Daily Analysis Forex Mix

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GBP/USD shows interesting market dynamics at the beginning of 2026.

In general, the pound sterling is trying to maintain its recovery momentum against the US dollar, which tends to move steadily but limitedly. Prices on January 2, 2026, showed the market forming a high of 1.35020, a low of 1.34339, and a close of 1.34460. GBPUSD drew a bearish candle with a longer wick at the top of the candle body.

The market has now entered 2026 with liquidity conditions beginning to normalize after the year-end holidays. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the USD's performance against six major currencies, was observed in the range of 98.145-98.494, indicating moderate strength but overshadowed by expectations of a Fed interest rate cut this year.

Investors will focus on the resilience of the UK economy following last year's global turmoil. Consumer credit data from the Bank of England (BoE), released today, will be an early indicator of the strength of domestic consumption.

On the other hand, the USD remains supported by its safe-haven status, but there is pressure from the de-dollarization narrative and the upcoming leadership change at the Federal Reserve. Speculation regarding Jerome Powell's replacement is currently intense, as his term expires in May 2026.

President Donald Trump has indicated that he will announce his choice in January 2026. Two names frequently mentioned as top choices are Kevin Hasset, currently serving as Director of the National Economic Council (NEC) in the Trump administration. He is a close Trump ally and has openly supported a more aggressive interest rate cut policy.

Another name is Kevin Warsh, a former member of the Fed Board of Governors (2006-2011). Who has a stellar reputation on Wall Street and is known to be critical of Powell's policies, which he considers too slow in adjusting the central bank's balance sheet.

Market pricing is expected to continue to incorporate the Fed's policy divergence with the Bank of England (BoE). The Fed is likely to gradually cut interest rates, while the BoE is also in easing mode due to the weakening UK economy. This divergence tends to exert two-way pressure, but could provide some technical support to the GBP amid a weakening US dollar.

UK economic data shows signs of weakness, with the potential for rising unemployment and stagnant economic growth this year. This could be a negative factor for the GBP in the short to medium term.

Based on existing fundamental data, the market is expected to have potential for range-sideways-bearish movement, with a bias dependent on this week's data. Key fundamental events that could potentially influence GBP/USD this week and attract trader attention include the ISM Manufacturing PMI, ADP jobs, ISM services PMI, JOLTS, and NFP.

The forecasted GBPUSD price range includes the nearest support area around 1.3400, which will be tested at the end of December 2025. Critical support is the lower limit around 1.3000. A break below this level has the potential to change the trend to bearish with a support target of 1.2780.

GBPUSD D1

The GBPUSD price movement on the daily timeframe is above the middle band. The Bollinger Bands draw an ascending channel with relatively wide band spacing, reflecting bullish sentiment and moderate volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) near the lower band draws a horizontal channel, with the price well above the line, indicating an uptrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) below the middle band draws an ascending channel, indicating bullish sentiment over the longer term.

The VB High TDI indicator is at 73, and the VB Low is at 39. The difference of 34-point reflects the volatility value on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line is at 56 with an ascending channel, indicating greater bullishness than bearishness, and potential upside.

The RSI Price Line is at 60 with a descending channel, crossing the TSL from above, indicating a downtrend.

The Trade Signal Line is at 65 with a downward sloping channel, indicating a downtrend.

GBPUSD H4

The GBPUSD price movement on the H4 timeframe is below the middle band line. The Bollinger Bands draw a flat channel with relatively narrow band spacing, indicating range-bound market movement and relatively low volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) near the middle band draws an ascending channel; prices below the line indicate a downtrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) well below the lower band draws an ascending channel, indicating bullish sentiment over the longer term.

The TDI indicator's VB High indicator is at 64, and its VB Low indicator is at 39. The difference of 25-point reflects the volatility value on the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base Line is at 51 with a descending channel, indicating a greater bullish bias than bearish bias, suggesting potential downside.

The RSI Price Line is at 44 with a descending channel, indicating a sideways market.

The Trade Signal Line is at 45 with an ascending channel, indicating an uptrend.

 

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Gold Rises Amid Significant Geopolitical Escalation

Gold prices began the week on Monday, January 5, 2026, by drawing a long-bodied bullish candle with almost no shadow. The price formed a high of $4455, a low of $4305, and a close of $4446. The main factors driving the market today were tensions in Latin America and US economic data.

The conflict between the US and Venezuela entered a new phase following reports of US military aggression in Venezuela and the arrest of President Nicolas Maduro. As a safe-haven asset, gold has become a primary investor destination amid concerns about disruptions to global oil supplies and regional stability.

The market has been digesting US economic data from the start of the year. Focus is on the Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) data due this week, as well as speculation about the direction of the Federal Reserve interest rate in 2026. The decline in real bond yields has been a catalyst for gold.

The de-dollarization trend and massive gold purchases by global central banks, particularly the BRICS bloc, continue to provide structural support for high gold prices. The People's Bank of China (PBOC) remained the largest gold buyer until early January 2026. China has consistently been the largest gold buyer in recent years. This strategy is part of an effort to reduce dependence on the US dollar. China's gold reserves currently exceed 2,200 tons.

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) ranks second as an active gold buyer. The RBI continues to add to its gold reserves monthly. In January 2026, India's gold reserves reportedly exceeded 800 tons, considered a vital instrument for the RBI in maintaining the stability of the rupee amid global market volatility.

The Central Bank of Turkey frequently alternates with China and India as the largest monthly gold buyer. Their primary focus is using gold as a hedge against high domestic inflation and the weakening of the Lira.

The Central Bank of Poland has become one of the most aggressive gold buyers in Europe. The Governor of the Central Bank of Poland has stated a strategic target of increasing the proportion of gold to 20% of its total foreign exchange reserves for reasons of national security and financial stability.

Gulf countries, led by the United Arab Emirates, are drastically increasing their gold reserves, reaching 26% by 2025. This marks a strategic shift for oil-rich countries to diversify assets from paper-based assets to physical assets.

The main motivations for central banks to buy gold are de-dollarization, protection against economic sanctions, such as those imposed on Russia, and anticipation of long-term inflation.

The current gold price is in the range of $4,350-4,450 per troy ounce, with an estimated daily range of $4,310-$4,510. The correction support area is around $4,313, with the next support around $4,254. The resistance currently being tested is around $4,509, with the next resistance at $4,576 if geopolitical tensions escalate.

XAUUSD D1

The gold price on the daily timeframe is between the middle and upper bands. The Bollinger Bands draw an upward channel with relatively wide band spacing, indicating bullish sentiment and relatively high market volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) near the lower band draws an upward channel; prices well above the line indicate an uptrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) well below the lower band draws an upward channel, indicating bullish sentiment over the longer term.

The VB High TDI indicator is pointing at 78, and the VB Low is pointing at 47. The difference of 31-point reflects the volatility value on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line is pointing at 63 with a flat channel, indicating greater bullishness than bearishness, and potential sideways movement.

The RSI Price Line is pointing at 58 with a channel sloping upwards, indicating an uptrend transition.

The Trade Signal Line is pointing at 63 with a descending channel, indicating a downtrend.

XAUUSD H4

The gold price on the H4 timeframe has crossed the 50-day moving average (MA50) from downside. The price is currently near the upper band. The Bollinger bands appear to be expanding, indicating increased price volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA50) below the upper band draws a flat channel, with the price slightly above the line, indicating an uptrend. The 200-day moving average (MA200) below the lower band draws an upward channel, indicating a longer-term bullish sentiment.

The TDI indicator's VB High indicator is at 68, and its VB Low indicator is at 25. The difference of 43-point reflects the volatility value on the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base Line is at 47 with a downward channel, indicating a greater bearish weighting than bullishness, indicating potential downside.

The RSI Price Line is at 60, with an upward channel crossing the MBL from below, indicating an uptrend.

The Trade Signal Line is at 56, with an upward channel crossing the MBL from below, indicating an uptrend.

 

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AUD/JPY tends to be bullish amid monetary policy divergence

The price movement of the cross pair AUD/JPY tended to be bullish throughout 2025. The upward trend continued into early January 2026. Yesterday, AUD/JPY still drew a moderate bullish candle, extending the previous day's gains. The price formed a high of 105.598, a low of 104.820, and a close of 105.633.

The bullish sentiment in AUD/JPY is driven by several factors: Monetary policy divergence between the RBA and the BoJ. The RBA tends to maintain a tighter stance than the BoJ. While the BoJ is starting to move away from its negative interest rate policy, Australian interest rates still offer much higher yields, making them attractive to carry traders.

The AUD is a commodity currency considered a pro-risk currency, or a currency that follows the flow of risk-on sentiment. With the rally in the global energy and financial sectors in early 2026, demand for the AUD increased. Conversely, the JPY, a safe-haven currency, tends to weaken when the market is optimistic. As a major commodity exporter, rising energy and mineral prices in early January provided additional support for the Australian dollar.

Governor Ueda's recent hawkish remarks signaled that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) is ready to raise interest rates further if economic and inflation trends align with projections. This tends to strengthen the yen and temporarily curb the AUD/JPY's rise to around 105.00. Despite the signal for a rate hike, the market is still closely monitoring Japan's fiscal conditions and economic outlook, which some analysts consider fragile, which could limit the yen's strength in the medium term.

The Australian dollar remains supported by expectations that interest rates in Australia will remain high or even rise to combat inflation. The RBA and BoJ interest rate spread remains a key attraction for market participants. As China's main proxy currency, the AUD is highly sensitive to Chinese economic data. Today's focus is also on the release of China's Foreign Exchange Reserves data, which could provide insight into the economic strength of Australia's main trading partner.

Several global data points indirectly impacting the AUDJPY today through risk sentiment: the US ISM Services PMI, ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, and the JOLTS Jon Opening, which can influence global risk sentiment. Today's Australian CPI data is also a key driver of the AUDJPY pair.

AUDJPY Price Range Forecast: First support is around 104.80, the first resistance level if a technical correction occurs. Second support is around 104.20, a strong lower boundary to maintain the uptrend. Immediate resistance is around 105.75, the closest resistance level, and second resistance is around 106.15, the maximum strengthening target if risk sentiment is very strong.

AUDJPY D1

The current price of the AUDJPY pair on the daily timeframe is near the upper band. The Bollinger Bands tend to draw an ascending channel with moderate band spacing, indicating bullish sentiment and moderate market volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) near the lower band draws an ascending channel; prices well above the line indicate a strong uptrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) well below the lower band draws an ascending channel, indicating bullish sentiment over the longer term.

The VB High TDI indicator is at 71, and the VB Low is at 55. The difference of 16-point reflects the volatility value on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base line is at 63 with an ascending channel, indicating greater bullishness than bearishness, and potential upside.

The RSI Price Line is at 67 with a channel sloping upwards across the TSL, indicating an uptrend.

The Trade Signal Line is at 65 with an ascending channel, indicating an uptrend.

AUDJPY H4

The AUD/JPY exchange rate on the H4 timeframe is currently outside the upper band. The Bollinger Bands are expanding, with the upper and lower bands moving apart, indicating sharply increased volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) is below the middle band, drawing an upward channel; prices above the line indicate an uptrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) is well below the lower band, drawing an upward channel, indicating bullish sentiment over the longer term.

The TDI indicator's VB High indicator is at 63, and its VB Low indicator is at 46. The difference of 17-point reflects the volatility value on the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base Line is at 54 with a flat channel, indicating a greater bullish bias than bearish bias.

The RSI Price Line is at 67 with an upward channel, indicating an uptrend.

The Trade Signal Line is at 61, with an upward channel crossing the MBL from the bottom, indicating an uptrend.

 

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USD/CHF, a safe-haven currency pair amid US-Venezuela tensions

The US dollar and Swiss franc, both considered safe-haven currencies, tend to fluctuate with a bullish bias. Yesterday, USD/CHF drew a bullish candle, extending the previous day's gains. The price formed a high of 0.79776, a low of 0.79440, and closed at 0.79740.

Geopolitical risk between the US and Venezuela has generally boosted safe-haven values. The US conducted a military operation and arrested President Nicolas Maduro and his wife. The US and Venezuela agreed to an oil export deal to the US, potentially disrupting energy supplies. There were subsequent reactions from other countries, such as the freezing of Maduro's assets in Switzerland. This all triggered volatility in financial markets and increased demand for safe-haven assets.

Gold and precious metals rose sharply, reflecting safe-haven demand from investors concerned about geopolitical uncertainty. Safe-haven assets such as Treasurys and defensive currencies also received capital inflows. The US dollar strengthened slightly in initial reactions as a safe-haven relative to geopolitical risks. However, sentiment regarding Fed rate easing or expectations of rate cuts continued to weaken the USD in the short term.

The forex market saw intraday volatility, with the USD/CHF pair moving within a wider range due to global sentiment reactions. Geopolitical conflicts tend to trigger capital flows into defensive assets or risk-off. In these situations, the CHF often strengthens due to its reputation as a safe-haven outside the USD.

Today, the market will await the release of the Swiss CPI report for December and US jobless claims, which are expected to rise. Market focus will also be on this week's Non-farm Payrolls (NFP) data.

The SNB currently maintains its interest rate at 0.0%. If inflation falls more than expected, this could strengthen SNB's position to remain dovish or at 0% throughout 2026. Conflicts in Eastern Europe and South America are prompting investors to shift assets to the Swiss franc.

The Fed has cut interest rates to a range of 3.50%-3.75% by the end of 2025. The market anticipates at least two more cuts in 2026. The Fed has resumed balance sheet expansion to maintain liquidity, which theoretically weakens the US dollar's strength in the medium term.

The US dollar index (DXY) has been relatively stable following labor data showing a decline in job openings and mixed service sector growth. The DXY rose from a low of 98.497 to a high of 98.731 on Wednesday, January 7, indicating positive sentiment towards the US dollar.

If geopolitical escalation worsens or Venezuela's allies such as China and Russia become involved, investors are expected to shift funds to Switzerland due to its political neutrality and financial stability, far from the epicenter of the conflict. The CHF benefits from this conflict because, following Maduro's arrest, the focus will shift to longer-term risks, which are more favorable to the CHF.

Forecast price range for the USD/CHF exchange rate. The nearest support is around 7880, with the next support at 0.7850, predicted to be the critical lower limit. The nearest resistance is around 7950, with the next resistance at 7990, which is the target for an upward correction.

USDCHF D1

The safe-haven currency pair USDCHF is currently above the middle band on the daily timeframe. The Bollinger Bands appear to be contracting, with the upper and lower bands converging, reflecting declining volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) above the middle band draws a flat channel; prices below the line indicate a downtrend with the potential for prices to cross the line from the downside. The 200-day moving average (MA) near the upper band draws a descending channel, indicating bearish sentiment over the longer term.

The VB High TDI indicator is at 61, and the VB Low is at 31. The 30-point difference reflects the volatility value on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line is at 48 with a flat channel, indicating a greater bearish weight than bullishness.

The RSI Price Line is at 53 with an ascending channel crossing the MBL from the downside, indicating a strong uptrend.

The Trade Signal Line is at 44 with an ascending channel, indicating an uptrend.

USDCHF H4

The USDCHF pair is near the upper band line on the H4 timeframe. The Bollinger Bands have drawn a slightly ascending channel with moderate band spacing, indicating bullish sentiment and moderate volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) near the lower band has drawn a curved channel to the upside, indicating an uptrend transition. The 200-day moving average (MA) near the upper band has drawn a horizontal channel, indicating easing bearish sentiment.

The TDI indicator's VB High indicator is at 67, and its VB Low indicator is at 47. The 20-point difference reflects the volatility value on the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base Line is at 57 within an ascending channel, indicating greater bullishness than bearishness, suggesting upside potential.

The RSI Price Line is at 68 within an ascending channel, indicating an uptrend.

The Trade Signal Line is at 63 within an ascending channel, indicating an uptrend.

 

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USD/CAD awaits dual news releases on Big Friday

The USD/CAD commodity currency pair on Thursday showed extended bullish sentiment. The price drew a bullish candle with a half-body shadow at the top of the candle. The price formed a high of 1.38882, a low of 1.38507, and a close of 1.38657, from an opening price of 1.38882. USD/CAD has trended bullish since late December 2025, extending into early January 2026.

The Canadian dollar weakened against the US dollar due to broad-based dollar strength. The US Dollar Index (DXY) has shown positive sentiment since the end of 2025, ranging from a low of 97.749 to a high of 98.984.

The US dollar extended its gains after data released yesterday showed Initial Jobless Claims rose moderately to 208k in the week ending January 3, slightly below market expectations of 210k and up from the previous week's revised reading of 200k.

Today is a crucial day for this pair due to the clash of major economic data from both countries simultaneously. This makes this pair interesting because it can drive high volatility.

Today, the market will focus on dual employment data, which could trigger movements of hundreds of pips. The United States will release Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) data. If the employment figures are above expectations, the USD will theoretically strengthen, giving the Fed reason to be less aggressive in cutting interest rates in early 2026.

At the same time, Canada will also release employment change and employment rate data, which are also related to the Canadian workforce. If the labor market cools or the unemployment rate rises, pressure will put pressure on the Bank of Canada (BoC) to cut interest rates, which would theoretically weaken the CAD.

As a major oil exporter, Canada's CAD currency is often linked to oil prices. WTI oil is currently trading in the $55-$58 range. Rising oil prices could support the CAD in the medium term.

From a geopolitical risk perspective, Trump's controversial statement regarding the Greenland tariff issue has created new uncertainty, theoretically benefiting the USD as a safe-haven currency.

Donald Trump's statement in early January 2026 sparked a global diplomatic uproar, primarily due to his desire to combine territorial ambitions regarding Greenland with the economic threat of tariffs. Trump openly wants to make Greenland part of the US for national security reasons. He claims Greenland is crucial to countering Russian and Chinese influence in the Arctic. The White House, through spokesperson Karoline Leavitt, confirmed that this acquisition is under active discussion and that all options are open, including the use of economic and military force, although it continues to prioritize diplomacy as the first option.

Trump uses the threat of tariffs not only as a means of trade protection but also as a diplomatic bargaining chip. European countries deemed uncooperative will be threatened with high tariffs.

Greenland's Prime Minister, Jens Frederik Nielsen, called it a fantasy and asserted that Greenland would not be sold. Meanwhile, Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen responded by calling Trump's plan absurd and warning that forced annexation would mean the end of the NATO alliance.

USDCAD price forecast: nearest support is around 1.37800 if a technical correction occurs. Next support is around 1.37000, which is a strong limit for the uptrend. Nearest resistance is around 1.38880-1.39000, which is a crucial technical level that must be broken to continue rising. Next resistance is around 1.39500 if the US NFP is very strong and the Canadian data is poor.

USDCAD D1

The USDCAD pair is currently near the upper band line on the daily timeframe. The Bollinger Bands are drawing a descending channel that is starting to flatten with wide band spacing, indicating a trend transition and high volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) is above the upper band, drawing a descending channel; the price remains below the line, indicating a weakening downtrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) is below the upper band, drawing a descending channel, indicating bearish sentiment over the longer term.

The TDI indicator's VB High is 58, and its VB Low is 22. The 36-point difference reflects the volatility value on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line is 40 with a flat channel, indicating a greater bearish weight than bullishness.

The RSI Price Line is 58, with an ascending channel crossing the MBL from below, indicating a strong uptrend.

The Trade Signal Line is 46, with an ascending channel crossing the MBL from below, indicating an uptrend.

USDCAD H4

The USDCAD pair is below the upper band on the H4 timeframe. The Bollinger Bands are drawing an ascending channel with wide spacing, indicating bullish sentiment and high volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) is above the lower band, forming a channel that slopes upwards, with the price significantly above the line, indicating a strong uptrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) is below the upper band, drawing a descending channel, indicating bearish sentiment over the longer term.

The TDI indicator's VB High is 76, and its VB Low is 54. The 22-point difference reflects the volatility value on the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base Line is 65 within an ascending channel, indicating a greater bullish bias than bearish bias.

The RSI Price Line is 69 with a descending channel crossing the TSL from above, indicating a downtrend.

The Trade Signal Line is 72 within an ascending channel, indicating an uptrend.

 

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WTI oil prices were under some pressure after rising to $59.52.

The XTIUSD exchange rate last Friday drew a bullish candle with shadows at the top and bottom of the candle. The price formed a high of 59.52, a low of 57.51, and a close of 58.63.

The Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report on Friday, January 9, 2026, had a significant impact on the USD and global market sentiment. The data showed that December's payrolls reached 136K, significantly lower than market expectations of around 182K. This generally put selling pressure on the USD, indicating a cooling in the US labor market.

Although job growth slowed, the unemployment rate remained stable at 3.6%. Furthermore, average earnings rose 0.4% monthly, higher than expected. This wage increase signals that inflation remains present. This temporarily held back further USD weakness, as the market still saw the possibility that the Fed might be in no hurry to cut interest rates.

The DXY experienced high volatility immediately following the data release. The US dollar index weakened following the release due to disappointing employment figures. The DXY is currently at 99.137, down from 99.264.

Current oil market sentiment is tending to be wait-and-see, with a medium-term weakening trend but sensitive to news surprises. The market is still digesting the US military operation in Venezuela and the detention of Nicolas Maduro. Although Venezuela has the largest oil reserves, its production has long been under pressure. There is speculation that under US control, Venezuelan oil supplies could return to the global market in a large scale over the long term, which would fundamentally put downward pressure on prices.

The IEA predicts a global supply surplus of 3.85 million barrels per day by 2026. This poses a burden on prices for sustained high prices.

The market is monitoring OPEC+'s response to the situation in Venezuela. If OPEC+ decides not to cut production further to offset the potential influx of Venezuelan oil, the XTIUSD price could be under pressure.

Technically, XTIUSD is in a consolidation phase. The XTIUSD price forecast shows strong support at around $55.00, with the nearest support at $56.25 as a rebound level. Strong resistance is at around 59.50 as a psychological level, and the nearest resistance is at around $59.40.

XTIUSD D1

The daily timeframe for WTI oil is below the upper band. The Bollinger Bands draw a slightly descending channel with wide band spacing, indicating weak bearish sentiment and moderate volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) below the upper band draws a horizontal channel, while prices near the line indicate sideways movement. The 200-day moving average (MA) slightly above the upper band draws a descending channel, indicating bearish sentiment over the longer term.

The TDI indicator's VB High indicator is at 54 and its VB Low indicator is at 37. The 17-point difference reflects the volatility value on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line is at 45 with a flat channel, indicating a greater bearish bias than bullish bias.

The RSI Price Line is at 53 with an ascending channel crossing the MBL and TSL from the downside, indicating an uptrend.

The Trade Signal Line is at 48 with an ascending channel, indicating an uptrend.

XTIUSD H4

The WTI oil price on the H4 timeframe is below the upper band. The Bollinger Bands draw a flat channel with widening band spacing, indicating a range-bound market with increasing volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) above the middle band draws a channel curving upwards; prices above this line indicate an uptrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) above the 50-day moving average (MA) draws a flat channel, indicating a sideways market over a longer period.

The TDI indicator's VB High is at 65, and its VB Low is at 32. The 33-point difference reflects the volatility value on the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base Line is at 48 with an upward channel, indicating greater bearishness than bullishness, suggesting upside potential.

The RSI Price Line is at 64, with an upward channel beginning to curve downwards, indicating a reversal of the uptrend.

The Trade Signal Line is at 62 with a flat upward channel, indicating a fading uptrend.

 

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GBP/JPY Rises to Record High in Early 2026

The British Pound and Japanese Yen cross currency pair rose to record highs in early 2026. The price drew a bullish candle on January 12, 2026. It formed a high of 213.011, a low of 211.576, and a close of 212.987.

The Japanese Yen remains under pressure despite the Bank of Japan abandoning its negative interest rate policy. However, the BoJ's interest rate hike is still not strong enough to alter global capital flows. Japanese yields remain far below those of the US, UK, and Europe, so investors continue to favor high-yielding currencies.

The very low yield differential between the JPY and the much higher USD or GBP encourages investors to continue using carry trade strategies. Investors borrow cheap JPY and then buy high-yielding assets by selling JPY.

Despite the BoJ's interest rate hike, they continue to emphasize gradual tightening, with no signs of aggressive or rapid action. The market believes this is not the start of a strong hawkish cycle. From an economic perspective, Japanese inflation remains weak, driven in part by import and energy costs, rather than solid domestic demand. The market also does not appreciate the long-term strengthening of the Japanese yen.

Global market sentiment appears to remain risk-on, causing the Japanese yen to lose its safe-haven function. If market sentiment becomes more risk-off, due to geopolitical risks, a global crisis, or a market crash, the JPY will receive support. Demand for the JPY remains structurally weak, Japan still imports large amounts of energy, and many Japanese pension funds and institutions invest overseas.

Meanwhile, the British pound remains resilient, supported by improvements in the UK's fiscal credibility in early 2026. Although the BoE cut interest rates in late 2025, market sentiment is more focused on the UK's more stable economic recovery compared to its European counterparts. Recent speeches by BoE officials have provided psychological support for pound buyers.

The UK economy is expected to grow by around 1.3%-1.4% in 2026, according to several independent economic institutions and business surveys. This reflects positive but still weak growth. The economy is still growing, but not strong enough to significantly boost demand for the currency without the support of other factors.

Inflation has eased from its peak but remains slightly above the Bank of England's 2% target at the start of the year. Consumer surveys indicate near-term inflation expectations, indicating price pressures are easing. This implies the Bank of England feels more comfortable lowering interest rates as inflation begins to fall, but caution is needed.

In the labor market, reports show a decline in job openings, a rise in unemployment, and a decline in hiring. A softening labor market means consumption and wages may no longer be the main engines of growth.

The manufacturing and business sectors warn that production costs are continuing to rise and profits are under pressure, which could restrain investment and hiring. This is a real headwind for medium-term economic growth.

GBPJPY price range forecast: nearest support is around 210.30-210.50 if a technical correction occurs. Strong support is around 209.50. Nearest resistance is around 212.60-212.80. A breakout of this level could trigger the price to reach the next resistance level of 213.50. This forecast does not reflect actual events and is subject to prediction errors.

GBPJPY D1

On the daily timeframe, the GBP/JPY pair is near the upper band. The Bollinger Bands draw an ascending channel with wide spacing, indicating bullish sentiment and high volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) near the lower band draws an ascending channel, with the price well above the line, indicating a strong uptrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) is well below the lower band draws an ascending channel, indicating bullish sentiment over the longer term.

The VB High TDI indicator is at 71, and the VB Low is at 57. The 14-point differencereflects the volatility value on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line is at 64 with a horizontal channel, indicating a greater bullish weighting than the bearish weighting.

The RSI Price Line is at 67, with a channel sloping upwards, crossing the MBL and TSL from the downside, indicating an uptrend.

The Trade Signal Line is at 65, with a slightly sloping upwards channel, indicating an uptrend.

GBPJPY H4

On the H4 timeframe, the GBP/JPY cross pair is near the upper band. The Bollinger Bands appear to be expanding, with the upper and lower bands diverging, reflecting increased market volatility and an upward price trend.

The 50-day moving average (MA) near the middle band draws a slight upward channel, with the price well above the line, indicating a strong uptrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) is well below the lower band draws an upward channel, indicating bullish sentiment over the longer term.

The VB High TDI indicator is pointing at 73, and the VB Low is pointing at 39. The 35-point difference reflects the volatility value on the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base Line is pointing at 55 within an upward channel, indicating a greater bullish weighting than bearish weighting, indicating potential upside.

The RSI Price Line is pointing at 72 within an upward channel, indicating an uptrend in the overbought zone.

The Trade Signal Line is pointing at 66, with an upward channel crossing the MBL from the downside, indicating an uptrend.

 

[radex78]

Silver Prices Soar Amid a Combination of Uncertainty and Geopolitical Risk

Silver prices surged during Tuesday's trading session, extending the bullish trend in January 2026. XAG/USD rose, drawing a bullish candle with shadows at the top and bottom of the candle. The price formed a high of 89.105, a low of 83.425, and a close of 86.475.

The XAGUSD instrument is currently in a phase of very high volatility, with the bullish trend dominating at historical record levels. Current market sentiment is influenced by a combination of uncertainty, monetary policy, and geopolitical risk.

The market is currently awaiting clarity regarding the direction of US interest rate policy. Speculation about policy easing amid persistent inflation has caused the US dollar to fluctuate, which has historically benefited precious metals like silver.

Geographical risks, such as those in the Middle East, or the US with Greenland or Denmark, have triggered capital flows into safe-haven assets. Silver, which often follows gold but has higher volatility, has benefited significantly from these conditions.

January is the period when many large index funds conduct their annual rebalancing. Despite potential technical selling pressure from portfolio weighting adjustments, physical and speculative demand have so far been able to hold prices at elevated levels.

In 2026, despite concerns about slowing industrial demand for jewelry due to overpricing, the global silver supply deficit remains a long-term fundamental driver.

Today's main focus is the US CPI and other economic data. A higher or consistently strong CPI could support silver by boosting inflation expectations and safe-haven demand, but a strengthening USD due to surprising data could put pressure on silver.

Goldman Sachs warns of the risk of extreme volatility in silver due to the fragmented physical location of supplies, which could magnify price swings.

Regarding silver demand, the countries with the highest demand are dominated by countries with large industries, renewable energy, and high jewelry consumption. China, India, the US, Japan, and Germany dominate global silver demand.

The main trend for silver is currently predicted to remain bullish, but the RSI indicates overbought conditions, which could technically trigger a price correction. The forecast for today's XAGUSD price range is: nearest support is around 83.50 in the consolidation area, and key support is around 78.00 if a sharp correction occurs. Nearest resistance is around 88.60-89.10, near the high reached this month. Key resistance is around 90.00 as a key psychological level and the next bullish target.

XAGUSD D1

On the daily timeframe, the silver price is currently near the upper band. The Bollinger Bands draw an ascending channel with wide band spacing, indicating bullish sentiment and high volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) near the lower band draws an ascending channel; the silver price is well above the line, indicating a strong uptrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) is well below the lower band draws an ascending channel, indicating bullish sentiment over the longer term.

The VB High TDI indicator is at 83, and the VB Low is at 60. The 23-point difference reflects the volatility value on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line is at 71 within an ascending channel, indicating greater bullishness than bearishness, and potential upside.

The RSI Price Line is at 71, with an ascending channel crossing the TSL from below, indicating an overbought uptrend.

The Trade Signal Line is at 67 within an ascending channel, indicating an uptrend.

XAGUSD H4

The silver price on the H4 timeframe is below the upper band. The Bollinger Bands draw an ascending channel with wide spacing, indicating bullish sentiment and high volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) below the middle band draws an ascending channel, while prices well above it indicate an uptrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) is well below the lower band draws an ascending channel, indicating bullish sentiment over the longer term.

The VB High TDI indicator is at 79, and the VB Low is at 44. The 35-point difference reflects the volatility value on the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base Line is at 62 with an ascending channel, indicating greater bullishness than bearishness, suggesting upside potential.

The RSI Price Line is at 69, with a downward-curving channel crossing the TSL, indicating a trend reversal.

The Trade Signal Line is at 72, with a slightly downward-curving channel, indicating a downtrend transition.

 

[radex78]

GBP/USD moves near the consolidation line

The GBPUSD movement this week shows limited gains. After falling to 1.33907, the price attempted a rebound to 1.34948, but failed to extend the gains and fell to 1.34173. On Wednesday, January 14th, the GBPUSD drew a bullish candle with a smaller body than the previous bearish candle. The GBPUSD price movement focused within a range near the middle band line, which is the consolidation line for price divergences.

Fundamental factors influencing the GBPUSD price movement from the UK perspective include UK borrowing costs, interest rate policy, and economic data.

Although UK government bonds fell to their lowest level in over a year, reflecting market expectations of a potential BoE interest rate cut, this is typically bearish for the pound as lower yields tend to depress capital inflows.

The Bank of England (BoE) sees inflation approaching its 2% target, making further interest rate cuts likely this year, which could weaken the GBP against the USD in the short term.

UK economic growth is expected to slow, and data through this week, including GDP, could disappoint, reinforcing the monetary easing narrative.

From a USD perspective, US economic data continues to show relative strength, leading to expectations that the Fed's monetary policy could remain tighter than the BoE's, which in turn could support the USD.

Net long dollar positions decreased, reflecting traders' reduced bearishness on the USD, but still showing fundamental support for the USD relative to the GBP.

Today, traders will focus on the important economic data schedule for the GBP and USD. UK data focuses on monthly and annual GDP. This is a key indicator of UK economic growth, crucial for GBP sentiment. Weak growth could strengthen expectations of a BoE interest rate cut, which could pressure the GBP. Besides GDP, other data that may have an impact include the trade balance and industrial and manufacturing production, which provide signals about real UK activity.

In the New York session, traders will focus on manufacturing and employment data. If US jobless claims are higher than expected, the USD could weaken. Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index and Empire State Manufacturing Index: These two indexes measure manufacturing conditions in key US regions. Figures above 0 indicate expansion; positive readings can support the USD. Retail sales measure the strength of US household consumption. Strong data will strengthen the case for the Fed to delay interest rate cuts, which supports the USD.

GBPUSD price range forecast: nearest support is around 1.34000-1.34200. Lower support is around 1.33200-1.33500. Nearest resistance is around 1.34600. The next resistance, the upper limit of the current price range, is around 1.35000-1.35200. The daily range is estimated between 1.32970 and 1.3566, with a pivot point around 1.34320.

GBPUSD D1

On the daily timeframe, GBPUSD is moving near the middle band. The Bollinger Bands appear to be contracting, as the upper and lower bands approach each other. This reflects decreasing market volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) below the lower band draws an ascending channel; prices above the line indicate an uptrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) below the middle band draws an ascending channel, indicating bullish sentiment over the longer term.

The VB High TDI indicator is pointing at 70, and the VB Low is pointing at 50. The 20-point difference reflects the volatility value on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line is pointing at 60 within an ascending channel, indicating greater bullishness than bearishness and potential upside.

The RSI Price Line is pointing at 51 within a descending channel, indicating a downtrend.

The Trade Signal Line is pointing at 53, with a descending channel crossing the MBL from the top, indicating a downtrend.

GBPUSD H4

On the H4 timeframe, GBPUSD is moving near the middle band. The Bollinger Bands draw a flat channel with relatively wide band spacing, indicating a sideways market with moderate volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) is above the middle band, drawing a flat channel, while prices below the line indicate a downtrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) near the lower band draws an ascending channel, indicating bullish sentiment over the longer term.

The TDI indicator's VB High indicator is at 57, and its VB Low indicator is at 31. The 26-point difference reflects the volatility value on the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base Line is at 44 with a descending channel, indicating greater bearishness than bullishness, suggesting potential downside.

The RSI Price Line is at 45 with a downward-curving channel, indicating a downtrend.

The Trade Signal Line is at 45 with a descending channel, indicating a downtrend.

 

[radex78]

WTI oil prices retreat amid easing geopolitical tensions and oversupply

WTI oil prices briefly rose to a high of 62.17 on January 14, 2026, but failed to sustain its bullish momentum and retreated to a low of 58.78 the following day. The price drew a long-bodied bearish candle with almost no shadow, forming a high of 60.94, a low of 58.78, and a close of 58.82.

Current market sentiment is bearish, driven by several key factors, such as easing geopolitical tensions, oversupply, and US dollar sentiment.

Oil prices had surged due to concerns about a US-Iran military conflict. However, Donald Trump's statement indicating that the risk of a direct attack had subsided removed the risk premium from oil prices. This triggered a nearly 5% drop to 59 in yesterday's trading.

The capture of President Nicolas Maduro by US forces in early January created political uncertainty. Although Venezuela has substantial oil reserves, its current production is below 1 million barrels per day, so the direct impact on global supply remains limited.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) projects a supply surplus of around 3.8 million barrels per day in 2026. This is because US production remains high, while OPEC+ has begun to reduce its production, which has put structural downward pressure on prices.

Political tensions between the US government and the Federal Reserve have fueled uncertainty, impacting US dollar fluctuations, sometimes leading investors to turn to gold rather than energy commodities.

According to the latest EIA report, US crude oil inventories are in the range of 419 to 425 million barrels. Despite an unspecified decrease of 3.8 million barrels in the first week of January, the overall figure is considered adequate. Delivery inventories at Cushing, Oklahoma, reportedly increased by around 700,000 barrels, which technically puts negative pressure on WTI futures prices.

The combination of high US domestic inventories and a global supply glut is creating a super glut, aka a supply glut.

Analysts such as Goldman Sachs project that the average WTI price in 2026 could fall to around $52 per barrel if the buildup continues without drastic cuts from major producers.

Fundamentally, geopolitical issues such as those in Venezuela, Greenland, Denmark, and Iran tend to be temporary impact. Traders often employ a sell-on-strength strategy, selling when prices rise temporarily as oil inventories remain high.

The forecasted WTI oil price range: nearest support is around $58.00-$59.00 after the massive sell-off. Key support is projected to be around $54.00-$57.00. Nearest resistance was around $61.50-$62.80 before the price crash. Key resistance is projected to be around $65.00-$68.00 if a new escalation occurs in the Middle East or Venezuela.

XTIUSD D1

The WTI oil price is currently above the middle band on the daily timeframe. The Bollinger Bands have drawn a slightly ascending channel with wide spacing, indicating bullish sentiment and high volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) above the middle band has drawn a flat channel, with the price above the line, indicating a weak uptrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) above the upper band has drawn a descending channel, indicating bearish sentiment over the longer term.

The TDI indicator's VB High is at 58, and its VB Low is at 36. The 22-point difference reflects the volatility value on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line is at 47 with a flat channel, indicating a greater weighting of bears than bulls.

The RSI Price Line is at 58 with a downward-curving channel, indicating a downtrend.

The Trade Signal Line is at 55 with an ascending channel, indicating an uptrend.

XTIUSD H4

WTI oil prices are near the lower band on the H4 timeframe. The Bollinger Bands draw a flat ascending channel with wide band spacing, indicating fading bullish sentiment and high volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) above the lower band draws an ascending channel; prices above the line indicate an uptrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) below the lower band draws a flat channel, indicating a sideways market over the longer term. There is a golden cross signal on the H4 timeframe.

The TDI indicator's VB High indicator is pointing at 75, and its VB Low indicator is pointing at 45. The 30-point difference reflects the volatility value on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line is pointing at 60 with an ascending channel, indicating greater bullishness than bearishness, and potential upside.

The RSI Price Line is pointing at 42, with a descending channel crossing the MBL from above, indicating a downtrend.

The Trade Signal Line is pointing at 48, with a descending channel crossing the MBL from above, indicating a downtrend.