NewBie's Trading Journal

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EUR/USD Daily Outlook

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Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral as consolidation from 1.1059 continues. On the downside, below 1.0707 will turn bias to the downside for 1.0461/0517 support zone. Meanwhile, above 1.1059 will bring another rise. Overall, we're treating price actions from 1.0461 low as a corrective pattern. Hence, in case of further rebound, we'd expect strong resistance around 38.2% retracement of 1.3993 to 1.0461 at 1.1810 to limit upside and bring down trend resumption eventually.

In the bigger picture, overall price actions from 1.6039 long term top is viewed as a corrective pattern with fall from 1.3993 as the third leg. Price actions from 1.0461 are viewed as correction to fall from 1.3993. Break of 1.0461 will extend the decline from 1.3993. On the upside, break of 1.2042 support turned resistance is needed to be the first sign of trend reversal. Otherwise, we'll stay bearish and expect a new low below 1.0461 at a later stage.

 

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USD/CHF Daily Outlook

Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains mildly on the upside for 1.0327 resistance. However, the structure of the rise from 0.9784 is having a corrective look. Thus, we'd expect strong resistance below 1.0327 to bring near term reversal. On the downside, below 1.0110 minor support will turn bias neutral first. Meanwhile, break of 0.9989 support will indicate completion of such rebound and turn bias to the downside for a test on 0.9784 low.

In the bigger picture, the failure to sustain above 1.0239 key resistance and sharp fall from 1.0327 is raising the chance of medium term reversal. Sustained break of 0.9842 resistance turn support will now turn medium term outlook bearish for 0.9475 support first. Break would send USD/CHF to 0.9072 support and below. Overall, the price actions since 0.7065 long term bottom (2011 low) are corrective in nature and we'll probably see more range trading ahead.

 

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Trade Idea: USD/JPY - Buy at 120.00

USD/JPY - 121.20


Most recent candlesticks pattern : N/A

Trend : Near term up


Tenkan-Sen level : 121.30

Kijun-Sen level : 121.11

Ichimoku cloud top : 119.95

Ichimoku cloud bottom : 119.73


Original strategy :

Buy at 117.50, Target: 118.80, Stop: 117.15

Position : -

Target : -

Stop : -


New strategy :

Buy at 120.00, Target: 121.50, Stop: 119.65

 

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Daily analysis GBP/USD: for February 4, 2016

The bullish effort on the cable has really paid off. The price is above the EMA 11, which is, in its turn, above the EMA 56. The RSI period 14 is above the level of 50 meaning that the price is expected to go further northwards. The price has already moved upwards by 500 pips (since the low of Friday, January 29, 2016). There could be some pullbacks along the way, but the bullish journey is expected to continue.

 

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Daily analysis USD/JPY for February 4, 2016

This currency trading instrument has plunged by 420 pips this week ending the bullish signal we witnessed last Friday. In fact, the price is now below the EMA 56, as the RSI period 14 is below the level of 50. Since the price has gone below the supply levels of 119.50, 119.00, and 118.50, it is rational to assume that the demand levels of 117.00 and 116.50 would be tested soon.

 

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Daily analysis EUR/JPY for February 4, 2016

In spite of the fact that JPY is currently flexing some muscles, this cross has not fallen sharply. One reason behind this is the strength in the euro itself, which might force the cross to go up in case the bullishness holds out. That is one thing that could act as a catalyst for this cross to become bullish, for the uptrend is not completely over in spite of the ongoing threat against it.