History Always Repeat Itself ?

[ExpertTrader]

EURUSD rate right now = 1.30485

 

[ExpertTrader]

About Market Structure

(again from One of Market Makers)


You see the brokers are not all bad people out to get everyone. They provide a service of creating a replica model of the interbank mkts for the consumption of the small traders at large.
Of course their motivation to do so is profits but nevertheless they provide a service.

At the very top of the battlefield command is the Feds. The are the owners of the market. Whatever you may trade its normmally against the USD. (even the crosses.) So in perspective you will always be walking into their radar.

They have this big chief, brainspan (used to be the cigar chewing...paul )who have a whole squad of ppl crunching numbers to determine their position and whether there're things they could do to improve their position.

then down the food chain there's the Other Central banks having their radar on their respective currencies.

The hands and legs of the feds are the Central Bank (CB) dealers, who's resposibilities are to police the market place,
making sure that its behaving itself. Its chief responsibility is to acertain that there's no riots in the market.
So long as things are peaceful, they leave everybody alone to do their thing.

then just under them is the tier 1 bank dealers. These dealers are normally marketmakers to the interbank mkt, and have very large daylight limits and risk parameters to work within. They are also the eyes for the CB dealers, as most large customers go thru them to deal. So they can see who's buying or selling dlrs.If there are irregularities where by some large customers comes into the mkts to buy or sell dlrs the CB dealers are put in the know and will be on standby to see if markets may be disturbed.

Then under teir 1 banks will be tier 2 banks, and tier 3 banks, they function as the lines of distribution. If as in the eg above, alarge corp comes selling dlr and the CB dealers do not intervene, then the tier 1 banks will start selling the dollar down to tier 2 banks in smaller packages, and tier two banks will like wise start selling to tier 3 banks in smaller packages. In 20 to 30 mins that process who fizz out and most dealers would be short of dollars. to a certain extent.

Please be aware that I am talking of a one off scenerio, where there is only one customer in the whole wide world.

 

[mynor5535101]

EURUSD rate right now = 1.30485

3 angka belakang yang berulang ulang...paidpaidpaidpaidpaid

 

[ExpertTrader]

Advice from One of Market Makers
================================

To me the most important indicator is price.
The market's sigma, which is the speed of move.
The Vega, which indicate the volitility factor in its trend and the time it consumes in it push.
You can determine all this from bare bar or candle charts.

the other indicator is true average,
with that you can determine if the volitility is out of line for your risk tenure,
you can best understand this by studying the original Dow theory.
Unfortunately there're many mutations of the Dow theory.
And those that are being used by conventional chartist today differs from my cup of tea.


the other improtant, read, is the market form.

I try to recognise the compounded formations in the bar charts.

An understanding of Hip and Lop patterns is foundational requirement.

A complimentary methodology is by complex candle chart formations.

I must stress, "never ever play god to the markets."
always stay in the "dance", feeling its moods and tempo,
using technical accrument to read the dance.
Implementing damage control when out of step.
That's actually money management.(another time)
Many analyst, behaves like fortune tellers, that is wrong.

All an analyst can master, is the art of dancing along with the market,
and recognising its behaviour as the dance progresses.
It is an on going process, not one read and you khow all, that cannot happen.
The markets are alive.

In a nutshell, There are other components necessary, other than technical analysis skills,
mindset, money moneymanagement are equaliy critical.

============
me = I cant agree more with the above

 

[ExpertTrader]

Continue - from One of the Market Makers
========================================
(listen to the other side when we re trading)

Yes I use Daily Chart studies to indicate trend,
I use short charts to indicate form.

Ponder this,
On the daily EUR/USD now we see possible topping formation, correct.

We may be right, So tell me where is it going? Should be Down, right?

When will we know if it is going down?
What if on the short charts, its going up?
So do we still want to go short?
So when should we go short?
When the short chart shows you that it topping out, right?

So if this market continues to go up. Then You miss the bus,right?
You missed the bus going north, why?
because you were at the bus stand waiting for the south bound bus, right?

Thats why I, said.
Bull makes money, Bears make money, Pigs get slaughtered.

You see, when bulls are making money, Bears are not.
When bears are making money bulls cannot.
But the one whos trying to catch both buses will sooner be dead. Crossing the road from one bus stand to another,
Because he could be at the north stand when the south bus comes, or the south stand when the north bus comes.
or mostly in th middle of the road, when both bus comes.

Do I make any sense?

For dealers, its a different game, because when markets are going up in a BEAR market, customers keep making them short,
their book keeps getting bigger short, but their average cost of being short keeps going up.
all they have to do is to wait for the trend to enforce and
when the market returns to the point where the buying started ,
he would make nearly the amount of money that made him short in the first place.

For this to happen, he has to have a book big enough to accommadate the customer base.
AND as the market swings back towards the start point, he has to ascertain that his book of shorts, be kept constant.
This is because on the way down the customers will be making him long.
So by constantly covering back to back on the way down he maintains his book short.
So for the dealer, as long as he maintains his poise in the direction of the markets major trend,
he will always make "scalp money", guaranteed.

His modus operandi, is to "duck and move quickly"
so as to have a better average on the up swing towards stops to maximise his shorting near the top of the swing.
This scenerio is most effective if there are stop near levels where he las a large order to sell,
where he can help the customer sell OB and "kill the sitting duck stops" in the same blow.
Another senerio is where by the heavy selling is CB levels or specific sell zones,
where many tier 1 Bank are ready to pounch on the buyers.
You must understand that only tier 1 and some big tier 2 will have this advantage.

This is the reason, why you have rubber band snap backs in the direction of trend directions,
and slow puffy moves counter trend.
Am I making any sense to anyone here?

So we use daily trend as the direction to build book size and short charts to make market for retraces.


YOU MUST GET THE CONCEPT OF MARKET STRUCTURE RIGHT TO UNDERSTAND THE CHARTS.

 

[I'SPY]

EURUSD rate right now = 1.30485

Cam ne master leh dapat 1.30485 ni...

 

[ignorexx]

harap jd kenyataan, aminnnnnnn

 

[ExpertTrader]

EURUSD rate right now = 1.30221 - xe.com

 

[ExpertTrader]

More from One of Market Makers
==============================

About trends, don't think, ask her.
if she don't tell you, wait
be patient, it will show, it's not that she won't tell you.
She hints and hints , but if you don't get it
when she gets angry, she'll tell you straight, if you can catch it fine.
sometimes she don't wanna dance, she may just want a fling her and there,so wait.
otherwise, there are many fishes in the sea.

At tier 1 I see flow, I check whats my blotter direction,
what did big orders do, how often they are hitting me.
where are the ducks, how large are they piling.
But as trader you cannot see flow, so watch the pips move, it should tell you.

 

[ExpertTrader]

Last Words from me before market Open :
=======================================

DON'T HOPE. <=== biggest trader's mistake

GO WITH THE FLOW.

MARKET HAS ITS NATURE AND STRUCTURE.

WE ARE THE PASSIVE FOLLOWERS.

UNDERSTAND THE 'OTHER SIDE'.

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