Daily Analysis Forex Mix

[radex78]

US and Israel attack Iran, what about oil prices?

WTI oil prices experienced high volatility last weekend as tensions in the Middle East grew increasingly concerning, as a military confrontation became more apparent. XTIUSD rose with a bullish candle with few shadows at the top and bottom. The price formed a high of 67.71, a low of 64.82, and a close of 67.21.

The oil market is currently experiencing extreme volatility due to the major escalation in the Middle East over the weekend. The market opened today with very strong buying pressure (a gap up) due to several key catalysts. The coordinated US and Israeli attack on Iran on Saturday, February 28, 2026, has sparked fears of a massive global supply disruption. Reports of the assassination of Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, have increased the risk of an all-out regional war.

There are intense reports that the Strait of Hormuz, which carries 20% of the world's oil supply, is experiencing disruption or partial closure. This can historically trigger an instant price spike of $15-$20.

Meanwhile, OPEC+ responded at its meeting on Sunday, March 1, 2026. Eight OPEC+ members agreed to increase production by 206,000 barrels per day starting in April to stabilize the market. However, fear far outweighed the potential for a physical supply increase, which would only occur next month.

The US and Israeli attacks on Iran created a risk premium that fueled price spikes, heightening concerns about disruptions to global oil supplies, particularly in the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial global oil transportation route. Some analysts even warned that oil prices could surge to around $90-$100 per barrel if the Strait of Hormuz were closed.

The EIA estimates that global production will increase and offset demand, resulting in lower Brent and WTI prices in its 2026 projections compared to 2025. Before the escalation of the conflict, several fundamental indicators highlighted high US oil inventories and moderate demand pressures, which dampened the potential for a strong price rally. This means that, fundamentally, prices are likely to experience downward pressure in the medium term if geopolitical risks subside or if supply returns to normal.

The escalation of the conflict has the potential to impact Fed policy expectations. High energy prices could delay expectations of an interest rate cut, meaning the USD could remain strong, putting pressure on XTIUSD from a currency perspective.

Due to the dominant geopolitical factors, the Iran conflict, and disruptions to oil logistics, the intraday range of XTIUSD is expected to be highly volatile.

XTIUSD D1

Today's pivot point is around $65.20-$65.45. The WTI price on the daily timeframe is near the upper band. The Bollinger Bands draw an ascending channel with widening band spacing, reflecting bullish sentiment and increased volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) near the lower band draws an ascending channel, with the price well above the line, indicating a strong uptrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) below the middle band draws a flat channel, indicating sideways movement over the longer term.

The TDI indicator's VB High is at 68, and its VB Low is at 51. The 17-point difference reflects the volatility value on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line is at 59 with an ascending channel, indicating a greater bullish weighting than bearish weighting.

The RSI Price Line is at 61 with an ascending channel crossing the MBL from below, indicating an uptrend.

The Trade Signal Line is at 61 with an ascending channel, indicating an uptrend.

XTIUSD H4

On the H4 timeframe, WTI is currently near the upper band. The Bollinger Bands appear to be widening, indicating increased volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) is below the middle band, drawing an ascending channel, with the price well above the line, indicating a strong uptrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) is well below the lower band, drawing an ascending channel, indicating bullish sentiment over the longer term.

The VB High TDI indicator is at 68, and the VB Low is at 41. The 27-point difference reflects the volatility value on the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base Line is at 54 with a descending channel, indicating bullishness is greater than bearishness, and there is potential for a decline.

The RSI Price Line is at 63, with an ascending channel crossing the MBL from below, indicating an uptrend.

The Trade Signal Line is at 55, with an ascending channel crossing the MBL from below, indicating an uptrend.

 

[radex78]

Gold bullish amid escalating conflict in the Middle East

Gold prices experienced high volatility on Monday following the US and Israeli attacks on Iran. Gold prices spiked to $5,418, then swung to $5,260 and closed around $5,341.

Gold is currently in an aggressive bullish phase due to the escalating conflict in the Middle East. Market sentiment today is heavily influenced by escalating tensions between the US, Israel, and Iran, triggering massive capital flows into safe-haven assets.

Reports of military attacks and the failure of nuclear diplomacy pushed gold prices to new psychological levels. Investors anticipate energy supply disruptions, which have historically strengthened gold's appeal as a hedge against inflation.

While the market is monitoring the US employment data due this week, focus has shifted to the FOMC meeting on March 17-18. Expectations of a rate break or even a rate cut due to global uncertainty have kept the US dollar under pressure.

On the other hand, demand for gold remains persistent, with central banks, particularly China and emerging markets, continuing to aggressively accumulate gold reserves in early 2026 as a diversification strategy from USD-based assets.

Meanwhile, major banks such as JPMorgan and BoFA have a medium-term bullish outlook on gold, with prices well above current levels by the end of 2026. This is driven by the accumulation of portfolios in bonds or dollars.

However, volatility risks exist, with some analysts warning that the current gold rally is too story-driven without strong fundamentals, potentially triggering a short-term correction if the risk narrative declines. Recent sharp movements have created high volatility, often followed by technical corrections.

A strong support level for gold prices is estimated at around $5,000, which acts as a psychological zone and short-term baseline. If the USD suddenly strengthens, the price could correct to around $5270. However, if there is negative news from the Middle East, the price could test $5450-$5500.

XAUUSD D1

The gold price on the daily timeframe is currently near the upper band and briefly crossed the line before pulling back. The Bollinger Bands have drawn a slightly bullish channel with wide band spacing, indicating a bullish trend and moderate volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) near the lower band has drawn an upward channel, while the price is well above the line, indicating a strong uptrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) is well below the lower band, drawing an upward channel, indicating bullish sentiment over the longer term.

The TDI indicator's VB High indicator is at 84, and its VB Low indicator is at 43. The 41-point difference reflects the volatility value on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line is at 64 with a flat channel, indicating a greater bullish bias than bearish bias.

The RSI Price Line is at 62 with an upward channel, indicating an uptrend.

The Trade Signal Line is at 59 with an upward channel, indicating an uptrend.

XAUUSD H4

The gold price on the H4 timeframe is below the upper band. The Bollinger Bands have drawn an upward channel with wide band spacing, indicating bullish sentiment and high volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) is below the middle band, drawing an ascending channel, with the price above the line, indicating a strengthening uptrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) is slightly below the lower band, drawing an ascending channel, indicating bullish sentiment over the longer term.

The VB High TDI indicator is at 76, and the VB Low is at 50. The 26-point difference reflects the volatility value on the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base Line is at 63 with a flat channel, indicating a greater bullish weighting than the bearish one.

The RSI Price Line is at 63 with a descending channel crossing the TSL from above, indicating a downtrend.

The Trade Signal Line is at 71 with a flat channel, indicating a fading uptrend.

 

[radex78]

EUR/JPY Amid Escalating Middle East Conflict

The escalating conflict in the Middle East has shaken nearly all financial markets. The EUR/JPY has experienced significant volatility as tensions in the Middle East have escalated since the US and Israeli attacks on Iran. Yesterday, the EUR/JPY drew a bearish candle with a long shadow at the bottom, indicating the strengthening of the JPY due to an influx of safe-haven demand. The price formed a high of 184.328, a low of 182.026, and a close of 183.128.

The escalating conflict in the Middle East has triggered a surge in energy prices. The surge in natural gas prices in Europe has risen almost 50% in the past two days, and Brent oil prices above $80 have put new inflationary pressure on the eurozone. This has led the market to reduce expectations of an interest rate cut by the ECB this year. Despite exposure to energy risks, the latest GDP data showed resilience with growth of 0.3%. However, if the energy crisis persists, the risk of a recession in Germany will again loom over the euro.

The ECB is currently adopting a wait-and-see stance on the deposit rate, which remains at 2.00%. The market views the ECB's policy as more hawkish than the Bank of Japan's. This creates an interest rate differential that favors carry traders, who naturally favor the euro.

Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have increased demand for safe-haven assets, including the Japanese yen, temporarily putting downward pressure on the EUR/JPY. These geopolitical factors can strengthen the JPY when risk appetite increases.

Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Ryoto Himino recently signaled a hawkish stance that gradual interest rate hikes would continue toward the neutral level. Some analysts predict a rate hike of 1.00% from 0.75% at the earliest at the March and April meetings this year. Japanese capital spending reportedly jumped 6.5%, providing a strong case for the Bank of Japan to continue tightening monetary policy.

Softer-than-expected Japanese inflation data reduced the likelihood of a faster rate hike. However, hawkish comments from Fed officials provided technical support for the yen in the short term.

The Eurozone will release its Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices inflation figures today. This data is crucial because it can influence market participants' perceptions of the euro's strength.

Currently, EURJPY is under downside pressure amid the yen's stronger performance relative to the euro amid global uncertainty. The daily range is estimated to be between 181.80 and 183.80. The nearest support is around 182.20, with the next support target around 181.30. The nearest resistance is around 183.95, with the next resistance target around 184.50. This forecast could be wrong.

EURJPY D1

The EURJPY cross price on the daily timeframe is currently below the middle band. The Bollinger Bands draw a flat channel with wide band spacing, indicating range movement and high volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) near the middle band draws a flat channel, with the price slightly below the line indicating a downtrend transition signal. The 200-day moving average (MA) is well below the lower band draws an upward channel, indicating bullish sentiment for the longer term.

The VB High TDI indicator is pointing at 63, and the VB Low is pointing at 38. The 25-point difference reflects the volatility value on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line is pointing at 50 with a downward channel, indicating the trend is in the neutral zone and has potential for a downturn.

The RSI Price Line is pointing at 48 with a downward channel crossing the TSL and MBL from above, indicating a downtrend.

The Trade Signal Line is pointing at 53 with a horizontal channel, indicating a sideways market.

EURJPY H4

On the H4 timeframe, the EURJPY price is moving near the lower band. The Bollinger Bands are drawing a descending channel, with the bands widening, reflecting bearish sentiment and increased volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) below the middle band is drawing a horizontal channel; prices below this line indicate a downtrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) is slightly above the 50-day moving average (MA), drawing a horizontal channel, indicating sideways movement over the longer term.

The TDI indicator's VB High is 76, and its VB Low is 38. The 38-point difference reflects the volatility value on the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base Line is 57 with a descending channel, indicating greater bullishness than bearishness, suggesting a potential downside.

The RSI Price Line is 36 with a channel sloping upwards, indicating a fading downtrend.

The Trade Signal Line is 38 with a descending channel, indicating a downtrend.

 

[radex78]

NZD/USD Recovers After Two Consecutive Days of US Dollar Pressure

The NZD/USD commodity currency pair attempted a strong recovery yesterday amid a broad dollar pullback. The price drew a long-bodied bullish candle with a lower high. The current price formed a high of 0.59554, a low of 0.58359, and a close of 0.58882.

The market is currently focused on the escalating conflict in the Middle East, which has resulted in increased market volatility. The market is currently in a safe-haven mode. The escalating conflict in the Middle East involving the US, Israel, and Iran has sparked global concerns about energy supply disruptions.

The USD, as a safe-haven currency, has received significant capital inflows. On the other hand, the NZD, as a commodity currency, is highly risk-sensitive. Uncertainty and rising oil prices, which have worsened New Zealand's import costs, have pressured the NZD. Since the war began with the US and Israel's attack on Iran, oil prices have gapped up significantly, and gold prices have also surged. However, as the conflict escalated, the US Dollar Index (DXY) strengthened, reaching its highest level for two consecutive days, bringing the DXY to 99.683. Currently, the DXY is correcting around 98.757, indicating widespread USD withdrawals.

The RBNZ recently released its monetary policy statement, which showed stable global inflation data but emphasized mixed global conditions. At its February 2026 meeting, the RBNZ maintained its cash rate at 2.25%, maintaining a dovish tone. Governor Anna Breman indicated that policy would remain accommodative to support the economic recovery, so the likelihood of an interest rate hike in the near future is very small, with the market expecting no hike until the end of 2026.

On the other hand, despite expectations of gradual interest rate cuts by the Fed, strong US economic data and inflationary risks from rising oil prices have led the market to re-price a scenario of prolonged high interest rates.

The surge in crude oil prices has been a drag on the NZD, as New Zealand is a net oil importer. Therefore, rising energy costs worsen the trade balance and put pressure on the domestic economy.

NZDUSD is currently trading at 0.59388, with the nearest support at 0.8840, and the next support target at 0.8700. The nearest resistance is at 0.8980, and the next resistance target at 0.60000. This forecast could be incorrect.

NZDUSD D1

On the daily timeframe, the NZDUSD price is near the lower band. The Bollinger bands have drawn a slightly descending channel and wide spacing, indicating bearish sentiment and high volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) near the lower band has drawn an ascending channel, with the price slightly above the line, indicating an uptrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) below the lower band has drawn a flat channel, indicating a sideways market over the longer term.

The VB High TDI indicator is at 78, and the VB Low is at 42. The 36-point difference reflects the volatility value on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line is at 60 with a flat channel, indicating a greater bullish weighting than bearish.

The RSI Price Line is at 42 with a channel curving upwards, indicating an uptrend transition.

The Trade Signal Line is at 48 with a descending channel, indicating a downtrend.

NZDUSD H4

On the H4 timeframe, NZDUSD is moving across the middle band from the bottom. The Bollinger Bands are drawing a descending channel with wide band spacing, indicating bearish sentiment and high volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) above the middle band is drawing a descending channel; prices below the line indicate a downtrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) above the 50-day moving average (MA) is drawing an ascending channel, indicating bullish sentiment over the longer term.

The VB High TDI indicator is at 61, and the VB Low indicator is at 27. The 34-point difference reflects the volatility value on the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base Line is pointing at 44 with a flat channel, indicating a greater weighting of bears than bulls.

The RSI Price Line is pointing at 51 with an ascending channel crossing the TSL and MBL from the bottom, indicating an uptrend.

The Trade Signal Line is pointing at 40 with an ascending channel, indicating an uptrend.

 

[radex78]

USD/JPY Amidst the Escalating Middle East Conflict

The safe-haven currency pair USD/JPY exhibits unique dynamics amid the Middle East conflict. Both currencies are considered safe havens, but for different reasons and with different impacts.

Amid military tensions in the Middle East, the Yen is typically a sought-after instrument by investors. Strong inflows into the Yen occur due to Japan's status as the world's largest creditor. When risk increases, Japanese investors tend to repatriate their capital from abroad.

During escalating conflicts, the USD/JPY currency pair tends to experience selling pressure, causing the Yen to strengthen against the US Dollar, as the market moves out of riskier assets and into the Yen.

The US Dollar functions as a safe haven and as an asset that benefits from monetary policy. The USD remains the world's most liquid currency. During ongoing conflicts, global institutions require the Dollar for cash reserves. Rising oil prices, which tend to rise, actually benefit the USD because oil is pegged to the USD, which naturally increases demand for the USD, sometimes hampering the Yen's strengthening against the US Dollar.

US interest rates are currently high, above 3.50%, prompting investors to prefer holding funds in USD over JPY, which still has a very low interest rate of 0.75%, even though both are considered safe-haven assets.

Yesterday, the USD/JPY pair drew a bullish candle with shadows at the top and bottom of the candle. The price formed a high of 157.850, a low of 156.451, and a close of 157.546. Although the JPY is a safe-haven currency, if energy prices continue to rise, it is vulnerable.

Since the beginning of the conflict in the Middle East, the USD/JPY pair has become more volatile. A large-scale escalation of war is expected to support the JPY, while a cooling of the situation is expected to re-dominate the US dollar due to its significantly higher yield advantage over the yen.

USD/JPY support is forecast to be around 156.00 if a larger escalation of the war occurs. Resistance is estimated at around 158.80. If US economic data suddenly strengthens, with the 160.00 level remaining a psychological area vulnerable to Japanese government intervention. This forecast could be wrong. Today, the US will release important economic data that could be a driver of both the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) and retail sales and jobless claims.

USDJPY D1

On the daily timeframe, USDJPY is below the upper band. The Bollinger Bands draw a flat channel with wide spacing, indicating range movement with high volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) above the middle band draws a flat channel, with the price above the line indicating an uptrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) below the lower band draws an ascending channel, indicating bullish sentiment over the longer term.

The TDI indicator's VB High indicator is at 65, and its VB Low indicator is at 31. The 34-point difference reflects the volatility value on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line is at 48 with a flat channel, indicating a greater bearish weight than bullish.

The RSI Price Line is at 60 with a flat channel, indicating a sideways market.

The Trade Signal Line is at 59 with an ascending channel, indicating an uptrend.

USDJPY H4

On the H4 timeframe, the safe-haven USDJPY pair is hovering between the middle and upper bands. The Bollinger Bands draw an ascending channel, with narrowing band spacing, indicating bullish sentiment and weakening volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) below the lower band draws an ascending channel, while prices well above it indicate an uptrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) is well below the lower band draws a descending channel, indicating bearish sentiment over the longer term.

The TDI indicator's VB High indicator is at 72, and its VB Low indicator is at 48. The 24-point difference reflects the volatility value on the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base Line is at 60 with a flat channel, indicating a greater bullish bias than bearish bias.

The RSI Price Line is at 56 with a downward-curving channel, indicating a downtrend.

The Trade Signal Line is at 55 with an ascending channel, indicating an uptrend.

 

[radex78]

Oil prices surge amidst Middle East turmoil

The Middle East war has caused turmoil in financial markets. WTI oil prices have surged dramatically above $85 in response to military tensions between the US, Israel, and Iran. Chart data on Friday (XTIUSD) shows prices reaching a high of $89.59, a low of $77.05, and a close of $88.95.

Attacks targeting several oil facilities in the Gulf and disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz are the main drivers. Reports indicate that more than 200 tankers are stuck, sparking fears of a supply loss of up to 20 million barrels per day if the waterway is completely closed. However, Iran currently insists the Strait of Hormuz is open with special protocols.

The Middle East war, which began on February 28th between the US and Israel, is still ongoing, and the conflict has involved several countries, indirectly affected by Iran's attacks on US military facilities in neighboring countries. The risk of regional war is very high, with the most immediate impact being seen in oil prices and financial markets.

Some analysts predict that if the conflict escalates into a major regional war involving other countries or militia groups in Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon, the greatest risk is disruption to the Strait of Hormuz, which carries 20% of global oil trade. Oil prices are feared to soar to $100-$120 per barrel due to supply disruptions and heightened volatility.

However, if the conflict is limited, the war continues but does not escalate widely, only involving airstrikes, drone strikes, and proxy wars. There is no major disruption to oil routes, and the impact is expected to be a risk premium, with oil prices forecast at around $85-$100. If diplomatic pressure from countries like China or the UN leads to a ceasefire, the market is expected to adjust quickly as the risk premium disappears, and oil could fall back to $70-$80.

At an emergency OPEC+ meeting last week, eight member countries, including Saudi Arabia and Russia, agreed to gradually increase production starting in April by 206 million barrels per day. However, the market remains skeptical whether this increase will be enough to offset disruptions in the Middle East. Global oil demand in 2026 is expected to increase by around 1.2-1.4 million barrels per day, driven by emerging markets like India and Southeast Asian countries, which have a positive impact on fundamental demand.

The latest US inventory report shows an increase in crude oil stocks of 3.47 million barrels. Under normal circumstances, this would be bearish, but it is currently overshadowed by dominant geopolitical sentiment.

Despite the bullish outlook for oil, several factors could weigh on prices, including increased global production from the US, Brazil, and Guyana, and the potential for short-term oversupply if the conflict subsides, which could lead to a correction after a sharp rally.

The forecast for WTI oil support is in the $80-$83 range, with resistance in the $95-$100 range, with short-term upside targets and psychological levels if the escalation in the Strait of Hormuz worsens. This forecast could be wrong.

XTIUSD D1

The current XTIUSD oil price on the daily timeframe is outside the upper band. The Bollinger bands are widening, reflecting the sharp increase in volatility since the US-Israel-Iran war began.

The 50-day moving average (MA) is near the middle band, forming a flat channel. Prices well above this line indicate a strong uptrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) is above the middle band, drawing a flat channel, indicating sideways movement over the longer term.

The TDI indicator's VB High indicator is at 77, and its VB Low indicator is at 48. The 29-point difference reflects the volatility value on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line is pointing at 63 with an ascending channel, indicating a greater bullish bias than bearish bias.

The RSI Price Line is pointing at 86 with an ascending channel crossing the MBL and TSL from below, indicating an overbought uptrend.

The Trade Signal Line is pointing at 73 with an ascending channel crossing the MBL from below, indicating an uptrend.

XTIUSD H4

WTI oil prices on the H4 timeframe are outside the upper band. Bollinger bands appear to be expanding, reflecting a sharp increase in volatility over the weekend.

The 50-day moving average (MA) near the lower band draws an upward channel, while prices well above it indicate a strong uptrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) is slightly below the lower band draws an upward channel, indicating bullish sentiment over the longer term.

The TDI indicator's VB High indicator is at 84, and its VB Low indicator is at 59. The 25-point difference reflects the volatility value on the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base Line is at 71 within an upward channel, indicating a greater bullish bias than bearish bias.

The RSI Price Line is at 83, with an upward channel crossing the MBL and TSL from below, indicating an overbought uptrend.

The Trade Signal Line is at 73 within an upward channel, indicating an uptrend.

 

[radex78]

XAU/USD remains stable above the $5,000 level amid the Middle East conflict

Gold prices tend sideways despite pressure from a strengthening US dollar. Yesterday, gold prices drew a bearish candle with a long wick at the bottom of the candle. Gold prices formed a high of $5,196, a low of $5,015, and a close of $5,138.

In recent days, the US dollar has strengthened, and US bond yields have risen, putting pressure on gold prices. When the US dollar is strong, gold becomes more expensive for holders of other currencies, reducing demand. Furthermore, market expectations that the Fed will not immediately cut interest rates also limited gold's gains.

The conflict between Iran and the US-Israel has triggered an oil price spike to $119 per barrel, increasing the risk of global inflation and economic uncertainty. Historically, such geopolitical conditions typically increase demand for safe-haven assets like gold, thus supporting gold and limiting further declines.

The market is currently awaiting the release of important US data, such as the February CPI, which will be released this week. Current market expectations suggest that the Fed's next interest rate cut will likely be pushed back to September 2026 due to the risk of resurgent inflation driven by energy prices. Remaining high interest rates tend to limit the appreciation of non-yielding gold.

The US dollar index is currently hovering around 98.734 and has reached a high of 99.69. A weakening US dollar index tends to be negatively correlated with gold, supporting gains when the DXY falls. Conversely, when the DXY rises, this tends to depress gold prices.

Issues in the Middle East remain a hot topic that can influence market volatility. The impact of US-Israeli attacks on targets in Iran and Iran's retaliation have been key drivers of increased demand for safe-haven assets. The surge in oil prices due to supply disruptions from the Strait of Hormuz has further fueled the demand for safe-haven assets.

Poland is currently reportedly considering selling gold as an option to increase military spending by around 4.8% of GDP due to security threats in Eastern Europe, particularly the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Poland has been one of the largest gold buyers in recent years and holds reserves of around 550 tons.

Despite widespread reports, several officials have emphasized that this plan is still under political and legal discussion, and that there is even the option of using gold profits rather than selling the gold outright.

Technically, gold is currently in a consolidation phase after experiencing a correction from its highs around $5,400-$5,500. The nearest support is estimated at around $5,000, with the next support target at around $4,937. This prediction could be wrong.

XAUUSD D1

The current gold price on the daily timeframe is above the middle band line. The Bollinger bands draw a slightly upward channel with narrowing band spacing, indicating a fading uptrend and decreasing volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) near the lower band draws an upward channel; prices above the line indicate an uptrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) is well below the lower band, drawing an ascending channel, indicating bullish sentiment over the longer term.

The VB High TDI indicator is pointing to 82, and the VB Low is pointing to 40. The 42-point difference reflects the volatility value on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line is pointing to 61 with a descending channel, indicating greater bullishness than bearishness, and potential downside.

The RSI Price Line is pointing to 54 with an ascending channel, indicating a weak uptrend.

The Trade Signal Line is pointing to 55 with a descending channel, indicating a downtrend.

XAUUSD H4

The gold price on the H4 timeframe is currently above the middle band line. The Bollinger Bands are drawing a horizontal channel with narrow band spacing, indicating range-bound movement and low volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) near the upper band is drawing a horizontal channel; prices below the line indicate a downtrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) near the lower band is drawing an ascending channel, indicating bullish sentiment over the longer term.

The VB High TDI indicator is pointing to 64, and the VB Low is pointing to 32. The 32-point difference reflects the volatility value on the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base Line is pointing to 48 with a descending channel, indicating a greater bearish bias than bullish bias.

The RSI Price Line is pointing to 48 with a channel curving upwards, indicating an uptrend.

The Trade Signal Line is pointing to 46 with a flat channel, indicating sideways movement.

 

[radex78]

AUD/JPY extends gains to 112.846, a multi-year high.

The AUD/JPY cross pair rose for two consecutive days after a week-long consolidation. Yesterday, the AUD/JPY drew a long-bodied bullish candle with virtually no shadow. The price formed a high of 112.846, a low of 111.289, and a close of 112.504.

The main factor driving the AUD/JPY's rise is the differential in Australian and Japanese interest rates. The Reserve Bank of Japan (RBA) recently raised interest rates to around 3.85% to control inflation in February 2026. Recent data shows stable wage growth at 3.1% year-on-year, giving the RBA room to monitor the impact of the increase without rushing into additional tightening.

Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) remains very cautious about raising interest rates and may delay the next increase until mid-2026. The BoJ interest rate is currently at 0.75%, its highest level in 30 years. Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino emphasized yesterday that the Japanese economy is beginning to show sustainable inflation dynamics.

This difference in yields between the RBA and the BoJ has prompted investors to engage in carry trades, borrowing cheap yen to buy the higher-yielding AUD, thus supporting the rise in AUD/JPY.

The Westpac Consumer Confidence Index rose slightly to 91.6 in March. However, short-term concerns remain due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and rising energy prices, which could depress purchasing power.

The Japanese yen remains under pressure due to the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) slow pace of interest rate hikes. Japan is also heavily dependent on energy imports, so rising oil prices put pressure on the economy. Even in times of global conflict, the yen is no longer its former safe-haven status. This situation has caused the JPY to weaken against many currencies, including the Australian Dollar (AUD).

Today, market focus is expected to be on the release of economic data from China, Australia's main trading partner, and developments in global energy prices.

AUD/JPY is currently trading around 112.500. The short-term trend indicates consolidation with a moderate bullish trend, but is being held back by global risk-off sentiment. The estimated nearest support is around 111.80, with the next support target around 111.40. The nearest resistance is around 113.10, with the next resistance target around 113.50. This forecast could be wrong.

AUDJPY D1

On the daily timeframe, AUDJPY is currently near the upper band line. The Bollinger Bands tend to draw an ascending channel with moderate band spacing, indicating bullish sentiment and relatively high volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) near the lower band draws an ascending channel, with the price well above the line, indicating an uptrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) is well below the lower band draws an ascending channel, indicating bullish sentiment over the longer term.

The VB High TDI indicator is pointing at 70, and the VB Low is pointing at 53. The 17-point difference reflects the volatility value on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line is pointing at 62 with a descending channel, indicating greater bullishness than bearishness, suggesting potential downside.

The RSI Price Line is pointing at 67, with an ascending channel crossing the TSL and MBL from below, indicating an overbought uptrend.

The Trade Signal Line is pointing at 62 with a flat channel, indicating sideways movement.

AUDJPY H4

On the H4 timeframe, AUDJPY is near the upper band line. The Bollinger Bands draw an ascending channel with expanding band spacing, indicating bullish sentiment and increased volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) near the middle band draws a flat channel. The price is well above the line, indicating a strong uptrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) below the lower band draws an ascending channel, indicating bullish sentiment over the longer term.

The TDI indicator's VB High indicator is at 66, and its VB Low indicator is at 37. The 29-point difference reflects the volatility value on the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base Line is at 52 with a flat channel, indicating a greater bullish weighting than the bearish weighting.

The RSI Price Line is at 68 with a downward-curving channel, indicating a downtrend.

The Trade Signal Line is at 65 with an ascending channel, indicating an uptrend.

 

[radex78]

GBP/JPY rises despite the Middle East conflict supporting safe-haven currency

The GBP/JPY cross showed bullish sentiment during the trading session on Wednesday, March 11th. The price drew a long bullish candle with almost no shadow. The price formed a high of 213,301, a low of 211,928, and a close of 213,216.

The bullish sentiment in the GBP/JPY pair indicates a weaker JPY despite the Middle East conflict, supporting the JPY, which is considered a safe-haven currency. Rising oil prices due to geopolitical conflicts have increased global inflation. Japan, which relies heavily on energy imports, is being hurt by rising oil prices, which weaken the yen.

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) is expected to hold interest rates at around 0.75% at its March meeting, although a hike to around 1% by mid-2026 is possible. The expected very gradual tightening means the interest rate differential with the UK remains large, thus maintaining the yen's weakness. However, verbal intervention by the Japanese government, which remains wary of excessive currency volatility, has made market participants cautious about possible intervention.

In the UK, geopolitical conflicts driving up energy prices could keep inflation high, so the Bank of England (BoE) is expected to maintain high interest rates for longer. Some traders are even starting to predict a possible interest rate hike in late 2026 if inflation remains high. This supports the GBP's relative strength against the JPY.

UK GDP projections for 2026 are in the low range of around 1.0%. This projection limits GBP's strength.

Technically, the GBP/JPY daily range is estimated at 210.80-214.00. The nearest support is around 210.80; the next support is around 210.20. The nearest resistance is around 213.30, and the next resistance is around 214.00. This forecast could be wrong.

GBP/JPY D1

On the daily timeframe, GBPJPY is currently near the upper band line. The Bollinger Bands are drawing an ascending channel with widening band spacing, indicating mild bullish sentiment with increasing volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) is above the middle band, drawing a flat channel; prices above the line indicate an uptrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) is well below the lower band, drawing an ascending channel, indicating bullish sentiment over the longer term.

The VB High TDI indicator is pointing at 63, and the VB Low is pointing at 37. The 26-point difference reflects the volatility value on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line is pointing at 50 with a flat channel, indicating market sentiment is likely neutral.

The RSI Price Line is pointing at 62, with an ascending channel crossing the MBL from below, indicating an uptrend.

The Trade Signal Line is pointing at 56, with an ascending channel crossing the MBL from below, indicating an uptrend.

GBPJPY H4

On the H4 timeframe, GBPJPY is near the upper band. The Bollinger Bands are drawing an ascending channel with widening band spacing, indicating bullish sentiment and moderate volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) above the lower band draws a slight upward channel, with the price well above the line, indicating a strong uptrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) below the 50-day moving average (MA) draws a flat channel, indicating sideways movement over the longer term.

The TDI indicator's VB High indicator is pointing at 74, and its VB Low indicator is pointing at 44. The 30-point difference reflects the volatility value on the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base Line is pointing at 59 within an upward channel, indicating a greater bullish bias than bearish bias.

The RSI Price Line is pointing at 71 within an upward channel, indicating an overbought uptrend.

The Trade Signal Line is pointing at 70 within an upward channel, indicating an uptrend.

 

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USD/CAD Awaits Important Data Releases from Both Countries

The USD/CAD commodity currency pair yesterday drew a bullish candle with a long body and virtually no shadows. The price formed a high of 1.36380, a low of 1.35766, and a close of 1.36378.

Today's market sentiment is expected to be influenced by the release of important economic data from both the US and Canada, which has the potential to trigger volatility.

Today, Canada will release its unemployment rate and employment change data for February. Current consensus suggests the unemployment rate is predicted to remain stable at 6.8%-6.7%. Stronger-than-expected employment figures usually tend to support the CAD.

As a commodity currency, the CAD is gaining support from rising oil prices, with WTI currently trading in the range of $87-$95 per barrel. Geopolitical tensions in the Strait of Hormuz are the main catalyst keeping oil prices high, thus limiting USD/CAD's gains.

The market is beginning to see the possibility of a more hawkish stance from the Bank of England (BOC) due to inflation from high energy prices. If these expectations strengthen, they could support the CAD.

Traders will focus on the Personal Income and Spending data, as well as the previously released preliminary inflation (CPI) data of 0.3%, which has led the market to speculate that the Fed will be cautious in lowering interest rates.

The US dollar remains a safe haven amid geopolitical instability, although global uncertainty continues to make the USD a sought-after asset. Therefore, USDCAD movements are likely to be in a consolidation phase or a limited rebound.

Today is expected to be a volatile day for USDCAD due to the release of Canadian jobs data and US consumer sentiment. The price range is estimated to be around 1.35500-1.36500.

USDCAD D1

On the daily timeframe, USDCAD is currently below the middle band line. The Bollinger Bands draw a flat channel with slightly narrowed band spacing, indicating range-bound movement and slightly decreased volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) above the middle band draws a flat channel; prices below the line indicate a downtrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) above the upper band draws a flat channel, indicating sideways movement over the longer term.

The VB High TDI indicator is at 56, and the VB Low is at 30. The 26-point difference reflects the volatility value on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line is at 43 with a flat channel, indicating a greater bearish weighting than bullishness.

The RSI Price Line is at 49 with a channel sloping upward, indicating an uptrend.

The Trade Signal Line is at 44 with a flat channel, indicating sideways movement.

USDCAD H4

On the H4 timeframe, the USDCAD pair is near the upper band. The Bollinger Bands draw an ascending channel with widened band spacing, indicating bullish sentiment and increased volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) near the upper band draws a descending channel; prices above the line indicate an uptrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) above the 50-day moving average (MA) draws a slightly descending channel, indicating weak bearish sentiment over the longer term.

The TDI indicator's VB High is at 57, and its VB Low is at 32. The 25-point difference reflects the volatility value on the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base Line is at 44 within an ascending channel, indicating greater bearishness than bullishness, suggesting upside potential.

The RSI Price Line is at 61 within an ascending channel, indicating an uptrend.

The Trade Signal Line is at 54 within an ascending channel, indicating an uptrend.