Daily Analysis Forex Mix

[radex78]

WTI oil prices surge nearly $100 amid the possibility of a prolonged war

Crude oil prices have fluctuated during the Iran-US-Israel war, reaching $114 after the war began. Prices also briefly dipped to around $84 when Trump expressed hope that negotiations would progress. However, hopes of de-escalation faded when Iran stated it did not want to negotiate with the US, citing the US's frequent use of diplomatic attacks on Iran during negotiations.

Oil prices are again at risk of rising due to expectations that the war will last longer, despite US claims that it will end in a matter of weeks.

Meanwhile, there have been protests in all 50 US states, with the No Kings protest movement representing the largest mass mobilization in US history, demonstrating against Trump's authoritarian policies, military involvement in Iran, and the crackdown on immigration agents.

The main factor driving oil prices currently is the conflict in the Middle East, directly involving Iran since the US-Israel attack on Iran on February 28, 2026.

Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz has disrupted supply distribution by approximately 20 million barrels per day. Approximately 40 Middle Eastern energy facilities were damaged in the war, causing significant supply disruptions. Additional risks arise from the Bab el-Mandeb route, which involves Iran's proxy group, the Houthis, and others. The greatest risk is the closure of global oil routes if the war continues.

There are reports that the US has sent more than 3,000 troops to the Middle East to support operations, which could involve ground confrontations. As long as the conflict persists, oil remains at a high premium.

OPEC+ initially planned to begin unwinding voluntary production cuts in April 2026, but they remain flexible depending on market conditions. IEA member countries agreed to release 400 million barrels from emergency oil reserves in mid-March to stabilize prices. US oil production has stabilized at 13.6-13.7 million barrels per day, but drilling volume has decreased.

Current market sentiment, given rising global inflation due to high energy prices, predicts a worst-case scenario where oil prices could reach $120-$130.

XTIUSD D1

WTI oil prices rose over the weekend, drawing a long-bodied bullish candlestick, nearly reaching the $100 level. The price is below the upper band. The Bollinger Bands draw an ascending channel with wide spacing, indicating bullish sentiment and high volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) above the lower band draws an ascending channel; prices well above the line indicate an uptrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) below the lower band draws a flat channel, indicating sideways movement over a longer period.

The TDI indicator's VB High is 83, and its VB Low is 50. The 33-point difference reflects the volatility value on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line is 67 with an ascending channel, indicating a greater bullish weighting than bearish weighting.

The RSI Price Line is 63 with a channel sloping upwards, indicating an uptrend.

The Trade Signal Line is 62 with a descending channel crossing the MBL from above, indicating a downtrend.

XTIUSD H4

On the H4 timeframe, WTI oil prices are near the upper band. The Bollinger Bands appear to be expanding, with the upper and lower bands moving away, indicating increased volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) is above the middle band, drawing a flat channel, with the price above the line, indicating an uptrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) is well below the lower band, drawing an upward channel, indicating bullish sentiment over the longer term.

The TDI indicator's VB High is at 64, and its VB Low indicator is at 34. The 30-point difference reflects the volatility value on the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base Line is at 49 within an upward channel, indicating greater bearishness than bullishness, suggesting upside potential.

The RSI Price Line is at 66 within an upward channel, indicating an uptrend.

The Trade Signal Line is at 59 within an upward channel, indicating an uptrend.

 

[radex78]

GBP/USD touched a two-month low around 1.31740.

The GBPUSD price has declined significantly over the past 5 days. The price is currently around 1.31847, near the lower band.

The GBPUSD shows potential for high volatility due to the upcoming release of important data from both countries. Factors affecting the GBP include soaring UK inflation expectations, which are expected to reach 5.4% in the short term. This supports the Bank of England's (BoE) more hawkish stance as the possibility of an interest rate hike remains.

The BoE is currently leaning toward holding interest rates, with most economists seeing them remain at 3.75% for the next few months. There is no strong push for GBP to rise in the near term. Meanwhile, business activity in the UK has slowed, and production costs have risen due to rising energy prices, which have weighed on the GBP.

The UK will release final GDP growth data for the fourth quarter. Consensus estimates stable growth at 0.1% and 1% annual GDP. The fourth-quarter current account data is expected to show a widening deficit; a large deficit is usually a negative sentiment for the GBP.

The USD remains strong amid the Middle East conflict as investors seek it as a safe-haven, as it is currently the most liquid currency. The Fed is expected to adopt a hawkish stance, with interest rates likely to remain high until September 2026. USD yields tend to be more attractive, supporting the US dollar's rise.

The US will release JOLTS job openings data. A figure higher than 6.87 million could strengthen the USD, indicating a tight labor market, supporting a high-interest-rate policy. US consumer confidence is expected to rise to 91.2, which could provide an additional boost to the USD, reflecting optimism about the US economy.

The Middle East conflict is a key global factor. The potential for rising energy prices continues to loom over the market as the Iran-US-Israel war has the potential to escalate. There are reports that the US is sending approximately 3,500 ground troops to the Middle East, who are expected to conduct ground operations. Meanwhile, in the US, there have been massive protests in all 50 states over the Trump administration's policies regarding immigration and the Iran war.

The current price is around 1.3180, with the nearest support forecast at 1.3150. The next support target is around 1.3110. The nearest resistance is around 1.3240, with the next resistance target around 1.3275. This forecast could be incorrect.

GBPUSD D1

On the daily timeframe, GBPUSD is currently near the lower band. The Bollinger Bands are drawing a descending channel with wide band spacing, indicating bearish sentiment and high volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) is near the upper band, drawing a flat channel, with the price below the line indicating a downtrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) is above the middle band, drawing a flat channel, indicating sideways movement over a longer period.

The VB High TDI indicator is pointing at 52, and the VB Low is pointing at 33. The 19-point difference reflects the volatility value on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line is pointing at 42 with a descending channel, indicating a greater weighting of bears than bulls.

The RSI Price Line is pointing at 36 with a descending channel crossing the TSL and MBL from above, indicating a downtrend.

The Trade Signal Line is pointing at 43 with a descending channel, indicating a downtrend.

GBPUSD H4

On the H4 timeframe, the GBPUSD price movement is near the lower band. The Bollinger Bands are drawing a descending channel with wide band spacing, indicating bearish sentiment and high volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) above the middle band draws a descending channel, with the price well below the line, indicating a strong downtrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) near the upper band draws a descending channel, indicating bearish sentiment over the longer term.

The TDI indicator's VB High indicator is at 62, and its VB Low indicator is at 26. The 36-point difference reflects the volatility value on the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base Line is at 44 within a descending channel, indicating a greater weighting of bears than bulls.

The RSI Price Line is at 26 within a descending channel, indicating a downtrend in oversold levels.

The Trade Signal Line is at 27 within a descending channel, indicating a downtrend.

 

[radex78]

Silver Prices in a Critical Consolidation Phase After Experiencing Extreme Volatility at the Beginning of the Year

Silver prices attempted to rise yesterday, drawing a long-bodied bullish candle after consolidating during the previous week's price movement. XAGUSD formed a high of around 75,353, a low of 69,010, and a close of 75,149.

Based on the current market situation, XAGUSD is in a critical consolidation phase after experiencing extreme volatility at the beginning of the year. After reaching an all-time high (ATH) around $121 in late January 2026, silver prices have corrected more than 40% and are now attempting to find a new floor in the $70 area.

The Fed's hawkish sentiment surprised the market heading into the second quarter of 2026. The Fed's shift from expectations of a rate cut, originally predicted for May, has now dropped dramatically. This has put pressure on non-yielding assets like silver.

Silver remains structurally strong, as this is the third consecutive year of a supply deficit. Industrial demand from solar panels, electric vehicles, and AI data centers remains a key driver despite price volatility. However, signs of global economic weakness due to the Iran war could dampen industrial demand.

Today, the market will focus on US data releases, including the ADP payrolls and the ISM manufacturing PMI. If these data indicate economic weakness, the US dollar could weaken, providing a boost for silver to rebound.

Silver is also affected by the performance of the USD because it is priced in USD; when the USD rises, silver tends to fall. Currently, the DXY has declined from a high of 100.643 to a low of 99.808.

Geopolitical factors in the Middle East remain the main catalysts for increased safe-haven demand. However, price direction is highly volatile, and capital flows could shift to the USD or other safe-haven assets depending on the escalation.

XAGUSD D1

The silver price on the daily timeframe is currently below the middle band. The Bollinger Bands have drawn a descending channel with wide band spacing, indicating bearish sentiment and high volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) above the middle band has drawn a descending channel, while prices below the line indicate a downtrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) below the lower band has drawn an ascending channel, indicating bullish sentiment over the longer term.

The VB High TDI indicator is pointing at 57, and the VB Low at 34. The 23-point difference reflects the volatility value on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line is pointing at 45 with a descending channel, indicating a greater weighting of bears than bulls.

The RSI Price Line is pointing at 42 with an ascending channel crossing the TSL from the downside, indicating an uptrend.

The Trade Signal Line is pointing at 38 with an ascending channel, indicating an uptrend.

XAGUSD H4

The silver price movement on the H4 timeframe is near the upper band. The Bollinger Bands have drawn an ascending channel with widening band spacing, indicating increased volatility with a bullish bias.

The 50-day moving average (MA) near the middle band draws a descending channel, with the price above the line indicating an uptrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) above the upper band draws a descending channel, indicating bearish sentiment over the longer term.

The TDI indicator's VB High indicator is at 61, and its VB Low indicator is at 39. The 22-point difference reflects volatility on the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base Line is at 50 within an ascending channel, indicating the market is in a neutral position with growth potential.

The RSI Price Line is at 65 within an ascending channel, indicating an uptrend.

The Trade Signal Line is at 59 within an ascending channel, indicating an uptrend.

 

[radex78]

EUR/JPY shows mixed movement with a limited upward bias

The EUR/JPY cross yesterday drew a medium-bodied bullish candle, extending the previous recovery. The price formed a high of 184.241, a low of 183.231, and a close of 183.964.

The EUR/JPY price movement exhibited mixed dynamics, with range-bound movement for several months. This reflects the contrasting dynamics between European and Japanese monetary policies, coupled with pressure from global geopolitical factors.

In the eurozone, the ECB recently revised its inflation outlook upward to 2.6% from 1.9%, due to the impact of the Middle East conflict, which has driven up energy prices. At its most recent meeting in March, the ECB maintained its interest rate at 2.00%. However, the market is now starting to factor in the potential for one or two rate hikes in 2026 to curb inflation. This policy expectation is boosting the euro.

Regarding eurozone economic growth, the eurozone GDP projection was cut to 0.9% for 2026, reflecting concerns about stagflation, or high inflation with low growth.

In Japan, the Tankan survey results released on April 1 showed manufacturing optimism rose to 77, exceeding market expectations. This strengthens the case for the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to continue raising interest rates. The BoJ's interest rate is currently at 0.75%, and many analysts predict it will raise by 25 basis points to 1.00% at its April 22 meeting.

The Japanese yen is a safe-haven currency, and although still vulnerable, it receives sporadic support whenever geopolitical tensions in the Middle East escalate, triggering capital flows into safe-haven assets.

Market sentiment for the EURJPY is currently mixed to bullish. The bullish side is supported by market expectations that the ECB may have to raise interest rates more quickly due to inflation caused by surging energy prices.

The bearish side for the EURJPY is supported by improving Japanese fundamentals, as evidenced by the Tankan survey, which signals the BoJ's policy normalization this month.

Traders are closely monitoring geopolitical developments in the Middle East, as surging oil prices could soon put pressure on the euro through inflation, while simultaneously strengthening the yen as a safe-haven currency.

EURJPY price movement forecast: nearest support is around 183.10, with the next support target around 182.80. Nearest resistance is around 184.50, with the next resistance target around 184.80. This forecast could be wrong.

EURJPY D1

On the daily timeframe, EURJPY is between the upper and middle bands. The Bollinger Bands draw a flat channel with narrow band spacing, indicating sideways movement with low volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) is near the middle band, drawing a flat channel; prices above the line indicate an uptrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) is well below the lower band, drawing an upward channel, indicating bullish sentiment over the longer term.

The VB High TDI indicator is pointing at 58, and the VB Low is pointing at 42. The 16-point difference reflects the volatility value on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line is pointing at 50 with a flat channel, indicating the market is in a neutral position.

The RSI Price Line is pointing at 53 with an upward channel, indicating an uptrend.

The Trade Signal Line is pointing at 53 with a downward channel, indicating a downtrend.

EURJPY H4

On the H4 timeframe, EURJPY is between the upper and middle bands. The Bollinger Bands are drawing a downward channel with wide band spacing, indicating bearish sentiment and high volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) above the middle band draws a flat channel, with the price crossing the line from the upside, indicating a downtrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) below the middle band draws a flat channel, indicating sideways movement over the longer term.

The TDI indicator's VB High is pointing at 65, and its VB Low is pointing at 35. The 30-point difference reflects volatility on the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base Line is pointing at 50 with a slight downward channel, indicating the market is in a neutral position with potential for a decline.

The RSI Price Line is pointing at 53 with a downward-sloping channel, indicating a downtrend.

The Trade Signal Line is pointing at 53, with an upward channel crossing the MBL from the downside, indicating an uptrend.

 

[radex78]

USD/JPY Rises Ahead of NFP Data, Wary of Japanese Intervention

The USD/JPY currency pair rose sharply from a low of 158.275 to a high of 159.745. Today, the USD/JPY has the potential for high volatility as it coincides with the release of crucial US economic data.

Today, the US Department of Labor will release Non-Farm Payrolls data. This is often a market-moving news item; if the NFP is higher than expected, it could support a sharp strengthening of the USD.

The Fed is currently holding interest rates in the 3.50%-3.75% range. The market is looking for clues as to whether a rate cut will be made at its April or June meeting. Strong employment data released today could delay expectations of a rate cut, which would support a stronger USD.

According to the CME Group's Fedwatch tool, the target probability of the Fed maintaining interest rates at its April 29 meeting is 99.5%.

Japan is currently showing signs of stable inflation above 2%, but the Bank of Japan remains inclined towards an accommodative stance. Although the Bank of Japan (BoJ) has begun a policy of easing, there are signs of another interest rate hike. Japanese inflation is influenced by high oil prices and a weakening yen. Geopolitical tensions, such as those in the Middle East, often lead to the JPY being sought as a safe haven, potentially suppressing the USD/JPY's rise.

Japanese interest rates are currently far below those of the US, and the JPY may occasionally strengthen, but this is not yet a significant trend. The price range of 160 and above is vulnerable to Japanese government intervention.

The Middle East conflict remains vulnerable to escalation; in a global war, investors tend to seek safe-haven assets. The JPY and USD are considered safe-haven currencies. However, Japan's dependence on energy imports makes the JPY more vulnerable when oil prices spike due to the conflict in the Strait of Hormuz. This often gives the USD an advantage over the JPY during energy crises.

The US-Israel war with Iran has disrupted global energy supplies. If prices continue to skyrocket, US inflation will remain high. This forces the Fed to adopt a hawkish stance, even if employment data is weak. This supports the USD, preventing it from falling too far.

The current USDJPY price is trading around 169.80. The 160.00 level remains a key psychological focus for traders. The nearest support is estimated at 158.60, with the next support target around 157.90. The nearest resistance is around 160.15, with the next resistance target around 160.80. This forecast could be wrong.

USDJPY D1

On the daily timeframe, the USDJPY price is currently between the middle and upper bands. The Bollinger Bands draw an ascending channel with narrowing band spacing, indicating bullish sentiment and decreasing volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) below the lower band draws a horizontal channel, while prices above the line indicate an uptrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) is well below the 50-day moving average (MA) draws an ascending channel, indicating bullish sentiment over the longer term.

The TDI indicator's VB High is at 69, and its VB Low is at 47. The 22-point difference reflects the volatility value on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line is at 58 with an ascending channel, indicating a greater weighting of bullish sentiment than bearish sentiment.

The RSI Price Line is at 57 with a channel sloping upwards, indicating an uptrend.

The Trade Signal Line is at 67 with a flat channel, indicating sideways movement.

USDJPY H4

On the H4 timeframe, the USDJPY is between the middle and upper bands. The Bollinger Bands draw a flat channel with wide band spacing, indicating rangebound movement and high volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) near the middle band draws a flat channel; prices above the line indicate an uptrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) below the lower band draws an ascending channel, indicating bullish sentiment over the longer term.

The VB High TDI indicator is pointing at 70, and the VB Low is pointing at 33. The 37-point difference reflects the volatility value on the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base Line is pointing at 52 with a flat channel, indicating a greater weighting of bullish sentiment than bearish sentiment.

The RSI Price Line is pointing at 56 with a flat channel, indicating a fading uptrend.

The Trade Signal Line is pointing at 54, with an ascending channel crossing the MBL from the bottom, indicating an uptrend.

 

[radex78]

WTI oil prices surge due to the ongoing US-Iran conflict

Oil prices surged on Friday, April 3rd, by around $10 per barrel due to the ongoing US-Iran conflict.

The Strait of Hormuz, which supplies 20% of the global supply, remains disrupted. The risk of the war escalating into a ground invasion further heightens investor concerns, fueling the rise in oil prices.

The conflict involving the US, Israel, and Iran remains a key driver. Disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz have fueled concerns about a supply shock, pushing prices above the psychological $100 level. Some analysts even predict further increases if the conflict escalates further.

While no ground invasion has occurred, there have been small operations involving ground troops. There have been clashes between US and Iranian forces. US special forces entered Iranian territory to begin a rescue mission for a downed pilot.

The Pentagon has reportedly prepared ground operation options, including the possibility of seizing strategic locations, but the US president has not yet approved a large-scale deployment of ground troops. US public support is also very low, below 14%, a crucial factor in managing escalation.

On the other hand, Iran still possesses missile and drone capabilities. The Strait of Hormuz is not yet completely secure, despite the US threatening a larger attack if Iran does not withdraw. However, Iran has been preparing for this war for decades, so US threats have not deterred Iran from surrendering.

OPEC+, as a market balancing factor, eight OPEC+ member countries, including Saudi Arabia and Russia, have begun returning supply to the market at 206,000 barrels per day starting in April 2026. This step was taken to stabilize prices, which were considered excessively high and were beginning to threaten global economic growth.

The latest EIA data shows that US crude oil production remains strong at 13.6 million barrels per day for 2026. Despite global disruptions, the availability of US domestic stocks provides a cushion to prevent prices from spiraling out of control.

XTIUSD is technically in an uptrend, but is starting to show signs of overboughtness on the RSI indicator. The forecast price for the XTIUSD pair is the nearest support at around $104, with the next support target around $102. The nearest resistance is around $115, with the next resistance target around $118. This forecast could be wrong.

XTIUSD D1

The WTI oil price on the daily timeframe is near the upper band. The Bollinger Bands draw an ascending channel with wide band spacing, indicating bullish sentiment and high volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) is below the lower band, drawing an ascending channel, with the price well above the line, indicating a strong uptrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) is below the 50-day moving average (MA), drawing a flat channel, indicating sideways movement over the longer term.

The TDI indicator's VB High is at 83, and its VB Low is at 52. The 31-point difference reflects the volatility value on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line is at 67 with an ascending channel, indicating a greater weighting of bullishness over bearishness.

The RSI Price Line is at 61 with a channel sloping upward, indicating an uptrend.

The Trade Signal Line is at 62 with an ascending channel, indicating an uptrend.

XTIUSD H4

On the H4 timeframe, XTIUSD is near the upper band line. The Bollinger Bands draw a narrow ascending channel with moderate band spacing, indicating a weak uptrend and moderate volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) above the lower band draws a flat channel, with the price above the line, indicating an uptrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) is well below the lower band draws an upward channel, indicating bullish sentiment over the longer term.

The TDI indicator's VB High indicator is at 72, and its VB Low indicator is at 45. The 27-point difference reflects the volatility value on the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base Line is at 58 with an upward channel, indicating a greater bullish bias than bearish bias.

The RSI Price Line is at 68 with an upward channel crossing the TSL and MBL from below, indicating an uptrend.

The Trade Signal Line is at 60 with an upward channel crossing the MBL from below, indicating an uptrend.

 

[radex78]

USD/CAD trades near 4-month high

Yesterday, USD/CAD fell, drawing a bearish candle after the previous day's bullish one. The current price is around 1.39146, down from a high of 1.39479.

Over the week, the USD/CAD movement has tended to be a strong tug-of-war between USD dominance and oil support for the Canadian dollar. Tensions in the Middle East, involving the war between the US, Israel, and Iran, have increased demand for safe-haven assets, which traditionally support a stronger USD. The US-Israel and Iran conflicts have increased risk aversion, increasing demand for the USD. This is the most dominant factor at this time.

The Fed maintained interest rates in the 2.5%-3.75% range at its March 2026 meeting. The latest Non-farm payroll data showed the US an increase of 216,000 jobs, with unemployment at a low 3.9%, reinforcing the Fed's hawkish stance to delay a rate cut.

WTI oil prices are currently hovering around $95 due to supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. Because Canada relies on oil as a major export commodity, rising oil prices have prevented the CAD from weakening further against the USD.

The Canadian economy showed weakness, as evidenced by the Services PMI, which contracted to 47.3. The trade deficit has slowed sharply, putting pressure on the CAD. The Bank of Canada (BoC) is adopting a wait-and-see approach, currently holding interest rates at 2.25%. There is a wide interest rate differential of around 1.25%-1.50% with US interest rates, which encourages investors to hold USD over CAD.

The Canadian economy is adjusting to several trade restrictions from the US, which are expected to reduce Canadian GDP growth to around 1.1% in 2026.

Market sentiment is currently bullish due to the US-Canadian interest rate differential. However, be wary of today's economic data releases from the US and Canada or a sudden spike in oil prices, as the CAD is highly sensitive to energy prices, which could trigger a correction in the CAD's recovery.

USDCAD price forecast: nearest support around 1.3880, with the next support target around 1.3825. Pivot point 1.3920. Immediate resistance is around 1.3965, with the next resistance target around 1.4020. This forecast could be wrong.

USDCAD D1

The USDCAD price movement on the daily timeframe is currently below the upper band line. The Bollinger Bands draw an ascending channel with wide spacing, indicating bullish sentiment and high volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) below the middle band draws an ascending channel; prices above the line indicate an uptrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) above the 50-day moving average (MA) draws a flat channel, indicating sideways movement over the longer term.

The VB High TDI indicator is pointing at 71, and the VB Low is pointing at 39. The 32-point difference reflects the volatility value on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line is pointing at 55 with an ascending channel, indicating a greater weighting of bullishness over bearishness.

The RSI Price Line is pointing at 67 with a descending channel crossing the TSL from above, indicating a downtrend.

The Trade Signal Line is pointing at 69 with an ascending channel, indicating an uptrend.

USDCAD H4

The USDCAD price movement on the H4 timeframe is near the middle band. The Bollinger Bands draw a flat channel with narrow band spacing, indicating sideways movement and low volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) below the middle band draws an ascending channel, with the price above the line indicating a weak uptrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) is well below the lower band draws a slightly ascending channel, indicating bullish sentiment over the longer term.

The TDI indicator's VB High is 86, and its VB Low is 42. The 44-point difference reflects the volatility value on the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base Line is 64 with a descending channel, indicating a greater bearish weight than bullish pressure, suggesting a potential downside.

The RSI Price Line is 47 with a descending channel, indicating a downtrend.

The Trade Signal Line is 53 with a descending channel, indicating a downtrend.

 

[radex78]

NZD/USD Rises Ahead of RBNZ Decision

The NZD/USD commodity currency pair has risen for two days, attempting to recover from the prolonged USD pressure of the past two months. NZD/USD is currently hovering around 0.57286, attempting to recover from a low of 0.56799.

Today is a crucial day for the New Zealand Dollar, as the main agenda item is the RBNZ's interest rate decision. Current market consensus projects that the RBNZ will maintain the Open Currency Restructuring (OCR) rate at 2.25%.

Market focus will be on the accompanying statement. Despite inflationary pressures stemming from the surge in global oil prices due to the Middle East conflict, the RBNZ is expected to remain cautious due to the fragile domestic economic recovery. If the RBNZ signals a future interest rate hike, the NZD could potentially strengthen.

Current global uncertainty due to the US-Israel and Iran wars has influenced global risk sentiment due to energy market volatility. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East support the US Dollar as a safe-haven currency. Since the US-Israel war began, the Dollar-Token Price Index (DXY) has tended to rise, indicating increased demand for the USD, despite high volatility due to the surge in oil prices.

Investors will also be looking forward to the US meeting minutes or employment data, which could strengthen the USD if US inflation remains stubbornly low. Currently, the DXY, which measures the US dollar against six major currencies, is down around 0.31% from 100.156 to a low of 99.603. The USD tends to weaken due to expectations of a de-escalation in the Middle East conflict. Investors remain focused on changes in news on the ground; if the conflict escalates again, the USD could strengthen again.

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) is a commodity currency sensitive to the prices of several key commodities that New Zealand relies on for export, as well as global risks. Dairy products are the biggest influence on New Zealand's commodity market, as New Zealand is the world's largest exporter, primarily contributing to powdered milk, butter, and cheese. Rising dairy prices support the NZD, while falling prices weaken the NZD.

Dairy prices are currently relatively stable, tending to rise slightly, supporting a mild bullish sentiment on the New Zealand dollar. In addition to dairy products, New Zealand also exports meat to China and the US, making it the second largest source of foreign exchange after dairy. Currently, Chinese demand is not yet fully strong, having a neutral effect on the NZD. Other commodities include lumber (logs), crude oil, and gold.

Besides the commodity market, China's economic growth also indirectly impacts the NZD, as China is New Zealand's largest trading partner.

The forecasted nearest NZDUSD support is around 0.5690, with the next support target around 0.5655. The nearest resistance is around 0.5750, with the next resistance target around 0.5785. This forecast could be wrong.

NZDUSD D1

On the daily timeframe, NZDUSD is currently between the middle and lower bands. The Bollinger Bands draw a descending channel with wide spacing, indicating bearish sentiment and high volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) near the upper band draws a downward-curving channel, with the price well below the line, indicating a strong downtrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) below the 50-day moving average (MA) draws a flat channel, indicating sideways movement over the longer term.

The VB High TDI indicator is at 51, and the VB Low is at 32. The 21-point difference reflects the volatility value on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line is at 42 with a descending channel, indicating a greater weighting of bears than bulls.

The RSI Price Line is at 40 with a downward-curving channel crossing the TSL from below, indicating an uptrend.

The Trade Signal Line is at 37 with an upward-curving channel, indicating an uptrend.

NZDUSD H4

On the H4 timeframe, NZDUSD is currently near the upper band. The Bollinger Bands draw a horizontal channel with narrowing band spacing, indicating sideways movement and low volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) near the upper band draws a descending channel, while the price near the MA line indicates a fading downtrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) is well above the upper band draws a descending channel, indicating bearish sentiment over the longer term.

The VB High TDI indicator is at 56, and the VB Low is at 33. The 23-point difference reflects the volatility value on the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base Line is at 44 with an ascending channel, indicating greater bearishness than bullishness, suggesting upside potential.

The RSI Price Line is at 55 with an ascending channel crossing the TSL from below, indicating an uptrend.

The Trade Signal Line is at 48 with an ascending channel, indicating an uptrend.

 

[radex78]

AUDUSD surges amid reports of a two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran

The Australian dollar rose for three consecutive days, reflecting a risk-on market sentiment amid reports of a two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran. The AUDUSD surged to a high of 0.70846 from a low of 0.69656 in response to the news.

The two-week ceasefire, initiated by Pakistan, sparked a return of optimism in global markets. When the threat of war subsides, investors tend to move out of safe-haven assets like the USD and back into currencies that offer high yields or are closely tied to economic growth, such as the AUD.

The ceasefire included an agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which is crucial for global oil flows. This reduced the risk premium on energy commodity prices and eased short-term global inflationary pressures. This weakened demand for the USD as a safe-haven asset, providing room for the AUDUSD to rise.

Although the ceasefire provided positive momentum, the market remained cautious as it was likely temporary. Traders' focus today will be divided between assessing the ceasefire optimism and US economic data, while awaiting inflation or employment data that will provide a reason for the Fed to remain hawkish, which could limit further AUD strength.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is currently on a monetary tightening path. After raising interest rates to 4.1% in March, the market is now closely monitoring domestic inflation. The hawkish stance of RBA officials, who still leave open the possibility of further rate hikes, is a key support for AUD strength.

Economic stabilization in China, Australia's main trading partner, has positively impacted demand for Australian commodities, which in turn supports the AUD.

Stubborn US inflation leaves little room for the Fed to cut interest rates in 2026. This maintains the USD's appeal as a safe-haven asset, especially if global geopolitical tensions escalate.

Based on the current price movement of 0.70470, AUDUSD is expected to remain within the 0.70150-0.71100 price range. The nearest support is around 0.70300, with the next support target around 0.70150. The nearest resistance is around 0.70850, with the next resistance target around 0.71100. This forecast could be incorrect.

AUDUSD D1

On the daily timeframe, AUDUSD is currently between the middle and upper band lines. The Bollinger Bands are drawing a descending channel with wide spacing, indicating bearish sentiment and high volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) is above the middle band, drawing a horizontal channel; prices above the line indicate an uptrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) is well below the lower band, drawing an ascending channel, indicating bullish sentiment over the longer term.

The VB High TDI indicator is showing 63, and the VB Low is showing 37. The 36-point difference reflects the volatility value on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line is pointing at 50 with a horizontal channel, indicating the market is in a neutral position.

The RSI Price Line is pointing at 56, with an ascending channel crossing the TSL and MBL from the downside, indicating an uptrend.

The Trade Signal Line is pointing at 47, with an ascending channel, indicating an uptrend.

AUDUSD H4

On the H4 timeframe, AUDUSD is currently near the upper band. The Bollinger Bands are drawing an ascending channel with wide spacing, indicating bullish sentiment and high volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) below the middle band draws an ascending channel, with the price well above the line, indicating an uptrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) below the upper band draws a flat channel, indicating a longer-term sideways market.

The TDI indicator's VB High indicator is at 74, and its VB Low indicator is at 40. The 34-point difference reflects the volatility value on the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base Line is at 57 with an ascending channel, indicating a greater bullish bias than bearish bias.

The RSI Price Line is at 66 with a descending channel crossing the TSL from the upside, indicating a downtrend.

The Trade Signal Line is at 73 with an ascending channel, indicating an uptrend.

 

[radex78]

Gold Prices Rise Amid Fragile Ceasefire

Gold prices are attempting to recover after a correction amidst the fragile US-Iran ceasefire. Gold prices are currently around $4,770, rising from a low of $4,698.

The situation in the Middle East, particularly tensions between the US and Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, remains a determining factor. News of the ceasefire has dampened demand for safe-haven gold in the past 24 hours, causing prices to correct from their highs.

However, the market remains cautious due to reports of ceasefire violations. Any sudden escalation could immediately impact and trigger aggressive gold buying.

XAUUSD is currently exhibiting highly volatile market conditions due to the pull between geopolitical tensions and crucial US economic data. Tonight, the US will release CPI data, which is a major market driver this week.

If US inflation remains high due to the surge in oil prices stemming from the Middle East conflict, the market will expect the Fed to maintain high interest rates for longer. This could technically strengthen the USD and put pressure on gold prices. If inflation subsides, gold has the potential to gain upward momentum as expectations of interest rate cuts strengthen.

The US dollar index is currently showing a weakening US dollar amid reports of a ceasefire. The DXY is currently at around 98.834, recovering from a low of around 98.525. DXY fluctuations in this zone indicate US dollar strength. As long as the US dollar remains firmly above its psychological level, gold's gains are expected to be limited.

Based on current market conditions, gold is moving in a consolidation phase, but is likely vulnerable to short-term selling pressure before the CPI release.

Gold prices are predicted to move in the range of $4,620-$4,840. The nearest support is around $4,680, with the next support target around $4,620. The nearest resistance is around $4,780, with the next resistance target around $4,840. This forecast could be wrong.

XAUUSD D1

The gold price on the daily timeframe is currently near the middle band. The Bollinger Bands are drawing a descending channel with narrowing band spacing, indicating bearish sentiment and decreasing volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) above the middle band is drawing a slightly downward-curving channel, with prices below the line indicating a downtrend.

The VB High TDI indicator is pointing at 64, and the VB Low at 29. The 35-point difference reflects the volatility value on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line is pointing at 48 with a flat channel, indicating a greater weighting of bears than bulls.

The RSI Price Line is pointing at 49 with an ascending channel crossing the MBL from below, indicating an uptrend.

The Trade Signal Line is pointing at 47 with an ascending channel, indicating an uptrend.

XAUUSD H4

The gold price on the H4 timeframe is currently between the middle and upper bands. The Bollinger Bands are drawing a slight upward bias with narrow band spacing, indicating limited bullish sentiment.

The 50-day moving average (MA) below the middle band is drawing an ascending channel, with prices above the line indicating an uptrend.

The VB High TDI indicator is showing 66, and the VB Low is showing 45. The 21-point difference reflects the volatility value on the 5-hour timeframe.

The Market Base Line is showing 56 with a flat channel, indicating a greater bullish bias than bearish bias.

The RSI Price Line is showing 59 with a slightly downward-curving channel, indicating a downtrend.

The Trade Signal Line is showing 55 with a flat channel, indicating sideways movement.