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HFM

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Date : 5th January 2022.

Market Update – January 5 – FOMC: Inflation still Public Enemy No. 1.


daily-market-update-696x364.png

The FOMC minutes continued to show inflation was the overriding concern. Participants generally noted that upside risks to the inflation outlook “remained a key factor” for policy. It was repeated that a restrictive stance would have to be maintained for a sustained period until inflation was “clearly” on a path toward 2%. US Data yesterday showed ISM Manufacturing PMI’s missing at 48.4, but Jobs Openings remaining very strong beating expectations at 10.46m. Kashkari called for 5.4% terminal rate.

  • The USD Index held 104.00 yesterday as the USD steadied post FOMC mins. 104.20 now.
  • EUR – back to test 1.0600. Germany November trade balance beats €10.8 billion vs €7.5 billion.
  • JPY – rallied from new 7-mth lows under 130.00 yesterday to 132.50 now
  • GBP – Sterling rallied to 1.2080 before sinking back to key 1.2000 today.
  • Stocks – The US markets closed up (+0.40-0.76%). US500 -28.03 (0.75%) at 3853. TSLA +5.12%, BABA +13%, MSFT -4.37%.
2023-01-05_09-28-03.jpg


  • USOil – Tanked –9% Monday, Tuesday ($72.75 lows) and has recovered 1.1% today to trade at $73.50 ahead of inventories later
  • Gold – Breached $1850 in early trades, rallied to $1860 and trades at $1850now.
  • BTC – Sentiment woes continue – the biggest coin trades at $16.8k today. FTX’s former top lawyer aided US authorities in Bankman-Fried case.
Today – EZ Construction PMI, UK and US Services and Composite Final PMIs, EZ PPI, US Challenger Layoffs, Canadian Trade Balance, US Claims, US EIA Inventories, speeches from Fed’s Bostic and Bullard.

2023-01-05_09-25-35.jpg


Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) EURAUD (-0.45%). Declined from 1.5660 pivot yesterday to test 1.5400, before recovering and rallying to test 1.5600 today. MAs aligned higher, MACD histogram & signal line positive and rising. RSI 52.00 & neutral, H1 ATR 0.00306, Daily ATR 0.01388.

2023-01-05_09-27-35.jpg


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer:
This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 
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HFM

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Date : 6th January 2022.

Market Update – January 6.


eu_update_1200x628-e1567669197104-696x339.png

Trading Leveraged Products is risky
It was another “good news is bad news” trade with better-than-expected labor market reports boosting fears over a higher for longer stance from the FOMC. Hawkish Fedspeak added to the selloffs in stocks and bonds but supported the Dollar. Wall Street closed over -1.0% in the red and just off the day’s lows. Treasury yields spiked, led by the front end as the curve inverted further to -74.2 bps versus -67.2 bps Wednesday and the most since December 15. Tweaks in Fed policy outlooks remain a major driver for the markets, as heading into the key nonfarm payroll report today.

  • The USD Index jumped above 105.00 and holds.
  • EUR – back to 1.0500 bottom. German manufacturing orders plunged -5.3% m/m in November. German retail sales rose 1.1% m/m in November, less than hoped in light of the Black Friday sales, which are a relatively new phenomenon in Germany.
  • JPY – has lifted to 134.20.
  • GBP – under pressure to 1.1890.
  • Stocks – The US100 dropped by -1.42%, with the US500 -1.16% and the US30 off -1.02%. Nearly all the S&P 500 sectors were in the red with the exception of energy. AAPL -1.06%, MSFT -2.96% & AMZN -2.37%.
2023-01-06_09-03-28.jpg


  • USOil – stuck at $73.80. Virus developments remained in focus and there is still speculation that China will add further support measures as the economy tries to cope with the impact of rising Covid-19 case numbers.
  • Gold – extended lower at $1832, after Putin ordered a holiday ceasefire in Ukraine from January 6-7. Bullion has fallen from an overnight peak of $1859.04.
    2023-01-06_09-02-45.jpg
Today: Markets are now waiting for US payroll numbers and Eurozone inflation data, which are hoped to give further indications on the monetary policy path on both sides of the Atlantic.

2023-01-06_12-04-13.jpg




Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) USDJPY (+0.73%). Above 134.00. MAs aligned higher, MACD histogram & signal line positive and rising. RSI 71 & neutral, H1 ATR 0.272, Daily ATR 1866.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer:
This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 

HFM

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Date : 9th January 2022.

Market Update – January 9 – USD Index falls 9% from peaks.


eu_update_1200x628-e1567669197104-696x339.png

Trading Leveraged Products is risky
Treasury and Wall Street soared on the heels of the NFP data where the net effect is a tempering in Fed rate hike expectations. The markets are cheering the cooling in wage growth and a softer but still resilient labor market. The erosion in the service sector is a bit ominous but adds to the belief that the FOMC will soften its stance with a 25-50 bp hike on February 1 following the 50 bp tightening in December.

The jump in the workforce and easing wage growth & further signs of an economy slowing down with services contracting for the first time in more than 2-1/2 years in December = US economy recession, & Fed on its hiking path but no need to do too much!

  • The USD Index falls 9% from peaks. It drifted to 103.23 from 105.40 on Friday after the NFP. Fed funds futures are suggesting a 4.958% terminal rate in June.
  • China’s re-opening of its borders – could add further pressure on USD.
  • EUR – spiked to nearly 1.0700.
  • JPY – slightly higher today at 132.16 from 131.20 bottom.
  • GBP – gaining 0.42% to 1.2166, after spiking 1.5% on Friday.
  • Stocks – The US markets surged. US500 +2.28% and USA100 +2.56%. APPL +3.68%, AMZN +3.56%, MSFT +1.18%.
  • Treasury yields dove, led by the short end as the market priced out the more hawkish Fed bets. The 2-year rate plunged 20 bps to a low of 4.243%.
  • 2023-01-09_09-06-40.jpg
  • USOil – rose after Chinese announcement. Today trades at $75.30.
  • Gold – reversed 60% from 2022 downleg. Breached $1880.
  • BTC – rise to 17166.23.
Today – Fed’s Bostic and BOE’s Pill speak, Japan’s PM Kishida meets with France’s President Macron, Eurozone unemployment. Earnings season kicks off this week with the major US banks.
2023-01-09_09-11-39.jpg


Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) AUDUSD (+0.78%). Trade-and-China sensitive AUD up to 0.6945 today. MAs flattened but MACD histogram & signal line remain positive and rising. RSI 67 but turns slightly lower, H1 ATR 0.00166, Daily ATR 0.0096.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer:
This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 

HFM

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Date : 10th January 2022.

Market Update – January 10 – Wall Street in a dangerous game ahead of Powell, CPI, earnings.


eu_update_pic_nov18-1-696x391.jpg

Treasuries remained firm, yields finished off of their lows. Wall Street turned mixed in the afternoon after the US30 and US500 shed their advances. Hawkish Fedspeak from Bostic and Daly generated some cold feet and subsequent profit taking ahead of Fed Chair Powell’s comments later. The advent of $90 bln in coupon supply also weighed a bit.

The FOMC minutes warned that an “unwarranted easing in financial conditions” would complicate the Fed’s efforts to bring down inflation, and the big rally in bonds and stocks in recent sessions is not what the FOMC wants to see. Already there has been some push back from Daly and Bostic regarding boosting rates over 5%. Will Powell feel compelled to oppose market rallies?

  • The USDIndex remained weak on the softer outlook on the FOMC, falling to a low of 102.94, though it closed at 103.19.
  • EUR – steady above 1.0700.
  • JPY – hovering around 132.10.
  • GBP – closed above 20-day SMA, retesting 1.2200.
  • Stocks – The US100 was up 0.63% at the close as tech found support from China’s reopening plays. The US30 dropped -0.34% and the US500 was off -0.08%. Wall Street is in the green with gains of about 1.5% to 2.4% for the year-to-date. The US500 is over 9.4% above its October low.
2023-01-10_08-59-57.jpg
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  • USOil – 2.8% higher at $75.85 per barrel and Brent up 2.4% at $80.46. Optimism over China’s economic re-opening has been supportive, boosting demand expectations. China announced more financial support to households and governments in a bid to revive the economy.
  • Gold – slightly lower at $1871 from $1881.
Today – Speeches: BoJ’s Kuroda, ECB’s Schnabel, BoC Governor Macklem and Fed’s Chair Powell.

2023-01-10_09-47-01.jpg


Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) EURAUD (+0.24%). Spiked by 41 pips at the EU open. MAs slightly higher, MACD histogram & signal line remain positive and rising. RSI 68 but flattened, H1 ATR 0.0028, Daily ATR 0.01406.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer:
This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 

HFM

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Date : 11th January 2022.

Market Update – January 11 – Dollar stands still ahead of Thursday’s CPI.


daily-market-update-696x364.png

Treasuries were more unidirectional while Yields have crept higher led by the long end. The curve has bear steepened to -65.6 bps from -68 bps Monday and -74 bps before Friday’s data. Wall Street was very choppy, trading either side of unchanged, after a positive opening. Chair Powell did not comment on policy matters in his Riksbank remarks. But Governor Bowman echoed hawkish comments from others of late. Gains had been shed as the market is pushed and pulled by crosscurrents of Fed policy dynamics, recession uncertainties, and upcoming earnings reports. Stock markets moved higher in Japan and Australia, the latter helped by stronger than expected retail sales numbers, which helped to balance the uptick in inflation that sparked fresh rate hike bets.



2023-01-11_09-26-55.jpg
2023-01-11_09-27-38.jpg


  • The USDIndex bounced to 103.35 from a low of 103.03, adding to some of the volatility in stocks.
  • EUR – ranging between 1.0700 – 1.0760.
  • JPY – neutral, hovering around 132.30
  • GBP – holds Friday’s gains. Range at 1.2110 – 1.2210.
  • Stocks – The US100, US30 and US500 are fractionally higher with +1.01%, +0.56% and +0.7% respectively. US100 remains stuck in the 10800-11400 range. Note the fact we are getting tighter and tighter inside the triangle like formation. The 100-day SMA and the negative trend line are the big resistance levels to watch, while 10800 is the “must hold” level.
15f3f1f9d65323b849e38ea91811d6db.png


  • USOil – fell by -0.48% to $74.66 per barrel and down from the $80.26 to end 2022.
  • Gold – up at $1884.60.
Today – Crude Oil Inventories & New Zealand Building Permits.

2023-01-11_09-22-29.jpg


Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) XAGUSD (+1.46%). Spiked to R2: 23.93. MAs slightly higher, MACD histogram & signal line are close to zero. RSI 63 but flattened, H1 ATR 0.094, Daily ATR 0.589.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer:
This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 

HFM

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Date : 12th January 2022.

Market Update – January 12 – Inflation Day.


daily-market-update-696x364.png

Stock market sentiment remains supported ahead of the US inflation report, with markets starting to look past the current wave of tightening moves and buying into hopes that final rates will be reached sooner rather than later this year. Yields have come down and stocks are benefiting. Australia and New Zealand bonds bounced today with yields stabilizing after being pushed up by stronger than expected local inflation data yesterday.

  • The USDIndex is tumbling, between 102.60-103.20 for a 3rd consecutive day.
  • EUR – rallied to 7-month low to 1.0777.
  • JPY – got a boost today on speculation about a BOJ stimulus tweak heading into next week’s policy meeting. Currently traded at 131.80 amid wider strength in the Yen.
  • GBP – reversed from 1.2170.
  • Stocks – US indices are up since yesterday amid bets that a mitigation in the pace of US consumer price gains will allow the Federal Reserve to dial back the pace of its rate hikes. The US100 spiked to 11489, breaking 50 DMA, US30 to 34134 and US500 to 3994. GER40 and UK100 futures are posting gains of 0.2% and 0.3% respectively.
2023-01-12_09-36-24.jpg
2023-01-12_09-36-33.jpg


  • USOil – it’s been a rollercoaster for oil, having climbed over $77 on optimism on China’s reopening. It then fell to below $76 on the huge build in inventories, but then managed to extend gains above $78. That is the third large weekly increase on record (dating back to 1982), and a big miss from analyst expectations for a small decline.
  • Gold – steady below $1885.
Today – US Inflation release.

2023-01-12_09-39-00.jpg


Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) ETHUSD (+4.62%). Spiked to 1417.35, breaking W-pattern neckline at 1353. Fast MAs & RSI flattened but MACD histogram & signal lines remain positive. H1 ATR 13.75, Daily ATR 37.86.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer:
This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 

HFM

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Date : 13th January 2022.

Market Update – January 13 – CPI as advertised, USD sank!


daily-market-update-696x364.png

The December CPI report came in as advertised, indeed even better than expected for the headline. Treasuries saw strong gains, while there were more moderate gains on Wall Street. Overall inflation continues to come down & Fed Harker & Bullard comments boosted expectations the FOMC will further downshift rate hikes with a 25 bp increase seen in February. Yields dropped measurably. Futures markets have priced in 25 bp and several rate cuts this year.

  • The USDIndex slumped to 101.79 yesterday. Today eased at 102.00.
  • EUR – held above 1.0800.
  • JPY – rallies to 7-month high as JGB yields also remain on bid on the anticipation of a potential policy shift. Nikkei down by 1.3%. USDJPY down by 2.7% last night.
  • Reuters: A newspaper report flagging the possibility of more flexibility has redoubled bets on a coming shift out of ultra-easy policy that seeks to pin yields near zero.
  • GBP – settled at 1.2200. UK GDP rose 0.1% in November. Figures showed that in the three months to the end of November, the economy shrank by 0.3%. If two consecutive quarters of contraction are confirmed then that could count as a recession.
2023-01-13_09-32-39.jpg


  • Stocks – Wall Street rallied too, with the US30 and US100 up 0.64%, and the US500 0.34% firmer. Strength in energy supported.
  • USOil held above $78.
  • Gold – retests $1900.
  • BTC surged 5% to break above $19,000.
Today – University of Michigan sentiment. Earnings: Bank of America, Citigroup, JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, BlackRock and Delta Air Lines.

2023-01-13_09-32-10.jpg
Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) NZDJPY (-0.93%). Plummets to 81.95, from 84.36 high yesterday. Fast MAs aligned lower & RSI at 17, MACD histogram & signal lines extended lower. H1 ATR 0.203, Daily ATR 1.157.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer:
This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 

HFM

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Date : 17th January 2023.

Market Update – January 17 – USD Holds at 7-mth lows, Mixed data from China & UK.


eu_update_1200x628-e1567669197104-696x339.png

Trading Leveraged Products is risky

Chinese GDP for 2022 at 3.0% missed expectations (5.5%) significantly and represented the slowest growth for the world’s second largest economy since 1976 and the end of the austerity of Mao Zedong. Q4 GDP beat expectations at 2.9% vs 1.8% but was still very weak. Retail Sales & Unemployment also beat at -1.8% vs. -9.5% and 5.5% vs. 5.8%, respectively. Japanese 10-yr yields still trade over the 0.50% above the BOJ ceiling ahead of BOJ tomorrow. The UK Jobs market remains v tight (Unemployment 3.7%) – Earnings up (6.4% vs 6.1%) but still way short of Inflation. (CPI & Retails Sales data tomorrow). German HICP inflation confirmed & unchanged at 9.6%.

  • The USD Index recovered from under 102.00 at 101.70, to 102.15 now.
  • EUR – holds over 1.0800. The pair touched 1.0875 on Monday (9-mth highs) and trades back to 1.0820 now.
  • JPY – dipped again touching 127.20 lows, but is now back over 128.00 and has tested 128.80 today.
  • GBP – Sterling tested 1.2290, slipped back to 1.2160 lows and has recovered 1.2200 following the UK data.
  • Stocks – The US markets closed higher on Friday (+0.33-0.71%), following generally good Banking Earnings, tempered by cautious outlooks and job losses. US500 FUTS trade at 4002.
  • USOil – rallied again to test $80.00 lbut has since slipped to $79.00 following the Chinese data.
  • Gold – the Bid remains strong as $1900 holds, and $1930 was tested yesterday, the precious metal is back to $1910 now.
  • BTC – Weak USD helps to lift prices over $20k and holds over $21k today.
Today – Canadian CPI, Speeches from Fed’s Williams, ECB’s Centeno & Chinese Vice Premier Liu. Earnings – Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley & United Airlines.

2023-01-17_09-48-58.jpg
2023-01-17_09-49-22.jpg


Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) CHFJPY (+0.53%). Bounced from a test of 137.50 zone on Friday and adds to gains today at 139.20 but is down from 149.00 highs in December. MAs aligned higher, MACD histogram & signal line positive & rising. RSI 66.80 & rising, H1 ATR 0.230, Daily ATR 1.856.

2023-01-17_09-53-16.jpg


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer:
This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 

HFM

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Date : 18th January 2023.

Market Update – January 18 – BOJ Sticks to Accommodative Policy – YEN Dives.


daily-market-update-696x364.png

BOJ keeps YCC policy unchanged, Kuroda “will not hesitate to increase easing if necessary”. DOVISH !! – Downgraded economic forecasts – Growth 2023 – 1.7% vs. 1.9% & 2024 1.1% vs. 1.5%. Inflation forecast raised to 1.8% vs. 1.6%. YEN tanked (USDJPY +2.6% at one point). Bonds rallied, the 10-yr JGB dropped to 0.36% from 0.52% yesterday. US Stock markets were mixed (DOW -1.14%, Nasdaq +0.14%) as Goldman Sachs Earnings disappointed. Asia markets and European FUTS also mixed. UK CPI confirmed at 10.5% (CORE CPI 6.3%)down from 10.7% in November but still at 40-year highs.

  • The USD Index recovered from under 102.00 at 101.70, to 102.60 following BoJ, back to 102.10 now.
  • EUR – holds back over 1.0800, following 1.0760 lows earlier and a rejection of this weeks high at 1.0870.
  • JPY – Lows on Monday were 127.20 as speculation peaked, the Dovish “no change” outlook from Kuroda took the pair to 131.60 highs today. Back to 130.25 now.
  • GBP – Sterling has breached 1.2300, following the CPI data and currently trades at 1.2325, a 23-day high.
  • Stocks – The US markets were weak into close (-1.14% to +0.14%). Mixed news from Banks – GS -6.44%, MS +5.91%, TSLA +7.43%, RBLX +11.77% US500 FUTS trade at 4017.
2023-01-18_09-27-40.jpg


  • USOil – rallied again to test $81.00 following inventories and 2023 outlook upgrades.
  • Gold – declined from $1930 highs on Monday to test $1900 today as USD lifts.
  • BTC – Continues to hold over $20k this week and over $21k again today.
Today – US Retail Sales, PPI & Industrial Production, Speeches from Fed’s Bostic, Bullard, Harker & Logan,. Earnings – Charles Schwab, Prologis & Kinder Morgan.

2023-01-18_09-26-10.jpg
2023-01-18_09-26-34.jpg


Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) NZDJPY (+2.71%). Bounced from a test of 81.00 zone on Friday and adds to gains today at 84.80 highs. Following the Dovish BOJ. MAs aligned higher, MACD histogram & signal line positive & rising. RSI 75.36, OB & rising, H1 ATR 0.354, Daily ATR 1.301.

2023-01-18_09-55-34.jpg



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer:
This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 

HFM

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Date : 19th January 2023.

Market Update – January 19 – Stocks sink, USD rises after weak data & JPY bounces back.


daily-market-update-696x364.png

Weak data (Retail Sales & PPI) from the US added to recession worries – More Hawkish comments from a raft of FED speakers talking 5.25-5.5% terminal rates added to a safe haven bid for the USD, Stock markets to collapse (-1.24% to -1.81%) under key technical levels and speculators to back the YEN and push the BOJ once more. Bonds rallied, the US 10-yr yield dropped to 3.75%. Asia markets are lower and rangebeound & European FUTS are also mixed. NZD unmoved from surprise the PM Ardern will step down in Febrary ahead of October elections.

  • The USD Index hit a new 7-mth low at 101.25, before the data and a recovery of the 102.00 handle.
  • EUR – holds at 1.0800 now, following a new 8-mth high over 1.0870.
  • JPY – Rip roaring day from 131.60 highs yesterday completely reversed and back to test 128.00 now.
  • GBP – Sterling has breached 1.2400, following the US data and currently trades at 1.2335.
  • Stocks – The US markets were weak into close (-1.24% to +1.81%). US500 -1.56% to 3928 and below 200 EMA and testing the 50MA. PNC -6.04%, UAL -4.57%, US500 FUTS trade at 3937.
2023-01-19_09-14-16.jpg


  • USOil – rallied again to test $82.50 before the US economic data and inventories took it lower to $79.00 where it holds now.
  • Gold – has tested $1900 again today from highs of $1922 yesterday, trades at $1912 now.
  • BTC – Continues to hold over $20k this week but has relinquished the $21k today to trade at $20.7k.
Today – Building Permits/Housing Starts, Weekly Claims, Norges Bank & CBRT Announcements, ECB Minutes, Speeches from Fed’s Williams, Brainard & Collins, ECB’s Lagarde, Schnabel & Knot, Earnings – Procter & Gamble and Netflix.

2023-01-19_08-59-28.jpg




Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) AUDJPY (+1.41%). Rejected & reversed the post BOJ rally to 92.00, tanking close to 400 pips to test 88.00 lows. MAs aligned lower, MACD histogram & signal line negative & falling. RSI 22.87, OS & falling, H1 ATR 0.239, Daily ATR 1.278.

2023-01-19_09-16-37.jpg

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer:
This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 
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