Daily Analysis Forex Mix

[radex78]

Silver Rebounds After Four Consecutive Days of Decline

Silver prices yesterday drew a bullish candle with a long body and a relatively long wick at the bottom of the candle. Silver formed a high of 37,937, a low of 36,954, and a close of 37,889. Silver prices rebounded after touching the lower band line.

Fundamental factors that could influence the current silver price include US monetary policy, global market sentiment, and industrial demand.

The Fed's monetary policy report indicated that they are in no rush to cut interest rates. A prolonged high-interest-rate scenario tends to strengthen the USD and is a negative factor for silver. The DXY, which measures the US dollar against six major currencies, is currently at 98.227, down slightly by 0.06% but has successfully crossed the 20-day moving average (EMA) from the downside.

High interest rates make non-yielding silver less attractive, with investors preferring yield-bearing assets such as US Treasuries, which in turn strengthens the USD.

From a geopolitical perspective, geopolitical uncertainty and trade wars, such as the one between China and the US, can increase the potential demand for safe-haven assets like silver, potentially curbing price declines. Although silver is not considered a major safe-haven asset like gold, it still benefits from global uncertainty due to investor demand for non-flat assets.

Significant industrial demand, particularly in technology sectors such as solar panels, electric cars, and electronics, is present. Slowing global economic growth prospects could reduce demand in these industries, which in turn pressures silver prices. Silver prices often move in tandem with gold; rising gold prices can support silver.

From a fundamental perspective, there appears to be a tug-of-war between factors that pressure and support silver prices. Geopolitical concerns and potential safe-haven demand support silver, but the Fed's hawkish stance tends to suppress silver prices. The strengthening of the USD, although slightly weakened, still offers upside potential.

The probability of an interest cut rate, according to the CME Group's Fedwatch tool, currently indicates an 81.0% chance of a Fed rate cut at its September meeting.

XAGUSD D1

The silver price on the daily timeframe is currently moving near the middle band line. Here, the Bollinger Bands are drawing a flat channel with shrinking band spacing, reflecting a sideways market with decreasing volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) is above the lower band, drawing an upward channel, indicating bullish sentiment. The 200-day moving average (MA) is well below the lower band, drawing a slightly upward channel, indicating bullish sentiment over the longer term.

The VB High TDI indicator is at 71, and the VB Low is at 44. The difference of 27 reflects the volatility value on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line is at 58 with a downward channel, indicating a greater bullish weight than bearish, with a potential downtrend.

The RSI Price Line is at 48 with a downward channel, indicating sideways movement.

The Trade Signal Line is at 52 with a downward channel, indicating sideways movement.

XAGUSD H4

The silver price on the H4 timeframe is currently near the middle band line, bouncing after a drop and break of the lower band line. Here, the Bollinger Bands are drawing a flat channel with widening band spacing, reflecting a sideways trend with high volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) is slightly above the middle band is drawing a descending channel, indicating bearish sentiment. The 200-day moving average (MA) near the middle band is drawing an ascending channel, indicating bullish sentiment over the longer term.

The VB High TDI indicator is showing a value of 63, and the VB Low is showing a value of 31. The difference of 32 reflects the volatility value on the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base Line is showing a value of 47 with a flat channel, indicating a greater bearish weight than bullishness.

The RSI Price Line is showing a value of 52, with an ascending channel crossing the TSL and MBL from the lower side, indicating an uptrend.

The Trade Signal Line is showing a value of 39, with a channel curving upward, indicating an uptrend.

 

[radex78]

Bitcoin plummets due to uncertainty surrounding Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium

Bitcoin experienced a significant correction from a high of around $124k, dropping by approximately 7% to its current level of around $113k. This decline was driven by uncertainty surrounding Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium. Uncertainty about the direction of monetary policy, including the possibility of an interest rate cut, was a major factor in Bitcoin's recent decline.

Yesterday, Bitcoin drew a long-bodied bearish candle with almost no shadow. The price formed a high of $115,636, a low of $111,126, and a close of $112,726 on FXOpen's trading platform. This was a fairly deep decline from the middle band to the lower band line.

In terms of institutional investor funds, there was an outflow of nearly $1 billion from Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, but the total funds remaining in crypto funds remained at their highest levels, indicating strong institutional investor confidence. This support is reinforced by the presence of numerous spot Bitcoin ETFs since January 2024, as well as the accumulation of over $100 billion in assets, particularly from major players like BlackRock and Harvard University.

VanEck's prediction even predicts that BTC could reach $180,000 by the end of 2025, driven by growing institutional investment and favorable macroeconomic conditions. Bitwise analysts also project a BTC target range of $180k-$250k thanks to a combination of limited supply and high institutional demand.

Despite a correction leading up to July, Bitcoin quickly recovered and eventually reached an all-time high above $124k in August, demonstrating strong demand and solid buying liquidity.

Regarding crypto regulation, in March 2025, President Trump signed an executive order establishing a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve at the federal level, making BTC a strategic reserve asset, with the government holding an estimated 200,000 BTC. Texas even followed suit by establishing the Texas Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, signaling the growing adoption and legitimacy of BTC.

BTCUSD is expected to see a slight correction today, especially if Powell's speech at Jackson Hole negates expectations of an interest rate cut. Meanwhile, institutional support and strong on-chain trends are expected to provide the basis for a medium-term rebound.

BTCUSD D1

Bitcoin is near the lower band on the daily timeframe. Here, the Bollinger Bands draw a flat channel with relatively narrow band spacing, reflecting a sideways trend with relatively low volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) near the middle band draws a slight upward channel, indicating bullish sentiment, with prices below the line. The 200-day moving average (MA) is far below the lower band, drawing a slight upward channel, indicating weaker bullish sentiment over the longer term.

The TDI indicator's VB High is 63, and its VB Low is 40. The difference of 23 reflects the volatility value on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line is 51 with a downward channel, indicating a greater bullish weight than bearish, with a potential downtrend.

The RSI Price Line is 42, with a downward channel crossing the TSL from above, indicating a downtrend.

The Trade Signal Line is 43, with a downward channel crossing the MBL from above, indicating a downtrend.

BTCUSD H4

Bitcoin rebounded upwards on the H4 timeframe after touching the lower band. Here, the Bollinger Bands chart shows a flat channel with wide band spacing, indicating a sideways trend with relatively high volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) above the middle band shows a descending channel, indicating bearish sentiment. The 200-day moving average (MA) below the upper band shows a flat channel, indicating a sideways market over the longer term.

The VB High TDI indicator shows a value of 60, and VB Low shows a value of 23. The difference of 37 reflects the volatility value on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line shows a value of 41 with an ascending channel, indicating a greater bearish bias than bullish bias, with upside potential.

The RSI Price Line shows a value of 35, with a descending channel crossing the TSL and MBL from above, indicating a downtrend.

The Trade Signal Line shows a value of 45, with a descending channel, indicating a downtrend.

 

[radex78]

WTI oil prices rise for a fourth straight day after a prolonged decline

WTI oil prices rose on Monday, drawing a bullish candlestick, extending the previous rally. The price formed a high of 64.87, a low of 63.35, and a close of 64.55 near the middle band on the daily timeframe refers to FXOpen's trading platform.

The rise in oil prices, following the previous week's prolonged decline, appears to be driven by market expectations of lower interest rates in the United States, which have boosted hopes for higher demand.

When analyzing crude oil prices, important factors depend on the dynamics of global supply and demand. In this regard, major oil-producing countries, OPEC+, the US, and Russia, play a role in maintaining oil supply, while China and the US often serve as benchmarks for global oil demand.

Furthermore, traders also pay attention to the performance of the USD. When the USD strengthens, oil prices tend to fall because oil becomes more expensive for holders of other currencies. Conversely, a weakening USD can push oil prices up.

Today's fundamental factor that traders may be paying attention to is the US oil inventory report. According to the latest data from the American Petroleum Institute (API), US oil inventories fell by 2.4 million barrels in the week ending August 15, 2025. This decrease exceeded analysts' expectations, which had projected a smaller decrease. Energy Information Administration (EIA) data is usually released on Wednesdays. If the EIA confirms a decline in inventories, this could be bullish for oil prices, indicating strong demand and tight supply in the US.

The Russia-Ukraine conflict remains a major topic driving oil price trends. The recent attack on Russian energy infrastructure by Ukraine could increase supply uncertainty and could push prices up.

Investors will also be paying attention to OPEC+'s policy to increase or cut production, which could significantly impact oil price fluctuations. However, concerns about a global recession and economic slowdown could hamper demand and depress oil prices. Conversely, strong economic data from major consumers like China and the US could support oil prices.

Bullish support today includes US inventory data showing a larger-than-expected decline, indicating that US demand remains strong. An escalation of the Russia-Ukraine war could create a risk premium on oil prices. Market expectations of potential Fed policy easing could pressure the US dollar, which fundamentally supports oil prices.

Conversely, bearish support is seen in US economic data showing strong resilience, triggering a strengthening USD, which could pressure oil prices. Alternatively, broader macroeconomic concerns about global growth could limit price gains.

XTIUSD D1

Oil prices on the daily timeframe are currently near the middle band. Here, the Bollinger Bands are drawing a slightly descending channel with wide spacing, where the upper and lower bands are beginning to approach each other, indicating bearish sentiment and decreasing volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) above the middle band tends to draw a flat channel, indicating sideways market sentiment. The 200-day moving average (MA) below the upper band draws a flat channel, indicating a sideways market over a longer period.

The VB High TDI indicator is showing a value of 57, and the VB Low is showing a value of 35. The difference of 22 reflects the volatility value on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line is showing a value of 48 with a descending channel, indicating a greater bearish weight than bullishness.

The RSI Price Line is showing a value of 52, with an ascending channel crossing the TSL and MBL from below, indicating an uptrend.

The Trade Signal Line is showing a value of 48 with an ascending channel, indicating an uptrend.

XTIUSD H4

WTI crude oil prices are near the upper band on the H4 timeframe. The Bollinger Bands draw an upward channel with relatively wide band spacing, indicating bullish sentiment with moderate volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) below the middle band draws a slightly upward channel, indicating weak bullish sentiment. The 200-day moving average (MA) above the upper band draws a flat channel, indicating a sideways market over the longer term.

The TDI indicator's VB High is at 71, and its VB Low is at 39. The difference of 32 reflects the volatility value on the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base Line is at 69, with the upward channel beginning to curve downward, indicating a trend transition to the downside.

The Trade Signal Line is at 66, with the upward channel indicating an uptrend.

 

[radex78]

Gold prices held near $3,400 as Fed rate cut bets hinge on data.

Gold prices held steady on Wednesday, although the US dollar recovered from earlier losses triggered by threats to the Fed's independence. Gold traded with a bullish candle, forming a high of $3,398 and a low of $3,373, closing at $3,396, according to FXOpen's trading platform.

Gold prices (XAU/USD) in 2025 are generally in a significant uptrend, even nearly reaching a record high of $3,400 per troy ounce. Current market sentiment is bullish, pointing to price increases, although there is a potential for a short-term correction. Many analysts project gold prices to continue rising through the end of 2025 and even into 2026.

The Fed's monetary policy remains a key focus for gold. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole symposium hinted at a looser policy. However, a Fed official, New York Fed President John Williams, said that interest rates could be lowered at some point but emphasized that only data would indicate whether a rate cut was appropriate, based on economic performance.

The Fed's next meeting is scheduled for September 16-17. Leading up to that date, there will be another jobs report, as well as two inflation reports—the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index for July and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for August—before the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) gathers for its sixth meeting of the year.

The implications of a Fed rate cut could drive up the price of non-yielding gold by lowering the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold.

Weaker US economic data and forecasts could strengthen the argument that the Fed has reason to loosen monetary policy to support economic growth. This could provide positive support for gold. Several economic data releases today will be in focus for traders, such as preliminary GDP, unemployment claims, and home sales, which could provide subtle clues about the US economy.

Prolonged geopolitical conflicts, such as those in the Middle East, and political situations in the US, such as the issue of the dismissal of the Fed chairman, could increase demand for safe-haven assets like gold, which is traditionally considered a hedge.

Gold purchases by global central banks continue. Their actions to diversify foreign exchange reserves and reduce dependence on the US dollar are strong pillars supporting gold prices.

On the other hand, global inflation remains a concern. Although US inflation has shown a decline, concerns about global inflation persist. Gold is often considered a hedge against inflation.

Today, market attention will focus on US economic data, particularly the PCE and revised GDP. The PCE index is an inflation indicator closely monitored by the Fed. If PCE data shows a decline, expectations of interest rate cuts strengthen. Revised GDP data provide a snapshot of the US economy; weaker data support the argument for monetary policy easing and support gold prices.

XAUUSD D1

The daily gold price remains stuck below the key $3,400 level. It is currently near the upper band line. Here, the Bollinger Bands draw a flat channel with relatively narrow band spacing, reflecting a sideways market with relatively low volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) near the middle band below the current price draws a flat channel, indicating a sideways market with upside potential. The 200-day moving average (MA) is well below the lower band, draws an ascending channel, indicating bullish sentiment over the longer term.

The TDI indicator's VB High is at 60, and its VB Low is at 42. The difference of 18 reflects the volatility values on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line is at 51 with a flat channel, indicating a greater bullish weighting than the bearish weighting.

The RSI Price Line is at 59, with an ascending channel crossing the MBL from below, indicating an uptrend.

The Trade Signal Line is at 54, with an ascending channel crossing the MBL from below, indicating an uptrend.

XAUUSD H4

The gold price on the H4 timeframe is near the upper band. Here, the Bollinger Bands draw an upward channel with relatively wide band spacing, reflecting bullish sentiment and relatively high volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) near the lower band draws a flat channel, indicating a sideways market. The price is slightly above the line, indicating a strong uptrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) near the lower band also draws a flat channel, indicating a sideways market over a longer period.

The VB High TDI indicator shows a value of 73, and VB Low shows a value of 45. The difference of 28 reflects the volatility value on the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base Line shows a value of 59 with an upward channel, indicating a greater bullish weighting than bearishness.

The RSI Price Line shows a value of 67, with a channel that is starting to flatten, crossing the TSL from the bottom, indicating a sideways market.

The Trade Signal Line shows a value of 63, with a flat channel, indicating a sideways market.

 

[radex78]

Gold Prices Optimistic Amid Dovish Fed Signals

Gold prices rose on Friday, drawing a bullish candle, extending their consecutive gains from the previous few days. On Friday, gold prices formed a high of 3453, a low of 3404, and a close of 3447 on FXOpen's platform. Gold's rise crossed the upper band line, which had previously served as a solid resistance level.

Gold's strong bullish trend has shown a significant upward trend throughout August 2025, with gold prices rising sharply, recording its best monthly performance since April. Analysts generally predict this bullish trend will continue, with several ambitious price targets set until the end of 2025.

The main sentiment driving the gold price increase is growing market expectations that the Fed will cut its benchmark interest rate. The likelihood of a rate cut at the FOMC meeting in September 2025 is estimated to be very high, supported by weakening inflation and labor market data.

The Fed's looser monetary policy tends to depreciate the US dollar. A weaker US dollar makes dollar-denominated gold cheaper for buyers using other currencies, increasing its appeal. Throughout August 2025, the US dollar recorded its worst monthly decline in recent months.

Geopolitical risks, such as tensions in the United States, have also increased investor interest in gold as a safe haven.

Technically, gold prices have successfully broken out of their previous channel, exhibiting strong bullish momentum, which indicates potential for continued upside. Some analysts are targeting prices around $3,433 and $3,486. Other medium-term analysts project targets around $3,500 and even $3,600 per troy ounce in the second half of 2025. Strong support levels have formed around $3,410 and $3,412. Although some analysts are bullish, they should be wary of a potential retracement before prices resume their momentum.

Today, banks in Canada and the US will be closed in observance of Labor Day, which has the potential to reduce market volumes.

XAUUSD D1

The gold price on the daily timeframe is now above the upper band. This indicates a significant increase that could potentially end the previously formed Bollinger Band Squeeze pattern.

The 50-day moving average (MA) near the middle band draws a flat channel, indicating a sideways trend with potential bullish sentiment. The 200-day moving average (MA) well below the lower band draws a slightly rising channel, indicating bullish sentiment over the longer term.

The VB High TDI indicator is at 62, and the VB Low is at 42. The difference of 20 reflects the volatility value on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line is at 52 with a flat channel, indicating a greater bullish weighting than the bearish weighting.

The RSI Price Line is at 64, with an upward channel crossing the TSL and MBL from below, indicating an uptrend.

The Trade Signal Line is at 57, with an upward channel crossing the MBL from below, indicating an uptrend.

XAUUSD H4

The gold price on the H4 timeframe is slightly outside the upper band. The Bollinger Bands draw an upward channel, with the upper and lower bands spaced apart, reflecting strong bullish sentiment.

The 50-day moving average (MA) near the lower band draws an upward channel, indicating strong bullish sentiment. The 200-day moving average (MA) below the lower band draws a smoother channel, reflecting flat sentiment over a longer period.

The VB High TDI indicator shows a value of 76, and VB Low shows a value of 53. The difference of 23 reflects the volatility value on the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base Line shows a value of 64 with an upward channel, indicating a greater bullish weighting than a bearish one.

The RSI Price Line shows a value of 77, with a channel that appears to be flattening, indicating the price is now entering overbought levels.

The Trade Signal Line shows a value of 70 with an upward channel, indicating an uptrend.

 

[radex78]

Silver prices surge to record highs for 2025

Silver prices showed significant movement on Monday. They drew a long-bodied bullish candle with almost no shadows. This extended the previous rally since late August 2025. Silver prices formed a high of 40,753, a low of 39,531, and a close of 40,701 on FXOpen's trading platform.

The main driver of silver prices is that this asset is often considered a safe haven during times of economic uncertainty and geopolitical turmoil. Reports indicate ongoing geopolitical turmoil, which supports bullish sentiment toward precious metals, including silver.

Furthermore, silver production does not always keep pace with industrial demand, thus supporting price increases. Silver, besides being a safe-haven investment asset, also serves a dual purpose as an industrial raw material, particularly for solar panels, electronics, and electric vehicles. Stable or high demand without sufficient production will drive prices up.

The weakening US dollar is also a focus for traders. The US dollar index is currently weakening. One reason for this weakening is expectations that the Fed will cut interest rates in September 2025. Lower interest rates reduce the USD's attractiveness, and investors are tending to choose other assets, including silver.

Recent US economic data has shown mixed signals. US GDP reportedly grew in the second quarter, which could support the USD. However, the market will be more focused on upcoming data such as the Non-Farm Payrolls report and the manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data, which could provide further clues regarding the Fed's policy direction.

The Fed is currently awaiting economic data to decide its next move. While there are strong expectations for an interest rate cut, any stronger-than-expected economic data could delay that plan, potentially strengthening the USD and pressuring silver prices.

Current market sentiment is bullish, and silver has recorded significant price increases, reaching record highs throughout 2025. In recent sessions, silver prices have broken through key levels and finally reached a 14-year high. However, the risk of a pullback remains, with the RSI indicator currently showing overbought levels, indicating potential for short-term consolidation or a pullback.

Traders' focus going forward will be on US economic data, particularly the Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report, which will be released on September 5th. Weaker data will further strengthen expectations of a Fed rate cut, which could support silver prices. Conversely, stronger-than-expected data could strengthen the USD and depress silver prices.

XAGUSD D1

Silver prices are currently above the upper band, indicating very high volatility after successfully breaking through a key level near 39,225. The Bollinger Bands are drawing an ascending channel, with the upper and lower bands diverging from each other, reflecting bullish sentiment and increasing volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) below the middle band is drawing an ascending channel, indicating strong bullish sentiment. The 200-day moving average (MA) is well below the lower band, drawing a slightly ascending channel, indicating bullish sentiment over the longer term.

The VB High TDI indicator is showing a value of 71, and the VB Low is showing a value of 44. The difference of 26 reflects the volatility value on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line is showing a value of 57 within a descending channel, indicating greater bullishness than bearishness, with potential for a decline.

The RSI Price Line is pointing at 69, with the ascending channel crossing the TSL and MBL from below, indicating an uptrend entering overbought territory.

The Trade Signal Line is pointing at 61, with the ascending channel crossing the MBL from below, indicating an uptrend.

XAGUSD H4

The silver price on the H4 timeframe is near the upper band line. The Bollinger bands appear to be expanding, reflecting sharply increased market volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) is below the middle band, drawing an ascending channel, indicating strong bullish sentiment. The 200-day moving average (MA) is below the 50-day moving average (MA), drawing a slightly ascending channel, indicating bullish sentiment over the longer term. A golden cross signal is present on this timeframe.

The VB High TDI indicator is pointing at 80, and the VB Low is pointing at 45. The difference of 35 reflects the volatility value on the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base Line is pointing at 63 with an ascending channel, indicating greater bullishness than bearishness, and potential upside.

The RSI Price Line is pointing at 82, with an ascending channel that is starting to flatten, indicating an overbought uptrend and a potential pullback.

The Trade Signal Line is pointing at 81, with an ascending channel, indicating an uptrend.

 

[radex78]

WTI oil prices corrected after failing to break through the MA50.

The price of WTI (World Texas Intermediate) oil on Wednesday drew a long-bodied bearish candle with almost no shadow. Oil prices depreciated after failing to break through the 50-day moving average (MA50), which acted as a dynamic resistance level. Oil prices reached a high of 65.35, a low of 63.55, and closed at 63.58, according to FXOpen's trading platform.

The oil price plunge was influenced by various factors, including economic strengths and weaknesses, geopolitical events that can impact oil supply and demand, and the role of OPEC+, a key pillar in global oil distribution.

OPEC+, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, recently agreed to increase oil production. This decision, effective in September, could put downward pressure on oil prices by increasing supply in the global market. OPEC+ is scheduled to meet on September 7, 2025. Speculation regarding the outcome of this meeting could cause price volatility. Some analysts expect OPEC+ to maintain its voluntary production cuts, particularly from Saudi Arabia and Russia, while awaiting clearer demand data after the US summer holiday season. If OPEC+ chooses to withhold supply, this could support oil prices; conversely, if they decide to increase production further, oil prices could potentially fall.

From a geopolitical perspective, US sanctions against entities involved in oil shipping, particularly those linked to Iran, could impact global supply. The market reacted by strengthening oil prices due to concerns that supplies from non-sanctioned sources would become increasingly limited. Elsewhere, ongoing Russia-Ukraine tensions, including the potential for sanctions escalation, continue to be a major geopolitical risk factor. These tensions could disrupt the supply chain and push oil prices up due to increased risk premiums.

Another focus is on economic and inventory data. The EIA (U.S. Energy Information Administration) report is often a key driver of oil prices. The upcoming weekly release of crude oil inventory data on September 5th is crucial. If the data shows an increase in inventories, it indicates weak demand and could depress oil prices. Conversely, a decrease in inventories indicates strong demand and supports oil prices.

After the summer holiday season ends, there are usually concerns about a decline in gasoline demand. This could be a factor that puts downward pressure on oil prices, although inventory data will provide clearer confirmation.

Oil prices are also inversely correlated with the USD. Oil prices traded in US dollars tend to trade inversely. If the US dollar weakens, oil prices tend to rise. Conversely, if the USD strengthens, oil prices tend to weaken. This movement in the US dollar can influence the XTI/USD movement.

Today, oil prices are likely to be highly dependent on sentiment ahead of the OPEC+ meeting later this week and the release of relevant US economic data.

XTIUSD D1

The WTI oil price on the daily timeframe is currently near the middle band. Here, the Bollinger Bands draw a flat channel with narrow band spacing, indicating a sideways market with low volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) near the upper band draws a flat channel, indicating a sideways market with a bearish bias. The 200-day moving average (MA) above the upper band draws a flat channel, indicating a sideways market over a longer period.

The VB High TDI indicator shows a value of 57, and VB Low shows a value of 35. The difference of 22 reflects the volatility value on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line shows a value of 46 with a flat channel, indicating a greater bearish weight than bullishness.

The RSI Price Line shows a value of 47, with a descending channel crossing the TSL from above, indicating a downtrend.

The Trade Signal Line shows a value of 49 with a flat channel, indicating a sideways market.

XTIUSD H4

Oil prices on the H4 timeframe are above the lower band. Here, the Bollinger Bands draw a flat channel with wide band spacing, indicating a sideways market with relatively high volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) below the middle band draws a flat channel, indicating a sideways market. The 200-day moving average (MA) above the middle band draws a flat channel, indicating a sideways market.

The VB High TDI indicator shows a value of 68, and VB Low shows a value of 42. The difference of 26 reflects the volatility value on the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base Line shows a value of 55 with a flat channel, indicating a greater bullish weighting than bearish weighting.

The RSI Price Line shows a value of 40, with a descending channel crossing the TSL and MBL from above, indicating a downtrend.

The Trade Signal Line shows a value of 48, with a descending channel crossing the MBL from above, indicating a downtrend.

 

[radex78]

USD/JPY gapped at the opening market.

On Friday, the US dollar and Japanese yen currency pair formed a long bearish candle with a wick below the candle. The price formed a high of 148.515, a low of 146.818, and a close of 147.387 on FXOpen's trading platform. Today, Monday, September 8, 2025, the USD/JPY open price is well above Friday's closing price, with the USD/JPY opening at 148.077.

Factors influencing market sentiment include recent data, which indicates weak US employment. The latest Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report showed job gains that fell short of market expectations. This figure reinforces the signal that the US labor market is slowing. Market implications of weaker-than-expected data will increase speculation that the Fed will cut its benchmark interest rate soon, at its September meeting. Lower interest rates are less attractive to investors for the USD and support the strengthening of the JPY.

Inflation data due this week will be a major focus. While concerns about inflation persist, the market appears to be more influenced by signs of economic slowdown, as evidenced by employment data. If inflation data shows a decline, or at least no significant increase, this would further confirm speculation about a Fed interest rate cut and potentially put further pressure on the USD.

The slight correction on Wall Street suggests investors are weighing economic concerns against optimism about a rate cut. The weakening of the US dollar against major currencies, including the Japanese yen, reflects this shift in sentiment.

The Japanese yen is traditionally considered a safe-haven currency. Amid concerns about global fiscal instability and a US economic slowdown, investors tend to shift to safer assets, including the Japanese yen. Increased demand for the yen as a safe-haven has boosted the currency, particularly against the depressed US dollar.

In Japan, despite political uncertainty surrounding the resignation of the ruling party, which could impact the Prime Minister, the market appears to have reacted less to this news. Market focus is more on global economic data and key monetary policies, compared to Japan's domestic political turmoil, which has not significantly affected current currency movements.

The BoJ has previously indicated its intention to continue gradual monetary tightening. Recent statements from BoJ officials indicate that the central bank is monitoring economic growth and exchange rate movements. The BoJ's current policy pause and the possibility of further interest rate hikes in the future provide structural support for the yen. This contrasts with the Fed's expected rate cuts.

Based on recent data, USD/JPY movement tends to be under pressure from the US dollar. The USD's weakening was driven by expectations of a Fed rate cut following disappointing employment data. Meanwhile, the Japanese yen is supported by its status as a safe-haven currency amid global uncertainty and the BoJ's policy, which still signals future monetary tightening.

USDJPY D1

On the daily timeframe, the Japanese Yen price is currently moving between the upper and middle band lines. The Bollinger Bands draw a flat channel with narrow band spacing, reflecting sideways movement with low volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) below the middle band draws an ascending channel, indicating bullish sentiment. Meanwhile, the 200-day moving average (MA) near the upper band draws a descending channel, indicating the opposite signal on higher timeframes.

The VB High TDI indicator shows a value of 61, and VB Low shows a value of 44. The difference of 17 reflects the volatility value on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line shows a value of 52 with a descending channel, indicating a greater bullish weight than bearish, with potential for a decline.

The RSI Price Line shows a value of 51, with a descending channel crossing the MBL and TSL from above, indicating a downtrend.

The Trade Signal Line shows a value of 52 with a flat channel, indicating a sideways market.

USDJPY H4

The Japanese Yen is currently near the middle band on the H4 timeframe. The gap is attempting to cross the middle band from below. Here, the Bollinger Bands appear to be expanding, indicating high market volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) draws a flat channel between the middle and lower bands, indicating a sideways market. The 200-day moving average (MA) also draws a flat channel overlapping the 50-day moving average (MA), indicating a sideways market over a longer period.

The VB High TDI indicator is at 68, and the VB Low is at 39. The difference of 29 reflects the volatility value on the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base Line is at 54 with an upward channel, indicating a greater bullish weighting than bearishness.

The RSI Price Line is at 47, with an upward channel crossing the TSL from below, indicating an uptrend.

The Trade Signal Line is at 46, with a downward channel indicating a downtrend.

 

[radex78]

Gold Hits New Record High of $3,674 per troy ounce

Gold prices have again set a new all-time high for 2025. Yesterday, Tuesday, gold prices rose to a high of $3,674 at the start of the American session. This increase was in line with news indicating that Israel launched an attack on Qatar, targeting Hamas leaders, including Khalil Al-Hayya and Zaher Jabarin.

On Tuesday, gold prices drew a bearish candle with a wick at the top of the candle, indicating a downward movement after reaching an all-time high and closing lower. Gold formed a high of 3,674, a low of 3,625, and a close of 3,626 on FXOpen's platform.

Based on fundamental analysis, gold's rise was primarily driven by rising market expectations of a Fed interest rate cut, likely to begin this September. According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, the Fed is expected to cut rates by 25 basis points with a 92.7% probability at its September 17 meeting.

The impact of the Fed's looser policies has made the yields on dollar-based assets such as bonds less attractive. As a result, investors have shifted to safe-haven assets like gold, which offers no yield but serves as a hedge against inflation and global economic uncertainty. The weakening USD has increased the appeal of gold because it is priced in dollars.

US economic data, such as weak NFP figures, have fueled concerns about a potential economic slowdown. Furthermore, uncertain geopolitical conditions have also driven demand for safe-haven assets like gold.

Another factor supporting gold is the strong and sustained demand from central banks. Global central banks continue to increase their gold reserves as a diversification from fixed currencies, especially the US dollar. These purchases create solid physical demand in the market, providing strong support for gold prices from a fundamental perspective.

The gold price outlook for the next few years is expected to be very positive, with several factors supporting this outlook:

Continued monetary easing. Many analysts, including those from major institutions like JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs, project gold prices could reach $4,250 by 2026. The reason is that the Fed has truly begun its cycle of interest rate cuts and monetary policy loosening, which will continue to put pressure on the USD and increase gold's appeal. This situation could persist for the next few years, providing conducive support for gold prices to rise.

Persistent inflation. Many economists believe that inflation will remain a global issue in the long term. Gold is known as an effective hedge against inflation. If inflation continues to rise or remains high in various countries, investors will continue to hoard gold to protect the purchasing power of their assets.

Global geopolitical and economic tensions. Geopolitical risks due to war, particularly in the Middle East, show no signs of abating. If this continues for the next few years, it could support gold prices as a safe haven asset amid geopolitical tensions and global economic uncertainty.

Gold price predictions for 2027-2030: Some analysts even predict a significant increase, projected to reach a range of $4,812-$6,546. This long-term projection is based on the assumption that gold will continue to be a highly valuable asset amidst the changing global economic and political landscape.

Today, market participants will turn their attention to inflation data in the United States (US). The country will release the Producer Price Index (PPI) for August and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for the same month on Thursday. Inflation data will receive extra attention after disappointing employment figures and ahead of the Federal Reserve's (The Fed) monetary policy announcement next week.

XAUUSD D1

The gold price on the daily timeframe is currently below the upper band. Here, the Bollinger Bands show the upper and lower bands moving away from each other, indicating increased market volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) below the middle band draws an upward channel, indicating strong bullish sentiment. The 200-day moving average (MA) is well below the lower band, drawing an upward channel, indicating bullish sentiment over a longer timeframe.

The TDI indicator's VB High is at 77, and its VB Low is at 37. The difference of 40 reflects the volatility value on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line is at 57 with an upward channel, indicating a greater weighting of bullishness over bearishness.

The RSI Price Line is at 78 with a flattened curved channel, indicating overbought prices and fading gains.

The Trade Signal Line is at 77 with an upward channel, indicating a market uptrend.

XAUUSD H4

The gold price on the H4 timeframe is above the middle band line. Here, the Bollinger Bands draw an ascending channel with wide band spacing, indicating bullish sentiment and high market volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) near the lower band draws an ascending channel, indicating strong bullish sentiment. The 200-day moving average (MA) is well below the lower band draws an ascending channel, indicating bullish sentiment over a longer timeframe.

The VB High TDI indicator shows a value of 83, and the VB Low shows a value of 60. The difference of 23 reflects the volatility value on the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base Line shows a value of 71 with a descending channel, indicating a greater bullish weighting than bearishness, and a potential downside.

The RSI Price Line shows a value of 60, drawing a descending channel crossing the TSL and MBL from above, indicating a market downtrend.

The Trade Signal Line shows a value of 73 with a descending channel, indicating a market downtrend.

 

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Oil prices plummet after the US releases CPI data

The XTI/USD price movement on Thursday drew a long-bodied bearish candle with almost no shadow. WTI oil prices fell from a high of 63.47 to a low of 61.97 and closed at 62.00 on FXOpen's trading platform. The downward movement in oil prices ended the previous three-day winning streak.

The decline in oil prices coincided with the release of disappointing US inflation and jobless claims data. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported a core CPI of 0.3%, meeting expectations. The monthly CPI rose 0.4%, higher than the previous month's 0.3%. The annual CPI was 2.9%. US jobless claims rose to 263,000, up from the forecast of 235,000. This higher data fueled expectations of a Fed rate cut to boost the labor market.

Another fundamental report that draws attention to the dynamics of oil supply and demand is the US oil inventory report from the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). This can be a key driver of supply and demand indicators. Based on the latest available data, dated August 8, 2025, US crude oil inventories increased more than expected. This increase in inventories could theoretically exert downward pressure on oil prices, indicating a supply surplus. However, the market will be paying close attention to the subsequent EIA report, which may show a different figure. The market can be highly sensitive to this data.

The market is also anticipating seasonal demand; reports indicate that the market is anticipating the end of the summer "driving season" in the United States. This often leads to expectations of reduced gasoline demand and can put downward pressure on oil prices.

Geopolitical conflicts are also in focus. Market sentiment is influenced by the Russia-Ukraine war. News of a potential meeting between US and Russian leaders to discuss a ceasefire could raise hopes for a resolution to the conflict, potentially lifting sanctions on Russian oil supplies, which could increase global supply and depress oil prices. However, a possible escalation of the war after Poland opened the floodgates to Russia's war with NATO could push up oil prices.

The US tariff policy, which postponed new tariffs with China, has provided positive market sentiment. A trade deal or ceasefire in the tariff war could boost the global economy, which in turn could boost oil demand.

OPEC+ has announced the release of significant production cuts, including an additional 547 kb/d for September, accelerating the return of supply to the market. Non-OPEC producers are also increasing output, significantly increasing global supply.

Demand growth in China, Brazil, India, and several other developing countries has fallen short of expectations, indicating a demand slowdown. Consumption in the OECD region has remained relatively flat, indicating that growth in developed economies cannot withstand the burden of the connection if external factors are unfavorable.

In the short term, there is potential for downward pressure on oil prices, particularly if output increases and inventories increase, and economic data from major economies shows weakness.

In the medium to long term, despite an inventory overhang and strong demand, geopolitical factors and OPEC+ production policies could still trigger upside if there are supply disruptions and policy changes.

XTIUSD D1

The WTI oil price on the daily timeframe is currently above the lower band. The Bollinger Bands draw a flat channel with relatively narrow band spacing, indicating range-bound movement with low volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) is below the upper band, some distance from the price, drawing a slightly descending channel, indicating bearish sentiment. The 200-day moving average (MA) above the upper band draws a flat channel, indicating a sideways market over the longer term.

The VB High TDI indicator is showing a value of 56, and the VB Low is showing a value of 34. The difference of 22 reflects the volatility value on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line is showing a value of 45 with a flat channel, indicating a greater bearish weight than bullish weight.

The RSI Price Line is showing a value of 42 with a descending channel, indicating a downtrend.

The Trade Signal Line is showing a value of 43, with a descending channel crossing the MBL from above, indicating a downtrend.

XTIUSD H4

The WTI oil price on the H4 timeframe is near the lower band. The Bollinger Bands draw a horizontal channel with fairly wide intervals, indicating range movement with relatively high volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) below the upper band draws a descending channel, indicating bearish sentiment. The 200-day moving average (MA) above the upper band draws a descending channel, indicating bearish sentiment over the longer term.

The TDI indicator's VB High is at 57, and its VB Low is at 28. The difference of 29 reflects the volatility value on the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base Line is at 43 with a flat channel, indicating a greater bearish weight than bullishness.

The RSI Price Line is at 37, with a descending channel crossing the TSL and MBL from above, indicating a downtrend.

The Trade Signal Line is at 46, with a descending channel, indicating a downtrend.

Disclaimer: This analysis represents my own opinion only. It is not to be construed as an opinion, offer, solicitation, recommendation, or financial advice of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand.