Daily Analysis Forex Mix

[radex78]

USD/CAD trending slightly bullish amid optimism over US-Iran negotiations

Today's USDCAD price movement is dominated by mild bullish sentiment, with the current price hovering around 1.37785 on the FXOpen chart. The price has drawn a bullish candle with a fairly long body and a short shadow at the top of the candle.

The main factors driving USDCAD price movements today are primarily related to Canadian inflation, geopolitical tensions, and sentiment surrounding today's economic data releases.

The Canadian dollar came under significant selling pressure after the release of Canadian CPI data earlier this week showed softer results, reinforcing market expectations that the BoC would maintain interest rates as inflation is starting to come under control.

The US Dollar Index (DXY) received a boost as a safe-haven asset due to geopolitical tensions in the US-Iran war. Furthermore, the FOMC meeting minutes released midweek showed that Fed officials were in no rush to lower the benchmark interest rate, wanting to ensure inflation truly fell to the 2% target.

Today's market focus is on the release of March/April Canada retail sales data and the producer price index. If Canadian retail sales data is worse than expected, the Canadian dollar could weaken further, pushing the USD/CAD higher. Consensus estimates modest growth in the 0.6% range.

In the US, focus will be on the final University of Michigan (UoM) Consumer Sentiment data, which is expected to be at 48.2, and a speech by Fed Governor Christopher Waller. A hawkish statement from Waller could provide additional fuel for the USD.

Latest updates on the US-Iran war. Iran is reviewing the latest US proposal to de-escalate the conflict. Regional mediation efforts are underway, including involving regional countries. The ceasefire remains in effect, but there have been occasional accusations of violations and limited incidents. The oil market remains highly sensitive, with prices falling briefly on hopes of peace, but uncertainty keeps volatility high.

The situation remains extremely tense as both sides trade threats. Trump warned that if a deal fails in the next few days, the US is ready to launch a military strike. The IRGC has threatened to expand the war beyond the Middle East if they are attacked again.

Technically, USDCAD is attempting to maintain its position above the 50-day moving average (MA). The USDCAD's reasonable range is estimated to be around 0.36600 to 1.38300. Immediate support is around 1.3722, with the next target at 1.36600. Immediate resistance is around 1.38000, with the next target at around 1.38300. This forecast could be wrong.

USDCAD D1

On the daily timeframe, USDCAD is currently near the upper band line. The Bollinger Bands are drawing an ascending channel with widening band spacing, indicating bullish sentiment and rising volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) between the middle and upper bands draws an ascending channel, with the price above the line indicating an uptrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) above the upper band draws a flat channel, indicating sideways movement over the longer term.

The TDI indicator's VB High is at 62, and its VB Low is at 31. The 31-point difference reflects the volatility value on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line is at 46 with a descending channel, indicating a greater weighting of bears than bulls.

The RSI Price Line is at 63 with an ascending channel crossing the MBL from below, indicating an uptrend.

The Trade Signal Line is at 59 with an ascending channel, indicating an uptrend.

USDCAD H4

The Canadian dollar is currently near the upper band line on the H4 timeframe. The Bollinger Bands draw an ascending channel with moderate band spacing, indicating bullish sentiment and moderate volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) near the lower band draws an ascending channel, with prices well above the line, indicating an uptrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) below the lower band draws a descending channel, indicating bearish sentiment over the longer term.

The TDI indicator's VB High is at 72, and its VB Low is at 52. The 20-point difference reflects the volatility value on the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base Line is at 62 with a flat channel, indicating a greater weighting of bullish sentiment than bearish sentiment.

The RSI Price Line is at 60 with a slightly curved channel to the downside, indicating a downtrend reversal.

The Trade Signal Line is at 60 with an ascending channel, indicating an uptrend.

 

[radex78]

XAG/USD Amidst Geopolitical Sentiment and US Monetary Policy

Silver prices are trending neutral to mildly bullish today, with geopolitical sentiment and pressure from US interest rates still hampering silver. The latest spot price is around 75.44 on the FXOpen chart after a correction from its highest level.

The biggest pressure on silver currently comes from shifting market expectations regarding the Fed's interest rate policy. The latest release of the FOMC minutes showed that central bank officials remain hawkish, due to high US inflation at 4.6%, driven by surging oil prices. Because silver is a non-yielding asset, sustained high interest rates or the potential for further increases make the opportunity cost of holding silver more expensive, triggering a sell-off from its peak.

Silver price fluctuations in recent days have been highly sensitive to tensions in the Middle East. The postponement of planned US airstrikes and reports of continued diplomatic discussions with Iran temporarily dampened demand for the US dollar as a safe-haven currency. However, the still-stalled negotiations regarding the nuclear program and the Strait of Hormuz have kept the market prepared for sudden risks.

According to recent reports, the US and Iran are nearing an initial framework for a deal, including the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and a 60-day temporary ceasefire to allow for more detailed negotiations.

The biggest obstacle remains Iran's nuclear program. Conflicting reports have emerged, with some US officials claiming progress on uranium, while Iranian sources say no agreement has been reached on the surrender of its stockpile of highly enriched uranium.

Domestically, both countries are also facing internal criticism. In the US, there is criticism from those who consider the agreement too lenient, while in Iran, there are concerns that the concessions are too large.

In terms of the industrial supply-demand gap, despite macro-monetary pressures, silver's physical fundamentals remain strong. According to the Silver Institute, the solar panel and electric vehicle component industries will continue to record demand through 2026. Meanwhile, global mining output has experienced consecutive supply deficits, providing a strong floor for further silver declines.

Technically, the XAGUSD price is consolidating below the 50- and 100-day moving averages (MAs), but remains well above the 200-day moving average (MA), which projects long-term sentiment.

Silver price movement is expected to remain within a reasonable range of around $74.00 to $77.50. Investors will be wary of US economic data releases and the Fed's statement throughout the New York session, as silver's volatility is currently more aggressive than gold's. The nearest support is around $73.10, with the next target around $70.00. The nearest resistance is around $77.00, with the next target around $81.20. This forecast could be wrong.

XAGUSD D1

The silver price on the daily timeframe is below the middle band line. The Bollinger Bands draw a flat channel with wide band spacing, indicating range movement and high volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) near the middle band draws a flat channel, and the price is below the 50-day moving average (MA), indicating a weak downtrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) below the lower band draws an ascending channel, indicating bullish sentiment over the longer term.

The VB High TDI indicator is at 63, and the VB Low is at 38. The 25-point difference reflects the volatility value on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line is at 51 with a flat channel, indicating a greater bullish bias than bearish bias.

The RSI Price Line is at 47 with a channel sloping upwards, indicating an uptrend.

The Trade Signal Line is at 48, with a descending channel crossing the MBL from above, indicating a downtrend.

XAGUSD H4

On the H4 timeframe, the silver price is near the middle band line. The Bollinger Bands draw a flat channel with narrow band spacing, indicating range movement and low volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) above the upper band draws a bearish channel, while the price is below the line, indicating a downtrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) near the upper band draws a flat channel, indicating sideways movement over a longer period.

The TDI indicator's VB High is pointing at 50, and its VB Low is pointing at 25. The 25-point difference reflects the volatility value on the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base Line is pointing at 38 with a flat channel, indicating a greater weighting of bears than bulls.

The RSI Price Line is pointing at 44 with a flat channel, indicating sideways movement.

The Trade Signal Line is pointing at 46 with a flat channel, indicating sideways movement.

 

[radex78]

NZD/USD at the crossroads of global sentiment and monetary policy

The Kiwi (the NZD) traded within a narrow range between 0.58623 and 0.58817 on May 25, 2026. The price formed a Doji candlestick, with the opening and closing prices only a few pips apart. The NZD/USD price is currently hovering around 0.58720 on the FXOpen chart, moving below the middle band line.

Today's price movement of the NZD/USD commodity currency demonstrates an interesting dynamic, as the pair sits at the crossroads of global sentiment and preparations for a crucial domestic monetary policy announcement.

Global markets are currently in a wait-and-see mode ahead of the RBNZ's interest rate announcement tomorrow afternoon. The RBNZ is expected to maintain its benchmark interest rate at 2.25%, but the market is anticipating a very hawkish statement. Relatively high inflation expectations and global energy prices have led the market to project a 25-basis-point rate hike in July at nearly 80%-90%.

The NZD gained additional positive sentiment from domestic data. The release of April's trade balance data showed a record-high surplus due to solid export growth. This provided a cushion for the NZD amidst slowing domestic economic momentum.

Commodity currencies like the NZD typically benefit from improving global market risk appetite. This was fueled by optimism that a peace deal between the US and Iran is nearing completion, which could reopen the Strait of Hormuz. This easing of safe-haven tensions has eased buying pressure on the USD.

Nevertheless, the USD remains relatively resilient as the market still considers the possibility that the Fed will not rush to cut interest rates anytime soon, keeping US yields attractive.

Technically, the NZD/USD pair is just above the 50-day moving average (EMA) on the daily chart, and the RSI is in the 48-day range, reflecting limited upward momentum before any new catalysts emerge.

The NZD/USD pair is expected to move within a reasonable range of 0.58000 to 0.5970. The nearest support is around 0.5830, with the next target around 0.5810. The nearest resistance is around 0.5885, with the next target around 0.5910. This forecast could be wrong.

NZDUSD D1

On the daily timeframe, NZDUSD is below the middle band line. The Bollinger Bands draw a flat channel with wide band spacing, indicating range movement and high volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) is between the middle and lower bands, drawing a flat channel; the price is above the line, indicating an uptrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) is below the 50-day moving average (MA), drawing a flat channel, indicating sideways movement over a longer period.

The TDI indicator's VB High is at 62, and its VB Low is at 44. The 18-point difference reflects the volatility value on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line is at 53 with a flat channel, indicating a greater weighting of bullish sentiment than bearish sentiment.

The RSI Price Line is at 48 with a channel sloping upwards, indicating an uptrend.

The Trade Signal Line is at 46 with a flat channel, indicating sideways movement.

NZDUSD H4

On the H4 timeframe, NZDUSD is just above the middle band line. The Bollinger Bands draw an ascending channel with narrowing band spacing, indicating bullish sentiment and decreasing volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) directly below the price draws a descending channel, indicating bearish sentiment is being suppressed by the recent uptrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) above the upper band draws an ascending channel, indicating bullish sentiment over the longer term.

The VB High TDI indicator is at 59, and the VB Low is at 32. The 37-point difference indicates volatility on the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base Line is at 48 within an ascending channel, indicating bearishness outweighs bullishness and potential upside.

The RSI Price Line is at 53 with a descending channel crossing the TSL from above, indicating a downtrend.

The Trade Signal Line is at 54 within an ascending channel, indicating an uptrend.

 

[radex78]

USD/JPY Breaks Through 159.00, Wary of Intervention

The current USD/JPY price movement is generally bullish, with the price breaking above the psychological level of 159.00. The price at the time of writing was 159.313 on the FXOpen chart, drawing a long-bodied bullish candle with almost no shadow.

Several key macroeconomic factors related to the safe-haven USD/JPY currency pair are currently driving the movement. Recent data showed the Bank of Japan's new core inflation metric jumped to 2.8%, above its 2% target. Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino took a hawkish stance and stated that the current benchmark interest rate of 0.75% should be raised to a more appropriate level to maintain market confidence. Market participants now estimate there is an approximately 80% probability of the Bank of Japan raising the interest rate to 1.0% at its June 15-16 meeting.

Despite rising Japanese inflation, the yen failed to strengthen due to external factors. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East triggered a rise in oil prices, which widened Japan's trade deficit, fundamentally weakening the Yen.

On the other hand, the US dollar strengthened amid geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran. Global uncertainty and concerns about renewed inflation due to energy prices made the US dollar sought after as a safe-haven asset. This triggered a broad-based strengthening of the dollar against other major currencies, including the Yen.

The Fed's monetary policy, which tends to keep its benchmark interest rate high, supported the strengthening of the USD. Comments from several Fed officials indicated that if inflation is contained or rises again due to a surge in commodity prices, such as oil, due to geopolitical tensions, the option of a single interest rate hike remains open in the second half of the year, although this is not the main scenario.

US economic data, such as the Non-farm Payrolls (NFP) and consumer spending, have proven more resilient than expected. This strong economic condition gives the Fed room to be patient and focus on combating the risk of new inflation without worrying about triggering a recession in the near future.

As long as the Fed maintains a higher rate for longer, global capital flows will flow more into the USD in search of higher yields. This will fuel USDJPY's push to test the 159.00-160.00 area.

On the one hand, the weakening JPY will be a focus for BoJ officials. If the price reaches the psychological level of 160.00, the market will be wary of the possibility of Japanese intervention, which could cause a sudden weakening of the USD.

USDJPY is expected to move within a reasonable range of 155.00 to 160.00. The nearest support is around 158.24, with the next support target around 155.47. The nearest resistance is around 159.60, with the next target around 160.00. This forecast could be wrong.

USDJPY D1

On the daily timeframe, USDJPY is currently between the middle and upper band lines. The Bollinger Bands draw a flat channel with wide slanted bands, indicating range movement and high volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) above the middle band draws a flat channel, with the price just above the line, indicating an uptrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) below the lower band draws an upward channel, indicating bullish sentiment over the longer term.

The TDI indicator's VB High is at 61, and its VB Low is at 39. The 25-point difference reflects the volatility value on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line is at 50 with a flat channel, indicating price movement is in a neutral channel.

The RSI Price Line is at 56 with a flat channel, indicating sideways movement.

The Trade Signal Line is at 55 with a sloping upward channel, indicating a fading uptrend.

USDJPY H4

On the H4 timeframe, the USDJPY price movement is near the upper band line. The Bollinger Band squeeze that appears on this timeframe indicates sideways movement with low volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) below the middle band draws an ascending channel; prices above the line indicate an uptrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) below the lower band draws a flat channel, indicating sideways movement over the longer term.

The TDI indicator's VB High indicator is at 69, and its VB Low indicator is at 47. The 22-point difference reflects the volatility value on the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base Line is at 58 with a horizontal channel, indicating a greater weighting of bullishness than bearishness.

The RSI Price Line is at 66 with an ascending channel crossing the MBL from below, indicating an uptrend.

The Trade Signal Line is at 58 with an ascending channel, indicating an uptrend.

 

[radex78]

USD/CAD Extends Gains, Targets 1.39000

The USD/CAD commodity currency pair is showing interesting dynamics with a mild bullish trend. The last candlestick drew a long-bodied bullish candle with a slight shadow at the top of the candle. The price reached a high of 1.38518 on the FXOpen chart, targeting the 1.39000 resistance level.

The weakening Canadian dollar was due to the strengthening of the USD and pressure on the CAD due to weakening oil prices and US-Canada trade concerns.

The USD remains relatively strong as the market begins to reduce expectations of a Fed rate cut. Several Fed officials remain hawkish due to the risk of energy inflation and geopolitical tensions. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the USD's performance against six major currencies, is currently at 99.215, slightly up from its previous low of 98.915.

The Canadian dollar is under pressure due to a sharp drop in oil prices following the emergence of the possibility of a de-escalation of the US-Iran conflict. The CAD is highly sensitive to oil prices as Canada is a major energy exporter. WTI oil prices have fallen to a low of 86.82 due to expectations of an easing of the conflict and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz to commercial trade.

The market is also concerned about the US-Mexico-Canada USMCA negotiations, which are increasing pressure on the Canadian dollar. The Bank of Canada (BoC) is expected to remain dovish and likely hold interest rates at its next meeting as Canadian economic growth begins to slow.

Today's market focus is primarily on the release of US economic data. First-quarter GDP is expected to grow 2.1% compared to the previous period's 0.5%. If the actual data is strong, it could boost the USD. The Core PCE Price Index is projected to reach 3.3%. A higher-than-expected figure will reduce the likelihood of an interest rate cut in the near future. Unemployment claims will also be monitored by the market to gauge labor market resilience.

Technically, USDCAD is above its 50-day moving average (MA), indicating that buyers still hold short-term control. USDCAD is estimated to be in a reasonable price range of around 1.37100 to 1.38900. Immediate support is around 1.37800, with the next target around 1.37200. Immediate resistance is around 1.38500, with the next target around 1.39000. This forecast could be incorrect.

USDCAD D1

On the daily timeframe, the Canadian dollar is moving near the upper band line. The Bollinger Bands are drawing an ascending channel with widening band spacing, indicating bullish sentiment and increasing volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) above the middle band is drawing a slightly ascending channel, with the price well above the line, indicating an uptrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) below the upper band is drawing a flat channel, indicating sideways movement over the longer term.

The TDI indicator's VB High is at 67, and its VB Low is at 29. The 38-point difference reflects the volatility value on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line is at 48 with a flat channel, indicating a greater weighting of bears than bulls.

The RSI Price Line is at 70 with an ascending channel, indicating an uptrend in the overbought zone.

The Trade Signal Line is at 66 with an ascending channel, indicating an uptrend.

USDCAD H4

USDCAD is near the upper band line on the H4 timeframe. The Bollinger Bands are drawing an ascending channel with relatively narrow band spacing, indicating bullish sentiment with moderate volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) is below the lower band, drawing an ascending channel, while the price is above the line, indicating an uptrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) is well below the lower band, drawing a slightly descending channel, indicating weak bearish sentiment over the longer term.

The TDI indicator's VB High is at 71, and its VB Low is at 54. The 17-point difference reflects the volatility values on the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base Line is at 63 with a flat channel, indicating a greater weighting of bullish sentiment than bearish sentiment.

The RSI Price Line is at 70 with an ascending channel, indicating an uptrend in the overbought zone.

The Trade Signal Line is at 65 with an ascending channel, indicating an uptrend.

 

[radex78]

WTI oil prices fluctuate amid sentiment about peace diplomacy and military escalation on the ground

The global crude oil price (XTI/USD), or WTI, has fluctuated significantly this week due to the intense tension between hopes for peace and military escalation on the ground. US Crude oil prices have fallen to a low of $86.33 from a previous peak of around $104.56. WTI oil prices are now hovering around $87.97 on the FXOpen chart, drawing a doji candlestick reflecting the tug-of-war between buyers and sellers.

The current oil price movement is driven purely by the risk premium for a US-Iran war and supply chain dynamics in the Strait of Hormuz, beyond US domestic economic data.

WTI oil prices previously surged sharply, triggered by the IRGC's retaliatory attack on a US military base. This was in response to a previous US airstrike near Bandar Abbas that destroyed an Iranian missile site and minesweeper.

Oil prices then plummeted 5.5% to a six-week low after Axios and US Secretary of State Antony Blinken/Marco Rubio confirmed the existence of a draft peace deal awaiting President Donald Trump's final approval.

Meanwhile, US inventory data, based on the latest weekly report, showed that US commercial crude oil inventories fell by -3.327 million barrels, slightly above market expectations of -3.620 million barrels. This significant decline also occurred at the key Cushing storage hub, which dropped -2.794 million barrels. This decline in stocks structurally supports oil prices remaining high above the psychological level of $85.

The latest update on the US-Iran conflict indicates that the conflict is not yet fully resolved. Iran attacked US military bases in the Gulf in retaliation for the latest US attack. Meanwhile, the US is increasing pressure and sanctions on Iranian shipping authorities. However, international mediators are still trying to push for a temporary peace agreement and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

Despite these peace efforts, the market currently perceives the risk of open war as not yet gone. This causes oil prices to tend to rise rapidly and fall rapidly when new rumors emerge.

A recent report from the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) stated that the US has fired over 1,000 Tomahawk missiles and hundreds of THAAD/Patriot interceptors during this war. The US will need at least until 2029-2030 to restore its advanced weapons stockpile, putting political pressure on the White House to quickly finalize a peace deal.

WTI oil prices are projected to be volatile today, with a reasonable range between $86.10 and $94.50. The nearest support is around $87.00, with the next target around $86.00. The nearest resistance is around $92.00, with the next target around $94.50. This forecast could be wrong.

XTIUSD D1

The US Crude oil price is currently near the lower band on the daily timeframe. The Bollinger Bands are drawing a downward-curving channel with wide band spacing, indicating bearish sentiment and high volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) is below the middle band, drawing a horizontal channel, with the price below the line indicating a downtrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) is well below the lower band, drawing an upward channel, indicating bullish sentiment over the longer term.

The TDI indicator's VB High is at 62, and its VB Low is at 41. The 21-point difference reflects the volatility value on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line is at 51 with a downward channel, indicating bullishness outweighs bearishness, suggesting a potential downside.

The RSI Price Line is at 39, with a downward channel crossing the MBL from above, indicating a downtrend.

The Trade Signal Line is at 45, with a downward channel crossing the MBL from above, indicating a downtrend.

XTIUSD H4

On the H4 timeframe, WTI oil is near the lower band. The Bollinger Bands draw a new, flat channel with slightly narrowed band spacing, indicating sideways movement and slightly decreasing volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) above the upper band draws a descending channel, with the price well below the line, indicating a downtrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) directly below the 50-day moving average (MA) draws a flat channel, indicating sideways movement over a longer period.

The TDI indicator's VB High is at 48, and its VB Low is at 28. The 20-point difference reflects the volatility value on the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base Line is at 37 with a new, flat channel, indicating a greater weighting of bears than bulls.

The RSI Price Line is at 35 with a downward-curving channel, indicating a downtrend.

The Trade Signal Line is at 27 with an ascending channel, indicating an uptrend.

 

[radex78]

Silver Prices in a Healthy Consolidation Phase, $75-$76 Range

Silver prices have shown interesting movement after a strong surge to around $89 some time ago. Silver prices are currently consolidating and undergoing a fair correction in the $75-$76 per troy ounce range. The FXOpen chart shows silver prices over the past two weeks hovering between $71 and $78, consolidating near the middle band.

Silver price movements are currently influenced by the tug-of-war between three main factors: geopolitical conditions, US inflation, Fed policy, and industrial demand.

Global markets are currently responding positively to news of a 60-day ceasefire extension between the US and Iran, including the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. This has triggered a sell-off in traditional safe-haven assets like the USD and limited the precious metal's short-term rally, as investors tend to shift to riskier assets.

THE US PCE Index data last month showed inflation accelerating at its fastest pace in three years. This has fueled speculation that the Fed could raise interest rates in late 2026 or early 2027. Because silver offers no yield, this speculation of high interest rates has weighed on the bullish momentum for silver.

Industrial demand for silver remains strong from solar panels, electric vehicles, electronics, and AI manufacturing. Meanwhile, global silver supply remains relatively tight compared to long-term demand. The structural imbalance between tight mining supply and high global green industry demand has kept silver's long-term foundation solid this year.

This week, traders' primary focus will be on US employment data and service/manufacturing sector activity, which could influence Fed interest rate expectations and directly impact the USD and precious metals like silver. Traders will primarily focus on Friday's Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP), which often impacts financial markets. Current market consensus estimates May employment growth of around 75,000-115,000 new jobs, with the unemployment rate expected to remain around 4.3%.

Silver price movements are sensitive to the performance of the USD. The US Dollar Index (DXY) fell slightly to 98.942 last Friday, causing silver prices to fluctuate in the short term.

Silver prices are projected to remain within a reasonable range of around $70 to $86.50. Nearest support is around $72, with the next target around $70. Immediate resistance is around $78, with the next target around $81.50. This forecast could be wrong.

XAGUSD D1

On the daily timeframe, silver is moving just below the middle band line. The Bollinger Bands are drawing a flat channel with wide band spacing, indicating ranging movement and high volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) just below the middle band is drawing a flat channel, with the price within the line, indicating sideways movement. The 200-day moving average (MA) below the lower band is drawing an upward channel, indicating bullish sentiment over the longer term.

The VB High TDI indicator is pointing at 63, and the VB Low is pointing at 38. The 25-point difference reflects the volatility value on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line is pointing at 51 with a flat channel, indicating a greater weighting of bullish sentiment than bearish sentiment.

The RSI Price Line is pointing at 46 with a flat channel, indicating sideways movement.

The Trade Signal Line is pointing at 47 with a flat channel, indicating sideways movement.

XAGUSD H4

On the H4 timeframe, silver is just above the middle band. The Bollinger Bands are drawing a flat channel with relatively wide band spacing, indicating range movement and moderate volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) is just above the middle band, drawing a horizontal channel, with the price within the line, indicating sideways movement. The 200-day moving average (MA) above the upper band draws a horizontal channel, indicating sideways movement over a longer period.

The TDI indicator's VB High is at 60, and its VB Low is at 33. The 27-point difference reflects the volatility value on the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base Line is at 48 with a horizontal channel, indicating a greater weighting of bearishness than bullishness.

The RSI Price Line is at 48 with a horizontal channel, indicating sideways movement.

The Trade Signal Line is at 50 with a horizontal channel, indicating sideways movement.

 

[radex78]

GBP/JPY Bullish Amidst Monetary Policy Clashes and Geopolitical Sentiment

GBP/JPY has currently risen to its highest peak of 214.999 since May 2026. The pair is in a bullish phase but remains vulnerable to a correction as the market weighs two key factors: relatively high UK interest rates and the potential for a Japanese interest rate hike in the coming months, alongside geopolitical sentiment in the Middle East.

The Bank of Japan currently maintains its interest rate at 0.75%. However, Japan's first-quarter GDP growth surged strongly by 0.5% year-on-year, driven by resilient domestic consumption and exports. This data gives the BoJ the green light to tighten.

BoJ Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino emphasized that Japan's real interest rates remain very low. The BoJ is committed to raising its benchmark interest rate at its June 16 meeting to curb inflation stemming from the Middle East conflict, which has driven up global oil prices.

The Japanese Ministry of Finance recently confirmed a record-breaking foreign exchange intervention to stem the JPY's decline. The USD/JPY psychological level near 160 makes the market wary of sudden selling in cross-currency pairs like GBP/JPY if JPY strengthens.

Due to global geopolitical conflict, the UK is facing another energy price shock. Ofgem recently announced a 5% increase in electricity price ceilings and a 24% increase in gas prices, effective July. This situation has sparked concerns that UK inflation will spike again.

KPMG cut its 2026 UK economic growth forecast to just 0.8%, down from 1.4% the previous year. This energy shock puts the Bank of England (BoE) in a tight spot. On the one hand, they must raise interest rates to combat inflation, but on the other hand, the domestic economy is weakening.

Although the Business Confidence Index improved to -53 in May from -64 previously, the majority of business owners remain deeply concerned about the high tax burden and the global economic slowdown.

This week, the market will also be watching NFP and CPI data, the BoJ meeting in mid-June, developments in oil prices, and the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, which will affect Japanese inflation.

The GBPJPY intraday range forecast is around 214.00-216.00. Immediate support is around 214.00, with the next target around 213.00. Immediate resistance is around 215.20, with the next target around 216.00. This forecast could be incorrect.

GBPJPY D1

On the daily timeframe, GBPJPY is near the upper band line. The Bollinger Bands draw an ascending channel with wide band spacing, indicating bullish sentiment and high volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) near the middle band draws an ascending channel; prices above the line indicate an uptrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) is well below the lower band, drawing an ascending channel, indicating bullish sentiment over the longer term.

The VB High TDI indicator is pointing at 66, and the VB Low is pointing at 40. The 26-point difference reflects the volatility value on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line is pointing at 53 with a descending channel, indicating bullish sentiment outweighs bearish sentiment, suggesting a potential downturn.

The RSI Price Line is pointing at 58 with an ascending channel crossing the MBL from the downside, indicating an uptrend.

The Trade Signal Line is pointing at 55 with an ascending channel crossing the MBL from the downside, indicating an uptrend.

GBPJPY H4

On the H4 timeframe, GBPJPY is below the upper band line. The Bollinger Bands draw an ascending channel with wide band spacing, indicating bullish sentiment and increased volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) below the middle band draws an upward channel; prices above the line indicate an uptrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) directly below the 50-day moving average (MA) draws a horizontal channel, indicating sideways movement over the longer term.

The TDI indicator's VB High is pointing at 70, and its VB Low is pointing at 42. The 28-point difference reflects the volatility value on the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base Line is pointing at 56 with a flat channel, indicating a greater bullish bias than bearish bias.

The RSI Price Line is pointing at 60 with a downward-curving channel, indicating a downtrend transition.

The Trade Signal Line is pointing at 60 with an upward-curving channel, indicating an uptrend.

 

[radex78]

USD/JPY Climbs Towards the Crucial 160.00 Level

The safe-haven USD/JPY currency pair is showing bullish sentiment towards the crucial 160.00 level. Overall, current sentiment remains dominated by the strength of the US dollar, but is limited by the risk of currency intervention by the Japanese government. The current price is 159.933 on the FXOpen chart, nearly approaching the previous peak of 160.723, which then fell to a low of 155.549.

The market is currently monitoring the USD/JPY price movement, which is generally influenced by three main factors: the BoJ's dilemma due to energy pressures, the resilience of the US dollar, and the risk of intervention at the psychological level of 160.00.

The Japanese economy actually grew quite resiliently in the first quarter, at 0.5%. The market also expects the BoJ to raise its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points at its June 15-16 meeting. However, the surge in global energy prices due to current geopolitical tensions is weighing heavily on Japan, as an energy importer. This worsened Japan's trade balance and continued to pressure the JPY.

Meanwhile, the US dollar remained strong, driven by solid economic growth, one factor supported by massive investment in global AI infrastructure. The still-high US bond yields compared to Japanese bonds have led market players to choose to hold USD over JPY for carry trades.

However, there is a risk of intervention by the Japanese government at the crucial 160.00 level. Because the price is currently very close to this psychological level, the market is becoming extra cautious. This level is a psychological barrier where the Japanese Ministry of Finance and the Bank of Japan typically intervene suddenly by injecting billions of dollars to rescue the Yen. This has made USD/JPY buyers cautious about pushing the price higher before the release of important US data.

Technically, the price is currently above the 50-day moving average (MA), indicating maintained bullish momentum, approaching the upper band line, which appears to be expanding.

Today, the market will shift its focus to the important, high-impact US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change for May, which measures the estimated number of job additions in the private sector. If the actual figure is higher than expected, it tends to support USD strength. Another important data item is the ISM Services PMI, which measures the level of purchasing managers' activity in the service sector.

The forecasted fair price range for USDJPY is around $158.00 to $180.00. Immediate support is around 159.20, with the next target around 158.80. Immediate resistance is around 159.80, with the next target around 160.50. This forecast could be wrong.

USDJPY D1

On the daily timeframe, USDJPY is below the upper band line. The Bollinger Bands draw a flat channel with wide band spacing, indicating range movement and high volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) is above the middle band with a flat channel; prices above the line indicate bullish momentum. The 200-day moving average (MA) is below the lower band, drawing an ascending channel, indicating bullish sentiment over the longer term.

The VB High TDI indicator is pointing at 63, and the VB Low is pointing at 39. The 24-point difference reflects the volatility value on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base line is pointing at 51 with a flat channel, indicating a greater weighting of bullishness over bearishness.

The RSI Price Line is pointing at 61 with an ascending channel, indicating an uptrend.

The Trade Signal Line is pointing at 58 with an ascending channel, indicating an uptrend.

USDJPY H4

On the H4 timeframe, USDJPY is currently within the upper band. The Bollinger Bands are drawing an ascending channel with slightly wider band spacing, indicating bullish sentiment and increased volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) below the middle band draws an ascending channel, with the price above the line indicating bullish momentum. The 200-day moving average (MA) below the lower band draws a flat channel, indicating sideways movement over the longer term.

The TDI indicator's VB High is at 78, and its VB Low is at 48. The 30-point difference reflects the volatility value on the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base Line is at 63 within an ascending channel, indicating bullishness outweighs bearishness.

The RSI Price Line is at 76 within an ascending channel, indicating an overbought uptrend.

The Trade Signal Line is at 74 within an ascending channel, indicating an uptrend.

 

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AUD/USD falls after weaker-than-expected GDP release

The AUD/USD currency pair fell to the 0.71233 price area from the 0.71807 range. The price drew a long-bodied bearish candle with almost no shadow. The current price is at 0.71277 on the FXOpen chart, just above the 50-day moving average (MA).

The dynamics of the AUD/USD movement attracted sellers due to slowing Australian domestic economic data and market anticipation of US employment data. The Aussie currency faced selling pressure following the release of Q1 GDP data.

Australian economic growth was only 0.3%, below market expectations of 0.55%. Annually, Australia's economic growth remained at 2.5%. Interestingly, this slight growth was supported by massive investment in the data center sector. Without this investment, the Australian economy is at risk of contraction.

Australian inflation remains around 3.4%, supporting the RBA's hawkish stance. Weak economic growth and household spending make it more likely the RBA will hold interest rates rather than raise them again in the near future.

Regarding the USD, the DXY is currently rising to 99.530 from a low of 98.751, implying stability within a relatively narrow consolidation range.

The market is closely monitoring developments in US-Iran negotiations for a peaceful solution and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. This positive progress is gradually reducing demand for the USD as a safe-haven.

Investors are currently adjusting their positions ahead of tomorrow's Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data. Given the solid JOLTS job openings data earlier this week, the market is speculating that the Fed, under the new leadership of Kevin Warsh, will remain cautious and not rush to cut interest rates. This maintains the foundation of the USD's strength.

Australia relies heavily on Chinese demand for commodities in international trade. Concerns about slowing Chinese growth due to high energy costs and weak manufacturing activity are hindering the AUD's strength.

Technically, AUDUSD is currently just above its 50-day moving average (MA), with a reasonable price range forecast between 0.70750 and 0.72000. Nearest support is around 0.71000, with the next target around 0.7075. The nearest resistance is around 0.7155, with the next target at around 0.7180. This forecast could be incorrect.

AUDUSD D1

The AUDUSD price movement on the daily timeframe is currently between the lower and middle band lines. The Bollinger Bands draw a flat channel with wide band spacing, indicating range movement with high volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) above the lower band draws a slightly ascending channel, acting as a dynamic support area for AUDUSD. The 200-day moving average (MA) is well below the lower band, drawing an ascending channel, indicating bullish sentiment over the longer term.

The TDI indicator's VB High is pointing at 66, and its VB Low is pointing at 44. The 22-point difference reflects the volatility value on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line is pointing at 55 within a descending channel, indicating bullishness outweighs bearishness and potential downside.

The RSI Price Line is pointing at 45 within a descending channel, indicating a downtrend.

The Trade Signal Line is pointing at 49 within a flat channel, indicating sideways movement.

AUDUSD H4

On the H4 timeframe, AUDUSD is outside the lower band. The Bollinger Bands are expanding, with the upper and lower bands moving apart, indicating increased volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) below the middle band draws a flat channel; prices below the line indicate a downtrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) above the middle band draws a flat channel, indicating sideways movement over a longer term.

The VB High TDI indicator is at 64, and the VB Low is at 34. The 30-point difference reflects the volatility value on the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base Line is at 49 with a descending channel, indicating a greater weighting of bears than bulls.

The RSI Price Line is at 33 with a descending channel crossing the MBL from above, indicating a downtrend.

The Trade Signal Line is at 42 with a descending channel crossing the MBL from above, indicating a downtrend.