Daily Technical Analysis by XtreamForex

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BITCOIN AND ETHEREUM PRICE FORECAST – BTC PRICES CONSOLIDATE

The prices are consolidating as the market awaits the next direction

The BTC prices have been consolidating and ranging as we head towards the end of the month. We had mentioned in a couple of forecasts over the last few weeks that the crypto prices had a similar fall in the same period of last year and the great bullish run in the BTC prices began only after this period and it remains to be seen whether it is going to be the same this year as well. The prices have been trading near their support region of the $8500 region over the last couple of days and this shows that there is some accumulation going on. For the bulls, they would hope that this would mean bullish accumulation which would in turn mean that the next bullish leg is around the corner.

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Prices In Range

There has not been much fundamental developments over the weekend for the traders to be worried about or be happy as well and that is also one of the reasons for the consolidation that we are seeing in the prices as of this writing. We expect this sort of consolidation to continue in general, with a bearish tinge, over the next few days as the traders await the tax season to get over and the BTC futures to expire for this month before they launch the prices and begin to buy or sell the BTC according to the trend. Once again, we continue to believe in the bullish trend and we might see the beginning of the next leg pretty soon.

Read more : http://www.xtreamacademy.com/forex-forecast/bitcoin-ethereum-price-forecast-btc-prices-consolidate/

 

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Bitcoin price forecast march 27, 2018, technical analysis

BITCOIN PRICE FORECAST MARCH 27, 2018, TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Bitcoin markets rolled over again during the trading session on Monday, as crypto currency markets continue to roll over and show signs of weakness. By the time the Americans got up, Bitcoin was down 4%.


BTC/USD

Bitcoin markets rolled over during the trading session during the day on Monday, breaking below the $8100 level. I think that the market will go down to the $80,000 level next, and then perhaps down to the $7000 level. The market has been struggling for some time, and currently it looks as if it isn’t going to change anytime soon. Rallies of this point will continue to attract sellers from what I see, and I think that it’s going to take a lot to turn this market around. It’s not until we break above the $10,000 level that I feel the buyers will start to gain the upper hand. The market has been losing volume, and quite frankly far too many retail traders are underwater to get involved again.

Read more : http://www.xtreamacademy.com/forex-f...ical-analysis/

 

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BITCOIN CASH, LITECOIN AND RIPPLE DAILY ANALYSIS – 03/04/18

Bitcoin Cash managed to close out Monday in positive territory, gaining 3.37% to end the day at $662.9, partially reversing Sunday’s 5.98% slide, while bringing to an end 7 consecutive days of losses.

The day was relatively less choppy than in recent weeks, with Bitcoin Cash seeing few sell-offs during the day and more importantly avoided an end of day pullback.

While there will have been some relief from Monday’s gains, Bitcoin Cash failed to touch $700 levels for the first time since the December rally, with an intraday high $686.2 falling short of the day’s first major resistance level of $688.2 and 23.6% FIB Retracement Level of $730.27.

Monday’s gains were certainly not impressive enough to suggest a reversal to the extended bearish trend formed back on 21st March, while an intraday low $636.4 managed to avoid testing the first major support level of $608.4.

Following Monday’s gains, Bitcoin Cash was up 3.58% to $683.9, with investors brushing off an early morning $657 low, as sentiment across the cryptomarket continued to improve off the back of Monday’s gains.

A morning $695 high tested the day’s first major resistance level of $687.27 early, with resistance at the psychological $700 level pinning back any move through to the day’s 23.6% FIB Retracement Level of $730.27.

For the day ahead, a move back through to the morning high $695 would be needed to support a run at the 23.6% FIB Retracement Level, with such a move likely to begin signalling a short-term bullish trend formation that would draw in side lined investors looking to ride out the bearish trend formed on 21st March.

Failure to break through to $700 levels could test investor appetite later in the day and lead to a pullback to this morning’s lows, though we would expect support levels to remain untested today, the key milestone for Bitcoin Cash being to move through to and hold on to $700 levels by the end of the day.

Click Here To Read LITECOIN AND RIPPLE TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

 

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Bitcoin and ethereum price forecast -04/04/2018

The prices have stalled near the $7400 region as expected
The BTC prices have rebounded as expected but they now seem to have hit a wall and again, this is something that we have been forecasting. The region around $7400 was a strong support and the break through this region had led the prices to slide towards the lows of the range below $7000. Now the prices are back in this region but have been finding it difficult to get a way through this region due to the strong selling that we have been seeing. The prices are likely to continue to face some strong resistance for the time being and this is going to be the biggest challenge for the bulls in the short term.

Prices Stall
The bulls need to show purpose and momentum and prove to the rest of the market that the momentum is on their side for them to get convinced and join them. Else, it is likely that the BTC market would be hit with a lot of selling in the short term which would then push the prices lower. If and when the bulls do manage to break through, more traders are likely to join their side and this snowballing effect would help to make the passage to the $7800 region smooth and quick as well. It remains to be seen whether they would be able to make the breakthrough today.

Read More Technical Analysis: Click Here

 

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EUR/USD: SIGNS OF BEARISH EXHAUSTION, TRADE TENSIONS AND POLITICAL UNCERTAINTY LINGERS
The EUR/USD pair created a doji candle last week, indicating bearish exhaustion/that sell-off from the April high of 1.2414 has run out of steam.

Still, it is too early to call a bottom as the pair failed twice to hold above 1.17 on Friday despite receding Italian fears.

Moreover, the trade tensions could be keeping the EUR bulls at bay. Last week, President Trump delivered opening salvo in a global trade by slapping tariffs on European steel and aluminum. The EU has vowed to fight back and so has China and Mexico. The global economy is facing a full-blown trade war as tit-for-tat tariffs have begun.

Further, Nationalists regained control of Catalonia’s government on Saturday and immediately called for independence talks.

Meanwhile, the probability of three more Fed rate hikes this year has gone up after Friday’s strong US non-farm payrolls report.

Hence, the odds are stacked against the EUR bulls. That said, the pay may find acceptance above 1.1723 (23.6% Fib R of 1.2414-1.1510) today if the Eurozone Sentix investor confidence and producer price index better estimates.

EUR/USD Technical Levels

Resistance is seen 1.1723 (23.6% Fib R of 1.2414-1.1510), 1.1757 (4-hour 100MA), 1.1830 (resistance on 4H chart).

Support is located at 1.1618 (support on 4H chart), 1.1554 (July 11 low), 1.1510 (recent low).

 

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Eur/usd price forecast – eur/usd tumbles down

The pair has crashed below the 1.16 resuming the downtrend.

The US dollar bulls show no mercy to EURUSD pair as price movement breaches multiple support levels. The EURUSD pair is currently trading at 1.156 handle following a meltdown post ECB’s updates on central bank policy meet proceedings. Ahead of ECB meet, the pair moved as high as 1.1851 price handle in late European market hours. The central bank mentioned that if incoming data followed its forecasts, then its monthly bond purchase program would be extended through to the final quarter of the year, though at a slower pace. This means the program would likely end in December if the euro zone economy remained resilient. Until now, this quantitative easing (QE) program was scheduled to last until September, carrying monthly purchases of 30 billion Euros ($35 billion) of government and private debt. This will now be reduced to 15 billion Euros during the last three months of 2018.

EURUSD Crashes
Furthermore, the ECB also indicated that a rate hike is unlikely to come before the summer of 2019, again depending on data. However, some market players were hoping to see the first rate hike in June of next year, and not as late as the third or even fourth quarter of next year. As a result, the euro moved lower against the dollar. Nonetheless, ECB President Mario Draghi made it clear that all upcoming decisions would be determined by data. He told reporters in Riga, Latvia, that “the Governing Council concluded after a careful review that progress towards a sustained adjustment in inflation has been substantial so far”.
While USD continues to grow strong against major global counterparts, investors continue to remain cautious as they await news on US President Trump’s meeting with his advisors to discuss levying tariff on Chinese import goods.
On release front, European markets on Thursday saw its major release remain unchanged while US markets saw better than expected outcome, with core retail sales data seeing double the value (0.9%) when compared to previous data (0.4%). In today’s calendar, European market is set to see CPI data while US markets will see Industrial Productions, Michigan consumer expectations and consumer sentiment data. However investors will remain cautious across today’s trading session, monitoring progress of global events and US-China tariff related news before determining what path the pair would take moving forward for month of June 2018.
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Usd/jpy price forecast – dollar rallies on thursday

The US dollar rallied against the Japanese yen during the day on Thursday, showing signs of strength yet again. By pulling back towards the ¥110 level and bouncing the way we have, it signifies that perhaps we are ready to continue the uptrend and make a serious move towards major resistance above.

The US dollar initially pulled back against the Japanese yen during trading on Thursday, reaching towards the ¥110 level. This is obviously a large, round, psychologically significant figure, and an area that has been structurally important more than once. Because of this, it makes sense that we would bounce from there and as the US dollar strengthen after the ECB announcement and press conference, this had a bit of a knock on effect over here as well. Because of this, I think that the market will continue to grind higher, and that short-term pullbacks should be thought of as potential buying opportunities.

I think that ultimately this pair will continue to go higher based upon risk appetite anyway, and of course the interest rate differential that is so stark and contrasted between the United States and Japan. I do recognize that there is a lot of noise extending to the ¥112.50 level, so it’s possible that we may continue to see a lot of back-and-forth. Short-term buying on the dips probably remains the best way to play this market, as I think that the US dollar is getting ready to have a summer of strength again. By doing so, it’s very likely that the market will offer plenty of opportunities for those who are patient enough to wait for value in the greenback. Stick the short-term charts, they could lead the way but also be aware that this pair is typically volatile and very sensitive to risk overall.

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USD/JPY DIGS INTO 110.50 ON SURPRISE JAPAN TRADE BALANCE

The USD/JPY is slipping from Friday’s close following Japanese trade figures, dipping into 110.50 in early Monday trading.

The Dollar-Yen pair rallied into a three-week high last week on a hawkish US Fed that lifted rates, and the central bank is on its way to posting two more rate hikes in 2018. The move also bumped Treasury yields higher, sending the Dollar gaining against the Japanese Yen.

Japanese export growth reached a four-month high in May, with the year-on-year figure coming in at 8.1%, beating the forecast 7.5% while imports hit 14% y/y, clearing the expected 8.2. With both figures jamming higher than expected, the Japanese Trade Balance cut down sharply to a deficit of ¥578.3 billion, a much steeper slide than the expected deficit of ¥-235 billion.

It’s a limited showing on the economic calendar this week for the JPY, though the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will be dropping their latest Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes late Tuesday at 23:50 GMT. With inflation continuing to slump within the Japanese economy, recent hawks within the central bank are likely to be silenced as the BoJ remains firmly planted on its hyper-easy monetary policy path.

USD/JPY levels to watch

As noted by FXStreet’s own Valeria Bednarik, “technical indicators in the mentioned chart have neared overbought readings, partially losing their bullish strength ahead of the weekly close. According to the 4 hours chart and for the shorter term, the upside is also favored as the pair settled above its 100 and 200 SMA, the Momentum indicator resumed its advance after testing its 100 level, while the RSI indicator maintains its bullish slope around 60.”
Read more:http://www.xtreamacademy.com/forex-news

 

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GOLD FELL TO LOWEST LEVEL SINCE DEC. 26, CALLS LOSE VALUE
Gold fell to fresh 2018 low of $1,275 on Friday, having failed to scale the key resistance at $1,302.76 in a convincing manner for three straight weeks.

The sell-off put focus back on the double top reversal seen in mid-May and has opened doors for a drop to $1,240 (double top breakdown target as per the measured height method).

Also, the demand for XAU calls weakened following a drop to 2018 lows, risk reversals indicate.

XAU/USD one-month 25 delta risk reversals fell to 0.40 today – the lowest level since May 23, signaling falling demand or falling implied volatilitypremium for XAU calls.
Read more:http://www.xtreamacademy.com/forex-news

 

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[b]market morning briefing: Aussie has been falling sharply[/b]

STOCKS

Shanghai has fallen breaking crucial 3000 support indicating further bearishness. Nikkei, Nifty and other Asian equity indices could follow soon. Dax and Dow are also trading lower and could also be dragged down in the near to medium term.

Dow (24987.47, -0.41%) and Dax (12834.11, -1.36%) are trading lower. Dow has immediate support near 24750 and while that holds, there is a slight chance of a bounce back to higher levels. A break below 24750 would turn strongly bearish for the medium term. Similar support on the Dax is seen near 12700, which on a downside break would trigger bearishness.

Asian equities have been falling for the last few sessions and are indicative of bearishness for the near term. Nikkei (22482.89, -0.87%) is heading towards our mentioned 22400-22200 target. A break below 22200 would take it to much lower levels in the near term.

Shanghai (2961.78, -1.98%) has led the Asian equities being the first to break immediate support at 3000 and to indicate upcoming bearishness in the overall indices across major currencies. Shanghai is likely to test 2900 in the coming sessions.

Nifty (10799.85, -0.17%) continues to remain stable near 10800. A sharp down move is required to take it lower towards 10600.

COMMODITIES

Brent (74.99) and WTI (65.99) have recovered a bit from the recent fall. WTI may head towards 67 while Brent could test 77 resistance in this week.

Gold (1283.51), if falls below 1275-1270 could open up chances of testing 1250/40 on the downside. For now there could be some stable movement near current levels.

Copper (3.1170) has dipped some more from 3.13 seen yesterday. Looking at the bearishness in Shanghai and Aussie, Copper could also move down in the near to medium term. A break below 3.10 could take it down towards 3.07-3.05 in the coming sessions.

FOREX

Euro (1.1634): As per expectation, Euro has risen towards 1.165 and could test levels near 1.167 in today’s session before dipping towards 1.162 again. Last week the ECB’s decision to keep key rates constant till 2019 summers was perceived to be dovish and led to a fall in the Euro from 1.185 to 1.154.

Dollar Index (94.596): Dollar Index could see a further dip towards 94.5-94.4, followed by a rise back towards 94.6-94.7. This week could see a gradual downmove towards 94.3-94.2, while it stays below resistance near 95.5. Last week, the Euro’s weakness and a strong US Retails Sales data release had led to a rise in the Dollar Index from 93.2 to a high near 95.1.

Dollar Yen (109.87): Dollar Yen has dipped after testing resistance near 110.9 on daily candles. It could see oscillation between 111.0-109.5 in this week and then break below support on daily candles (near 109.5-110.0) ultimately, which could make it bearish towards 107 in the medium term.

Euro Yen (127.84): Euro Yen has been testing crucial horizontal support on weekly line chart near current levels. A week close below this support (near 127) would be crucial for Euro Yen turning bearish towards 124 in the medium term.

Aussie (0.7407) has been falling sharply for quite a few sessions now and has immediate supports near 0.7370 and further down near 0.7325. These are likely to hold in the medium term with some hope of an upward correction in Aussie back towards 0.75. Near term looks bearish but downside could be limited to 0.7325.

Pound (1.3267): As mentioned yesterday, Pound could be bearish towards 1.30 in the medium term. In this week, it could target support near 1.31 on 3 day candles.



US 10 Year (2.88%), 30 Year (3.0173%), 5 Year (2.76%), 2 Year (2.52%):

The US 10 Year yield (2.88%) seems to be sustaining its break of support on medium term chart. Elevated US-China trade tensions might be a reason for a rise in risk-averseness amongst investors. As mentioned yesterday, this downmove might just extend till 2.60%-2.55% in the medium term.

Last week, US Fed had hiked rates by 25 bps. Although the rate hike was expected, the language in the policy statement turned out to bemore hawkish than expected. The likelihood of 2 more rate hikes this year has increased beyond 50% for the first time this year.

US 10 – 2 Year yield Spread (0.36%) continues to stay below long term support near 0.4%. The persistence of this break would suggest an impending slowdown for the US economy.

Last week, the ECB came out with a mixed policy. The end of quantitative easing was expected by the markets – however that was overpowered by its dovish stance on interest rates, which led to a fall in the German 10 Year yield towards 0.4%. On medium term chart, the German 10 Year yield looks bearish towards 0.3%; but for that, it would have to break support on short term chart near 0.4%.
Read more:http://www.xtreamacademy.com/morning-briefing