Daily Analysis Forex Mix

[radex78]

Silver is in a wait-and-see mode, awaiting the continuation of the conditional ceasefire.

Silver remains sideways or under pressure as the market awaits the US-Iran talks in Islamabad, Pakistan. Geopolitical tensions remain a key factor, but they are not always bullish, as the USD and rising yields support the USD and pressure silver. High oil prices drive inflation, and central banks are likely to implement tighter monetary policies.

Silver prices closed last week at 75,642 at FXOpen, moving sideways near the middle band line. Although the US president briefly extended the ceasefire until the end of April to allow room for Iran's nuclear proposal, tensions remain high. The blockade in the Strait of Hormuz has triggered a surge in energy prices, which in turn has driven inflation expectations to remain high, which has impacted central bank interest rate policy, amidst the growing risk of a recession.

Unlike gold, which is purely a safe-haven, silver has been under pressure due to its reliance on the industrial sector. Concerns about an economic slowdown due to the war have caused prices to fall from their January highs to the current consolidation area.

Beyond the war factor, the Silver Institute reports a global supply deficit of 18% this year, or approximately 46.3 million ounces, providing a floor for strong silver prices despite selling pressure from the strengthening USD.

The current dynamics of the US-Iran conflict are in a ceasefire-and-negotiations phase, which theoretically puts pressure on safe-haven assets. However, uncertainty remains high, supporting safe-haven assets. These geopolitical tensions do not have a one-way effect on silver. When conflict escalates, safe-haven assets tend to rise, while when there are hopes for peace, risk-on sentiment increases and puts pressure on safe-haven assets.

This week's market focus is on the FOMC minutes from April 28-29, 2026. The current consensus is that the Fed will likely hold its interest rate at around 3.50%-3.75%, with a very high probability of no change. This is driven by persistently high inflation due to rising energy prices. Despite a strong economy, geopolitical uncertainty is forcing the Fed to be more cautious with its monetary policy. Essentially, the Fed is not yet ready to cut interest rates; there is even a risk of a hawkish stance.

If the Fed is hawkish, this tends to strengthen the USD as US yields rise, which could pressure silver, as silver offers no yield. If the Fed is neutral or tends to hold interest rates with cautious statements, the market is expected to move sideways, and silver will move within a range. Conversely, if the Fed is surprisingly dovish, the USD will fall as US bond yields fall, supporting strong silver gains. This could occur if the Fed talks about an imminent rate cut as inflation is perceived to be starting to decline.

While theoretically, war would lead to a surge in safe-haven assets, the US and Iran's involvement has led to rising oil prices and inflation, leading the Fed to adopt a hawkish stance. This means the Middle East conflict is actually pressuring silver due to the strengthening of the USD, even though it should theoretically rise as a safe-haven asset.

The silver price range is estimated to be within the range of $72.60 to resistance at around $83.00. The market is awaiting news regarding Iran's nuclear proposal today. If Iran rejects the US-required uranium enrichment restrictions, expectations of an end to the ceasefire could trigger a surge in volatility. Be wary of a strengthening DXY, which could pressure silver. This forecast could be wrong.

XAGUSD D1

The silver price on the daily timeframe is near the middle band line. The Bollinger Bands are drawing a slightly ascending channel with narrow band spacing, indicating weak or sideways bullish sentiment and relatively low volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) is below the upper band, drawing a flat channel, with the price below the line indicating a downtrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) is below the lower band, drawing an ascending channel, indicating weak bullish sentiment over the longer term.

The VB High TDI indicator is pointing at 57, and the VB Low at 34. The 23-point difference reflects the volatility value on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line is pointing at 46 with a flat channel, indicating a greater weighting of bears than bulls.

The RSI Price Line is pointing at 46 with a descending channel crossing the TSL from above, indicating a downtrend.

The Trade Signal Line is pointing at 52 with a descending channel, indicating a downtrend.

XAGUSD H4

The silver price on the H4 timeframe is currently below the middle band line. The Bollinger Bands draw a descending channel with relatively wide band spacing, indicating bearish sentiment and relatively high volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) below the upper band draws a horizontal channel, with prices below the line indicating a downtrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) near the middle band draws a descending channel, indicating bearish sentiment over the longer term.

The VB High TDI indicator is at 61, and the VB Low is at 30. The 31-point difference reflects the volatility value on the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base Line is at 46 with a descending channel, indicating a greater weighting of bears than bulls.

The RSI Price Line is at 44 with an ascending channel crossing the TSL from below, indicating an uptrend.

The Trade Signal Line is at 38 with an ascending channel, indicating an uptrend.

 

[radex78]

USD/JPY bullish bias, wary of Japanese intervention

The safe-haven USD/JPY currency pair has recently tended to remain within a stable peak range throughout this week's trading. There are several key points for the USD/JPY pair, including the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision and the possibility of intervention. USD/JPY is currently at 159.398 on the FXOpen chart, slightly down from the high of 159.598 earlier today.

The market is currently awaiting the Fed and Bank of Japan's policy decisions this week, with expectations that both will hold interest rates steady. The Bank of Japan remains cautious about raising interest rates, and a slightly dovish stance is likely to pressure the JPY. Although interest rates are expected to remain unchanged, the market is focused on the Quarterly Outlook Report and signals from Governor Kazuo Ueda. The narrative of a potential rate hike to 1.00% in June is creating a push-pull sentiment for the Yen.

On the other hand, the market is also anticipating the risk of intervention. With prices approaching or breaking the psychological level of 160.00, the risk of verbal or actual intervention from the Japanese Ministry of Finance remains high. Traders are highly wary of overly aggressive yen-selling speculation. This could allow USD/JPY to rise to the psychological level, and a sudden drop could occur if intervention occurs.

On the USD side, focus will shift to the release of US economic data, Consumer Confidence. Market expectations are for 89.4, lower than the previous 91.8. If this figure falls below, the USD could weaken in the short term.

The US-Iran geopolitical situation and oil prices remain in the market focus. Japan, as an energy importer dependent on oil prices, could put pressure on the yen. Although the JPY is also considered a safe-haven currency, this mixed effect causes USD/JPY to tend to be volatile.

This week's FOMC meeting is also of concern to traders. Market consensus strongly predicts the Fed will maintain interest rates in the 3.50%-3.75% range. Traders are eager to hear how the Fed will assess the inflation risk from the supply shock caused by the ongoing conflict. Because the PCE remains above the 2% target, traders speculate the Fed will delay interest rate cuts until late 2026.

The USDJPY range is forecast to move between 157.00 and 160.00, with key support levels around 157.50 and 168.00. Strong resistance is around 159.20 and 160.00. The current structure is slightly bullish but overbought, with the focus on the BoJ's tone, FOMC expectations, and the risk of Japanese intervention. This forecast could be wrong.

USDJPY D1

The USDJPY price movement on the daily timeframe is currently above the middle band line. The Bollinger Bands are drawing a flat channel with narrowing band spacing, indicating sideways movement and decreasing volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) is below the lower band, drawing an upward channel; the price is above the line, indicating an uptrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) is well below the lower band, drawing an upward channel, indicating bullish sentiment over the longer term.

The VB High TDI indicator is pointing at 66 and the VB Low is pointing at 47. The 19-point difference reflects the volatility value on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line is pointing at 56 with a slightly downward channel, indicating bullishness outweighs bearishness and potential downside.

The RSI Price Line is pointing at 54 with a horizontal channel, indicating sideways movement.

The Trade Signal Line is pointing at 53 with a slightly upward channel, indicating a weak uptrend.

USDJPY H4

On the H4 timeframe, USDJPY is currently below the middle band line. The Bollinger Bands draw a flat channel with relatively wide band spacing, indicating sideways movement and relatively high volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) above the lower band draws a slightly upward channel, with the price above the line indicating an uptrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) near the 50-day moving average (MA) draws an upward channel, indicating bullish sentiment over the longer term.

The TDI indicator's VB High is at 63, and its VB Low is at 44. The 19-point difference reflects the volatility value on the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base Line is at 54 with a flat channel, indicating a greater weighting of bullish sentiment than bearish sentiment.

The RSI Price Line is at 50 with a flat channel, indicating sideways movement.

The Trade Signal Line is at 48 with a flat channel, indicating sideways movement.

 

[radex78]

AUDUSD hovers near its peak, awaiting two major news releases.

The Australian dollar, a commodity currency, is currently hovering around 0.71818 on the FXOpen chart, near its previous peak of 0.72217 formed on April 17, 2026. Today, the market is awaiting two major sentiments that could trigger volatility.

Australian inflation data (CPI): The Australian Bureau of Statistics will release first-quarter CPI data today. Previous data showed inflation at 3.7%, still above the RBA's target of 2-3%. If inflation data exceeds expectations, this will encourage the RBA to hold interest rates for longer, supporting AUD strength.

Australia is facing a fuel crisis that has pushed inflation expectations up to 6.6%, according to ANZ-Roy Morgan data. This puts pressure on the RBA not to ease policy.

Another major news release from the US is the Fed's interest rate decision and the FOMC. The current consensus is that the Fed is expected to keep rates steady at 3.50% - 3.75%. However, market focus will be on the Fed's statement, given inflation has risen to 3.3% and geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran remain. A hawkish Fed stance tends to strengthen the USD and pressure the AUD.

War in the Middle East remains a potential wild card. Rising global oil prices typically benefit the AUD, but if risk-off sentiment intensifies, investors will flock to the USD as a safe-haven currency, which could actually depress the AUDUSD. As a commodity currency, the Australian dollar is sensitive to energy prices. Issues related to fuel subsidies in Australia can impact purchasing power and local inflation.

Today is Big Wednesday, and price movements are likely to be volatile, with Australian inflation data predicting strong gains in the Asian session. However, be wary of a reversal in the New York session due to the Fed's announcement.

AUDUSD is expected to trade within the range of 0.7125, the main support level, and 0.7150 as the nearest support target. Key resistance is around 0.7245 and 0.7210 as the nearest resistance targets. This forecast could be incorrect.

AUDUSD D1

On the daily timeframe, AUDUSD is currently below the upper band line. The Bollinger Bands draw an ascending channel with wide band spacing, indicating bullish sentiment and high volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) below the middle band draws a horizontal channel; prices above the line indicate an uptrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) below the lower band draws an ascending channel, indicating bullish sentiment over the longer term.

The VB High TDI indicator is pointing at 58, and the VB Low at 37. The 21-point difference reflects the volatility value on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line is pointing at 52 with a flat channel, indicating a greater weighting of bullishness over bearishness.

The RSI Price Line is pointing at 62 with an ascending channel crossing the TSL from below, indicating an uptrend.

The Trade Signal Line is pointing at 61 with a flat channel, indicating sideways movement.

AUDUSD H4

AUDUSD on the H4 timeframe is above the middle band. The Bollinger Bands are drawing a flat channel with narrow band spacing, indicating range-bound movement and low volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) near the middle band draws a flat channel, indicating sideways movement. The 200-day moving average (MA) below the lower band draws a flat channel, indicating sideways movement over a longer period.

The VB High TDI indicator is pointing at 63, and the VB Low is pointing at 40. The 23-point difference reflects the volatility value on the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base Line is pointing at 52 with a flat channel, indicating a greater bullish bias than bearish bias.

The RSI Price Line is pointing at 56 with a descending channel crossing the TSL from above, indicating a downtrend.

The Trade Signal Line is pointing at 57 with a descending channel, indicating a downtrend.

 

[radex78]

Oil prices surge above $100 amid geopolitical tensions and global supply disruptions

The price of WTI oil has now soared to $105.49 on the FXOpen chart. The market sentiment now is dominated by extreme geopolitical tensions and significant global supply disruptions.

The conflict in the Middle East, which began with the US-Israeli attack on Iran, has effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial route for 20% of the world's oil supply. This has triggered the largest supply disruption in history, with an estimated production loss of up to 18 million barrels per day.

The latest EIA report shows a decline of 6.2 million barrels in US commercial oil stocks. US oil exports reached a record high of over 6 million barrels per day, but this is not enough to offset the global shortage.

At the latest OPEC+ meeting, they only announced a symbolic production increase of 206,000 barrels per day in May. Analysts believe this will have little impact due to the physical constraints on oil distribution outside the Gulf region.

The Fed is currently maintaining interest rates in the 3.50%-3.75% range, in line with market expectations. The Fed stated that rising inflation, driven by rising energy prices and the war in the Middle East, means the Fed is not yet ready to lower rates. They explicitly cited the Iran war and the surge in oil prices, meaning oil is now the primary driver of inflation.

This Fed meeting will be the last for Jerome Powell, who will be replaced by Kevin Warsh. This could lead to changes in future policy, leading to greater market uncertainty. The market reacted to the Fed's decision, with the USD strengthening, bond yields rising, and stocks weakening.

Today's ECB meeting is also expected to maintain interest rates, but inflation driven by energy prices remains a major concern, potentially depressing demand in the long term.

Expert oil price forecasts: Goldman Sachs predicts WTI will be around $83-$87 in Q4 if conditions improve. However, if the conflict continues, prices could be significantly higher. Meanwhile, Citigroup predicts a base case of around $110 in Q2 2026. If the Strait of Hormuz remains disrupted, it could break through the bull case of around $130-$150.

XTIUSD is currently estimated to be within a realistic range of $100-$112, and if further escalation occurs, it could reach $115. This forecast could be wrong.

XTIUSD D1

On the daily timeframe, XTIUSD is currently near the upper band. The Bollinger Bands draw a flat channel with wide spacing, indicating range movement and high volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) is above the lower band, drawing an ascending channel; the price is well above the line, indicating an uptrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) is well below the lower band, drawing a flat channel, indicating sideways movement over a longer period.

The TDI indicator's VB High is at 77, and its VB Low is at 42. The 35-point difference reflects the volatility value on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line is at 59 with a descending channel, indicating bullishness outweighs bearishness, suggesting a potential downside.

The RSI Price Line is at 61, with an ascending channel crossing the TSL from below, indicating an uptrend.

The Trade Signal Line is at 55 with an ascending channel, indicating an uptrend.

XTIUSD H4

The XTIUSD pair is currently outside the upper band on the H4 timeframe. The Bollinger Bands draw an ascending channel with expanding band spacing, indicating bullish sentiment and increasing volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) above the lower band draws a curved channel to the upside, with the price well above the line, indicating an uptrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) above the 50-day moving average (MA) draws a flat channel, indicating sideways movement over the longer term.

The VB High TDI indicator is at 75, and the VB Low is at 53. The 22-point difference reflects the volatility value on the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base Line is at 64 within an ascending channel, indicating bullishness outweighs bearishness, suggesting upside potential.

The RSI Price Line is at 80, with an ascending channel crossing the TSL from below, indicating an overbought uptrend.

The Trade Signal Line is at 72 within an ascending channel, indicating an uptrend.

 

[radex78]

Gold Prices Strengthen as USD Weakens

Gold prices rebounded as the US dollar weakened following warnings of foreign exchange intervention in Japan. Gold prices rose from a low of $4,510 to around $4,646 on the FXOpen chart on Thursday, April 30th. Several banks worldwide are closed today for Labor Day, and the forex market is expected to face transaction declines.

Gold market conditions are likely to show a consolidation phase with bearish pressure in the short term. Fundamental factors influencing gold price movements include current market sentiment dominated by the Fed, which is maintaining high interest rates, limiting gold price rises. The Fed has not signaled a cut because inflation remains high, thus delaying the opportunity for an interest rate cut.

Another factor is the weakening of the Japanese yen, as a strengthening dollar necessitates Japan's foreign exchange intervention to control the exchange rate. As a result, USD/JPY dropped to 155.549. The strengthening of the JPY weakens the USD because Japan sells USD and buys Yen, increasing the supply of USD in the market and increasing demand for JPY. The US Dollar Index (DXY) suddenly dropped from 99.0093 to 98.009. The weakening USD is supporting gold's rebound.

Geopolitical factors in the Middle East remain a significant catalyst, with tensions still high. Technically, this condition supports gold as a safe-haven asset. However, its effect appears to be subdued this time, as it is outweighed by the Fed's interest rate. The surge in oil prices due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the US blockade has had a dual effect: on the one hand, it supports gold as a hedge against inflation, while on the other, it maintains the Fed's hawkish stance, negatively impacting gold.

Gold has fallen approximately 11%-14% from its 2026 peak and is in a short-term consolidation or bearish phase. Gold prices briefly touched a monthly low of around $4,510. Based on the latest data, the gold price is estimated to be in a daily range of $4,376-$4,698, with support at $4,370-$4,450 and resistance at $4,650-$4,700. Key factors for the next gold price movement will depend on the strength of the USD, the Fed's further statement, developments in the US-Iran conflict, and US economic data.

Gold prices are currently being squeezed by two sentiments: their safe-haven stance and the Fed's still-high interest rates. As long as the Fed remains dovish, gold's gains are expected to be limited.

XAUUSD D1

The gold price on the daily timeframe is currently near the lower band. The Bollinger Bands are drawing a flat channel with narrow band spacing, indicating sideways movement and low volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) near the upper band is drawing a descending channel, with the price below the line indicating a downtrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) is well below the lower band, drawing an ascending channel, indicating bullish sentiment over the longer term.

The TDI indicator's VB High is pointing at 56 and VB Low at 29. The 27-point difference reflects the volatility value on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line is pointing at 43 with a flat channel, indicating a greater weighting of bears than bulls.

The RSI Price Line is at 43, with an upward-sloping channel, indicating an uptrend.

The Trade Signal Line is pointing at 42 with a descending channel, indicating a downtrend.

XAUUSD H4

The gold price on the H4 timeframe is above the middle band. The Bollinger Bands are drawing a descending channel with narrowing band spacing, indicating bearish sentiment and decreasing volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) near the upper band draws a descending channel, with the price below the line indicating a downtrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) near the upper band draws a descending channel, indicating bearish sentiment over the longer term.

The VB High TDI indicator is at 51, and the VB Low is at 21. The 30-point difference reflects the volatility value on the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base Line is at 36 with a flat channel, indicating a greater weighting of bears than bulls.

The RSI Price Line is at 51, with an ascending channel crossing the TSL and MBL from below, indicating an uptrend.

The Trade Signal Line is at 46, with an ascending channel crossing the MBL from below, indicating an uptrend.

 

[radex78]

XTI/USD remains highly volatile amid diplomatic deadlock and US-Iran military threats

Oil price volatility remains high, with the ongoing US-Iran conflict causing price fluctuations sensitive to war headlines.

The XTI/USD pair closed at 99.79 on the FXOpen chart at the end of the week and reached a high of 107.61. The combination of diplomatic deadlock and military threats has made price movements highly volatile.

Market sentiment is currently dominated by pessimism regarding the peace negotiations mediated by Pakistan. President Donald Trump publicly rejected Tehran's latest proposal, made in late April. Trump expressed dissatisfaction and maintained the naval blockade that hampers Iranian exports.

In the US, the ceasefire that began on April 8 is facing legal challenges in Washington. The 60-day deadline for the President to go to war without congressional approval just passed on May 1, creating uncertainty about the legality of further US military operations.

Global oil faces supply risks. Iran's production is reported to have fallen by 5% through 2026 due to the blockade. As long as the Strait of Hormuz remains unsafe for unguarded tanker traffic, the risk premium will remain high on oil prices.

The latest update on the US-Iran war shows the situation on the ground is currently on high alert, although technically still in a ceasefire.

The Iranian military has warned that the US will likely attack in the near future in response to the diplomatic deadlock. Washington has begun signaling the option of targeted airstrikes on Iran's nuclear facilities if the economic blockade fails to force Iran to surrender.

The US naval blockade in the Gulf remains active. Trump has called this tactic more effective than bombing, but it continues to trigger Iranian retaliatory threats against commercial vessels in the region.

The price of XTIUSD is estimated at around $100, with support between $89.80 and $94.50. Resistance is estimated at $105.00 to $110. This forecast could be wrong. The market is wary of profit-taking if news suddenly emerges regarding a new round of peace talks.

XTIUSD D1

On the daily timeframe, XTIUSD is below the upper band. The Bollinger Bands draw a flat channel with wide band spacing, indicating a range-bound market sentiment with high volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) is above the lower band, drawing an ascending channel; the price is above the line, indicating an uptrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) is well below the lower band, drawing a flat channel, indicating sideways movement over a longer period.

The TDI indicator's VB High is at 72, and its VB Low is at 43. The 29-point difference reflects the volatility value on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line is at 58 with a descending channel, indicating bullishness outweighs bearishness, suggesting a potential downside.

The RSI Price Line is at 59 with a downward-curving channel, indicating a downtrend.

The Trade Signal Line is at 58 with an ascending channel, indicating an uptrend.

XRIUSD H4

The WTI oil price on the H4 timeframe is below the middle band. The Bollinger Bands are at an ascending channel with wide band spacing, indicating bullish sentiment and high volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) near the lower band draws an ascending channel, with the price above the line indicating an uptrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) below the lower band draws a flat channel, indicating sideways movement over the longer term.

The TDI indicator's VB High is at 77, and its VB Low is at 47. The 30-point difference reflects the volatility value on the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base Line is at 62 with a descending channel, indicating bullishness outweighs bearishness and potential downside.

The RSI Price Line is at 47 with a channel sloping upwards, indicating an uptrend.

The Trade Signal Line is at 53 with a descending channel, indicating a downtrend.

 

[radex78]

The Australian Dollar Falls Ahead of RBA Interest Rate Decision

The AUD/USD currency pair drew a bearish candle after peaking at 0.72277, with the Australian dollar correcting to around 0.71652 on the FXOpen chart at the time of writing.

Today is a crucial moment for the Australian dollar, as the RBA will announce its latest monetary policy. Most economists predict the RBA will raise interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.35%. Domestic inflation, which remains above target, and a tight labor market are the main reasons for this prediction.

The market will be awaiting this crucial moment. If the RBA surprises with a 50 basis point hike, for example, or makes a hawkish statement regarding further increases, the Australian dollar could strengthen sharply. Conversely, if the RBA chooses to hold interest rates, the AUD/USD is at risk of significant selling pressure.

Today, market participants are also awaiting US economic data, with the release of the ISM Services PMI for April. Analysts estimate it will be in the range of 53.8-54.0. The service sector is the backbone of the US economy. If the figures are higher than expected, this will strengthen the narrative that the US economy remains resilient despite high interest rates, which could trigger a strengthening of the USD and suppress the rise of the AUD.

Geopolitical factors are also a concern for the market. The uncertain situation between the US and Iran continues to be closely monitored. These tensions often trigger rising commodity prices, which can cause fluctuations in commodity currencies like the Australian dollar and safe-haven flows like the US dollar. High commodity prices tend to provide fundamental support for the AUD. On the other hand, safe-haven flows amidst tensions tend to be more concentrated in the USD, considered the most liquid currency, supported by persistently high interest rates.

Domestic political conflict in the US is also in the spotlight. The House of Representatives, especially the Democratic Party, is attacking Trump's war policies. The cost of the war, which has already reached $25 billion, is being hotly debated, and the lack of a clear exit plan creates policy uncertainty and potentially disrupts the fiscal and budgetary environment. In the short term, the USD may remain strong, as the war creates risk-off sentiment and the dollar rises as a safe-haven currency. However, in the medium term, it could be negative for the USD if the conflict worsens, the budget deficit expands, confidence in US policy declines, pressure on the Federal Reserve increases, and there are even concerns about the Fed's independence being compromised. This could weaken the USD and increase volatility.

AUDUSD is currently trading at 0.71666, with a normal range of 0.712000 to 0.72000 expected. The market will focus on today's interest rate announcement, and RBA officials' statements on inflation could trigger volatility.

AUDUSD D1

On the daily timeframe, AUDUSD is currently above the middle band. The Bollinger Bands are drawing an ascending channel with narrowing band spacing, indicating bullish sentiment and decreasing volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) near the lower band is drawing a slightly flat channel, with the price above the line still indicating an uptrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) is well below the lower band, drawing an ascending channel, indicating bullish sentiment over the longer term.

The TDI indicator's VB High is pointing to 69, and its VB Low is pointing to 38. The 31-point difference reflects the volatility value on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line is pointing to 53 with a flat channel, indicating a greater weighting of bullish sentiment than bearish sentiment.

The RSI Price Line is pointing to 36 with a slightly flat channel, indicating sideways movement.

The Trade Signal Line is pointing to 39 with a slightly descending channel, indicating a slow downtrend.

AUDUSD H4

On the H4 timeframe, AUDUSD is near the middle band line. The Bollinger Bands draw a flat channel with wide band spacing, indicating sideways movement with high volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) near the middle band draws a flat channel, indicating sideways movement. The 200-day moving average (MA) is slightly below the lower band, drawing a flat channel, indicating sideways movement over a longer period.

The TDI indicator's VB High indicator is pointing at 70, and its VB Low indicator is pointing at 36. The 34-point difference reflects the volatility value on the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base Line is pointing at 53 with a descending channel, indicating bullishness outweighs bearishness, suggesting a potential downside.

The RSI Price Line is pointing at 45 with a channel sloping upwards, indicating an uptrend transition.

The Trade Signal Line is pointing at 52 with a descending channel, indicating a downtrend.

 

[radex78]

NZD/USD tends to move within a range amid Middle East geopolitical tensions and central bank monetary policy.

The NZD/USD commodity currency pair has been trending within a range of 0.58151 to 0.59288 for several weeks. The New Zealand dollar is currently trading at 0.58877 on the FXOpen chart. A bullish candlestick pattern is shown with a high of 0.59057 and a low of 0.58567.

Current market conditions are on high alert due to fluctuations in the Middle East, which are affecting commodity currencies like the NZD. Despite reports of a ceasefire, the recent clash in the Strait of Hormuz, where a US ship fired at an Iranian missile, has sparked fears of a renewed escalation of the war. The NZD, as a risk currency, is likely under pressure due to risk-off sentiment.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is scheduled to release its Financial Stability Report today. Market focus will be on digesting the RBNZ's view on inflation, which is driven by rising global energy prices due to the Middle East conflict. The benchmark interest rate is currently around 2.25%, with speculation of a future increase if inflation persists.

The market is also focusing on today's New Zealand economic data, tied to the employment change and unemployment rate. The latest forecast for employment change is around 0.3%, a low figure indicating weak job growth. The unemployment rate is estimated at around 5.4%, up from the previous 5.4%.

US data shows the Fed maintaining interest rates at 3.50%-3.75% at its last meeting. The strengthening of the USD is driven by its status as a safe-haven amid global uncertainty.

The US-Iran war remains tense. The US government claims the ceasefire agreed on April 7 is technically still holding. However, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth stated that US forces will act aggressively to protect shipping lanes.

On Monday, a US warship reportedly shot down an Iranian cruise missile in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran claimed the US attack targeted civilians. This conflict keeps oil prices high, indirectly pressuring the New Zealand economy and strengthening the USD's appeal as a safe-haven.

The NZDUSD price movement today is expected to be within a realistic range of 0.58000 - 0.59300. The market is likely to move sideways as it awaits important and geopolitically sensitive data. Support is around 0.58200 to 0.58550, and resistance is around 0.59050 to 0.59450. This forecast could be wrong.

NZDUSD D1

The NZDUSD price movement on the daily timeframe is currently near the middle band line. The Bollinger Bands draw an ascending channel with narrowing band spacing, indicating bullish sentiment and decreasing volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) below the middle band draws a descending channel, with prices slightly above the line indicating a weak uptrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) below the 50-day moving average (MA) draws a flat channel, indicating sideways movement over the longer term.

The VB High TDI indicator is pointing at 62, and the VB Low is pointing at 34. The 28-point difference reflects the volatility value on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line is pointing at 48 with an ascending channel, indicating bearishness outweighs bullishness, but there is upside potential.

The RSI Price Line is pointing at 52 with a flat channel, indicating sideways movement.

The Trade Signal Line is pointing at 52 with a flat channel, indicating sideways movement.

NZDUSD H4

The NZDUSD price movement on the H4 timeframe is currently near the middle band line. The Bollinger Bands draw a flat channel with slightly narrowed band spacing, indicating sideways movement and decreasing volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) below the middle band draws a flat channel, with prices near the line indicating sideways movement. The 200-day moving average (MA) below the lower band draws a flat channel, indicating sideways movement over a longer period.

The VB High TDI indicator is at 63, and the VB Low is at 32. The 31-point difference reflects the volatility value on the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base Line is at 48 with a flat channel, indicating a greater weighting of bears than bulls.

The RSI Price Line is at 51 with a downwards sloping channel, indicating a transition to a downtrend.

The Trade Signal Line is at 48 with a flat channel, indicating sideways movement.

 

[radex78]

GBPJPY remains highly sensitive to intervention news.

The GBPJPY cross currency pair is currently hovering around 212.684, moving near the lower band on the FXOpen chart. The price has formed a bearish candle with a long lower wick, reflecting a sharp price decline, followed by buyers attempting to take over.

The most dominant factor currently is Japanese intervention. The Japanese government has intervened to strengthen the Yen. As a result, GBPJPY fell from 216.595 to around 210.434. Volatility has become very high.

The Bank of Japan is currently maintaining interest rates at 0.75%. The market expects the BoJ to begin gradually raising interest rates towards 1.00% in the middle of this year as Japanese inflation begins to creep up to 1.5%.

In the UK, the pound sterling remains strong. The BoE remains hawkish, and UK inflation remains high at 3.6%, making it a good opportunity for the BoE to raise interest rates. The Bank of England (BoE) recently maintained interest rates at 3.75% at its April 30, 2026, meeting.

Governor Andrew Bailey's remarks were hawkish, warning that rising inflation due to surging energy prices may be inevitable, which tends to prolong the BoE's hawkish stance. This provided support for the GBP, which cushioned the decline in GBP/JPY, acting as a bullish support.

Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East increased safe-haven demand. The JPY has historically benefited from its status as a safe-haven currency. However, tensions in the Middle East have also impacted oil prices. Japan, as a major oil importer, is affected, which can weaken the Yen. However, during risk-off sentiment, the Yen can strengthen as a safe-haven.

The market is expected to be highly volatile because two forces currently influence GBP/JPY. The BoE/BoJ interest rate differential, and a weak yen due to economic and energy concerns, are driving bullish sentiment. However, Japanese intervention and safe-haven flows into the Yen support bears on GBP/JPY. The market is currently trending sideways but is volatile.

The GBPJPY price range is estimated to be within the main range of 210.50 to 214.50. Nearest support is around 211.20 to 211.90, and nearest resistance is around 213.50 to 214.20. GBPJPY volatility has been very high recently. This forecast could be wrong.

GBPJPY D1

On the daily timeframe, GBPJPY is currently near the lower band line. The Bollinger Bands draw an ascending channel with wide spacing, indicating bullish sentiment and high volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) above the lower band draws a slightly ascending channel, while prices are slightly below the line, indicating neutral movement. The 200-day moving average (MA) is well below the lower band, drawing an ascending channel, indicating bullish sentiment over the longer term.

The VB High TDI indicator is pointing at 70, and the VB Low is pointing at 41. The 29-point difference reflects the volatility value on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line is pointing at 55 with a flat channel, indicating a greater weighting of bullishness over bearishness.

The RSI Price Line is pointing at 46 with a channel curving upward, indicating an uptrend transition.

The Trade Signal Line is pointing at 50, with a descending channel crossing the MBL from above, indicating a downtrend.

GBPJPY H4

On the H4 timeframe, GBPJPY is between the middle and lower bands. The Bollinger Bands draw a flat channel with relatively narrow band spacing, indicating sideways movement and moderate volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) above the upper band draws a descending channel, with the price slightly below the line, indicating a downtrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) below the upper band draws an ascending channel, indicating bullish sentiment over the longer term.

The TDI indicator's VB High is at 60, and its VB Low is at 25. The 35-point difference reflects the volatility value on the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base Line is at 43 with a descending channel, indicating a greater weighting of bears than bulls.

The RSI Price Line is at 42 with a downward-curving channel, indicating a downtrend.

The Trade Signal Line is at 44 with a downward-curving channel, indicating a downtrend.

 

[allhyipsru]

Nice breakdown. Right now the market feels very sensitive to central bank comments and US data releases, so volatility in major forex pairs could stay high this week. I’m especially watching USDJPY and EURUSD because both pairs are reacting strongly to rate-cut expectations and bond yield movements lately.