Daily Technical Analysis by XtreamForex

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NZD/USD OFF 0.7365 SESSION HIGHS FOLLOWING CHINESE PMI DISAPPOINTMENT

Kiwi slips on bad China PMI.
USD gains mild intraday strength on Donald Trump comments during SOTU address
NZD/USD currently trading into the 0.7350 handle, slipping from Asia session highs of 0.7368 following the release of worse-than-expected PMI data from China.

Chinese PMI data(including manufacturing) for the month of January dipped lower to 51.3, falling slightly from 51.6 in the previous month. While contraction isn’t positive, the PMI is still comfortably above the 50-point mark, which acts as the waterline for growth or contraction.

Read more : http://www.xtreamacademy.com/forex-...n-highs-following-chinese-pmi-disappointment/

 

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AUD/JPY – RANGE TRADING CONTINUES


AUD/JPY mildly bid above 88.00.
AUD relatively resilient against USD.
But 88.50-87.70 range still intact.
Currently, AUD/JPY is up 0.14 percent at $88.07, largely due to an uptick in the USD/JPY pair and a flat AUD/USD pair.

The USD/JPY pair is up 0.13 percent seemingly due to the Fed’s upward revision of the inflation outlook. Meanwhile, the Aussie dollar is relatively resilient, despite a big drop in the building permits (reported earlier today). Thus, the AUD / JPY cross is mildly bid in Asia.

That said, the trading range of 88.50-87.70 is still intact. Considering the double top formation around 89.00, the pair will likely end the trading range with a downside break.

Read more : http://www.xtreamacademy.com/forex-news/aud-jpy-range-trading-continues/

 

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AUD/USD HITS FRESH 3.5 WEEK LOW ON DISMAL AUSSIE DATA

AUD hit 3.5 week low of 0.7863.
Aussie Dec retail sales dropped more than expected.
Trade balance record a deficit in Dec.
There appears to be no relief in sight for the Aussie dollar as the currency received negative news on the domestic front amid risk aversion across global financial markets.

Australia retail sales dropped 0.5% in December
Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) reported a 0.5 percent drop in retail sales in December, suggesting consumption remained weak in the all-important festive season. Markets were expecting a 0.2 percent drop. Also, the previous month’s reading was revised higher from 1.2 percent to 1.5 percent.

Further, the trade balance recorded a deficit of AUD 1.36 billion in December compared to the AUD 0.2 billion surplus.

The Aussie dollar, which was already on the back foot, extended the losses to hit a fresh 3.5 week low of 0.7863. The AUD/USD pair was last seen trading at 0.7874 levels. The currency pair could remain flat-lined on account of caution ahead of the RBA rate decision.

Read more : http://www.xtreamacademy.com/forex-news/aud-usd-hits-fresh-3-5-week-low-dismal-aussie-data/

 

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Nzd/usd drifting in tokyo after jobs data beat, trading near 0.7330

NZD/USD DRIFTING IN TOKYO AFTER JOBS DATA BEAT, TRADING NEAR 0.7330


Kiwi slowly leaking back gains from positive data during a quiet Asia session.
Recent risk aversion sparked temporary Dollar popularity, Greenback selling set to continue.
NZD/USD trading doftly down in Asia, near 0.7330 after a good jump minutes before the NY close on a jobs data beat. The Kiwi has appreciated against the US Dollar the past two months as market confidence evaporated for the Greenback, but the recent bout of risk aversion seen in markets has sent the Dollar back up the charts, albeit briefly.

New Zealand’s RBNZ will be publishing their interest rate decision and monetary policy statement today at 20:00, and while the bank is widely expected to stand pat on interest rates for the time being, an overly hawkish tone from the RBNZ could send the Kiwi back up the charts.

Read more : http://www.xtreamacademy.com/forex-news/nzd-usd-drifting-tokyo-jobs-data-beat-trading-near-0-7330/

 

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AUD/USD IS NOT IMPRESSED BY A RISE IN CHINA’S IRON ORE IMPORTS

China iron ore imports increased by 15.7 million tonnes in January.
Yuan-denominated trade surplus narrowed to 135.8 billion.
AUD/USD pays no heed to China data release.
China imported 100 million tonnes of iron ore in January, compared to 84.3 million tonnes in December, customs data show. Arrivals were 94.54 million tonnes in November.

However, the Aussie dollar is not impressed. As of writing, the AUD/USD is trading at 0.7825 – levels seen before the release of China trade data. Iron ore along with copper is one of Australia’s top exports.

A drop in China’s overall trade surplus could be keeping the AUD bulls at bay. Also worth noting is the slight decline in China’s copper imports. The world’s largest consumer of commodities imported 440,000 tonnes of unwrought copper in January, compared to 450,000 tonnes in December.

Looking ahead – the pair could be influenced by the action in the AU-US 10-year bond yield spread. The Aussie dollar could drop below 0.78 if the spread turns negative inversion) and equities see sharp losses.

Read more : http://www.xtreamacademy.com/forex-news/aud-usd-not-impressed-rise-chinas-iron-ore-imports/

 

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Gbp/usd – focus on uk manufacturing and trade data

GBP/USD – FOCUS ON UK MANUFACTURING AND TRADE DATA

BOE’s hawkish tilt favors upside Pound.
Cable could revisit 1.4067 on better-than-expected UK data.
Bank of England’s hawkish tilt pushed the GBP/USD higher to 1.4067 yesterday, however, the risk aversion played a spoilsport and cable fell back to 1.3920.

That said, the British Pound could still put on a stellar performance if the UK data due today betters estimates and the global equity markets regain poise.

The UK manufacturing production is seen rising 0.3 percent m/m in December vs. 0.4 percent in November, while the industrial production is expected to have dropped 0.9 percent m/m. Further, the UK Office for National Statistics will likely report a small drop in the December trade deficit.

Yesterday, the BOE suggested the interest rates could be raised faster than previously indicated. An upbeat UK data would boost expectations of faster rate hikes (as suggested by the BOE) and push GBP/USD back to 1.4067 (previous day’s high).

Read more : http://www.xtreamacademy.com/forex-news/gbp-usd-focus-uk-manufacturing-trade-data/

 

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Gbp/usd poised to continue bull-run after declining into long-term support

GBP/USD POISED TO CONTINUE BULL-RUN AFTER DECLINING INTO LONG-TERM SUPPORT

GBP/USD may be poised to continue pushing higher following a couple of weeks of declines. Sterling is currently trading up softly on thin markets to kick off the new weeks, treading into the 1.3840 region ahead of European markets.

Sterling has suffered at the hands of market sentiment as of late, with pullbacks in equities and spikes in bond yields to multi-year highs sending traders head-first into safe havens at the expense of risk assets such as the British Pound.

Despite recent selling pressure on the Queen’s currency, fundamentals are beginning to look good for the UK, with Prime Minister Theresa May experiencing a bump in polling along with Brexit fears seeming to tame somewhat, even as the British Parliament and leaders within the EU continue to trade barbs back and forth. The Bank of England (BoE) is also upbeat, with a positive outlook on the UK’s economy as economic growth begins to build on itself, causing the BoE to begin hinting at interest rates in the near future.

The Kingdom has a slew of economic data on the docket for Tuesday this week, most notably being CPI data for January at 09:30 GMT. A positive uptick here will only further cement the BoE on a path towards interest rates, with some market forecasts already calling for a May rate increase.

Read more : http://www.xtreamacademy.com/forex-...tinue-bull-run-declining-long-term-support-2/

 

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GBP/JPY LACKING DIRECTION, UK CPI DATA ON THE DOCKET FOR TODAY


GBP/JPY indecisive in Tokyo trading.
UK CPI data due at 09:30 GMT today.
GBP/JPY is stepping lightly in Asia markets, fidgeting around 150.42 following a flat Monday.

The pair has had a rough go of things lately, closing lower or flat for six of the last seven trading days. With the threat of interest rate increases looming on the horizon, traders have been flighty and prone to fits of risk aversion, dumping equities and risk assets in order to pile into safe havens. With the UK showing steady upticks in economic growth and the Bank of England (BoE) preparing to begin tightening their monetary policy, the era of easy money for global markets is set to end, leaving risk appetite in a precarious position.

The UK will be dropping their CPI data today at 09:30 GMT; a slight contraction in price growth is anticipated by market forecasts, with analysts calling for a 2.9% reading compared to the previous 3.0%.

Read more : http://www.xtreamacademy.com/forex-news/gbp-jpy-lacking-direction-uk-cpi-data-docket-today/

 

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Usd/jpy drops in tandem with nikkei, weakest since nov 2016

USD/JPY DROPS IN TANDEM WITH NIKKEI, WEAKEST SINCE NOV 2016


Tracks Nikkei 225, DXY lower.
Profit-taking ahead of the US CPI?
The bears regained control after a brief recovery seen in the USD/JPY pair, now pushing the rates southwards in a bid to print the lowest levels since November 2016.

USD/JPY headed to 107.00

The spot is seen replicating the moves witnessed in Asia a day before, as risk-aversion seeps back into markets, with the Asian equities crumbling again alongside oil prices. Japan’s benchmark index, the Nikkei 225 sinks nearly 0.90% to 21,053 points while Treasury yields dive across the curve, in turn adding to the downslide.

The major also faces a double whammy from broad-based US dollar weakness, as the buck tracks Treasury yields lower amid a sense of caution ahead of the key US CPI figures, which are likely to shape up the Fed’s rate hike outlook this year.

Meanwhile, the JPY markets appear to have shrugged off the disappointment in the details of the Japanese Q4 GDP report, which showed that the preliminary Q4 GDP arrived at 0.1% q/q vs. 0.2% expected.

Read more : http://www.xtreamacademy.com/forex-news/usd-jpy-drops-tandem-nikkei-weakest-since-nov-2016/

 

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Usd/jpy – aso’s comments kill the technical recovery

USD/JPY – ASO’S COMMENTS KILL THE TECHNICAL RECOVERY


Yen regains bid after Aso talks down need for FX intervention.
USD/JPY drops 30 pips from 106.89.
The technical recovery in the USD/JPY pair fell apart at 106.89 as the Japanese Yen picked up a bid after Japanese Finance Minister Aso played down the need for FX intervention.

Speculation has been gathering pace that Yen appreciation may not go down well with the authorities in Tokyo. However, Aso’s comments indicate the policymakers are comfortable with the recent appreciation of the Japanese Yen.

So, for the time being, the JPY bulls have little reason to fear. That said, the technical charts show oversold conditions. The daily RSI has hit the oversold territory. Further, risk reversals have diverged from the spot, indicating a drop in the premium claimed by JPY calls (bullish bets) over JPY puts (bearish bets).

Also, the 10-year treasury yield continues to rise and more importantly the US stock market has remained resilient. Hence, caution is the name of the game for the JPY bulls.

Read more : http://www.xtreamacademy.com/forex-news/usd-jpy-asos-comments-kill-technical-recovery/