FA (meh Bincangkan )

[FanonymousX]

Could the Bank of England hike rates this week?

Recent UK economic data have been surprisingly strong and have raised financial market expectations that the next move in interest rates will be up. Although the MPC voted unanimously to maintain interest rates at 5% in December, there appears a real risk that some members may be swayed by the latest economic figures and could advocate an increase to 5.25% this week.
Although the ECB is widely expected to keep the refi rate at 3.5% on Thursday, the press conference will attract significant market attention as financial markets assess the outlook for policy in 2007. Euro zone economic data have been robust of late and ECB president Trichet could signal further tightening ahead. We forecast interest rates could reach 3.75% by the end of Q1 2007.
After the better than expected US payrolls report last week, the dollar could find further support from economic data this week. The trade deficit, on Wednesday, is forecast to have stayed below $60bn for a second successive month in November, and retail sales are likely to have risen strongly again in December. Our view remains that US interest rates will not be cut in the first half of 2007.

KHAMIS 8:00 malam GBP Interest Rate Statement
KHAMIS 8:45 malam EUR Interest Rate Statement
KHAMIS 9:30MALAM EUR ECB President Trichet Speaks

Interest Rate dinaikkan jika berlakunya Inflasi.Sekian..

 

[blessingINsilent]

er sory menyampuk, kat mane saye bley belajar skit2 pasal money management (mm)

 

[nuriman]

er sory menyampuk, kat mane saye bley belajar skit2 pasal money management (mm)

money management ni, atas masing2.

 

[nuriman]

FA - Fundamental Analysis

Sapa2 ada cara, aku kurang paham FA ni. Apa yg aku paham, ada kaitan dgn news, tapi, camner nak faham news tu?

 

[jutaONEfami]

Sapa2 ada cara, aku kurang paham FA ni. Apa yg aku paham, ada kaitan dgn news, tapi, camner nak faham news tu?

ko boleh refer kat sini.we have a lots of info here
rajin2 kanlah menyelak dan mencari

http://www.carigold.com/portal/forums/forumdisplay.php?f=92

 

[nuriman]

ko boleh refer kat sini.we have a lots of info here
rajin2 kanlah menyelak dan mencari

http://www.carigold.com/portal/forums/forumdisplay.php?f=92

i c,tq bro..

 

[zuljaalaa]

ko pegi baca basic kat babypips.com dulu pastu ko godek godek kat forum forexfactory.com plak.. sana byk info.. pandai pandai la godek.. selamat belajar

 

[nuriman]

ko pegi baca basic kat babypips.com dulu pastu ko godek godek kat forum forexfactory.com plak.. sana byk info.. pandai pandai la godek.. selamat belajar

aku siap korek lagi..hehe..

 

[fairy_abonded]

err neh pendapat aku je kea.. coz aku pun newbie lagi. biasakan diri sebelum membuat any decision in FA nengok dulu correlation market. leh nengok kat sini http://www.mataf.net/en/analysis-correlation.htm

this is the key

If the correlation is high (above 80) and positive then the currencies move in the same way.
If the correlation is high (above 80) and negative then the currencies move in the opposite way.
If the correlation is low (below 60) then the currencies don't move in the same way.

so mungkin sedikit sebanyak membantu untuk mengunjur kedudukan trend selanjutnya.

just my 2 cent and correct me if im wrong.

 

[waktong]

ANALISIS NEWS:

We have 2 reports coming out that can make some significant moves.

1. Tuesday, July 10th, 2007 (4:30 a.m. New York Time) UKFirst, we have a UK trade balance coming out at 4:30 a.m. NY time, and trade balance could be a very important indicator when the nation does not really focus on the inflation. There are periods of time when inflation is stable and the government does not do anything with interest rates for several years. During those times trade indicators start becoming very important but when the inflation is very important - like it is right now - the trade balance takes a backseat and do not make any big moves. However, they do make some moves. The UK trade balance is expected to come out at -6.6 billion, that's visible trade balance, there are three different components of trade balance. If the trade balance comes out at -7.2 billion or more negative, it would be the most negative reading on trade balance since May 2006. I think that could have some effect on the GBP/USD, and it may may go down by 30 pips or more in the first hour of the report. However, if the trade balance comes out at negative -5.999 billion or lower, basically -6 billion or less negative, it would be the highest reading on trade balance since the end of 2005, and it think it would be a nice surprise for the UK, and I think that would be good for the pound short-term so GBP/USD may possibly go up by 30 pics or more in the first hour of the report.

SUMMARY:
* Report: UK Trade Balance
* Sell on GBP/USD if the number will be -7.2 B or more negative
* Buy on GBP/USD if the number will be -5.999 B or less negative* If the trigger is hit, expect 30 pips or more in the first hour of the report.

2. Tuesday, July 10th, 2007 (9:00 a.m. New York Time) CANADAThen, at 9 a.m. NY time, we have Canadian interest rates statement. It is pretty much unanimously expected that Canada will raise interest rates to 4.50%, and if they do it is questionable what will happen because it is fully priced in. I think people will be scrutinizing some of the comments that may accommodate the interest rate decision. If comments are hinting towards possibility of another rate hike this year, Canadian dollar may gain some more strength. However, it the comments are a dovish and the Bank of Canada is saying that they really need to assess the situation after this interest rates statement, I actually think will may see a retracement or move up on USD/CAD and EUR/CAD.

That would be all for Tuesday. There is nothing else I consider important so I hope you have a great day, and I hope we both will make some money on Tuesday. Wait for my next email where I will review what happened and I will talk about Wednesday. Thank you!