radex78
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- Nov 22, 2014
- Messages
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The Australian Dollar retreated due to the strengthening US Dollar.
The AUD/USD pair has shown a bearish trend; although both central banks lean towards a hawkish stance, USD demand has been stronger, driven by safe-haven flows. According to the FXOpen chart, AUD/USD formed a bearish candle on September 24, closing at approximately 0.70086, with a high of 0.70451 and a low of 0.70057.
The RBA has maintained the cash rate at 4.35%, but Governor Michele Bullock noted that core inflation risks remain at 3.6%—above the 2–3% target—and the market anticipates a high probability of a rate hike at the September 29 meeting. This factor could limit the AUD's decline.
Australia added approximately 39,500 jobs in August, well above the expected figure of around 20,000. However, the unemployment rate rose from 4.5% to 4.6%, resulting in mixed data. Employment figures and slowing domestic economic growth limit the RBA's room to raise interest rates more aggressively without disrupting economic activity.
As a commodity-proxy currency, the AUD is highly sensitive to price dynamics in iron ore and copper, as well as the outlook for China's economic recovery. The Xi-Trump meeting is a major focus, as developments in US-China trade relations could influence risk sentiment and China's economic outlook. If the meeting boosts optimism regarding global trade, the AUD could receive a boost; conversely, if new tensions arise, the AUD could come under pressure.
The US Dollar continues to draw strength from market expectations that the Fed will keep interest rates higher for longer to curb inflation. The Fed raised rates by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75%–4.00% on September 16 and signaled that further hikes might be necessary, as inflation is not yet fully under control.
US PCE inflation in July stood at 3.7%, well above the Fed's 2% target. Additionally, the USD has received a boost from safe-haven sentiment. High global geopolitical uncertainty is driving global capital flows back into the USD as a safe-haven currency.
From a technical perspective, AUD/USD has crossed below the 200-day EMA, signaling a bearish outlook. However, this does not yet represent a strong fundamental bearish trend, as expectations of RBA interest rate hikes continue to provide a buffer for the AUD. The projected price range for AUD/USD is 0.69700–0.71400. Immediate support is around 0.70000, with the next target at approximately 0.69800. Immediate resistance is around 0.70500, with the next target at approximately 0.71000. This forecast could be wrong.
AUD/USD D1
On the daily chart, AUDUSD is trading outside the lower Bollinger Band. The bands appear to be expanding, indicating bearish sentiment and high volatility.
The MA50 below the middle band shows an upward channel, yet the price trading below this line indicates a downtrend. The MA200 near the lower band shows an upward channel, suggesting bullish sentiment over the longer term.
The TDI indicator's VB High is at 75, and VB Low is at 40; the 35-point spread reflects the daily volatility level.
The Market Base Line is at 58 with a downward channel, meaning bullish weight exceeds bearish weight, though there is potential for a decline.
The RSI Price Line is at 30 with a downward channel, indicating the downtrend is in oversold territory.
The Trade Signal Line is at 40 with a downward channel, indicating a downtrend.
AUDUSD H4
On the 4-hour chart, AUDUSD is trading near the lower Bollinger Band. The bands appear to be expanding, indicating bearish sentiment and high volatility.
The MA50 above the middle band shows a downward channel, and the price trading well below this line indicates a downtrend. The MA200 below the upper band shows a flattening upward channel, suggesting weakening bullish sentiment over the longer term.
The TDI indicator's VB High is at 56, and VB Low is at 20; the 26-point spread reflects the 4-hour volatility level.
The Market Base Line is at 38 with a downward channel, meaning bearish weight exceeds bullish weight.
The RSI Price Line is at 20 with a flat channel, indicating sideways movement within oversold territory.
The Trade Signal Line is at 22 with a flattening downward channel, indicating a fading downtrend.
The AUD/USD pair has shown a bearish trend; although both central banks lean towards a hawkish stance, USD demand has been stronger, driven by safe-haven flows. According to the FXOpen chart, AUD/USD formed a bearish candle on September 24, closing at approximately 0.70086, with a high of 0.70451 and a low of 0.70057.
The RBA has maintained the cash rate at 4.35%, but Governor Michele Bullock noted that core inflation risks remain at 3.6%—above the 2–3% target—and the market anticipates a high probability of a rate hike at the September 29 meeting. This factor could limit the AUD's decline.
Australia added approximately 39,500 jobs in August, well above the expected figure of around 20,000. However, the unemployment rate rose from 4.5% to 4.6%, resulting in mixed data. Employment figures and slowing domestic economic growth limit the RBA's room to raise interest rates more aggressively without disrupting economic activity.
As a commodity-proxy currency, the AUD is highly sensitive to price dynamics in iron ore and copper, as well as the outlook for China's economic recovery. The Xi-Trump meeting is a major focus, as developments in US-China trade relations could influence risk sentiment and China's economic outlook. If the meeting boosts optimism regarding global trade, the AUD could receive a boost; conversely, if new tensions arise, the AUD could come under pressure.
The US Dollar continues to draw strength from market expectations that the Fed will keep interest rates higher for longer to curb inflation. The Fed raised rates by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75%–4.00% on September 16 and signaled that further hikes might be necessary, as inflation is not yet fully under control.
US PCE inflation in July stood at 3.7%, well above the Fed's 2% target. Additionally, the USD has received a boost from safe-haven sentiment. High global geopolitical uncertainty is driving global capital flows back into the USD as a safe-haven currency.
From a technical perspective, AUD/USD has crossed below the 200-day EMA, signaling a bearish outlook. However, this does not yet represent a strong fundamental bearish trend, as expectations of RBA interest rate hikes continue to provide a buffer for the AUD. The projected price range for AUD/USD is 0.69700–0.71400. Immediate support is around 0.70000, with the next target at approximately 0.69800. Immediate resistance is around 0.70500, with the next target at approximately 0.71000. This forecast could be wrong.
AUD/USD D1
On the daily chart, AUDUSD is trading outside the lower Bollinger Band. The bands appear to be expanding, indicating bearish sentiment and high volatility.
The MA50 below the middle band shows an upward channel, yet the price trading below this line indicates a downtrend. The MA200 near the lower band shows an upward channel, suggesting bullish sentiment over the longer term.
The TDI indicator's VB High is at 75, and VB Low is at 40; the 35-point spread reflects the daily volatility level.
The Market Base Line is at 58 with a downward channel, meaning bullish weight exceeds bearish weight, though there is potential for a decline.
The RSI Price Line is at 30 with a downward channel, indicating the downtrend is in oversold territory.
The Trade Signal Line is at 40 with a downward channel, indicating a downtrend.
AUDUSD H4
On the 4-hour chart, AUDUSD is trading near the lower Bollinger Band. The bands appear to be expanding, indicating bearish sentiment and high volatility.
The MA50 above the middle band shows a downward channel, and the price trading well below this line indicates a downtrend. The MA200 below the upper band shows a flattening upward channel, suggesting weakening bullish sentiment over the longer term.
The TDI indicator's VB High is at 56, and VB Low is at 20; the 26-point spread reflects the 4-hour volatility level.
The Market Base Line is at 38 with a downward channel, meaning bearish weight exceeds bullish weight.
The RSI Price Line is at 20 with a flat channel, indicating sideways movement within oversold territory.
The Trade Signal Line is at 22 with a flattening downward channel, indicating a fading downtrend.
