Daily Analysis Forex Mix

[radex78]

Gold price falls back below $4,000

Gold prices dropped below the psychological $4,000 level on Thursday as tensions in the Middle East drove oil prices up by nearly 13% in July.

Gold fell to a low of $3,969 after a period of consolidation around $4,065. It currently trades at roughly $3,974 on FXOpen charts, with the potential for further declines.

Geopolitical tensions typically bolster safe-haven assets like gold. However, the current tensions in the Middle East have been overshadowed by a strengthening US dollar and rising US bond yields. Despite cooling US inflation, the energy price surge resulting from geopolitical tensions has sparked fears of a resurgence in inflation, leading markets to price in the possibility of another interest rate hike this year.

Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have triggered a domino effect via surging oil prices. US strikes on Iranian military targets and subsequent retaliatory actions have caused crude oil prices to spike due to supply concerns in the Strait of Hormuz. High energy costs have fueled fresh inflation worries, reinforcing speculation that the Federal Reserve might keep interest rates high for longer or even raise them in September. This environment dampens the appeal of gold, which offers no yield.

Analysts at Bank of America—previously among the most bullish, having predicted gold could reach $6,000—have recently revised their forecasts. Factors cited include persistently high Fed interest rates, a strengthening US dollar and rising bond yields, and weaker fund inflows into gold ETFs compared to earlier in the year.

BofA’s revised outlook places the average gold price at approximately $4,360. They also warned that gold could potentially drop to around $3,315 in a more pessimistic scenario. Nevertheless, BofA has not turned bearish on the long term; they maintain that the broader trend remains positive, as central bank buying, high global debt levels, and geopolitical risks continue to support prices.

From a technical standpoint, gold has just tested the lower boundary of its major consolidation pattern and is trading around the psychological $4,000 level. Gold prices are expected to range between approximately $3,951 and $4,157. Immediate support is around the $3,951 level, with the next target near $3,940. Immediate resistance is around $4,060, with the next target near $4,157. This forecast could be wrong.

XAUUSD D1

On the daily timeframe, the gold price is currently near the lower band. The Bollinger Bands depict a descending channel with narrowing bands, indicating bearish sentiment and subsiding volatility.

The 50-period moving average sits above the upper band with a downward slope; the price being well below this line indicates a downtrend. The moving average positioned above the upper band shows a rising slope, suggesting bullish sentiment over the longer term. A "dead cross" signal is present on this timeframe.

The TDI indicator's VB High reads 47, and the VB Low reads 29. The 18-point spread reflects the volatility level on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line reads 38 with a flat slope, implying that bearish weight outweighs bullish weight.

The RSI Price Line reads 39 with a downward slope, indicating a downtrend.

The Trade Signal Line reads 41 with a flat slope, indicating sideways movement.

XAUUSD H4

On the H4 timeframe, the gold price is currently near the lower band. The Bollinger Bands depict a descending channel with widening bands, indicating bearish sentiment and rising volatility.

The 50-period moving average is near the upper band with a downward slope; the price being well below this line indicates a strong downtrend. The 200-period moving average sits well above the upper band with a downward slope, indicating bearish sentiment over the longer term.

The TDI indicator's VB High reads 55, and the VB Low reads 33. The 22-point spread reflects the volatility level on the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base Line reads 44 with a downward slope, implying that bearish weight outweighs bullish weight.

The RSI Price Line reads 33 with a downward slope, indicating a downtrend.

The Trade Signal Line reads 40 with a downward slope, indicating a downtrend.

 

[radex78]

Silver is under significant bearish pressure.

The silver/US dollar pair (XAG/USD) is currently under significant bearish pressure, trading near multi-month lows—specifically within the $55.50–$56.30 range—seen since late last year. Last week, silver prices closed slightly higher at 55.863, having traded between a low of 54.750 and a high of 56.197, according to FXOpen charts.

The primary source of bearish pressure on precious metals like silver stems from statements by Federal Reserve officials—such as Vice Chair Philip Jefferson and Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan—hinting at further policy tightening should inflation fail to improve soon. The market currently assigns a roughly 50% probability to an interest rate hike in September. Expectations of a prolonged period of high rates have strengthened the US dollar, thereby weighing on the prices of precious metals, including silver.

Regarding geopolitical risks, although fresh tensions arose from exchanges between the US and Iran in the Middle East—disrupting shipping lanes in the Strait of Hormuz—demand for safe-haven assets like silver remained subdued and began to ease as the market focused more on the Fed's tightening stance.

In terms of supply and demand, the rise in global crude oil prices resulting from the US-Iran conflict has sparked concerns about supply-side inflation, prompting an aggressive stance from the Fed. Conversely, while the Silver Institute projects a long-term supply deficit, the seasonal summer slowdown and the threat of solar panel manufacturers shifting to silver-saving technologies are limiting the momentum of any short-term silver rally. Nevertheless, industrial demand continues to underpin silver prices, suggesting that the potential for a sharp decline remains limited in the medium term.

The US Dollar Index (DXY) and bond yields remain key factors to watch today; should the dollar weaken, XAG/USD could see a rebound. Technically, silver remains below the 200-day moving average, confirming seller dominance. However, with the price approaching oversold territory, there remains a possibility of consolidation and a modest corrective rebound should today's US economic data indicate a slowdown.

The estimated fair price range for XAGUSD is $54.48–$59.11. Immediate support is around $55.50, with the next target at $54.48. Immediate resistance is around $57.25, with the next target around $59.11. This forecast could be wrong.

XAGUSD D1

Silver price movement on the daily timeframe is currently near the lower band line. The Bollinger Bands depict a downward channel with contracting band spacing, indicating bearish sentiment and declining volatility.

The 50-period moving average sits above the upper band and traces a downward channel; the price being well below this line indicates a downtrend. The 200-period moving average sits above the 50-period MA and traces an upward channel, indicating bullish sentiment over the longer term. A "death cross" signal is present on this timeframe.

The TDI indicator's VB High points to 45 and VB Low points to 28. The 17-point difference reflects the volatility level on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line points to 37 with a flat trajectory, implying that bearish weight outweighs bullish weight.

The RSI Price Line points to 33 with a downward trajectory, indicating a downtrend.

The Trade Signal Line points to 37 with a flat trajectory, indicating sideways movement.

XAGUSD H4

Silver price on the H4 timeframe is positioned between the middle and lower bands. The Bollinger Bands depict a downward channel with expanding band spacing, indicating bearish sentiment and rising volatility.

The 50-period moving average sits between the upper and middle bands and traces a downward channel, indicating bearish sentiment. The 200-period moving average sits well above the upper band and traces a downward channel, indicating bearish sentiment over the longer term.

The TDI indicator's VB High points to 51 and VB Low points to 26. The 15-point difference reflects the volatility level on the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base Line points to 39 with a downward trajectory, implying that bearish weight outweighs bullish weight.

The RSI Price Line points to 35 with a flattening upward trajectory, indicating a fading uptrend.

The Trade Signal Line points to 30 with an upward trajectory, indicating an uptrend.

 

[radex78]

USD/JPY is consolidating strongly near the psychological high of 162.53.

Price action for the safe-haven USD/JPY pair shows a trend of strong consolidation near the psychological peak around 162.50. The market appears wary of potential intervention by the Japanese government at this psychological level, which is preventing a rally beyond it. USD/JPY currently stands at 162.602 on the FXOpen chart, forming a symmetrical triangle near multi-decade highs.

Overall, the long-term bullish trend in USD/JPY continues to be driven by the widening interest rate differential between the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan (BoJ). Recent US economic data demonstrates solid macroeconomic resilience, limiting market expectations for aggressive rate cuts by the Fed. This "higher-for-longer" stance from the Fed keeps US bond yields elevated, driving capital flows out of the Yen and into the USD.

Despite periodic speculation regarding monetary policy normalization and rate hikes by the BoJ, their pace remains very slow. The market's appetite for carry trades—borrowing low-interest JPY to purchase high-interest USD—maintains massive selling pressure on the Yen.

With the USD/JPY pair currently trading above the 162.00 level, the USD is in a "red zone" that risks triggering verbal or actual intervention by Japanese authorities. Traders should remain alert to potential sudden drops driven by liquidity intervention from Japanese monetary authorities.

Today's economic calendar is relatively quiet regarding high-impact data releases for both the US and Japan. US market focus this evening is limited to minor data points, such as the CB Leading Index (MoM). Price movements will likely be driven by technical flows and global market sentiment.

Geopolitical risks remain a key market focus. Escalating tensions involving the US and Iran are prompting investors to seek safe-haven assets. This uncertainty could trigger sudden volatility in USD/JPY movements, particularly if the market reacts to a surge in oil prices or if there is unexpected intervention by global monetary authorities.

Technically, USD/JPY is currently trading above its 50-day moving average, having held steady around the 162.53 level over the past 24 hours. The projected fair value range is 161.35–163.20. Immediate support lies near 161.80, with the next target at 161.35. Immediate resistance is around 162.85, with the next target at 163.20. This forecast could be wrong.

USD/JPY D1

On the daily timeframe, USDJPY is positioned above the middle band. The Bollinger Bands form an upward-sloping channel with slightly narrowing bands, indicating bullish sentiment accompanied by a decrease in volatility.

The 50-day moving average lies below the lower band of the upward-sloping channel; the price is well above this line, signaling an uptrend. The 200-day moving average is situated far below the lower band of the upward-sloping channel, indicating bullish sentiment over the longer term.

The TDI indicator's VB High reads 74, while the VB Low reads 53. The 21-point spread reflects the volatility level on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line stands at 53 with a flat trajectory, indicating that bullish weight outweighs bearish weight.

The RSI Price Line stands at 58 with a slightly downward slope, indicating a weak downtrend.

The Trade Signal Line stands at 57 with a flat trajectory, indicating sideways movement.

USDJPY H4

On the H4 timeframe, USDJPY is trading near the upper band line. The Bollinger Bands form a slightly upward-sloping channel with relatively narrow spacing, indicating range-bound movement with somewhat low volatility.

The 50-period moving average lies below the middle band and is flat; price is above the line, signaling an uptrend. The 200-period moving average is situated far below the lower band of the upward-sloping channel, indicating bullish sentiment over the longer term.

The TDI indicator's VB High reads 61, while the VB Low reads 47. The 14-point spread reflects the volatility level on the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base Line stands at 54 with an upward slope, indicating that bullish weight outweighs bearish weight.

The RSI Price Line stands at 60 with a flat trajectory, indicating sideways movement.

The Trade Signal Line stands at 55 with a flat trajectory, indicating sideways movement.

 

[radex78]

USD/CHF leans slightly bullish amidst news of US-Iran tensions

The safe-haven USD/CHF currency pair has shown a bullish trend over four days—characterized by a pattern of lower highs—reflecting US dollar dominance amidst the Middle East conflict involving the US and Iran.

USD/CHF is currently trading around the 0.81272 level on the FXOpen chart, following a session on July 21 that saw a low of 0.80909, a high of 0.81324, and a close at 0.81272.

The US dollar has strengthened as market expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate hike have risen again. The probability of a rate hike at the September meeting increased compared to the previous day, thereby supporting the USD. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the USD's performance against six major currencies, rose to the 101.188 level, driven by the US economy's resilience compared to other developed nations.

Escalating tensions and renewed military skirmishes between the US and Iran have impacted the USD/CHF pair, which operates through two opposing dynamics. The CHF is a safe-haven currency, valued for Switzerland's political neutrality and exceptional financial stability; amidst rising military tensions, global investors tend to shift assets to Switzerland to safeguard their wealth. Conversely, the USD gains support from these tensions because the Middle East conflict triggers a surge in energy prices. For the US, this energy price spike raises concerns about high inflation risks amidst slowing economic growth. This has caused expectations for Fed rate cuts to fade, thereby supporting the USD's strength.

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) tends to maintain a dovish stance to prevent an excessive appreciation of the CHF, which could harm Switzerland's export sector. Nevertheless, the CHF retains its safe-haven status. Should geopolitical tensions escalate or "risk-off" sentiment prevail, demand for the CHF could rise, putting downward pressure on the USD/CHF pair.

From a technical perspective, USD/CHF is currently trading above its 50-day moving average, with the price expected to remain within the 0.80300–0.81500 range. Nearest support is around 0.80800; the next target is around 0.80300. Nearest resistance is around 0.41450; the next target is around 0.8180. This forecast could be wrong.

USDCHF D1

On the daily timeframe, USDCHF price action is currently positioned right at the upper Bollinger Band. The bands form a flat channel with narrow spacing, indicating range-bound movement with moderate volatility.

The 50-period moving average (MA) sits below the lower band, forming an upward-sloping channel; the price is well above this line, signaling an uptrend. The 200-period MA lies below the 50-period MA and forms a flat channel, indicating sideways movement over the longer term.

The TDI indicator's VB High reads 70, while the VB Low reads 51. The 19-point spread reflects the volatility level on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line reads 61 with a flat channel, implying that bullish sentiment outweighs bearish sentiment.

The RSI Price Line reads 58 with an upward-sloping channel, indicating an uptrend.

The Trade Signal Line reads 57 with a flat channel, indicating sideways movement.

USDCHF H4

On the H4 timeframe, USDCHF is positioned above the upper Bollinger Band. The bands form an upward-sloping channel with widening spacing, reflecting bullish sentiment and increased volatility.

The 50-period MA is near the middle band, forming a slightly upward-sloping channel; the price is well above this line, signaling an uptrend. The 200-period MA lies below the lower band and forms an upward-sloping channel, indicating bullish sentiment over the longer term.

The TDI indicator's VB High reads 62, while the VB Low reads 38. The 24-point spread reflects the volatility level on the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base Line reads 50 with a flat channel, suggesting movement is tending toward a neutral path.

The RSI Price Line reads 65 with an upward-sloping channel, indicating an uptrend.

The Trade Signal Line reads 61 with an upward-sloping channel, indicating an uptrend.

 

[radex78]

WTI crude oil prices rise amid escalating geopolitical risks and short-term supply constraints.

The XTIUSD crude oil market is showing a bullish trend after crossing above the 50-day moving average. Oil prices are exhibiting high volatility within the $84.00–$88.50 per barrel range. Renewed geopolitical tensions and tight short-term supplies drive the recent surge in prices. WTI crude is currently trading at 85.97 on FXOpen charts, with bullish candles extending earlier gains.

Rising risk premiums are fueling the price increase. Dynamics in US-Iran relations and potential disruptions to tanker traffic in the Strait of Hormuz have reintroduced risk premiums to the oil market. Uncertainty regarding physical crude supplies from the Gulf region is sustaining strong buying pressure. Political dynamics and escalating tensions in conflict zones are raising trader concerns that the recovery of global supplies could face sudden delays.

Routine inventory reports indicate a reduction in stockpiles during the third quarter, suggesting that domestic consumption and refinery demand remain robust enough to absorb available supplies. Gradual supply cuts by OPEC+ and adjustments to spare capacity are limiting the potential for a sharp price drop resulting from OPEC+ production policies.

Global demand outlooks from the IEA and EIA suggest short-term price appreciation supported by a supply squeeze. However, the market remains cautious regarding the economic recovery in Asia—particularly China—which continues to fluctuate.

Conversely, EIA data shows a rise of approximately 2 million barrels in US crude inventories, a factor that fundamentally acts as a brake on price increases. The EIA’s medium-term outlook anticipates a potential easing of oil prices should global supplies normalize; however, geopolitical sentiment remains the dominant driver in the short term.

WTI crude oil prices are projected to trade within a reasonable range of $82.50–$88.50. Immediate support is at $84.50, with the next target at $83.00. Immediate resistance is around $87.80, with the next target around $88.60. This forecast could be wrong.

XTIUSD D1

WTI oil price movement on the daily timeframe is near the upper band. The Bollinger Bands form an upward channel with widening bands, indicating increased volatility.

The 50-period moving average (below the upper band) forms a downward channel, while the price remaining above the line indicates upward trend pressure. The 200-period moving average (near the middle band) forms a slight upward channel, indicating bullish sentiment over the longer term.

The TDI indicator's VB High reads 60, and VB Low reads 19; the 41-point difference reflects the volatility level on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line reads 40 with an upward channel, implying that bearish weight outweighs bullish weight, despite the potential for an upward move.

The RSI Price Line reads 66 with an upward channel, indicating an uptrend.

The Trade Signal Line reads 60 with an upward channel, indicating an uptrend.

XTIUSD H4

On the H4 timeframe, the WTI oil price is below the upper band. The Bollinger Bands form an upward channel with wide band spacing, indicating bullish sentiment and high volatility.

The 50-period moving average (above the lower band) forms an upward channel, with the price well above the line, indicating a strong uptrend. The 200-period moving average (below the lower band) forms a downward channel, indicating bearish sentiment over the longer term.

The TDI indicator's VB High reads 73, and VB Low reads 55; the 18-point difference reflects the volatility level on the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base Line reads 64 with a flat channel, indicating sideways movement over the longer term.

The RSI Price Line reads 65 with a downward channel, indicating a downtrend.

The Trade Signal Line reads 69 with a flat channel, indicating sideways movement.

 

[radex78]

USD/JPY breaks through a psychological level, hitting a new high not seen since 1986

The weakening of the Japanese Yen appears unstoppable, despite market caution regarding potential currency intervention as the JPY hovered around the key psychological level of 162.00. USD/JPY successfully broke through to a new high of 163.988, ending a consolidation phase at the previous peak. According to the FXOpen chart, the pair is currently forming a long-bodied bullish candle, with a low of 162.995, a high of 163.988, and a close at 163.858.

The USD/JPY pair's breach of the 163.00 level—marking a multi-decade high not seen since 1986—was driven by macroeconomic factors, interest rate differentials, and global commodity prices. The interest rate gap between the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan (BoJ) remains wide, at approximately 250–275 basis points. This environment fuels "carry trades," where market participants borrow JPY to purchase higher-yielding, USD-denominated assets.

Escalating tensions in the Middle East have driven up crude oil prices. Consequently, energy-importing nations like Japan face ballooning oil import bills, a widening trade deficit, and direct downward pressure on the Yen's exchange rate.

Although the Yen is historically considered a safe-haven currency, the US Dollar is currently benefiting more from high US bond yields—a trend spurred by geopolitical crises. Japan's substantial fiscal spending plans, combined with the BoJ's cautious approach to raising interest rates, have led the market to perceive Japan's tightening measures as too slow to counteract depreciation pressures.

The extreme depreciation of the JPY has triggered a surge in the prices of imported goods, particularly energy fuels and food. This has raised the cost of living for Japanese households and squeezed consumer purchasing power. The 163.00 level remains a "red zone" for potential intervention by Japanese authorities. When Japanese authorities intervene in the foreign exchange market, the market can experience sudden volatility and pullbacks.

Domestic companies reliant on imported raw materials face shrinking profit margins. It is often difficult to fully pass on rising import costs to consumers without dampening demand. A prolonged depreciation of the yen could also force the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to raise benchmark interest rates or reduce bond purchases more aggressively than originally planned to stabilize the currency; this, in turn, could increase the burden of government bond yields.

The projected fair value range for the USD/JPY pair today is 162.00–164.80. Immediate support is around 163.20, with the next target at 163.50. Immediate resistance is around 164.30, with the next target at 164.80. This forecast could be wrong.

USD/JPY D1

On the daily timeframe, USDJPY has broken above the upper Bollinger Band; the bands are forming an upward channel with widening spacing, indicating bullish sentiment and high volatility.

The 50-period moving average (located near the lower band) is forming an upward channel, with the price well above the line, indicating an uptrend. The 200-period moving average is positioned well below the lower band and is also forming an upward channel, indicating bullish sentiment over the longer term.

The TDI indicator's VB High reads 74, and the VB Low reads 53; the 21-point spread reflects the volatility level on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line reads 64 with a flat trajectory, implying that bullish weight outweighs bearish weight.

The RSI Price Line reads 70 with an upward trajectory, indicating an uptrend that has reached overbought levels.

The Trade Signal Line reads 63 with an upward trajectory, indicating an uptrend.

USDJPY H4

On the H4 timeframe, the USDJPY pair is trading near the upper Bollinger Band. The bands are forming an upward channel with wide spacing, indicating an uptrend and significantly increased volatility.

The 50-period moving average (positioned between the middle and lower bands) is forming an upward channel, with the price well above the line, indicating a strong uptrend. The 200-period moving average is positioned well below the lower band and is forming an upward channel, indicating bullish sentiment over the longer term.

The TDI indicator's VB High reads 78, and the VB Low reads 49; the 29-point spread reflects the volatility level on the H4 timeframe.

The RSI Price Line reads 80 with a flattening upward trajectory, indicating that the uptrend is weakening while remaining in overbought territory.

The Trade Signal Line reads 74 with an upward trajectory, indicating an uptrend.

 

[radex78]

EUR/USD market sentiment leans bearish to neutral

The EUR/USD major pair displayed interesting dynamics during Friday's trading session, with a movement leaning from bearish to neutral sentiment. The price formed a small-bodied bearish candle with a long upper wick. According to the FXOpen chart, the price recorded a high of 1.14006, a low of 1.13640, and a close of 1.13641. This movement brought the EUR/USD close to the lower band. However, the opening of the market on Monday showed a "gap up," indicating an opening price higher than Friday's close.

At its last meeting, the ECB maintained interest rates. Although it signaled a potential rate hike for the September meeting, the market assessed that this move was insufficient to overcome the current strength of the US dollar. The ECB responded to rising Eurozone inflation—projecting it to reach around 3.0% by 2026 due to surging energy prices—by shifting its policy stance. It moved from an expected easing to a tighter stance for the medium term to ensure inflation returns to the 2% target.

The Fed maintains a hawkish stance, keeping US bond yields high and supporting the US dollar's strength. US interest rates currently range between 3.50% and 3.75%. The US economy is expanding solidly with a relatively stable labor market, and unemployment hovering around 4.2%. However, inflation remains above the 2% target due to energy supply issues and production costs. Market expectations, which earlier in the year predicted rate cuts, have completely shifted. Market participants are now factoring in scenarios where rates remain higher for longer, or even a potential limited hike at year-end if inflation fails to cool down.

Under the leadership of Chair Kevin Warsh, the Fed has also moved away from providing rigid forward guidance; consequently, the policy direction depends heavily on week-to-week economic data releases. The interest rate differential—showing US rates significantly higher than those in the Eurozone—continues to make US dollar yields more attractive. As both central banks have paused tightening measures while monitoring energy inflation, EUR/USD movements are currently highly sensitive to the release of daily economic indicators, such as manufacturing data, durable goods figures, and monthly inflation rates.

Energy prices and geopolitical tensions continue to drive demand for safe-haven assets like the USD, thereby influencing the US dollar's performance. Tensions between the US and Iran have escalated again; since mid-July, both nations have launched renewed military strikes. The US has targeted military sites and infrastructure across various regions of Iran. In retaliation, Iran has attacked US military bases in the Gulf region and threatened strategic shipping lanes—including those near the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea—keeping the risk to energy trade high.

The UN has once again called for de-escalation and urged both parties to return to the negotiating table. Meanwhile, political debate has emerged within the United States; the US House of Representatives passed a resolution requiring Congressional approval for further military engagement with Iran, although this measure has not yet halted military operations.

From a technical perspective, the EUR/USD pair is trading within Bollinger Bands, with an estimated range of 1.13300–1.14750. Immediate support lies around 1.13600, with the next target at 1.13300. Resistance is situated around 1.1430, with the next target at 1.1475. This forecast could be wrong.

EUR/USD D1

On the daily timeframe, EURUSD is positioned between the middle and lower Bollinger bands. The bands form a flat channel, indicating movement within a narrow range and low volatility.

The 50-period moving average sits above the upper band, forming a downward-sloping channel; the price trading below this line indicates a downtrend. The 200-period moving average is well above the upper band, forming a flat channel, which indicates sideways movement.

The TDI indicator's VB High reads 50, and the VB Low reads 29; the 21-point difference reflects the volatility level on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line reads 39 with a flat trajectory, implying that bearish weight outweighs bullish weight.

The RSI Price Line reads 40, curving upward, which indicates an uptrend.

The Trade Signal Line reads 42 with a downward slope, indicating a downtrend.

EURUSD H4

On the H4 timeframe, EURUSD clearly opened with a significant gap. The pair is positioned near the middle Bollinger band; the bands form a downward-sloping channel with wide spacing, indicating bearish sentiment and high volatility.

The 50-period moving average is below the upper band, forming a flat channel; the price is trading well below this line, indicating a downtrend. The 200-period moving average sits above the upper band, forming a downward-sloping channel, indicating bearish sentiment over the longer term.

The TDI indicator's VB High reads 52, and the VB Low reads 32; the 20-point difference reflects the volatility level on the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base Line reads 42 with a flat trajectory, implying that bearish weight outweighs bullish weight.

The RSI Price Line reads 41, curving upward, which indicates an uptrend.

The Trade Signal Line reads 37, curving upward, which indicates an uptrend.

 

[radex78]

AUD/USD Consolidates Amid "Wait-and-See" Stance

At the market open on Monday, the AUD/USD pair showed a significant opening gap, starting at 0.69942 compared to Friday's close of 0.69738, according to FXOpen price charts. The price subsequently rose to a high of 0.70113 before falling to a low of 0.69855. The pair is currently tending to consolidate around the psychological 0.69800–0.70000 range. The market is adopting a "wait-and-see" approach ahead of key data releases scheduled for the middle of the week.

Markets are anticipating the release of Australia's second-quarter CPI data, scheduled for Wednesday, July 29. Core inflation is projected to rise to 3.7% year-on-year (YoY) from 3.5%, remaining above the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) 2%–3% target range. High inflation and solid employment data are fueling speculation that the RBA could raise interest rates by 25 basis points—from the current 4.35%—at its upcoming meeting on August 11. These expectations are providing support for the AUD.

The Federal Reserve's interest rate decision is also due this week; US rates currently stand at the 3.50%–3.75% level. Rising oil prices, driven by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, have reignited concerns regarding global inflation. This has bolstered the US Dollar Index (DXY) and fueled expectations that the Fed will maintain a hawkish stance.

Traders are now focusing on Australia's CPI release on Wednesday; should the CPI figures come in hotter than expected, the AUD/USD pair could potentially break through the 0.70000 resistance level.

As a commodity currency, the AUD benefits from high energy prices and exports; however, the surge in oil prices also strengthens the USD, which acts as a safe-haven asset. Traders are also monitoring global stock market movements to gauge whether "risk-off" or "risk-on" sentiment is prevailing in equity markets. Earnings reports from major corporations and Federal Reserve decisions could trigger volatility in the AUD/USD pair.

From a technical perspective, AUD/USD is trading below the 50-day moving average and above the 200-day moving average. The estimated fair price range for AUD/USD is between 0.69450 and 0.70150. Immediate support lies around 0.69700, with the next target at approximately 0.69450. Immediate resistance is around 0.70100, with the next target at approximately 0.70350. This forecast could be wrong.

AUD/USD D1

On the daily timeframe, the AUDUSD pair is positioned between the upper and middle Bollinger Bands. The bands form an upward-sloping channel with wide spacing, indicating bullish sentiment and high volatility.

The 50-day moving average, located near the upper band, shows a downward slope; the price sitting just below this line indicates a downtrend. The 200-day moving average, near the lower band, shows an upward slope, indicating bullish sentiment over the longer term.

The TDI indicator's VB High reads 55, and the VB Low reads 27; the 28-point spread reflects the volatility level on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line reads 41 with a flat slope, implying that bearish weight outweighs bullish weight.

The RSI Price Line reads 52 with an upward slope, indicating an uptrend.

The Trade Signal Line reads 51 with a flat slope, indicating sideways movement.

AUDUSD H4

On the H4 timeframe, AUDUSD price action is near the middle Bollinger Band. The bands form a flat channel with relatively wide spacing, indicating range-bound movement with moderately high volatility.

The 50-period moving average is near the middle band with a flat slope; the price sitting just below this line indicates a downtrend. The 200-period moving average, near the lower band, shows a downward slope, indicating bearish sentiment over the longer term.

The TDI indicator's VB High reads 63, and the VB Low reads 40; the 23-point spread reflects the volatility level on the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base Line reads 52 with a flat slope, implying that bullish weight outweighs bearish weight.

The RSI Price Line reads 48 with a flat slope, indicating sideways movement.

The Trade Signal Line reads 51 with a flat slope, indicating sideways movement.

 

[radex78]

Crude oil prices tumble as geopolitical risk premium eases

WTI crude oil prices have fallen sharply for three consecutive days as the geopolitical risk premium in the Middle East subsides. WTI prices dropped below the $80 level, retreating from a previous high of $92.43. US crude oil is currently trading around 78.39—having hit a low of 77.20 on the FXOpen chart—moving down from the upper band toward the middle band line.

Easing military tensions and diplomatic pauses or dialogue between the US and Iran have alleviated concerns regarding supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. This has triggered profit-taking following the earlier rally in oil prices.

The latest US crude oil inventory report shows a buildup in stocks of crude oil, gasoline, and distillates. Although US refinery operations remain high to meet summer demand, the rise in inventories is exerting short-term downward pressure on prices.

OPEC+ and the EIA have noted a gradual recovery in global supply. While long-term demand projections remain stable, the normalization of refinery operations and oil shipments in the short term has resulted in relatively adequate market supply.

Traders are now focusing on US oil inventory reports, logistical developments in the Strait of Hormuz, and sentiment regarding US monetary policy.

A larger-than-expected surge in inventories in the official weekly US oil stock report could trigger further price declines.

Any new developments regarding shipping security in the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea are likely to trigger an immediate market response.

Changes in Federal Reserve interest rate expectations and movements in the DXY (US Dollar Index)—specifically the strengthening or weakening of the US dollar—generally impact USD-denominated commodities, including XTIUSD.

Today, XTIUSD is expected to trade within a range of $75.00 to $83.80. Immediate support lies around 78.00, with the next target at $75.00. Immediate resistance is around $82.50, with the next target around $83.80. This forecast could be wrong.

XTIUSD D1

On the daily timeframe, the WTI oil price sits just above the middle band. The Bollinger Bands form an upward-sloping channel with wide band spacing, indicating bullish sentiment accompanied by high volatility.

The 50-period moving average lies between the middle and upper bands, sloping downward with the price trading below the line, signaling a downtrend. The 200-period moving average sits below the middle band, tracing a gently rising channel, which suggests that bullish sentiment is somewhat fading.

The TDI indicator's VB High reads 66, while the VB Low reads 18; the 48-point spread reflects the volatility level on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line reads 43 with a rising channel, implying that bearish weight outweighs bullish weight and indicating potential for an upward move.

The RSI Price Line reads 49, with its channel curving downward and crossing the TSL, signaling a sharp downtrend.

The Trade Signal Line reads 62, with a downward-curving channel indicating a downtrend.

XTIUSD H4

On the H4 timeframe, the WTI oil price is currently near the lower band. The Bollinger Bands form a downward-sloping channel with expanding band spacing, indicating bearish sentiment and rising volatility.

The 50-period moving average sits just below the middle band, tracing a gently rising channel, though the price trading below the line signals a downtrend. The 200-period moving average lies below the lower band, tracing a flat channel, which indicates sideways movement over the longer term.

The TDI indicator's VB High reads 83, while the VB Low reads 31; the 52-point spread reflects the volatility level on the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base Line reads 57 with a downward-sloping channel, implying greater bullish weight and potential for a downward move.

The RSI Price Line reads 32 with a downward-sloping channel, indicating a downtrend.

The Trade Signal Line reads 35 with a downward-sloping channel, indicating a downtrend.

 

[radex78]

GBP/USD rises in response to the Fed's interest rate decision

The GBP/USD currency pair rose from a low of 1.32788 to a high of 1.33872 on the FXOpen chart, following the FOMC decision to maintain interest rates within the 3.50%–3.75% range. Dovish signals—or indications of a slowdown in US rate hikes—curbed the dollar's appreciation, allowing major currencies like the GBP to strengthen.

Beyond maintaining interest rates, the FOMC statement highlighted that US economic growth remains solid, with strong investment and productivity, while the labor market remains stable and the unemployment rate relatively unchanged.

The Fed emphasized that inflation remains above the 2% target, driven largely by supply disruptions and energy prices; controlling inflation remains a top priority. Three members dissented, favoring a 0.25% rate hike, indicating a faction concerned that inflation is not yet sufficiently under control.

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh emphasized that decisions at the next meeting would depend heavily on incoming economic data, particularly regarding inflation and labor market conditions.

The GBP has shown resilience, supported by market expectations that the Bank of England (BoE) will take a cautious approach to cutting interest rates from their current 3.75% level. The resilience of the UK services sector has also bolstered the GBP's stability against the US dollar.

Key factors to watch today include the release of US second-quarter GDP data, US Initial Jobless Claims, and global market risk sentiment.

Market focus is centered on the initial estimate of US second-quarter economic growth; if GDP growth falls short of expectations, it could weaken the USD and drive further gains for GBP/USD. Initial Jobless Claims serve as a gauge of US labor market health; claims exceeding forecasts would fuel speculation regarding potential interest rate cuts.

Tensions in the Middle East continue to drive global risk sentiment. Rising tensions could drive up oil prices and boost demand for safe-haven assets, potentially strengthening the USD.

From a technical perspective, GBP/USD is positioned right at the 50-day moving average. The fair price range for today is estimated to be between 1.32300 and 1.33800. Immediate support lies around 1.32500, with the next target in the 1.32000 range. Immediate resistance is around 1.33500, with the next target around 1.34200. This forecast could be wrong.

GBP/USD D1

On the daily timeframe, GBPUSD is positioned below the middle band. The Bollinger Bands form a flat channel with wide band spacing, indicating expected range-bound movement and high volatility.

The 50-period moving average lies below the middle band, forming a downward-sloping channel and acting as dynamic resistance. The 200-period moving average sits above the middle band, forming a flat channel that indicates sideways movement over the longer term.

The TDI indicator's VB High reads 62, while the VB Low reads 32; the 30-point spread reflects the volatility level on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line (MBL) reads 47 with an upward-sloping channel, implying that bearish weight outweighs bullish weight and upside potential.

The RSI Price Line reads 50, curving upward to cross above the MBL and TSL, signaling an uptrend.

The Trade Signal Line (TSL) reads 45 with a flat channel, indicating sideways movement.

GBPUSD H4

On the H4 timeframe, GBPUSD is trading near the upper band. The Bollinger Bands form a gently sloping downward channel with slightly narrowing band spacing, indicating weakening bearish sentiment and declining volatility.

The 50-period moving average is near the upper band, forming a downward channel; the price's position relative to the line suggests a fading downtrend. The 200-period moving average sits below the upper band, forming a flat channel that indicates sideways movement over the longer term.

The TDI indicator's VB High reads 50, while the VB Low reads 27; the spread of 23 reflects the volatility level on the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base Line (MBL) reads 38 with a flat channel, implying that bearish weight outweighs bullish weight.

The RSI Price Line reads 60 with an upward-sloping channel, crossing above the TSL from below, signaling a strong uptrend.

The Trade Signal Line (TSL) reads 46 with an upward-sloping channel, indicating an uptrend.