Forex daily News FBS

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3 stocks that beat expectations

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30.04.2020

Tesla, Facebook and Microsoft have outperformed analysts’ forecasts and ramped up after earnings reports. How is it possible amid the coronavirus crisis?
Tesla

Surprisingly, Tesla has managed to make a profit in the first quarter amid the global crisis. Elon Musk even didn’t mention the coronavirus in his letter to investors. The company earned 16 million dollars in the quarter, sales rose to 5.99 billion dollars from 4.54 billion dollars a year ago. The stock surged more than 9% after the report. Overall, Tesla shares increased by 36% in the last three months. However, the second quarter might be worse as people’s incomes reduced. Also, lower gasoline prices made people keep driving their petrol-driven cars. Despite these doubts, Tesla targeted the 40% annual growth.
Facebook

The Facebook revenue for the first quarter was better than expected(17.74 billion dollars), but earnings came worse because of the virus impact(4.9 billion dollars). Overall reaction to the report was positive and mixed results pushed the Facebook stock up by 10%. The outlook for the second quarter is still uncertain, but the company will make all efforts to mitigate the coronavirus effect. For example, last week it released Messenger Rooms, a video chat meeting service as an alternative to Zoom. Future perspectives are positive for Facebook.
Microsoft

Microsoft outperformed expectations that had been made before the coronavirus spread. It’s the only Dow Jones component to see its stock up in the first quarter. Microsoft reported 10.75 billion dollars earnings, or $1.40 a share, on sales of 35 billion dollars, up from profit of $1.14 a share on revenue of 30.57 billion dollars a year ago. Analysts anticipated earnings of $1.27 a share on sales of $33.76 billion. Microsoft shares rose more than 2% in after-hours trading. Also, the company has the Azure cloud-computing software that would help to offset the coronavirus damage as most companies need this tool to work from home. However, the company is not so confident about the future growth.

 

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EUR is fragile: ECB statement on April 30

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10:11 29.04.2020

The European Central Bank will unveil the refinancing rate and make the monetary policy statement on April 30 at 14:45 MT.

Instruments to trade: EUR/USD, EUR/GBP, EUR/AUD, EUR/CAD, EUR/CNH, EUR/CHF, EUR/NZD, EUR/JPY

Europe has been enormously damaged by the COVID-19. The IMF anticipates the GDP of the euro area to decline by 7.5% this year. There’s little the ECB can do to prevent the fall but it can mitigate the coronavirus impact.

The ECB has already taken some actions. Last month it effectively allowed Greek lenders to borrow from the central bank. Then, it has started accepting junk debts that shield sovereigns such as Italy from a downgrade. However, the ECB’s coronavirus program might expire by October if the central bank continues buying sovereign bonds at the same rate.

If there is no result, the bank would even have to try helicopter money. Just imagine, money that is falling out of a helicopter to the people below. However, it would not be the same in reality. According to Pictet Wealth Management, the ECB could offer money to banks at -1% under a condition that they grant 0% loans to their customers. Some analysts think that it could be a good option amid the present crisis.

Let’s see what the ECB will propose on April 30. Also the ECB press conference will be that day at 15:30 MT that often creates the heavy market volatility. Stay tune and remember:

If the ECB’s monetary policy statement is hawkish than expected, it will push EUR upward.

 

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GBP: April gains undone

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04.05.2020

The GBP/USD currently is testing 1.2390 - that's where it started its April march upwards. In other words, the victories of the previous month are written off for this currency pair. What does it mean?

Analyst comment that May is a seasonally low month for the GBP against the US dollar in particular. The fact that the British pound opened the month in such a weak way probably means that the entire month will be like that for this currency pair, if not further in the same direction. If that's the case, prepare for the GBP/USD to hit the support of 1.2267 very possibly within a week or so. "Risk-off" is a password so far for this currency pair.

 

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Will the GBP advance on a strong BOE policy?

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05.05.2020

The Bank of England gives the interest rate press conference on Thursday at 14:00 MT time.

Instruments to trade: EUR/GBP, GBP/USD, GBP/CAD, GBP/CHF

The last activity from the side of the Bank of England was a unanimous vote to keep the rate unchanged at 0.1% after it was reduced twice in March to respond to the virus damage. The policymakers expressed their commitment to support the economy and maintain a possibly favorable financial climate in the UK. The latter has been fortified by an extensive policy of quantitative easing the Bank has been implementing. Nevertheless, similar to other countries, an increase in unemployment is expected in line with economic damage in the nearest future. Coupled with Brexit, this period promises to be one of the toughest challenges for the British economy and the Bank of England. We will be looking into the details and subtle messages about the economic outlook in the report of the Bank of England’s policymakers while the rate is expected to stay steady.

If the bank’s message is optimistic, the GBP will rise.
If the bank’s message is not very optimistic, the GBP will fall.

 

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May 2020 forex season trading

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06.05.2020

April seasonal patterns weren’t supposed to work, but somehow they did. Even a strong fundamental issue such as the global recession amid the coronavirus couldn’t overwhelm it. That’s why May seasonal patterns may work as well.

However, it’s better to combine seasonal trading with technical and fundamental analysis. All together they will help you to make a successful trade.
Risk-off currency pairs

There is a good proverb: “Sell in May and go away”. It seems that it’s true for all currencies this month except safe-haven ones such as USD, CHF and JPY that will remain strong. According to Bloomberg, the US dollar index increased in 8 of the past 9 months of May. On average it rose by 1.53% in May over the past decade. Also, CHF should perform greatly in May as it's the strongest month over the past decade for the franc against the US dollar. However, take into account that CHF has been fallen for last 3 years.
Risk-on currency pairs

AUD has recently showed the steady rise, but according to seasonal patterns it’s time to stop it as May is going to be a weak month for the aussie. The average May decline over the past ten years was 2.33%.
Euro

May will be the worst time for EUR/USD, EUR/GBP and EUR/CHF. EUR/USD was decreasing in 8 of the past 9 years. The average May decline was 1.76% over the past decade.
Pound

This month will be disappointing for GBP/USD as the US dollar will be more favorable for investors amid the economic uncertainty. However, EUR should perform worse than GBP, that’s why EUR/GBP can drop.

 

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What drives the market on April 7?

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07.05.2020

The main focus is on the UK as the Bank of England made an announcement this morning. Let’s see what’s happening with the British pound and what else moves the market today.
GBP

The pound surged higher after the BoE had reported that interest rates and quantitative easing would stay unchanged. Previously, the central bank maintained the interest rate at 0.1% and increased its bond-buying program by 200 billion pounds. Moreover, Boris Johnson, the British Prime Minister, promised to start reopening of the economy on Monday. As a result, the market sentiment turned positive and the British pound gained.
CNH, AUD

Surprisingly, Chinese exports rose by 3.5% while analysts expected the 11% drop. However, imports decreased by 14.2%, while only the 10% decline was forecasted. The overall sentiment after the report was positive that the second-largest economy may recover faster than anticipated, and the Chinese yuan jumped. Moreover, the Australian dollar gained on upbeat Chinese export data.
USD

Traders are waiting for tomorrow US unemployment rate, that is expected to be extremely high. Yesterday the ADP report revealed 20.2 million jobs lost that slightly exceeded the expected 20.5 million. That pushed the US dollar up.
Oil

The WTI oil price was growing up and then stopped on the $24 mark. As you remember, OPEC+ started to cut the oil production by 10 million barrels a day starting from May 1. It seems that the oil consumption is slowly recovering with the easing of lockdowns all over the world, but it may take a year to return to the pre-crisis level.

 

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What moves the market on May 8?

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08.05.2020

Yesterday we got a poor data from the USA. There were 3.2 million new jobless claims, less than on the prior week, but more than analysts anticipated. That means, in total, it’s already 33.5 million people lost their jobs during the coronavirus. That’s terrible.

So, today we are waiting for non-farm payrolls at 15.30 MT time. It’s expected the worst ever. That means, Japanese Yen and Swiss Franc can gain against the US dollar today. However, if numbers are in line with expectations –USD could rally. The best you can do is to sell ahead of the report and close before or wait for the numbers to be released, prices to stabilize and see what becomes the real move of the day.

Now EUR/USD gains ahead of critical Non-Farm Payrolls. It recovered from 1.0765 yesterday and rose above 1.0800. There are several resistance levels on the H4. The pair has to rise above 1.0885 to get a chance to rise to 1.0965. Support is at 1.0775.

And now, for the good news, countries made first steps to reopen their economies, based on that, risky assets will continue to recover. The Australian and New Zealand dollars went up because of the encouraging Australian and Chinese trade data.

The pound also climbed. The Bank of England left its bond purchase program and interest rates unchanged, but they are ready to ease further. GBP/USD needs to rise above 1.24 for bulls to regain power.

S&P 500 futures hit their session highs after reports that China and the US had a phone call on trade. The yuan moved up.

Elsewhere, oil is benefiting from the improvement in the risk appetite. Yesterday the were wild price swings as investors weighed supply-and-demand fundamentals against Saudi Arabia’s global price hike.

 

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What do you need to know on May 12?

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12.05.2020

Main movements on the market: risk-off mood strengthened USD, AUD dropped on China’s imports’ ban and Saudi Arabia cut oil production.
USD and stocks ahead of fear of the second wave

Today the market sentiment is quite risk-averse. There are some fears of the second wave of coronavirus infections. On the one hand, it’s awesome for the US dollar and the Japanese yen. On the other hand, it’s terrible for stocks, but not for all of them, the Nasdaq stock gained as biotech is in high need these days. Goldman Sachs expected that S&P 500 can contract by almost 20% in the next three months.
AUD fell under pressure of Chinese import ban

The Australian dollar went down after China had stopped imports of meat from four Australian producers, perhaps, it was the response to the Australian calls the COVID-19 outbreak inquiry.

AUD/USD has been moving up since March 23, but it seemed it takes a pause now. If it breaks through the resistant line at 0.653, it will continue increasing up to 0.667. However, if it crosses the support level at 0.64 it can fall further to the next support at 0.628.

Saudi Arabia announced cut of oil production

Oil stabilized after Saudi Arabia claimed it would reduce output. Saudi Arabia made a decision that it would further slash production, going beyond the OPEC+ agreement. Moreover, there are first signs of recovery of oil demand, that is also beneficial for the oil upper price.

The WTI oil price is slightly above the 50-day moving average. If it is strong enough to break through the 26.00 mark, it will open doors towards the next resistant line at 29. Support is 20.00.

 

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Retail data for the US: down again?

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13.05.2020

The US will publish headline and core retail sales at 15:30 MT time on May 15.

Instruments to trade: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, USD/CHF

While the headline retail sales show the total value, the core indicator excludes sales of automobiles due to their volatility. Based on their data, we may judge the economic activity of a country and the level of consumer spending. During the previous release, both indicators fell significantly. The headline one declined by -8.7% (vs. -8% expected). The core indicator surprised traders positively, though, if we may call it "positive". The indicator fell by "just" -4.5% (vs. the forecast of -4.9%). The pandemic hit US retailers hard as well as the US dollar. The greenback fell to the red zone on the release.Will we see a different outcome this time? There is a little chance that we do, but if that happens the US dollar will be a winner. Remember the simple rules:

• if the actual levels of indicators are higher than the forecasts, the USD will rise;

• if the actual levels of indicators are worse than the forecasts, the USD will fall.

 

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News digest on May 14

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14.05.2020

The market continues to be in a risk-off mode. Time to gain on falling!
AUD dropped on poor unemployment data

Almost 600,000 jobs were lost in April in Australia. Numbers were worse than analysts anticipated. As a result, AUD sank after its strong rally. Let’s look at the daily AUD/USD chart. The price has hit the 100-day moving average already twice. There is a still strong upward trend. However, no way AUD can break out this level soon in such a risk-averse market. If it manages to do it though, it will open doors towards 0.6635. Support are at 0.6375 and 0.626.

Trump disagrees with Powell on negative rates

The US president wants rates to go below zero, but Jerome Powell, the Fed chairman, doesn’t even consider this tool. Yesterday Powell claimed that outlook is dire and there are downside risks ahead. He thinks extra government spending will prevent the country from the long-term recession. The Fed also began buying exchange-traded funds to supply more money to the market and discussed additional aids. USD surged as well as JPY.
Stocks are overvalued

Stanley Druckenmiller, a billionaire investor, said that he didn’t remember the time when the risk of holding stocks so outweighed the potential profit. According to him, the market is flooded with liquidity and soon it will contract. Donald Trump, as always, impressed everybody with his straightforwardness.

However, Wall Street analysts don’t think the same. The S&P 500 has dipped this week, and economists expect the further downturn. Most analysts believe the market will be bearish this year.
Oil trades higher

The WTI oil price increased to $25 a barrel. Overall, it’s going up in May. It was caused by the drop in U.S. crude inventories, marking the first decline since January. However, analysts warn that oil prices could go negative again ahead of June contacts expiration.