Daily Analysis Forex Mix

[radex78]

USD/CAD draws indecision candle ahead of overnight rate

The USD/CAD currency pair yesterday drew a Doji candle with long shadows on the top and bottom lines near the upper band line on the daily timeframe. The price formed a high of 1.45212, a low of 143792 open 1.44341, and closed at 1.44326. This temporarily halted the previous two-day bullish trend.

The US jobs data released yesterday, JOLTS Job Openings by the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed 7.74M higher than forecast 7.65M from the previously revised 7.51M. Hires held steady at 5.4M, and total layoffs were little changed at 5.3M. Although job openings were slightly changed but decreased by 728K over the year.

The increase in these data figures somewhat supported the strengthening of the USD. The trade war initiated by United States President Donald Trump against Canada is the reason for the turbulence in the USD currency, including the USDCAD pair lately. Trump imposed 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico on March 4. He also imposed additional duties on goods from China. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has threatened to take action in response to Trump's policies. Trudeau said retaliatory tariffs on C$30 billion worth of U.S. imports would go into effect immediately, with more to follow.

The trade war continues. Trump announced an increase in tariffs on steel and aluminum imports from Canada to 50 percent in response to the Ontario government imposing a 25 percent tariff on electricity exported to the US.

Today, investors will focus on the Bank of Canada, which is scheduled to announce its latest interest rate decision, which is expected to be cut by 25 basis points from 3.0% to 2.75%. In addition, investors will also pay attention to the BoC statement,t which may provide subtle clues on Canadian dollar currency policy.

In the US, today will also release CPI data which is an important inflation data used by the Fed to determine their monetary policy. Core CPI is expected to fall 0.3% from the previous 0.4%, monthly CPI is also expected to be 0.3% from the previous 0.5% and annual CPI is expected to be 2.9% from the previous 0.3%.

USDCAD D1

The USDCAD pair on the daily timeframe is now between the upper and middle band lines. The Bollinger Bands draw a flat channel with wide band spacing, reflecting range movement with fairly high market volatility.

The 50 MA is slightly above the middle band line, drawing a flat channel indicating a sideways market with more potential to the upside. The 200 MA is far below the lower band, drawing an upward change,l indicating a bullish sentiment in the long term.

The VB High TDI indicator is pointing at 64 and the VB Low is pointing at 35. The difference of 29 reflects the volatility value on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line is pointing at 50 with a flat channel, meaning the price is on a neutral path.

The RSI Price Line is pointing at 58 with a flat channel crossing the TSL from the bottom, indicating a fading uptrend market.

The Trade Signal Line is pointing at 54 with a downward channel, indicating a downtrend market.

USDCAD H4

The USD/CAD pair on the H4 timeframe is now between the upper and middle band lines. Here, Bollinger Bands draw an ascending channel with widening band spacing, indicating bullish sentiment with higher volatility.

MA 50 below price draws a slight ascending change,l indicating bullish sentiment. MA 200 below middle band line draws a flat channel indicating sideways market on long term.

VB High TDI indicator shows a value of 63, and VB Low shows a value of 37. The difference of 26 reflects the volatility value in the H4 timeframe.

Market Base Line shows a value of 50 with the flat channel, which means the price is on the neutral path.

RSI Price Line shows value 55 with descending channel crossing TSL from the upper side, indicating a downtrend market.

Trade Signal Line shows value 58 with descending channel indicating new signal downtrend market.

 

[radex78]

EUR/USD hovers amid moderate US inflation

After hitting a high of 1.09473 on Tuesday, the EURUSD pair drifted lower after the release of US inflation data. Yesterday, the EURUSD price formed a high of 1.09307 and a low of 1.08757, closing at 1.08874. The price drew a bearish candle with a higher low of the previous candle near the upper band line.

Yesterday's US inflation data release showed moderate growth. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the headline Consumer Price Index slowed sharply to 2.8% year-over-year from an estimated 2.9% from a previously revised 3.0%. The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.2 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in February, after rising 0.5 percent in January. The index for all goods except food and energy increased 0.2 percent in February, following a 0.4 percent increase in January.

A weaker-than-anticipated rise in US inflation is expected to boost market expectations that the Federal Reserve (The Fed) will cut interest rates at its May policy meeting. Meanwhile, according to the CME group's Fedwatch tool, the Fed's target interest rate is projected to be unchanged at its March 19 meeting with a 98.0% probability of leaving the rate at 4.25%-4.50%.

The dollar index (DXY) that tracks the US dollar against six major currencies has shown poor performance in recent weeks due to Trump's policies that are expected to increase inflation, which ultimately reduces household purchasing power. There are even concerns that the US recession will increase due to the impact of Trump's policies.

Today, investors will wait for the release of US PPI data and unemployment claims, which are also the basis for the Fed's considerations in taking their next monetary policy. This month's core PPI is expected to be the same as the previous revision of 0.3%, and the general PPI is 0.3% from the previous 0.4%. Meanwhile, Unemployment Claims are expected to increase by 226k from the previous 221k.

EURUSD D1

On the daily timeframe, EURUSD surged after breaking the upper band around 1.05288 and continued to rise to reach a high of 1.09473 on Tuesday. The price is near the upper band line, which is expanding, reflecting high volatility in the pair.

The 50 MA below the middle band line draws a curved channel to the upper side, indicating bullish sentiment. The 200 MA is slightly above the 50 MA and draws a flat channel, indicating a sideways market on a longer period.

The VB High TDI indicator shows a value of 73, and the VB Low TDI shows a value of 40. The difference of 23 reflects the volatility value on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line shows a value with an upward channel, meaning the bullish weight is greater than the bearish weight.

The RSI Price Line shows a value of 72 with a curved channel to the lower side, indicating a fading uptrend is in the overbought zone.

The Trade Signal Line shows a value of 72 with an upward channel, indicating an uptrend market.

EURUSD H4

On the H4 timeframe, the EUR/USD pair is near the middle band line. Bollinger Bands draw a slightly upward channel with a narrow band spacing, reflecting weak bullish sentiment on moderate volatility.

MA 50 below the lower band line draws an upward channel, indicating bullish sentiment. MA 200 below MA 50 draws an upward change, indicating bullish sentiment on a longer period.

VB High TDI indicator shows a value of 86, and VB Low shows a value of 57. The difference of 29 reflects the volatility value on the H4 timeframe.

Market Base Line shows a value of 71 with a downward channel, meaning the bullish weight is higher than the bearish with a potential for a decline.

The RSI Price Line shows a value of 57, with a downward channel crossing the TSL from the upper side, indicating a downtrend market.

Trade Signal Line shows a value of 62 with a downward channel indicating a downtrend market.

 

[radex78]

Silver breaks $33; precious metal gains positive traction amid trade war

The price of silver (XAGUSD) yesterday drew a long-bodied bullish candle with small shadows on top and bottom of the candle. Silver price formed a high of 33,959, a low of 32,928, and closed at 33,804. Bollinger Bands appear to be expanding, reflecting rising volatility.

Silver started the rhythm with bullish sentiment. since January, its price fluctuations were relatively in line with other precious metals such as Gold, Copper, Aluminum, and Tin. Silver has an inverse relationship with the US dollar index which is not too strong during the same period with the correlation of the real 10-year US Treasury yield.

The trade war initiated by Trump has brought about fears of a trade-related recession triggering a surge in investors to safe-haven assets such as Gold, Silver, and the Japanese Yen. Besides the trade war, the supply chain may also affect the price. According to the USGS (United States Geological Survey), Mexico leads global silver production, accounting for 24.8% of the world's total. China, with a production of around 3,400 metric tons, controls 13.2%, Peru 12%. The three countries collectively play a role in the global Silver supply chain. While Mexico and China are countries that are hit by Trump's tariff,s which could affect supply and add to the potential for price increases.

Meanwhile, the US PPI data released yesterday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that final demand prices rose 0.6 percent in January and 0.5 percent in December 2024. In February, a 0.3 percent increase in prices for final demand goods offset a 0.2 percent decline in the index for final demand services. Meanwhile, the Department of Labor reported that Unemployment Claims fell to 220k from 222k previously, lower than the forecast of 226.

The dollar index (DXY) has been in retreat since the beginning of this year, now at 103.833, slightly up from a low of 103.221 on March 11. The RSI has been pointing to oversold levels at 25 and is currently trying to break out of that level at 30. The FED is expected to leave interest rates unchanged at its March 19 meeting.

XAGUSD D1

The price of silver in the daily timeframe is on the upper band line. Bollinger bands are expanding, indicating increasing volatility after price successfully broke through at price level 33.

MA 50 above the lower band line draws an upward channel, indicating bullish sentiment. MA 200 below lower band draws a slightly flat channel, indicating weak bullish sentiment on a longer timeframe.

VB High TDI indicator shows a value of 70, and VB Low shows a value of 47. The difference of 23 reflects volatility value on the daily timeframe.

Market Base Line shows a value of 59 with an upward channel, which means bullish weight is greater than bearish.

RSI Price Line shows the value of 67 with an upward channel crossing MBL from the bottom side, indicating an uptrend market near the overbought level.

The Trade Signal Line shows a value of 61, with an upward channel crossing MBL from the bottom side, indicating an uptrend market.

XAGUSD H4

Silver's price on the H4 timeframe is on the upper band line. Here, Bollinger Bands are expanding, reflecting high market volatility.

MA 50 below the middle band line draws an upward channel, indicating bullish sentiment. MA 200 below MA 50 draws an upward channel, indicating bullish sentiment on a longer time frame.

VB High TDI indicator shows a value of 77, and VB Low shows a value of 45. The difference of 32 reflects the volatility value on the H4 timeframe.

Market Base Line shows a value of 61 with a flat channel, meaning the bullish weight is greater than the bearish weight.

RSI Price Line shows a value of 78 with an upward channel crossing the TSL from the bottom, indicating the uptrend is overbought.

Trade Signal Line shows a value of 70 drawing an upward channel indicating the uptrend market.

 

[radex78]

USD/CNH, will the rise reach 7.3000?

While the dollar index (DXY) is under pressure, the USD/CNH currency pair is moving near the lower band line. At the end of last week, the price drew a bearish candle with shadows on the top and bottom of the candle. The price formed a high of 7.2542, a low of 7.2307, and a close of 7.2357. During last week's trading, the pair tended to move in a range between the middle and lower band lines.

The dollar index (DXY), which tracks the USD against six major currencies, is now at 103.725 and is still struggling to recover. The dollar index began to come under pressure during President Trump's proposal for import tariffs on some countries, including China. The trade war echoed by Trump has caused market uncertainty, and some analysts are worried that it could trigger a US recession because the impact of the tariff policy is considered to cause inflation.

The Fed is expected to leave interest rates unchanged this month's meeting. According to the CME group's Fedwatch tool, the Fed's target rate probabilities for the March 19th Meeting are estimated at 99.0%, and the cut forecast is only 1%.

Today, China will release some economic data that could be a subtle clue to the country's economic conditions. Industrial Production year-to-year is forecast to fall 5.3% from the previous revision of 6.2%. Retail sales year-to-year are forecast to rise 3.8% from the previous revision of only 3.7%.

On the other hand, US core retail sales are forecast to rise 0.3% from the previous revision of 0.4%. General retail sales are forecast to rise 0.6% from the previous revision of -0.9%.

USDCNH D1

From the technical analysis perspective, the USDCNH pair in the daily timeframe is now priced is between the middle and lower band line. The Bollinger band draws a slight downward channel with wide band spacing, indicating weak bearish sentiment with moderate market volatility.

MA 50 below the upper band line draws a curved channel to the lower side, indicating a possible bullish to bearish trend transition. MA 200 below price near lower band line draws flat channel, indicating sideways market in longer timeframe.

VB High TDI indicator shows a value of 55, and VB Low shows a value of 37. The difference of 18 reflects volatility value in daily timeframe.

Market Base Line shows the value 46 with a flat channel, which means the bearish weight is greater than the bullish weight.

RSI Price Line shows value 42 with downward channel crossing TSL from the upper side indicates a downtrend market.

Trade Signal Line shows value 43 with flat channel indicates sideways market.

USDCNH H4

The USD/CNH price in the H4 timeframe is near the lower band line. Bollinger band here draws a flat channel with shrinking band space, indicating a sideways market with decreasing volatility.

MA 50 below upper band line draws decreasing channel indicating downtrend market. MA 200 is slightly above the upper band line and draws a slightly decreasing channel, indicating a weak bearish sentiment.

VB High TDI indicator shows a value of 55, and VB Low shows a value of 37. Difference 18 reflects volatility value on the H4 timeframe.

Market Base Line shows the value 46 with an increasing channel, which means that the bearish weight is greater than bullish in the middle of potential trend transition.

RSI Price Line shows value 43 with decreasing channel crossing MBL from the upper side, indicating a downtrend market.

Trade Signal Line shows value 46 with a decreasing channel indicating a downtrend market.

 

[radex78]

Gold hovers around $3000 ahead of Fed meeting

Last week gold price again hit a new record high at $3004, but trading finally closed lower at 2984. On Monday gold movement tried to rise and drew a bullish candle with a body length almost the same as the previous bearish candle. The price formed a high of 3001 low 2982 closing 3000 near the upper band line. The expanding Bollinger band indicates increased volatility.

The increasing demand for gold seems to be triggered by concerns about a US recession due to some disappointing data. Weak US Retail Sales for February, the NY Fed Empire State Manufacturing Index fell. The US Census yesterday reported Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services in February 2025 of $722.7 billion up +0.2% from the previous January 2025 of $721.3 Billion or -1.2%. The next release awaits April 16, 2025.

On the other hand, geopolitical risk is still a concern for investors which can boost gold prices. The US vowed to attack Yemen's Houthis until the group stops attacking ships in the Red Sea. Meanwhile, tensions could continue following the Houthis' statement that they will retaliate against the US attacks which could lead to a prolonged conflict.

The dollar index (DXY) seems to still be under pressure, after trying to rise at 104.091, yesterday it fell again to a low of 103.735. The dollar index is used to track the USD currency against six major currencies. The decline in the dollar index is in line with Trump's protectionist policy which began with an import tariff war on several countries that are considered detrimental to the US. However, on the other hand, this policy is considered to be able to trigger inflation.

The Fed at its meeting tomorrow, March 19, is expected to leave interest rates unchanged at 425-450 basis points. According to the CME group's Fedwatch tool, the Fed's possibilities of keeping interest rates unchanged are 98%. However, investors will still be waiting for the Fed's monetary policy decision Jerome Powell's press conference, and the release of the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP).

XAUUSD D1

Gold price on a daily timeframe is now near the upper band line. Bollinger bands appear to be expanding indicating volatility may increase. Bollinger bands are one of the indicators used to measure market volatility.

MA 50 near the lower band draws an upward channel indicating bullish sentiment. MA 200 below MA 50 draws an upward channel indicating bullish sentiment.

VB High TDI indicator shows a value of 80 and VB Low shows a value of 53. The difference of 27 reflects the volatility value on the daily timeframe.

Market Base Line shows a value of 66 with a flat channel, meaning bullish weight is greater than bearish.

RSI Price Line shows a value of 69 with a flat channel crossing MBL from the bottom indicates sideways market is in overbought level.

Trade Signal Line shows a value of 63 with an upward channel indicating an uptrend market.

XAUUSD H4

Gold price in the H4 timeframe is between the upper and middle band line. The candlesticks that are lined up reflect the price moving in a range in the past few hours. Bollinger band draws an upward channel with wide band spacing indicating bullish sentiment with high volatility.

MA 50 near the lower band line draws an upward channel indicating bullish sentiment. MA 200 below MA 50 draws an upward channel indicating bullish sentiment in the past 200 days.

VB High TDI indicator shows a value of 83 and VB Low shows a value of 43. The difference of 40 reflects the volatility value in the H4 timeframe.

Market Base Line shows a value of 63 with an upward channel, meaning bullish weight is greater than bearish.

RSI Price Line shows a value of 70 with a flat channel crossing TSL from the top indicating a sideways market trying to leave the overbought level.

Trade Signal Line shows a value of 69 with a flat channel indicating a sideways market.

 

[radex78]

Ahead of BOJ Policy Rate USD/JPY pair still looking for direction

Yesterday pair of USDJPY drew a hammer candle with a bearish candle ending with a long wick on top candle moved near the middle band line. The price formed a high of 149.935 low of 149.097 and a closing of 149.256. The contracting Bollinger band reflects market volatility turning lower.

Amidst the increasing geopolitical risk tensions between Israel and Hamas after Israel attacked Gaza and killed more than 200 people, it could worsen the security situation. On the other hand, the US attacking Houthi is also a geopolitical risk point that is getting hotter. Houthi has vowed to retaliate against the US attack by targeting US ships in the Red Sea.

The performance of the dollar index (DXY) which tracks the USD against six major currencies, is currently still under pressure. DXY fell to 103.197 after trying to recover at 104.091 on March 14. The weakening performance of the dollar index may have been triggered by concerns about a US recession due to Trump's policies that could drive inflation.

Next, investors will focus on the BOJ and FED decisions. Today, the Bank of Japan will announce its interest rate policy which is expected to remain the same as the previous revision of 0.50%. Meanwhile, the Fed is also expected to leave interest rates unchanged at its meeting tomorrow.

Despite the weakening performance of the USD, investors seem to favor the US dollar over the Japanese Yen, which is seen in the USDJPY pair in bullish sentiment since March 11 after the pair hit a low of 146.542 and the pair tried to recover at 149.935.

USDJPY D1

USDJPY pair on a daily timeframe is now slightly above the middle band line. The price has crossed the middle band line from the lower side which allows it to target the upper band line around 150.400. Bollinger bands draw a contracting descending channel reflecting the decreasing volatility on the daily timeframe.

MA 50 above the upper band line draws a descending channel indicating a more bearish sentiment. MA 200 below MA 50 draws a flat channel indicating a sideways market on a longer timeframe.

VB High TDI indicator shows a value of 47 and VB Low shows a value of 29. The difference of 18 reflects the volatility value on the daily timeframe.

Market Base Line shows a value of 38 with a flat channel, which means the bearish weight is greater than the bullish.

RSI Price Line shows a value of 46 with an ascending channel crossing MBL from the lower side indicating an uptrend market.

Trade Signal Line shows a value of 41 with an ascending channel crossing MBL from the lower side indicating an uptrend market.

USDJPY H4

The USDJPY pair on the H4 timeframe is now above the middle band line. The Bollinger bands draw an upward channel with the band spacing starting to shrink indicating bullish sentiment with decreasing volatility.

The 50 MA below the middle band line draws a flat channel indicating a sideways market with more bullish. The 200 MA above the upper band line draws a downward channel indicating bearish sentiment on a longer time frame.

The VB High TDI indicator shows a value of 65 and the VB Low shows a value of 46. The difference of 19 reflects the volatility value on the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base Line shows a value of 55 with an upward channel, meaning the bullish weight is greater than the bearish.

The RSI Price Line shows a value of 57. A downward channel is starting to flatten, crossing the TSL from the upper side, indicating a fading downtrend.

The Trade Signal Line shows a value of 62 with a flat channel indicating a sideways market.

 

[radex78]

GBP/USD hovers around 1.30000 ahead of the BoE rate and UK jobs data

The GBPUSD currency pair yesterday drew a small bullish candle hanging below the upper band line—it was like a hanging man candle. The price formed a high of 1.30111, a low of 1.29550, and a close of 1.30024. The price movement seemed to pause when it reached 1.30000 and has been happening since Tuesday.

The latest data release from the Fed maintained interest rates at 4.50% as previously expected, this gave a little boost to the dollar index (DXY) to gain purchasing power and try to rise from the lowest area in several months. For a moment, the DXY rose to a high of 103.906 from a low of 103.253 and closed at 103.460. Three indicators EMA 20, 100, and 200 still show DXY more bearish sentiment even though RSI is already at the oversold level at 30.

Today there are interesting economic events from the UK related to interest rates and employment data. The Bank of England is expected to leave interest rates still at 4.50% after a decrease in February from the previous 4.75%. Claimant Count Change which is used to measure the change in the number of people claiming unemployment benefits during the previous month, is expected to fall 7.9k from the previous revision of 22.0k.

The Average Earnings Index 3m/y is expected to be 5.8%, up from 6.0%, and the Unemployment Rate is expected to remain at the previous revision of 4.4%.

GBPUSD D1

From the technical view, the GBPUSD pair's daily timeframe price is now below the upper band line, compared to its high two days ago. Bollinger bands draw an upward channel with wide band spacing, reflecting bullish sentiment and high volatility.

MA 50 slightly above the lower band line draws an upward channel indicates bullish sentiment. MA 200 near the middle band line draws a flat channel indicating a sideways market in the longer timeframe.

VB High TDI indicator shows a value of 75 and VB Low shows a value of 49. The difference of 26 reflects the volatility value in the daily timeframe.

Market Base Line shows a value of 62 with an upward channel, which means the bullish weight is greater than the bearish.

RSI Price Line shows a value of 72 with a flat channel indicating the sideways market is in overbought level.

Trade Signal Line shows a value of 71 with a flat channel indicating a sideways market.

GBPUSD H4

GBPUSD pair on the H4 timeframe is now near the upper band line. Bollinger bands draw a slight upward channel with narrow band spacing reflecting a weak uptrend with low volatility.

MA 50 below price near the lower band line draws a flat channel indicating a sideways market with more potential for bullish sentiment. MA 200 far below the lower band draws an upward channel indicating bullish sentiment on a longer timeframe.

VB High TDI indicator shows a value of 67 and VB Low shows a value of 49. The difference of 18 reflects the volatility value on the H4 timeframe.

Market Base Line shows a value of 58 with a flat channel, which means the bullish weight is greater than the bearish.

RSI Price Line shows value 61 with an upward channel crossing TSL and MBL from the bottom indicating an uptrend market.

Trade Signal Line shows value 56 with a flat channel indicating a sideways market.

 

[radex78]

USD/CAD jumped to 1.44015 but closed at 1.43240 as the Fed kept rates unchanged.

Yesterday's Fed meeting finally left interest rates unchanged in the range of 4.25%-4.50%. The Canadian dollar weakened against the US dollar, jumping from a low of 1.43127 to a high of 1.43489. The USD strengthened after the Fed said they were in no hurry to cut interest rates. The dollar index (DXY) strengthened to 104.130, supported by the Fed's decision to leave rates unchanged. For more than a week, the dollar index has moved sideways from a low of 103.197 to a high of 104.130, allowing the currency to be relatively stable against six other major currencies.

Jerome Powell said that Donald Trump's tariff policy tends to make growth go down and inflation go up. This also led Fed officials to revise their core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) price index projection for this year higher to 2.8%, up from the 2.5% projected at the December meeting. They also revised GDP growth lower to 1.7% from the previous projection of 2.1%. Trump’s tariffs that triggered the trade war have caused many investors to be wary of economic uncertainty and to take a wait-and-see approach.

Meanwhile, the BoC is expected to cut rates again at its April meeting by 25 basis points to 2.50%. However, this forecast will still depend on March’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) data.

Meanwhile, Canada will release economic data today on core retail sales which are expected to fall -0.1% from the previous 2.7%. And general retail sales are expected to fall -0.4% from the previous 2.5%.

USDCAD D1

USDCAD pair on daily timeframe from a technical point of view is now slightly below the middle band line allowing consolidation near 1.43000 to 1.45000 zone. Bollinger bands draw flat channels with shrinking band spacing reflecting a sideways market with lower volatility.

MA 50 slightly above the middle band line draws an upward channel indicating bullish sentiment with a potential trend reversal. MA 200 far below the lower band draws an upward channel indicating bullish sentiment in the long term.

VB High TDI indicator shows a value of 61 and VB Low shows a value of 35. The difference of 26 reflects the volatility value on the daily timeframe.

Market Base Line shows a value of 48 with a flat channel, which means the bearish weight is greater than the bullish.

RSI Price Line shows a value of 48 with an upward channel indicating more upward.

Trade Signal Line shows a value of 49 with a downward channel indicating a downtrend market.

USDCAD H4

USDCAD pair on the H4 timeframe is near the middle band line. Bollinger band draws a flat channel with shrinking band spacing indicating a sideways market with lower volatility.

MA 50 near the upper band line draws a flat channel indicating a sideways market with more bearish potential. MA 200 near the middle band line draws a flat channel indicating a sideways market for a longer period.

VB High TDI indicator shows a value of 58 and VB Low shows a value of 29. The difference of 29 reflects the volatility value on the H4 timeframe.

Market Base Line shows value 44 with the flat channel, which means the bearish weight is greater than the bullish.

RSI Price Line shows a value of 46 with a descending channel crossing TSL from the upper side indicating a downtrend market.

Trade Signal Line shows a value of 50 with a flat channel indicating a sideways market.

 

[radex78]

GBP/USD slightly gapped at the opening of the market has been restored

The GBPUSD pair fell at the end of the week as the USD strengthened. Two bearish candles reflect the weakening of the GBP against the USD. The price formed a high of 1.29849, a low of 1.28878, a close of 1.29109. At the opening of the market on Monday, a gap was seen on a low timeframe such as M15 where the open price was somewhat below the previous candle's close, but the gap has been completely restored.

The dollar index (DXY) strengthened for three consecutive days, drawing bullish candles, and reached 104.136 at the end of last week.

The Fed at its meeting last week left interest rates unchanged in the range of 4.25%-4.50% because policymakers were concerned that US President Donald Trump's policies towards his partners could increase inflation. On the other hand, the BoE also kept interest rates unchanged because there was uncertainty about the future. The BoE left interest rates unchanged at 4.50%. This decision was taken after the MPC voted 8-1 to maintain the Bank Rate at 4.5%. One member preferred to lower the Bank Rate by 0.25 percentage points, to 4.25%.

Global trade policy uncertainty has increased, triggered by the United States making tariff policies that have received responses from affected countries, and geopolitical risks that still threaten to increase the risk of volatility in financial markets. Germany as one of the developed countries announced that it will reform its fiscal rules.

Today investors will focus on PMI economic data in Europe, the UK, and the US which are expected to trigger market movements.

GBPUSD D1

GBPUSD pair on daily timeframe now price is slightly above middle band line. Bollinger band draws a rising channel with wide band spacing reflecting bullish sentiment with high volatility.

MA 50 near the lower band line draws a rising channel indicating bullish sentiment. MA 200 below the middle band line draws a flat channel, indicating a sideways market for a longer period.

VB High TDI indicator shows a value of 75 and VB Low shows a value of 50. Difference 25 reflects the volatility value on the daily timeframe.

Market Base Line shows a value of 62 with the rising channel, which means bullish weight is greater than bearish.

RSI Price Line shows value 59 with a falling channel crossing TSL and MBL from the upper side indicating a downtrend market.

Trade Signal Line shows value 67 with a falling channel indicating a downtrend market.

GBPUSD H4

GBPUSD pair on H4 timeframe is near the lower band line. Bollinger band here draws a falling channel with widening band spacing indicating bearish sentiment with rising volatility.

MA 50 is below the middle band line drawing a flat channel indicating trend transition. MA 200 is far below the lower band drawing an upward channel indicating bullish sentiment in the longer period.

VB High TDI indicator shows a value of 68 and VB Low shows a value of 37. The difference of 31 reflects the volatility value in the H4 timeframe.

Market Base Line shows a value of 53 with a downward channel, meaning the bullish weight is greater than the bearish.

RSI Price Line shows a value of 34 with a downward channel indicating a downtrend market.

Trade Signal Line shows a value of 29 with a downward channel indicating a downtrend market.

 

[radex78]

Gold prices still hold above $3000

Although yesterday the gold price drew a bearish candle, the gold price still holds above the $3000 price level. Yesterday the price drew a small-bodied bearish candle with movement within the previous candle price range. The price has formed a high of 3033, a low of 3002, closing of 3011.

The USD seems to still maintain its short-term broad strength, causing this precious metal to trade slightly above the lowest level in the previously mentioned daily trading. The dollar index (DXY) drew a bullish candle extending its previous increase and has reached a high of 104,444. The RSI is at level 42, increasingly leaving the oversold zone level.

Expectations of Trump's more targeted tariffs than previously threatened provide support for the strengthening of the dollar index. Most recently Trump will announce tariffs on cars, aluminum, and pharmaceuticals in the near future.

Meanwhile, the US PMI data for March was released yesterday, the manufacturing PMI was 49.8, lower than expected at 51.9 from the previous revision of 52.7. Meanwhile, the Service PMI rose to 54.3, higher than the expected 51.2 and the previous revision of 51.0.

There are no relevant economic data releases today, but the US will release the Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index (PCE) figure on Friday. The PCE is a key indicator that the Fed prefers when making interest rate decisions.

XAUUSD D1

Gold price in daily timeframe is still moving in the range between middle and upper band line. On Monday, the gold price is under downward pressure since gold reached a new all-time high of 3057. Bollinger's band draws an upward channel indicating bullish sentiment with high volatility.

MA 50 above the lower band line draws an upward channel indicating bullish sentiment. MA 200 far below MA 40 draws an upward channel indicating bullish sentiment.

VB High TDI indicator shows a value of 80 and VB Low shows a value of 53. The difference of 27 reflects the volatility value in the daily timeframe.

Market Base Line shows a value of 66 with a flat channel, which means the bullish weight is greater than the bearish.

RSI Price Line shows value 64 with a downward channel crossing TSL and MBL from the upper side indicating a downtrend market.

Trade Signal Line shows value 69 with a flat channel indicating a sideways market.

XAUUSD H4

Gold price in the H4 timeframe is near the lower band line and MA 50. The decline is fading as seen from two small bullish candles that appear which allow consolidation to enter. Bollinger band draws a flat channel with narrow band spacing indicating a sideways market with low volatility.

MA 50 is slightly above the lower band line just below the price drawing an upward channel that indicates bullish sentiment. MA 200 is far below MA 50 drawing an upward channel indicating bullish sentiment on a longer period.

VB High TDI indicator shows a value of 82 and VB Low shows a value of 43. The difference of 39 reflects the volatility value on the H4 timeframe.

Market Base Line shows a value of 62 with a downward channel, meaning bullish weight is greater than bearish.

RSI Price Line shows a value of 44 with a flat channel indicating a sideways market.

Trade Signal Line shows a value of 47 with a flat channel indicating a sideways market.