HFMarkets (hfm.com): Market analysis services.

[HFM]

Date : 6th April 2023.

Market Update – April 6 – Eyes on Jobs.

While Friday’s jobs report is the near term focus, attention is already turning to CPI on April 12.

USD wobbled initially and stumbled to 101.4 on the data, but recovered to close at 101.75. Another data miss, a further drop in bonds. Treasuries rallied further after weaker ISM services and ADP numbers added to expectations for a slowing economy that will keep the FOMC hawks grounded, if not in May, then in June. The combination of risk aversion, reduced expectations for Fed tightening, short covering, and technicals all helped propel the move. Wall Street was mixed all session & Asian equities declined following the US lower as investors switched their focus to the prospect of a recession. German industrial production surged 2.0% m/m in February, adding to signs that activity has strengthened, and that Germany will escape a technical recession! UK house prices rose unexpectedly in March.

Overnight – China & HK reopened but the regions stocks also remained heavy ahead of Easter Weekend. – Chinese Services PMI grew strongly, the AUD trade balance was better than expected but weighed on AUD & NZD.

• FX – USDIndex ranging 101.11-101.29. EUR and GBP are weaker but steady above 1.0900 and 1.2450 respectively. JPY also lost some ground against USD rebounding to 131.50.
• 
• Stocks – US100 dropped -1.07%, while the US500 fell -0.25%, with the US30 rising 0.24%. Western Alliance Bancorp shares have fallen further today, dropping some -17% following an update on its Q1 financials yesterday on a lack of details. Losses are being pared slightly after just releasing further information on its deposits, noting total deposits declined to $47.6 bln in Q1 from $53.6 bln to end Q4. It is slated to announce its earnings on April 18 after the close.
• Commodities – USOil is sideways between $79-$80.
• Gold – prices have slipped to $2012 from $2032, but the contract is holding above $2000 after breaking that barrier yesterday (closing basis) for the first time since March 2022.
• Cryptocurrencies – BTC flat at $28k.
• 

Today – US Jobless Claims, Canadian Employment data & Speech from the Fed’s key Hawk – Bullard.

Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) NZDJPY (+0.52%). On EU open rebounded from 82.42 but holds well below PP. MAs reversed but not bullishly crossed yet, while MACD & RSI remain negative.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date : 7th April 2023.

Market Update – April 7 – Stocks & Dollar Higher Ahead of Jobs Day.

Trading was cautious heading into the March jobs report and the Easter holidays. Most global markets will be closed on Good Friday, with much of Europe also shut for Easter Monday. Wall Street will not trade today, but the Treasury market will be open for an abbreviated session due to the employment report. The USD recovered from lows, Stocks closed a tad higher and Yields slipped again (US 10-yr at 3.288%). Gold tested down to $2,000 before settling a $2007.82, & USOil closed at $80.70.

Overnight: Japan – February household spending (weaker) +1.6% vs +4.3% & Leading Indicator Index rises to 97.7 vs 96.5 last time.

• FX – USDIndex slipped to 101.06 yesterday and remains below 102.00 today at 101.50. EUR slipped under 1.0900 yesterday but trades at 1.0920 now. JPY found a floor at 131.00 this week but remains under 132.00 for a fourth day. Sterling’s decline from the key 125.00 holds at 1.2440, next support 1.2425.
• Stocks – US markets, closed mixed led by tech stocks yesterday (+0.76% to -0.03%) #US500 closed at 4105 – US500 FUTS also higher at 4128.

• Commodities – USOil – Futures held the key $80.00 and a new equilibrium following the OPEC production cut last weekend. Gold – tested into $2000 once again, before settling a $2007.82
• Cryptocurrencies – BTC continues to rotate at what is becoming the key $28k again.

Today – Most trading Centres closed for Good Friday, US NonFarm Payrolls

Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) AUDJPY (+0.31%). Broken a 3-day fall from a test of the 90.00 zone earlier in the week, recovering 88.00 today. MAs aligning higher, MACD histogram & signal line turning positive & rising, RSI 59.35 & rising, H1 ATR 0.103, Daily ATR 1.089.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date : 10th April 2023.

Market Update – April 10 – USD Recovers, JPY awaits Ueda.

US Payrolls on Friday were a near bullseye, with a 236k rise in March after -17k in revisions, though there was a skewing of weakness toward the goods sector. We saw the expected 0.3% hourly earnings rise that left a 4.2% y/y gain. The jobless rate fell to 3.50% from 3.57%, leaving the rate still above the 54-year low of 3.43% in January, with hefty gains of 577k for civilian employment and 480k for the labour force, while the labour force participation rate rose to a new a 3-year high of 62.6% from a prior high of 62.5%. However, there was a further drop in the workweek to 34.4 in March that fueled a -0.1% drop in the hours-worked index after small downward revisions. Overall, it raises expectations of a 25 bp hike from the Fed on May 3rd.

Overnight: Japan – March consumer confidence index 33.9 vs 31.1 prior

• FX – USDIndex slipped under 101.50 on Friday and remains below 102.00 today at 101.85. EUR remains at 1.0900 today, having spiked down to 1.0875 on the NFP data. JPY breached 132.00 on Friday and holds 132.60 ahead of Gov. Ueda. Sterling’s decline from the key 1.2500 tests 1.2400 today.
• Stocks – US markets, closed mixed led by tech stocks on Thursday (+0.76% to -0.03%) #US500 closed at 4105 – US500 FUTS touched 4145 on Friday but are lower today at 4127. Q1 Earnings Season kicks off with the big Wall Street Banks this week.

• Commodities – USOil – Futures hold the key $80.00 and even breached $81.00 briefly earlier following the OPEC production cut last weekend. Gold – broke below the vital $2000, testing into support at $1987, before recovering to $1995.
• Cryptocurrencies – BTC slipped to $27.7k, recovered the key $28k and tests $28.4k today.

Today – Most trading Centres remain closed for Easter Monday, Speeches from new BOJ Governor Ueda, & Fed’s Williams.



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) USDJPY (+0.49%). A 3-day rally from under 131.00 continues testing 132.75 resistance today. MAs aligned higher, MACD histogram & signal line positive & rising, RSI 62.00 & rising, H1 ATR 0.191, Daily ATR 1.310.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date : 11th April 2023.

Market Update – April 11 – Stocks & USD Mixed as Inflation & Earnings Loom.

Trading Leveraged Products is risky

US #stockmarkets closed mixed – Industrials higher – Tech lower (#Samsung said they will cut chip production – lifting Western Digital & Micron +8%). USD continued to recover, (USDIndex topped at 102.50), Treasuries slipped again (10 yr 3.41%) and #BTC breached $30k for the first time in 10mths. In the Asian session stocks are higher (ASX +1.3% after Easter break & Nikkei +1.4% after a Dovish outlook from new BOJ Governor Ueda & Buffet said he was planning to add to his Japanese investments. AUD is outperforming.

Overnight Data Chinese #CPI cooled to 0.7% from 1.0% and missed expectations, and #PPI fell further remaining significantly deflationary at -2.5% from -1.4%

• FX – USDIndex rallied to 102.50 yesterday and hold at 102.00 today. EUR tested down to 1.0850 but is back to test 1.0900 today. JPY breached 133.00 yesterday & rallied to 133.88 as BOJ Governor Ueda, confirmed there will be no immediate policy change from the BOJ. Sterling’s decline from the key 1.2500 stalled at 1.2350 and now trades back at 1.2400 today.
• Stocks – US markets closed mixed (+0.30% to -0.03%) after a very weak open. #US500 closed at 4109 – US500 FUTS are higher today at 4140. Q1 Earnings Season kicks off with the big Wall Street Banks on Friday & FRC today.

• Commodities – USOil – Futures tested under the key $80.00 level but holds at $80.50 now. Gold – tests the vital $2000, level again today having been as low as $1982, yesterday.
• Cryptocurrencies – BTC rallied over 8% from the $28k level and breached $30k earlier today spiking to $30.7k on speculation that interest rates may have peaked. Additionally, a major revamp to the Ethereum ($1.917k) blockchain is due this week “that is set to allow them to gain access to more than $33 billion of ether currency. Dubbed Shapella, the software upgrade will let market players redeem their “staked ether” – coins they have deposited and locked up on the network over the past three years in return for interest.” – Reuters

Today – EZ Retail Sales and Sentix Index, EIA STEO, speeches from Fed’s Goolsbee & Harker. IMF Meetings Continue. Earnings – First Republic (#FRC), which was hit hard by client withdrawals in the aftermath of Silicon Valley Bank’s collapse.

Biggest FX Mover @ (07:00 GMT) AUDUSD (+0.46%). Rallied from under 0.6620 yesterday to test 0.6680 today. MAs aligned higher, MACD histogram & signal line positive & rising, RSI 61.00 & rising, H1 ATR 0.00092, Daily ATR 0.00701.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date : 12th April 2023.

Market Update – April 12 – All eyes on US Inflation & FOMC Minutes.

US #stockmarkets closed mixed again and Asian markets are flat ahead of US CPI print at 12:30 GMT today. USD has slipped again as EUR & AUD outperform. Treasuries recovered a tad (10-yr at 3.434%), #Gold hits $2,020 #USOil moves to $81.50 despite inventory build and #BTC holds onto $30k level. Fed’s Harker the “Fed may soon be done” and Goolsbee the Fed “needs to be careful about raising rates too aggressively in its efforts to tame inflation”, turned more Dovish. Kashkari remained Hawkish, “would be much worse for jobs if we failed to get inflation down”. CME Fed Futures still have a 69% chance of 25 bp interest rate hike in May. A hold from June ??

Overnight Data Japanese #PPI cooled to 7.2% from 8.3% but remains very elevated and #Machine Orders declined significantly (-4.5%) but not as badly as expected (-6.4%) from 9.5%.

• FX – USDIndex declined to 101.65 and remains anchored below 102.00 today. EUR holds over 1.0900 today and trades at 1.0925. JPY breached 134.00 today from a test back to 133.00 yesterday. Sterling holds over 1.2400 at 1.2425.
• Stocks – US markets closed mixed again with Tech underperforming (+0.29% to -0.43%). #US500 closed at 4109 – US500 FUTS are lower today at 4134 from 4150 yesterday. Q1 Earnings Season kicks off with the big Wall Street Banks on Friday. #CARMAX rose 7% following stronger results.

• Commodities – USOil – Futures tested $81.50 level today despite private API inventories showing weaker demand as a build for both gasoline and petroleum products was recorded. Official EIA inventories today. Gold – tests the $2020, level again today having been as low as $1998, yesterday.
• Cryptocurrencies – BTC holds the $30k level spiking to $30.5k earlier. Binance also suspended TRON & Spell as TRON founder Justin Sun was arrested in Hong Kong (also wanted in the US).

Today – US CPI, BoC Rate Decision, FOMC Minutes, speeches from ECB’s Lagarde and de Guindos, BoE’s Bailey (x2), Fed’s Barkin and Daly. Earnings – LVMH

Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) EURJPY (+0.16%). Continued to rally from under 143.00 last week to test 146.35 today. MAs aligned higher, MACD histogram & signal line positive & rising, RSI 61.00 & rising, H1 ATR 0.187, Daily ATR 1.526.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date : 13th April 2023.

Market Update – April 13 – CPI & FED “One more hike & done?”

The US CPI report was good news for bulls as it suggests the FOMC can start easing off the brakes, though this is not likely in May (69% chance of another hike). Some market participants believe one more 25bp and they will be done, others remain Hawkish and that moving CORE CPI & CPE from the 5% to the 3-2% range will prove problematic and this could mean hikes in May and June too.

FOMC minutes showed considerable discussions over the banking turmoil, as indicated in Chair Powell’s press conference. The “banking sector” was the literally the lead paragraph of the report and was mentioned 24 times overall, compared to zero in February. There was some overall softening in outlooks, which also “increased the already-high level of uncertainty associated with the outlooks on economic activity.” However, ultimately “all” participants supported the 25 bp rate hike. A mild recession is expected from the FOMC.

The Bank of Canada left its target rate at 4.50%, as expected, unchanged from March after the 25 bp tightening in January. But it was a “hawkish” pause as inflation and economic activity have not really evolved as expected. CAD gained on the news.

Volatility dominated the newsflow yesterday. USD dived and remains pressured, EUR, Sterling & AUD all benefitted. US Stocks markets all closed lower, and this fed through to mixed Asian markets and European & US Futures. Treasury markets caught an extra bid and yields finished lower, led by the 2-year’s 6.5 bp slide to 3.958% & the 10-year’s +3.5 bp to 3.395%, remaining 56 bp inverted. Gold and Oil both benefited from a weaker USD and BTC continues to hold at $30k.

Overnight Data China March Trade – big beat – (USD) Exports +14.8% y/y (expected -7.1%) & Imports -1.4% y/y (expected -6.4%). AUD Jobs beat (53k vs 20k), Unemployment (3.5% vs 3.6%) & CPI (4.6% vs 5.3%) both fell significantly too. German Final CPI in line at 7.8% and UK GDP (Feb) missed again (0.0% vs 0.1% & 0.4%) last time.

• FX – USDIndex declined to test April lows at 101.05 and remains anchored well below 102.00 today at 101.20. EUR spiked to 1.1000 yesterday and again today and trades at 1.0988. The 2023 high is 1.1032. JPY dived from 134.00, tested below 133.00 and trades at 133.25 now. Sterling rallied from 1.2400 but remains under the key 1.2500 once again at 1.2490.
• Stocks – US markets closed lower (-0.11% to -0.85%) as the rate sensitive Tech sector led the declines once again. #US500 closed down 17pts. at 4091. – US500 FUTS are also lower today at 4124 from highs of 4177 yesterday. #LVMH rallied after surging sales in China.

• Commodities – USOil – Futures have tested the $83.50 level today despite official EIA inventories showing weaker demand as a build (+0.6m vs -1.0m and -3.7m last week) for both gasoline and petroleum products was recorded. Gold – has broken the $2020, level again today having been to a low of $2001, and a high of $2028 yesterday.
• Cryptocurrencies – BTC holds the $30k level spiking to $30.4k and $29.6k extremes yesterday.

Today – EZ Industrial Production, US PPI, US Weekly Claims, OPEC MOMR, speeches from BoC’s Macklem, BoE’s Pill.

Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) AUDJPY (+0.38%). Continued to rally from under 88.00 on Monday to test 89.50 today. MAs aligned higher, MACD histogram & signal line positive & rising, RSI 63.00 & rising, H1 ATR 0.187, Daily ATR 1.526.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date : 14th April 2023.

Market Update – April 14 – Stocks rally, USD tumbles, FED to stall?

Stock trading screens turned green yesterday after cooler than expected PPI (-0.5% vs 0.0) and a bigger than expected increase in jobless claims (239k vs 228k)helped propel Wall Street to better than 1% gains. The NASDAQ surged 1.99% to top the 12,000 level again. The US500 jumped 1.33% and has been over the 4,000 mark for an eleventh straight session. The US30 was up 1.14% to top 34,000 for the first time since mid-February. Treasuries closed in the red 10yr at 3.44% and the curved is now 52 pts inverted. USD continues to decline and trades at 12-mth lows, EURUSD over 1.1070 this morning and Sterling trades at 1.2540. Asian markets cautious & flat (save NIKKEI +1.1%) & European FUT’s are firmer ahead of US bank earnings, Retail Sales and UoM Consumer Sentiment.

Overnight Data Singapore’s central bank sprang the surprise of the Asian day by halting its tightening cycle, markets were expecting more restraint. Singapore joins Canada & Australia, India & South Korea to press the pause button. They also issued a gloomy outlook.

• FX – USDIndex declined further to 100.50 and 12-mth lows and a third consecutive week of declines. EUR spiked to 1.1070 earlier and holds the bid. JPY dived from 133.00 and is testing 132.00 now. Sterling rallied to breach 1.2500 and holds this key level.
• Stocks – US markets closed with strong gains across all sectors (1.14% to 1.99%) as the rate sensitive Tech sector led the rally. #US500 closed +54 pts. at 4146. – US500 FUTS are also higher today at 4167 having tested the resistance at 4175 again. #AMZN & #NFLX gained over 4% each and #GOOG, #MSFT & #TSLA over 2% each.

• Commodities – USOil – Futures cooled from weekly highs at $83.50 to $82.30 today. Gold – holds over the $2040, level today having been to a low of $2015 yesterday. Next major resistance sits at $2050.
• Cryptocurrencies – BTC holds the $30k level spiking to $30.8k today.

Today – US Retail Sales, US Industrial Production, US Uni. of Michigan Prelim. Survey, speeches from Fed’s Waller, BoE’s Tenreyro, Earnings from UnitedHealth, JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, Citigroup, BlackRock.

Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) EURAUD (+0.32%). Continued to rally from under 1.6260 yesterday to test 1.6340 today. MAs aligned higher, MACD histogram & signal line negative but rising, RSI 55.00 & rising, H1 ATR 0.00161, Daily ATR 0.01377.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date : 17th April 2023.

Market Update – April 17- Expectations of FED May hike increase lifting USD.

Trading Leveraged Products is risky

There is now (CME marketwatch) an 83% chance of a 25 bp FED HIKE in May, from 74% on Friday, as mixed US data (a Big miss fro Retail Sales, and minor beats for Ind. Production & Consumer Sentiment) saw USD rally 1 big number from 12-mth lows, & GOLD crash below $2000. US Stocks closed lower (-0.35% to -0.72%) despite big Earnings beats from the Banks, JPM +7.6%, but Boeing tanked -5.6% as fault from supplier Spirit (-20.7%) halted deliveries of 737 MAX. Asian markets were higher (Nikkei hit a 6-week high) to start the week before cooling.

Weekend (IMF Meeting) & Overnight Data – Ueda had more dovish comments, Yellen said bank credit tightening could be a substitute for further Fed rate hikes, Lagarde warned of a “narrow path” for global economic recovery and Dimon expects rates to be “higher for longer”. NZD Performance Services Index misses at 54.4 vs. 55.8 but Food Inflation cooled to 0.8% from 1.5% & China’s New Home prices rose at their fastest pace in 21 months.

• FX – USDIndex bounced from under 100.50 and 12-mth lows over 100 pips to 101.50 but still registered a seventh consecutive week of declines and trades at 101.25 now. EUR declined from 1.1075 to 1.0970 and trades at 1.0990 now testing 1.1000. JPY tested 132.00 on Friday before rallying to over 134.00 today. Sterling rallied to breach 1.2545 on Friday before declining under 1.2400 earlier but trades at 1.2415 now.
• Stocks – US markets closed down across all sectors (-0.35% to -0.72%) as the rate sensitive Tech sector led the rally. #US500 closed -8.58 pts. at 4137. – US500 FUTS are flat today at 4169 having been as high as 4188 on Friday and above the key resistance at 4175. #CITI, +4.8% & #Blackrock +3.1%.

• Commodities – USOil – Futures continue to rotate around $82.50 today. Gold – tanked from a test of the $2050, level on Friday to under $1995. The key metal is back over $2000 today and trades at $2010.
• Cryptocurrencies – BTC holds under the $30k level today from a brief spike over $31k on Friday.

Today – Empire State Manu. Index – speeches from BOE’s Cunliffe, ECB’s Lagarde and Bundesbank’s Nagel.

Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) AUDJPY (+0.31%). Continued to rally and is now 7 days higher from under 88.00 to test 90.00 once again today. MAs aligned higher, MACD histogram & signal line positive & rising, RSI 58.65 & rising, H1 ATR 0.155, Daily ATR 0.9200.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date : 18th April 2023.

Market Update – April 18 – USD Holds Gains, Chinese GDP & UK Jobs Spike.

The USD cooled from a 2-day rally despite strong Empire State Manufacturing Index, Stocks closed flat and Yields (10yr 3.591%) held onto gains. Overnight strong Chinese data (GDP hit 4.5% in Q1 vs 4.0% & 2.9%), Retail Sales were 10.6% from 3.5% and Unemployment fell to 5.3% from 5.6%. UK Jobs beat (28.2k new jobs vs -11.2k last time, Earnings continue to be very hot at 5.9% vs 5.7%, Unemployment was 1 tick higher at 3.8% too adding to the bid on Sterling and increasing chatter of stagflation in the UK and pressure on the BOE to act again. Asian markets are also subdued despite Chinese data. Us Futures hold at recent highs.

• FX – USDIndex rallied to 101.90 and trades at a previous intra-day key pivot level at 101.65. EUR declined further to 1.0910 rejecting 1.1000. Today 1.0950 remains immediate resistance. JPY pushed higher again and breached 134.50 briefly today. Sterling moved down to 1.2355 lows yesterday but is testing back to 1.2400 today following the UK jobs data.
• Stocks – US markets closed flat but positive across all sectors (0.28% to 0.33%) #US500 closed +13.68 pts. at 4151. – US500 FUTS are higher today at 4177 and above the key resistance at 4175. #SST -9.18%, MRNA -8.36%, Roblox -12.01%. #GOOGL -2.66% (Rumour that Samsung is to use Bing, not Google for searches) Musk; latest to announce investment into to new AI platform to rival ChatGPT.

• Commodities – USOil – Futures declined into $80.30 yesterday but has recovered to $81.00 day. Gold – continued to slip, testing $1982, before recovering the key $2000 today
• Cryptocurrencies – BTC declined from the $30k level yesterday to $29K and back to $29.6k today.

Today – German ZEW, US Housing Starts/Building Permits, Canadian CPI, Fed Discount Rate Minutes, Speeches from Fed’s Bowman, BOC’s Macklem & Rogers, ECB’s Elderson. Earnings from Ericsson (beat), United Airlines, JNJ, Netflix, Goldman Sachs & BofA.

Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) AUDUSD (+0.59%). Rallied from a decline to 0.6680 yesterday to test 0.6740 today, 0.6750 and 0.6780 next resistance areas. MAs aligned higher, MACD histogram & signal line positive & rising, RSI 66.50 & rising, H1 ATR 0.00090, Daily ATR 0.00751.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date : 19th April 2023.

Market Update – April 19 – USD Holds gains , UK CPI very hot.

The USD rotated (USDIndex at 101.50) as Bonds lead with Yields higher too. Expectations for a 25 bp May Fed rate hike continued to rise on more hawkish Fedspeak, Bullard even talked of two more 25bp after May, Bostic sees 25bp in May and then a pause for the rest of the year. Stocks closed flat, BoA and J&J big beats, GS strong EPS but revenue missed. After hours Netflix missed subscriber numbers and shares tanked -12% on poor Q2 outlook – but full year offered better numbers and the losses were reversed completely. ECB’s Lane sees 3 more hikes for the common currency area and remains Hawkish, despite talk of FED pause.

Overnight strong UK CPI disappointed, headline missed and remained over 10% at 10.1%, the key CORE number is 3 x times the BoE target at 6.2%, RPI 13.5% and the Food & Non-Alcoholic Component a staggering 19.2%. Service Inflation also rose to 5.7%

• FX – USDIndex rotates at 101.50, EUR holds through 1.0970 and JPY pushes higher again breaching 134.50. Sterling got a big boost from the inflation data and trades at 1.2470.
• Stocks – US markets closed flat again (-0.04% to 0.09%) #US500 closed +3.55 pts. at 4154. – US500 FUTS are at 4167 and below the key resistance at 4175.

• Commodities – USOil – Futures declined into $80.00 yesterday but has recovered to $80.40 day. Gold – continued to slip, testing $1986, before recovering to trade at $1994.0
• Cryptocurrencies – BTC rallied from the $30k level yesterday to $30.5k and back to $30.0k today.

Today – EZ HICP (Final), New Zealand CPI, Speeches from ECB’s Lane & Schnabel, Fed’s Goolsbee, BoE’s Mann, UK & US, Earnings from ASML, (big beat) Heineken, (beat) Just Eat (mixed), American Airlines, IBM, Tesla, Morgan Stanley.

Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) GBPJPY (+0.67%). Rallied from 0166.75 pre Inflation data to 167.65. MAs aligned higher, MACD histogram & signal line positive & rising, RSI 80.30, OB but still rising, H1 ATR 0.187 Daily ATR 1.34.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.