The EUR/USD pair went down slightly on Monday with nothing significant. This week would see what shall happen to the market, but the bearish bias would not be over unless the price goes above the resistance line at 1.1000, which is a formidable line
On Monday, this pair showed some determination to continue going upwards. It is possible that the price would test the resistance level at 1.0100, which bulls could not breach to the upside last week. Another attempt to breach it to the upside might be witnessed this week, though that would require a significant buying pressure.
The GBP/USD pair is still in a bearish mode, and the price might go further southwards. Any rallies in the market should be seen as opportunities to sell short, because the bearish trend is likely to continue. Therefore, the accumulation territories 1.4500 and 1.4450 could be attained.
This currency trading instrument, which moved southwards last week, still shows the tendency to move further south this week. The price made several attempts to break the demand level at 117.00 to the downside, but with no success. The price still shows the determination to go further south, which may eventually enable it to go below the demand level at 117.50.
This cross moved lower on Monday in conjunction with the extant bearish outlook. The Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market is valid, and the price could test the demand zone at 127.00. The price could even breach that demand zone to the downside.
Risk sentiment has improved and this has combined with a natural pullback from a support level to finally produce a meaningful rise in this pair. Note that we have still yet to break up past any key resistance levels, but if we reach 118.36 that is going to be a severe test. The established downwards trend suggests that prices at 118.36 and above are going to be good areas at which to seek a short trade entry.
Below, the weekly open at 116.66 is likely to be supportive if we get back down there and hit it.
It has been a fairly quiet 24 hours with no important changes taking place to affect the technical picture shown in the H4 chart below.
There are still great support levels below although we are some way away from the nearest one at 0.9928. I think it would be a great area to enter a long trade as although this pair has lost a lot of momentum recently, we are still in a long-term upwards trend.
The price is currently showing a reluctance to break up past resistance which seems to kick in at around the 1.0080 – 1.0120 area. We may see a fall now back down to at least 1.0000.
Finally we have a failure of an upwards swing at a key resistance point, which happened last night as the price just was not able to get any higher than 1.4584, and it has been falling quite sharply from that area over the Asian session and in early London trading today.
There is a still a very strong upwards trend in this pair so the chances are that it is just a question of how far the pullback will go before we get another upwards swing. The round number at 1.4400 saw a breakout and therefore is a good candidate. The level at 1.4313 is also significant as it was a previous key swing high.
Intraday bias in EUR/JPY remains on the upside for the moment. Rebound from 126.16 should target 134.58 resistance first. Sustained break there would pave the back back to 141.04 resistance again. Below 130.22 minor support will turn bias neutral bring consolidations first.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 149.76 medium term top is viewed as developing into a corrective pattern. At this point, as long as 126.09 support holds, we'd expect a sideway pattern between 126.09 and 149.76 in medium term, to be followed by upside breakout at a later stage. However, decisive break of 126.09 will raise some question over this outlook and would at least bring deeper fall to 61.8% retracement of 94.11 to 149.76 at 115.36.
Intraday bias in EUR/GBP remains neutral for the moment as consolidation from 0.7754 continues. Deeper pull back cannot be ruled out. But downside should be contained well above 0.7311 and bring rebound. Overall, rise from 0.6981 is expected to resume later. Above 0.7754 will target next long term fibonacci level at 0.8029.
In the bigger picture, current development suggests that the down trend form 0.9799 (2008 high) has completed at 0.6935, inside key support zone of 0.6535/7250. Further rise would be seen back to 38.2% retracement of 0.9799 to 0.6935 at 0.8029. We'd look at the structure of the rise and reactions to 0.8029 to determine whether it's developing into a corrective or an impulsive move.
