Daily Analysis Forex Mix

[radex78]

GBP/JPY extends decline amid rumors of hawkish BoJ stance

The cross pair of GBP/JPY drew a bearish candle on October 1, extending the decline from the previous two days. The pair drew three consecutive bearish candles amidst pressure from the BoJ to raise interest rates. GBP/JPY formed a high of 199.213, a low of 197.905, and a close of 198.112 on FXOpen's platform. This decline widened the upper and lower bands, reflecting increased market volatility.

Pressure for a rate hike by the BoJ is increasing. Normally dovish BoJ members are now stating that a rate hike is increasingly necessary. Additionally, at the last meeting, there was an internal debate about a potential hike, although the policy rate currently remains at 0.5%. These rumors appear to have supported the yen's strength, as rising interest rates support the Japanese Yen.

Japanese economic data, in the Tankan survey, showed optimism among manufacturers rose to +14, the highest level since 2024. This positive sentiment supports expectations of a Japanese interest rate hike, potentially strengthening the yen.

In the UK, there is pressure on the UK economy from fiscal concerns and moderate growth prospects, as the Bank of England (BoE) has signaled caution regarding stimulus or interest rate cuts. Weak UK economic data or market doubts about the growth outlook could put pressure on the GBP. Alternatively, if the interest differential between the UK and Japan narrows or reverses, the yen may become more attractive to investors. This capital inflow could shift to higher-yielding assets in Japan, putting pressure on GBP/JPY.

On the other hand, the Japanese yen is still considered a safe-haven currency during global market turmoil. A US government shutdown could trigger investors to seek other perceived safe havens, such as the JPY and CHF.

Overall, the divergence bias between Japanese and UK fundamentals tends to favor potential GBPJPY weakness, or at least stronger downside pressure than upside. Increasingly hawkish pressure from the Bank of Japan and relatively strong Japanese data are risk factors for GBPJPY. On the other hand, the UK hasn't shown strong fundamentals to drive significant GBP appreciation.

The medium-term projection predicts a range for October's movement between a high of 202,000 and a low of 194,000. If GBPJPY can break through the resistance at 201,200 with strong volume, there is room for an increase to around 202,000. A breakout of the support at 197.9 could open the door to a move to 195,000.

Today's fundamental news focus is on US jobless claims. While not directly related, the strength or weakness can impact other currencies.

GBPJPY D1

GBPJPY movement on the daily timeframe is near the lower band. The price slightly broke the lower band, causing the upper and lower bands to move away from each other, indicating increased market volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) above the lower band draws a flat channel, indicating a sideways trend. Prices below the line signal bearish sentiment. The 200-day moving average (MA) is well below the lower band, drawing a flat channel, indicating a sideways trend over a longer timeframe. The RSI, with a descending channel, points to the 37 level, indicating potential for a decline.

The VB High TDI indicator is at 61, and the VB Low is at 44. The difference of 17 reflects the volatility value on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line is at 53 with a descending channel, indicating a greater bullish bias than bearish bias, with potential for a decline.

The RSI Price Line is at 39 with a descending channel crossing the TSL from above, indicating a downtrend.

The Trade Signal Line is at 48 with a descending channel crossing the MBL from above, indicating a downtrend.

GBPJPY H4

GBPJPY price movement on the H4 timeframe is currently near the lower band. The Bollinger Bands draw a descending channel, with very wide band spacing, reflecting bearish sentiment and high market volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) above the middle band draws a descending channel, indicating strong bearish sentiment, with prices well below the line. The 200-day moving average (MA) below the 50-day moving average (MA) draws a flat channel, indicating sideways movement over the longer term.

The TDI indicator's VB High indicator is at 62, and its VB Low indicator is at 28. The difference of 34 reflects the volatility value on the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base Line is at 45 within a descending channel, indicating a downtrend.

The Trade Signal Line is at 32 within a descending channel, indicating a downtrend.

 

[radex78]

Gap Up at the Open of the GBP/JPY Pair

At the market open today, Monday, October 6th, the GBP/JPY pair experienced a gap up, with the opening price significantly higher than Friday's close. The price opened at 200,584, down from Friday's closing price of 198,743. The gap even crossed the middle band and approached the upper band. On Friday, October 3rd, 2025, GBP/JPY drew a long-bodied bullish candle, ending the previous four days of consecutive declines. The price formed a high of 198,869, a low of 197,743, and a close of 198,714, according to FXOpen's platform.

The volatility of the GBP/JPY pair, also nicknamed "The Beast," is driven by the divergence in monetary policy between the Bank of England (BoE) and the Bank of Japan (BoJ), as well as global risk sentiment. Sterling is currently under pressure due to concerns about the budget deficit (public borrowing) and the potential for future BoE interest rate cuts. If the BoE becomes dovish or indicates an interest rate cut, the GBP tends to weaken against other currencies, including the JPY. UK PMI data slowed, labor surveys weakened, and fiscal policy concerns, particularly regarding taxes and spending, gained market attention. Negative sentiment toward the pound could strengthen downside momentum in the GBP/JPY pair if uncertainty arises.

The Bank of England (BoE) has been battling inflation with a 2% target for the 2026-2027 period, allowing it to gradually lower interest rates from their high levels.

Today's UK economic data calendar includes the release of the S&P Global Construction PMI for September. A stronger-than-expected result could provide temporary support for the GBP, but a weaker result would strengthen the case for a BoE rate cut.

The Japanese yen remains a safe-haven currency, and the BoJ's monetary policy remains very dovish with low interest rates. The interest rate gap between GBP and JPY is often a component of carry trades; if GBP weakens or Japan tightens, the pair could come under pressure.

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is expected to be in a very gradual policy tightening phase. After exiting its negative interest rate policy in 2024, market expectations are high for further interest rate hikes in the fourth quarter of 2026, particularly at the BoJ's meeting in late October 2025. Expectations of a BoJ rate hike are strongly supportive of the Japanese yen.

The Japanese yen is a safe-haven currency, while the GBP is more sensitive to global risks. If global stock markets rise, investors tend to sell Japanese yen and buy GBP, which can push GBP/JPY up. If tensions or pessimistic sentiment arise, investors tend to seek safe-haven assets, which can strengthen the Japanese yen and push GBP/JPY down.

GBPJPY price has recently jumped and is likely to trade around the 200.00 level with key resistance at 201.00 - 201.50, with an intraday range of 199.50- 201.20, with key support at 198.00 and key support at 199.00-199.50.

GBPJPY D1

On the daily timeframe, the GBP/JPY pair is near the upper band line. The Bollinger Bands draw a flat channel with relatively wide band spacing, reflecting a sideways trend with moderate volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) is positioned below the middle band, creating a flat channel, and prices above the line indicate bullish sentiment. The 200-day moving average (MA) is well below the lower band, drawing a flat channel, indicating a sideways market over the longer term.

The VB High TDI indicator is at 61, and the VB Low is at 44. The difference of 15 reflects the volatility value on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line is at 52 with a descending channel, indicating a greater bullish bias than a bearish one, suggesting a potential downside.

The RSI Price Line is at 51, with an ascending channel crossing the TSL from below, indicating an uptrend.

The Trade Signal Line is at 47, with a channel curving upwards, indicating an uptrend.

GBPJPY H4

On the H4 timeframe, GBPJPY is moving well above the upper band. A significant price spike was not recorded on the platform. The Bollinger Bands appear to be expanding, with the upper and lower bands moving away from each other, indicating increased market volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) is near the upper band, crossing the 200-day moving average (MA) from above, reflecting a death cross signal. The descending channel indicates a decline, but the price is now above the line, reflecting bullish dominance. The 200-day moving average (MA) above the 50-day moving average (MA) draws a flat channel, indicating a sideways market.

The TDI indicator's VB High indicator is at 59, and its VB Low indicator is at 24. The 35-point difference indicates volatility on the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base Line is at 42 with a flat channel, indicating a greater bearish bias than bullish bias.

The RSI Price Line is at 62 with an ascending channel, crossing the TSL and MBL from below, indicating an uptrend.

The Trade Signal Line is at 49 with an ascending channel, crossing the MBL from below, indicating an uptrend.

 

[radex78]

Japanese Yen Weakens to Highest Level, EUR/JPY Soars Through Key Level

The EUR/JPY pair surged on October 7, 2025, hitting a new all-time high of 177.144. The price drew a bullish candlestick with a nearly shadowless body, extending the previous rally. EUR/JPY formed a high of 177.144, a low of 175.781, and a close of 177.063 on FXOpen's platform.

The Japanese Yen's pressure was triggered by various factors, including the divergence in interest rate policies between the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and the ECB (ECB), as well as global risk sentiment. Recently, BoJ Governor Ueda voiced caution regarding interest rate hikes due to global uncertainty. The market appears to be assessing that the BoJ remains dovish or slow in raising interest rates. The victory of pro-stimulus politician Sanae Takaichi in Japan fueled expectations that Japan would pursue an expansionary fiscal policy and maintain low interest rates, which tends to weaken the Japanese Yen.

The interest rate divergence and policy outlook remain the strongest drivers of this pair. The ECB is expected to be in a phase of gradually easing interest rates towards a neutral level of around 2%, driven by slowing eurozone growth and headline inflation approaching its 2% target. This could make the euro less attractive, which could weaken the euro.

On the other hand, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) has exited its negative interest rate policy but is maintaining its interest rate around 0.5%, cautiously. Although there are signs of further tightening or the next rate hike is expected in late 2025 or early 2026, its interest rate remains ultra-low, which could weaken the Japanese Yen.

As long as the ECB's interest rate divergence is higher than the BoJ's, even though the ECB might cut rates and the BoJ could potentially raise them, the large yield differential creates a carry trade, meaning more JPY selling and EUR buying, structurally supporting the EURJPY rally.

Today, several important news items are likely to trigger volatility that investors are focusing on, such as comments by BoJ Governor Ueda, where the market will be looking for hawkish or dovish clues. A hawkish statement or policy tightening could trigger JPY buying, which could lower the EURJPY. Conversely, a dovish statement or policy loosening could encourage the EURJPY to extend its gains.

Meanwhile, ECB officials' speeches could also have a significant impact. Statements regarding the inflation outlook, economic growth, and potential ECB monetary policy adjustments could weigh on the euro. Statements indicating a faster rate cut could put pressure on the euro.

The market is currently dominated by risk-off sentiment, particularly due to the focus on developments surrounding the US government shutdown. Risk-off sentiment traditionally supports safe-haven currencies like the Japanese yen and the US dollar, which could limit or even reverse EURJPY gains. Fundamentally, the divergence between the ECB's easing interest rates and the Bank of Japan's ultra-low interest rates is supportive of EURJPY gains in the long term. The risk of a correction due to global risk-off sentiment stemming from the US government shutdown and the potential for unexpected hawkish signals from Bank of Japan Governor Ueda could trigger a surge in the yen, leading to a sharp correction in EURJPY.

Today's EURJPY price movement is estimated to be in the range of 176.00-178.00, with key resistance at 177.50. The next resistance is estimated to be in the range of 178.00-178.20 if the price breaks through this key level. Key support is estimated at around 176.00. Failing to hold the key level, the next support target is around 175.80.

EURJPY D1

The EURJPY pair is currently moving near the upper band line on the daily timeframe. The Bollinger Bands appear to be expanding, with the upper and lower bands diverging, indicating increased market volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) below the middle band draws a flat channel, indicating a sideways movement, but the price is moving further away from the line, indicating a strong uptrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) is well below the lower band, draws an upward channel, indicating bullish sentiment over the longer term.

The VB High TDI indicator is pointing at 70, and the VB Low is pointing at 45. The difference of 25 reflects the volatility value on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line is pointing at 58 with a flat channel, indicating a greater bullish weighting than bearishness.

The RSI Price Line is pointing at 70, with an upward channel crossing the TSL and MBL from the downside, indicating an uptrend entering overbought levels.

The Trade Signal Line is pointing at 55, with a channel curving upward, indicating an uptrend signal.

EURJPY H4

The Japanese Yen is currently moving near the upper band on the H4 timeframe. Here, the Bollinger Bands are very wide, with the upper and lower bands moving farther apart, reflecting an increasing price deviation from their averages.

The 50-day moving average (MA) below the middle band draws a curved channel to the upside, indicating bullish sentiment; a price that moves further away from the line indicates a strong uptrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) is positioned below the 50-day moving average (MA), creating an ascending channel, which indicates bullish sentiment over the longer term.

The TDI indicator's VB High is 76, and its VB Low is 20. The difference of 46 reflects the volatility value on the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base Line is 48 with an ascending channel, indicating greater bearishness than bullishness, suggesting potential upside.

The RSI Price Line is 72 with an ascending channel, indicating an uptrend entering overbought levels.

The Trade Signal Line is 68 with a fading ascending channel, indicating a weak uptrend.

 

[radex78]

WTI crude oil prices hovered near the middle band.

The price of WTI crude oil on Wednesday, October 8th, drew a doji candle, indicating market confusion. The price formed a high of 62.45, a low of 61.69, and a close of 61.97, opening at 61.78 on FXOpen's platform.

The direction of WTI crude oil prices is influenced by several factors, including US inventory data, OPEC+ production policy, the outlook for global demand versus supply, and the US dollar.

Recent data from the IEA showed inventories at the Cushing, Oklahoma, hub fell sharply, the largest decline since June. National US crude inventories are also near seasonal low levels, and refined product holdings have declined, indicating strong demand. The decrease in inventories, particularly at Cushing, the WTI hub, indicates tighter supply in the US and supports prices.

On the other hand, OPEC+ decided to increase production at a smaller rate than expected, such as an increase of 137,000 barrels per day or a smaller increase in November. The decision to moderate production increases helped keep supply from flooding the market, thereby supporting prices. However, the overall production increase by OPEC+ could limit broader price increases.

Oil demand appears to be strengthening based on US refined product data. However, the IEA projects the global oil market will experience a record surplus next year of around 3.33 million barrels per day, as OPEC continues to increase production and US production is projected to reach a record high. In the short term, oil is supported by US demand, but the prospect of a future global supply surplus could limit upward price momentum.

Another factor of concern is the value of the US dollar. Generally, a weaker US dollar makes oil traded in USD more affordable, and vice versa. Sentiment regarding the possibility of a future Fed interest rate cut can support oil prices. USD performance is usually measured by the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the USD against six major currencies. Today, it's important to pay attention to the USD-related news schedule, including the FOMC meeting minutes and unemployment claims, which may impact the USD's performance in the short term. However, the US shutdown may cause a delay in the data release.

The forecast intraday price range is estimated to be in the range of $61.50-$64.60 per barrel, with key resistance at 63.50-64.60, a pivot point at 62.50, and key support at 61.50-62.00. A decrease in these levels could trigger a rally to 60.00.

XTIUSD D1

WTI oil prices are currently moving below the middle band on the daily timeframe. The Bollinger Bands tend to draw a flat channel with slightly widened band spacing, reflecting a sideways market with moderate volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) above the middle band draws a slightly descending channel, indicating bearish sentiment. The 200-day moving average (MA) above the upper band draws a flat channel, indicating a sideways market over a longer period.

The TDI indicator's VB High indicator is at 58, and its VB Low indicator is at 38. The difference of 20 reflects the volatility value on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line is at 47 with a flat channel, indicating a greater bearish bias than bullish bias.

The RSI Price Line is at 44, with an ascending channel crossing the TSL from below, indicating an uptrend.

The Trade Signal Line is at 41 with a descending horizontal channel, indicating a fading downtrend.

XTIUSD H4

The WTI oil price on the H4 timeframe is currently moving near the upper band line. The Bollinger Bands are drawing an upward channel with relatively wide band spacing, indicating bullish sentiment and moderate market volatility.

The TDI indicator's VB High indicator is pointing at 60, and its VB Low indicator is pointing at 21. The difference of 39 reflects the volatility value on the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base Line is pointing at 40 within an upward channel, indicating greater bearishness than bullishness, suggesting potential upside.

The RSI Price Line is pointing at 56 within a horizontal upward channel, indicating a fading uptrend.

The Trade Signal Line is pointing at 56 within an upward channel, indicating a market uptrend.

 

[radex78]

WTI oil plummets to a low of 57.95 due to Trump's tariff threats on China

On Friday, October 10, 2025, the XTI/USD oil price plummeted to a low of 57.95 after breaking the key 60.00 level. The price drew a long-bodied bearish candle with almost no shadow, forming a high of 61.28, a low of 57.95, and a close of 57.99 on FXOpen's platform.

Factors likely contributing to this sharp decline include the threat of US tariffs on China. US President Donald Trump's threat to impose massive tariffs on Chinese products has raised concerns that U.S.-China trade relations could worsen and weaken global oil demand. As China is one of the largest oil consumers, any prospect of economic weakness there could depress global oil demand.

Geopolitical conflicts are also a concern. The previous conflict in the Middle East between Hamas and Israel had previously added a risk premium to oil prices, with the market adding a risk premium due to concerns about supply disruptions. However, when a ceasefire or a reduction in tensions occurs, some of the risk premium disappears, causing oil prices to correct downwards.

From an oil supply perspective, there are concerns about excess supply. Fears that OPEC+ and non-OPEC producers' continued increases in oil production could depress oil prices. If the market believes oversupply is imminent, while demand weakens, selling pressure will emerge.

As the threat of tariffs and economic uncertainty increases, investors are opting for safe-haven assets or selling riskier assets, including commodities like oil. Worsening market sentiment is accelerating the sell-off.

However, despite concerns about oversupply, OPEC+ may attempt to manage supply. Saudi Arabia and Russia's extension of their cuts until the end of the year could provide price support. The decline in US crude oil inventories, as reported in weekly data, could be a positive catalyst for oil prices. The threat of new sanctions against Russia if the conflict in Ukraine fails to end, which could disrupt global oil flows, could also be a catalyst for price increases.

The forecast short-term price movement range for today is estimated at 57.95-61.67, with key resistance at 61.50-62.00. Key support levels are estimated to be in the range of 59.39-60.22, with the psychological level at 59.00.

Today's economic calendar shows several banks in Japan, Canada, and the United States closed for a holiday. These bank closures may impact spot market trading volumes.

XTIUSD D1

WTI crude oil prices are below the lower band on the daily timeframe, awaiting the market open. The Bollinger Bands draw a flat channel with the bands spaced apart, reflecting increased market volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) above the middle band draws a descending channel, indicating bearish sentiment. The 200-day moving average (MA) above the upper band draws a flat channel, indicating a sideways market with prices well below the bands for longer periods.

The TDI indicator's VB High is 56, and its VB Low is 36. The difference of 20 reflects the volatility value on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line is 46 with a flat channel, indicating a greater bearish weight than bullish weight.

The RSI Price Line is 35 with a descending channel crossing the TSL from above, indicating a downtrend.

The Trade Signal Line is 39 with a descending channel, indicating a downtrend.

XTIUSD H4

The XTIUSD crude oil price on the H4 timeframe is outside the lower band. Here, the Bollinger Bands appear to be expanding, with the upper and lower bands moving away from each other, reflecting increased market volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) near the middle band draws a descending channel, indicating strong bearish sentiment. The 200-day moving average (MA) near the upper band draws a flat channel, indicating a longer-term sideways trend with the potential for stronger bearish sentiment.

The TDI indicator's VB High indicator is at 62, and its VB Low indicator is at 28. The difference of 34 reflects the volatility value on the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base Line is at 45 with a flat channel, indicating a greater bearish weighting than bullishness.

The RSI Price Line is at 19, with a descending channel crossing the MBL from above, indicating a downtrend in the oversold market.

The Trade Signal Line is at 32, with a descending channel crossing the MBL from above, indicating a downtrend.

 

[radex78]

Gold prices soar, hitting a new all-time high again.

Gold prices surged above $4,100 amid global trade and political turmoil. On Monday, October 13, 2025, gold prices soared, drawing a long-bodied bullish candle with almost no shadows. The price formed a high of 4,116, a low of 3,998, and a close of 4,109 on FXOpen's platform.

President Trump's rhetoric appears to be causing market anxiety and increasing demand for safe-haven assets. Last week, US President Trump threatened to impose 100% tariffs on Chinese goods in retaliation for China's rare earth metal export controls. However, Trump backed off, posting on Truth Social, "Don't worry about China, everything will be fine!"

Furthermore, concerns about escalating geopolitical conflicts, such as those between Russia and Ukraine, continue to increase gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset. This heightened global uncertainty is strongly supporting the rise in gold prices.

Market expectations of the Fed's strong monetary easing, with the Fed continuing its 25 basis point interest rate cuts at its October and December meetings, have become a major catalyst for gold. Interest rate cuts tend to weaken the US dollar, which is historically correlated with gold. A weaker US dollar makes gold cheaper for holders of other currencies.

Previously, gold had experienced strong price gains, having hit a new record high and broken through the crucial $4,000 level. Gold reached $4,059 on October 8, 2025. This strong upward momentum indicates massive buying interest from institutional investors and central banks.

The US government shutdown has entered its thirteenth day. A Bloomberg article revealed that Trump's permanent impeachment reinforces Democratic skepticism toward the Republicans and could prolong the shutdown.

Analysts at Bank of America and Société Générale predict gold will reach $5,000 by 2026. Standard Chartered has raised its forecast to an average of $4,488 next year. US bank Goldman Sachs updated its gold forecast for 2026 from $4,300 to $4,900.

While support for gold is strong, there are potential risks that could restrain price gains. After hitting a new record high, gold is vulnerable to profit-taking, which could lead to a short-term correction. Furthermore, there are important events scheduled for today. A speech by Fed Chairman Powell, if he delivers a hawkish tone or dismisses expectations of an interest rate cut, could strengthen the USD and lower gold prices.

Today's forecast resistance is in the $4,080-$4,120 range. Some analysts are citing $4,084-$4,122 as a resistance target if the bullish trend continues, with $4,160 as an extension target if the uptrend continues. Lower support is estimated at the key $3926 level. If the price falls below this level, corrective pressure will open. Additional support is located around $3892 and $3864 as intermediate support, with the potential for a rebound if the price falls below that level.

XTIUSD D1

The gold price on the daily timeframe is currently outside the upper band. The Bollinger Bands draw an ascending channel with wide band spacing, indicating bullish sentiment and high market volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) near the lower band draws an ascending channel, indicating strong bullish sentiment. The 200-day moving average (MA) is well below the 50-day moving average (MA), drawing an ascending channel, indicating bullish sentiment over the longer term.

The TDI indicator's VB High indicator is at 86, and its VB Low indicator is at 66. The difference of 20 reflects the volatility value on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line is at 76 with an ascending channel, indicating a greater bullish weighting than bearishness.

The RSI Price Line is at 79 with a downward-curving channel crossing the TSL and MBL from above, indicating a downtrend.

The Trade Signal Line is at 81 with a flat channel, indicating a sideways market.

XAUUSD H4

The gold price on the H4 timeframe is near the upper band line. Here, the Bollinger bands appear to be expanding, with the upper and lower bands moving away from each other, indicating increasing market volatility.

The VB High TDI indicator is showing 86, and the VB Low is showing 49. The difference of 37 reflects the volatility value on the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base Line is showing 68 with a flat channel, indicating a greater bullish bias than bearish bias.

The RSI Price Line is showing 72 with an upward channel crossing the MBL from below, indicating an uptrend.

The Trade Signal Line is showing 67 with an upward channel, indicating a market uptrend.

 

[radex78]

XAG/USD continues to show strong bullish momentum during this period.

Silver prices rose again on Wednesday, October 15, 2025, drawing a long-bodied bullish candle after a retracement on Tuesday. Silver formed a high of 53,148, a low of 51,358, and a close of 52,944 on FXOpen's platform.

In general, the silver price trend shows strong and sustained bullish momentum during this period, supported by key fundamental factors.

Silver is also considered a safe-haven asset amid economic and geopolitical uncertainty. Global political or geopolitical uncertainty, such as the US government shutdown, uncertainty in France and Japan, and the US-China trade war, continues to drive investors to safe-haven assets, including gold and silver. Its correlation with gold also provides fundamental support for silver prices. Recently, gold prices broke through the $4,200 per troy oz level, while silver prices also rose to 53,460, their highest level since 2011.

The prospect of a Fed rate cut remains high. Several Fed officials are calling for a rate cut, with a possible 25 basis point cut at the October meeting, which tends to weaken the US dollar and support safe-haven assets like gold and silver.

The impact of a weaker US dollar makes dollar-denominated commodities like silver more attractive and cheaper for holders of other currencies, pushing up the XAGUSD price. Silver is a non-yielding asset, so a low-interest-rate environment reduces the opportunity cost of holding it.

In the industrial sector, silver serves a dual function as both an industrial metal and a monetary system. Demand for silver has surged sharply from green energy sectors like solar panels, electric vehicles, and electronics. In fact, the Silver Institute predicts a market deficit for the fifth consecutive year by 2025. This combination of tight supply and high demand fundamentally supports rising silver prices.

Overall, fundamentals remain very bullish, driven by its safe-haven status, expectations of US monetary easing, and a supply deficit driven by industrial demand. However, the risk of volatility remains, and significant profit-taking could lead to a sharp short-term correction.

The daily silver price forecast for today is a bullish range of $52,000-$54,300, with a potential breakout of $55,000. The nearest key resistance is estimated at $53,770, with intermediate resistance at $54,300, the psychological target at $55,000, with projected support at $52,000-$52,500, and the nearest key support at $50,010. A breakout of key support would lead to intermediate support at $48,400-$47,900.

XAGUSD D1

Silver price movement on the daily timeframe is currently near the upper band line. The Bollinger Bands here draw an upward channel with wide band spacing, indicating strong bullish sentiment and high volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) is slightly above the lower band, drawing an upward channel, indicating strong sentiment. The 200-day moving average (MA) is slightly further from the lower band, drawing an upward channel, indicating bullish sentiment over the longer term.

The VB High TDI indicator is at 84, and the VB Low is at 65. The difference of 19 reflects the volatility value on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line is at 74 with an upward channel, indicating a greater bullish weighting than bearishness.

The RSI Price Line is at 78, with a downward-sloping channel crossing the TSL from the upside, indicating a downtrend.

The Trade Signal Line is at 79 with a horizontal channel, indicating a sideways market.

XAGUSD H4

Silver price movement on the daily timeframe is currently near the upper band line. The Bollinger Bands here draw an upward channel with wide band spacing, indicating strong bullish sentiment and high volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) is slightly above the lower band, drawing an upward channel, indicating strong sentiment. The 200-day moving average (MA) is slightly further from the lower band, drawing an upward channel, indicating bullish sentiment over the longer term.

The VB High TDI indicator is at 84, and the VB Low is at 65. The difference of 19 reflects the volatility value on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line is at 74 with an upward channel, indicating a greater bullish weighting than bearishness.

The RSI Price Line is at 78, with a downward-sloping channel crossing the TSL from above, indicating a downtrend.

The Trade Signal Line is at 79 with a horizontal channel, indicating a sideways market.

 

[radex78]

Will Silver prices extend their gains?

Silver's price movement on Friday, October 17, 2025, showed a bearish candle with a wick at the bottom of the candle. This reflects a strong price decline, followed by significant buyer action. The price formed a high of 54,461, a low of 50,611, and a close of 51,669 on FXOpen's platform.

Silver is a commodity with a dual function, acting not only as a safe-haven asset but also as an industrial commodity. This factor takes into account the safe-haven factor and its relationship to the USD. Secondly, industrial factors and market demand/supply are key factors.

Silver is traded in USD, so the strength of the US dollar and the Fed's interest rate are key factors. When the USD weakens or interest rates fall, silver will receive a boost. Currently, the market is focusing on Fed policy and whether there will be an interest rate cut, which could support silver. Data shows that the market is already pricing in a potential Fed rate cut at the end of October 2025, which is bullish for silver.

However, if there's a hawkish surprise or strong economic data, such as inflation or employment, that supports the US dollar, silver could face selling pressure. However, the current US shutdown could delay US news releases.

Current global risk sentiment, political uncertainty such as US-China trade tensions, political uncertainty in Europe and Japan, the risk of recession, or geopolitical concerns tend to increase demand for safe-haven assets like silver and support price increases.

Silver is currently experiencing a serious supply shortage. Production is declining because much silver is merely a byproduct of other metal mining, while demand is increasing significantly in the industrial sector. Reports indicate that the physical London market is experiencing an extreme shortage. The Silver Institute estimates the silver market deficit will continue for the fifth consecutive year through 2025. This market scarcity is a very strong medium-term fundamental factor supporting price increases.

Despite the current bullish outlook, analysts warn that silver is riskier than gold because it lacks central bank support and is more sensitive to industrial cycles. Another risk is that silver prices have already rallied strongly, with potential profit-taking or a rapid correction if macroeconomic conditions disappoint.

The silver price forecast for today is support around 48.60-50.00, with a correction scenario if pressure from macroeconomic risks arises. Resistance is around 54.00-56.00 if bullish momentum continues and macro factors are supportive. A realistic price range would be 49.50-55.00.

XAGUSD D1

The silver price on the daily timeframe is currently between the middle and upper band lines. The Bollinger Bands draw an upward channel with wide spacing, reflecting bullish sentiment and strong market volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) above the lower band draws an upward channel; prices well above the line indicate strong bullish sentiment. The 200-day moving average (MA) below the lower band draws an upward channel, reflecting bullish sentiment over the longer term.

The VB High TDI indicator is at 84, and the VB Low is at 65. The difference of 19 reflects the volatility value on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line is at 75 with an upward channel, indicating a greater bullish weighting than bearishness.

The RSI Price Line is at 74 with a downward-sloping channel crossing the TSL from above, indicating a downtrend. The price is at overbought levels.

The Trade Signal Line is at 78 with a flat channel, indicating a sideways market.

XAGUSD H4

Silver prices moved near the lower band at the end of the week. The Bollinger Bands drew an ascending channel with relatively wide band spacing, indicating bullish sentiment with moderately high volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) was near the lower band, with the price slightly above it, indicating fading bullish sentiment. The 200-day moving average (MA) was well below the lower band, drawing an ascending channel, indicating bullish sentiment over the longer term.

The VB High TDI indicator showed 77, and the VB Low showed 51. The difference of 26 reflects the volatility value on the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base Line showed 64 with a slightly descending channel, indicating a greater bullish weighting than a bearish one, indicating potential downside.

The RSI Price Line showed 43 with a descending channel crossing the MBL and TSL from above, indicating a market downtrend.

The Trade Signal Line showed 57 with a descending channel crossing the MBL from above, indicating a market downtrend.

 

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The Canadian dollar has the potential to weaken amid falling oil prices.

On Monday, October 20, 2025, the USDCAD pair drew a bullish candle with shadows at the top and bottom of the candle. The price formed a high of 1.40510, a low of 1.40052, and a close of 1.40354 on FXOpen's platform. This candlestick continues to show a higher low.

In addition to the dominant factors driven by the divergence between the Fed and the BoC's monetary policies and oil commodity prices, global risk sentiment can also influence the Canadian dollar exchange rate.

Global market developments, such as reports on relations with China, could support USD strength. A strengthening US dollar will generally push the USDCAD pair up.

The Bank of Canada reported third-quarter business and consumer surveys showing limited optimism: companies' outlooks remain moderate, with many reluctant to increase production capacity or hire due to the pressure of US tariffs. The market now expects the BoC to cut interest rates by around 25 basis points at its October 29 meeting.

Oil prices are currently trending downward due to various factors, including oversupply and US-China trade tensions, which could reduce Chinese demand for oil. Falling oil prices have the potential to reduce Canada's oil export revenues.

In the US, despite expectations of an imminent Fed interest rate cut, limited economic data due to the US government shutdown adds to the uncertainty. The US dollar is relatively supported by its safe-haven status and global liquidity, as well as by the continued USD-Canadian interest rate differential.

Due to Canada's weakening domestic economic pressures, this tends to weaken the CAD, meaning USD/CAD tends to rise as the USD strengthens relative to the CAD. On the other hand, although the USD could be under pressure if the Fed becomes more dovish, current conditions still slightly support the USD due to the interest rate differential and low expectations of a strong hike. In the short term, the fundamental bias of the USD/CAD pair is slightly bullish for the USD.

The forecasted reasonable price range for today is between 1.4000 and 1.4085. An upside breakout scenario, if the USD is strong, will see the next resistance range of 1.4160 and 1.4170. A downside breakdown scenario, if the CAD rebounds strongly and oil strengthens, could see a drop to 1.3920 and 13990. Canada will release inflation data on today's economic calendar.

USDCAD D1

The Canadian dollar is currently trading between the middle and upper band lines on the daily timeframe. The Bollinger Bands are drawing an ascending channel, with the upper and lower bands converging, reflecting bullish sentiment with declining volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) near the lower band is drawing an ascending channel; prices are well above the line, reflecting strong bullish sentiment. The 200-day moving average (MA) near the middle band is drawing a descending channel, indicating bearish sentiment over the longer term.

The VB High TDI indicator is at 72, and the VB Low is at 47. The difference of 25 reflects the volatility value on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line is at 59 with an ascending channel, indicating a greater bullish weighting than bearish.

The RSI Price Line is at 64, with a descending channel that crosses the TSL from above, indicating a sideways trend.

The Trade Signal Line is at 67, with a channel sloping downward, indicating a downtrend.

USDCAD H4

The USDCAD pair is near the middle band line on the H4 timeframe. A Bollinger Band squeeze has formed here, indicating narrow price movement, reflecting low market volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) is above the lower band, drawing an upward channel; prices above the line indicate weak bullish sentiment. The 200-day moving average (MA) is well below the lower band, drawing an upward channel, indicating bullish sentiment over the longer term.

The TDI indicator's VB High is 69, and its VB Low is 44. The difference of 25 reflects the volatility value on the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base Line is 57 with a flat channel, indicating a greater bullish weighting than the bearish weighting.

The RSI Price Line is 51 with a slight downward channel, indicating a weak downtrend.

The Trade Signal Line is 45 with a slight upward channel, indicating a weak uptrend.

 

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Gold prices plummet from their all-time highs

Gold prices suddenly plummeted on Tuesday, October 21, 2025. Gold prices drew a long-bodied bearish candle with a lower low and a small shadow at the bottom of the candle. The price then formed a high of 4375, a low of 4082, and a close of 4124 on FXOpen's platform.

After the gold price experienced a significant surge and reached above $4300 per troy oz, gold began to experience pullback pressure due to significant profit-taking. The market is currently awaiting subtle clues from fundamental US economic data, the Fed's decision, and US-China trade before deciding on its next direction.

The main fundamental situation is safe-haven demand and central banks. Gold is often considered a safe-haven asset and receives strong support from global uncertainty and geopolitical conflicts, trade tensions, and changes in government reserve strategies. Central banks and large institutions are also buying gold for diversification, which strengthens medium- to long-term demand.

Because gold offers no yield, when the Fed is expected to lower interest rates, the opportunity cost of holding gold decreases, supporting a rise in its price. Conversely, a strengthening US dollar or expectations of a no-lower-interest-rate will be a counter-factor for gold.

Considering gold's fundamentals, if strong US economic news or data supports the dollar, such as higher-than-expected inflation, gold could be under pressure due to expectations of high interest rates, which could push XAUUSD lower. Therefore, it's important to closely monitor changes such as US economic data releases, official statements or announcements from the Fed regarding interest rates, and also keep an eye on any sudden geopolitical or trade developments.

If risk-on sentiment dominates and the USD strengthens, supported by strong US economic data and the Fed's hawkish outlook, the short-term outlook for gold is likely bearish. However, if there is new geopolitical turmoil or signs of global economic weakness, safe-haven demand could quickly turn bullish.

The forecast for today's gold price range is the main resistance range of 4305 - 4327 with the nearest pivot at 4280 with a mid-price range of around 4250 - 4270. Strong support is around 4000, with the nearest support at around 4080. The price range can fluctuate significantly, given the risk of volatility and depending on the release of surprising US economic data or sudden geopolitical developments.

XAUUSD D1

The gold price on the daily timeframe is currently slightly above the middle band. The Bollinger Bands have drawn an ascending channel with wide spacing, indicating bullish sentiment with high volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) near the lower band has drawn an ascending channel, indicating strong bullish sentiment. The 200-day moving average (MA) is well below the lower band has drawn an ascending channel, indicating bullish sentiment over the longer term.

The TDI indicator's VB High indicator is at 87, and its VB Low indicator is at 69. The difference of 18 reflects the volatility value on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line is at 78 with a horizontal channel, indicating a greater bullish bias than bearish bias, potentially leading to a sideways trend.

The RSI Price Line is at 69, with a descending channel crossing the TSL and MBL from above, indicating a downtrend.

The Trade Signal Line is at 79, with a downward-sloping channel, indicating a downtrend.

XAUUSD H4

The gold price movement on the H4 timeframe is currently below the lower band. Here, the Bollinger Bands are drawing a downward-curving channel, with the upper and lower bands diverging, indicating increased market volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) above the lower band represents an upward channel, while the price below reflects a downtrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) is well below the lower band represents an upward channel, indicating longer-term bullish sentiment.

The VB High TDI indicator is at 89, and the VB Low is at 44. The difference of 45 reflects the volatility value on the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base Line is at 67 with a downward channel, indicating greater bullishness than bearishness, suggesting a potential downside.

The RSI Price Line is at 35 with a downward channel crossing the TSL from above, indicating a downtrend.

The Trade Signal Line is at 50 with a downward channel, indicating a downtrend.