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The pounds have found some stability – but Boris Johnson's blame game may send it lower. The PM – hardly one week in office – has said that he was not aiming for a no-deal Brexit but added that it is "very much up to our friends and partners across the Channel." Johnson – that previously refused to meet his European peers unless they agree to reopen the deal stressed that parliament has "thrown out the backstop three times" and that it must be removed out of the Withdrawal Agreement.

GBP/USD has stabilized in the mid-1.2100s but is unable to recapture over 200 pips that it shed early in the week. Markets are currently pricing in a growing chance of a no-deal Brexit. The EU refuses to budge. The latest to comment was Irish PM Leo Varadkar that repeated that the EU is united in its view that the backstop cannot be scrapped.

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Hello guys, happy Wednesday.
Australia reported a better #wage growth data for the second quarter, but the #AUD has failed to pick up a strong bid.

The #AUDUSD pair rose ten pips to hit a session high of 0.6809 immediately after the upbeat data hit the wires and is now trading largely unchanged on the day at 0.6787.

The Australian wage price index rose 0.6% quarter-on-quarter in the second quarter, beating the estimated print of 0.5%. The annualized figure came in at 2.3% as expected.

The #RBA expects higher wages to lead to higher consumption and inflation, so the better-than-expected wage price index should have put a bid under the AUD.

The Australian currency is not impressed, which indicates the #investors believe the wage growth data is not strong enough to deter the RBA from cutting rates further in the near future.

These fears could be bolstered if China's #RetailSales and #IndustrialProduction data due at 02:00 GMT, prints well below estimates. In that case, the AUD/USD will likely fall toward Tuesday's low of 0.6746.

 

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AUDUSD is trading at 0.6761; the instrument is moving below Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating a descending tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may test the cloud’s downside border at 0.6765 and then resume moving downwards to reach 0.6635. Another signal to confirm further descending movement is the price’s rebounding from the descending channel’s upside border. However, the scenario that implies further decline may be canceled if the price breaks the cloud’s upside border and fixes above 0.6825. In this case, the pair may continue growing towards 0.6905.

NZDUSD is trading at 0.6447; the instrument is moving below Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating a descending tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may test the cloud’s downside border at 0.6455 and then resume moving downwards to reach 0.6315. Another signal to confirm further descending movement is the price’s rebounding from the resistance level. However, the scenario that implies further decline may be canceled if the price breaks the cloud’s upside border and fixes above 0.6525. In this case, the pair may continue growing towards 0.6645.

 

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2019.08.20 #AUDUSD #news #forex
The Australian dollar fell in yesterday's Trading, almost touching the resistance point of 0.6800 at 0.6795. After a tumultuous last week, the AUD is expected to see further volatility with the release of the RBA monetary policy meeting minutes tomorrow midday.
Released 11 times a year, the minutes are a detailed record of the #ReserveBank Board’s most recent meeting. It will provide in-depth insights into the economic conditions that influenced their decision on where to set interest rates.
The #AUDUSD is at 0.6780 nearly. Traders are betting on the Euro to #fall through the psychological level of $1.10 this month as the #ECBprepares a stimulus package amidst the recent global economic downturn. Policy maker Olli Rehn said the package would be “impactful and significant” and would be better for the bank to overshoot than undershoot market expectations.
Furthermore, we can expect to see further short-term volatility as the US-China #TradeWar continues to develop. The temporary license granted to Huawei by the US Commerce department is due to expire today, with expectations that they will extend it another 90 days permitting the Chinese firm to continue to purchase supplies from US companies.
The #EconomicPolicySymposium will be held in Jackson Hole, Wyoming this upcoming Saturday. Attended by central bankers, finance ministers, academics and financial market participants from around the world, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s speech is the highlight of the day as they look for signals of further #RateCuts.
Expected Ranges
AUD/USD: 0.6715 - 0.6820

 

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Hello friends! Happy new week!
#WeekAhead #forex
Several economic reports will be released in this week.
(GMT time zone)

Monday
08:00 German IFO (EUR)
German #IFO business confidence is expected to spike higher at 97.1 after it fell back to 95.7 in the July reading from 97.4 and is now at levels last seen in 2013. The Ifo services reading already fell back 10 points this year to 17.7 in July from 27.8 in December last year. Trade and construction sectors are clearly less optimistic than at the end of 2018.

12:30 Durable Goods (USD)
Durable goods orders are expected to rise 0.2% in July, after a 1.9% figure in June. Transportation orders should rise 0.5%. Boeing orders rose to 31 from 9 in June, with continued weakness due to the hit from problems with the Boeing 737 Max that has prompted buyers to delay new purchase commitments. Vehicle assemblies rose to an 11.6 mln pace from 11.5 mln in June. Durable shipments are expected to be flat, and inventories should rise 0.4%. The I/S ratio is expected to tick up to 1.66 from 1.65 in June.

Tuesday
06:00 Gross Domestic Product (EUR)
German Preliminary Q2 GDP growth is expected to remain unchanged, after it contracted -0.1% q/q on August 14. Annual rates looked better than expected and the economy still expanded 0.4% y/y on a working day adjusted basis, but trade tensions and Brexit uncertainty clearly left their mark.

13:00 The US Housing Price Index (MoM) (Jun)

14:00 #CB Consumer Confidence (USD)
The Consumer confidence is expected to ease to 133.0 in August from an 8-month high of 135.7 in July. We see a 169.2 current conditions reading, versus 170.9 in July. The expectations index should fall to 1008.8 in June from 112.2, versus an 18-year high of 115.1 in October. Overall, confidence measures remain historically high.

Wednesday
06:00 GERMAN Gfk Consumer Confidence Survey (Sep)
09:40 German 10-y Bond Auction
23:50 Japan Foreign Bond Investment (Aug 23)

Thursday
12:00 German Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) (Aug)
The German #HICP inflation is jump to 1.3% y/y for August after it was revised down to 1.1% y/y in July.

12:30 US Gross Domestic Product Annualized (Q2)
The preliminary Q2 #GDP growth is expected to trim to 1.9% from 2.1%, with a $6 bln hike in consumption that accompanies a $2 bln boost for nonresidential investment. A downward revisions is expected of -$5 bln for inventories, -$4 bln for exports, -$3 bln for imports, -$8 bln revision for public construction, -$2 bln residential investment, and -$1 bln for equipment spending.

23:30 Japan Tokyo CPI ex Fresh Food (YoY) (Aug)
The country’s main leading indicator of inflation is expected to have slip at 0.7% y/y core in August, and at 0.8% y/y ex Fresh Food. Industrial Production should post a 0.3% grow m/m in July, compared to -3.3% in June.

Friday
09:00 Europe Consumer Price Index - Core (YoY) (Aug)
09:00 Europe Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Aug)
The Euro Area flash #CPI for August is expected to rise slightly, at 1.1% y/y from 1.0% y/y last month. Eurozone Unemployment rate is anticipated steady at 7.5%.

12:30 Canada Gross Domestic Product Annualized (QoQ) (Q2)
Canada’s economy remained sluggish in Q1, with real GDP rising just 0.4% (q/q, saar) after a 0.3% gain in Q4 (revised from 0.4%). The Q1 growth rate was shy of expectations, but it was far from a shocking result as tepid activity was projected as the economy continued to recover from the oil price shock last year. Meanwhile the Q2 release is expected to be released higher at 0.7% q/q from 0.4% gain in Q1 , due to the strong showing from net exports. The monthly trade report revealed a 14.7% gain in export volumes (q/q, saar) following the 4.1% drop reported in the Q1 GDP report.

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#Economics #USD #analysis

#US #TreasuryYield curve continued to invert on Tuesday with the spread between the 10- and two-year yields falling to -5 basis points, the lowest level since 2007.
The inversion, where long-term borrowing costs fall below the short-term ones, is widely considered an advance warning of an #impending#recession. Curve inversions have preceded US recessions of the past 50 years.
Some observers thought the curve inversion is not a reliable indicator anymore. Because the #US #bonds are currently yielding more than their #G7 #counterparts. So, the US bonds, particularly at the long end of the curve, tend to attract #overseas demand.
Also, the recession fears appear overblown as the US consumer is still holding up strong and the labor market is holding tight.
The US #ConferenceBoard said on Tuesday that its consumer confidence index (#CCI) slipped to 135.1 this month from a slightly upwardly revised 135.8 in July. However, the survey’s present situation index rose to 177.2, the highest reading since November 2000.
Further, the Conference Board survey’s labor market differential jumped to 39.4 in August from 33.1 in July, indicating a potential drop in the jobless rate.
So, the recession fears appear overblown as the US consumer is still holding up strong and the labor market is holding tight. #followme #socialtrading
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