FOREX - Berita terkini

[kasturi]

President Obama Reportedly Walks Out of Debt-Limit Meeting
2011-07-14 01:01:00

Tensions are rising in ongoing debt-limit talks in Washington, as President Obama reportedly walked out of a contentious meeting earlier tonight.

The clock is ticking, and the pressure is close a debt-limit deal is rising with each passing day. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner has repeatedly declared that August 2nd is the deadline by which the nation's debt ceiling must be raised, or else.

What would happen if the country defaulted on its debt? Nobody really knows for sure, but the general consensus is that such an event could drive the nation (and the world, for that matter) into a recession worse than the one experienced from late 2007 until June of 2009.

The White House is also very likely at stake, as the next presidential election is less than 16 months away. Neither side wants to "lose" this battle with November, 2012 approaching quickly.

To add even more gasoline to the fire, Moody's warned earlier today that they are going to review the country's AAA bond rating because the White House and Congress haven't been able to agree on a deal as of yet.

As mentioned, President Obama reportedly walked out of a debt-limit meeting earlier tonight. According to Politico.com, President Obama "abruptly walked out of a stormy debt-limit meeting" and declared "I'll see you tomorrow". Tensions in the "stormy" meeting escalated thanks to ongoing "sniping" between Obama and House Majority Leader Eric Cantor.

The Republican side has stated that they will only vote for an increase to the nation's debt ceiling if a deficit-debt reduction plan has been agreed to first.


It's almost inconceivable to imagine a scenario in which an agreement isn't reached by August 2nd, but with tensions seemingly boiling over, you just never know what will happen.

 

[arafiee]

Retail Forex

SEC Official Seeks Investor Alert on Retail Forex
Published: Saturday, 16 Jul 2011 | 5:06 AM ET Text Size

A top U.S. securities regulator is calling for a special investor alert to warn retail investors about the risks of trading off-exchange foreign currency contracts.

Luis Aguilar, a commissioner at the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, issued a statement this week expressing concerns about retail forex fraud.

His written statement came after the SEC approved a temporary rule that will allow brokers to continue to sell retail forex contracts to less sophisticated investors until the agency decides whether to implement more robust consumer protection rules prescribed by the Dodd-Frank Wall Street overhaul law.

"I am concerned about the risks to retail investors," he wrote in a statement that explained his vote on the temporary rules.
...

(http://www.cnbc.com/id/43778198)

 

[arafiee]

Retail FOREX

Do you have the heart for foreign exchange trading?
JUL 18, 2011 09:56 EDT

...
Statistics confirm tremendous growth in foreign exchange trading by individuals such as Kalia in the past decade. According to the Bank of International Settlements (BIS), daily volume of foreign exchange trading has nearly quadrupled since 2001, from $1.2 trillion in 2001 to just below $4 trillion today. “That’s more than all the stock market volume combined on a daily basis, and that goes back to how liquid the currency market is,” says Brian Dolan, the chief currency strategist at FOREX.com and the co-author of “Currency Trading for Dummies.”
...
But it’s much more debatable to what extent currency belongs in the average investor’s portfolio, how trades should transpire — and who should execute them. Insiders stress that mapping the peaks and valleys of pounds and dollars is not for hobbyists, but well-equipped pros.
...
Meanwhile, online trading platforms have exploded. According to FXWeek.com, Citi FX Pro enjoyed more than 10-fold growth in monthly trading volume between July 2009 and July 2010, a period during which it set up operations in Singapore and the United Kingdom. With as little as $10,000, users can set up non-collateralized accounts and trade on margin. FOREX.com also has brokerages worldwide, and you can even try out currency trading with a free account that has $50,000 virtual cash. Other players include TradeStation and Zecco (which uses FOREX’s platform, a practice known as “white labeling”).
...
(http://blogs.reuters.com/reuters-mo...-have-the-heart-for-foreign-exchange-trading/)

 

[arafiee]

Eur !!!!

News ..................

(1)Europe's big debt deal leaves plenty of room for worry:-?
By Ben Rooney @CNNMoney July 22, 2011: 4:29 PM ET

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- The European Union this week took the boldest step yet to stabilize Greece and contain the threat of a broader debt crisis in the euro zone...

(http://money.cnn.com/2011/07/22/news/international/fitch_greece_default/index.htm)

(2)Meet the EFSF; the Future of the Euro
Fri, Jul 22, 2011EUR
By Barbara Zigah

(eToro Blog) A new and improved European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) was approved yesterday by the European Union’s policymakers, sending the global markets rallying with joy and glee....

(http://www.etoro.net/forex-news/european-focus/eur/meet-the-efsf-the-future-of-the-euro-30138.html)

(3)EURUSD: now that we're here, how long can we stay?:-?
John J Hardy, about 18 hours ago

After yesterday’s fairly explosive reaction to the EU summit, the market is having a look around and deciding if there is any exclamation point to add here to close the week. Perhaps only a US budget deal today could provide one.

(http://www.tradingfloor.com/blogs/fx-update/eurusd-now-that-were-here-how-long-can-we-stay-293394399)



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[arafiee]

Usd eur!!!!!!!!!!!!

America is merely wounded, Europe risks death:-?
By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard5:15PM BST 31 Jul 2011

We have a glimmer of hope. The key indicators of the US money supply are at last firing on all cylinders, a dramatic turn for the better that would normally signal recovery or even a mini-boom within the next six to 12 months.:-?

Needless to say, these are not normal times. The US and EU debt crises are feeding on each other in a dangerous synergy, with fears of a fiscal “sudden stop” in Washington causing global risk aversion and aggravating tremors in the Spanish and Italian bond markets. It is a pre-taste of the “catastrophe” predicted by the Fed’s Ben Bernanke if politicians fail to control their passions.

And yet, data from the St Louis Fed show that America’s M2 money supply grew at a 6.4pc annual rate in the second quarter, accelerating to 12.2pc in June. The compound annual rate of change has exceeded 40pc over recent weeks.

The broader M3 indicator (including large savings deposits) is growing at the optimal rate of around 5pc. #:-SIt has been an uncannily accurate lead indicator at each twist and turn of our economic drama over the past five years, and is telling us now that the Fed’s kindling wood has at last begun to ignite the damp coals of the US financial system. There is no longer a 1930s liquidity trap. We can infer that the housing market may be nearing the end of its deep slump.

The economy is curing itself in time-honoured fashion. Whether this monetary cure will be allowed to run its course depends on politicians in Washington, Berlin, Rome and Madrid.

My recurring nightmare ever since the Western debt edifice began to crumble four years ago is that the denouement would track the events of mid-1931, when leaders failed to reform a destructive fixed exchange system (Gold Standard) and the fuse finally detonated on Europe’s banking system.:-? It was when political blunders turned recession into the Great Depression, and ideology intruded with a vengeance.

(http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/...ica-is-merely-wounded-Europe-risks-death.html)



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[arafiee]

Jpy!!!

News .............

(1)Japan primes markets for forex intervention, monetary easing:-?
By Stanley White and Leika Kihara | Reuters – 2 hrs 59 mins ago

TOKYO (Reuters) - Japan primed markets on Tuesday for currency intervention after the yen tested record highs overnight, signaling it may try to tame the unit with a combination of yen-selling and easier central bank monetary policy.:-?

Even as the yen climbed down from Monday's peaks, verbal intervention by Japanese officials took on a new, more direct tone, suggesting they were increasingly convinced markets needed a nudge to keep the yen at levels the economy could live with.

The yen traded as high as 76.29 per dollar on the EBS platform on Monday, close to its record high in March of 76.25. The currency backed off to around 77.40 on Tuesday.

(http://news.yahoo.com/japan-keeps-markets-alert-possible-intervention-031107584.html)


(2)Yen’s Surge May Wipe Out Japan’s Recovery:-?
By Toru Fujioka and Lily Nonomiya - Aug 2, 2011 8:39 AM GMT+0800

The yen’s biggest monthly advance since 2008 is threatening profits of exporters from Toyota Motor Corp. to Nissan Motor Co., endangering the nation’s rebound from March’s record earthquake.

The currency was at 77.30 per dollar at 9:34 a.m. in Tokyo, 7 percent higher than the 82.59 average that exporters used for profit forecasts in a Bank of Japan survey released last month. Toyota sees a yen stronger than 80 as a brake on growth and Finance Minister Yoshihiko Noda said today the yen is overvalued.

Japan’s “Mr. Yen,” former top currency official Eisuke Sakakibara, forecasts it will climb as high as 75 after already reaching a postwar record of 76.25 in March. With reconstruction efforts bogged down in political wrangling, the yen’s advance may add pressure on Prime Minister Naoto Kan to quit and push the Bank of Japan to inject more money into the economy.:-?

(http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-...-to-wipe-out-japan-s-recovery-from-quake.html)



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[arafiee]

Swiss chf !!!!!

Will the Swiss Central Bank Intervene Again?:-?
Published: Tuesday, 2 Aug 2011 | 7:47 AM ET
By: Carolin Schober
CNBC Correspondent, Zurich

As jittery markets pushed the euro below the 1.10 level against the Swiss franc for the first time ever on Tuesday, the headache for the Swiss National Bank (SNB) over its limited options to fight the strong franc is turning into a chronic migraine.

In an interview with CNBC, David Bloom, global head of foreign exchange at HSBC, warned the Bank of Japan before it makes any possible intervention to rein in the yen, by pointing out that there is absolutely nothing the SNB can do against the strength of the Swiss franc, and that the SNB failed at intervention in 2010.

Bloom’s plain advice, “Beware, if you are planning to intervene in the currency markets, it better succeed,” stands as a reminder of the heavy losses the SNB nursed as a result of massive euro buying in 2010.

On Sunday, Nick Hayek Jr., CEO of Switzerland's Swatch, the world’s biggest watchmaker, called for renewed intervention by the SNB to defend exporters’ margins and the tourism industry’s profits. Hayek Jr., speaking to SonntagsZeitung, said the SNB should vigorously defend a level around 1.35 against the euro [EURCHF= 1.0935 0.0093 (+0.86%) ] and should ignore criticism of book losses.

In 2010, the SNB incurred losses of 21 billion francs after intervening in the currency markets to keep the Swiss franc from rising. Hayek Jr. states he would rather accept higher inflation than witness damaging repercussions of the strong franc on tourism and exports.

While Neil Mellor, FX strategist at BNY Mellon agreed that “FX intervention is certainly the most obvious means of resolving the SNB’s dilemma …,” he pointed out that “capital controls would be a far more effective option in stymieing the CHF’s rise."

Both options, Mellor pointed out, are fraught with enormous political constraints, and a success isn’t guaranteed. “Either way, the SNB may soon have little choice but to grasp one nettle or other should the market continue to make use of the CHF as a haven from risk.”

Since the beginning of the year, the Swiss franc [CHF=X 0.771 0.0067 (+0.88%) ] has risen by more than 16 percent against the dollar and by almost 12 percent against the euro. Second- quarter corporate results in Switzerland have revealed the extent of the damage the Swiss franc has done to companies’ bottom line.

UBS [UBS 15.71 -0.76 (-4.61%) ], Credit Suisse [CS 34.01 -1.54 (-4.33%) ], Swatch and Lonza are just a few of the companies that have felt the pinch from the relentless rise of the franc, which is eating into profits as most of the companies’ revenues are generated outside of Switzerland, but their cost bases are predominantly in Switzerland.

The Swiss economy has been surprisingly resilient to the strength of the Swiss franc, however. The latest PMI data for July was unexpectedly steady and even pointed to a rise in manufacturing activity, despite the rise of the franc. However, the Swiss government recently lowered its growth forecast, stating that further appreciation of the franc will threaten economic growth “to a serious degree." Export data for June showed that exports to the EU fell almost 15 percent year on year.

© 2011 CNBC.com

(http://www.cnbc.com/id/43835518)



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[arafiee]

Jpy !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Intervention hits yen, stocks fall for third day
By Ian Chua | Reuters – 1 hr 51 mins ago

SYDNEY (Reuters) - The yen tumbled on Thursday as Japanese authorities intervened to curb its recent gains, though gold stayed near a record high on uncertainty over whether the European Central Bank would join the fray by resuming bond purchases to fight a crisis of confidence.

A day after the Swiss National Bank unexpectedly cut rates to weaken its currency, the yen skidded around 3.0 percent against the dollar on the back of repeated yen selling by Japan, which fears a stronger yen will impede its economic recovery.

The Bank of Japan later in the day said it would ease policy further to bolster growth, pledging to buy more assets such as stocks and bonds.

The weaker yen buoyed shares of big Japanese exporters, driving the Nikkei share average <.N225> up 0.2 percent, on a day when the rest of the region fell around 1.4 percent, weighed down by worries that the U.S. economy is stalling and may even be in danger of slipping back into recession.

European shares were seen likely to open higher as well, though the focus will be squarely on the outcome of the ECB's policy meeting due at 1145 GMT and ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet's news conference at 1230 GMT.

Interventions by the Swiss and Japanese "may increase pressure on them (the ECB) a little, and indeed on the EU too," said Christopher Gothard, head of FX for Brown Brothers Harriman in Hong Kong.

"The ECB however has been marching to its own tune of concerns about inflation pressures and we don't expect a huge turnaround in posture from them just yet."

The global economic slowdown and debt market turmoil meant the ECB would probably hit the pause button on further interest rate increases, but it might signal a readiness to buy bonds again.

Increased activity by authorities in the past 24 hours to curb gains in what were considered the safest currencies in the G10 has made traders nervous that policymakers were cracking down simultaneously in markets.

The New Zealand dollar dropped further from a 30-year peak set on Monday after the country's finance minister said he preferred the currency to be weaker.

Other Asian authorities were also seen likely to continue intervening to slow gains in their currencies.

"The uncoordinated move risks competitive intervention, especially in Asia," said Andy Ji, Asian currency strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia in Singapore.

The dollar rallied to a high of 79.40 yen, from near 77.00 before the intervention, while the euro surged to 113.36 yen, from around 110.70.
WARY

...

(http://news.yahoo.com/intervention-hits-yen-stocks-fall-third-day-062108410.html)



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[arafiee]

Eur !!!!!!!!!!!!!

Debt crisis: Is this the end for the euro?:-?
By Philip Aldrick, Economics Editor8:00AM BST 07 Aug 2011

Europe's leaders, policymakers and bond vigilantes are engaged in a fatal three-way game of brinkmanship. The showdown will see either careers bite the dust or the end of the euro. Somehow, though, the ultimate price will be paid.

And, with €9bn (£7.8bn) of eurozone government debt held in the bond markets, you need to be brave to bet against the vigilantes.
Last week the euro hit crisis point. Silvio Berlusconi was forced into a shame-faced climbdown over his handling of Italy's economy. A €48bn austerity programme will be front-loaded, asset sales accelerated and the country's outdated labour practices liberalised. The measures will mean the public feels the pain of austerity before Italy's elections in 2013.

Victory for the vigilantes. But victory, too, for the European Central Bank (ECB) and Germany's hardliners who have been pressing Italy to move faster.

Italy has been in the gunsights of the vigilantes since mid-June, shortly after Standard & Poor's put its credit rating on watch. At that point, its benchmark 10-year bond was at 4.8pc and beginning a slow, precipitous climb. First, Berlusconi started an ill-fated game of chicken with the markets – by launching open warfare against his fiscally conservative finance minister Giulio Tremonti.

Tremonti, it seemed, was an obstacle to more electorate-cheering deficit spending. Berlusconi blinked and Tremonti stayed.

...
A funding crisis may have been of Italian making, but it would not be isolated to Italy. The eurozone would have to come to its aid. But Italy is not Greece. Italy's funding requirement this year is larger than the entire stock of Greek debt. It is the third largest sovereign debt market in the world, with €1.8 trillion of outstanding bonds. Rescuing Italy could stretch the eurozone to breaking point. Getting ahead of the markets was therefore vital, to kill the thought before it spread.
...
But then, the ECB joined in the game of brinkmanship. Instead of buying Spanish and Italian debt it bought Portuguese and Irish as rumours circulated that the two bailed-out nations were being rewarded for implementing austerity. It was an almost aggressive challenge to Italy
...
(http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/...Debt-crisis-Is-this-the-end-for-the-euro.html)



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[arafiee]

Usd !!!!!!!

Dollar to Be ‘Discarded’ by World: China Rating Agency:-?
AUGUST 8TH, 2011 09:42 PM · POSTED IN NEWS (IRAQ & WORLD CURRENCY)

Dollar to Be ‘Discarded’ by World: China Rating Agency
Published: Sunday, 7 Aug 2011 | 10:28 AM ET By Ee Sing Wong

News Editor

The man who leads one of China’s top rating agencies says the greenback’s status as the world’s reserve currency is set to wane as the world’s most powerful policy makers convene to examine the implication of S&P’s decision to strip the United States of its triple “A” rating.

The United States “should get a clear understanding that the continuous decline of the debt service capability will inevitably result in the outbreak of a sovereign debt crisis.”

Guan Jianzhong
Chairman, Dagong Global Credit Rating

In comments emailed to CNBC, Guan Jianzhong, chairman of Dagong Global Credit Rating, said the currency is “gradually discarded by the world,” and the “process will be irreversible.”

Dagong made headlines last week when it became “A+” to “A” after policymakers in Washington failed to act in a timely manner to lift its debt celing.

However, the announcement failed to register in the markets as investors have yet to decide whether to take the Beijing-based company seriously.the first rating agency to cut its U.S. credit rating from

“It has been around for quite a while, but I do not know of anyone assigning risk assessment to thir portfolio according to Dagong,” said Steen Jakobsen, chief economist at Saxo Bank. “However, clearly the rating industry could do with some competition and deviance from firm beliefs.”

But Guan’s observation—made just before S&P slashed its ratings on the world’s biggest economy—now seems strangely prescient.
“I think the most pressing issue facing the U.S. at the moment is to reflect on the crisis which happened in relation with the debt ceiling,” Guan said. “They should get a clear understanding that the continuous decline of the debt service capability will inevitably result in the outbreak of a sovereign debt crisis.”

His sentiment is also reflected in a strongly worded editorial published by China’s official Xinhua news agency on Saturday that is widely seen as a thinly-veiled criticism of U.S. fiscal and economic policies from Beijing.

The editorial called for “international supervision over the issue of U.S. dollars” and the introduction of “a new, stable and secured global reserve currency.”

It also noted that as its largest creditor, Beijing has every right “to demand the United States to address its structural debt problems and ensure the safety of China’s dollar assets.”

(http://theiraqidinar.com/2011/08/08/dollar-to-be-discarded-by-world-china-rating-agency/)



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