FA (meh Bincangkan )

[FanonymousX]

Yen rose across the board

The yen rose across the board on Friday, pulling further away from 2-1/2-month lows hit against the dollar earlier in the week on chatter that the Bank of Japan could bump up interest rates as early as this month.

EURJPY traded between 154.63 and 155.79. USDJPY traded between 118.33 and 119.06.

Crude oil steady above USD 55

U.S. crude oil futures were steady above USD 55 a barrel on Friday, after nearly 9 % losses over the past two sessions prompted by growing U.S. fuel inventories and unusually mild weather in the world's top energy consumer.

U.S. crude for February delivery was down 14 cents at USD 55.45 a barrel on the Globex electronic trading platform. It settled down USD 2.73, or 4.7 % at USD 55.59 on Thursday, the lowest settlement since June 2005.

JEpang roCKs


tonight... dating ngan NFP...gi bergumbira jap

 

[Fisher]

Nonfarm Payrolls:

Key: 50K (buy) 150K (sell) <-- GU
ADP = -40K Forecast = 120K

 

[FanonymousX]

MGGU NI... NEWS PENTING UTK CURRENCY US..


TRADE BALANCE ( RABU - 9.30 MALAM )

lebihan perdagangan adalah ukuran perbezaan diantara nilai hasil dan perkhidmatan oleh export kebangsaan dan nilai hasil dan perkhidmatan oleh import. Perdagangan menunjukkan lebihan jika nilai hasil export melebihi hasil import, pada hakikatnya,
di dalam perdagangan, kekurangan terjadi jika hasil import melebihi hasil export.

5:30 petang
GBP Trade Balance -6.45B -6.33B

9:30 malam
USD Trade Balance -60.0B -58.9B

AYAT BEST
- JIKA EXPORT SESEBUAH NEGARA ITU MELEBIHI IMPORT MAKA KUKUHLAH EKONOMI DAN MATAWANGNYA.


RETAIL SALES ( JUMAAT -9.30 MALAM )


Jualan runcit diukur dari hasil sepenuhnya penjualan dengan menganalisis bekalan runcit semasa. Digunakan sebagai ukuran aktiviti pengguna dan peningkatan bentuk harga akan menunjukkan peningkatan aktiviti ekonomi yg menjurus kepada inflasi.

US RETAIL SALES
FORECAST 0.6% 1.0%

US CORE RETAIL SALES
FORECAST 0.5% 1.1%

US IPI
FORECAST 0.5% 0.2%

AYAT BEST
- KALAU RETAIL SALES MENINGKAT.. EKONOMI SESEBUAH NEGARA MENINGKAT.. MATAWANG MENGUAT.

SEKIAN...

 

[Fisher]

Keep update..
Tak ramai yang berminat pasal FA

 

[flyyayy]

aduh... terase bnyk tuhh... tetibe fano ni layan FA plak... mcm2 adaa...

 

[wan12345]

US Dollar

So far January has proven to be a very positive month for the US dollar. With this morning’s uniformly strong non-farm payrolls report, fundamentals, technicals and seasonality are now all on the dollar’s side. Job growth in the month of December was exceptionally strong, which means that the Goldilocks economy may be here to stay. Not only did the 167k increase in payrolls undermine the reliability of the ADP, Hudson Employment index and Monster.com reports, but payrolls for the prior month were also revised higher for the seventh month in a row. We were most impressed by the strong gain in average hourly earnings, which rose by 0.5 percent and indicate that the strength in the labor market is real. For the time being, this gives the Federal Reserve the justification it needs to keep interest rates on hold at 5.25 percent. As the economy chugs higher while oil prices move lower, there is no reason for the Federal Reserve to rush to change interest rates. In fact, if retail sales also come out stronger next week, we could see a nice rebound in first quarter GDP growth. Retail sales and the trade balance are the only key pieces of data on next week’s calendar. Both of the reports are expected to show weakness compared to the prior month, but like the payrolls report, they have the risk of surprising to the upside. A strong labor market does wonders for the economy by fueling consumer spending. Retailers have suggested that holiday sales were not strong but with consumers forming long lines on a daily basis for Sony and Nintendo’s new gaming consoles, we doubt that spending could have been that weak.

British Pound

With only housing market data due out today, the GBP/USD has fallen victim to overall dollar strength. Over the past 3 trading days, the British pound has fallen by 445 pips. Having been one of the currencies that rallied the most on end of November dollar weakness, it has also been one of the currencies that has fallen the most on dollar strength. House prices also did not help either as they dropped 1.0 percent last month according to Halifax. The market expected prices to rise for 1.0 percent and even though the index can be volatile, the drop has caught the market by surprise since it stands in stark contrast to other housing market reports that have been released as of late. In the week ahead, the UK calendar is very busy. We are expecting retail sales, trade balance, industrial production and the Bank of England rate decision. Like the European Central Bank, the Bank of England is not expected to change interest rates. It should be a non-event however since the Bank of England does not make any comments when they leave their interest rates unchanged.

 

[FanonymousX]

US Dollar

So far January has proven to be a very positive month for the US dollar. With this morning’s uniformly strong non-farm payrolls report, fundamentals, technicals and seasonality are now all on the dollar’s side. Job growth in the month of December was exceptionally strong, which means that the Goldilocks economy may be here to stay. Not only did the 167k increase in payrolls undermine the reliability of the ADP, Hudson Employment index and Monster.com reports, but payrolls for the prior month were also revised higher for the seventh month in a row. We were most impressed by the strong gain in average hourly earnings, which rose by 0.5 percent and indicate that the strength in the labor market is real. For the time being, this gives the Federal Reserve the justification it needs to keep interest rates on hold at 5.25 percent. As the economy chugs higher while oil prices move lower, there is no reason for the Federal Reserve to rush to change interest rates. In fact, if retail sales also come out stronger next week, we could see a nice rebound in first quarter GDP growth. Retail sales and the trade balance are the only key pieces of data on next week’s calendar. Both of the reports are expected to show weakness compared to the prior month, but like the payrolls report, they have the risk of surprising to the upside. A strong labor market does wonders for the economy by fueling consumer spending. Retailers have suggested that holiday sales were not strong but with consumers forming long lines on a daily basis for Sony and Nintendo’s new gaming consoles, we doubt that spending could have been that weak.

British Pound

With only housing market data due out today, the GBP/USD has fallen victim to overall dollar strength. Over the past 3 trading days, the British pound has fallen by 445 pips. Having been one of the currencies that rallied the most on end of November dollar weakness, it has also been one of the currencies that has fallen the most on dollar strength. House prices also did not help either as they dropped 1.0 percent last month according to Halifax. The market expected prices to rise for 1.0 percent and even though the index can be volatile, the drop has caught the market by surprise since it stands in stark contrast to other housing market reports that have been released as of late. In the week ahead, the UK calendar is very busy. We are expecting retail sales, trade balance, industrial production and the Bank of England rate decision. Like the European Central Bank, the Bank of England is not expected to change interest rates. It should be a non-event however since the Bank of England does not make any comments when they leave their interest rates unchanged.

yeah..penganalisis data mengenai analisa pekerja oleh ADP , HUDson dan MOnster tersasar jauh. Then US mengekal kan kadar faedah kerana menyedari xsepatutnya mngubah rate dgn harga minyak semasa yg rendah .. NNti mungkin forecast data RETAILs ngan TraDE balance raises jauh dari yg di ramalkan iaitu decreased... isk,.turun kan lagi GU EU?

 

[FanonymousX]

aduh... terase bnyk tuhh... tetibe fano ni layan FA plak... mcm2 adaa...

sntiasa tamakkan ilmu..he...nnti aku nk blajar wave perisa flyy ngan bro pulak..

 

[egold2u]

Penguatan dollar didorong pertumbuhan tenaga kerja AS

http://www.financeroll.com/articles/valas/12954/

Penguatan dollar didorong pertumbuhan tenaga kerja AS
by Mahdianto Tjahjadi
6 January 2007

Indikasi the Fed tidak akan menurunkan suku bunganya di akhir bulan ini membuat dollar menguat 3 hari berturut-turut terhadap mata uang utama kawasan Eropa

Jakarta,Financeroll.com

Laporan Harga

Pada perdagangan currencies hingga penutupan pasar AS, dollar menguat terhadap beberapa major currencies. Sedangkan rupiah melemah terhadap dollar.

EUR/USD dibuka pada level 1.3084, tertinggi 1.3105, terendah 1.2982 dan terakhir 1.3003.
GBP/USD dibuka pada level 1.9428, tertinggi 1.9443, terendah 1.9262 dan terakhir 1.9299.
USD/JPY dibuka pada level 119.03, tertinggi 119.03, terendah 117.98 dan terakhir 118.65.
USD/CHF dibuka pada level 1.2326, tertinggi 1.2392, terendah 1.2272 dan terakhir 1.2358.
(harga penutupan berdasar dari Milenium Trader).

Ulasan Fundamental

Dollar masih menunjukkan keperkasaannya 3 hari berturut-turut terhadap mata uang utama kawasan Eropa, dibantu oleh data-data ekonomi seperti payroll yang mengindikasikan the Fed masih pada jalurnya untuk tidak menurunkan suku bunganya di akhir bulan ini. Penguatan juga terjadi karena data pengangguran Eropa mengalami penurunan sehingga ancaman inflasi Uni Eropa sedikit tereliminir.

Komentar Minehan sedikit mempertahankan penguatan dollar dimana the Fed masih yakin di 2007 ini pertumbuhan perekonomian AS masih bagus. Sayang Ben Bernanke tidak memberi sinyal-sinyal tentang kebijakan the Fed lebih lanjut sehingga dollar tidak bergerak banyak di akhir-akhir sesi perdagangan.

Turunnya harga emas dan minyak dunia juga mempengaruhi penguatan yen akhir-akhir ini, karena investor kedua komoditi tersebut beralih investasi kedalam bentuk mata uang khususnya yen. Komentar Abe juga membantu penguatan yen terhadap mata uang utama dunia lainnya, dimana kami yakin bahwa penguatan yen disebabkan pihak BoJ akan menaikkan suku bunganya.

Fokus data ekonomi di Senin terdapat unemployment rate Swiss, retail sales Jerman, factory orders Jerman.

Focus mingguan terutama di Rabu terdapat data neraca perdagangan AS, di Kamis seperti ECB & BoE rate.

Ulasan Teknikal

EUR/USD

Pergerakan dengan euro sampai harga penutupan pasar US membentuk pola candle three black crows dengan RSI (41) netral, stochastic (13) oversold dan volume naik menjadi 7602 yang berarti volume mendukung turunnya euro. Pola ini mengindikasikan euro akan reversal karena indicator stochastic berada di area oversold. Apabila pergerakan EUR/USD berhasil menembus level 1.3043, maka beli euro dengan target likuidasi beli euro di area sekitar 1.3100an. Tetapi apabila level 1.2964 dilewati maka jual euro dengan target likuidasi sekitar level 1.2900an.

Resistan:1.3201…1.3153…1.3078

Pivot:1.3030

Support:1.2955…1.2907…1.2832

GBP/USD

Pergerakan dengan poundsterling sampai harga penutupan di pasar US membentuk pola candle three black crows, dan RSI (41) netral, stochastic (8) oversold dan volume naik menjadi 11330 yang berarti volume mendukung poundsterling yang turun. Pola ini mengindikasikan pergerakan GBP/USD akan bullish reversal karena indicator stochastic telah memasuki area oversold. Untuk pergerakan selanjutnya, apabila GBP/USD melewati 1.9321 maka bisa beli sterling dengan target likuidasi di kisaran 1.9370an. Tetapi apabila level 1.9265 di break maka jual sterling dengan target likuidasi di sekitar level 1.9215an.

Resistan:1.9588…1.9515…1.9407

Pivot:1.9334

Support:1.9226…1.9153…1.9045

USD/JPY

Pergerakan dengan USD/JPY sampai penutupan pasar US membentuk pola candle hammer dengan RSI (57) netral, stochastic (54) netral dan volume naik menjadi 6590 mendukung turunnya market. Pola ini menggambarkan bearish USD/JPY akan berakhir dimana stochastic turun dan berada mendekati area oversold dimana ada gerakan konsolidasi, apabila level 118.44 dilewati maka target down dikisaran level 118.10an. Tetapi apabila level 118.84 dilewati maka dollar masih menguat dengan target pada level dikisaran 119.15an.

Resistan:120.17…119.60…119.12

Pivot:118.55

Support:118.07…117.50…117.02

USD/CHF

Pergerakan dengan USD/CHF sampai penutupan pasar US membentuk pola candle three white soldier dengan RSI (61) netral, stochastic (89) overbought dan volume turun menjadi 5101 tidak mendukung naiknya market. Pola ini menggambarkan bahwa swissy akan menguat karena indicator stochastic telah memasuki area overbought dan kemungkinan pasar konsolidasi. Apabila level 1.2324 dilewati maka target penguatan swissy terhadap dollar dikisaran 1.2270an. Tapi swissy bisa tertekan apabila level 1.2381 dilewati dengan target penguatan dollar beraada di kisaran 1.2410an.

Resistan:1.2529…1.2460…1.2409

Pivot:1.2340

Support:1.2289…1.2220…1.2169

([email protected])

(analisa yang lebih detail serta saran transaksi yang jitu, ada di analisa komprehensif)

 

[flyyayy]

sntiasa tamakkan ilmu..he...nnti aku nk blajar wave perisa flyy ngan bro pulak..

aku bukan bro la, lom kawin lagi ponn... aku tak layak ngajo org, sipu beso matobe yg ngajo aku.... tp tak jugak pandai nyer... sian cikgu..