Market Fundamental Analysis by RoboForex

[Vlad RF]

Gold (XAUUSD) retraces after reaching an all-time high of 2,532 USD, but the uptrend may resume

Although XAUUSD’s price dropped below 2,500 USD as part of a correction on Thursday, the prospects for further growth remain. Find out more in our XAUUSD analysis for today, 23 August 2024.

XAUUSD forecast: key trading points

• Market focus: market participants await today’s speech by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell at the Jackson Hole Symposium
• Current trend: gold is trading in a strong uptrend, with growth likely after the correction
• XAUUSD forecast for 23 August 2024: 2532 and 2450

Fundamental analysis

XAUUSD quotes retraced, dropping below 2,500 USD during Thursday’s trading. The recent strong growth in gold prices was largely driven by increased expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut this year. The current correction may be due to profit-taking by some investors.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will deliver a speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium today. The Fed’s decisive stance on future interest rate reductions will provide gold with additional upward momentum. Conversely, if his speech raises doubts about future cuts, this may strengthen the US dollar and prompt further correction in the XAUUSD price.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts.

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

Gold (XAUUSD) rises steadily, trading above 2,500 USD per troy ounce

XAUUSD price closed the previous week above 2,500 USD, exhibiting a steady uptrend driven by fundamental factors. Find out more in our XAUUSD analysis for today, 26 August 2024.

XAUUSD forecast: key trading points

• Market focus: gold reached a new all-time high of 2,532 USD last week
• Current trend: gold is trading in a strong uptrend, with growth likely to continue
• XAUUSD forecast for 26 August 2024: 2,532 and 2,483

Fundamental analysis

XAUUSD quotes showed sustained growth last week, reaching a new all-time high of 2,532 USD. The rise in gold prices was primarily driven by demand from global central banks and heightened expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut this year.

In his speech at the recent Jackson Hole Symposium, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell confirmed the beginning of a monetary policy easing cycle. A September interest rate cut is a done deal, while further Fed actions will depend on economic data. Market participants expect at least one more interest rate reduction by the end of the year.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

Brent price begins to rise, surpassing 80.00 USD

Brent price is experiencing steady growth, surpassing 80.00 USD per barrel; today, the focus is on the API oil stock data. Find out more in our Brent analysis for today, 27 August 2024.

Brent forecast: key trading points

• US data: the market awaits the API US oil inventory statistics today
• Brent forecast for 27 August 2024: 78.00 and 81.70

Fundamental analysis

Brent quotes have halted their decline and reversed upwards, finding support at a local daily low of 75.00 USD. Oil prices are being supported by a rise in stock markets, driven by the US Federal Reserve’s intention to start a monetary policy easing cycle, with the first rate cut in September.

Brent price will depend on US oil stock data from the American Petroleum Institute (API) during today’s American session. At the same time, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) will provide market participants with oil inventory statistics tomorrow. After the release of these figures, volatility in oil prices may increase.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

EURUSD: risks of a correction are increasing

The EURUSD rate declined after unsuccessful attempts to rise above 1.1200. Find out more in our analysis dated 28 August 2024.

EURUSD forecast: key trading points

• Investor confidence in a 50-basis-point Federal Reserve interest rate cut grows
• The preliminary Q2 US GDP estimate is expected to show an increase of 2.8%
• The core Personal Consumption Expenditures price index is projected to rise by 2.7%
• EURUSD forecast for 28 August 2024: 1.1150 and 1.0980

Fundamental analysis

The EURUSD rate fell below 1.1150 on Wednesday morning, potentially signalling a downward correction. However, as part of today’s EURUSD forecast, the US dollar remains under pressure due to growing expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut and concerns about US recession risks.

Investors are confident that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates as early as next month after Chair Jerome Powell’s dovish comments last week. Now, the focus is on whether this will be a 50-basis-point rate cut. According to the FedWatch tool from CME Group, the likelihood of such a significant interest rate reduction has increased to 36% from 29% a week ago.

At the end of the trading week, traders will focus on economic indicators. The preliminary Q2 US GDP estimate is due tomorrow, with the economy expected to grow by 2.8%. The core PCE price index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, will be released on Friday. It is projected to increase to 2.7% from the previous 2.5%. According to analysts, the inflation rate would need to significantly exceed expectations to change forecasts for several interest rate cuts by the regulator.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

EURUSD: US GDP data may trigger a correction in the pair

ECB officials’ speeches, US initial jobless claims, and the GDP data release could heat today’s market. Find out more in our analysis dated 29 August 2024.

EURUSD forecast: key trading points

• A speech by European Central Bank official Isabel Schnabel
• A speech by European Central Bank official Philip R. Lane
• The Eurogroup meeting
• US initial jobless claims: previously at 232,000, projected at 232,000
• Q2 US GDP: previously at 1.4%, projected at 2.8%
• EURUSD forecast for 29 August 2024: 1.1090 and 1.1150

Fundamental analysis

The EURUSD analysis for 29 August 2024 shows that the market is awaiting a large set of economic data from the eurozone, including speeches by ECB officials, Schnabel and Lane, and the Eurogroup meeting. ECB officials’ speeches often indicate future monetary policy and economic expectations, and increased market volatility can be expected during them.

A set of data, including US initial jobless claims, will be released after the US trading session opens. A preliminary forecast suggests that the figure will remain flat at 232,000, which may support the US dollar’s strength against the euro.

GDP is the aggregate value of all goods and services produced in a country. Only end products are considered, excluding the production of raw materials.

The forecast for 29 August 2024 suggests a 2.8% increase in US GDP, double the previous reading. If actual data aligns with expectations, the EURUSD rate could decline markedly.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

USDJPY forecast: investors anticipate BoJ rate hike

The USDJPY pair is experiencing a slight correction on Friday after two consecutive days of gains. To understand the latest market movements, delve into our analysis for 30 August 2024.

USDJPY forecast: key trading points

• Japan's unemployment rate for July 2024 increased to 2.7%.
• Core CPI in Tokyo rose by 2.4% in August 2024
• Japan's industrial production grew by 2.8% in July 2024, rebounding from a significant decline
• USDJPY forecast for 30 August 2024: 141.60, 139.70, and 137.77

Fundamental analysis

The USDJPY rate was buoyed by recent US GDP and Initial Jobless Claims data, alleviating recession concerns and bolstering the USD. Concurrently, Japan's economic data fuelled expectations of a potential BoJ interest rate hike, which could strengthen the yen within today's USDJPY forecast.

Japan's unemployment rate increased to 2.7% in July 2024, up from 2.5% in June, marking the highest level since August 2023.

Tokyo's core consumer price index rose at an annualised rate of 2.4% in August 2024, marking the fourth consecutive month of acceleration and surpassing market expectations of a 2.2% increase.

Retail sales in Japan grew at an annualised rate of 2.6% in July 2024, slowing from June's 3.8% rise and falling short of the anticipated 2.9% growth.

Japan's industrial production expanded by 2.8% in July 2024, recovering from a sharp -4.2% decline. However, this growth fell short of the forecasted 3.3% (according to preliminary data).

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

EURUSD: the euro attempts to regain ground on US Labor Day

The eurozone’s PMI and the US holiday may not weaken the US dollar. Find out more in our EURUSD forecast dated 2 September 2024.

EURUSD forecast: key trading points

• Today is US Labor Day
• The eurozone’s manufacturing PMI for August: previously at 45.6, projected at 45.6
• EURUSD forecast for 2 September 2024: 1.1005 and 1.1096

Fundamental analysis

Today is a holiday in the US due to Labor Day, which may give the euro a chance to strengthen against the US dollar, as many US traders are unlikely to participate in trading.

The PMI index evaluates the activity of purchasing managers in the industrial sector. This index reflects the state of the industry and the dynamics of industrial processes in the eurozone. Traders closely follow this data as purchasing managers are the first to receive information about their companies’ operations, making the PMI a crucial measure of the general economic situation. Readings above 50.0 points indicate industrial growth, while values below 50.0 points suggest a downturn.

EURUSD analysis for 2 September 2024 shows that the PMI index may remain flat at 45.6, indicating some stability in the industrial sector. However, as it is still below 50.0 points, it is unlikely to impact the EURUSD rate positively.

Investors await a decision on the Federal Reserve interest rates, due on 18 September 2024. US inflation data remains stable; analysts suggest a 50-basis-point change is unlikely at this stage.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

USDCHF: the US dollar awaits a chance to strengthen

The release of Switzerland’s CPI and GDP data and the US PMI data may help the US dollar strengthen its position. Find out more in our analysis dated 3 September 2024.

USDCHF forecast: key trading points

• Switzerland’s Consumer Price Index (m/m) for August: previously at -0.2%, projected at 0.1%
• Switzerland’s GDP (q/q): previously at 0.5%, projected at 0.5%
• US manufacturing PMI: previously at 49.6, projected at 48.0
• USDCHF forecast for 3 September 2024: 0.8572

Fundamental analysis

The Consumer Price Index reflects the dynamics of consumer prices for goods and services. Investors view a higher-than-expected reading as a positive factor for economic health, while a weaker-than-expected reading is considered negative.

For August, Switzerland’s Consumer Price Index (m/m) is projected to return to positive territory. The previous reading was -0.2%, while a forecast for 3 September 2024 is optimistic, suggesting 0.1%. A stronger-than-expected actual CPI reading may strengthen the Swiss franc.

GDP reflects the aggregate value of all goods and services produced in a country (only end products are considered, excluding the costs of raw materials). Switzerland releases quarterly GDP changes in percentage terms, demonstrating the economy’s comprehensive dynamics.

Analysis for 3 September 2024 suggests that the GDP reading may remain flat at 0.5%, and the actual figure will show whether expectations are realised. An increase in the indicator may help strengthen the Swiss franc against the US dollar, while a decrease in GDP will drive further growth in the USDCHF rate.

The US manufacturing PMI evaluates the activity of purchasing managers in the industrial sector, reflecting the state and the dynamics of industrial processes. According to a preliminary estimate, the index is expected to decrease to 48.0 points. Given that figures have been decreasing for the past several months, the actual reading in the current period may be equal to or below the projected value.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

Gold (XAUUSD) is under pressure but holds above the crucial support level

XAUUSD price fell below 2,500 USD on Tuesday but stayed above the significant 2,470-2,480 USD support area. The market will focus on US employment data on Thursday and Friday. Find out more in our XAUUSD analysis for today, 4 September 2024.

XAUUSD forecast: key trading points

• Market focus: market participants await US employment statistics at the end of the week
• Current trend: although gold is trading within an uptrend, there are risks of a downward correction
• XAUUSD forecast for 4 September 2024: 2,532 and 2,470

Fundamental analysis

XAUUSD quotes are trading within an uptrend, supported by the beginning of US Federal Reserve monetary policy easing. However, gold has yet to reach the all-time high of 2,532 USD, as it encounters active selling pressure near this level. The US employment market statistics due Thursday and Friday may influence future asset movements.

Automatic Data Processing Inc. (ADP) will publish employment data on Thursday, while nonfarm payrolls and the unemployment rate will be released on Friday. A decline in employment could weaken the USD and help strengthen gold. Conversely, job growth could support the US dollar and push XAUUSD into a downward correction.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

USDJPY heads down: demand for the yen has risen significantly

The USDJPY pair is losing ground. The market favours the yen as a safe-haven asset. Discover more in our analysis for 5 September 2024.

USDJPY forecast: key trading points

• The USDJPY pair fell to a two-month low
• Japan’s robust domestic statistics and weak US reports are supporting the yen
• USDJPY forecast for 5 September 2024: 141.46

Fundamental analysis

The USDJPY rate halted its decline near the 143.69 level.

The pair is hovering near a two-month low after an active two-day sell-off. The yen’s strength is now based on the latest statistics from Japan. Data showed that real wages in the country rose in July for the second consecutive month, adding 0.4% y/y. Overall cash earnings increased by 3.6%.

This aligns with the Bank of Japan’s forecast for moderate economic growth rates. Additionally, such data supports expectations of wage increases, which will lead to higher overall inflation.

In addition to domestic statistics, the yen benefitted from growing market demand for safe-haven assets following the release of relatively weak US statistics. The figures reminded investors of a potential recession in the US economy, which boosted demand for safe-haven assets. The USDJPY forecast suggests local growth in the yen.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team