Market Fundamental Analysis by RoboForex

[Vlad RF]

USDJPY halts growth as the market pauses for further developments

USDJPY growth halted on Friday as the market paused and awaits further developments. More details and insights are available in our USDJPY analysis and forecast for today, 4 October 2024.

USDJPY forecast: key trading points

• The USDJPY pair is consolidating
• The market paused following a 3% decline in the yen over the past week
• USDJPY forecast for 4 October 2024: 145.22 and 143.2

Fundamental analysis

On Friday, the USDJPY rate reached a high of 146.27 before stabilising. The Japanese yen has slightly recovered after its sharp decline of over 3% against the US dollar, driven by a shift in the Bank of Japan’s monetary policy stance, which softened its outlook on interest rates.

Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba reiterated that current economic conditions do not justify a rate hike. Meanwhile, the yen faced additional pressure from the strong appreciation of the US dollar. Recent US economic data signals that the Federal Reserve may not reduce interest rates as aggressively as initially expected.

The overall USDJPY forecast remains neutral as the market assesses these fundamental factors.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

USDJPY: the strong US labour market supports growth in the pair

The USDJPY rate is approaching the 149.35 resistance level amid uncertainty regarding the BoJ policy. Discover more in our analysis for 7 October 2024.

USDJPY forecast: key trading points

• The number of US jobs increased by 254,000 in September, marking the highest gain over the past six months
• The likelihood of a 50-basis-point Federal Reserve interest rate cut decreased to 4.3%
• Japan’s Leading Economic Index fell to its lowest level since October 2020
• USDJPY forecast for 7 October 2024: 145.95, 144.30, and 142.68

Fundamental analysis

The USDJPY rate has decreased significantly since last week’s surge. The yen came under pressure due to statements from Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba and Economy Minister Ryosei Akazawa, who called for caution regarding further BoJ interest rate hikes, considering the current economic conditions.

The additional weakening of the yen is caused by the strong US employment report released on Friday. The US economy added 254,000 jobs in September, showing the most substantial growth over the past six months and reducing market expectations of a potential significant interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve. The likelihood of a 50-basis-point cut in November decreased to 4.3%, while the odds of a softer 25-basis-point reduction increased to 95.7%. Such expectations in today’s USDJPY forecast may prompt buyers to break above the 149.35 resistance level.

Japan’s Leading Economic Index, which evaluates the prospects for the months ahead, decreased to 106.7 points in August 2024 from 109.3 in July, reaching its lowest level since October 2020. Japan’s Coincident Index, which includes data such as production output, employment, and retail sales, dropped to 113.5 in August from 117.2 a month earlier, marking the lowest reading since February.

Traders are currently focusing on the upcoming wage data in Japan, which may impact inflationary expectations and the BoJ’s monetary policy.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

USDJPY is in a consolidation phase: the market requires new signals

The USDJPY pair has been holding in a range for the third day. Investors are cautious. Find out more in our analysis for 9 October 2024.

USDJPY forecast: key trading points

• The USDJPY pair has started to consolidate
• Investors are conserving strength in anticipation of the latest Federal Reserve meeting minutes
• USDJPY forecast for 9 October 2024: 146.36, 144.20, and 143.60

Fundamental analysis

The USDJPY rate is stable, hovering around 148.34 on Wednesday.

Although interesting signals emerge, Japan’s domestic statistics do not affect the JPY trajectory. The Tankan sentiment index rose to 7 points in October, above the forecasted 6, which is a positive signal for Japan’s economy.

Investors are awaiting the release of the previous US Federal Reserve meeting minutes today to gain insights into the regulator’s true intentions regarding the future of interest rates. Current expectations now suggest two rate cuts before the end of the year, of 25 basis points each. The minutes will reveal whether this perspective will persist or be revised to a more aggressive stance.

The USDJPY forecast appears neutral.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

EURUSD appears weak: US inflation data ahead

The EURUSD pair declined markedly. The market believes in the US dollar’s “exceptionalism”. Discover more in our analysis for 10 October 2024.

EURUSD forecast: key trading points

• The EURUSD pair fell to a low seen on 13 August
• The market increasingly favours the US dollar
• EURUSD forecast for 10 October 2024: 1.0905

Fundamental analysis

The EURUSD rate is consolidating around 1.0943 on Thursday.

This is the euro’s lowest level since 13 August. As they say on the stock market, investors were again drawn to the idea of the US currency’s “exceptionalism”.

According to the latest US Federal Reserve meeting minutes released yesterday, the regulator remains focused on maintaining the health of the labour market. The US economy is growing strongly, providing solid support for the USD position.

Interesting US inflation data for September will be released today. The weekly jobless claims report is also worth noting.

The EURUSD forecast remains cautious for now.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

Gold (XAUUSD) reversed upwards from 2,600 USD

XAUUSD price has completed a downward correction, with the chart showing an upward reversal. The market will focus on the US Producer Price Index (PPI) data. More details and insights are available in our XAUUSD analysis for today, 11 October 2024.

XAUUSD forecast: key trading points

• Market focus: market participants are awaiting today’s US inflation statistics, with the Producer Price Index (PPI) scheduled for release
• Current trend: the pair is trading in an uptrend
• USD forecast for 11 October 2024: 2,630 and 2,670

Fundamental analysis

XAUUSD quotes have completed a downward correction, receiving active support from buyers near 2,600 USD. Gold continues to attract demand from global central banks and investors, with escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East adding to its appeal.

Yesterday’s US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data broadly aligned with market expectations. The Producer Price Index (PPI) is due today. A weaker-than-expected reading could exert pressure on the USD and help strengthen gold. Conversely, a higher-than-expected figure would support the US dollar, potentially pushing XAUUSD prices lower.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

Gold (XAUUSD) continues its ascent, rising above 2,650 USD

XAUUSD price has completed a downward correction and decisively reversed upwards. The price is expected to continue ascending and potentially hit a new all-time high of 2,685 USD. Discover more in our XAUUSD analysis for today, 14 October 2024.

XAUUSD forecast: key trading points

• Market focus: last week’s US inflation statistics came out roughly in line with forecasts
• Current trend: trading in an uptrend
• XAUUSD forecast for 14 October 2024: 2,630 and 2,685

Fundamental analysis

XAUUSD quotes have completed a downward correction and reversed upwards in line with the trend, receiving active support from buyers at around 2,600 USD. Gold is in demand from global central banks and investors, with escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East adding to its appeal.

Last week’s US inflation data, particularly the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Producer Price Index (PPI), roughly aligned with forecasts. The stock market responded to the released statistics with a rise, and gold also strengthened against the US dollar.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

EURUSD declines for the third consecutive week

The EURUSD rate continues to edge down, falling below 1.0900. Discover more in our analysis for 15 October 2024.

EURUSD forecast: key trading points

• Markets estimate the likelihood of a 25-basis-point Federal Reserve rate cut in November at 86.8%
• The ECB is expected to lower the interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.25%
• EURUSD forecast for 15 October 2024: 1.0890 and 1.0850

Fundamental analysis

The euro continues to trade under pressure from strong US labour market data as markets expect the Fed to reduce interest rates at a more measured pace.

At its Thursday meeting, the ECB is expected to lower the interest rate from 3.50% to 3.25%. The projected rate cut pressures the European currency, pushing the EURUSD pair down.

Today, the market will focus on the euro area Bank Lending Survey (BLS), industrial production growth rates, and the ZEW Economic Sentiment Index. Depending on the data released, volatility in the EURUSD pair may increase sharply.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

USDJPY: BoJ’s uncertain stance and weak data put pressure on the yen

The USDJPY rate rose slightly on Wednesday but remains below the resistance level. Find out more in our analysis for 16 October 2024.

USDJPY forecast: key trading points

• Seiji Adachi’s speech did not significantly impact the volatility of the USDJPY pair
• According to the BoJ official, interest rate hikes should be gradual to avoid the risk of deflation
• Japan’s machinery orders fell by 1.9% in August
• USDJPY forecast for 16 October 2024: 150.22, 151.30, and 153.22

Fundamental analysis

The USDJPY rate continues to test the 149.45 resistance level. However, buyers have yet to secure a position above it. The speech by BoJ official Seiji Adachi, which could have shed light on the BoJ’s future monetary policy moves, did not significantly impact the currency pair’s movements.

In his speech, Adachi said that the interest rate should be raised gradually to avoid the risk of deflation. He noted that the Japanese economy has already created conditions for normalising monetary policy, but slowing global demand requires a thorough assessment. The regulator’s official also emphasised that it is necessary to maintain a loose financial policy until inflation reaches a stable level.

Meanwhile, machinery orders in Japan decreased by 1.9% in August 2024, although analysts expected a 1.5% increase. This represents the fifth contraction this year. Orders declined by 3.4% year-on-year, significantly contrasting with the 8.7% growth in July. Therefore, this data within today’s USDJPY forecast may exert additional pressure on the yen.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

AUDUSD rises on positive employment data

The AUDUSD rate remains above the EMA-200 line, thanks to the stable Australian economy. Discover more in our analysis for 17 October 2024.

AUDUSD forecast: key trading points

• Analysts expect the RBA not to lower interest rates until the first half of next year
• The Australian economy added 64,100 jobs in September, well above the forecast of 25,000
• Australia’s labour force participation rate increased to a record 67.2% in September
• AUDUSD forecast for 17 October 2024: 0.6645

Fundamental analysis

The AUDUSD rate rose on Thursday after falling for three consecutive days. A robust employment report supported the Australian dollar, reinforcing the hawkish outlook for the Reserve Bank of Australia’s monetary policy.

The data showed that the Australian economy added 64,100 jobs in September, significantly exceeding the forecast of 25,000, while the unemployment rate remained at 4.1%. The labour force participation rate increased to a record 67.2% in September, up from 67.1% in August and above analysts’ forecasts of 67.1%. The results indicate the labour market’s resilience, reducing the likelihood of an RBA interest rate cut in the coming months.

Meanwhile, Reserve Bank of Australia Assistant Governor Sarah Hunter warned that the central bank remains committed to controlling inflation amid steady price growth. According to analysts (given the strengthening labour market), the regulator will not lower interest rates until the first half of next year, which may support the Australian dollar as part of today’s AUDUSD forecast.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

USDJPY: Japan’s inflation eases but remains above the BoJ’s target

The USDJPY rate is hovering around an 11-week high. Find out more in our analysis for 18 October 2024.

USDJPY forecast: key trading points

• Japan’s consumer prices rose by 2.5% year-on-year in September, the lowest level since April
• Tokyo’s core inflation index increased by 2.4% in September, remaining above the BoJ’s 2.0% target
• Japan’s top currency diplomat, Atsushi Mimura, warned against excessive yen volatility
• USDJPY forecast for 18 October 2024: 151.15

Fundamental analysis

The USDJPY rate is undergoing a correction after rising for two days. The yen remains under pressure due to easing inflation in the country, which weakens the national currency despite expectations that the BoJ will tighten its monetary policy. According to today’s USDJPY forecast, the currency pair will likely continue its upward trend.

Japan’s consumer prices rose by 2.5% year-on-year in September, down from 3.0% in August. This is the first time inflation has slowed since March and the lowest since April 2024. The core inflation index, closely monitored by the BoJ, rose by 2.4%, marking the lowest reading since April after a 2.8% increase in August. The figure has remained above the regulator’s 2.0% target for 30 months. Inflation, excluding food and energy, was 2.1% in September, up from 2.0% in August.

Bank of Japan Policy Board member Seiji Adachi recently noted that the pace of interest rate hikes should be moderate, warning against abrupt policy changes due to uncertainty in the global economy and the country’s wage growth rate. At the same time, the yen’s weakness prompted Japan’s top currency diplomat, Atsushi Mimura, to remind the Japanese government that it is closely watching foreign exchange movements and to emphasise that excessive volatility is undesirable.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team