Sambungan :-
That's my opinion from the beginning. If you are the only short in the market, they don't want to stop you. They know that more people are long the market. They will go after the longs in this case and you are profiting.
Consider this example.
A broker has some clients. 10 of them did the following at some point of time. 7 clients went long at the EUR/USD. For simplicity, I will assume that the first one went long the EUR/USD at 1.2000/1.2003, the second at 1.2001/1.2004 and so on, that the seventh went long at 1.2006/1.2009. Now the other 3 clients went short. The first at 1.2006/1.2009, the second, 1.2005/1.2008 and the third one at 1.2004/1.2007. Now this means that the pair traded between 1.2000/1.2003 and 1.2006/1.2009 so that all 10 clients got filled at such prices.
Each client has a stop loss of 20 pips and everyone traded 1 full lot ($100k). Now let's wear the broker hat and see how can we profit from such a situation.
If the price went up first and then dropped back, i.e if the longs opened their positions first and led the prices higher, then the shorts got in, then the current price should be 1.2005/1.2008, which is the last short filled.
As a broker, I can see that the stops are like that,
1.1983, 1.1984, 1.1985, 1.1986, 1.1987, 1.1988, 1.1989 (Long Stops)
1.2026, 1.2025, 1.2024 (Short Stops)
Now we are standing at 1.2005/1.2008. The longs are putting sell orders, and the shorts are putting buy orders. The total amount for the 10 clients is $1M. Now assuming that I am a market maker, assumed that I have larger amounts to money to move than these traders, I get into the trade myself. So I short the market at a right moment where there are not too much buy limit orders on my system, i.e. when the road is clear and I am sure that shorting will cause a spike down and the market will move down. When I know that only a small limit buy order of $100k is on my system, I start the move, short the market by $100k and thus I am in a trade of $100k dollars shorting the EUR/USD. This price spike down cause the the EUR/USD to drop on everyones' screen to 1.1989/1.1992. Of course I don't want this to look like a hard rock drop, so I am prepared with bid and ask orders for myself ranging all the way down. When I short at 1.2004/1.2007 for example, I am ready with a bid and ask orders, one is at 1.2000 for the bid and the other is at 1.2003. I am buying and selling, I am the market maker, these are my limit orders now. Quickly enough and through my advanced software, I remove the orders and lower the prices once again to 1.1998/1.2001, and so on till I go down to the required price. There is no action in the market actually, no one is buying and no one is selling and I am dropping the prices quickly enough to minimize the number of traders who will enter at the market. I know that the road is clear, so I won't have to fill the orders of anyone out there.
Now bear in mind that I brought prices to this level by shorting when the road was clear, which means that I got the prices down when there was only 1 client only between the current price and the 1.1989/1.1992, so actually I moved the market to the first stop by only shorting $100k. And because there was no buyers in the range we are talking about from 1.2005 to 1.1989/1.1992, I only sold $100k short as a broker at say 1.2004/1.2007. Now the first stop to sell $100k is at 1.1989/1.1992, who will buy this?? It's me of course, the broker. I will buy the $100k from the first guy at 1.1989, I covered my $100k short position by buying back at 1.1989, I made a profit of 15 pips, and then when the trade is filled, the price will drop to 1.1988/1.1991, the next best price. I buy this too, the price drops back to 1.1987/1.1990, the next best price, I buy this too, I then buy another $100k at the next price of 1.1986/1.1989. I am now having $300k in long EUR/USD positions bought respectively at 1.1988, 1.1987 and 1.1986. Note that everytime I buy the lots from the longs at these prices, I am the other side of the market as well, offering to sell every $100k I have at the ask price, so actually when I bought at 1.1988, the price went down to 1.1987 and I quickly transfered the $100k to the ask side. I am selling back what I just bought for a 2 pips profit everytime we go down a pip. They are put for auction at 1.1990, and so on. When I buy the last lot at 1.1986, I am now having 3 lots offered for sale at 1.1989, 1.1990 and 1.1991.
Now I am long $300k, at 1.1988, 1.1987, 1.1986, etc. Since I am the market maker, I am going to rapidly increase the bid price of the EUR/USD and offer to buy at higher prices, thus bringing the prices to 1.1995/1.1998. I am now offering to buy at 1.1995, and offering to sell at 1.1998. I am now making money on the $300k I just bought, waiting for them to find buyers at 1.1998. I can even increase my offering price as long as no limit orders are there in the way, so I bring the prices back to 1.2001/1.2004. I am now offering to sell the $300k at 1.2004. I am making real good money.
I know that it sound too complicated to be done, but believe me, with computer software, it is doable. This is just a simple example. When hundreds of stop orders are there and the road to the required stops is too crowded with limit orders, it would be figured out from terms of probability and overall profit. Using software decisions for all types of situations is possible. I can see everything. Limit orders, stop orders, open trades, who is long, who is short, everything is in my system, and I have the money and the ability to twist the whole thing to my favour if everything is just in place and in the right order, so why don't I do it? I even know how many traders are online now on the platform willing to enter a trade live and I can even know how many of those online traders who are watching are actually watching the EUR/USD chart!!! Doesn't this give me an edge over everyone if I am a trader??? Sure it does. So why do I accept to just do my job and be a market maker if I can make profits as a trader???
What I really don't know is market orders and the mental stops. Those 2 are the real threats to my strategy, but nothing is risk free.
Thanks,
Nader