Daily Analysis Forex Mix

[radex78]

GBP/USD attempted a recovery after hitting a low of 1.30101

The GBPUSD price movement on Wednesday, November 5th, attempted to recover from losses by drawing a medium-bodied bullish candle. The price formed a high of 1.30528, a low of 1.30100, and a close of 1.30495.

The GBP/USD pair is trending downwards to a seven-month low due to negative sentiment toward the pound sterling. Recently, British Finance Minister Rachel Reeves signaled the possibility of tax increases in the upcoming budget, raising fiscal concerns. The UK economy has delivered less than encouraging data, with inflation remaining high at 3.8% year-on-year, but economic growth and productivity are weak. This situation raises doubts about the Bank of England's interest rate policy, which could be forced to hold or even lower interest rates. Today, the BoE will decide on the official interest rate, which is expected to remain at 4%. An unexpected decision, such as a rate cut, could further pressure the GBP. Conversely, a higher-than-expected rate increase could support GBP appreciation.

On the other hand, the US dollar is relatively strong due to global conditions of greater stock sell-offs and riskier assets, prompting many investors to return to safe-haven assets, including the US dollar. Furthermore, expectations that the Fed will be more cautious in cutting interest rates are supporting the strengthening of the USD amid the ongoing US federal government shutdown, which is now the longest in history.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the USD's performance against six major currencies, continues to show strength, reaching a high of 100.360, a low of 100.059, and closing at 100.182. The DXY's rise has crossed four moving averages: the 20, 50, 100, and 200 moving averages. Some analysts say a DXY above 100 indicates greater USD strength.

With weak GBP fundamentals and a strong USD, the structure suggests the risk of GBP/USD falling further, or at least fluctuating in a sideways to bearish range. However, a change could occur if significant positive news emerges for the UK, such as economic data far above expectations or the Bank of England (BoE) giving a hawkish signal, which could trigger a brief rally.

Today's forecast price range: resistance around 1.3250 - 1.3300, and support around 1.2950 - 1.3000. A realistic range today is estimated at around 1.3000 - 1.3300.

GBPUSD D1

The GBPUSD pair is currently moving near the lower band line on the daily timeframe. The Bollinger Bands are drawing a descending channel with widening band spacing, indicating bearish sentiment and increasing volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) below the upper band is drawing a descending channel, with prices moving away from the line, indicating a strong downtrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) below the middle band is drawing an ascending channel, indicating bullish sentiment over the longer term.

The VB High TDI indicator is pointing at 53, and the VB Low is pointing at 28. The difference of 25 reflects the volatility value on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line is pointing at 41 within a descending channel, indicating a greater bearish weight than bullish weight.

The RSI Price Line is pointing at 24 within a descending channel, indicating a downtrend in the oversold level.

The Trade Signal Line is pointing at 28 within a descending channel, indicating a downtrend.

GBPUSD H4

The GBPUSD pair is located between the middle and lower bands on the H4 timeframe. The Bollinger Bands draw a descending channel with wide spacing, indicating bearish sentiment with moderate volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) near the upper band draws a descending channel, with prices well below the line indicating a strong downtrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) is well above the upper band, drawing a descending channel, indicating bearish sentiment over the longer term.

The TDI indicator's VB High indicator is at 39, and its VB Low indicator is at 23. The difference of 16 reflects the volatility value on the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base Line is at 31 with a flat channel, indicating a greater weighting of bears than bulls.

The RSI Price Line is at 38, with an ascending channel crossing the TSL and MBL from below, indicating an uptrend.

The Trade Signal Line is at 28, with a channel curving upwards, indicating an uptrend.

 

[radex78]

Oil prices are neutral, tending towards bearish amid oversupply concerns

The price of WTI crude oil on Thursday tended to be neutral with a bearish bias. The price drew a bearish candle with a short body and long shadows at the top and bottom of the candle. WTI oil prices formed a high of 60.28, a low of 58.81, and a close of 59.39. The price range moved near the middle band line.

Fundamentally, oil prices are currently under pressure. Concerns about oversupply remain a key issue in fundamental oil analysis. The latest data on US oil stocks from the EIA showed a significant surge of 5.2 million barrels, far exceeding market expectations. This increase in inventories adds to concerns about oversupply in the global market. US crude oil production is reported to remain at a record level of around 13.65 million barrels per day, further strengthening the supply side.

OPEC+ began cutting production in early November, supporting oil prices. However, the impact of excess supply from the US and concerns about weakening global demand tend to polarize market sentiment.

Global oil demand is vulnerable to global economic downturns, as US manufacturing data and Chinese economic activity show weakness. This puts pressure on demand. Furthermore, a strengthening US dollar can also be a factor in weakening oil prices. A stronger US dollar makes commodities denominated in US dollars more expensive for holders of other currencies, thus suppressing relative demand.

The market currently appears to be caught between bullish factors stemming from OPEC+ cuts and bearish factors stemming from excess supply from the US and weak demand. Recent reports indicate that the oil market remains clouded by concerns about oversupply and weak economic data.

Considering the Doji-like candlestick pattern, this reflects market indecision. Overall, fundamental conditions tend to be neutral to slightly bearish, with OPEC+ cuts as a positive factor and weak global demand and oversupply as a negative factor.

Current geopolitical factors are less supportive of rising oil prices. While geopolitical tensions in the Middle East typically support increases, peace or ceasefires in conflict zones tend to depress prices further.

Today's XTIUSD price range is estimated to be within a reasonable range of $57-$63.

XTIUSD D1

Oil prices on the daily timeframe are near the middle band line. The Bollinger Bands have drawn a slightly descending channel with wide band spacing, indicating weak bearish sentiment with fairly high volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) below the upper band has drawn a slightly descending channel; prices below the line reflect a downtrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) above the upper band has drawn a slightly descending channel, indicating bearish sentiment over the longer term.

The TDI indicator's VB High is at 58, and its VB Low is at 30. The difference of 28 reflects the volatility value on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line is pointing at 44 with a flat channel, indicating a greater weighting of bears than bulls.

The RSI Price Line is pointing at 44 with a descending channel crossing the TSL from above, indicating a downtrend.

The Trade Signal Line is pointing at 48 with a descending channel, indicating a downtrend.

XTIUSD H4

The WTI oil price on the H4 timeframe is slightly above the lower band. The Bollinger Bands draw a slightly descending channel with slightly wider band spacing, indicating weak bearish sentiment and slightly increased volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) near the middle band draws a slightly descending channel, with the price slightly below the line, indicating a downtrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) is slightly above the 50-day moving average (MA), drawing a smoother, flat channel, indicating bearish sentiment over the longer term.

The TDI indicator's VB High indicator is at 59, and its VB Low indicator is at 37. The difference of 22 reflects the volatility value on the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base Line is at 48 with a flat channel, indicating a greater weighting of bears than bulls.

The RSI Price Line is at 39 with a flat channel, indicating a sideways market.

The Trade Signal Line is at 40 with a flat channel, indicating a sideways market.

 

[radex78]

Silver prices corrected, awaiting new triggers

The XAGUSD pair moved steadily within a narrow range on Friday, November 7th, drawing a small-bodied bullish candle with a relatively long shadow at the top of the candle. Silver prices reached a high of $ 48,868, a low of $ 47,627, and closed at $48,225.

Several factors influence silver prices, particularly industrial demand and inventories, US monetary policy, US dollar strength, market sentiment, and safe-haven trading.

From an industrial demand perspective, silver is gaining attention as a precious metal. It is primarily used in solar panels, electric vehicles, and various electronic devices. According to analysis, more than 60% of silver demand comes from these industrial sectors. Currently, despite high demand for green energy, the gloomy global manufacturing environment is one of the reasons holding back silver's rise. Physical supply is said to be under pressure, particularly because silver is often a byproduct of mining other metals, making it difficult to quickly increase production when demand increases. Under these conditions, structurally strong industrial demand and limited supply conditions support silver's resilience or even further gains.

Silver prices are also heavily influenced by the Fed's monetary policy and the US dollar, as silver is quoted in USD. When the dollar weakens or interest rates are expected to fall, precious metals like silver often benefit. However, there is currently an element of uncertainty in the US economy, delayed by the longest government shutdown in US history. Expectations of interest rate cuts are shifting, leaving the market somewhat dependent on the next catalyst.

Although silver's demand is primarily driven by the industrial sector, this precious metal also possesses safe-haven characteristics, albeit less strongly than gold. During times of global uncertainty, demand for silver can surge as a hedge. However, because prices have risen significantly from previous levels, there is a risk of a correction or consolidation, and the market may be waiting for a new trigger before a sharp move.

In the long term, silver remains structurally bullish due to strong industrial demand and limited supply. However, in the short term, the price is somewhat mixed without a strong catalyst, and prices could move sideways or correct slightly. The main risks are a strengthening US dollar or US economic data indicating economic resilience, which could diminish silver's appeal as a hedge.

The silver price forecast in a conservative scenario: support is in the range of 45,720-43,660, and resistance is around 49,000. If a breakout occurs, silver has the potential to reach 51,670.

XAGUSD D1

The silver price on the daily timeframe is currently below the middle band. The Bollinger Bands have drawn a flat channel with moderate band spacing, indicating sideways movement with moderate volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) above the lower band draws an upward channel; prices above the line indicate an uptrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) is well below the lower band, drawing an upward channel, indicating bullish sentiment over the longer term.

The VB High TDI indicator is pointing at 90, and the VB Low is pointing at 42. The difference of 48 reflects the volatility value on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line is pointing at 66 within a downward channel, indicating greater bearishness than bullishness, and potential for a decline.

The RSI Price Line is pointing at 50, with an upward channel crossing the TSL from the bottom, indicating an uptrend.

The Trade Signal Line points to 49 within an ascending channel, indicating an uptrend.

XAGUSD H4

Silver prices on the H4 timeframe are moving above the middle band line. The Bollinger Bands are drawing a slightly upward channel with narrowing band spacing, indicating bullish sentiment with slightly decreasing volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) near the middle band is drawing an upward channel, with prices slightly above the line indicating a weak uptrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) above the 50-day moving average (MA) is drawing an upward channel, indicating bullish sentiment over the longer term.

The VB High TDI indicator is pointing at 61, and the VB Low is pointing at 37. The difference of 24 reflects the volatility value on the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base Line is pointing at 49 with a flat channel, indicating a greater bearish weight than bullish weight.

The RSI Price Line is pointing at 51 with a flat channel crossing the TSL from above, indicating a sideways market.

The Trade Signal Line is pointing at 53 with a flat channel, indicating a sideways market.

 

[radex78]

Gold prices rise as interest rate cut expectations grow

Gold prices surged on Monday, November 10, 2025, drawing a long-bodied bullish candle with almost no shadow. The price formed a high of $4115 and a low of $3997, closing at $4110. The gold price surge has crossed the middle band line from the downside.

The gold price surge coincided with news that the US government could reopen soon after the longest government shutdown in US history in 2025. The United States Senate passed a stopgap funding bill on Sunday, with a 60-40 vote in favor. The bill now heads to the House of Representatives for President Donald Trump's signature. House Speaker Mike Johnson announced Monday that he believes they have the votes to pass the stopgap bill.

Gold prices are often driven by factors from the US. Recent US economic data, showing a weakening labor market and declining consumer sentiment, have raised expectations of an interest rate cut at the Fed's December 2025 meeting. Lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold and tend to weaken the US dollar.

Concerns about global growth and a weakening US economy, along with the US government shutdown, despite signs of an end, have prompted investors to turn to safe-haven assets like gold.

Gold is often negatively correlated with the US dollar. Recently, the US dollar index (DXY) weakened below the psychological level of 100 and has fallen again to a low of 99.455.

Furthermore, continued central bank purchases also provide psychological support and strong fundamentals for gold prices in the long term. The bullish factor on Monday concludes that the market's focus is on weak US data and the potential for interest rate cuts.

Today's forecast price ranges worth noting include a potential low of $3,960, a high of $4,150, and an intraday range of $4,000-$4,110.

XAUUSD D1

The gold price on the daily timeframe is slightly above the middle band line. The Bollinger Bands draw a horizontal channel with wide spacing, indicating a sideways market with high volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) near the lower band draws an upward channel, with the price moving away from the line reflecting a strengthening uptrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) is well below the lower band, draws an upward channel, indicating longer-term bullish sentiment.

The VB High TDI indicator is pointing at 92, and the VB Low is pointing at 43. The difference of 49 reflects the volatility value on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line is pointing at 67 with a descending channel, indicating greater bullishness than bearishness, and potential downside.

The RSI Price Line is pointing at 54 with a channel sloping upwards, crossing the TSL from below, indicating an uptrend.

The Trade Signal Line is pointing at 50 with an ascending channel, indicating an uptrend.

XAUUSD H4

The gold price on the H4 timeframe is near the upper band. The Bollinger bands appear to be expanding, reflecting rising volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) is slightly below the middle band, drawing an upward channel; the price is moving away from the line, indicating a strong uptrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) is slightly above the middle band, drawing an upward channel, indicating bullish sentiment over the longer term.

The VB High TDI indicator is pointing at 69, and the VB Low is pointing at 35. The difference of 34 reflects the volatility value on the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base Line is pointing at 52 within an upward channel, indicating a greater bullish weighting than bearishness.

The RSI Price Line is pointing at 75, with an upward channel crossing the TSL from below, indicating an uptrend in the overbought zone.

The Trade Signal Line is pointing at 68 within an upward channel, indicating an uptrend.

 

[radex78]

WTI oil prices rise as USD falls

The XTI/USD pair, the commodity pair for WTI oil against the US dollar, rose on Tuesday, drawing a long-bodied bullish candle with small shadows at the top and bottom of the candle. WTI oil prices formed a high of 61.10, a low of 59.60, and a close at 60.81. The rise in oil prices approached the 50-day moving average (MA) line.

Tuesday's oil price increase was the largest increase since the beginning of the week, after a sideways movement near the middle band. The weakening US dollar was one of the reasons for the increase in oil prices, as oil is quoted in US dollars. The weakening US dollar encouraged holders of other currencies to purchase oil at lower prices.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the USD against six major currencies, fell on Tuesday from a high of 99.738 to a low of 99.297 and closed at 99.447. News of the end of the US government shutdown appeared to weigh on the US dollar amid expectations of a Fed rate cut. On Monday, Democratic lawmakers agreed to support the government funding bill in the US Senate and advance it to the Republican-controlled House. The reopening of US federal agencies after the longest shutdown in history will resume government spending, a scenario that will increase Oil demand.

In terms of global supply, the market is experiencing concerns about oversupply from major economies, including OPEC+. Some analysts say OPEC+ oil production will continue to increase, targeting 137,000 barrels per day in December. This excess supply could put pressure on oil prices. However, the risk of supply disruptions caused by US sanctions on Russia and geopolitical disruptions could support short-term oil prices.

Data on US oil inventories and refinery utilization rates suggest consumption may increase, supporting demand. However, on a macro level, the global economy is relatively weak, so long-term demand could be restrained, putting downward pressure on oil prices. Geopolitical risk sentiment could also trigger a risk premium if a conflict escalates, potentially leading to rapid price increases.

The general outlook for oil fundamentals in the short term suggests price support due to supply risks and rising consumption. In the medium term, there is pressure from rising production coupled with subdued global demand. Oil prices appear to be more neutral to slightly bullish, with the caution that upside is limited. Today's potential oil price forecast is for support at 59.00 and resistance at 61.00. The broader range is 57.50-62.50.

XTIUSD D1

The WTI oil price on the daily timeframe is trying to move away from the middle band line. The Bollinger Bands draw a flat channel with wide band spacing, indicating a sideways market and high volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) below the upper band draws a slight downward channel, with the price just below the line reflecting a fading downtrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) above the upper band draws a descending channel, indicating bearish sentiment over the longer term.

The TDI indicator's VB High is at 57, and its VB Low is at 31. The difference of 26 reflects the volatility value on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line is at 44 with a flat channel, indicating a greater bearish weight than bullishness.

The RSI Price Line is at 51, with an upward channel crossing the TSL from the bottom, indicating an uptrend.

The Trade Signal Line points to 48 with a slightly ascending channel, indicating an uptrend.

XTIUSD H4

Oil prices on the H4 timeframe are near the upper band line. Here, the Bollinger Bands appear to be expanding, with the upper and lower bands moving away from each other, indicating increased market volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) above the middle band draws a channel sloping upwards; the price is well above the line, indicating a strong uptrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) above the 50-day moving average (MA) draws a slightly descending channel; the price has crossed the line from below, indicating a potential trend change.

The TDI indicator's VB High indicator is at 59, and its VB Low indicator is at 36. The difference of 23 reflects the volatility value on the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base Line is at 47 with a flat channel, indicating a greater bearish bias than bullish bias.

The RSI Price Line is at 64 with a flat channel, indicating a fading uptrend.

The Trade Signal Line is at 56 with an ascending channel, indicating an uptrend.

 

[radex78]

AUD/USD rose, awaiting the jobs report.

The AUD/USD pair rose, drawing a bullish candle on Wednesday, November 12th, with a long body and shadows at the top and bottom of the candle. The AUD/USD price formed a high of 0.65502, a low of 0.65162, and a close of 0.65429.

The Australian economy appears quite resilient, with commodity exports supporting it, and Australia is often considered a risk-on currency when global risk appetite improves. If global risk appetite improves and commodity demand increases, the AUD could receive a boost.

Today, the market will focus on Australian employment data, which could be the main catalyst for the AUD today. Consensus estimates a job increase of 20k, up from the previous increase of 14.9k. A stronger figure above 20,000 would be considered bullish for the AUD. Strong data raises expectations that the RBA may need to maintain high interest rates for longer or even consider a hike, supporting the AUD. Conversely, a weak figure would be considered bearish, indicating a weakening labor market and reducing pressure on the RBA to tighten policy. Australia's unemployment rate is expected to be 4.4%, up from 4.5% previously. A lower actual value tends to support the AUD, and likewise, a higher reading could pressure the AUD.

The AUD is also known as a commodity currency, sensitive to the price of iron ore and coal. Rising commodity prices typically support the AUD, while falling prices tend to pressure the AUD.

On the other hand, the USD is generally strengthening, driven by expectations of a hawkish Fed policy to control inflation. The DXY is currently at 99.505, slightly up from its previous low of 99.287. With no high-impact data releases, investors will be paying close attention to comments from Federal Reserve (Fed) officials and the House of Representatives' vote on a funding bill to officially end the government shutdown. According to the Fedwatch tool, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates is 65.4%, and the probability of maintaining rates in the 3.75%-4.00% range is 34.6%. This means the market is starting to be optimistic about the possibility of a rate cut at the December meeting.

Ahead of the release of Australian employment data, price movements are expected to be volatile. A bullish scenario would occur if Australian employment data is significantly better than expected, overcoming concerns about the Fed's hawkish policy. A bearish scenario would occur if Australian employment data disappoints and the USD continues to strengthen, driven by safe-haven demand or Fed expectations.

The forecasted AUDUSD price range is based on the main support level of 0.6480 - 0.6500, with the main resistance level at 0.6580 - 0.6600.

AUDUSD D1

The Australian dollar is trading between the middle and upper band lines on the daily timeframe. The Bollinger Bands are drawing a flat channel with wide band spacing, indicating range movement with high volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) below the upper band is drawing a flat channel; prices below the band indicate a downtrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) near the lower band is drawing an ascending channel, indicating bullish sentiment over the longer term.

The TDI indicator's VB High is at 57, and its VB Low is at 37. The difference of 20 reflects the volatility value on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line is at 47 with a descending channel, indicating a greater bearish bias than bullish bias.

The RSI Price Line is at 50 with a horizontal channel, indicating a sideways market.

The Trade Signal Line is at 45 with a horizontal channel, indicating a sideways market.

AUDUSD H4

The Australian dollar is hovering between the middle and upper bands on the H4 timeframe. The Bollinger Bands are drawing an ascending channel, with the bands slightly narrowing, indicating bullish sentiment and slightly decreasing volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) below the middle band is drawing a descending channel; prices above the line indicate an uptrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) below the upper band is drawing a flat channel, indicating a sideways market over the longer term.

The VB High TDI indicator is pointing at 66, and the VB Low is pointing at 34. The difference of 32 reflects the volatility value on the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base Line is pointing at 50 within an ascending channel, indicating the price is in a neutral position with potential for upward movement.

The RSI Price Line is pointing at 60 with a horizontal channel crossing the TSL from below, indicating a fading uptrend.

The Trade Signal Line is pointing at 57 within an ascending channel, indicating an uptrend.

 

[radex78]

EUR/JPY Sets Record High Since the 1990s

The EUR/JPY currency pair, or the Euro against the Japanese Yen, is trending bullish. On Thursday, November 14, 2025, the EUR/JPY rose, drawing a bullish candlestick, extending its four-day winning streak. The price formed a high of 179.979, a low of 179.216, and a close of 179.798.

Positive factors supporting the Euro include the relatively stable Eurozone economic recovery and expectations that the ECB remains vigilant about inflation. Some analysts indicate a bullish bias for EUR/JPY as the Euro strengthens while the Yen weakens. The market's primary focus today is on key data that could confirm the recovery and address economic concerns. GDP is expected to grow by 0.2%. Stronger data could potentially support the Euro. The trade balance is expected to decline to 8.88 from the previous release of 9.78. Trade balance data indicate global demand for European goods. A larger surplus versus a narrowing deficit could provide positive support for the Euro.

On the other hand, the Japanese yen continues to face major pressure from the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) loose monetary policy, and Japan's low yields compared to other countries make the JPY less attractive as a safe-haven currency. Reports suggest the BoJ is cautious and remains vigilant about the yen, which is under pressure from external factors, including the US and the euro. News today indicates a 5-year JGB government bond auction, which could provide a small indication of investor appetite for Japanese assets.

The strength of the US dollar and US bond yields could have an impact if the dollar strengthens and US yields rise, allowing the JPY to weaken further, and the euro to gain momentum if global risk conditions improve.

With today's Eurozone GDP data in the spotlight and global risk sentiment tending to be cautious, but also considering the recovery, the fundamental analysis bias for EURJPY today is leaning towards strengthening the euro if the Eurozone GDP data is positive or meets recovery expectations. However, other risks, including disappointing geopolitical and economic issues or sudden changes in Bank of Japan and ECB policy, remain a concern.

Today's key resistance range is estimated at around 180 if bullish momentum remains strong, and key support is around 178 as short-term support. If it fails to hold, it could reach another support level of 176.50. The realistic range is estimated at 178.00 - 180.50, with the possibility of an upward breakout and a downward breakdown if surprising data emerges.

EURJPY D1

The euro against the Japanese yen is currently moving near the upper band line on the daily timeframe. The Bollinger Bands are drawing an ascending channel with wide band spacing, indicating strong bullish sentiment.

The 50-day moving average (MA) near the lower band is drawing an ascending channel, with the price moving closer to the line, indicating a strong uptrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) is well below the lower band, drawing an ascending channel, indicating bullish sentiment over the longer term.

The VB High TDI indicator is at 71, and the VB Low is at 47. The difference of 24 reflects the volatility value on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line is at 59, indicating a greater bullish weighting than bearish weighting.

The RSI Price Line is at 68, with a sharply ascending channel crossing the TSL and MBL from below, indicating a strong uptrend.

The Trade Signal Line is at 60, with a channel curving upward, indicating an uptrend.

EURJPY H4

The EURJPY price on the H4 timeframe is slightly below the upper band. The Bollinger Bands draw an ascending channel with wide spacing, indicating bullish sentiment and strong market volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) near the lower band draws a slight ascending channel, with the price moving away from the line, indicating a strong uptrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) is well below the lower band, draws an ascending channel, indicating bullish sentiment over the longer term.

The TDI indicator's VB High indicator is at 80, and its VB Low indicator is at 47. The difference of 33 reflects the volatility value on the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base Line is at 63 within an ascending channel, indicating a greater bullish weighting than bearishness.

The RSI Price Line is at 76 within an ascending channel, indicating the uptrend is in the overbought zone.

The Trade Signal Line is at 74 within an ascending channel, indicating a strong uptrend.

 

[radex78]

USD/CAD strengthened slightly after a positive manufacturing sales report.

On Friday, November 14, 2025, the USD/CAD pair drew a bearish candlestick, forming a half-body of the previous candlestick. The price formed a high of 1.40453, a low of 1.40141, and a close of 1.40149. The strengthening Canadian dollar limited the bullish bias from the previous day.

Statistics Canada's September 2025 Manufacturing Survey reported that manufacturing sales reached their highest level since February 2025, rising 3.3% month-over-month to $72.1 billion in September. Sales increased in 14 of 21 subsectors, led by transportation equipment +9.2% and petroleum and coal +5.3%. With the overall increase in September, total manufacturing sales rose 2.7% year-over-year. Quarterly, sales increased 2.8% to $212.3 billion in the third quarter of 2025, the largest quarterly increase since the second quarter of 2022. The petroleum and coal subsector, at +12.5%, primary metals at +6.4%, and transportation equipment at +3.2%, were the largest contributors to the increase in the third quarter of 2025.

Today, the market will focus on Canada's Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, which may provide subtle clues about future BoC policy. Monthly CPI is estimated at 0.2%, slightly up from 0.1% in the previous period. The median year-over-year CPI is estimated at 3.1%, slightly down from the previously revised 3.2%. Higher-than-expected inflation data tends to support a more hawkish BoC monetary policy stance, thus strengthening the CAD.

The Bank of Canada cut interest rates to around 2.25% in October, and the market believes the easing cycle may be nearing completion. On the other hand, the Fed is also in a position where a cut is no longer seen as a near-term certainty, thus maintaining the USD's yield advantage over the CAD.

Because the CAD is a commodity currency and is also influenced by interest rates and commodity exports, if USD yields become more attractive, the USD tends to strengthen against the CAD. Global oil prices appear to remain overshadowed by concerns about oversupply, despite Friday's rise.

However, despite the slight increase in oil prices, the CAD has not yet significantly strengthened due to interest rates and a relatively weak domestic economy. The Bank of Canada lowered its growth projections for 2025 and 2026, reflecting Canada's somewhat sluggish economic growth. On the other hand, the US economy has been relatively strong, as evidenced by several reports that support the USD. While elements are supporting the CAD, such as positive manufacturing surveys, commodities, and the potential halt to interest rate cuts, the overall situation gives the USD a slight advantage in the short term.

The market currently shows the USDCAD pair moving within a relatively narrow range, awaiting key data such as inflation data and Fed officials' speeches that could trigger a change in direction. External factors such as global risk appetite, US-Canada trade conditions, and tariffs are also cited as potential directional factors. Fundamental analysis concludes that the USDCAD pair is slightly bullish, or at least that the CAD is unlikely to strengthen strongly unless there is a major positive data surprise for Canada or a sharp rise in oil prices. However, due to the balanced conditions and the market's somewhat cautious approach, the likelihood of significant action is limited or could even move sideways with slight USD strengthening.

The forecasted daily range movement is lower support around 1.3980, and upper resistance around 1.4050. If a bullish USD bias emerges, it could reach 1.4090. Conversely, if the CAD receives support, the price could retreat to 1.3950.

USDCAD D1

The Canadian dollar is currently moving near the middle band on the daily timeframe. The Bollinger Bands draw a flat channel with wide spacing, indicating sideways movement and relatively high market volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) is slightly above the lower band, drawing an ascending channel; prices above the line reflect an uptrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) is below the 50-day moving average (MA) and draws a slightly descending channel, indicating bearish sentiment over the longer term. However, there is a golden cross signal on this timeframe.

The VB High TDI indicator is at 73, and the VB Low is at 48. The difference of 25 reflects the value of price volatility on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line is at 60 with a flat channel, indicating a greater bullish bias than bearish bias.

The RSI Price Line is at 52 with a horizontal channel, indicating a sideways movement.

The Trade Signal Line is at 54 with a descending channel, indicating a downtrend.

USDCAD H4

USDCAD is currently near the middle band line on the H4 timeframe. The Bollinger Bands are drawing a flat channel with narrow band spacing, reflecting sideways movement and low market volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) above the upper band is drawing a flat channel, with prices below the line indicating a downtrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) below the middle band is drawing a flat channel, indicating sideways movement over a longer period.

The TDI indicator's VB High is 53, and its VB Low is 27. The difference of 26 reflects the volatility value on the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base Line is pointing at 40 with a descending channel, indicating a greater bearish bias than bullish bias, suggesting a potential downside.

The RSI Price Line is pointing at 48 with a downward-sloping channel crossing the TSL, indicating a downtrend.

The Trade Signal Line is pointing at 50 with a horizontal channel, indicating sideways movement.

 

[radex78]

AUDUSD plummets ahead of Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

The Australian dollar faced increasing selling pressure on Monday, November 17, 2025, breaking through the key support level of 0.6500 ahead of today's RBA minutes. The AUDUSD candlestick drew a long-bodied bearish candlestick with almost no shadows, reflecting a sharp decline. At the time of writing, the AUDUSD pair had formed a high of 0.65375, a low of 0.64820, and a close of 0.64861. This decline has crossed the middle band and is seeking a lower band target of around 0.64554.

The RBA is currently maintaining its cash rate at 3.6% and stating that the current policy is somewhat restrictive to dampen lingering inflation. Due to relatively high Australian inflation and a rebounding housing market, the RBA appears cautious about cutting more quickly. The market had initially anticipated a rate cut from the RBA, but these expectations have been tempered by relatively strong Australian employment data.

On the other hand, the US dollar strengthened due to expectations that the Fed will cut interest rates later than expected. According to the CME Group's Fedwatch tool, the likelihood of a Fed rate cut at its December 10, 2025, meeting is only 42.6%. Meanwhile, 55.6% believe the Fed will leave interest rates unchanged (3.75%-4.00%). The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the USD's performance against six major currencies, showed improved performance, rising from a low of 99.245 to a high of 99.598 on Monday.

As the interest rate differential between the US and Australia narrows, this could also put pressure on the Australian dollar against the USD. The AUD is often classified as a commodity currency, meaning it is influenced by Australian exports, particularly to China, such as iron ore and copper. China's economic conditions and the commodity dilemma could put pressure on the AUD. Furthermore, global risk sentiment is a factor. If the market is optimistic and tends to be risk-on, the AUD could strengthen. Conversely, if market sentiment is fearful and tends to be risk-off, the USD, as a safe-haven currency, will benefit. Currently, the USD is receiving support from the strength of the US economy and reduced expectations of interest rate cuts, which has put some pressure on the AUD.

Overall, based on fundamental analysis, there is a negative bias towards AUDUSD in the short term due to a combination of USD strength, the RBA's lack of aggressive policy cuts, and the ongoing commodity market dilemma. However, this does not mean the AUD will fall freely, as there are also supporting factors such as stable interest rates in Australia and the potential for a commodity rebound if Chinese data improves.

The forecasted price range for the AUDUSD pair today is estimated at around 0.6460 - 0.6580. The support level to watch is around 0.6490 - 0.6465, with a breakout potentially reaching 0.6420. The main resistance level is around 0.6550 - 0.6580, with a further breakout potentially reaching 0.6620.

AUDUSD D1

The AUDUSD pair is currently moving between the middle and lower bands on the daily timeframe. The Bollinger Bands are drawing a slightly ascending channel with narrower band spacing, reflecting weak bullish sentiment and slightly decreased volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) below the upper band is drawing a flat channel; prices below the line indicate a downtrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) near the lower band is drawing a slightly ascending channel, indicating bullish sentiment over the longer term.

The TDI indicator's VB High is 56, and its VB Low is 37. The difference of 19 reflects the volatility value on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line is 47 with a flat channel, indicating a greater bearish bias than bullish bias.

The RSI Price Line is 46 with a downward-curving channel, indicating a downtrend.

The Trade Signal Line is 48 with a horizontal channel, indicating a sideways market.

AUDUSD H4

AUDUSD is moving near the lower band on the H4 timeframe. The Bollinger Bands are drawing a flat channel, with the bands appearing to widen, indicating increased market volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) between the middle and lower bands is drawing a flat channel, with prices below the line indicating a downtrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) near the middle band is drawing a slightly descending channel, indicating bearish sentiment over the longer term.

The VB High TDI indicator is pointing at 68, and the VB Low is pointing at 40. The difference of 28 reflects the volatility value on the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base Line is pointing at 54 within a descending channel, indicating greater bullishness than bearishness, and potential downside.

The RSI Price Line is pointing at 37 with a descending channel crossing the TSL from above, indicating a downtrend.

The Trade Signal Line is pointing at 42 within a descending channel, indicating a downtrend.

 

[radex78]

Oil prices strengthen despite persistent supply surplus concerns

The XTI/USD oil price, an instrument that represents the price of WTI (West Texas Intermediate) oil against the USD, rose on Tuesday, drawing a long-bodied bullish candle with a small shadow at the bottom. Oil prices reached a high of 60.73, a low of 59.26, and closed at 60.61.

WTI traded up nearly 1.5% despite persistent supply surplus concerns. Traders appear to be more focused on the upcoming US sanctions against Russia, which target Rosneft and Lukoil, due November 21st.

Oil prices are influenced by supply and demand. If US crude oil inventory data declines and refinery utilization increases, this can support prices. For example, the EIA's continuous decline in US refinery inventories is a positive factor. Today, the EIA's economic calendar will release crude oil inventories, which are expected to show a decline of 1.9 million.

On the other hand, some analysts are paying attention to the latest projections from the International Energy Agency, which predict that the global oil market is on track for a period of oversupply, with non-OPEC output growth and softer demand potentially weighing on the balance until early 2026.

Besides supply and demand factors, geopolitical factors are also of concern to traders. Supply-side pressure can arise if geopolitical risks arise, such as sanctions against producing countries. For example, comments that sanctions against Russia could disrupt oil exports and increase spot premiums.

Although short-term conditions could support an increase, there are risks from global oversupply and slowing demand, which could depress prices.

Another factor that traders are paying attention to regarding oil prices is the relationship between the US dollar, interest rates, and the global economy. Because oil is traded in US dollars, a strengthening USD could depress prices by making it relatively expensive for holders of other currencies. A slowing global economy could also depress oil prices.

Currently, conditions appear to favor a consolidation phase or a slight upside rather than a major breakout to the upside or downside. This is due to the relationship between short-term supply and inventory, but also the constraints of oversupply and weak demand.

The forecast short-term price range is estimated at 58.50-61.50 per barrel. Key resistance is around 61.50-62.00; a breakout of this level could lead to a rise to 63.50. Key support is around 58.00-58.50; a breakout of this level could lead to further support at 55.00.

XTIUSD D1

The daily timeframe for WTI oil is currently above the middle band. The Bollinger Bands are drawing a flat channel with narrowing band spacing, indicating a sideways market and decreasing volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) is above the middle band, drawing a descending channel. The price remains below this line, allowing the 50-day moving average (MA) to act as dynamic resistance. The 200-day moving average (MA) is slightly above the upper band, drawing a descending channel, indicating bearish sentiment over the longer term.

The TDI indicator's VB High indicator is at 56, and its VB Low indicator is at 31. The difference of 25 reflects the volatility value on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line is at 43 with a flat channel, indicating a greater bearish bias than bullish bias.

The RSI Price Line is at 50, with an ascending channel crossing the MBL and TSL from below, indicating an uptrend.

The Trade Signal Line is at 47 with an ascending channel, indicating an uptrend.

XTIUSD H4

The WTI oil price on the H4 timeframe is near the upper band. The Bollinger Bands draw a slightly ascending channel with relatively wide band spacing, indicating a bullish bias and relatively high volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) near the middle band draws a descending channel; prices above this line indicate a short-term uptrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) is slightly above the 50-day moving average (MA), drawing a descending channel, indicating bearish sentiment over the longer term.

The TDI indicator's VB High indicator is at 66, and its VB Low indicator is at 32. The difference of 34 reflects the volatility value on the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base Line is at 49 with a flat channel, indicating a greater bearish bias than bullish bias.

The RSI Price Line is at 59, with an ascending channel crossing the MBL and TSL from below, indicating an uptrend.

The Trade Signal Line is at 52 with a flat channel, indicating a sideways market.