Fundamental Analisis By InstaForex

[IFX Darika]

Dollar In The Dumps Versus European Majors

The dollar continued to wobble versus other major currencies on Friday, nearing its lowest in a decade versus the Swiss franc while hovering near a recent 5-month low against the euro.

Another batch of economic news from the housing front may provide clues about the ailing sector. Durable goods data is also on tap this morning, and may shed some light on manufacturing activity.

Lingering economic weakness has fueled speculation that the Federal Reserve is preparing a second round quantitative easing measures. The central bank has few arrows left in its quiver, having long ago lowered interest rates to a record low near zero.

The dollar continued its dramatic slump versus the safe haven Swiss franc, dropping to a 2-year low of .9795. A move below 0.9645 would take buck to its lowest in more than a decade.

Dollar weakness has contributed to the rise of gold, which breached the $1300 an ounce mark for the first time today.

The dollar dropped to a 10-day low of Y84.19 against the yen, edging closer to this month's 15-year low of Y82.86.

Against the euro, the dollar held near $1.3439 -- its lowest level since May. After starting September near 1.2600, the buck has steadily lost ground, returning to levels not seen since the start of the European sovereign debt crisis.

Concerns about public debt in Europe have been soothed by austerity measures and the a series of successful bond offerings.

German business sentiment improved unexpectedly in September to the highest level since June 2007, despite concerns of a double-dip in the largest eurozone economy.

News are provided by InstaForex.

 

[BudakFx]

GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels, September 27, 2010 2010-09-27​

This currency pair is now trading in the flat limited by 131.70-133.75. The breakout of the flat will show the future direction of the med term trend. According to wave count the last leg up is considered a corrective wave to the downside impulse 135.03-131.70. The targets of this corrective movement are Fibonacci retracements of 135.03-131.70 and expansions off 131.70-133.75-132.32.

Resistances:

- 133.59 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 133.76 = .618 retracement
- 134.37 = objective point (OP)
- 135.64 = expanded objective point (XOP)

In case the flat is broken out to the downside the targets below the current price will be Fibonacci retracements of 127.62-135.03, and expansions off 135.03-131.70-133.75, 133.75-132.32-133.62.

Supports:

- 132.74 = COP
- 132.19 = OP
- 131.69 = COP
- 131.32-31 = confluence area of .50 ret and XOP
- 130.45-42 = confluence area of .618 ret and OP




Overbought/Oversold

The Detrended Oscillator is now oscillating around the zero line, confirming the med term flat. Assuming that the prevailing trend is down, it's advisable to seek for topping signals against one of the Fibonacci resistances listed above or when the price gets into the overbought area - 30-40 pips above the current level.

Read more on how to apply Fibonacci studies to calculate price targets.

Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010

 

[BudakFx]

AUD/USD Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels, September 27, 2010 2010-09-27​

According to wave count this currency pair is now developing wave 5 of daily degree (colored royal blue on the chart). The targets of this wave are Fibonacci expansions off 0.8772-0.9183-0.9091 (waves 1-2), 0.9091-0.9599-0.9462 (waves 3-4).

Major resistances:

- 0.9756 = expanded objective point (XOP)
- 0.9776 = contracted objective point (COP)

In case the price resumes short term corrective wave B (colored orange red on the chart) its targets will be Fibonacci retracements of wave 0.9462-0.9622.

Supports:

- 0.9561 = .382 retracement
- 0.9542 = .50 ret
- 0.9523 = .618 ret

Daily wave 5 will be over when 0.9462 is broken to the downside since this is the base of wave 5.




Overbought/Oversold

The Detrended Oscillator is moving into the oversold area confirming the corrective movement. Assuming that the prevailing trend is still up it's recommended to enter long on weaknesses - i.e. when the price hits a Fibonacci support or gets into the oversold which is 20-30 pips below the current price level.

Read more on how to apply Fibonacci studies to calculate price targets.

Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010

 

[BudakFx]

GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels, September 28, 2010 2010-09-28​

According to wave count this currency pair is now trading in corrective waves (B) of various degrees. First, there is daily wave B down, starting from 135.03 (colored royal blue on the chart), then there's subwave B (colored magenta) within the previous B. Next, there's again subwave B - colored red. This set of corrective subwaves confirms the flat.

Until 133.75 is intact the targets of the daily B are Fibonacci retracements of 127.62-135.03 and expansions off 135.03-131.70-133.75.

Supports:

- 131.69 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 131.32-31 = confluence area of .50 retracement and expanded objective point (XOP)
- 130.45-42 = confluence area of .618 ret and objective point (OP)

In case the price breaks out of the flat to the upside the nearest targets will be Fibonacci retracements of 135.03-131.70, and expansions off 127.62-135.03-131.70 (daily A-B waves - royal blue), 131.70-133.75-132.32, 132.32.-133.62-132.84.

Resistances:

- 133.64 = contracted objective point (COP), reached already (!)
- 133.76 = .618 retracement
- 134.14 = objective point (OP)
- 134.37 = OP
- 134.94 = expanded objective point (XOP)
- 135.64 = XOP




Overbought/Oversold

The Detrended Oscillator is now oscillating around the zero with the peaks converging around the line. This is one more confirmation of the flat. Assuming that the med term trend is yet unclear it's advisable to stand aside until the price gets out of the flat.

Read more on how to apply Fibonacci studies to calculate price targets.

Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010

 

[BudakFx]

AUD/USD Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels, September 28, 2010 2010-09-28​

Australian dollar keeps renewing older peaks developing the long- and med term uptrend. According to wave count the current daily wave (colored royal blue) is wave 5. Its targets are Fibonacci expansions off waves 1-2 (0.8772-0.9183-0.9091), and waves 3-4 (0.9091-0.9599-0.9462).

Strategic resistances:

- 0.9756 = expanded objective point (XOP)
- 0.9776 = contracted objective point (COP)

However a shorter term carrection can not be ruled out. If the price keeps declining the next supports will be Fibonacci retracements of 0.9462-0.9644.

Supports:

- 0.9574 = .382 retracement
- 0.9553 = .50 ret
- 0.9532 = .618 ret

Daily wave 5 ends when its base (0.9462) is exceeded by the price.




Overbought/Oversold

The Detrended Oscillator is now standing at the zero line, however the sequence of its peaks doesn't confirm a flat. Therefore, assuming that the prevailing trend is still up it's advisable to look for bottoming signlas against one of the Fibonacci supports listed above to enter long. Or when the price gets into the oversold - 20-30 pips below the current level.

Read more on how to apply Fibonacci studies to calculate price targets.

Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010

 

[BudakFx]

GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels, September 29, 2010 2010-09-29​

According to wave count this currency pair has just ended developing corrective wave B of the med term downtrend (colored mangenta) on the chart. Now the pair is potentially developing impulse wave C within daily corrective wave B (colored royal blue). To confirm wave C the price needs to exceed 131.70 - this is the top of wave A.

In this case the targets of the downside movement are Fibonacci retracements of 127.62-135.03 and expansions off 135.03-131.70-133.75.

Supports:

- 131.69 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 131.32 = .50 retracement
- 130.45-42 = confluence area of .618 ret and objective point (OP)

In case the price breaks out of the flat to the upside the nearest targets will be Fibonacci retracements of 135.03-131.70, and expansions off 127.62-135.03-131.70 (daily A-B waves - royal blue), and 131.70-133.75-131.94. Before 133.75 also consider resistances of 133.75-131.94.

Resistances:

- 132.85 = .50 ret
- 133.06 = .618 ret
- 133.21 = COP
- 133.76 = .618 ret
- 133.99 = OP
- 135.26 expanded objective point (XOP)




Overbought/Oversold

The Detrended Oscillator is now oscillating around the zero with the last peak down exceeding the previous peaks. This may be a good confirmation of wave C in development. Short entries are favored when the price hits a Fibonacci resistance or gets into the overbought - some 40-50 pips above the current price.

Read more on how to apply Fibonacci studies to calculate price targets.

Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010

 

[BudakFx]

AUD/USD Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels, September 29, 2010 2010-09-29​

Australian dollar is developing wave 5 of the daily uptrend (colored royal blue on the chart). Within this wave we have a set of 3 waves - A-B and C developing (colored red on the chart). Within the subwave C there's also a set of 4 subwaves (colored yellow).

The targets of the advance are Fibonacci expansions off daily waves 1-2 (0.8772-0.9183-0.9091), waves 3-4 (0.9091-0.9599-0.9462), and waves of smaller degree - 0.9462-0.9644-0.9558, 0.9558-0.9638-0.9589.

Resistances:

- 0.9718 = expanded objective point (XOP)
- 0.9740 = objective point (OP)
- 0.9756 = XOP
- 0.9776 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 0.9798 = super expanded objective point (SXOP)

In case the price turns down for a short term corrective wave the nearest supports are Fibonacci retracements of 0.9558-0.9686.

Supports:

- 0.9637 = .382 retracement
- 0.9622 = .50 ret
- 0.9601 = .618 ret

Daily wave 5 ends when its base (0.9462) is exceeded by the price.




Overbought/Oversold

The Detrended Oscillator has just came back from the overbought to the zero level, confirming the corrective wave. Assuming that the prevailing trend is up it's advisable to seek for bottoming signals when the price hits a Fibonacci support (see listed above) or gets into the oversold - 35-45 pips below the current price.

Read more on how to apply Fibonacci studies to calculate price targets.

Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010

 

[BudakFx]

GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels, September 30, 2010 2010-09-30​

As wave count shows this currency pair is trading in daily corrective downwave B - colored royal blue on the chart. Within this wave there's a set of 3 subwaves - colored magenta - with wave still developing and needing confirmation, which is the break under 131.70 (top of subwave A).

Now the valid targets of the downside movement are Fibonacce retracements of 127.62-135.03 and expansions off 135.03-131.70-133.75, 133.75-131.79-132.54, 132.54-131.84-132.52.

Supports:

- 131.69 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 131.39-33-32 = confluence area of expanded objective point (XOP), COP and .50 retracement
- 130.69 = super expanded objective point (SXOP)
- 130.58 = OP
- 130.45-42 = confluence area of .618 ret and objective point (OP)

In case the price reverses up, possibly within the impulse daily wave, the nearest targets will be Fibonacci retracements of the wave down starting from 133.75 (wave not developed yet).




Overbought/Oversold

The Detrended Oscillator is moving into the oversold, confirming the downtrend. Assuming that the movement down is corrective it's advisable to stand aside, until the uptrend reveals itself, or venture near-term short positions within the corrective wave.

Read more on how to apply Fibonacci studies to calculate price targets.

Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010

 

[BudakFx]

AUD/USD Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels, September 30, 2010 2http://instaforex.com/forex_analysis/15511/010-09-30​

Australian dollar is developing wave 5 of the daily uptrend (colored royal blue on the chart). Within this wave we have a set of 3 waves - A-B-C - and wave 4 developing - colored red on the chart. Within this wave 4 we have a set of 3 subwaves with wave C in development.

The targets of the corrective decline are Fibonacci retracements of wave 3 - 0.9558-0.9729, and expansions off the subwaves within wave 4 - 0.9729-0.9675-0.9717.

Supports:

- 0.9644 = .50 retracement
- 0.9630-23 = confluence area of expanded objective point (XOP) and .618 retracement
- 0.9576 = super expanded objective point (SXOP)

In case the price resumes the uptrend the targets will remain the same. We'll use Fibonacci expansions off daily waves 1-2 (0.8772-0.9183-0.9091), waves 3-4 (0.9091-0.9599-0.9462), and waves of smaller degree - 0.9462-0.9644-0.9558.

Resistances:

- 0.9740 = objective point (OP)
- 0.9756 = XOP
- 0.9776 = contracted objective point (COP)




Overbought/Oversold

The Detrended Oscillator is in the oversold area, confirming the corrective wave down. Assuming that the prevailing trend up is still unchanged, it's advisable to already be seeking for bottoming signals to enter long - either when the price hits a Fibonacci support, or gets out of the oversold.

Read more on how to apply Fibonacci studies to calculate price targets.

Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010

 

[BudakFx]

Wave analysis of the GBP/USD currency pair for October 01, 2010 2010-10-01​

As supposed, yesterday the price of the GBP/USD having formed the shortened 5th wave in the 5 (or in the 3d) started the down- directed motion, correcting against the upside trend area developing from September 10. After working out the Fibonacci correction level 88,6% which corresponds to 1,5920. The pound has fallen for several hours by more than 2,5 figure. Due to this, taking into account the started lowering dynamics one may consider the probability of quotes drawdown to the level of 1.5550 during the correctional A wave formation.

Performed by Alexander Dneprovskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010