Daily Analysis Forex Mix

[radex78]

Gold Trims Gains as Fed Rate Cut Expectations Ease

Gold prices failed to extend their gains on Wednesday, November 19, 2025, and trimmed gains by drawing a short-bodied bullish candle with a long shadow at the top of the candle. Gold prices formed a high of $4132, a low of $4055, and a close of $4073.

The Fed minutes stated that most officials warned that additional rate cuts could risk higher inflation and signaled a weakened commitment to the 20% target. Many supported the October rate cut, but some said they could support keeping rates unchanged. Officials generally noted that inflation remains quite high. The split in views within the FOMC points to a potential pause in rate cuts. There are concerns among hawkish members about the risk of high inflation becoming entrenched.

Today's market sentiment will be dominated by the release of crucial US economic data and its impact on expectations for the Fed's interest rate policy. Today's primary market focus is on the delayed release of the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data. This data is crucial because it will provide a clear signal regarding the health of the US labor market, a key factor in the Fed's interest rate decision. According to Forexfactory, the NFP is forecast to rise by 53,000 from the previously revised 22,000. While higher than previously, the 53k figure is still relatively low for population growth. The weak figure reflects a significant slowdown in the US labor market. If the NFP data is worse than expected, it could increase market expectations for a Fed interest rate cut at its December meeting. This could support gold, a non-yielding asset. Conversely, if the NFP data is stronger than expected, it could reduce expectations for an interest rate cut and support the USD, as it would increase US Treasury yields.

The risk-off sentiment in global markets, fueled by economic uncertainty following the previous US government shutdown, continues to provide fundamental support for gold as a safe-haven asset.

The US dollar, as reflected by the US Dollar Index (DXY), surged to a high of 100,343 from a low of 99,494. The DXY tracks the performance of the USD against six other major currencies. Conversely, US Treasury yields were stable, with the 10-year US government bond yield at 4.11%. US real yields.

On the other hand, Goldman Sachs revealed that central banks continue to buy gold, particularly the People's Bank of China (PBoC). The PBoC added an estimated 15 tons of the yellow metal to its forex reserves two months ago. They added that the PBoC could continue its purchases in November, which could push bullion prices higher.

The direction of gold prices today is expected to depend heavily on the US Non-farm Payrolls (NFP) data release. However, based on recent sentiment, there is strong bullish potential if the employment data proves weak as expected, which could weaken the USD and increase gold.

The forecast price movement range is strong support around 4,030-4,032. However, if the NFP data is surprisingly strong, gold may break below $4,000. Strong resistance is estimated at around 4,118-4,120. A breakout of this level could lead gold to rise, with a target of 4,132. Gold is likely to be highly volatile today following the NFP release, necessitating strict risk management.

XAUUSD D1

The gold price on the daily timeframe is currently near the middle band line. The Bollinger bands appear to be contracting, indicating lower market volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) is above the lower band, drawing an upward channel; prices above the line indicate bullish sentiment. The 200-day moving average (MA) is well below the 50-day moving average (MA), drawing an upward channel, indicating bullish sentiment over the longer term.

The VB High TDI indicator is at 87, and the VB Low is at 39. The difference of 48 reflects the volatility value on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line is at 63 with a downward channel, indicating a greater bullish bias than bearish bias, and potential downside.

The RSI Price Line is at 52 with a horizontal channel crossing the TSL from above, indicating a sideways market.

The Trade Signal Line is at 56 with a horizontal channel, indicating a sideways market.

XAUUSD H4

The gold price on the H4 timeframe is near the middle band. The Bollinger Bands appear to be contracting, with the upper and lower bands converging, indicating weakening volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) below the upper band draws an upward channel; prices below the line indicate a downtrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) near the middle band draws an upward channel, indicating bullish sentiment over the longer term.

The TDI indicator's VB High is 75, and its VB Low is 29. The difference of 46 reflects the volatility value on the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base Line is 52 with a downward channel, indicating a greater bullish bias than bearish bias, suggesting potential downside.

The RSI Price Line is 49 with a horizontal channel, indicating a sideways trend or trend transition.

The Trade Signal Line is 51 with a horizontal channel, indicating a sideways market.

 

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GBP pares losses ahead of UK retail sales data

The GBPUSD currency pair drew a bullish candlestick yesterday, Thursday, November 20th, with a small body and relatively long shadows at the top and bottom. The price formed a high of 1.13124, a low of 1.30376, and a close of 1.30758 from an open of 1.30564.

In the American trading session, GBP strengthened following the release of the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, which far exceeded expectations, revealing that the economy added more people to the labor force than expected. The US economy added 119,000 jobs in September, boosting the chances of a Fed rate cut to 43%, despite the unemployment rate dropping to 4.4%. Hawkish Fed officials warned against easing policy too quickly, as it could push inflation higher and undermine its 2% inflation target commitment. Meanwhile, in the UK, declining inflation and confidence reinforced bets on a Bank of England (BoE) rate cut.

Today is a busy day of economic data releases that have the potential to trigger market volatility. The pound sterling will be the main focus in the European session with the release of important UK retail sales data. According to Forexfactory, UK retail sales rose 0.5% in the previous release, and today's data is expected to contract by -0.1%. The implications of a strong data release could increase optimism about consumer spending and economic growth, providing a positive boost to the GBP. A weak figure could raise fears of a recession or slowdown, which could weigh on the GBP.

Other data releases of interest include the UK flash manufacturing PMI and the UK services PMI. The PMI is an indicator of healthy business activity; a reading above 50 indicates expansion. A stronger-than-expected UK PMI could support the GBP. The flash manufacturing PMI is expected to come in at 49.3, a slight contraction from the previous release of 49.7. The flash services PMI is expected to come in at 51.9, a slight decrease from the previous release of 52.3.

In recent days, there have been reports of a decline in UK inflation (CPI) to 3.6% in October. This has the potential to increase speculation that the BoE will hold or even cut interest rates sooner, which tends to be negative for GBP. The market will be watching today's data for further clues regarding the BoE's policy direction.

Today, the US will also release economic data, including the Flash Manufacturing PMI and Services PMI. The US Flash Manufacturing PMI is estimated at 52.0, slightly down from the previous release of 52.5. The Flash Services PMI is estimated at 54.6, down from the previous release of 54.8. Looking at the UK and US PMI figures, business activity in the US is stronger than in the UK.

General sentiment towards the US dollar is currently influenced by the Fed's comments and US bond yields. The dollar tends to strengthen if US data shows a resilient economy, which could increase speculation that the Fed will hold interest rates for longer.

The US Dollar Index (DXY) is currently up around 0.14% and is above the 100 level, indicating the US dollar's strong performance against six other major currencies. The DXY reached a high of 100.360 before finally falling to 100.257.

Today's forecast shows key resistance in the 1.3150-1.3180 range, and key support in the 1.2950-1.2920 range. A breakout of these levels could lead to further price increases.

GBPUSD D1

The GBPUSD pair is currently trading between the middle and lower bands on the daily timeframe. The Bollinger Bands are drawing a descending channel with wide spacing, indicating bearish sentiment and high market volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) is slightly above the upper band, drawing a descending channel; the price is well below the line, indicating a downtrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) is slightly below the upper band, drawing an ascending channel, indicating fading longer-term bullish sentiment.

The TDI indicator's VB High is at 50, and its VB Low is at 28. The difference of 22 reflects the volatility value on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line is at 39 within a descending channel, indicating greater bearishness than bullishness, suggesting potential downside.

The RSI Price Line is at 34, with a descending channel crossing the TSL and MBL from above, indicating a downtrend.

The Trade Signal Line is at 39 within a descending channel, indicating a downtrend.

GBPUSD H4

The pound sterling is hovering between the middle and lower bands on the H4 timeframe. The Bollinger Bands are expanding and drawing a descending channel, indicating rising market volatility with bearish sentiment.

The 50-day moving average (MA) above the middle band draws a downward-sloping channel, while prices below the line indicate a downtrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) is well above the upper band, drawing a downward-sloping channel, indicating bearish sentiment over the longer term.

The TDI indicator's VB High indicator is at 62, and its VB Low indicator is at 31. The difference of 31 reflects the volatility value on the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base Line is at 46 with a descending channel, indicating a greater bearish bias than bullish sentiment, suggesting a potential downside.

The RSI Price Line is at 38 with a downward-sloping channel, indicating a trend reversal to the downside.

The Trade Signal Line is at 34 with a horizontal channel, indicating a sideways market.

 

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Gold prices consolidate amid declining bets on a Fed interest rate cut.

Although gold prices fell on Friday, drawing a bearish candle with wicks at the top and bottom of the candle, its movement remained within a consolidation pattern. Gold experienced a prolonged correction after reaching a new all-time high of $4,381, falling to a low of $3,886 in late October. Gold's movement over the past five days has tended to correct within a range of around $3,998-$4,132. Gold briefly recovered to $4,244 in mid-November, but failed to extend its gains.

Several factors are hampering gold's rise, including declining expectations for a Fed interest rate cut and a strengthening US dollar. Strong US PMI data helped the US dollar remain resilient, preventing XAU/USD from gathering recovery momentum.

However, market analysis also suggests that the Fed will keep interest rates lower or even consider cutting them sooner in 2025 due to recent weak economic data. According to the CME Group's Fedwatch tool, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates is around 69.4%, and the probability of the Fed maintaining interest rates is 30.6%. A dovish signal from the Fed tends to be positive for gold, as it reduces the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold.

The US dollar has recently shown stability after a period of weakness. The DXY is currently at 100.196. If expectations of a Fed rate cut strengthen, this could put pressure on the USD, which in turn supports gold, as gold is priced in USD. Although the Fed minutes were released the previous week, the market is still digesting their contents. Any indication of future policy could impact the USD.

The US stock market has shown a mild correction or tends to move sideways, often causing investors to seek safe-haven assets like gold, which benefit from such conditions. From a geopolitical perspective, wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, although not mentioned today, have historically supported gold as a hedge.

Gold also enjoys structural support from global central banks as an alternative reserve. According to the World Gold Council, central banks held approximately 230 tons of net gold in the third quarter of 2025, an increase of approximately 28% compared to the previous quarter. As of the first quarter of the year to date, central bank purchases were recorded at approximately 634 tons. The World Gold Council (WGC) estimates total central bank purchases in 2025 to be in the range of 750-900 tons. The WGC survey shows that most central banks anticipate increasing gold holdings over the next five years, with many reducing their US dollar holdings as reserves. This trend demonstrates a transition by central banks in emerging and developed economies, increasingly considering gold as a strategic component of national reserves.

Today's fundamental analysis, with expectations of a Fed interest rate cut and a cautious stock market stance, suggests that fundamental sentiment tends to support a slight increase in gold prices, although the market may be in a consolidation or sideways phase following previous price movements.

Today's price range forecast: A reasonable price range is within $4,000-$4,132, and a wider range is between $3,960-$3,992 and $4,180-$4,200.

XAUUSD D1

Gold prices are near the middle band on the daily timeframe. The Bollinger Bands are drawing a flat channel with narrowing band spacing, indicating sideways movement and decreasing volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) is below the middle band, drawing an upward channel, indicating bullish sentiment. The 200-day moving average (MA) is well below the lower band, drawing an upward channel, indicating bullish sentiment over the longer term.

The TDI indicator's VB High is at 84, and its VB Low is at 38. The difference of 46 reflects the volatility value on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line is at 61 with a downward channel, indicating a greater bullish bias than bearish bias, suggesting potential downside.

The RSI Price Line is at 52 with a flattened channel, indicating a sideways market.

The Trade Signal Line is at 53 with a slight downward channel, indicating a downtrend.

XAUUSD H4

The gold price on the H4 timeframe is near the middle band. The Bollinger Bands draw a flat channel with relatively narrow band spacing, indicating sideways movement and relatively low market volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) above the middle band draws a flat channel, and the price tends to fluctuate within the MA line, indicating sideways movement. The 200-day moving average (MA) below the upper band draws a flat channel, indicating a sideways market over a longer period.

The VB High TDI indicator is at 55, and the VB Low is at 34. The difference of 21 reflects the volatility value on the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base Line is at 44 with a descending channel, indicating a greater bearish bias than bullish bias, and potential downside.

The RSI Price Line is at 49 with a horizontal channel, indicating a sideways market.

The Trade Signal Line is at 46 with a horizontal channel, indicating a sideways market.

 

[radex78]

Silver prices rose, driven by expectations of Fed easing.

Silver prices rose on Monday, November 24, 2025, drawing a long-bodied bullish candle with almost no shadow. The price formed a high of $51,382, a low of $49,667, and a close of $51,380.

Fundamental factors influencing the XAGUSD price that traders are paying attention to include interest rates and US central bank policy, US dollar performance and safe-haven demand, industrial demand, and global supply.

The rise in silver prices appears to be influenced by expectations of a Fed rate cut at its December meeting. According to the CME Group's Fedwatch tool, bets on a Fed rate cut have risen by 86.1%, while expectations of an unchanged rate are only 14.9%. New York Fed Governor John Williams stated that he sees room for further interest rate cuts in the near future. A weakening labor market has revived investor expectations for a December rate cut. Silver, as a safe-haven asset, finds support when interest rates fall due to lower opportunity costs.

Today, the US will release economic data that could trigger volatility. Core PPI and retail sales are expected to come in at 0.2%, up from the previous release of minus 0.1%. Retail sales are expected to come in at 0.4%, down from the previously revised 0.6%. If PPI and retail sales data are higher than expected, the possibility that the Fed will hold off on cutting interest rates or keep rates relatively high could pressure silver. Conversely, lower data increases expectations of a rate cut and supports silver.

Since silver is priced in USD, a strengthening or weakening of the USD can impact the XAGUSD exchange rate. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the performance of the US dollar against six major currencies, is currently above the 100,000 level. The DXY remains hovering near its peak, fluctuating within a range for three consecutive days, after pausing the previous week's gains.

Industrial demand for silver is currently high, driven by renewable energy sectors such as solar panels, electric vehicles, and the electronics industry, such as semiconductor chips. On the other hand, global supply is not keeping up with demand, creating a structural deficit caused by declining production in several major producing countries, such as Mexico. This supply deficit could support silver prices in the long term.

Today's silver price forecast: Support is estimated at $47.90 - $47.40. Resistance is estimated at $52.00 - $52.50.

XAGUSD D1

On the daily timeframe, the silver price is currently moving above the middle band line, heading towards the upper band line target. The Bollinger Bands are drawing a slightly flat channel with an upward bias. The wide spacing between the bands indicates high volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) is below the middle band, drawing an upward channel; the price is moving away from the line, indicating strengthening bullish sentiment. The 200-day moving average (MA) is well below the lower band, forming an upward channel, which indicates bullish sentiment over the longer term.

The VB High TDI indicator is pointing at 79, and the VB Low is pointing at 39. The difference of 40 reflects the volatility value on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line is pointing at 59 with a downward channel, indicating greater bullishness than bearishness, and potential for a downtrend.

The RSI Price Line is pointing at 54, with a slightly curved channel to the upside, crossing the TSL, indicating an uptrend.

The Trade Signal Line indicates 53 within a descending channel, suggesting a downtrend.

XAGUSD H4

Silver prices on the H4 timeframe moved upward, crossing the middle band and the 50-day moving average (MA) from below. The Bollinger Bands drew a flat channel, with the band spacing slightly contracting, indicating a slight decrease in volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) below the upper band drew a flat channel, with the price above the line indicating an uptrend attempting to take over. The 200-day moving average (MA) below the middle band drew a flat channel, indicating a longer-term sideways trend.

The VB High TDI indicator reads 57, and the VB Low reads 35. The difference of 22 reflects the volatility value on the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base Line is at 46 with a flat channel, indicating a greater bearish bias than bullish bias, and potential sideways movement.

The RSI Price Line is at 56, with an upward channel crossing the TSL and MBL from below, indicating an uptrend.

The Trade Signal Line is at 48, with an upward channel crossing the MBL from below, indicating an uptrend.

 

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The New Zealand Dollar Recovers Slightly Ahead of the RBNZ Interest Rate Decision

The NZD/USD currency pair drew a small-bodied bullish candlestick on Tuesday with short shadows at the top and bottom of the candlestick. Despite the slight increase, movement remained confined within a narrow range. NZD/USD formed a high of 0.56281, a low of 0.55912, and a close of 0.56177.

Fundamental analysis shows that New Zealand's domestic economy is showing signs of weakness, with the unemployment rate rising to 5.3% in the third quarter of 2025, the highest since 2026.

Today, traders will focus on the RBNZ's interest rate policy. Given signs of New Zealand's weak economy, the RBNZ is expected to cut interest rates or maintain a dovish stance. Exports of commodities such as dairy products have also declined, putting additional pressure on the NZD.

The RBNZ's interest rate is currently around 2.50%, lower than the Fed's 4% target rate. The market is currently awaiting the RBNZ's announcement, with most analysts predicting a 25 basis point cut. If the RBNZ actually cuts, especially by 50 bps, this would significantly pressure the NZD.

New Zealand's disappointing macroeconomic data have been a major factor in the recent weakening of the NZD. Reports on manufacturing activity continue to show signs of caution due to rising costs and weak confidence.

Meanwhile, the USD is gaining relative support from its safe-haven status and the possibility that the Fed will be more cautious in cutting interest rates. The Fed cut its interest rate in October by around 4.00%. However, there is a more dovish outlook, with the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates at the December meeting. According to the CME Group's Fedwatch tool, the probability of a cut has risen to 82.7%, and the probability of leaving interest rates unchanged is 17.3%.

Today's market attention is also focused on US data, which could influence expectations of future Fed rate cuts. US unemployment claims are expected to reach 226,000, down from a previously revised 220,000. The market is also closely watching other data, such as Durable Goods Orders, which will be released today.

The NZDUSD appears to be under pressure due to the widening interest rate differential between the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) and the Fed, fueled by expectations of a 25 bps rate cut. This is compounded by weak domestic economic factors and New Zealand's disappointing economic recovery.

Today's price forecast is within the lower range of 0.5555 - 0.5580, and the upper range of 0.5680 - 0.5695.

NZDUSD D1

The NZDUSD price movement on the daily timeframe is currently below the middle band. The Bollinger Bands have drawn a descending channel with wide spacing, indicating bearish sentiment and high market volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) is below the upper band, drawing a descending channel; the price is well below the line, indicating a strong downtrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) is above the upper band, drawing a flat channel, indicating a longer-term sideways trend.

The VB High TDI indicator is at 46, and the VB Low is at 27. The 19-point difference reflects the volatility value on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line is pointing at 36 with a flat channel, indicating a greater weighting of bears than bulls.

The RSI Price Line is pointing at 38 with an ascending channel crossing the TSL and MBL from the bottom, indicating an uptrend.

The Trade Signal Line is pointing to 36 with a horizontal channel, indicating a sideways market.

NZDUSD H4

The NZDUSD pair is trading sideways on the H4 timeframe. The price is near the upper band. A Bollinger Band squeeze reflects low market volatility and relatively stable movement.

The 50-day moving average (MA) above the upper band draws a slight downward channel, while prices below the line indicate a weak downtrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) is well above the upper band, drawing a downward channel, indicating bearish sentiment over the longer timeframe.

The TDI indicator's VB High is 53, and its VB Low is 29. The 24-point difference reflects the volatility value on the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base Line is 41 with a horizontal channel, indicating a greater weighting of bears than bulls.

The RSI Price Line is 55, with an upward channel crossing the TSL from below, indicating an uptrend.

The Trade Signal Line is 48, with an upward channel crossing the MBL from below, indicating an uptrend.

 

[radex78]

GBP/JPY surges on expectations of UK fiscal and budget policy

The GBP/JPY pair, often referred to as "the Beast" due to its high volatility, driven by a combination of high-yielding currencies (GBP) and safe-haven currencies (JPY), rose on Wednesday, drawing a long-bodied bullish candle with virtually no shadows. The price formed a high of 207.133, a low of 205.116, and a close of 207.088.

The GBP's strengthening was supported by positive sentiment towards the pound due to market expectations of UK fiscal and budget policy. If fiscal policy is perceived as stable or improving, this could strengthen the GBP against the yen. The latest report from the UK government under Rachel Reeves just announced a large fiscal budget: tax increases worth around £26 billion through various instruments. This includes a freeze on income tax thresholds, higher taxes on dividends, high-priced properties, pension taxes, and other taxes on investment/property income.

Part of the additional tax revenue will be used to expand social spending, such as increasing public services, health care, education, the minimum wage, and public investment. The government claims this policy aims to stabilize and restore fiscal headroom, the space to finance debt and spending without excessive debt increases.

The market responded with optimism, with UK government bonds surging and long-term bond yields falling, meaning lower government borrowing costs. The strengthening of the GBP indicates that the market views this new fiscal policy as a signal of fiscal stability and improvement. However, this policy faces criticism and risks, as it is perceived as burdening household and investor incomes, particularly for workers, retirees, and small and medium-sized businesses.

On the other hand, there is currently speculation that the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates in the near future to curb inflation. However, uncertainty surrounding Japan's large fiscal stimulus and concerns about debt/deficit could keep the Japanese yen vulnerable. This situation creates a dynamic where the yen could strengthen slightly if the BoJ actually hikes or raises interest rates. However, structural pressures on the yen remain, such as debt, fiscal pressures, and stimulus, which could cause the yen to remain relatively weak.

The Japanese government currently carries a public debt burden, with a debt-to-GDP ratio among the highest in the world. For the coming fiscal year, the Japanese Ministry of Finance has requested a substantial allocation for debt service costs of approximately 32.4 trillion yen. This figure represents an increase of approximately 15% compared to the previous year, indicating that interest and debt costs are rising, along with rising government bond yields. However, in an effort to improve the fiscal situation, the government plans to reduce new government bond issuance compared to the previous period.

Although the GBP is currently trending higher, there are risks and uncertainties if UK fiscal policy creates uncertainty, especially if the market perceives a potential economic slowdown. Or if the Bank of Japan actually raises interest rates in response to the weakening JPY. This could potentially cause the JPY to strengthen against the GBP.

GBPJPY daily forecast: A realistic daily range is estimated between 206.00 and 208.00. Key support is around 206.00 - 206.50, and key resistance is around 208.00 - 208.50.

GBPJPY D1

The GBPJPY pair is near the upper band on the daily timeframe. The Bollinger Bands are drawing an ascending channel with widening band spacing, reflecting bullish sentiment with high volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) is below the middle band, drawing an ascending channel; the price is well above the line, indicating a strong uptrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) is well below the lower band, drawing an ascending channel, indicating bullish sentiment over the longer term.

The VB High TDI indicator is at 66, and the VB Low is at 46. The 20-point difference reflects the volatility value on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line is at 56 with a horizontal channel, indicating greater bullish than bearish weighting.

The RSI Price Line is at 64, with a channel sloping upwards, crossing the TSL, indicating an uptrend.

The Trade Signal Line is at 63 with an ascending channel, indicating an uptrend.

GBPJPY H4

The GBP/JPY price movement on the H4 timeframe is above the upper band. The Bollinger bands are expanding, reflecting increased market volatility, while GBP has strengthened significantly against JPY.

The 50-day moving average (MA) below the middle band represents an upward channel; prices well above this line indicate a strong uptrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) is well below the lower band, suggesting a slightly flat channel and a longer-term sideways trend.

The TDI indicator's VB High indicator is at 74, and its VB Low indicator is at 47. The difference of 27 reflects the volatility value on the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base Line is at 61 with a horizontal channel, indicating a greater bullish bias than bearish bias.

The RSI Price Line is at 71, with an upward channel crossing the MBL from below, indicating an uptrend in the overbought zone.

The Trade Signal Line is at 63, with an upward channel crossing the MBL from below, indicating an uptrend.

 

[radex78]

The Canadian Dollar Strengthens as Macroeconomic Data Points to Improvement

The USD/CAD currency pair drew a bearish candle on Thursday, extending the previous day's decline. The price formed a high of 1.40498, a low of 1.40277, and a close of 1.40281. The downtrend has crossed the middle band, seeking the next support target near the lower band.

The Canadian Dollar's strength appears to be largely influenced by improving Canadian economic data. Recently, the Bank of Canada (BoC) has been in the spotlight due to improving Canadian macroeconomic data. The service sector has returned to growth, with the services PMI above 50, signaling more stable Canadian economic growth.

Today, Statistics Canada will release GDP data, which could be a key factor in Canadian dollar volatility. Many analysts expect the Canadian economy to grow in the third quarter, projecting around +0.5% quarter-on-quarter. According to Forexfactory, monthly GDP is estimated to grow by 0.2%, compared to the previous release of -0.3% contraction. If GDP shows positive growth, especially higher than consensus, it could signal that the Canadian economy is recovering from its contraction. Conversely, if the figure is weak or even contractionary, it could raise expectations of further monetary easing by the Bank of Canada (BoC), which could weaken the CAD. Because the market is currently factoring in expectations about BoC monetary policy, the GDP result could be a short-term catalyst.

On the other hand, market expectations of a Fed rate cut also support the Canadian dollar, as a Fed rate cut could impact lower-yielding US bonds, making deposits and USD-based instruments less attractive. Theoretically, global investors will shift funds to other countries offering higher yields, reducing demand for the USD, which in turn weakens the USD.

According to the CME Group's Fedwatch tool, the probability of an interest rate cut is currently estimated at 86.9%. Market expectations are for a 25 basis point rate cut at the Fed's December 10, 2025, meeting. Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the USD's performance against six major currencies, is showing a weakening trend. The DXY is below 100.00. At the time of writing, it was at 99.556, a decrease of approximately -0.01%. The DXY has shown a bearish candle in the past two days and is currently near its previous low, which technically could be an important support area.

The Canadian dollar is also correlated with oil prices; rising oil prices tend to support the CAD. Currently, oil prices, although under slight pressure, saw a recovery yesterday, with WTI prices showing signs of an increase.

For the USDCAD price forecast, the main support area is focused on the 1.3950-1.3920 range as the lower boundary of a more stable trading range. A breakout of this level indicates strong selling pressure. The main resistance area is the 1.4100-1.4150 range, which represents the psychological level of the previous swing low.

USDCAD D1

The Canadian dollar is currently below the lower band on the daily timeframe. The Bollinger Bands have drawn a slightly ascending channel with slightly narrowed band spacing, indicating bullish sentiment and fading volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) above the lower band has drawn an ascending channel, with the price slightly above the line, indicating the 50-day moving average could act as dynamic support. The 200-day moving average (MA) below the lower band has drawn a flat channel, indicating sideways movement over the longer term.

The TDI indicator's VB High indicator is at 71, and its VB Low indicator is at 45. The difference of 26 reflects the volatility level on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line is at 58 within a descending channel, indicating greater bullishness than bearishness, and potential for a decline.

The RSI Price Line is pointing at 49, with a descending channel crossing the TSL from the upside, indicating a downtrend.

USDCAD H4

The Canadian dollar is near the lower band line on the H4 timeframe. The Bollinger bands are expanding, suggesting bearish sentiment and increased market volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) below the middle band forms a horizontal channel, with prices below the line indicating a downtrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) near the lower band draws a horizontal channel, indicating a sideways market over the longer term.

The TDI indicator's VB High is 74, and its VB Low is 35. The difference of 39 reflects the volatility value on the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base Line is 55 with a descending channel, indicating a greater bullish bias than bearish bias, suggesting a potential downside.

The RSI Price Line is 35 with a descending channel, indicating a downtrend near the overbought level.

The Trade Signal Line is 36 with a descending channel, indicating a downtrend.

 

[radex78]

Gold prices surged amid heightened market expectations for a Fed rate cut.

Last weekend, gold prices extended their gains on December 28, 2025, drawing a long-bodied bullish candle with almost no shadow. Gold prices reached a high of $4226, a low of $4156, and a close of $4223. This high price approached the historical high of $4244 reached on November 13.

Gold prices are generally bullish, based on short- to medium-term fundamental sentiment, supported by market expectations regarding US central bank policy and the global economy.

The market has been anticipating that the Fed will cut interest rates soon, with expectations that a cut will occur at its December meeting. According to the CME Group's Fedwatch tool, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 bps is 87.4%, and the probability of the Fed maintaining interest rates in the 3.75%-4.00% range is 12.6%.

Expectations of a rate cut have weakened the US dollar, making low-yielding assets less attractive. The DXY is seen moving below the 100 level, currently around 99.479. Since gold is priced in USD, a weaker US dollar supports bullish gold prices.

Today's key data focus is on the US economic calendar, particularly the release of the ISM manufacturing PMI and the Chicago PMI, which will be released early in the US session. Weaker-than-expected data could strengthen speculation of an interest rate cut, thus benefiting gold. Conversely, stronger data could dampen expectations of a cut and support the USD.

Current global risk sentiment is fraught with concerns about a recession. The OECD/World Bank projects a slowdown of 2.3%-2.9% in 2025, heightening recession fears. In times of global economic and political uncertainty, gold tends to function as a safe-haven asset. The greater the concerns, the higher the demand for gold. Meanwhile, demand from central banks has also reportedly surged, providing a solid price floor for gold. Central banks such as the People's Bank of China (PBOC), the National Bank of Poland (NBP), and the Central Bank of Turkey (CBRT) are some examples of global central banks that are strategic buyers of gold.

The unstable global economic environment and the potential for US dollar weakness continue to support gold, which is seen as a hedge, supported by monetary policy, institutional demand, and the potential for USD weakness.

Today's gold price forecast: strong support is estimated at around $4,132 and resistance at around $4,246-$4,277. The market is awaiting US PMI data. If it's weaker than forecast, gold's resistance target will be around $4,246, with a potential further increase to $4,277. However, a correction could occur if there's significant profit-taking or the US PMI data is surprisingly strong. If the price falls below $4,180, the short-term bullish trend could be threatened.

XAUUSD D1

The gold price on the daily timeframe is currently moving near the upper band. The Bollinger Bands are drawing a slightly ascending channel with narrower band spacing, indicating weak bullish sentiment and moderate volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) is below the middle band, drawing an ascending channel; prices above the line reflect a strengthening uptrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) is well below the lower band, drawing an ascending channel, indicating bullish sentiment over the longer term.

The VB High TDI indicator is pointing at 77, and the VB Low at 39. The difference of 38 reflects the volatility value on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line is pointing at 58 with a descending channel, indicating greater bullishness than bearishness, and potential downside.

The RSI Price Line is pointing at 61 with an ascending channel crossing the TSL and MBL from the bottom, indicating an uptrend.

The Trade Signal Line is pointing at 57 with an ascending channel, indicating an uptrend.

XAUUSD H4

The gold price on the H4 timeframe is outside the upper band. The Bollinger Bands appear to be expanding with an ascending channel, indicating bullish sentiment and increased volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) near the lower band has drawn a slight ascending channel, with the price well above the line indicating a strong uptrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) below the lower band has drawn a horizontal channel, indicating a longer-term sideways trend.

The TDI indicator's VB High indicator is at 68, and its VB Low indicator is at 44. The difference of 22 reflects the volatility value on the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base Line is at 56 with an ascending channel, indicating a greater bullish bias than bearish bias.

The RSI Price Line is at 66 with a channel sloping upwards, indicating an uptrend.

The Trade Signal Line is at 62 with an ascending channel, indicating an uptrend.

 

[radex78]

WTI oil prices rose on the back of OPEC+'s latest decision on production policy.

WTI oil prices traded around 59.37 on Monday, December 1st, drawing a bullish medium-bodied candle with a slight shadow at the top of the candle. WTI oil formed a high of 59.79, a low of 58.69, and a close of 59.39.

Crude oil prices were supported by strong buying interest after OPEC+ decided to halt all production increases starting in the first quarter of 2026. This could be a significant shift after several months of increased supply, with OPEC+ adding nearly 2.9 million barrels per day since April 2025. The OPEC+ policy change comes against the backdrop of sensitive geopolitical events, as the US seeks to de-escalate the war between Russia and Ukraine. The US has suggested a peace deal would include easing sanctions on Russia, which could potentially increase global oil supply.

The latest OPEC+ policy is seen as an effort to prevent price pressures from potential increases in supply from outside OPEC+. However, this sentiment appears to be limited by persistent concerns about a global oversupply from non-OPEC+ producers, particularly the US, which could potentially depress prices in the medium term until 2026. Data shows that US oil production remains high. US oil production data continues to reach historic highs, a fundamental factor that is bearish on oil prices. Monthly production data shows US crude oil production at 13.844 million barrels per day, up from 13.800 million barrels per day the previous month.

High supply from the US, which is not part of OPEC+, could undermine OPEC+'s efforts to balance the market. The market is concerned that increased US oil production will flood the market, especially if global demand slows. This strong production data reinforces the fundamental analysis that XTIUSD faces significant challenges in maintaining price gains.

From a geopolitical risk perspective, tensions in the Middle East, such as attacks on commercial vessels in the Red Sea, are supporting factors for rising oil prices. These events can increase shipping costs and cause delays, creating a geopolitical risk premium.

The current oil demand outlook remains shrouded in uncertainty, largely related to the Fed's interest rate policy and the economic slowdown in several major regions, which are contributing to price pressures. US economic data, particularly interest rates and inflation, will continue to be a factor of concern as they can impact the US dollar.

The XTIUSD market currently appears to be in a tug-of-war between OPEC+ support and supply restrictions, geopolitical risks, and pressure from potential oversupply from non-OPEC+ groups and global demand uncertainty.

The daily forecast for XTIUSD is for key support in the range of 58.00-58.50, with key resistance in the range of 60.00-60.60. A break below 57 could confirm a dominant bearish trend. Meanwhile, a break above 61 could pave the way for higher resistance in the range of 62.00-63.00.

XTIUSD D1

WTI oil price movement on the daily timeframe is currently near the middle band. The Bollinger Bands have drawn a slightly descending channel with narrow band spacing, indicating bearish sentiment and relatively low volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) above the middle band has drawn a descending channel, while prices below the line indicate a weakening downtrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) is well above the upper band, drawing a descending channel, indicating bearish sentiment over the longer term.

The TDI indicator's VB High is at 56, and its VB Low is at 34. The difference of 32 reflects the volatility value on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line is at 45 with an ascending channel, indicating a greater bearish weighting than bullish weighting, suggesting upside potential.

The RSI Price Line is at 47 with an ascending channel crossing the TSL and MBL from below, indicating an uptrend.

The Trade Signal Line is at 44 with an ascending channel, indicating an uptrend.

XTIUSD H4

The WTI oil price on the H4 timeframe is below the upper band line. The Bollinger Bands draw an ascending channel with slightly wider band spacing, indicating bullish sentiment and increasing volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) below the middle band draws a descending channel, while prices above the line indicate a trend transition to bullish. The 200-day moving average (MA) below the upper band draws a flat channel, indicating a sideways trend over a longer period.

The TDI indicator's VB High indicator is at 62, and its VB Low indicator is at 36. The difference of 26 reflects the volatility value on the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base Line is at 49 with an ascending channel, indicating a greater weighting of bears than bulls, and potential upside.

The RSI Price Line is at 58 with a horizontal channel, indicating a sideways market.

The Trade Signal Line is at 58 with a horizontal channel, indicating a sideways market.

 

[radex78]

Australian Dollar Strengthens Ahead of Australian GDP Data

The Australian dollar strengthened during Tuesday's trading session. The AUD/USD pair drew a long-bodied bullish candle with small shadows at the top and bottom of the candle. The AUD/USD price formed a high of 0.65709, a low of 0.65346, and a close of 0.65647.

The rise in this currency pair was supported by improving market sentiment and a weakening US dollar due to rising expectations of a Fed interest rate cut at its December 10th meeting. Currently, the US dollar index (DXY) remains below the 100-day level, at 99.356 at the time of writing, having reached a low of 99.009. The DXY measures the USD's performance against six other major currencies. According to the Fedwatch tool, the probability of a Fed rate cut is currently 82.9%, while the probability of the Fed maintaining interest rates is 10.2%. Expectations of a Fed interest rate easing could weaken the USD against other currencies, including the AUD.

Another factor supporting the AUD/USD is persistently high inflation from the RBA, which has led the market to believe the RBA will not rush to cut interest rates, thus maintaining the attractiveness of the AUD. Meanwhile, the persistent weakness of the US dollar (USD) reflects a series of weaker US economic indicators, particularly in the manufacturing sector, which reinforces expectations of a Fed rate cut in December.

Today, market attention will focus on Australian GDP data and US economic data, including the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change and the ISM Services PMI. These economic data could trigger market volatility.

External factors such as commodity prices, including Australian exports, and global demand also remain relevant. The AUD is highly sensitive to the commodity cycle and Australian exports. This is important for the AUD, a commodity currency. Several key Australian exports generate significant foreign exchange earnings, such as iron ore, Australia's largest export. In addition, coal, natural gas, agricultural products, and gold also contribute significantly to Australia's foreign exchange reserves.

Overall, fundamental conditions currently support the AUD against the USD in the short to medium term, especially if Australian monetary policy remains hawkish while the USD faces potential easing. However, there are risk warnings if the global economy weakens or if US economic data returns to strength and the USD strengthens, which could put pressure on the AUD, especially if commodity demand declines. Several factors of concern include inflation and the Australian GDP. Quarterly GDP expectations are expected to rise slightly to 0.7% from the previous 0.6%. Higher actual data support the AUD, while weaker data could weaken the AUD.

Today's key US economic data is the ADP non-farm employment change, which is expected to come in at 5k, significantly lower than the previously revised 42k. The ISM services PMI is expected to come in at 52.0, down from the previously revised 52.4.

The forecasted price range today, AUDUSD: strong support is around 0.6480 - 0.6450, and strong resistance is around 0.6650 - 0.6680.

AUDUSD D1

The AUDUSD pair is currently near the upper band line on the daily timeframe. The Bollinger Bands draw a flat channel with wide spacing, indicating range movement with high market volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) above the middle band draws a flat channel, with prices above the line indicating an uptrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) above the lower band draws an ascending channel, indicating bullish sentiment over the longer term.

The TDI indicator's VB High shows 57, and its VB Low shows 36. The difference of 21 reflects the volatility value of AUDUSD on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line shows 47 with an ascending channel, indicating greater bearishness than bullishness, and potential upside.

The RSI Price Line shows 58 with an ascending channel crossing the TSL and MBL from below, indicating an uptrend.

The Trade Signal Line shows 52 with an ascending channel crossing the MBL from below, indicating an uptrend.

AUDUSD H4

The AUDUSD pair is near the upper band on the H4 timeframe. The Bollinger Bands are drawing an ascending channel with slightly narrowed band spacing, indicating bullish sentiment and slightly decreased volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) is below the 200-day moving average (MA), drawing an ascending channel, with the price well above the line, indicating a strong uptrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) is below the lower band, drawing a horizontal channel, indicating a sideways market over the longer term.

The TDI indicator's VB High is at 72, and its VB Low is at 52. The difference of 20 reflects the volatility value on the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base Line is at 62 within an ascending channel, indicating a greater bullish bias than bearish bias, suggesting upside potential.

The RSI Price Line is at 61 with a horizontal channel crossing the TSL from below, indicating a sideways market.

The Trade Signal Line is at 60 with a horizontal channel crossing the MBL from above, indicating a sideways market.