Markets have thrown caution to the wind when it comes to movements as of late as once again US equities set the scene with another stellar rise, though not as big as yesterdays. The main catalyst for this move was the US unemployment claims figures which showed a drop on the previous weeks result to 258K (257K exp). While still slightly above the expected figure it shows that the labour market is still very much alive and kicking in the lead up to Trumps swearing as president and that the market is certainly poised to grow if the infrastructure projects that many expect do in fact go ahead. On top of this financials have also been stronger, as many expect Trumps government to likely cut back on financial regulation in areas to help free up capital for further uses. The long term effects of this will be hard to measure but markets are expecting big things.
The S&P 500 had its maiden touch today as it clipped 2250 before retreating as some traders looked to unwind their positions in the market. I had mentioned yesterday that this would be the psychological barrier that traders would look to play off, the question is now where to from here. I would expect to see the S&P to rally higher, but with 2250 now acting as a strong level of support expect to see some ranging unless we get further Trump news, or an update from the FED. Any further falls are likely to touch on support at 2211 and also the 20 day moving average, which has so far been acting as dynamic support for any rises in the market.
For the Aussie dollar it has been another day of pain as it continues to struggle in the market, and is starting to look like it's consolidating against the USD rather than trending. It was not helped at all today by the recent Australian Trade Balance data coming in at-1.54B (-0.71B exp). This is a reflection of the strong Australian dollar when it comes to commodities which have been feeding the trade balance data for some time. The long term effects of the commodity prices being slightly depressed and not rebounding is likely to be felt on the markets as traders look to punish the AUD. Certainly for the Reserve Bank of Australia this will not be appealing and they may look to cut further in the future, but for now it's likely a wait and see game.
For the AUDUSD resistance at 0.7490 has so far held its grounds, and for the most part I expect and anticipate that we could see further falls on the charts given the strong USD, and the poor economic data we continue to see out of Australia. What will be key is the short term bullish trend line on the daily chart, when this breaks it will give the bears clear control and markets are looking ready to pounce on the opportunity. Looking for a strong level of support it can be found easily at 0.7326 and is likely to hold up against a first attempt to break through.
It's been a slow start to the global calendar today as the markets were relatively quiet from an economic data perspective but there was some slight selling of the USD across the major pairs which saw the commodity currencies take centre stage. None more so that the NZDUSD which had its housing data report come back showing housing sales down -6.0% (-14.2% prev), while visitor arrivals were also up 2%. This bodes somewhat well for the current state of the NZ economy which has also seen some political change in the last few weeks, and as the economy looks to pick up in the wake of the recent earthquake. But, it's not all doom and gloom over that side of the world and the NZD continues to be a strong currency in the wake of it all, even as the RBNZ made comments last week that the time for the NZD was now to fall.
The NZDUSD has not fallen, in fact today it rallied strongly on the back of USD selling to touch a strong level of resistance at 0.7180 before pausing and failing to maintain any further momentum. The net level above at 0.7222 is looking all the more cautious, but at present further USD selling could propel the kiwi much higher at this rate. Support levels are also keenly watched and none more so than 0.7113, which has held up any further movements lower. Just below this key support level is the 200 day moving average which the NZDUSD has been respecting quite frequently, and I would expect hold back any further bearish movements in the event of a swing lower.
The NZDUSD may have some of the spotlight but it's not hard to look past the AUD as well as Chinese data is due out shortly in the day and as usual it will have a large impact. Traders will be sharply focused around the Industrial Production reading at present, but also the Australian data due out on business confidence with expectations low for a strong reading given the recent turmoil that Australia has endured from an economic perspective.
On the charts the AUDUSD continues to be a mixed bag and looks very similar to the NZDUSD when it comes to patterns. So far resistance around 0.7490 has been quite strong and the market is looking for further direction from the economic events from today before looking to move either higher or lower. I would expect the 100 and 50 day moving average may look to slow traders who are quite bullish, but it's no guarantee when it comes to such important economic data. The 20 day moving average has thus far managed to act as dynamic support I would expect that to remain the case as the USD weakness continues in the marketplace. However, overall the bullish trend is pointing upwards and it may be a matter of time before the AUD looks to take charge again against the USD bulls.
The market has been somewhat stunned today as Janet Yellen announced after the FOMC that the FED was raising rates by 25 basis points to 0.75%; this was in line with the market expectation that the FED would finally look to raise rates in December. However, the rate rise is somewhat unexpected in the sense that the FED has been dovish for some time and is starting to look hawkish. The rate rise is in line with the inflation expectations that the FED has also been looking out for 2%, and also in line with the labour market expectations which have continued to improve. With the market now taking on board the rate cut the USD has rise in line with expectations, but the expectations for future rate cuts are likely to diminish given the fact the FED is looking to slow down in the wake of political change to adjust to the new fiscal policy that may be laid out by the Trump presidency.
For the S&P 500 we saw a quick retreat on the charts as a result of the rate rise, and for some time we have been talking up the reality of it happening. Obviously the fall was not massive, but rather a minor adjustment and with the FED actually looking dovish in the near future we could see the bulls still look to take control. So far resistance is likely to be found 2276 and the next level above this at the psychological level of 2300. Any retreat further on the charts is likely to find dynamic support at the 20 day moving average and also at the next major level which can be found at 2246 and 2211, both of which are likely to stifle any bearish movements lower.
One of the biggest losers on the back of the FED movement has been the gold markets which has so far suffered under the higher USD and the fact that many investors now believe with Trump in power we will see a boost to the economy. The reality has been far from satisfactory though, with gold trending down the charts aggressively, and shrugging of any fears of an increase in inflation caused by the spending that many had expected from Trump. It would seem more than ever that gold bugs are doing it tough, and could in fact be in for another round of toughing it out on the markets.
On the charts gold has fallen all the way down to a strong support level at 1141 in an increasingly bearish trend line that looks set to stay. Beyond this key level the next level of support is likely to be found around 1109 and could be an area we see gold look to take a breather. Gold has also previously reacted quite strongly to the 20 day moving average and this could easily come back into play as dynamic resistance in the event that gold swings higher.
As widely anticipated the Bank of Japan did not surprise markets by keeping monetary policy unchanged at its final meeting for 2016. The central bank left interest rates unchanged at -0.1% and 10-year JGB’s yield target around zero, while maintain its annual holding of bonds at 80 trillion yen.
The 12% decline in the Yen and 13% surge in crude prices since BoJ last met on November 1, helped in providing a brighter economic outlook as exports and output picked up.
But the extreme divergence of U.S. monetary policy was considered a risk, as series of expected rate hikes in 2017 could see capital flight from emerging economies.
USDJPY rose 0.5% as bond yield spreads between U.S. and Japan are not expected to shrink anytime soon, but we can assume that BoJ’s next step likely to be tightening rather than easing further.
2016 is ending with tragic incidents in Turkey and Germany, but investors have become so fast in digesting bad news, and this explains the resilience in financial markets.
The U.S. dollar is trading in narrow ranges against most of its major peers after Monday’s rally which was supported by Yellen’s public speech in Baltimore University. Although she did not comment on Monetary policy, her views that job market is strong and wage growth picking up was sufficient to provide the greenback a boost.
With only nine trading days remaining till end of year, investors are unlikely to take heavy positions, whether it’s in equity, fixed income or foreign exchange markets, suggesting that the narrow range trading is likely to remain until new year.
The New Zealand dollar continues to be volatile for traders despite the upbeat rhetoric from the government of New Zealand and also the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. Trade Balance data today was anything but positive though as it came in at -705M (-500M exp), putting further pressure on the NZDUSD which has been under intense pressure from bears in the recent weeks. This combined with the recent drop in global dairy auctions will put pressure back on the New Zealand economy, and it will be interesting to see the view point of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand regarding this as trade balance has always been high on its agenda. However, there has been some slight wins as the housing market looks to be cooling off after enacting aggressive measures and the NZDUSD has started losing some of its value which will certainly help turn around further trade balance issues. The key focus from here will be tomorrows GDP data, with many expecting it to be a robust figure for the quarter - despite the recent natural and market events which have caused some worries.
The NZDUSD continues to be an interesting trade with long trending runs and also large patches of ranging, but so far it has been all trend with no range as of late - a common theme across all commodity currencies since the Trump victory. The trade balance data today had little effect on the NZDUSD and the markets seemed to be positive to it; it's the USD strength though which is causing issues for commodity currency bulls. Support was certainly found at 0.6881 and traders will be looking to see if the daily candle closes out as a hammer which could indicate a swing here as USD traders may be looking to take a breather and unwind. If that is the case then resistance can be found at 0.6948 and 0.7000 as the next levels higher, however this is against the trend at present and I would expect fierce pressure around these levels from kiwi traders.
Across the 'ditch' and the Australian dollar continues to find itself under some pressure as well against the USD, but one trade that has been quite interesting has been the trading around the AUDJPY after yesterdays Bank of Japan holding fire. Recently, the AUDJPY trended up sharply before hitting and forming a strong trend line on the daily chart which is quite bearish in nature since 2014. The clear respect of this trend line will be key for a number of traders strategies, and as the Yen continues to look to get weaker the AUDJPY may see another attempt to take a higher level here.
The move higher on the daily chart as of today shows a strong candle trying to engulf all the recent loses after finding support at 84.754, and I would expect a further rise to also find resistance at 86.188 before looking to play of the trend line yet again.
US markets were buoyed today by the ever increasing consumer as consumer confidence lifted to a high not seen since 2001, as it breached through 113 (exp 108) showcasing the strength of the US economy. US dollar bulls will be happy to see this as a cherry on top moment for them leading into 2017 and the likelihood of stimulus from the new Trump president. The rest of the coming week is likely to be light on the fundamentals as one would expect this time of year, however, there is still pending home sales and unemployment claims coming up and this should provide some movements. Non-farm payroll in the new year before the presidential appointment will also set the tone for the year ahead and will be closely watched to also see how the FED could kick of the new year as well.
For market movements today the S&P 500 failed to deliver on the back of the big uptick on consumer confidence. This is due in part by many in the market viewing the FED raising rates as having a negative effect on equity markets. The movement higher today though touched on strong resistance at 2272 and this looks likely to be the market level that everyone looks to beat in the short term in the new year. Obviously if we do see a pullback on the charts and the S&P trending downwards, I would expect that the 20 day moving average to act as dynamic support which it has done previously.
Gold has also been another victim of the US bull run as of late, but it had as light resurgence as of late with the market pushing higher and coming up just short of dynamic resistance at the 20 day moving average. Previous resistance at 1143 was not enough to stop the charge, but this could be on the back of low liquidity in the market for commodity trading; hence the drop shortly after the rally. Despite all of this a strong level of support has formed at 1127 and it's likely we could possible see some ranging as a result of this over the coming week so watching key levels could be ideal for precious metal traders.
Finally, the USDCAD is one trade that is worth paying close attention to as it struggles to gather momentum in the marketplace. Oil prices recently were slightly up, but so far the CAD has registered any sort of movement against the USD - the big test will instead be on Thursday with US oil inventories which is expected to show a strong draw down in the market, the question will be if oil prices do indeed rally again strongly will they be strong enough to match the market and cause change. For now the trend is certainly bullish and resistance can be found at 1.358. It will be interesting to see if the USDCAD can continue the bullish momentum and look to extend before the year closes out.
Oil markets continued to be a weird mix as of late as the market expects -2.06M barrels from tomorrows reading, however private inventory data readings are initially suggesting there is the biggest build up of crude oil in over 6 weeks, leading to many rethinking tomorrows prediction. So far oil has slipped slightly as a result and this was on the back of a weakening in the USD. Predictions so far have been that OPEC will look to impose its tightening in order to bolster the market, but if the market is still showing signs of a build up it may require further action in the future to up the price of oil - something that most members will not be looking forward to the idea of.
Oil on the charts has been very bullish in recent weeks on the back of all the noise from OPEC and the market certainly believes prices will increase in the long run. So far the level that many are looking to beat and is acting as stiff resistance in the market is at 54.96 and looks likely to face further technical pressure unless there are any major fundamental announcements. Beyond this level the next leg could be found at 60.12 which also acts as a major psychological level for the most part. Any movements lower are likely to touch the 20 day moving average and in this case I would anticipate it to act as dynamic support as we have previously seen.
NZDUSD traders will be watching the events of today after it appeared that the NZDUSD was able to find some footing after recent bearish movements in the previous week. The surge today looked quite strong, but it was all on the back of USD selling and had little to do with the current economic outlook for New Zealand for the most part. While I would anticipate the NZ economy bouncing back, the stage is certainly focused on the US economy for the most part and any bullish movements should be treated as something not to focus to intently on. Commodity prices for the NZ economy continue to remain subdued and it seems this won't change in the short term just yet, but they will eventually recover and aid the current economy.
Technically speaking the NZDUSD is always a tricky one to play with, but the rise upwards towards resistance at 0.6948 is looking quite bullish in the short term. However, it would seem unlikely that it could push through psychological barrier of 0.70 which has always been a big ask for traders. Further legs back down are likely to find strong support at 0.6874, but the market is pricing in further moves lower I feel, but it could take further strong US data to really get it pushing towards the 0.65 mark.
Whether you consider 2016 a good or a bad year, it was by no doubt the year of surprises. Not just because Donald Trump was elected the 45th president of the United Stated or because the UK decided to leave the EU, but the markets’ reactions to these events were even more surprising and most forecasters got it wrong.
A new year has started and many questions remain to be answered; here are some of the most asked questions for 2017: Will the Trump rally carry on? How many rate hikes will the Fed deliver? What is the future of the UK and the EU? Will OPEC finally balance the oil markets?
Will the Trump rally carry on?
Following the election of Donald Trump on November 8, all U.S. major indices recorded new highs. The Dow Jones industrial average rose 8%, S&P 500 and Nasdaq composite gained 5%, and the small-cap stock market index Russell 2000 outperformed its peers rising by more than 13%.
From a market valuation perspective, very few may disagree that stocks are expensive, but the expected combination of fiscal stimulus and deregulation for some sectors under Trump’s presidency were the main catalysts for the rally. Of course, financial markets tend to price in events before they occur, but this time I believe investors have priced in most of the good news, and it requires very strong corporate profit growth to keep this bull market alive. Predicting the end of the bull market is a tough call, but the downside risk in 2017 is likely to be larger than the upside potential. If U.S. policy makers succeed in delivering the anticipated growth we can see another 5 – 10% gains in U.S. stocks, but failure to do so will cause a steep selloff that could exceed 20%.
Day traders may be luckier than investors in 2017 as a new indicator has been added to their watch list: Trump’s twitter account. On December 6, Trump tweeted “Boeing is building a brand new 747 Air Force One for future presidents, but costs are out of control, more than $4 billion. Cancel order!”, few seconds later Boeing stock wiped almost $1 billion from its market cap. We expect to see more of these tweets in 2017 and algorithms will probably require long time to put them into play, leaving retail traders with opportunities to profit from such market disruptions.
How many rate hikes will the Fed deliver?
2016 kicked off with the expectation that four rate hikes would occur, but only one was delivered in December. Although it was anticipated that the Federal Reserve will be more cautious in their forward guidance for 2017, December’s meeting took many economists by surprise as they hinted for three rate hikes.
Since the financial crisis in 2008 the Fed has got many things wrong, whether it is forecasting rate hikes, economic growth and inflation levels, and now with a new administration to take office on January 20, this could make the Fed’s projections even more complicated.
Inflation has always been the main justification for low interest rates, but now, even before Trump takes office, a couple of inflation gauges are running above 2%. The Fed did not account for any fiscal stimulus measures in their most recent projections, suggesting that huge shifts in expectations may be seen.
The rising U.S. dollar which is currently at a 14-year high is another source of worry for the Fed, and tightening too fast will lead to even stronger dollar hitting U.S. exports and multinational companies’ profits.
If Trump’s measures were passed and economic growth picked up, the Fed will have few options, either tightening monetary policy more aggressively, or to fall behind the curve and let the fixed income market lead the way, but three rate hikes in 2017 is my base case. Either way the dollar is likely to remain strong as divergence in monetary policies will continue to widen.
Future of the UK and the EU?
Hard, Soft or Grey Brexit. This was the most argued topic in the past six months, and until now there’s no clear path on what direction the UK will move. The pound ended 2016 17.5% lower against the US dollar since June 23 and there’s lot of speculation on how it will end in 2017. Of course, much will depend on the path Britain will choose. Theresa May promised to trigger Article 50 by the end of March, but we still need to hear from the Supreme Court on whether the UK government needs parliamentary approval before starting the withdrawal from the EU.
The delay in triggering Article 50 will be positive in the short term for sterling, and negotiations may last well beyond 2017 on the terms of Brexit. Meanwhile investors will be focusing on the economic developments and the direction of the Bank of England’s monetary policy, which will probably be the second major central bank to raise rates after the Fed.
Politics within the EU will rule investment decisions in 2017. Germany and France, the two largest economies will hold elections amid the rise of Eurosceptic candidates. Italy is likely to see an early vote, after the resignation of Matteo Renzi last month, and the Five Star Movement has vowed that if it wins power it will hold a referendum on whether Italy should leave the Eurozone.
Although many polls indicate that far right candidates are still behind, nothing should be taken for granted after Trump won the U.S. presidency and Britain voted to leave the EU. Expect to see more pressure on the Euro and look out for parity against the dollar in the first six months.
Will OPEC finally balance the oil market?
After hitting a low of $27 a barrel in February 2016, Brent prices more than doubled by the end of year and many investment banks still see further increase in prices for 2017.
OPEC’s decision to cut its output by 1.2 million barrels a day starting January, and non-OPEC producers to cut 558K barrels for the next six months to drain record global oil inventories led Brent prices to post its first yearly increase since 2012.
Whether more appreciation is to be seen in 2017 will depend on multiple factors, and the biggest one currently looming is compliance to production cuts. It’s in no one’s interest not to comply, but historic figures show that delivering on previous production cuts has been poor.
U.S. producers are another element to be focused on, how fast shale may come back is a key component to be considered in the price equation. Although Trump has made the energy sector part of his economic growth plan, I believe it won’t have a lot of impact if prices don’t hold up. The dollar strength will likely impact the demand side, as continued strength will make oil more expensive in other currencies.
With all these unknows we will likely see prices moving in tight ranges in the first quarter until we get a clearer picture.
The US economy was thrown back into the spotlight today as the FOMC minutes were released and the dovish FED of the past certainly looked a thing of the past, with some of the most upbeat and hawkish minutes that have been seen in a long time. Almost all of the officials present in the meeting expected that with Trumps appointment growth was expected to pick up in line with his expansionary policies. One thing that also stood out was the FED's own expectation around inflation with expectations that it will increase to the magic 2% mark in the medium term, and the recent lift in quarterly inflation was further credit to this theory. Regardless of the trump effect the FED looks to be singing the same tune as the market and that can only be positive for the bulls in the short term. The real question will be around what Trump can actually do with congress in order to get the US economy moving again and the economy expanding further - even when it's almost at full capacity when it comes to employment.
Regardless of how you viewed the FOMC minutes, the recent economic data out of the US has been positive with the construction spending m/m lifting to 0.9% (0.5% exp) and ISM manufacturing PMI also lifting to 54.7 (53.8 exp). All of this has boded well for traders and the markets have responded accordingly with the S&P 500 lifting back up to a strong level of resistance in anticipation of tomorrows economic data due out on the employment sector and the services sector as well. Even with resistance currently sitting at 2272 the expectation of further highs is fresh on traders' minds and they will be looking to push the boundaries further in the current climate. A push upwards to 2300 is very much on the cards if the market sees further positive US economic data tomorrow.
One thing that is also worth watching out for in tomorrow's trading is oil markets, previously they have been moving quite rapidly in the low volume trading and volatility is certainly ever traders friend. The recent build up in private storage showed that perhaps oil markets still needed a little more time to correct and we saw prices fall accordingly down to the 20 day moving average before finding dynamic support. Expectations are for a decline in overall oil inventories, but after the recent private reading the market may have altered its expectations.
Technically speaking though oil is looking very strong with resistance sitting tight at 54.46, to get past this level we would need to see a large drawdown in crude oil inventories, and this may be a bit of an ask just after Christmas. Any further falls are also likely to struggle past the 20 day moving average, and even more so the 50 day moving average which is acting as dynamic support for market movements at present.
Asian equities retreat as investors shift to cautious mode
After a strong start for the year, equity markets started to cool down in the second trading week of 2017. Most Asian major indices are in red today, as Wall Street failed to make new highs and the Dow retreated further from the key psychological 20,000 mark, while oil suffered a steep selloff on Monday.
Investors who built their positions based on Trump’s victory are likely to start cashing out for the time being and shift their focus on fundamentals with the earning season kicking off later this week when U.S. big banks release their fourth quarter results. I’m not confident to call a correction yet, but certainly many investors got ahead of themselves betting on fiscal stimulus, and while business usually tends to under promise and over deliver, this doesn’t seem to be the case with the U.S. new President.
Although Kuwait’s Oil Minister Essam Al-Marzouk who is chairing the committee to oversee compliance of OPEC’s output assured the markets that OPEC and non-OPEC members will abide to the planned cuts, still both oil benchmarks dropped 4% on Monday. This clearly indicates that it’s not just an OPEC game, and the expected increase in U.S. and Canadian supplies are likely to threaten the oil rally. Data from the U.S. on Friday showed rig counts rose for ten consecutive weeks and it’s just about some time for this to translate into additional production, suggesting that downside risk may remain in play, and rather than just focusing on implementations of OPEC production cuts, investors should be looking at the bigger picture on whether supply will meet demand in the second half of 2017.
The U.S. dollar fell for a second day, extending its slide from the 14-year high hit on January 3. The pull back in the dollar came despite hawkish speeches from Fed officials suggesting that the central bank is getting closer to achieving its dual mandate. Both Fed presidents, Charles Evans and Patrick Harker aren’t ruling out three rate hikes in 2017, while Eric Rosengren called for stepping up the pace of interest rates hikes to prevent inflation from overshooting. However, traders are still not yet completely convinced and pricing in only two hikes for 2017 according to CME’s Fed Watch. With no tier one economic data on the calendar until Friday, U.S. bond yields will remain to be the key driver for the greenback.
The Pound remained under pressure after Monday’s steep selloff on comments from UK’s Prime Minister Theresa May which intensified fears of “Hard Brexit”. Although the pound looks undervalued, the risk of further selloff may remain in play as we get closer to triggering article 50. Meanwhile comments from Scotland’s First Minister on BBC that she’s not bluffing about her vow to hold a second referendum on Scottish independence if Britain leaves the single market is another factor to worry about on the medium-term.
