing band spacing, indicating bearish sentiment accompanied by decreasing volatility.

The MA50 sits just below the upper band, forming a descending channel; the price is below the line, indicating a downtrend. The MA200 lies well above the upper band, forming a descending channel, which indicates bearish sentiment over the longer term.

The TDI indicator's VB High reads 50, and the VB Low reads 22; the 28-point difference reflects the volatility for the 4-hour timeframe.

The Market Base Line reads 36 with an ascending channel, implying that bearish weight outweighs bullish weight, yet there is potential for an upward move.

The RSI Price Line reads 50 with a gently sloping ascending channel, indicating a fading uptrend.

The Trade Signal Line reads 43 with an ascending channel, indicating an uptrend.

 

[radex78]

Gold prices rose due to a combination of a weakening USD and falling US Treasury yields.

Yesterday's gold price movement demonstrated strong bullish sentiment driven by the combination of a weaker USD and declining US Treasury yields. Gold prices surged approximately 2%, moving from a low of around $4,324 to a high of $4,521, forming a long-bodied bullish candle with virtually no wicks. Currently, the price sits at the $4,521 level on the FXOpen chart, right at the MA200 line.

The primary driver of yesterday's rally was the US Treasury's announcement that it would increase buybacks of long-term bonds. This move pushed Treasury yields down and weakened the USD—two conditions that are typically highly favorable for gold. However, a key dynamic has drawn attention: the released FOMC minutes revealed that several Fed officials are increasingly supportive of raising interest rates if inflation remains high. Three members even dissented, favoring a 25-basis-point hike at the July meeting.

The market continues to monitor the FOMC minutes and awaits clarity on the US central bank's monetary policy direction ahead of the Jackson Hole economic symposium. Expectations regarding interest rate cuts could catalyze a surprise shift in price direction.

Ongoing geopolitical tensions and the unresolved conflict surrounding energy routes in the Strait of Hormuz continue to bolster gold's status as a premier safe-haven asset.

Today, traders are focusing on US Initial Jobless Claims and other US economic data. Thursday, August 20, marks a significant date on the US economic calendar, with market attention centered on Jobless Claims and the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index. If labor market data comes in weaker than expected, the USD is likely to fall, creating a bullish scenario for XAU. Conversely, strong US data could heighten expectations of a hawkish Fed, potentially triggering a correction in gold prices. US Treasury yields are also crucial; a decline in yields has been a primary driver behind the recent surge in gold prices.

Traders are also closely watching the performance of the US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the USD against six major currencies. If the DXY declines further, gold has the potential to hold the $4,500 level. However, traders cannot ignore the FOMC minutes; although gold has risen due to falling yields, the prospect of interest rate hikes remains a risk for the metal.

Technically, XAUUSD is positioned at the MA200 line, which currently acts as dynamic resistance; a breakout above this level could trigger a further rise in gold prices. Gold is expected to trade within the $4,300–$4,575 range. Immediate support lies around $4,460, with the next target at $4,400. Immediate resistance is around $4,550, with the next target at $4,575. This forecast could be wrong.

XAUUSD D1

Daily XAUUSD movement is currently near the upper band. The Bollinger Bands show an upward slope and widening spacing, indicating bullish sentiment and increased volatility.

MA50 sits below the middle band with a gentle upward slope; the price is well above this line, indicating an uptrend. MA200 is near the upper band with a flat slope, indicating sideways movement over the longer term.

The TDI indicator's VB High reads 67, and VB Low reads 34; the 33-point spread reflects the daily volatility level.

The Market Base Line reads 51 with an upward slope, meaning bullish weight exceeds bearish weight.

The RSI Price Line reads 63 with a flat slope, indicating sideways movement.

The Trade Signal Line reads 65 with a slight upward slope, indicating an uptrend.

XAUUSD H4

The four-hour XAUUSD movement is above the upper band. The Bollinger Bands appear to be expanding, indicating a significant increase in volatility.

The MA50 is below the middle band with an upward slope; the price is well above the line, indicating a strong uptrend. The MA200 is far below the lower band with a slight upward slope, indicating bullish sentiment over the longer term.

The TDI indicator's VB High reads 69, and VB Low reads 41; the 28-point spread reflects the volatility level on the four-hour timeframe.

The Market Base Line reads 55 with a flat slope, meaning bullish weight exceeds bearish weight.

The RSI Price Line reads 70 with a sharp upward slope, indicating a strong uptrend within the overbought zone.

The Trade Signal Line reads 53 with an upward slope, indicating an uptrend.

 

[radex78]

GBP/USD maintains a bullish bias, though a correction risk exists

The GBP/USD major currency pair has exhibited a mild bullish bias over the past two days. Prices formed bullish candles on two consecutive days, reaching a high of 1.36594—the highest level since May 2016. Currently, the price hovers around 1.36241 on the FXOpen chart, trading near the rising upper band.

While GBP/USD generally maintains a bullish bias, the price level is quite high, increasing the risk of an intraday correction. Consequently, some traders are opting for a "buy-the-dip" strategy to mitigate risk.

Fundamental factors influencing the GBP include UK inflation, which remained elevated in July; it rose to 2.9% year-on-year—up from 2.6%—aligning with forecasts but exceeding the Bank of England's (BoE) 2.8% projection. This sustains expectations that the BoE could still raise interest rates.

The UK economy remains robust; June GDP grew by 0.3%—surpassing forecasts—and reinforced the perception of economic resilience. However, the labor market is beginning to cool, suggesting the BoE is unlikely to rush into raising interest rates.

Fundamental factors affecting the USD are also crucial for GBP/USD right now. The Federal Reserve continues to grapple with high inflation, yet data on employment and economic activity are showing signs of weakness. Recent FOMC minutes indicate that some officials still favor rate hikes, though the market remains unconvinced that a September increase will occur.

A key driver is the US Treasury's policy of repurchasing long-term bonds. This policy exerts downward pressure on long-term bond yields and, by extension, the USD. This has been a primary catalyst for the GBP/USD surge to 1.36594.

Traders will next focus on comments from Fed officials at the Jackson Hole symposium, as any shifts in stance could alter US interest rate expectations. Movements in US Treasury yields are also critical, as rising yields tend to strengthen the USD. Expectations regarding BoE rate hikes could further drive GBP volatility. Additionally, oil prices and Middle East tensions remain factors to watch, as rising energy costs could keep inflation elevated in both the UK and the US.

The projected range for GBP/USD today is 1.35800–1.37100. Immediate support is around 1.36300, with the next target in the 1.36000 range. Immediate resistance is around 1.36700, with the next target in the 1.37350 range. This forecast could be wrong.

GBP/USD D1

Daily GBP/USD movement is near the upper band. The Bollinger Bands form an upward channel with wide band spacing, indicating bullish sentiment and high volatility.

The MA50 below the middle band shows a slight upward slope; the price is well above this line, indicating an uptrend. The MA200 above the MA50 also shows a slight upward slope, indicating bullish sentiment over the longer term.

The TDI indicator's VB High reads 69, and the VB Low reads 44; the 25-point spread reflects the daily volatility level.

The Market Base Line reads 57 with an upward slope, meaning bullish weight exceeds bearish weight.

The RSI Price Line reads 70 with an upward slope, indicating the uptrend is in the overbought zone.

The Trade Signal Line reads 63 with an upward slope, indicating an uptrend.

GBP/USD H4

On the H4 timeframe, the price is below the upper band. The Bollinger Bands form an upward channel with expanding band spacing, indicating bullish sentiment and rising volatility.

The MA50 below the middle band shows an upward slope; the price is well above this line, indicating an uptrend. The MA200 below the lower band shows an upward slope, indicating bullish sentiment over the longer term.

The TDI indicator's VB High reads 75, and the VB Low reads 47; the 28-point spread reflects volatility on the four-hour timeframe.

The Market Base Line reads 61 with an upward slope, meaning bullish weight exceeds bearish weight.

The RSI Price Line reads 69 with a shallow upward slope, indicating the uptrend is fading near the overbought zone.

The Trade Signal Line reads 71 with a flat slope, indicating a tendency for sideways price movement.

 

[radex78]

XTI/USD is caught in a tug-of-war between geopolitical risk premiums and pressure from global inventory accumulation.

Price action at the end of the week revealed a tug-of-war dynamic near a contracting upper band. Prices reflected market indecision, forming a small bullish candle with short upper and lower wicks. On the FXOpen chart, the price reached a high of 87.20, a low of 85.53, and closed at 86.39.

Today's oil trading is expected to be dominated by a strong tug-of-war between geopolitical risk premiums and pressure from global inventory accumulation. Two major forces drive the fundamental dynamics of XTI/USD.

Factors supporting bullish sentiment: Geopolitical escalation and the Strait of Hormuz remain crucial points for oil. The ongoing heated Iran-US conflict and new economic concerns have heightened fears regarding distribution route disruptions. Restrictions and the potential closure of maritime traffic in the Strait of Hormuz are adding a significant risk premium to energy prices. Obstacles forcing tanker rerouting are increasing logistics costs and tightening actual physical supply in the global market.

Factors supporting bearish sentiment: A surge in US inventories. US inventory data indicates a substantial buildup. The International Energy Agency (IEA) has revised down its global oil demand growth forecast due to slowing global manufacturing activity. The latest EIA data shows US crude inventories rose by 4.4 million barrels to 428.8 million barrels for the week ending August 14. However, there is a bullish element: US refineries are operating at very high levels—around 92.2% of capacity—while distillate stocks have fallen and remain approximately 13% below the five-year average.

Key factors for traders to watch next include news on the US-Iran conflict, market structure (the spread between spot and futures prices), US economic data, and the direction of the USD.

Technically, XTI/USD is currently positioned near the upper band, which serves as a technical peak. The price is expected to range between $80.00 and $90.00. Immediate support is around $83.00, with the next target near $81.00. Immediate resistance is around $87.00, with the next target near $88.15. This forecast could be wrong.

XTIUSD D1

Daily US crude oil price movements are situated between the middle and upper Bollinger Bands. The bands are beginning to contract, indicating a decrease in volatility.

The MA50, positioned between the middle and lower bands, traces a gently sloping downward channel; however, the price remains above this line, signaling a potential trend transition. The MA200 lies below the MA50 and traces a slight upward channel, indicating weak bullish sentiment over the longer term.

The TDI indicator's VB High reads 67, while the VB Low reads 40; the 27-point spread reflects the volatility level on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line stands at 53 with an upward channel, indicating that bullish weight outweighs bearish weight.

The RSI Price Line reads 60 with an upward channel, signaling an uptrend.

The Trade Signal Line reads 56 with an upward channel, signaling an uptrend.

XTIUSD H4

On the H4 timeframe, WTI price action is hovering near the upper Bollinger Band. The bands form an upward channel with relatively narrow spacing, indicating bullish sentiment accompanied by somewhat low volatility.

The MA50, located near the lower band, traces an upward channel with the price above the line, signaling bullish sentiment. The MA200 sits well below the lower band, tracing a slight upward channel and indicating bullish sentiment over the longer term.

The TDI indicator's VB High reads 69, while the VB Low reads 52; the 17-point spread reflects the volatility level on the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base Line stands at 60 with an upward channel, indicating that bullish weight outweighs bearish weight.

The RSI Price Line reads 63 with a flat channel, indicating sideways movement.

The Trade Signal Line reads 63 with a flat channel, indicating sideways movement.

 

[radex78]

Gold turns bullish but enters zone prone to profit-taking

Gold prices have shown a bullish trend, staging a strong rally over the past few days. On August 24, spot gold briefly touched approximately $4,680 and closed around $4,649 on the FXOpen chart, while December futures settled near $4,697. Gold prices have broken above the 200-day moving average.

Notably, gold ETFs recorded inflows of approximately 46.7 tonnes—or $6.4 billion—marking the largest increase in ten months. This indicates that the rise is driven not merely by short-term speculation but is also supported by investment funds.

A weakening US dollar, resulting from the US Treasury's long-term bond buyback policy, has suppressed yields and created room for gold to rise. The Federal Reserve's interest rates remain steady at 3.50%–3.75%.

Concerns regarding US fiscal health—specifically government debt surpassing $40 trillion—have reignited the "debasement trade," prompting investors to seek assets capable of preserving value, such as gold.

Recent reports indicate that central banks—particularly the People's Bank of China—continue to accumulate gold as part of efforts toward de-dollarization and the diversification of foreign exchange reserves.

The market is also sensitive to potential shifts in the Federal Reserve's interest rate trajectory. Should US economic data weaken or Fed commentary lean dovish, US dollar yields could fall, thereby supporting gold prices.

Ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, combined with oil price fluctuations, ensure that safe-haven assets remain attractive to institutional investors.

Traders are now anticipating data releases scheduled for today and the coming week. Today’s releases include weekly labor market data (ADP) and the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index. Key catalysts for the week include the Core PCE Price Index—the Fed's preferred inflation gauge—and second-quarter US GDP data, due tomorrow, August 26.

From a technical standpoint, the rise in gold prices has pushed the asset into overbought territory according to the RSI. The projected price range for gold is estimated to be between $4,440 and $4,760. Immediate support is around $4,611, with the next target around $4,550. Immediate resistance is around $4,655, with the next target around $4,760. This forecast could be wrong.

XAUUSD D1

On the daily timeframe, the gold price is positioned near the upper band. The Bollinger Bands form an upward channel with widening bands, indicating bullish sentiment and high volatility.

The MA50, located below the middle band, traces an upward-leaning path; the price is well above this line, signaling an uptrend. The MA200, situated below the upper band, shows a slight upward slope, indicating bullish sentiment over the longer term.

The TDI indicator's VB High reads 72, and the VB Low reads 34. The 38-point difference reflects the daily volatility level.

The Market Base Line stands at 53 with an upward trajectory, meaning bullish weight exceeds bearish weight.

The RSI Price Line reads 72 with an upward slope, indicating an uptrend within the overbought zone.

The Trade Signal Line reads 67 with an upward slope, indicating an uptrend.

XAUUSD H4

On the H4 timeframe, the gold price is trading below the upper band. The Bollinger Bands form an upward channel with slightly narrowing bands, indicating bullish sentiment alongside somewhat easing volatility.

The MA50, positioned just above the lower band, traces an upward path; the price is well above this line, signaling an uptrend. The MA200, located well below the lower band, shows a slight upward slope, indicating bullish sentiment over the longer term.

The TDI indicator's VB High reads 82, and the VB Low reads 45. The 37-point difference reflects the volatility level on the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base Line stands at 63 with an upward trajectory, meaning bullish weight exceeds bearish weight.

The RSI Price Line reads 71 but is curving downward, indicating a price correction from the overbought zone.

The Trade Signal Line reads 74 with a flattening upward slope, indicating a fading uptrend.

 

[radex78]

AUD/USD shows a bullish bias, signaling "risk-on" market sentiment.

The AUD/USD commodity currency pair is exhibiting a bullish bias, having climbed from a low of 0.68655 on June 30 to a high around 0.71800 last week. Currently, the price sits near 0.71668 on the FXOpen chart, just below the upper band.

AUD/USD is currently driven by three key factors: the RBA's hawkish stance, the Federal Reserve's interest rate trajectory, and economic conditions in China—Australia's largest trading partner.

The RBA maintains a hawkish tone; meeting minutes reveal debates regarding potential further rate hikes, as Australian inflation remains above the 2%–3% target range. The benchmark interest rate currently stands at 4.35%. With inflation remaining elevated, the market has not entirely ruled out the possibility of additional rate hikes through late 2026.

Improving sentiment regarding China's economy, alongside economic stimulus measures, could bolster Australian exports—particularly commodities such as iron ore and coal.

However, downward pressures could push the AUD into bearish territory. US inflation data (PCE) and speeches by Federal Reserve officials remain the focus this week. If US inflation exceeds forecasts, the USD could strengthen on expectations of higher interest rates. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East may drive safe-haven demand for the USD, while a global economic slowdown and weakening commodity demand could also weigh on the AUD.

Traders are currently monitoring Australian CPI data, RBA rate hike expectations, US PCE data and Fed commentary, commodity price movements, Chinese economic data, and the performance of the US Dollar Index (DXY).

From a technical perspective, AUD/USD is trading above the 200-day moving average, with a trend leaning from neutral to mildly bullish today. The projected fair value range for AUD/USD is 0.70800–0.72000. Immediate support lies around 0.71200, with the next target level near 0.70900. The nearest resistance is around 0.71780, and the next target is around 0.72000. This forecast could be wrong.

AUDUSD D1

On the daily chart, AUDUSD price action is near the upper Bollinger band. The Bollinger Bands form an upward-sloping channel with wide band spacing, indicating bullish sentiment and high volatility.

The MA50, positioned below the middle band, traces a gently sloping downward channel; however, the price trading well above this line indicates an uptrend. The MA200, located near the lower band, traces an upward-sloping channel, signaling bullish sentiment over the longer term.

The TDI indicator's VB High reads 68, while the VB Low reads 44. The 24-point spread reflects the daily volatility of AUDUSD.

The Market Base Line stands at 56 with an upward-sloping channel, indicating that bullish weight outweighs bearish weight.

The RSI Price Line stands at 66 with an upward-sloping channel, indicating an uptrend.

The Trade Signal Line stands at 65 with an upward-sloping channel, indicating an uptrend.

AUDUSD H4

On the H4 timeframe, AUDUSD price action is above the middle Bollinger band. The Bollinger Bands form an upward-sloping channel with wide band spacing, indicating bullish sentiment and high volatility.

The MA50, positioned just above the lower band, traces an upward-sloping channel; the price trading above this line indicates an uptrend. The MA200, located well below the lower band, traces an upward-sloping channel, signaling bullish sentiment over the longer term.

The TDI indicator's VB High reads 72, while the VB Low reads 47. The 25-point spread reflects the H4 volatility level.

The Market Base Line stands at 60 with a flat channel, indicating that bullish weight outweighs bearish weight.

The RSI Price Line stands at 60 with a channel curving upward, indicating an uptrend.

The Trade Signal Line stands at 57 with a channel curving upward, indicating an uptrend.

 

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GBP/JPY outlook is neutral to bullish, but chasing highs requires caution.

The GBP/JPY cross—often nicknamed "The Beast"—is currently trading around 216.571, with a daily range of approximately 216.500–217.380. On the FXOpen chart, the price sits near 216.375, trading above the MA50.

GBP/JPY price dynamics are influenced by factors such as interest rates and global risk sentiment. The GBP continues to draw support from expectations of a relatively tight Bank of England (BoE) policy. Sterling recently traded near six-month highs against the USD, bolstered by solid UK data and persistent inflation concerns.

However, there are headwinds; UK retail sales fell 0.5% month-on-month in July, and the UK government recorded a budget deficit of approximately £1.8 billion—worse than anticipated. Fiscal pressures and high gilt yields pose risks to the GBP.

The BoE has maintained interest rates at 3.75%. Although some committee members have voiced support for a rate hike due to energy-driven inflation, UK macroeconomic uncertainty limits the scope for further GBP appreciation. A narrowing interest rate differential between the UK and Japan is gradually triggering a "carry trade" compression, which is slowly strengthening the JPY against the GBP.

Japanese inflation is picking up again. Headline inflation rose to approximately 1.9% in July, while underlying inflation indicators also increased. This has fueled speculation that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) could raise interest rates to 1.25% in September. A Reuters survey indicates that the majority of economists expect the BoJ to raise rates to 1.25% in September, with some anticipating further increases by late 2026.

Japan and the US have previously intervened to strengthen the Yen. According to Reuters, such interventions could mark a crucial turning point for the currency. Given that GBP/JPY is highly sensitive to JPY strength, the pair could react significantly if USD/JPY approaches extreme levels, or in response to verbal interventions by Japanese officials or hawkish statements from the BoJ. This could push GBPJPY lower.

Energy prices and geopolitical factors could significantly impact UK inflation and alter the Bank of England's (BoE) policy direction. Global market sentiment is also a key focus for traders; positive moves in global indices tend to drive GBPJPY higher, whereas sharp declines in stock markets can trigger a flight to the yen as a safe-haven asset.

From a technical perspective, GBPJPY is trading above its 200-day moving average. The projected price range for GBPJPY today is approximately 215.80–217.80. Immediate support lies at 216.10, with the next target at 215.90. Immediate resistance is around 217.30, with the next target near 217.80. This forecast could be wrong.

GBPJPY D1

On the daily timeframe, "The Beast" is moving between the middle and upper Bollinger Bands. The bands form a slight downward channel with a wide yet narrowing spread, indicating bearish sentiment and easing volatility.

The MA50 sits above the middle band, tracing a flat channel; the price remaining above this line indicates an uptrend. The MA200 is positioned above the lower band, tracing an upward channel that signals bullish sentiment over the longer term.

The TDI VB High indicator reads 69, while the VB Low reads 35; the 34-point spread reflects the volatility level on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line stands at 52 with a downward trajectory, implying that bullish weight outweighs bearish weight, alongside potential for a decline.

The RSI Price Line reads 57, with its channel curving downward, indicating a downtrend.

The Trade Signal Line reads 56, with an upward channel, indicating an uptrend.

GBPJPY H4

On the four-hour timeframe, GBPJPY is confined within a tight Bollinger Band squeeze, reflecting a market prone to consolidation and movement within a narrow range amidst low volatility.

The MA50 sits just below the lower band, tracing a shallow upward channel; the price remaining slightly below this line indicates a downtrend. The MA200 is positioned below the lower band, tracing a flat channel that signals sideways movement over the longer term.

The TDI VB High indicator reads 74, while the VB Low reads 43; the 31-point spread reflects the volatility level on the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base Line stands at 59 with a downward trajectory, implying that bullish weight outweighs bearish weight, alongside potential for a decline.

The RSI Price Line reads 41 with a downward channel, indicating a downtrend.

The Trade Signal Line reads 48 with a downward channel, indicating a downtrend.