Daily Analysis Forex Mix

[radex78]

Waiting for UK inflation data, GBP/USD rose slightly above the middle band

The GBPUSD pair has still been moving in the price range of 1.28705 - 1.30144 since March 11 between the middle band and the upper band line. Yesterday the pair drew a small-bodied bullish candle with a little shadow on the top and bottom of the candle. The price formed a high of 1.29669 low of 1.29020, closing at 1.29431, although slightly up, but generally still moving in the previous week's range.

The dollar index (DXY), which tracks the USD against six major currencies, fell slightly yesterday at a low of 103.944 from the previous high of 104.467. DXY closed at 104.211. The DXY movement is still below the EMA 20, which may be a dynamic resistance. While the RSI is at level 41 with the potential for a downtrend that may continue.

In the US, according to Adriana Kugler, the Governor of the Federal Reserve, stated that in certain categories, there is evidence that inflation has increased again in recent months. Another Fed official, New York Fed President John Williams, said that businesses and households are experiencing increasing uncertainty about the future of the economy.

US inflation concerns may increase and push the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged, which may increase USD adoption. According to the CME group Fedwatch tool, the Fed's likelihood of leaving interest rates unchanged in the current range of 4.25%-4.50% is 87.1%, and the possibility of a 0.25% cut is only 12.9% at the May 7 meeting later.

Today, investors will focus on UK inflation data, CPI year-on-year is estimated to remain at 3.0% the same as the previous revision. The BoE also maintained the latest interest rate of 4.50% issued in March 20. Besides CPI, investors will also pay attention to the Annual Budget Release, which will outline the government's budget for the year.

GBPUSD D1

GBPUSD pair on the daily timeframe is now priced above the middle band line. Bollinger band draws a rising channel with wide band spacing, reflecting bullish sentiment with high volatility.

MA 50 near the lower band draws a rising channel, indicating bullish sentiment. MA 200 below the middle band line draws a flat channel, indicating sideways market on 200 days.

VB High TDI indicator shows value 75, and VB Low shows value 51. Difference 24 reflects the volatility value on the daily timeframe.

Market Base Line shows value 63 with rising channel, which means bullish weight is greater than bearish.

RSI Price Line shows a value of 62 with an ascending channel indicating an uptrend market.

Trade Signal Line shows a value of 65 with a descending channel indicating a downtrend market.

GBPUSD H4

GBPUSD pair on H4 timeframe price is moving above the middle band line. Here Bollinger band draws a flat channel with shrinking band spacing, indicating sideways market with lower volatility.

MA 50 is slightly above the middle band line drawing a flat channel reflecting a sideways market. MA 200 is far below the lower band, drawing an upward change,l indicating bullish sentiment in a longer period.

VB High TDI indicator shows a value of 62, and VB Low shows a value of 35. The difference of 27 reflects the volatility value in the H4 timeframe.

Market Base Line shows a value of 49 with a downward channel, meaning the bearish weight is greater than the bullish.

RSI Price Line shows a value of 50 with a downward channel, indicating a downtrend market.

Trade Signal Line shows a value of 48 with an upward channel indicating an uptrend market.

 

[radex78]

EUR/USD is more down ahead of US economic data

Yesterday, EURUSD crossed the middle band line and drew a bearish candle extending the previous decline since March 19. The price formed a high of 1.08027, a low of 1.07440, and a close of 1.07537. The economic outlook in several European countries with negative sentiment seems to be the reason for the weakening of the Euro against the US dollar lately. The trade war echoed by US President Donald Trump is expected to also have an impact on Europe. Trump has repeatedly hinted that he will impose tariffs on Europe because it does not buy enough American goods.

The dollar index (DXY) still maintained its strengthening yesterday after dropping to a low of 103.944. Yesterday, DXY rose to 104.683, trying to cross the EMA 20 from the downside. The RSI indicator drew an upward channel pointing to level 47, indicating that the price is increasingly leaving the oversold zone level.

In Europe, expectations of central banks to lower interest rates are increasing, amid economic risks caused by Trump's tariffs on the continent. With low interest rates, it is hoped that it can boost the domestic economy when external conditions are not supportive.

Germany, one of the developed countries in Europe, has extended the borrowing limit to increase defense spending and create a 500 billion Euro infrastructure fund. This could support the circulation of the Euro in the European region, which in turn supports the domestic economy.

On the other hand, ECB President Christine Lagarde tried to ease concerns and stated that the inflationary impact of the trade war was only temporary and would subside in the medium term.

Investors and traders today will pay attention to US economic data. According to Forexfactory, there will be a release of the Final GDP per quarter, which is estimated to be the same as the previous revision of 2.3%. The Final GDP Price Index is estimated at 2.4%. Meanwhile, the Unemployment Claims data is expected to be 225k from the previous revision of 223k.

EURUSD D1

The EURUSD pair on the daily timeframe is now below the middle band line. Yesterday, the price managed to break through the middle band line from the upper side. Here, the Bollinger band draws an upward channel with the band starting to shrink indicating downward volatility.

The MA 50 above the lower band draws an upward change,l indicating bullish sentiment. The MA 200 near the lower band line draws a flat channel, indicating sideways market.

The VB High TDI indicator shows a value of 75, and the VB Low shows a value of 44. The difference of 31 reflects the volatility value on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line shows a value of 60 with a flat channel, meaning the bullish weight is greater than the bearish.

The RSI Price Line shows a value of 51 with a downward channel crossing the TSL and MBL from the upper side, indicating a downtrend market.

The Trade Signal Line shows a value of 57 with a downward channel crossing the MBL from the upper side, indicating a downtrend market.

EURUSD H4

The EURUSD pair on the H4 timeframe is below the lower band line, the price breaks the lower band, reflecting rising volatility. Bollinger bands draw a descending channel with the band spacing starting to expand indicating bearish sentiment with rising volatility.

MA 50 near the upper band line draws a flat channel, indicating sideways market. MA 200 is slightly below the upper band line, drawing an ascending channel indicating bullish sentiment. However, the price is below both MAs, reflecting bearish sentiment.

VB High TDI indicator shows a value of 49, and VB Low shows a value of 32. The difference of 17 reflects the volatility value on the H4 timeframe.

Market Base Line shows a value of 40 with a descending channel, meaning the bearish weight is greater than the bullish.

RSI Price Line shows a value of 32 with a descending channel crossing the TSL from the upper side, indicating a downtrend market.

Trade Signal Line shows a value of 37, drawing a descending channel indicating a downtrend market.

 

[radex78]

Trump's tariffs threaten the auto industry, USD/CAD slightly up, seeking a new balance.

The USDCAD pair drew a bullish candle yesterday, the Canadian dollar weakened amid US President Donald Trump's new tariff threat on cars manufactured outside the US to be subject to a 25% tariff. Trump's new tariffs will certainly get a response from his trading partner countries, including Japan. Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba said his cabinet was considering all kinds of retaliatory measures.

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney called Trump's tariffs a direct attack on workers in his country. He said the cabinet would meet on Thursday to discuss retaliatory measures.

In line with Trump's statement, the dollar index (DXY), which tracks the USD against six major currencies, briefly rose to 104.653 but fell later to a low of 104.070 with a close of 104.279. The DXY is moving near the 20 EMA, which seems to act as dynamic resistance at a given time.

US final quarterly GDP data showed a value of 2.4% higher than the expected 2.3%, but the Final GDP Price Index fell 2.3% from the expected 2.4%. While unemployment claims fell 224 from the expected 225k.

Today, investors and traders will focus on the Core PCE Price Index data, which is the Fed's most preferred inflation data for interest rate policy. The PCE index is estimated at 0.3%. On the other hand, Canada will release GDP which is estimated to increase 0.3% from the previous 0.2%.

USDCAD D1

From a technical perspective, the USDCAD pair on the daily timeframe is now below the middle band line. Here, the Bollinger bands draw a flat channel with a rather narrow band spacing, reflecting a sideways market with moderate volatility.

The MA 50 is slightly below the middle band line, drawing a flat channel indicating a sideways market. The MA 200 is far below the lower band, drawing a slightly upward channel, indicating bullish sentiment in the longer period.

The VB High TDI indicator shows a value of 61, and the VB Low shows a value of 35. The difference of 26 reflects the volatility value on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line shows a value of 48 with a flat channel, meaning the bearish weight is greater than the bullish.

The RSI Price Line shows a value of 47 with an upward channel indicating an uptrend market.

The Trade Signal Line shows a value of 47 with a flat channel indicating a sideways market.

USDCAD H4

USDCAD on the H4 timeframe is now above the middle band line. The Bollinger bands draw a slightly downward channel with a rather narrow band spacing reflecting weak volatility.

MA 50 above the middle band line draws a slight downward channel, indicating weak bearish sentiment. MA 200 above MA 50 draws a flat channel, indicating a sideways market.

VB High TDI indicator shows a value of 56, and VB Low shows a value of 35. The difference of 21 reflects the volatility value in the H4 timeframe.

Market Base Line shows a value of 46 with a flat channel, meaning the bearish weight is greater than the bullish.

RSI Price Line shows a value of 52 with a flat channel, indicating a sideways market.

Trade Signal Line shows a value of 48 with an upward channel crossing the MBL from the bottom, indicating an uptrend market.

 

[radex78]

Gold prices hit new record highs amid trade war fears

On Friday, gold prices soared higher, extending gains by drawing a long-bodied bullish candle with almost no shadow. Prices formed a high of 3086, a low of 3054, and a close of 3084.

Investors appear to still be fearful of the impact of the trade war caused by President Donald Trump's tariff policies. Market sentiment is pessimistic as traders prepare for April 2, which was dubbed Liberation Day by US President Donald Trump, who signed an executive order imposing a 25% tariff on all cars imported into the US. This has sparked reactions around the world, especially in Canada and the European Union (EU), which have begun preparing retaliatory measures against the move.

Looking at the PCE data released on Friday, it showed actual 0.4% higher than expected 0.3%. The Bureau of Economic Analysis report showed that personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased by $87.8 billion (0.4%). Despite the increase in core PCE, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly expects the Fed to make two interest rate cuts in 2025.

The dollar index (DXY), which tracks the US dollar against six other major currencies, dropped to 104.011 in response to US data on Friday. Previously, the DXY was at a high of 104.498. Meanwhile, according to the CME group's Fedwatch tool, at the Fed's May 7 meeting, the Fed is expected to maintain interest rates at 4.25%-4.50% with a probability of 83.8%, and a cut probability of 4.%-4.25%, only 16.2%.

Today's economic data that may be of concern to investors is the China Manufacturing PMI, which is estimated to be the same as the previous period at 0.5%.

XAUUSD D1

The gold price on the daily timeframe is now below the upper band line. Bollinger band draws a rising channel with a wide band reflecting bullish sentiment with high volatility.

MA 50 below the middle band draws a rising channel, indicating bullish sentiment. MA 200 far below the lower band draws a rising channel, indicating bullish sentiment on a longer period.

VB High TDI indicator shows the value of 78, and VB Low shows a value of 53. Difference 25 reflects the volatility value on the daily timeframe.

Market Base Line shows value 66 with a flat channel, which means bullish weight is greater than bearish.

RSI Price Line shows value 72 with rising channel crossing MBL and TSL from the lower side, indicating the uptrend market is in an overbought zone.

Trade Signal Line shows a value of 68 with a flat channel, indicating a sideways market.

XAUUSD H4

Gold on the H4 timeframe is moving near the upper band line. Here Bollinger band draws a rising channel with widening band space, reflecting bullish sentiment with increasing volatility.

MA 50 near the middle band line draws an upward channel, indicating bullish sentiment. MA 200 far below the lower band draws an upward channel, indicating bullish sentiment.

VB High TDI indicator shows a value of 75, and VB Low shows a value of 37. The difference of 38 reflects the volatility value in the H4 timeframe.

Market Base Line shows a value of 56 with a flat channel, meaning the bullish weight is greater than the bearish.

RSI Price Line shows a value of 73, with a downward channel crossing the TSL from the upper side, indicating a downtrend market trying to get out of the overbought zone.

Trade Signal Line shows a value of 75, with a flat channel indicating a fading uptrend and sideways market.

 

[radex78]

AUD/USD drops ahead of RBA rate announcement

The AUDUSD currency pair depreciated ahead of the RBA rate announcement, the price has fallen drawing a long-bodied bearish candle across the lower band with a wick at the bottom of the candle. The price has formed a high of 0.63003 low of 0.62188, and closed at 0.62474.

The Australian dollar's decline was the worst in four weeks against other currencies ahead of the RBA monetary policy meeting due to be released today. Investors expect the RBA to maintain the Official Cash Rate (OCR) at the current level of 4.1%. Therefore, investors will be paying close attention to the RBA's monetary policy guidance.

In the latest developments, President Donald Trump's tariff policy has brought economic fears and is expected to affect the Chinese economy. Trump's "Liberation Day" will announce reciprocal tariffs on April 2 could affect the Chinese economic outlook, given that the world's second-largest country has the largest trade surplus with the US. Here, Australia will be affected by the Chinese economy. This fear seems to have caused the Australian dollar to underperform.

The dollar index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the USD against six major currencies, is trying to recover after weakening. DXY rose to 104.392 from a low of 103.752.

Today, investors will focus on several fundamental data points from the US and Australia. In the US, investors will be waiting for manufacturing PMI data and job openings data. Final Manufacturing PMI is expected to be the same as the previous revision of 49.8, while ISM Manufacturing PMI is expected to fall to 49.5 from the previous 50.3. JOLTS Job Openings are expected to be 7.69 M from the previous 7.74 M.

AUDUSD D1

AUDUSD on the daily timeframe has successfully crossed the lower band line. The price is now near the lower band line. Here, the Bollinger band line draws a flat channel with narrow band spacing, indicating sideways market with low volatility.

MA 50 near the middle band line draws a flat channel, indicating sideways market. MA 200 far above the upper band draws a flat channel reflecting sideways market on a longer period with more on the decline.

VB High TDI indicator shows a value of 65, and VB Low shows a value of 39. The difference of 26 reflects the volatility value on the daily timeframe.

Market Base Line shows a value of 52 with a flat channel, meaning bullish weight is greater than bearish.

RSI Price Line shows a value of 43 with a descending channel crossing MBL and TS,L indicating a downtrend market.

Trade Signal Line shows a value of 45 with a descending channel crossing MBL from the upper side, indicating a downtrend market.

AUDUSD H4

AUDUSD on the H4 timeframe is now near the lower band line. The last two bullish candlesticks indicate the decline is fading somewhat. Bollinger bands draw a descending channel with wide band spacing, indicating bearish sentiment with high volatility.

MA 50 is slightly above the middle band, drawing a descending channel, indicating bearish sentiment. MA 200 above MA 50 draws a flat channel indicating sideways market on a longer period with more bearish potential.

VB High TDI indicator shows a value of 57, and VB Low shows a value of 34. The difference of 23 reflects the volatility value on the H4 timeframe.

Market Base Line shows a value of 45 with a descending channel, meaning the bearish weight is greater than the bullish.

RSI Price Line shows a value of 34 with an ascending channel indicating an uptrend market.

Trade Signal Line shows a value of 35 with a descending channel indicating a downtrend market.

 

[radex78]

USD/CAD is volatile amid Trump's tariff policy

Yesterday, the USDCAD pair drew a long-bodied bearish candle with a wick on the top of the candle. The price formed a high of 1.44148, a low of 1.42979, and a close of 1.42994. Previously, USDCAD drew a bullish candle with a body of almost the same length.

One possible cause is Trump's tariff policy which triggered a trade war, causing market fears of global economic uncertainty. On the other hand, demand for safe havens seems to be increasing, as seen from the price of gold, which continues to rise.

Trump also threatened to impose large tariffs on Russian oil, and the potential for bombing Iran further raises uncertainty in geopolitical risk.

Meanwhile, investors now seem convinced that slowing US economic growth amid uncertainty surrounding Trump's trade tariffs could force the Fed to continue its interest rate cut policy soon. However, according to the CME group's Fedwatch tool, the Fed is expected to maintain interest rates in the range of 4.25%-4.50% at the May 7 Fed meeting with a probability of 84.5%.

On the other hand, the Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the USD against six major currencies, is still in doubt, drawing a doji candle yesterday. DXY formed a high of 104.180 low of 104.019, closing at 104.199 with an open of 104.180. Visually, DXY is moving below the EMA 20, indicating a bearish sentiment.

The US JOLTS job openings data released yesterday showed lower than expected figures raising speculation of a weak US economy. The ISM Manufacturing PMI of 49.0 was lower than expected, 49.5 providing negative support to the USD.

Today, traders and investors will focus on the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, which is expected to rise to 118k from the previous 77k.

USDCAD D1

The USDCAD pair on the daily timeframe is now below the middle band line. Yesterday, the price crossed the middle band from the upper side. The Bollinger bands draw a flat channel with slightly narrowing band spacing, indicating a sideways market in moderate volatility.

The 50 MA near the middle band line draws a flat channel, indicating a sideways market. The 200 MA is far below the lower band, drawing an upward channel, indicating a bullish sentiment in the longer term.

The VB High TDI indicator is pointing at 61, and the VB Low is pointing at 37. The difference of 24 reflects the volatility value on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line is pointing at 49 with a flat channel, meaning the bearish weight is greater than the bullish.

The RSI Price Line is pointing at 47 with a downward channel crossing the MBL from the upper side, indicating a downtrend market.

The Trade Signal Line is pointing at 47 with a downward channel indicating a downtrend market.

USDCAD H4

The USDCAD pair on the H4 timeframe is now below the middle band line. The Bollinger bands are drawing a flat channel with expanding band spacing, indicating an upward volatility.

MA 50 is slightly below the middle band line drawing a flat channel indicating sideways market. MA 200 near MA 50 also draws a flat channel, indicating sideways market.

VB High TDI indicator shows a value of 68, and VB Low shows a value of 32. The difference of 36 reflects the volatility value in the H4 timeframe.

Market Base Line shows a value of 50 with a flat channel, meaning the price is in the neutral zone.

RSI Price Line shows a value of 41 with a descending channel crossing TSL and MBL from the upper side, indicating a downtrend market.

Trade Signal Line shows a value of 56 with a descending channel indicating a downtrend market.

 

[radex78]

USD/CNH surges after Trump tariff announcement

Financial markets have been volatile since Trump’s tariff announcement. White House report says studies have repeatedly shown tariffs are an effective tool for achieving economic and strategic objectives

The report claims that in 2024, studies found that Trump’s tariffs strengthened the US economy and led to reshoring in sectors like manufacturing and steel production.

A 2023 report by the US International Trade Commission found that Trump’s tariffs reduced Chinese imports and stimulated more US production of affected goods.

According to the Economic Policy Institute, President Trump's tariffs during his first term “have shown no apparent correlation with inflation” and have had only a temporary impact on overall prices.

The White House report stated that the media's prediction was wrong, unlike what has been feared so far about high inflation.

Despite the positive report from the White House, according to the CME group's Fedwatch tool, the Fed at its May 7 meeting is still expected to maintain interest rates at 4.25%-4.50% with a probability level of 91.1%.

The dollar index (DXY), which tracks the USD against six major currencies, dropped, drawing a bearish candle with a low of 103.366, a high of 104.314, and a close of 103.802.

Today, investors will focus on US economic data on Unemployment Claims and PMI, which may get a market response.

USDCNH D1

USDCNH on the daily timeframe surged up drawing a long-bodied bullish candle crossing the upper band line. Bollinger bands that were previously flat started to expand, indicating rising volatility.

MA 50 above the middle band line, drawing a flat channel indicating sideways market. MA 200 below MA 50 drawing a flat channel indicating sideways market on a longer period.

VB High TDI indicator shows a value of 59, and VB Low shows a value of 36. The difference of 23 reflects the volatility value on the daily timeframe.

Market Base Line shows a value of 47 with an upward channel, meaning the bearish weight is greater than bullish, with potential for reversal.

RSI Price Line shows a value of 64 with an upward channel crossing the TSL from the lower sid,e indicating an uptrend market.

Trade Signal Line shows a value of 57 with an upward channel indicating an uptrend market.

USDCNH H4

The USDCNH pair on the H4 timeframe moved up, crossing the upper band line, drawing a long-bodied bullish candle, indicating a strong rally. Bollinger bands expand, reflecting rising volatility.

MA 50 below the middle band draws a slight upward channel, indicating bullish sentiment. MA 200 near the lower band draws a flat channel, indicating sideways market.

VB High TDI indicator shows a value of 70, and VB Low shows a value of 42. The difference of 28 reflects the volatility value in the H4 timeframe.

Market Base Line shows a value of 56 with a flat channel, meaning the bullish weight is greater than the bearish.

RSI Price Line shows a value of 78 with an upward channel crossing the TSL from the bottom, indicating an uptrend market is in the overbought zone.

Trade Signal Line shows a value of 62 with an upward channel indicating an uptrend market.

 

[radex78]

Significant USD/CAD drop due to Trump tariffs

The Canadian dollar rallied sharply after the Trump administration’s “Liberation Day” tariff announcement. USDCAD hit a 3-month low at 1.40376 by drawing a long-bodied bearish candle and a fairly long wick at the bottom of the candle. Yesterday, the price made a high of 1.43189, a low of 1.40276, and a close of 1.40822.

The Trump administration’s tariff announcement received a surprising response from the market. The USD came under pressure, instead of acting as a safe-haven in the past. The dollar index (DXY), which tracks the USD against a basket of six major currencies, plunged with a wide gap to a low of 101.267 from a high of 103.379. The gap was quite deep, from the previous close of 103.691 to open at 103.148. The RSI shows that the DXY is currently in the oversold zone.

Unlike normal times, the USD often acts as a safe-haven currency with investors rushing to buy USD, but these are not normal times. The US Dollar is under pressure from the Trump administration's latest tariffs, which will be implemented in a gradual but rapid period.

The Trump administration will impose a 10% across-the-board tariff on all goods imported into the US starting April 5. The “reciprocal tariffs,” calculated as the ratio of US imports to exports on a per-country basis, will go into effect on April 9.

Canada has retaliated with its own potential tariffs if US trade falls outside its own USMCA limits, although Canada and Mexico have been granted additional tariff relief.

Fed officials, on the other hand, have been outspoken in warning that the tariffs could hurt expectations of a rate cut. The probability of the Fed keeping rates on hold at its May 7 meeting has fallen from 91% to 75.4%, according to the CME Group’s Fedwatch tool, given the impact of the Trump administration’s tariff opening report.

The forex market, however, is highly sensitive to recent news update. Investors will be looking ahead to the release of US and Canadian economic data due later today, including the NFP and Unemployment Rate, as well as any subtle hints from Fed Chair Powell's speech on the outlook for US interest rates and the US economy.

USDCAD D1

The USCAD pair on the daily timeframe is now moving slightly above the 200 MA which may be a dynamic support at the moment. The Bollinger bands are expanding, reflecting high market volatility.

The 50 MA is near the middle band line, drawing a flat channel indicating a sideways market. The 200 MA is below the low price, drawing a slightly rising channel, indicating a bullish sentiment in the longer term.

The VB High TDI indicator is pointing at 62, and the VB Low is pointing at 36. The difference of 26 reflects the volatility value on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line is pointing at 49 with a flat channel, meaning the bearish weight is greater than the bullish.

The RSI Price Line is pointing at 33 with a falling channel crossing the MBL and TSL from the upper side, indicating a downtrend market.

The Trade Signal Line is pointing at 43 with a falling channel indicating a downtrend market.

USDCAD H4

The USDCAD pair on the H4 timeframe is now near the lower band line. The Bollinger bands are expanding, reflecting a significantly increased market volatility.

MA 50 near the middle band line draws a descending channel, indicating bearish sentiment. MA 200 above MA 50 draws a flat channel, indicating a sideways market. There is a death cross signal in this timeframe.

VB High TDI indicator shows a value of 71, and VB low shows a value of 25. The difference of 46 reflects the volatility value in the H4 timeframe.

Market Base Line shows a value of 48 with a descending channel, meaning the bearish weight is greater than the bullish.

RSI Price Line shows a value of 27 with an ascending channel indicating the price is in the oversold zone, trying to get out of that level.

Trade Signal Line shows a value of 28, drawing a descending channel crossing the MBL from the upper sid,e indicating a downtrend market.

 

[radex78]

Trump Tariff Impact, WTI Prices Plunge to Low 60.21

WTI oil prices have declined consecutively for four days, with two days of long declines. On Friday, April 4, WTI oil prices plunged, drawing a long-bodied bearish candle with a wick at the bottom of the candle. WTI oil formed a high of 66.56, a low of 60.21, and a closing of 62.03. The decline in prices for four consecutive days even managed to cross the lower band line, indicating very high volatility.

The decline in oil prices aligns with the implementation of the reciprocal tariff policy announced by the Trump administration, which has sparked concerns about a global economic slowdown.

Although the Trump administration has prohibited affected countries from retaliating against the tariff policy, a trade war may be inevitable which in turn worsens the international trade environment.

A potential tariff war between the US and China will further worsen the outlook for oil demand. China has taken retaliatory steps against Trump's tariff policy by imposing a 34% tariff on American goods starting April 10 in retaliation after President Donald Trump imposed high tariffs on goods from China.

On the other hand, Trump considered his policies to have worked effectively and was proud of the US employment, which he said had soared. The US Department of Labor said there were 228,000 jobs last month, far more than the predicted 130,000. On the other hand, the unemployment rate rose slightly from 4.1% to 4.2%, with average earnings growing 0.3% in March to USD 36, or slightly higher than February.

Meanwhile, International Monetary Fund (IMF) Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva urged the US and its trading partners to work constructively to resolve trade tensions and reduce uncertainty. She warned that the higher import tariffs announced by President Trump were clearly a significant risk to the global outlook at a time of sluggish growth.

Another reason for the decline in oil prices was that OPEC+ surprisingly announced that they would increase production by 411 thousand barrels per day in May.

XTIUSD D1

WTI oil price on the daily timeframe is outside the Bollinger band, the sharp decline has broken the lower band line, which in turn makes the Bollinger band expand, which reflects high volatility.

MA 50 below the upper band line draws a descending channel, indicating bearish sentiment. MA 200 slightly above the upper band line draws a descending channel indicating bearish sentiment on a longer period.

VB High TDI indicator shows a value of 58, and VB Low shows a value of 29. The difference of 29 reflects the volatility value on the daily timeframe.

Market Base Line shows a value of 43 with the channel starting to decline, which means bearish weight is greater than bullish.

RSI Price Line shows a value of 33 with a sharp descending channel indicating a downtrend market.

Trade Signal Line shows a value of 50 with a descending channel indicating a downtrend market.

XTIUSD H4

WTI price on the H4 timeframe is now near the lower band line, with the last two bullish candles reflecting the market consolidation after a sharp decline. Bollinger bands are expanding with very wide band spacing, reflecting very high market volatility.

MA 50 is slightly above the middle band line, drawing a descending channel indicating bearish sentiment. MA 200 below MA 50 draws a flatter channel, reflecting a sideways market on a longer period.

VB High TDI indicator shows a value of 80, and VB Low shows a value of 15. The difference of 65 reflects the value of market volatility on the H4 timeframe.

Market Base Line shows a value of 48 with a descending channel, meaning bearish weight is greater than bullish.

RSI Price Line shows a value of 18 with a channel starting to rise, indicating a downtrend market, a price trying to reverse in the oversold zone.

Trade Signal Line shows a value of 19 with a descending channel indicating a downtrend market.

 

[radex78]

Gold price plunges amid trade war and global risk sentiment

Trump's reciprocal tariff policy has had a tremendous impact on the financial market. Many stocks have plunged after President Donald Trump implemented tariffs. Gold has depreciated for three consecutive days, drawing bearish candles. Yesterday, gold closed lower at 2956 near the 50 MA, which could be a support zone in this area. The price has formed a high of 3054, a low of 2956, and a close of 2982 on the FXOpen platform. The long body of the candlestick reflects the high volatility that has occurred.

The impact of President Donald Trump's reciprocal tariffs on Wednesday brought the US dollar and other safe-haven currencies after the USD hit a six-month low. The dollar index (DXY) is now at a high of 103.584, up from a low of 102.540, which had reached its lowest level at 101.267.

Last Friday, China retaliated by imposing 34% tariffs on all US imports, triggering turmoil in financial markets as most global equity indices posted losses. Trump’s reciprocal tariffs appear to have caused most markets to plunge, but on the other hand, US Treasury yields have risen, with the 10-year bond up almost fifteen basis points to 4.15% at the last update on April 7. The 20-year bond also rose by 0.15% and the 30-year by 0.17%.

Ahead of the week, the US economic docket will feature the release of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes, followed by the release of consumer and producer inflation data.

Tariff-related developments and trends across all assets will dominate the scene over the next few days. At the moment, the USD is still likely to see some uptick in demand, but that could change given the main fear is that tariffs will lead to higher inflation along with an economic recession. Markets are predicting a bleak future for the US, which will have implications for all other major economies.

XAUUSD D1

The gold price in the daily timeframe has successfully crossed the middle band line from the upper side, approaching MA 50 and the lower band. Bollinger band line still draws an upward channel but with the band starting to shrink, indicating a change in market sentiment pattern with reduced volatility.

MA 50 is slightly above the lower band, still draws an upward channel reflecting bullish sentiment. MA 200 is far below MA 50, also still draws an upward channel, indicating bullish sentiment in a longer period.

VB High TDI indicator shows a value of 79, and VB Low shows a value of 50. The difference of 29 reflects the volatility value in the daily timeframe.

Market Base Line shows a value of 64 with a flat channel, meaning bullish weight is greater than bearish.

RSI Price Line shows a value of 49 with a downward channel crossing TSL and MBL from the upper side, indicating a downtrend market.

Trade Signal Line shows a value of 67 with a downward channel indicating a downtrend market.

XAUUSD H4

The gold price on the H4 timeframe is now moving near the lower band line. Bollinger band is expanding widely reflecting high increasing volatility.

MA 50 is near the middle band line, price has crossed MA 50 from the upper side indicating a change in bullish to bearish sentiment. MA 200 is near the lower band and price draws a flat channel reflecting fading bullish sentiment.

VB High TDI indicator shows a value of 85, and VB Low shows a value of 22. The difference of 63 reflects that the volatility value on the H4 timeframe is very high.

Market Base Line shows a value of 54 with a descending ing channel, meaning bullish weight is greater than bearish, with market potential being in risk sentiment.

RSI Price Line shows a value of 27 with a descending channel crossing MBL from the upper side, indicating that the downtrend market is in an oversold zone.

Trade Signal Line shows a value of 29 with a descending channel crossing MBL from the upper side, indicating a downtrend market.