Daily Technical Analysis by XtreamForex

[xtreamforex.com]

Aud/usd bidding higher in asia trading, pushing into 0.7955

AUD/USD BIDDING HIGHER IN ASIA TRADING, PUSHING INTO 0.7955


AUD/USD up on USD selling in Tokyo.
RBA Gov Lowe doesn’t see a rate increase any time soon.
AUD/USD is continuing to climb on thin trading volumes, testing into 0.7955 as of writing.

The pair experienced a choppy Thursday following Wednesday’s Greenback plunge as inflation within the US economy begins to heat up, with month-over-month CPI data beating both previous the previous reading and median market forecasts. The Aussie’s growth in recent days, closing higher against the US Dollar in four of the last five consecutive trading days, owes itself largely to the broad-market selling of the USD rather than any internalities from Australia.

The Reserve Bank of Australia’s Governor, Philip Lowe, appeared before parliament’s Standing Committee on Economics where he reiterated the RBA’s holding pattern in the face of sluggish economic growth and mixed data. With inflation struggling to make a decisive appearance, the RBA has no choice but to hold steady on their monetary easing policies, even as major global competitors are racing to begin tightening their belts and raise interest rates.

Read more : http://www.xtreamacademy.com/forex-news/aud-usd-bidding-higher-asia-trading-pushing-0-7955/

 

[xtreamforex.com]

Usd/jpy – stuck in a 40-pips range

USD/JPY – STUCK IN A 40-PIPS RANGE

Stuck in 106.00-106.40 range.
Risk reversals retrace JPY call bias.
USD/JPY has been restricted to a narrow range of 106.00-106.40 since Friday’s late NY trading and the risk reversals indicate the range could be breached on the higher side.

As of writing, the spot is trading at 106.23, having clocked a high of 106.37 and a low of 106.10. The pair hit a low of 105.55 on Friday before moving back above 106.00 on chart factors (oversold conditions). Also, the options market indicates the premium held by JPY calls (bullish bets) over JPY puts has dropped over the last few days.

The one-month 25 delta risk reversals are being paid at JPY 2.025 calls vs. JPY 2.425 calls on Feb. 12. Also, weekly risk reversals are being paid at JPY 1.53 calls vs. JPY 2.50 calls. The decline in demand for JPY calls (as highlighted by the drop in premium) could be an indication the investors are expecting a corrective rally in the USD/JPY spot.

So, the 40-pip trading range could end with an upside break. That said, the fears of a full-blown trade war between the US and China could keep Yen losses under the check.

Read more : http://www.xtreamacademy.com/forex-news/usd-jpy-stuck-40-pips-range/

 

[xtreamforex.com]

Aud/usd finds bids sub-0.7900, rba minutes, firmer dxy still weigh

AUD/USD FINDS BIDS SUB-0.7900, RBA MINUTES, FIRMER DXY STILL WEIGH

Clings to key support near 0.7890.
USD firmer in thin markets.
RBA talks down AUD strength.
Fresh bids emerged once again near the 0.7890 support area, allowing a tepid bounce in the AUD/USD pair back above the 0.79 handle, as markets assess the minutes of RBA’s January February meeting.

AUD/USD: Focus shifts to Aus construction and wages data

The spot came under fresh selling pressure last hour and fell back below the 0.79 handle, in a delayed reaction to the RBA’s Feb monetary policy meeting minutes, which reiterated that a rising AUD would impede pick-up in economic growth, inflation while adding that Low rates helping reduce unemployment, lift inflation. These RBA headlines suggested that the Australian central bank could very well remain in a wait-and-see mode in the near-term before future rate hikes.

Moreover, a fresh bout of the USD buying across the board, helped by rising Treasury yields, also knocked-off the major in a bid to test the key support. However, the bulls held on to the technical support, now pushing the rates above the 0.7900 levels.

Read more : http://www.xtreamacademy.com/forex-...ub-0-7900-rba-minutes-firmer-dxy-still-weigh/

 

[xtreamforex.com]

Aud/usd falls back down following construction data disappointment

AUD/USD FALLS BACK DOWN FOLLOWING CONSTRUCTION DATA DISAPPOINTMENT

AUD/USD retreats on construction miss.
USD getting a push from bond yields.
AUD/USD has dropped lower again following a pick up in early Tokyo trading, and the pair is currently back down below 0.7880.

The Aussie slipped against the Greenback after a disappointment in the Construction Work Done figures for the 4th quarter of 2017, coming in at a 19.4 contraction, widely missing the median market forecast of a 10% decline, and a deep correction from the previous reading of 16.6%. While Wage Price Index data posted a mild beat over forecasts with year-on-year posting 2.1% versus the anticipated 2%, mixed economic data points for Australia continues to pigeonhole the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) in wait-and-see mode. Headline growth figures for Australia continue to lag behind global trends, and the RBA is left in a holding pattern, unlikely to raise key rates into 2020 while central banks around the world prepare to begin tightening their respective easy fiscal policies and prepare to fight inflation.

Read more : http://www.xtreamacademy.com/forex-...k-following-construction-data-disappointment/

 

[xtreamforex.com]

Nzd/usd claims the 0.73 handle in tokyo

NZD/USD CLAIMS THE 0.73 HANDLE IN TOKYO


The Kiwi breaking upwards in early trading.
Little data for the Kiwi leaves the door open for knock-on volatility.
The NZD/USD is trading up in the Tokyo markets, breaking passed the 0.7300 handle as of writing.

With the NZD slated for a light showing data-wise this week, the NZD/USD’s focus will be driven largely by market sentiment, with the Kiwi currently spiking thanks to knock-on Yen buying to mark the beginning of the week.

Key economic data points for New Zealand were recently revised upwards, but weak points remain within the Kiwi’s economy, and with growth lagging behind global trends, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand is expected to stand pat on rates well into 2020.

Read more : http://www.xtreamacademy.com/forex-news/nzd-usd-claims-0-73-handle-tokyo/

 

[xtreamforex.com]

Usd/jpy flirts with 107.00 handle, risk reversals shed jpy call bias

USD/JPY FLIRTS WITH 107.00 HANDLE, RISK REVERSALS SHED JPY CALL BIAS

Risk reversals show demand for JPY calls (bullish bets) is falling.
Eyes Powell testimony
The USD/JPY pair’s recovery from 106.38 yesterday has left a higher low on the daily chart, indicating a short-term bottom has been made at 105.55 (Feb. 16 low).

Further, the one-month 25 delta risk reversals (JPY1MRR) gauge indicates falling demand for JPY calls (buy Yen). As of writing, the risk reversals are being paid at 1.4 JPY calls vs. 2.4 JPY calls seen on Feb. 12. The drop in the JPY volatility premium (from 2.4 to 1.4) indicates JPY bullish bias has weakened.

The technical setup and the activity in the options market clearly indicate the investors believe the new Fed chair Jerome Powell will remain measured in his first testimony (due later today).

 

[xtreamforex.com]

Aud/jpy stumbles to 83.50 on china pmi miss

AUD/JPY STUMBLES TO 83.50 ON CHINA PMI MISS


The AUD/JPY is dumping on China PMI miss.
Bearish pressure continuing to mount on pair as Aussie loses grip.
The Aussie has fallen against the Yen, giving up the overnight session’s gains and the pair is now trading near the 83.50 handle and still moving jumpy.

A wide miss for Chinese PMI data has sent the Aussie tumbling in Asia markets; Manufacturing and Services PMIs both failed to match up with analyst expectations, and the market saw Manufacturing PMI come in at 50.3 versus the previous 51.3 and Services PMI drop to 54.4 following the previously reported figure of 55.3. The sudden decline in Manufacturing PMI sees the indicator barely holding onto positive territory, which doesn’t bode well for Australia’s largest trading partner, and traders have responded to the weakness by dumping the Aussie.

Australia doesn’t need the help from China right now, as economic data for the island country continues to middle in the face of unsustainable levels of household debt and restrained wage growth. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is stuck in a holding pattern on interest rates, awaiting any signs of improving economic growth, and the RBA has had to leave the door open for the possibility of future easing if things don’t begin to improve.

Read more : http://www.xtreamacademy.com/forex-news/aud-jpy-stumbles-83-50-china-pmi-miss/

 

[xtreamforex.com]

Nzd/usd re-attempts 0.7200 post-upbeat china pmi

NZD/USD RE-ATTEMPTS 0.7200 POST-UPBEAT CHINA PMI


Weighed by rising DXY, at five-week tops.
Losses capped by upbeat Chinese Caixin manufacturing PMI?
Focus shifts to US data and Powell’s testimony.
The NZD/USD pair extended its bearish momentum for the third straight session and went to hit fresh three-week lows at 0.7187 levels amid strengthening demand for the US dollar across the board.

NZD/USD: Supported well above 200-DMA at 0.7167

The spot is seen making minor recovery attempts and looks to regain the 0.72 handle, as the bulls were offered some respite from the unexpected improvement seen in the Chinese manufacturing sector activity, as reported by Caixin earlier today.

China’s Caixin Manufacturing PMI surprises positively in Feb

However, it remains to be seen if the major can sustain the recovery mode, as risk-off sentiment seen across the Asian markets continue to weigh negatively on the higher-yielding currency, the NZD. Meanwhile, the Kiwi tracks the declines in its OZ neighbor, the Aussie, after the Aus capex data disappointing markets.

Read more : http://www.xtreamacademy.com/forex-news/nzd-usd-re-attempts-0-7200-post-upbeat-china-pmi/

 

[xtreamforex.com]

AUD/JPY IS MILDLY BID, BUT COULD REGISTER A 6TH STRAIGHT WEEKLY LOSS

The oversold AUD/JPY is witnessing a minor relief rally in Asia.
Growing trade war concerns and risk aversion in stocks favor the downside in the pair.
The pair is on track for the sixth straight weekly loss.
AUD/JPY, the regional risk barometer, is mildly bid in Asia despite the growing fears of a full-blown global trade war and risk aversion in equities.

As of writing, the cross is trading at 82.46 – up 0.40 percent from the overnight low of 82.16. The minor recovery could be associated with oversold conditions showed by the daily relative strength index (RSI).

Still, the pair look set to end lower for the sixth straight week, given it is trading at least 120 pips below the last week’s close of 83.75. Moreover, a 120 pip rally is easier said than done as Trump’s decision to impose steep tariffs on steel and aluminum imports, escalating tensions with China and other trading partners and rising prospects of higher inflation could keep the equities under pressure.

Read more : http://www.xtreamacademy.com/forex-news/aud-jpy-mildly-bid-register-6th-straight-weekly-loss/

 

[xtreamforex.com]

Nzd/usd sags as caixin pmi slips, nz treasury highlights spare capacity

NZD/USD SAGS AS CAIXIN PMI SLIPS, NZ TREASURY HIGHLIGHTS SPARE CAPACITY

The Kiwi is weakening on softer Asia data.
A thin macro schedule for the week heading into NFP Friday.
The Kiwi is subdued in Monday trading, testing closer to Friday’s low of 0.7218.

The NZD/USD pair heads into the new week fighting the slide, with the Chinese Caixin Services PMI slipping to 54.2, missing the forecast 54.3 after the previous period’s 54.7.

Adding to the Kiwi’s woes is the New Zealand Treasury’s Monthly Economic Indicators (MEI); while the data is mainly positive, several caveats were underlined that hamper any real breakout potential for the NZD/USD pair. The Treasury noted that despite unemployment continuing to drop (down to 4.5% in December) and consumption spending ticking upwards, under-employment remains stable and wage growth remains restrained, highlighting the spare capacity still running through the New Zealand economy.

Read more : http://www.xtreamacademy.com/forex-...-slips-nz-treasury-highlights-spare-capacity/