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[HFM]

Date : 4th May 2015.

TODAY’S CURRENCY MOVERS.

EURUSD, Daily

EURUSD has reacted lower from the resistance level (1.1279) I pointed out in my previous Currency Movers reports. On Friday US April ISM remained stuck at 51.5, below median 52.0 (vs 51.5 in March) while U.S. construction spending fell 0.6% in March, (below median 0.5%) and US Markit final PMI eased to 54.1 in April. The absence of Tokyo and London centres will ensure thin trade today. Through to Friday, the euro had climbed for seven successive days, but looks likely for a pause now. Greece remains an issue. Despite signs that the government in Athens has adopted an improved attitude, news reports from weekend negotiations suggest that fundamental differences remain with creditors, particularly on pension reform and privatisation proposals. Next daily support level is at 1.1035.

Currency Pairs, Grouped Performance (% Change)

At the time of writing Euro’s performance remains mixed while USD is only just slightly stronger than its peers. US Dollar Index is reacting higher from support level (94.91) I pointed out in my earlier reports but there has not yet been much movement which is evidenced by the above chart. The only exception is CHF that has been weak this morning almost across the board. EURCHF lagging behind the others as both currencies in this pair are reacting lower from a resistance. JPY slightly stronger than others with EURJPY reacting from a resistance. All in all there hasn’t been much movement this morning as Japanese and Brits are enjoying a day off.

Main Macro Events Today

Chinese HSBC Final Manufacturing PMI fell to a final 48.9 in April, down from the preliminary (or “flash) reading of 49.2 and the final 49.6 in March. The April figure fell short of expectations for little change from the preliminary report’s 49.2. Government’s stimulus efforts are falling short, with the government’s target for 7% GDP growth looking increasing optimistic. Further stimulus measures from the government and another rate cut from the PBoC are likely in store for the near term.

Eurozone Markit Manufacturing PMI: The April Manufacturing PMI fell to 51.9 from 52.2 and the services reading to 53.7 from 54.2, which brought the composite down to 53.5 from 54.0. Indicators still point to healthy expansion. The overall EMU Markit PMI is expected to come in at 51.9.

US Factory Orders m/m March factory orders are expected to grow 2.0%.

Please, click here to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Janne Muta
Chief Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date : 4th May 2015 (Second Analysis)

EURJPY AT RESISTANCE AND WITH ROOM TO FALL.

EURGBP, Weekly

As EURUSD moved higher last week, EURJPY rallied very strongly and reached the February highs. Last week’s close was inside the weekly pivot candle from February this year, roughly the same area that was earlier defined by October 2014 pivot low. As reaction to previous pivot levels and today’s price action now proves this area has psychological significance. The nearest support and resistance levels are 131.30 and 136.85. The 50% Fibonacci level coincides roughly with the 131.30 support. This is quite far away from the current price and therefore suggests current levels are good for those looking for shorting opportunities. Earlier today EURUSD has been reacting lower from a resistance while JPY has been slightly stronger than its peers across the board. With EURJPY also trading lower from a resistance this should be a good time to be bearish on EUR and bullish on JPY.

EURJPY, Daily

On Friday EURJPY hit resistance just above 135.02 and turned lower. This resistance was created by a pivot candle from February 11th and now price is trading 0.49% below the close from Friday. Stochastics is overbought and about to roll over while the pair has been trading outside the Bollinger Bands and is now edging close to the upper 2 stdv band. A close below the band would be a further confirmation of bearish mood in EURJPY. The nearest daily support level is at 131.29 with the 50% Fibonacci level and 50 day SMA not that far behind at 130.75 and 130.32 respectively. Movements below 38.2% Fibonacci level at 131.81 should be monitored for momentum reversal signals.

EURJPY, 240 min

As the pair has moved lower the Stochastic Oscillator has declined to overbought levels. However price is now trading below 134.23, a level that used to be an intraday support and should now act as a resistance. Nearest intraday support level is at 132.46 where lower Bollinger Bands and an old channel high coincide. The next support area consists of April 6th pivotal resistance area between 130.40 and 131.29. Currently the 50 period SMA is also inside area.

Conclusion

The pair is overbought in higher timeframes and in resistance which indicates it’s time for it to correct lower. At the time of writing EUR is weak against all the major currencies while JPY is holding up against all the others but CAD. This combined with the technical weakness in EURJPY suggests that the trading opportunities in this pair are in the downside. EURUSD being weak at resistance is also supporting the bearish view. My target one in for short term trades is at 131.50 and target 2 at 130.40.

Trade these levels only if price action at the levels confirms my analysis. If you don’t know how to read price action, please join me to our free webinars and learn how to take your trading to the next level.

Janne Muta
Chief Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date : 5th May 2015.

TODAY’S CURRENCY MOVERS.

EURUSD, Daily

On May the 1st I wrote: the EUR is strong across the board this morning but at some point reversion to mean kicks in and this market will react lower. EURUSD started turning lower that very same day and has been moving lower since. It is breaking intraday supports and honouring resistance levels. Stochastics are rolling over and price is trading inside the Bollinger Bands. At the time of writing the pair is at 23.6% Fibonacci level that coincides with April 30th daily lows. The 1.1035 to 1.1052 support area is a likely target on the downside if the 23.6% level is violated. Yesterday was light on economic releases. US factory orders bounced 2.1% in March, right in line with median expectations versus -0.1% in February.

Currency Pairs, Grouped Performance (% Change)

As I suggested last week the the US Dollar index has been strong since DXY hit support at 94.91 and after a slow start it has moved higher over the last couple of days. The AUD strength that followed the 0.25% rate cut has been a surprise and has raised eye brows on Bloomberg TV this morning. Aussie dollar is strong across the board with EUR, CAD and CHF being the weakest currencies against it. EUR being weak against everything else probably isn’t any surprise to regular readers of Currency Movers report. EURUSD trading lower from a resistance level has been dragging the other EUR pairs lower with it and this has created trading opportunities in these pairs. One of them was EURJPY which I analysed in yesterday’s Multi Time Frame article. GBP pairs have not moved much yet but with the election looming just a couple days from now there could be some more volatility ahead. EURGBP looks interesting as it rallied so strongly over the last week. After hitting my target range of 0.7376 to 0.7422 the pair has turned lower and could provide further opportunities for short term traders with volatility likely staying high.

Main Macro Events Today

RBA Cash Rate: The RBA cut the cash rate by 25 bp to a record low of 2.0%, as was largely expected. A reference to the currency in the statement gets to the crux, that a further fall in the Australian dollar is necessary. The RBA would have been discomforted by last week’s surge in AUD-USD to a three-month high at 0.8075. The central bank also cites weakness in capital expenditure as a key risk, and notes that spare capacity will remain in the economy for some time.

Spanish Unemployment is expected to drop by 64.8k compared to previous change of -60.2k.

UK Construction PMI is seen to stay almost unchanged. Median figure points to a slight 0.2 point dip.

CAD Trade Balance is projected to improve to a C$0.9 bln deficit in March from the C$1.0 bln shortfall in February.

US Trade Balance is likely to increase by 25% to -$44.5 bln in March (median -$40.3bln) from -$35.4 bln in February.

US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI is expected to hold steady from 56.5 in April. This compares to a recent high of 58.8 in November.

Please, click here to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Janne Muta
Chief Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date : 5th May 2015 (Second Analysis)

EUR HAS BEEN MOVING LOWER. DO YOU KNOW HOW TO TIME YOUR SHORT ENTRIES?.

Did you see how EURUSD turned from a resistance I pointed out to you well in advance but didn’t know how to trade the move? EURJPY is another pair with a great opportunity to short the market yesterday after my analysis. However, do you know how to do it step by step? Join me today to a Live Analysis Webinar and I will show you how to analyse the market and take advantage of high probability trade setups. I will also answer your trading questions live.

Twice a month we gather together to a Live Analysis Webinar to study the markets and recent price action. In these sessions I share my thoughts and analysis on currency pairs and teach our traders to understand what is important when looking for high probability trade setups. This is a great opportunity to watch and learn fromwhat I share and get your questions answered. We’ve had excellent feed back from our traders on these sessions. I am convinced that you will benefit greatly by investing an hour of your time with the rest of us. Please, follow the link below and book your seat.

Janne Muta
Chief Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date : 6th May 2015.

TODAY’S CURRENCY MOVERS.

EURUSD, Daily

Broad dollar weakness has kept the EURUSD on an upward trajectory following yesterday’s big U.S. trade deficit miss, which risks a negative outcome in revised Q1 GDP data. This is obviously a reason for the Fed to be cautious about the US economy and means the Fed will be seen more likely to push the first rate hike further in to the future. On the other hand this Friday’s U.S. jobs report for April could show a rebound from unexpected weakness in March and therefore be a reason for added volatility and a reaction to lower levels. EURUSD recovered the last two day’s losses yesterday after turning higher slightly above the upper end of my support range. The latest rally came despite a Greek government official, cited by Bloomberg yesterday, saying that a compromise in bailout negotiations cannot occur until the IMF and the European Commission reduce the number of red lines they’re demanding and resolve differences between them. Greece needs to roll-over 1.4 bln euros of debt on May 8th and pay 200 million euros in interest payments to the IMF. Should there be further glitches in the negotiations they could be translated into added volatility in euro pairs. Yesterday’s daily candle was a hammer right above a support area (former resistance) which suggested higher prices, and now the pair is approaching the 1.1290 resistance. As usual, we look to buy at supports and sell at resistances but this time we might well see a push higher (than 1.1290) and then a reaction from higher levels. The nearest resistance after 1.1290 is at 1.1356 while the nearest daily support stays at 1.1035 – 1.1052.

Currency Pairs, Grouped Performance (% Change)

Today’s weakest currency has been NZD. At the time of writing this NZD is down against GBP by almost 1% and against the AUD and EUR approx. 1.40%. GBPNZD has been rallying after yesterday’s narrow range candle at support while AUDNZD continues the rally from yesterday. AUD started rallying yesterday morning after the RBA cut the rates by 0.25% and the market participants interpreted the action as the last rate cut the central bank will make. Now that NZD has been weak, let’s take a quick look a the NZD pairs. NZDJPY is trading daily Bollinger Bands after moving sideways for few days, AUDNZD has reached a resistance created by a pivot candle and the weekly 1.5 stdv Bollinger Band while GBPNZD has reacted lower from last week’s high at 2.0359. EURNZD has been trending higher but has been reacting lower this morning and NZDUSD is trading at lower daily Bollinger Bands. There will be a point at which strong runners have been moving too far too fast and will correct lower. Look for price action to confirm your trading ideas.

Main Macro Events Today

Australia retail sales rose 0.3% in March after the 0.7% m/m gain in February. The March gain was as-expected. Meanwhile, retail sales volumes increased 0.7% in Q1.

HSBC China Services PMI from April came in slightly below expectations at 52.9 (vs consensus 53.1) but improved from March print of 52.3.

Eurozone services PMIs beat expectations in rising to 54.1 in April, up from the flash estimate of 53.7 but slightly down on March’s 54.2. The composite PMI worked out at 53.9, up from the flash estimate of 53.5 but down on the 54.0 March figure, which was an 11-month high. Highlights from the national data include Germany’s services PMI dipping to 54.1 from the flash 54.4 figure and down from 55.4 in March, while the French services PMI fell to 51.4 from 52.4.

Spain’s Markit April services PMI was outstanding and surged to 60.3 after 57.4 in March, surpassing the median forecast of 57.4 by a big margin. This adds to the growing line of encouraging data out of Spain.

UK Markit services PMI is expected to ease slightly to 58.7 from 58.9.

Eurozone Retail Sales for March expected to register some contraction and come in at 2.4% vs February 3.0%.

ADP Employment Change April nonfarm payrolls are expected to increase by 220k, with a 210k private payroll gain while today’s ADP figure is expected to show a slight increase to 192k from previous 189k.

FED Chair Yellen Speaks

Please, click here to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Janne Muta
Chief Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date : 7th May 2015.

TODAY’S CURRENCY MOVERS.

EURUSD, Daily

I wrote yesterday that we look to buy at supports and sell at resistances but this time we might well see a push higher (than 1.1290) and then a reaction from higher levels. The nearest resistance after 1.1290 is at 1.1356… This is exactly what happened in yesterday’s trading. EURUSD pushed above the resistance and yesterday’s daily candle closed at 1.1341 after touching my resistance level at 1.1356. EURUSD has been running higher despite persisting Greek uncertainties, which has seen the Greek 2-year yield push back above 21%. Broader dollar weakness has underpinned EURUSD amid a continued flow of soft U.S. data, including yesterday’s weak ADP jobs and productivity data (Nonfarm Productivity q/q -1.9%), which followed big U.S. trade deficit miss on day before. Should Greek government and Greece’s creditors fail to reach compromise, it would likely trigger a referendum, if not elections on whether to stay in the single currency. Such a failure to agree on a compromise would spark an explosion in Grexit fears. According to Fed Chair Yellen long term yields are at “very low levels”, and said that rate lift off could trigger a sharp jump in rates. She didn’t give any clues on just when the first tightening might happen but pointed to risks in the stock market as the valuations are “generally quite high” and that raising the Fed funds rate is likely to be followed by a spike in Treasury yields.

This morning EURUSD has been trading in the proximity of the 1.1356 resistance level and has this far struggled to move decisively above the yesterday’s high of 1.1370. This increases the likelihood of EURUSD correcting lower. However, there are support levels fairly close and it is likely that a retracement into this bracket will attract buyers. I look to for buy signals between 1.1290 and 1.1223 with a target range at 1.1480 to 1.1534.

Currency Pairs, Grouped Performance (% Change)

There has not been much movement in currencies overnight. Only a few pairs have had some movement while most are in the 20 – 30 basis point range. The only exceptions to this sleepiness are, EURCAD and EURGBP that have at the time of writing moved -0.41% and 0.38% respectively. CHF being a safe haven currency is attracting money as well. It has moved the most against GBP and AUD. on this election morning the UK Sterling has been slightly weaker than the other majors signalling that the market participants cautious before the election results are available.

Main Macro Events Today

UK Parliamentary Election: Pre-election polls have been remarkably consistent, putting the Conservative Party in the lead, but with support well short of an outright majority. This leaves a good possibility that a coalition government will formed.

Australian Employment Change and Rate sank 2.9k in April by seasonally adjusted measure, well below the modest gain expected, while the unemployment rate ticked up to 6.2% from 6.1%.

German Factory Orders rose 0.9% m/m, below market consensus, which hoped for a stronger rebound from the two months of contraction. Especially as current condition indicators in confidence indicators had been strong. Still, the return to growth coupled with still robust ZEW, Ifo and PMI readings confirms that the German economy remains on track.

US Jobless Claims are expected to be 280k (median 279k) in the week-ended May 2. Continuing claims are expected to rise to 2,300k for the week-ended April 25. Forecast risk is downward, as there is risk of rebound after last week’s large decline and market risk for USD is likewise downward, as weaker than expected data could further delay rate hike expectations.

Canadian Building Permits are expected to rise 1.0% in March (median +3.0%) after the 0.9% dip in February and 12.3% plunge in January.

US Consumer Credit consumer credit for March is expected to increase $16.0 bln after a $15.5 bln gain in February.

Please, click here to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Janne Muta
Chief Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date : 7th May 2015 (Second Analysis)

COPPER TRADING AT RESISTANCE.

Copper, Weekly

In my previous report on copper (March 16th) I wrote that traders might want to be buyers near support levels rather than trying to find shorts as the Chinese premier Li Keqiang commented that the government will be ready to support the Chinese economy. The logic was that the hope of economic stimulus in China should support the price of copper. The price of red metal has since risen by 9.3% after testing the $2.55 support I identified in the same report. Then the $2.88 resistance created sizeable swing to the downside but was penetrated on a closing basis just few days ago. The world stock markets have been correcting lower pretty strongly this week.

Over the last couple of months investors have also been reasoning that with ECB printing Euros fund managers would need to allocate money to commodities. This has supported metals and especially copper lately. Now however the global equity markets are looking soft and with such a risk aversion in place we might see the price of copper being capped over the medium to long term.The MSCI World index, a global benchmark for equities, has fallen out of the rising weekly regression channel and created a shooting star in the monthly time frame (see my @HF_Analysis, ie my tweets for charts). MSCI World has been a good indicator on stock market tops in the past and the current action in the index points to higher volatility that should then be resolved to lower equity prices over the rest of this year. This is not promising for the price of copper in long term.

Currently copper is trading between support and resistance levels and it has reached proximity of descending long term trendline. Weekly lows from October last year at $2.95 resist moves higher. In addition, we have the 50 week simple moving average at $2.93, right at the at the current bid price. Stochastics are overbought and unless there is no strong movement to either direction today or tomorrow this week’s trading will create a doji candle. Should this week’s candle indeed become a doji the support at March high ($2.91) is more likely to be broken. The next weekly support level is at $2.83. If the $2.91 level holds then the next resistance is at $3.08.

Copper, Daily

Stochastics are overbought and now they are moving sideways as the last three days’ trading has been range bound. The support and resistance levels are pretty much the same as in weekly picture with $2.83 being the first level that is likely to attract buying should the 2.91 – 2.89 support break. After that the next levels to look at are the rising trendline and the $2.66 to $2.70 support range. However, if today’s trading finishes above the midway of the candle we have a candle that suggests further upward pressure. This would increase possibilities that the current consolidation is a bull flag that will be resolved in the direction of the original move. The next daily resistance levels are at 2.95, 3.01 and 3.08.

Copper, 240 min

Price has been finding support between $2.89 and $2.91 while the resistance is at $2.95 – $2.96 range. Such a tight range usually implies uncertainty in the market place and can lead to price reversing an earlier move. This far the bar lows have each been slightly higher than previous ones but should copper start making lower lows the downside risk would increase. Narrowing Bollinger Bands suggests that there will be a quick increase of volatility rather soon. At the time of writing Money Flow Index is oversold suggesting an intraday buy opportunity.

Conclusion

Copper is trading between a support and a resistance. The first reaction lower from this resistance area (in March) was quite strong creating a huge weekly shooting star candle. Now that the price has been able to move further into the resistance and has stayed above the March high we need to follow the price action closely to see if this support will hold. If today’s trading finishes above the midway of the daily candle we have an indication of further upward pressure. This would increase possibilities that the current consolidation is a bull flag that will be resolved in the direction of the original move. The next daily resistance levels are at 2.95, 3.01 and 3.08. However, please remember that because price is at longer term resistance easy money for longs has been made and long trades at current levels are not high probability trades. As a general rule I do not like to be a buyer close to higher timeframe resistance levels but would rather like to see a correction to daily support levels where I would be looking for price based confirmation for the long side bias. However, those wanting to trade aggressively short term or intraday could consider buying at levels close to intraday supports at 2.89 to 2.91 with less than usual gearing. If price breaks below the 2.91 support, we should be looking for short term opportunities on the downside (as per my teaching in the webinars) with targets at daily and weekly support levels. Also, the publication of US NFP report on Friday is getting near and this should be factored into all trading decisions.

Janne Muta
Chief Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date : 8th May 2015.

TODAY’S CURRENCY MOVERS.

EURUSD, Daily

Thursday morning I expected to see a move lower and then buyers stepping in between 1.1290 and 1.1223. The pair moved lower as expected and then signalled buys inside this range but there was no follow through and the lack of momentum turned to further down move. Currently EURUSD is trading at the May 5th daily highs. There has been again some attempt to take the pair higher but intraday resistance levels have halted the moves so far. As the time of Non-Farm Payrolls release is getting closer market reactions are likely to be subdued until the figures are released. As we have seen over this year NFP figure is capable of surprising both the markets and analysts. This figure can be in line or it can deviate strongly from the expectations. As there is no way of know what the figure will be and what the market reaction to this unknown figure is likely to be, committing to a trade beforehand is not recommendable. We should only trade when probabilities are on our side.

At the time of writing EURUSD is trading at a daily high from May 5th and has created a 4h hammer candle after it bounced higher from the 50 period SMA. In the daily picture the current price action takes place close to the upper Bollinger Bands and near February sideways range. The weekly candle with current price close to the Monday’s opening price suggests weakness over the coming few days. A strong rally higher would quite obviously negate this view. In 4h timeframe the Stochastic Oscillator is oversold while in daily chart Stochastics are rolling over from the overbought levels. This fits together with price wedging at resistance. Momentum has slowed down and I expect price needs to move lower before finding a level from which to bounce higher again. Region near weekly closing value (from end of March) at 1.0960 would be an interesting level to look for signals for long trades. Significant support levels for the pair are: 1.1035, 1.0970 and 1.0848 (50 day SMA close at 1.10867), while significant resistance levels are at 1.1400 and 1.1480.

Currency Pairs, Grouped Performance (% Change)

Changes have been nominal ahead of the Non-Farm Payrolls release. AUD has still been slightly stronger than others while GBP strength that we saw earlier today has eased a bit. JPY weakness is understandable as USDJPY has made a higher low yesterday and has moved nicely higher today.

Main Macro Events Today

US Non-Farm Payrolls are likely to increase by 225k for April. An improvement over the 126k March headline but still lower than the 264k headline in February. The unemployment rate should tick down to 5.4% from 5.5% in March. The data should help underpin the dollar’s yield advantage over the euro following recent narrowing.

Canadian Employment is expected to rise 15.0k in April (median is for no change) after the 28.7k gain in March. Employment managed to put together a solid total gain in March, but the details were weak. Business confidence remains subdued, suggesting a risk for a very modest jobs gain or outright decline in April that undershoots our estimates.

Please, click here to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Janne Muta
Chief Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date : 8th May 2015 (Second Analysis)

EURUSD REACTS SLUGGISHLY TO NFP DATA.

EURUSD, Daily

U.S. nonfarm payrolls rose 223k in April, with the unemployment rate at 5.4% versus 5.5% previously (revised from 5.5%). That’s the lowest rate since May 2008. But, March’s 126k job gain was revised down to 85k, while February’s 264k was bumped up to 266k. Earnings rose 0.1% after a 0.2% March gain (revised from 0.3%). The workweek was steady at 34.5.

The FOMC can’t hike in June after this so-so jobs report, if policymakers are true to their data-dependent mantra. The April numbers support the notion that March weakness was a one-off, while other timely data suggest the Q1 contraction in GDP was partly due to a variety of special circumstances, there’s been little sign yet of a robust bounce-back in Q2. Also, many of the key labour market indicators followed by Yellen shouldn’t give her much confidence that the economy can absorb a tightening.

Even though the unemployment rate is at the lowest level since May 2008 and the labour market participation rate edged up slightly, the latter is still only a tick above the record low of 62.7 from March and September. Additionally, earnings growth is tepid, and employment has moderated. Plus, inflation is still not heating up, nor are conditions in the rest of the world conducive for Fed action yet either (by the FOMC’s own assessments). September still seems like the earliest the Fed could start the rate hikes.

EURUSD Reaction to the jobs number has been subdued. Even though the last complete 4h candle has closed above the previous candle high the daily low from yesterday has been resisting moves higher. This being a Friday night I don’t expect strong movement to either direction.

Janne Muta
Chief Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date : 18th May 2015.

TODAY’S CURRENCY MOVERS.

EURUSD, Daily

The euro is consolidating in early week trade after logging a three-month high against the dollar at 1.1466 on Friday. EURJPY and other euro crosses have also shown a similar price action. Recent signs of green shoots in economic vitality in the euro area and the associated view that the ECB may be obliged to taper its QE program at some point has supported euro. In addition, an optimistic view on the Greece situation, has helped to maintain the euro’s underpinning. In April Draghi said that the European Central Bank has no plans to curb or curtail its money-printing programme although it expects euro zone economic recovery to broaden and strengthen. Another likely reason for EURUSD strength has been the soft macro data coming from the US. From retail sales to PPI and Consumer Sentiment figures the data have been softer than expected.

Since last Tuesday EURUSD has rallied strongly and reached the proximity of 1.1480 resistance. After rising for four days the pair has reacted lower and is at the time of writing attracting buyers at 1.1370 intraday support. This level is also a daily candle high from 6th of May. With support levels being fairly close to the current prices a major correction lower without strong external event is not looking very likely. Therefore, after moves to support levels we should monitor price action for long entry signals. Daily close from 6th May coincides roughly with Friday’s low of 1.1324 and therefore is the nearest support level in the daily chart. Other support levels are at 1.1206 to 1.1232 (a 23.6% Fibonacci level) and 1.1035 to 1.1084 (a 38.6% Fibonacci level). The nearest resistances are 1.1480 and 1.1534. EURUSD is trading close to a resistance level but seems like it might be trying to push higher. However, as the weekly high of 1.1534 is relatively close it is better to trade the long side with a short term expectation only and monitor price action closely.

Currency Pairs, Grouped Performance (% Change)

Since the weekly close on Friday the 15th May we’ve seen USD and JPY weakness and EUR strength against the other major currencies. GBP has been also gaining against the majors but not as strongly as EUR. Today’s action has been a bit subdued with USD gaining against the others and EUR being strong only against the NZD. The latter has been weak pretty much against all the currencies today. Markets have been quiet this morning as we’ve only seen the early hours trading of the first day of the trading week with not much macro data to move the market.

Main Macro Events Today

Japan’s Tertiary Index agauge of services fell by 1.0% m/m in March. Contraction was deeper than expected (-0.5%) after the 0.4% m/m gain in February.

Japan Industrial Production fell 0.8% m/m in March (consensus -0.3%) while y/y drop was 1.7% after the previous drop of 1.2%.

Switzerland Real Retail Sales surprised to the downside in March with a bigger than expected drop of 2.8% (consensus -2.0%).

NAHB Housing Market Index: no major change expected from last figures.

Please, click here to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Janne Muta
Chief Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.